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Which is why it’s great that so many Americans are now leasing EVs.

The new way to buy an electric car is not to buy one at all.
Just three years ago, four out of five EV drivers had financed their car or paid in cash, while only 21% had leased the EV, according to data from TransUnion. But by the second quarter of this year, leasing had become the top choice: 48.7% of people leased their new electric vehicle versus 34.7 percent who financed and 16.6% who paid in cash.
That’s a sea change in the way people shop for EVs, and it could be great news for the electric car market — just think of all the gently used cars that will flood the market when those leases end.
There are numerous factors behind leasing’s ascendance, starting with money matters. Electric cars still cost more than fossil fuel-burners, but the monthly payment on a lease is almost always less than what you’d pay per month to finance the full cost of a vehicle. In that way, leasing brings EVs within reach for budget-minded drivers — Joseph Yoon, consumer insights analyst at Edmunds, recently told me there are great leasing deals aplenty on EVs because dealers want to move them off the lots.
A tweak to the federal tax credits helped, too. It got more complicated to buy an EV outright this year after the government restricted the benefits to vehicles with a minimum amount of domestic manufacturing. But the same rules don’t apply to leased vehicles, giving those who lease an EV the option to get a discount on a car that wouldn’t necessarily be eligible if they financed it.
There are other hypotheses about the rising popularity of the lease. A bigwig at one of the credit bureaus told InsideEVs that leasing reflects buyers’ comfort with the subscription model that has taken over our economy at large. The data also shows that the total number of first-time lessees has actually declined a little since 2019, which suggests to me that perhaps a lot of people who always lease their vehicles decided over the past few years that it was time to go for an EV.
Leasing is also simply an attractive choice given the current state of electric vehicle offerings. Most of today’s most popular models haven’t been on the road long enough to tell us much about how they’ll age — or what might go wrong when they’re eight or 10 or 12 years old. Lease-holders don’t have to worry about any of that. They need not worry about the battery range inevitably fading, either.
For this reason I’ve begun, from time to time, to second-guess my own decision to buy my EV. Rather than watching its battery diminish as the years go by, I could have leased it, returned it after three years, and gotten into a cool new EV that didn’t exist when I bought mine. Then again, I’m closing in on the last monthly payment rather than being locked into the cycle of forever payments that comes with leasing. So I got that going for me, which is nice.
The jump in leasing is having a clear impact on the shape of the electric vehicle market, where carmakers in the U.S., in particular, are still having trouble putting out affordable EVs that buyers want. Luxury buyers, on the other hand, have always favored leases as a way to keep themselves in a shiny, new-ish car, and to avoid the unpleasant experience of owning an out-of-warranty BMW, Mercedes-Benz, or Audi. Around 90% of those three companies’ EVs are leased, a number that has helped the Germany luxury brands get a foothold in the electric car market (especially considering the staggering MSRPs of most of their electric offerings).
And then there’s what happens to all those leased vehicles. Once a typical three-year agreement expires, its driver must give back the vehicle to the dealership, presumably in the undamaged, low-mileage condition that’s specified in the terms of the lease. From there, the vehicle goes on to start its second life as someone else’s brand new used car — which is why it’s good news that lots of people are leasing EVs.
While leasing is one way to work around the high sticker prices of EVs, buying used is another. Used vehicles have long been a better deal because somebody else suffered the financial penalty of buying a new car and seeing its value plummet the moment they drove it off the lot. (In fact, what you’re really paying for when you lease a car is the severe depreciation it undergoes during its first few years of life. The dealership has to get that money from lease customers because they’ll get much less for the vehicle when it returns from its lease as a three-year-old and they resell it as a used car.)
The used EV market, though, hasn’t been particularly robust to date. For one thing, there just aren’t that many vehicles on the market since EV sales really only took off in the past few years. Further limiting supply are the plummeting prices of used EVs, which appear to be depreciating much faster than gasoline cars or hybrids. Since owners would recoup so little from selling their EVs, more of them are hanging onto their cars.
That’s why the rise in leased EVs could be good news for everyone else. In a few years, all of those electric vehicles will return to the lot where many will become gently used, certified pre-owned cars that sell for much less than new vehicles. And though the fate of the federal tax credits after this year’s election are uncertain, used EVs currently also qualify for a tax break.
Used electric vehicles have their own set of concerns. Their drivers won’t enjoy the full driving range that the battery offered when new. They’ll be responsible for the longer-term repairs if they want to keep the car running indefinitely. But used EVs with 80% or 90% of their original range are plenty useful, and given those prices and tax breaks, they’re a steal, too. And with a lot of leased EVs soon to enter the secondary market, you might even be able to find one.
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Investors are piling into startups that promise to solve hard problems using little energy. But that doesn’t meant the answer is ‘yes.’
Physicists have spent decades trying to apply the laws of quantum mechanics to the physical world in the form of quantum computers, devices that promise to solve some of the hardest problems in biology, chemistry, and materials science at unfathomable speed. Many experts say this technology is finally on the cusp of commercial viability. Physicists and software engineers are understandably excited. But so, too, is another group that might raise eyebrows: climate investors.
Investment in quantum startups rose to $12.6 billion in 2025, six times the prior year’s total, according to McKinsey. The consultancy forecasts that the technology could drive up to $2.7 trillion in economic value by 2035 as it spurs efficiency and revenue gains across sectors. Climate tech venture capitalists understandably want a piece of that pie.
Examples abound. Lowercarbon Capital participated in the quantum startup Oratomic’s gigantic $300 million Series A, announced earlier this month. Just a few months prior, Breakthrough Energy Ventures led quantum pioneer Sygaldry’s $139 million Series A, which also included participation from Singapore-based climate-focused investor Earth Venture Capital. And earlier this year, Planet First Partners led a $200 million later-stage round for quantum company Photonic Inc., now valued at over $2 billion.
They’re hardly the first VCs to argue that the worlds of quantum and climate are closer than they might initially appear. Prelude Ventures has backed Atom Computing since its 2018 seed round, all the way through its $100 million Series C last month, while Berlin-based VC World Fund has supported IQM Quantum Computers — which went public via SPAC about three weeks ago — since 2022. All say that quantum computers will be dramatically more energy efficient than today’s so-called “classical computers,” reducing costs and electricity usage across applications ranging from artificial intelligence workloads and transportation logistics to power grid optimization.
That advantage stems from the fundamental nature of the system’s architecture. The physics is extraordinarily complex, but the basic idea is that unlike a standard computer, which encodes information as zeros and ones, quantum computers rely on units called “qubits.” Rather than representing a single binary value, qubits can “be both a zero and a one, or any state in between at the same time,” Idalia Friedson, Sygaldry’s co-founder, told me.
That mind-bending proposition totally changes the way computers problem-solve. Rather than sequentially testing one possible solution after another, quantum computers can evaluate many possibilities simultaneously, hopefully allowing them to solve challenges such as molecular simulation, materials discovery, and drug design exponentially faster than is currently possible.
This tech won’t replace today’s computers, which experts told me will almost certainly remain more practical for everyday tasks such as browsing the internet, making spreadsheets, and word processing. Rather, the future of computing will likely be a hybrid in which classical computers handle the bulk of the work while quantum computers address specific, complex problems.
For its part, Sygaldry is building quantum-powered AI servers that can plug directly into existing data center infrastructure, combining quantum processors with classical chips in the same machine to expedite both model training and inference. The startup is also unique in its effort to combine multiple types of qubits — yes, there is more than one kind — within the same system, matching each qubit type to the problem it’s best suited to solve.
“You can create a qubit by using photons, which are actually like light particles, by trapping ions, by creating artificial atoms,” Friedson told me, explaining that each type has its pros and cons. “Some are fast, some are less expensive, some are more manufacturable or scalable. But by and large, no single type of qubit meets all of the characteristics needed for commercial high-performance computing.” Thus, Sygaldry is taking a mix-and-match approach, pairing different types of qubits with the AI workloads they’re best adapted to handle, ultimately aiming to extract more from our existing data center infrastructure and curb the AI boom’s runaway energy demands.
But as with all breakthroughs that promise faster, better, cheaper AI, the spectre of Jevon’s paradox looms large. This is the observation that as technologies become more efficient and cheaper, total resource consumption often rises rather than falls as lower costs spur demand.
When I asked BEV’s Christian Garcia, who led the firm’s investment in Sygaldry, about whether he worries that quantum companies could contribute to an uptick in overall AI energy demand, he told me it seemed a little outside his remit. “I almost feel like it’s a question for a philosopher to answer,” he said, explaining that he has no way of knowing what the advanced computing industry will look like decades down the line. Instead, he’s focused on the shorter-term problem companies like Sygaldry purport to solve: Grid bottlenecks are constraining AI growth.
“Even as algorithms get more efficient, and even as GPUs get more efficient, the demand for tokens is outstripping the ability to bring power online,” Garcia explained. “And so we view investing in new computing platforms as a way to solve power challenges in a lot of ways, and I think that’s bread and butter for us.”
Mark Cupta, the Prelude investor who has backed Atom Computing since 2018, expressed a similar sentiment. “Regardless of what [quantum computing] is used for, it will use less energy as a baseline,” he told me. “Could it discover great things? Yes. Could it also break things? Absolutely. We’ve gotten comfortable with that.” Climate-positive applications that particularly excite Cupta include designing novel compounds to better capture carbon dioxide out of the air or industrial smokestacks, discovering more efficient catalysts for the energy intensive Haber-Bosch process used to produce ammonia-based fertilizer, and perfecting the chemistry behind solid-state batteries, which could be safer, longer-lasting, and far more energy dense than standard lithium-ion cells.
But quantum computing could also break many of today’s standard encryption methods, which secure everything from online banking systems and medical records to cryptocurrencies. It could help oil and gas companies with exploration, extraction, and petrochemical processing, helping to make fossil fuel production more efficient and cost competitive with renewables. Or maybe its greatest commercial value lies in, say, helping hedge funds optimize their trading strategies and portfolios — not necessarily a climate-negative application, but a far cry from the breakthroughs many sustainability-focused investors are hoping for.
The technology’s ultimate climate impact will always depend, to some degree, on how and where it’s deployed. Yet when Cupta looks at Prelude’s portfolio of climate tech solutions, he mainly sees the ways that quantum could help them move faster and build superior products. “If you think that the things we’re inventing are going to be better for the world than what came previously, you want to supercharge those things,” he told me.
He’s betting Atom’s platform will prove to be “the most energy-efficient and lowest footprint” approach in the industry. The company builds its qubits from neutral atoms, which have an equal number of protons and electrons and thus no net electrical charge. This system traps them in mid-air using tightly focused laser beams, a setup that allows the atoms to be packed far more densely than many competing designs, which often use micron-scale wires. And because the laser traps are movable, the system can rearrange qubits on the fly to optimize for different tasks.
Neutral atom-based systems are a relative newcomer to the quantum computing landscape, but Cupta believes they have the potential to leapfrog the industry’s dominant architecture: superconducting qubits. Often described as artificial atoms, these qubits are tiny electrical circuits engineered to mimic the quantum behavior of atoms. They underpin the quantum efforts of tech giants like Google and IBM, as well as startups such as Rigetti Computing — founded by Sygaldry’s other co-founder, Chad Rigetti — and IQM Quantum Computers.
But when Cupta was first exploring the idea of a quantum investment, he said nearly everyone he spoke with admitted that if they were “starting from scratch” they wouldn’t choose to work with superconducting qubits. That suggested to him that this approach had become a legacy technology, while Atom Computers’ neutral atoms represented the future. Other investors now appear to be buying that thesis. Last month, the startup announced a $100 million Series C, and is also set to receive $100 million from the U.S. Department of Commerce as part of a $2 billion CHIPS Act investment in quantum computing and manufacturing. For its part, Oratomic — a Lowercarbon portfolio company — is also working to build a neutral atoms-based quantum computer.
Prelude has been wrong about quantum before, as have plenty of other investors. The firm also co-led the Series A and B rounds for the quantum software company Zapata Computing, which went public via SPAC in 2024. The stock quickly collapsed, and within seven months the company had run out of cash and ceased operations. It eventually restructured and reemerged as Zapata Quantum, though its shares are still only worth around $1 on the lightly traded OTCQB market.
There’s also always the possibility that a climate-focused startup could simply reinvent itself, pivoting toward a more promising market opportunity. Consider the case of Crusoe. The AI data center builder and operator now valued at over $10 billion initially pitched itself at the beginning of the decade as a climate tech startup, using natural gas that would have otherwise been flared off to power cryptocurrency mining, thereby reducing emissions. While always an unconventional thesis, sustainability-focused VCs like Lowercarbon, G2 Venture Partners, and MCJ Collective piled in. Since then, the company has greatly expanded its natural gas footprint as it’s pivoted aggressively toward building AI data centers.
All of which is to say, there’s simply no guarantee that a climate tech startup will stay true to its original mission, or that the energy savings and efficiency gains it promises will ultimately materialize. The possibility of a paradoxical outcome is just a part of investing in energy efficiency technologies.
Investors seem to have gotten comfortable with the discomfort. But the public may not have to wait too much longer to see the first signs of what a quantum-powered future could look like. Sygaldry is aiming to “have some meaningful technology by the end of the decade,” Friedson said. “Over the next couple years I expect quantum is going to start reaching these really valuable inflection points that continue to drive adoption.”
Current conditions: Tropical Storm Bertha washed out the majority of monitored sea turtle nests in the western part of the Florida Panhandle • Record rain in West Virginia swelled creeks that toppled bridges in the north central part of the state • In the Pacific, Tropical Depression Kiyapo is barreling toward the northern part of the Philippines’ Luzon island.

China just quietly upped its target for renewable energy consumption, ratcheting up the goal 53% by 2030, rising to 1.8 billion tons of coal equivalent from 1.18 billion tons last year. That’s according to the latest five-year plan for renewables the National Development and Reform Commission published on its website. Wind and solar, paired with energy storage, are expected to provide 20% of electricity during the summer and winter evening peak periods, up from 10% currently, according to Bloomberg. By 2030, Beijing wants 300 gigawatts of peak capacity from renewables. Non-electric utilization of renewables, such as for heavy industry, is projected to rise to 150 million tons of coal equivalent from 60 million in 2025. The People’s Republic is betting on novel technologies to start taking off. By the start of the next decade, China wants to increase solar thermal capacity to 15 gigawatts from just under 2 gigawatts at the end of last year. The government wants marine energy, such as tidal and wave power, to go from virtually nothing today to at least 400 megawatts.
In the meantime, Beijing’s buildout of nuclear reactors continues apace. Per my promise to keep you abreast of all the big milestones, here’s the latest: China General Nuclear just installed the “supermodule” for the CAP1000 — the Chinese version of America’s Westinghouse AP1000 — at its Unit 2 project at the Lufeng Nuclear Power Plant in Guangdong Province. The installation this week of a module that’s too big to be transported by rail or boat and thus needed to be fabricated on site “signifies that the construction of the reactor building” for the new unit “has entered a new phase.”
Meta has quit a top corporate initiative to promote clean energy as the Facebook parent company has built out at least a dozen gas-fired power stations to supply electricity to its data centers over the past year. While rivals such as Apple, Google, and Microsoft remain members of the RE100, a project of the British-headquartered nonprofit the Climate Group that former United Kingdom Prime Minister Tony Blair co-founded, Recharge News reported that Meta had left the initiative. A spokesperson for the company told TechCrunch it was a mutual decision, though Meta declined to comment on the exact reasoning.
The United States currently has a little over 70 gigawatts of capacity to manufacture solar panels each year. Tesla has plans to dramatically increase that number. “We are just going to multiply it [by] an order of magnitude,” Vaibhav Taneja, Tesla’s chief financial officer, said during an earnings call Wednesday night. “We’re going at a very rapid scale.” It was just one of the various investments the electric auto giant is banking on investors to support as billionaire CEO Elon Musk ramps up spending on manufacturing semiconductors and humanoid robots as part of its artificial intelligence buildout, while also tackling an energy source that the scale of China’s factories has largely brought down to a commodified price. The stock plunged nearly 15% on Thursday as CNBC cautioned that investors are increasingly spooked about spending on artificial intelligence. “Yes, this means that we are doing a lot of things all at the same time,” Taneja said. “And that’s why we just have to go as fast as … humanly possible, make things work in the real world.”
Adding to the company’s woes: The U.S. government is now looking to strengthen regulations on car door hands after federal filings linked electric door failures to at least 15 deaths in Tesla vehicles, Bloomberg reported.
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The price of Brent crude, the international benchmark for oil, surpassed $100 per barrel for the first time since May amid President Donald Trump’s threats to ramp up the U.S. bombing campaign against Iran and a resurgence of attacks from Yemen’s Tehran-backed Houthi rebels in the Red Sea. West Texas Intermediate, the U.S. benchmark, finished out the day of trading at a little over $92 per barrel. Murban crude, out of the United Arab Emirates, soared nearly 20% to more than $107 per barrel. On Thursday, Trump told Axios he was close to a final decision on whether to launch a “massive attack” on Iran, “bigger than ever before.” The threat comes on what the Financial Times clocked as the 12th straight night of U.S. strikes against the Islamic Republic.
A new analysis from the consultancy Wood Mackenzie, meanwhile, showed the limits of Saudi Arabia’s main bypass for the Strait of Hormuz. Riyadh redirected virtually all crude exports through its East-West Pipeline to Yanbu on the Red Sea after Iran closed the narrow waterway at the mouth of the Persian Gulf at the start of the war in February. Volumes flowing through the pipeline peaked at more than 4 million barrels per day in March. But by June, that flow declined to about 2.4 million barrels per day, a 41% decline. On the whole, crude exports out of the Persian Gulf fell 82% between January and June. That’s likely due to dropping production as the regional industry struggles to find sufficient outlets for its supply. The Red Sea corridor also also “faces a declared Houthi blockade that, if enforced, could reduce global oil supply considerably.”
The U.S. has 4.2 billion short tons of coal reserves in active mines and another 356 billion short tons in untapped deposits, according to an updated U.S. Geological Survey report the Department of the Interior released Thursday. If extracted and burned in a power plant, the coal could supply the nation’s needs for at least 600 years at the current rate of consumption, the agency said. “American Energy Dominance is more important than ever, and so is beautiful, clean coal’s role in the production of electricity needed to fuel our future prosperity,” Secretary of the Interior Doug Burgum said in a statement. “Thanks to the USGS’s rigorous and independent assessment, we’re better equipped to manage America’s vast public lands responsibly while supporting energy security and economic opportunity.” Of the 34 coal mines on federal land, 14 are located in Wyoming, followed by Colorado with six, North Dakota and Utah with four mines each, and Alabama and Montana with three mines each. But Wyoming's mines contain 87% of the reserves associated with active mines on federal lands. As I told you last month, the Trump administration put up $850 million to support a coal revival. And the Iran War, as my colleague Matthew Zeitlin wrote in March, is only fueling more demand for coal.
Last month, I told you that Japan was the other country, besides the United States, bucking the global trend toward more, not less, offshore wind. Here’s a good reminder that, in most cases, such trends are directional, not definitive. The 315-megawatt Oga-Katagami-Akita offshore wind project just received its certification from Japanese regulators, “confirming that the design of its wind power generation facilities complies with” technical standards. It’s a major step toward building the array of 21 Vestas turbines off the coast of Akita Prefecture, per offshoreWIND.biz.
Rob talks with Charm Industrial cofounder Peter Reinhardt about “liquid smoke” and how it can store greenhouse gas at gigaton scale.
Charm Industrial is a climate tech company that takes biomass and converts it into a heavy, carbon-rich oil that can be injected underground, transmuting and storing the greenhouse gas far from the atmosphere. They’re scaling up fast and recently announced a new $20 million debt facility with JP Morgan; the bank also agreed to buy more than 60,000 tons worth of removals from them.
On this episode of Shift Key, Rob is joined by Peter Reinhardt, the CEO and cofounder of Charm. (He’s also the CEO of the trucking company Revoy, a founder of the autoimmune therapeutics company Antipode, and a board member at the electricity data company Arcadia.) They talk about what makes Charm different, how it is scaling operations as a carbon removal company, and the changing politics of climate change.
Shift Key is hosted by Robinson Meyer, the founding executive editor of Heatmap News.
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Here is an excerpt from their conversation:
Robinson Meyer: You’ve had a very interesting career of starting in software, exiting a software company, and now working in the world of molecules. And I think there are two ... frankly, I’m gonna simplify things, but I feel like there’s two pathways that bring people into, let’s say, venture-backed climate startups. No. 1 is people worked at SpaceX or Tesla, or No. 2, people worked at a software company and then cared about climate change and got into the molecule space. And so as someone who was at a software company, exited, and now works with CO2 — works with physical things — what has surprised you most about working in molecules, and what have you brought from the land of bits to the land of molecules?
Peter Reinhardt: I think the main thing that i’ve brought is an expectation of pace, and that the pace can be faster, and the main thing that I have encountered that is new is the regulatory and policy environment. It doesn’t really exist in software — like it’s not a surprise that AI is the fastest growing sector in the economy right now. Everything else is regulated to stasis. And so you have an unregulated thing, relatively speaking; it’s growing super fast and creating all kinds of all kinds of good for people. We all use it every day because we get some value out of it. And so that has been hugely eye-opening. And the politics of deployment in hardware — politics of deployment don’t really exist. I mean, maybe they do around AI, but they don’t really exist in the software world. You deploy at your own pace and that’s it.
The politics of deployment in hard tech and climate are very complicated. And I think I went in with a very naive viewpoint, which is that in theory, Democrats are super aligned to climate and super aligned to deployment. In practice, I don’t know. If you look at like — I mean, I wrote a blog post about this, which is like, regulation is doubling the cost. It is impossible for us to get started in California. This is nominally the state that’s the champion of climate today. It’s not leading on renewable energy development. I tried to go there first in terms of deploying carbon removal. God knows the forests in California could use it, right? For the same reason that we’re here in Colorado, we were told it would be like 10 years to get the first injection while permitted.
That’s not what leadership in climate looks like, no matter how you slice it or dice it. It can’t take 10 years to try to deploy a novel technology. I would love to deploy in California. It’s my home state. I live there, and I come out to Colorado once every two weeks to be with most of the team here. But that’s not what leadership looks like. And so again, in theory, there’s a lot of talk. But particularly on the Democrat side, the gap between talk about climate and climate action versus the reality on the ground of actually trying to deploy stuff is massive, and like, deeply, deeply challenging, I would say, to my identity over the last few years. And like very, very discombobulating.
You can find a full transcript of the episode here.
Mentioned:
Charm’s new deal with JP Morgan
The ProPublica story Peter criticized
“Over-Regulation is Doubling the Cost,” by Peter
The Cantwell-Sheehy bipartisan carbon removal bill
Previously on Heatmap: Charm Is Working With the U.S. Forest Service on a Carbon Removal Pilot
This episode of Shift Key is sponsored by ...
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Music for Shift Key is by Adam Kromelow