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Fuel is out. Supply chains are in.

It was not long ago that the combination of “hydrogen” and “automakers” would bring to mind fuel cells, a technology that has already fallen out of favor as buyers flock to electric cars. In its wake, though, green hydrogen is catching the eye of automakers for another reason: It could allow them to decarbonize one of their trickiest supply chains.
In the last two years, major car companies have committed to integrating green or recycled steel, made with hydrogen, into their vehicles. At the forefront of this effort is Volvo, which aims to be the first automaker to use fossil-free steel in its cars. If successful — and, given where the company is in the process, that’s a big if — the Swedish automaker’s efforts could provide a template for how to decarbonize other challenging parts of industrial supply chains.
Steelmaking is responsible for roughly 8% of global energy demand and 2.6 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide emissions per year, a total higher than all of the European Union’s emissions in 2021. Steelmakers use fossil fuels — and especially highly polluting coal — to process iron ore and produce the alloy. At present, there aren’t any surefire paths to reduce these emissions, given how crucial a role steel plays in modern manufacturing.
But green steel has real promise. Hydrogen made using renewable energy can be used to replace coal in steelmaking with near-zero greenhouse gas emissions. The market for green steel is still small, though, in part because there is simply not a lot on offer. In 2019, just 8% of the world’s steel mills had even begun committing to zero-carbon technology, according to the green energy non-profit RMI.
This is largely because the supply of green hydrogen — the ingredient that gives green steel its name and a hot commodity among investors — is itself constrained. Creating the fuel is incredibly energy intensive. To produce 550 million metric tons of green hydrogen annually, the world would need 18 times more solar capacity than it has installed today, according to the Hydrogen Council.
As of 2020, the world demanded 90 million metric tons of hydrogen for refining and industrial applications, which were produced almost entirely by fossil fuels. Of that, just 30,000 metric tons were produced using renewable energy.
For Volvo, the first step of the enormous undertaking of steel decarbonization was to assess the carbon footprint of a car, specifically its first electric vehicle. It found its XC40 Recharge would emit 27 metric tons of carbon dioxide over its lifetime even if it were charged entirely using renewable energy. Of that total, 18% of the materials-related emissions came from the steel used to build the car.
According to Jonas Otterheim, who was until recently the head of climate action for the Swedish automaker (though he is temporarily on leave), this realization drove home that finding suppliers of low- or no-emissions steel would be “critical” to reach the company’s goal of supply chain-wide carbon neutrality by 2040.
Volvo turned to its steel suppliers, namely SSAB, the manufacturer that has long provided the company’s conventional steel. In June 2021, the two partnered to explore developing fossil-free steel for use in its cars as well.
It may seem that substituting green steel for conventional is straightforward, especially given that, per SSAB, “the only difference in the process is that the energy used will be exclusively fossil-free electricity and other fossil-free fuels.” However, with an operation as complicated as auto manufacturing, any material change requires exhaustive testing.
And that’s where Volvo is today. The automaker aims to integrate green steel into its vehicles in 2026, which is when SSAB intends to have its fossil-free plant up and running. In the meantime, Volvo is evaluating “part-by-part” which components of its manufacturing process can safely be replaced with green steel.
“This is [a] very big job over a number of years, before the material can be put into any car,” said Otterheim. The two companies are evaluating whether the switch to green steel will require retooling its plants, which “are built specifically for every car and every material quality we have,” he added.
Otterheim said the deal initially was just exploratory in nature: an opportunity for both companies to explore whether it’s possible to make fossil-free versions of all the different grades of steel that are necessary to build a car, and potentially use it in a concept car.
However, his colleague Stina Klingvall, who is Volvo’s acting head of climate action in Otterheim’s absence, said that things have developed to the point where Volvo is actively starting to prepare to produce components with the new steel.
One promising development has come already from within the Volvo ecosystem. In August 2021, SSAB shipped a batch of green steel made at a pilot plant with renewable electricity and hydrogen to Volvo’s truck-making arm (separate from Volvo Cars), which was then integrated the steel into a dump truck prototype. (SSAB produced this steel under its Hybrit initiative, a collaboration with mining company LKAB and power company Vattenfall.)
One big outstanding question is how much automakers and other green steel buyers will have to pay to use the more sustainable metal.
RMI’s analysis found that hydrogen-based steel production can result in a 20% cost premium, but also that the premium disappears when electricity prices are in the range of $15-$20 per megawatt-hour or lower. This remains out of reach across most of the U.S., though a Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory study found that the country is on track for solar costing $22 per MWh hour on average by 2035 (down from $34 per MWh in 2020).
Meanwhile, Otterheim said that he hopes that Volvo’s work will “help drive down costs'' to be more in line with the status quo for steel, and that it will push more automakers to make commitments of their own. This represents the most crucial knock-on effect of a single company’s dipping a toe into greener materials: peer pressure.
“Due to the scarcity of these materials over the short-term period, other premium car makers are also starting to act to secure volumes for their supply,” Otterheim said. “The race for such materials is naturally good, creating an even stronger signal to other steel suppliers to follow.”
Volvo may have made the first green steel purchase commitment, but several automaker competitors have followed suit, including BMW and General Motors. While the pool of customers for steel is a big one (and includes the renewables industry), transportation is a particularly big fish in that pool, responsible for 12% of global steel consumption, per the World Steel Association.
When it comes to urging heavy industry to decarbonize, there is strength in numbers. Materials like steel, cement, and chemicals are integral parts of countless other supply chains, which means it’s hard for a single customer to have much sway. As a consequence, heavy industrial companies lack the incentive to innovate, said former New York Times journalist Justin Gillis, who recently published a book on how to push for climate action. There are few market signals “that clean products are going to be favored,” he said.
But some companies are trying to change that dynamic. The First Movers Coalition was formed last year explicitly to create markets for nascent sectors like green steel and carbon dioxide removal. With a market cap of $8.5 trillion between the more than 50 companies involved, their collective pledges to procure climate-friendly products despite the higher price tag offers market certainty. When Ford joined the coalition in May, the company pledged that at least 10% of its steel and aluminum would have near-zero carbon emissions by 2030.
Ultimately, companies that have committed to cleaning up their supply chains have a choice of how to decide to define that supply chain, and how much pressure to put on their suppliers with hard-to-abate emissions.
“How many steps back in the supply chain do you go? The further back you go, the less responsibility any one consumer-facing company can have,” Gillis said. “I do think these companies can play a role by sending market pressure, but they need to be willing to pay a price premium for cleaner supplies or materials.”
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Editor's note: This article was updated at 12:23 pm ET to clarify part of the steelmaking process.
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One of the buzziest climate tech companies in our Insiders Survey is pushing past the “missing middle.”
One of the buzziest climate tech companies of the past year is proving that a mature, hitherto moribund technology — conventional geothermal — still has untapped potential. After a breakthrough year of major discoveries, Zanskar has raised a $115 million Series C round to propel what’s set to be an investment-heavy 2026, as the startup plans to break ground on multiple geothermal power plants in the Western U.S.
“With this funding, we have a six power plant execution plan ahead of us in the next three, four years,” Diego D’Sola, Zanskar’s head of finance, told me. This, he estimates, will generate over $100 million of revenue by the end of the decade, and “unlock a multi-gigawatt pipeline behind that.”
The size of the round puts a number to climate world’s enthusiasm for Zanskar. In Heatmap’s Insider’s Survey, experts identified Zanskar as one of the most promising climate tech startups in operation today.
Zanskar relies on its suite of artificial intelligence tools to locate previously overlooked conventional geothermal resources — that is, naturally occurring reservoirs of hot water and steam. Trained on a combination of exclusive subsurface datasets, modern satellite and remote sensing imagery, and fresh inputs from Zanksar’s own field team, the company’s AI models can pinpoint the most promising sites for exploration and even guide exactly what angle and direction to drill a well from.
Early last year, Zanskar announced that it had successfully revitalized an underperforming geothermal power plant in New Mexico by drilling a new pumped well nearby, which has since become the most productive well of this type in the U.S. That was followed by the identification of a large geothermal resource in northern Nevada, where exploratory wells had been drilled for decades but no development had ever occurred. Just last month, the company revealed a major discovery in western Nevada — a so-called “blind” geothermal system with no visible surface activity such as geysers or hot springs, and no history of exploratory drilling.
“This is a site nobody had ever had on the radar, no prior exploration,” Carl Hoiland, Zanskar’s CEO, told me of this latest discovery, dubbed “Big Blind.” He described it as a tipping point for the industry, which had investors saying, “Okay, this is starting to look more like a trend than just an anomaly.”
Spring Lane Capital led Zanskar’s latest round, which also included Obvious Ventures, Union Square Ventures, and Lowercarbon Capital, among others. Spring Lane aims to fill the oft-bemoaned “missing middle” of climate finance — the stage at which a startup has matured beyond early-stage venture backing but is still considered too risky for more traditional infrastructure investors.
Zanskar now finds itself squarely in that position, needing to finance not just the drills, turbines, and generators for its geothermal plants, but also the requisite permitting and grid interconnection costs. D’Sola told me that he expects the company to close its first project financing this quarter, explaining that its ambitious plans require “north of $600 million in total capital expenditures, the vast majority of which will come from non-dilutive sources or project level financing.”
Unsurprisingly, the company anticipates that data centers will be some of its first customers, with hyperscalers likely working through utilities to secure the clean energy attributes of Zanskar’s grid-connected power. And while the West Coast isn’t the primary locus of today’s data center buildout, Hoiland thinks Zanskar’s clean, firm, low-cost power will help draw the industry toward geothermally rich states such as Utah and Nevada, where it’s focused.
“We see a scenario where the western U.S. is going to have some of the cheapest carbon-free energy, maybe anywhere in the world, but certainly in the United States.” Hoiland told me.
Just how cheap are we talking? Using the levelized cost of energy — which averages the lifetime cost of building and operating a power plant per unit of electricity generated — Zanskar plans to deliver electricity under $45 per megawatt-hour by the end of this decade. For context, the Biden administration set that same cost target for next-generation geothermal systems such as those being pursued by startups like Fervo Energy and Eavor — but projected it wouldn’t be reached 2035.
At this price point, conventional geothermal would be cheaper than natural gas, too. The LCOE for a new combined-cycle natural gas plant in the U.S. typically ranges from $48 to $107 per megawatt-hour.
That opens up a world of possibilities, Hoiland said, with the startup’s’s most optimistic estimates showing that conventional geothermal could potentially supply all future increases in electricity demand. “But really what we’re trying to meet is that firm, carbon-free baseload requirement, which by some estimates needs to be 10% to 30% of the total mix,” Hoiland said. “We have high confidence the resource can meet all of that.”
On New Jersey’s rate freeze, ‘global water bankruptcy,’ and Japan’s nuclear restarts
Current conditions: A major winter storm stretching across a dozen states, from Texas to Delaware, and could hit by midweek • The edge of the Sahara Desert in North Africa is experiencing sandstorms kicked up by colder air heading southward • The Philippines is bracing for a tropical cyclone heading toward northern Luzon.
Mikie Sherrill wasted no time in fulfilling the key pledge that animated her campaign for governor of New Jersey. At her inauguration Tuesday, the Democrat signed a series of executive orders aimed at constraining electricity bills and expanding energy production in the state. One order authorized state utility regulators to freeze rate hikes. Another directed the New Jersey Board of Public Utilities “to open solicitations for new solar and storage power generation, to modernize gas and nuclear generation so we can lower utility costs over the long term.” Now, as Heatmap’s Matthew Zeitlin put it, “all that’s left is the follow-through,” which could prove “trickier than it sounds” due to “strict deadlines to claim tax credits for renewable energy development looming.”
Last month, the environmental news site Public Domain broke a big story: Karen Budd-Falen, the No. 3 official at the Department of the Interior, has extensive financial ties to the controversial Thacker Pass lithium mine in northern Nevada that the Trump administration is pushing to fast track. Now The New York Times is reporting that House Democrats are urging the Interior Department’s inspector general to open an investigation into the multimillion-dollar relationship Budd-Falen’s husband has with the mine’s developer. Frank Falen, her husband, sold water from a family ranch in northern Nevada to the subsidiary of Lithium Americas for $3.5 million in 2019, but the bulk of the money from the sale depended on permit approval for the project. Budd-Falen did not reveal the financial arrangement on any of her four financial disclosures submitted to the federal government when she worked for the Interior Department during President Donald Trump’s first term from 2018 to 2021.
House Republicans, meanwhile, are planning to vote this week to undo Biden-era restrictions on mining near more than a million acres of Minnesota wilderness. “Mining is huge in Minnesota. And all mining helps the school trust fund in Minnesota as well. So it benefits all schools in the state,” Representative Pete Stauber, a Minnesota Republican and the chair of the Natural Resources Subcommittee on Energy and Mineral Resources, said of the rule-killing bill he sponsored. While the vote is expected to draw blowback from environmentalists, E&E News noted that it could also agitate proceduralists who oppose the GOP’s continued “use of the rule-busting Congressional Review Act for actions that have not been traditionally seen as rules.” Still, the move is likely to fuel the dealmaking boom for critical minerals. As Heatmap’s Katie Brigham wrote in September, “everybody wants to invest” in startups promising to mine and refine the metals over which China has a near monopoly.
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A new United Nations report declares that the world has entered an era of “global water bankruptcy,” putting billions of people at risk. In an interview with The Guardian, Kaveh Madani, the report’s lead author, said that while not every basin and country is directly at risk, trade and migration are set to face calamity from water shortages. Upward of 75% of people live in countries classified as water insecure or critically water insecure, and 2 billion people live on land that is sinking as groundwater aquifers collapse. “This report tells an uncomfortable truth: Many critical water systems are already bankrupt,” Madani said. “It’s extremely urgent [because] no one knows exactly when the whole system would collapse.”

The Democratic Republic of the Congo has given the U.S. government a vetted list of mining and processing projects open to American investment. The shortlist, which Mining.com said was delivered to U.S. officials last week, includes manganese, gold, and cassiterite licenses; a copper-cobalt project and a germanium-processing venture; four gold permits; a lithium license; and mines producing cobalt, gold, and tungsten. The potential deals are an outgrowth of the peace agreement Trump brokered between the DRC and Rwanda-backed rebels, and could offer Washington a foothold in a mineral-rich country whose resources China has long dominated. But establishing an American presence in an unstable African country is a risky investment. As I reported for Heatmap back in October, the Denver-based Energy Fuels’ $2 billion mining project in Madagascar was suddenly thrown into chaos when the island nation’s protests resulted in a coup, though the company has said recently it’s still moving forward.
The Tokyo Electric Power Company is delaying the restart of the Kashiwazaki Kariwa nuclear power station in western Japan after an alarm malfunction. The alarm system for the control rods that keep the fission reaction in check failed to sound during a test operation on Tuesday, Tepco said. The world’s largest nuclear plant had been scheduled to restart one of its seven reactors on Tuesday. Fuel loading for the reactor, known as Unit 6, was completed in June. It’s unclear when the restart will now take place.
The delay marks a setback for Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, who has made restarting the reactors idled after the 2011 Fukushima disaster and expanding the nuclear industry a top priority, as I told you in October. But as I wrote last month in an exclusive about Japan’s would-be national small modular reactor champion, the country has a number of potential avenues to regain its nuclear prowess beyond just reviving its existing fleet.
As a fourth-generation New Yorker, I’m qualified to say something controversial: I love, and often even prefer, Montreal-style bagels. They’re smaller, more efficient, and don’t deliver the same carbohydrate bomb to my gut. Now the best-known Montreal-style bagel place in the five boroughs has found a way to use the energy needed to make their hand-rolled, wood-fired bagels more efficiently, too. Black Seed Bagels’ catering kitchen in northern Brooklyn is now part of a battery pilot program run by David Energy, a New York-based retail energy provider. The startup supplied suitcase-sized batteries for free last August, allowing Black Seed to disconnect from ConEdison’s grid during hours when electricity rates are particularly high. “We’re in the game of nickels and dimes,” Noah Bernamoff, Black Seed’s co-owner, told Canary Media. “So we’re always happy to save the money.” Wise words.
Rob talks through Rhodium Groups’s latest emissions report with climate and energy director Ben King.
America’s estimated greenhouse gas emissions rose by 2.4% last year — which is a big deal since they had been steady or falling in 2023 and 2024. More ominously, U.S. emissions grew faster than our gross domestic product last year, suggesting that the economy got less efficient from a climate pollution perspective.
Is this Trump’s fault? The AI boom’s? Or was it a weird fluke? In this week’s Shift Key episode, Rob talks to Ben King, a climate and energy director at the Rhodium Group, about why U.S. emissions grew and what it says about the underlying structure of the American economy. They talk about the power grid, the natural gas system, and whether industry is going to overtake other emissions drivers as once thought.
Shift Key is hosted by Robinson Meyer, the founding executive editor of Heatmap, and Jesse Jenkins, a professor of energy systems engineering at Princeton University. Jesse is off this week.
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Here is an excerpt from our conversation:
Robinson Meyer: At the same time there’s been rising total electrification of the vehicle fleet, there’s also been rising hybrid and plug-in hybrid sales. Do we have a sense of how that breakdown is happening, in terms of reduced carbon intensity of the transportation sector and the light duty fleet?
Ben King: It’s a good question. We haven’t disaggregated the … When I say electric vehicles, I’m talking broadly about both full battery electric, and then plug-in hybrids. And then, I think we say this in paper, but I think there was pretty robust growth for gasoline hybrids as which, you know, relative to just a pure gas car, is better from an emissions perspective.
Meyer: Well, it’s funny because if you care about decarbonization and getting to net zero as soon as possible, you could have to poo poo hybrids. But if you’re actually involved in the game to just keep as much emissions out of the sky as possible, and you’re looking to net those 2% declines every year, hybrids are pretty important because they are basically a drop-in replacement to gasoline car use that burns less gasoline.
King: The other interesting thing that gasoline hybrids does for the sector is it finds interesting unanticipated uses for all this battery manufacturing capacity that we’ve built in the U.S., or that we stand to build. Our forecast for pure EVs — so battery electrics, plug-in hybrids — looks a little worse in the out years because of the tax credits going away, because of the EPA tailpipe regulations going away at the same time that the anticipated demand pull from those policies, plus the advanced manufacturing tax credit — the 45X tax credit — has really been wildly successful in standing up a battery manufacturing industry here in the U.S.
If you want that capacity to be around, one thing that you could do with those batteries is put them into hybrids, right? You might have to retool the line a little bit to accommodate different sizes and stuff, build the expertise, build the workforce, etc., such that when the floodgates open again for electric vehicle adoption, for instance, we’ve got substantial battery manufacturing capacity here domestically.
Mentioned:
Rhodium Group: Preliminary US Greenhouse Gas Emissions Estimates for 2025
Rob on Rhodium’s 2023 emissions report
And here’s Rhodium’s 2024 emissions report
This episode of Shift Key is sponsored by …
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Music for Shift Key is by Adam Kromelow.