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A practical guide to using the climate law to get cheaper solar panels, heat pumps, and more.

Today marks the one year anniversary of the Inflation Reduction Act, the biggest investment in tackling climate change the United States has ever made. The law consists of dozens of subsidies to help individuals, households, and businesses adopt clean energy technologies. Many of these solutions will also help people save money on their energy bills, reduce pollution, and improve their resilience to disasters.
But understanding how much funding is available for what, and how to get it, can be pretty confusing. Many Americans are not even aware that these programs exist. A poll conducted by The Washington Post and the University of Maryland in late July found that about 66% of Americans say they have heard “little” or “nothing at all” about the law’s incentives for installing rooftop solar panels, and 77% have heard little or nothing about subsidies for heat pumps. This tracks similar polling that Heatmap conducted last winter, suggesting not much has changed since then.
Below is Heatmap’s guide to the IRA’s incentives for cutting your carbon footprint at home. If you haven’t heard much about how the IRA can help you decarbonize your life, this guide is for you. If you have heard about the available subsidies, but aren’t sure how much they are worth or where to begin, I’ll walk you through it. (And if you’re looking for information about the electric vehicle tax credit, my colleague at Heatmap Robinson Meyer has you covered with this buyer’s guide.)
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There’s funding for almost every solution you can think of to make your home more energy efficient and reduce your fossil fuel use, whether you want to install solar panels, insulate your attic, replace your windows, or buy electric appliances. If you need new wiring or an electrical panel upgrade before you can get heat pumps or solar panels, there’s some money available for that, too.
The IRA created two types of incentives for home energy efficiency improvements: Unlimited tax credits that will lower the amount you owe when you file your taxes, and $8.8 billion in rebates that function as up-front discounts or post-installation refunds on equipment and services.
The tax credits are available now, but the rebates are not. The latter will be administered by states, which must apply for funding and create programs before the money can go out. The Biden administration began accepting applications at the end of July and expects states to begin rolling out their programs later this year or early next.
The home tax credits are available to everyone that owes taxes. The rebates, however, will have income restrictions (more on this later).
“The Inflation Reduction Act is not a limited time offer,” according to Ari Matusiak, the CEO of the nonprofit advocacy group Rewiring America. The rebate programs will only be available until the money runs out, but, again, none of them have started yet. Meanwhile, there’s no limit on how many people can claim the tax credits, and they’ll be available for at least the next decade. That means you don’t need to rush and replace your hot water heater if you have one that works fine. But when it does break down, you’ll have help paying for a replacement.
You might want to hold off on buying new appliances or getting insulation — basically any improvements inside your house. There are tax credits available for a lot of this stuff right now, but you’ll likely be able to stack them with rebates in the future.
However, if you’re thinking of installing solar panels on your roof or getting a backup battery system, there’s no need to wait. The rebates will not cover those technologies.
A few other caveats: There’s a good chance your state, city, or utility already offers rebates or other incentives for many of these solutions. Check with your state’s energy office or your utility to find out what’s available. Also, it can take months to get quotes and line up contractors to get this kind of work done. If you want to be ready when the rebates hit, it’s probably a good idea to do some of the legwork now.
If you do nothing else this year, consider getting a professional home energy audit. This will cost several hundred dollars, depending on where you live, but you’ll be able to get 30% off or up to $150 back under the IRA’s home improvement tax credit. Doing an audit will help you figure out which solutions will give you the biggest bang for your buck, and how to prioritize them once more funding becomes available. The auditor might even be able to explain all of the existing local rebate programs you’re eligible for.
The Internal Revenue Service will allow you to work with any home energy auditor until the end of this year, but beginning in 2024, you must hire an auditor with specific qualifications in order to claim the credit.
Let’s start with what’s inside your home. In addition to an energy audit, the Energy Efficiency Home Improvement Credit offers consumers 30% off the cost (after any other subsidies, and excluding labor) of Energy Star-rated windows and doors, insulation, and air sealing.
There’s a maximum amount you can claim for each type of equipment each year:
$600 for windows
$500 for doors
$1,200 for air sealing and insulation
The Energy Efficiency Home Improvement Credit also covers heat pumps, heat pump water heaters, and electrical panel upgrades, including the cost of installation for those systems. You can get:
$2,000 for heat pumps
$600 for a new electrical panel
Yes, homeowners can only claim up to $3,200 per year under this program until 2032.
Also, one downside to the Energy Efficiency Home Improvement Credit is that it does not carry over. If you spend enough on efficiency to qualify for the full $3,200 in a given year, but you only owe the federal government $2,000 for the year, your bill will go to zero and you will miss out on the remaining $1,200 credit. So it could be worth your while to spread the work out.
The other big consumer-oriented tax credit, the Residential Clean Energy Credit, offers homeowners 30% off the cost of solar panels and solar water heaters. It also covers battery systems, which store energy from the grid or from your solar panels that you can use when there’s a blackout, or sell back to your utility when the grid needs more power.
The subsidy has no limits, so if you spend $35,000 on solar panels and battery storage, including labor, you’ll be eligible for the full 30% refund, or $10,500. The credit can also be rolled over, so if your tax liability that year is only $5,000, you’ll be able to claim more of it the following year, and continue doing so until you’ve received the full value.
Geothermal heating systems are also covered under this credit. (Geothermal heat pumps work similarly to regular heat pumps, but they use the ground as a source and sink for heat, rather than the ambient air.)
Here’s what we know right now. The IRA funded two rebate programs. One, known as the Home Energy Performance-Based Whole House Rebates, will provide discounts to homeowners and landlords based on the amount of energy a home upgrade is predicted to save.
Congress did not specify which energy-saving measures qualify — that’s something state energy offices will decide when they design their programs. But it did cap the total amount each household could receive, based on income. For example, if your household earns under 80% of the area median income, and you make improvements that cut your energy use by 35%, you’ll be eligible for up to $8,000. If your household earns more than that, you can get up to $4,000.
There’s also the High-Efficiency Electric Home Rebate Program, which will provide discounts on specific electric appliances like heat pumps, an induction stove, and an electric clothes dryer, as well as a new electrical panel and wiring. Individual households can get up to $14,000 in discounts under this program, although there are caps on how much is available for each piece of equipment. This money will only be available to low- and moderate-income households, or those earning under 150% of the area median income.
Renters with a household income below 150% of the area median income qualify for rebates on appliances that they should be able to install without permission from their landlords, and that they can take with them if they move. For example, portable appliances like tabletop induction burners, clothes dryers, and window-unit heat pumps are all eligible for rebates.
It’s also worth noting that there is a lot of funding available for multifamily building owners. If you have a good relationship with your landlord, you might want to talk to them about the opportunity to make lasting investments in their property. Under the performance-based rebates program, apartment building owners can get up to $400,000 for energy efficiency projects.
For the most part, yes. But the calculus gets tricky when it comes to heat pumps.
Experts generally agree that no matter where you live, switching from an oil or propane-burning heating system or electric resistance heaters to heat pumps will lower your energy bills. Not so if you’re switching over from natural gas.
Electric heat pumps are three to four times more efficient than natural gas heating systems, but electricity is so much more expensive than gas in some parts of the country that switching from gas to a heat pump can increase your overall bills a bit. Especially if you also electrify your water heater, stove, and clothes dryer.
That being said, Rewiring America estimates that switching from gas to a heat pump will lower bills for about 60% of households. Many utilities offer tools that will help you calculate your bills if you make the switch.
The good news is that all the measures I’ve discussed in this article are expected to cut carbon emissions and pollution, even if most of your region’s electricity still comes from fossil fuels. For some, that might be worth the monthly premium.
Tax Credit #1 offers 30% off the cost of energy audits, windows, doors, insulation, air sealing, heat pumps, electrical panels, with a $3200-per-year allowance and individual item limits.
Tax Credit #2 offers 30% off the cost of solar panels, solar water heaters, batteries, and geothermal heating systems.
Rebate Program #1 will offer discounts on whole-home efficiency upgrades depending on how much they reduce your energy use, with an $8,000 cap for lower-income families and a $4,000 cap for everyone else.
Rebate Program #2 is only for low- and moderate- income households, and will offer discounts on specific electric appliances, with a $14,000 cap.
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According to more than 70 people who helped implement it.
There has been no shortage of post-mortems on the Inflation Reduction Act, Joe Biden’s crowning climate policy achievement that was swiftly dismantled by the Trump administration less than three years after going into effect. And yet there’s been little public reflection on the law from the individuals who were entrusted with actually implementing it.
A new report by three former Biden administration staffers shared exclusively with Heatmap offers that inside perspective, looking at what it took to roll out the nearly 30 clean energy tax credits and associated bonus provisions in the law and what future policymakers and officials can learn from the effort. In the wake of extraordinary federal staffing cuts under Trump, the authors also wanted to create a blueprint that a future administration could use to build back capacity and implement similarly ambitious policy.
“There was an enormous amount of interagency collaboration,” Dorothy Lutz, who served as a senior policy advisor in Biden’s White House, told me. “We wanted to take the time to preserve the lessons learned across as many of the agencies as possible, anticipating that there would have to be some future capacity-building and making sure that we were starting on day one building on the successes and not needing to go through the same learning curve.”
Lutz compiled the report with Ted Lee, the former deputy assistant secretary for tax policy and delivery at the Treasury Department, and Emily Barkdoll, a former strategic and policy design analyst at the Department of Energy. Each of them has since moved on to roles in either the private sector or state governments. The trio released the report independently with financial support from a philanthropy called the Navigation Fund.
Past analyses have highlighted the IRA’s failure to build a political coalition for clean energy and the lack of public awareness about the law. This new report, which draws on more than 70 interviews with officials across the federal government, is more interested in the mechanics of the policies — how they were written, how they were administered, and why some tax credits were more effective than others. Here are three key takeaways.
While the Biden administration was often taken to task for working too slowly, the report makes the case that the government machinery was turning more quickly than ever before in the years following the IRA’s passage.
The Treasury Department published 96 pieces of tax credit guidance — more than 5,000 pages — in 26 months, as well as hundreds of additional resources for taxpayers. That’s nearly triple what the department achieved over a similar time period when it implemented Trump’s 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act. It also created new online portals and processes to replace antiquated paper systems.
“What allowed that to happen, and is an important historical precedent for the future, is the funding for the IRS — $80 billion that was included in the Inflation Reduction Act — along with funding for Treasury and the Office of Tax Policy to actually do the implementation work required,” Lee told me.
The IRA created enormous demand for attorneys with tax and regulatory expertise, both inside and outside the federal government, and the Treasury Department struggled to compete with the private sector for top talent. “To put it bluntly,” the report says, “there simply were not enough of these highly skilled, highly talented staff” considering the large number of new and modified tax provisions to implement.
The next time Congress passes a policy package of this magnitude and complexity, it should unlock the ability for agencies to offer more competitive compensation, the authors told me, either through more flexible pay scales or the creation of temporary, higher-paid positions. Barkdoll also emphasized the need for faster hiring processes — she said that roughly seven months passed between when she applied for her role at the DOE and when she was onboarded.
A related challenge stemmed from the wide-ranging expertise required to develop guidance on the tax credits. While the Treasury led the process, closely collaborating with the DOE, it relied on input from many other agencies — the Environmental Protection Agency on lifecycle analysis of greenhouse gas emissions, the Department of Agriculture on biofuels markets, the Department of Labor on prevailing wage and apprenticeship requirements, the Department of Housing and Urban Development on the low-income communities bonus, to name just a few examples. All of these agencies were housed in different buildings, and the government did not have good systems for digital collaboration.
Other than the DOE, none of these agencies were allocated additional funding to undertake this advisory work. Career staffers were “finding the space in their day job to lend their expertise to this,” Barkdoll said. “It was an unnecessary friction.” The fact that, in most cases, the legislation did not explicitly direct the Treasury to consult with these agencies also created uncertainty over who had the authority to weigh in on any given credit.
The reason all hell failed to break loose, according to the report, was the creation of the White House Office of Clean Energy Innovation and Implementation. Led by John Podesta, the group served as a central clearinghouse and coordinator for interagency communications and acted as the final arbiter of decisions in cases of disagreement. The authors are emphatic that future ambitious policy efforts should repeat this approach.
Part of what made the IRA so ambitious is also what made it incredibly complicated to implement. The tax credits were not just designed to incentivize clean energy deployment. Several were written with the explicit requirement of reducing greenhouse gas emissions, requiring complex lifecycle emissions calculations. Others were engineered to spur domestic manufacturing, bring economic development to low-income communities, and create good-paying jobs.
The statute was not always clear about how implementers should prioritize these different goals, which sometimes conflicted with one another. For example, the lack of domestic supply for many clean energy components created tradeoffs between the goals of the domestic content bonus credit and clean energy deployment. Lenient rules for the domestic content bonus might have failed to enhance domestic supply chains, while too-strict rules would have removed any incentive for companies to source locally.
Perhaps the clearest example of these kinds of trade-offs was the clean hydrogen production tax credit. “The hydrogen tax credit was, like, the ‘final boss’ of all of the challenges that we talk about,” Lutz told me. It was designed to reward producers on a sliding scale depending on how clean their hydrogen was, but the science behind making that kind of calculation was new and rapidly evolving. The credit was also extremely generous, meaning that the stakes of getting the balance right were high. Clean hydrogen is also a nascent industry in the U.S., with very few operating projects, which exacerbated the pressure.
In the end, Treasury erred on the side of issuing more rigorous rules that would ensure lower greenhouse gas emissions, at the risk of limiting uptake of the credit from taxpayers and growth of the hydrogen industry.
In general, the report warns that credits that require precise calculations of the emissions associated with a given process will always present a challenge. “These calculations are rarely straightforward and are often the subject of ongoing methodological disputes, even within the scientific community,” it says.
The report emphasizes that the tax credits were most effective when they supported more mature markets where the biggest barrier was cost; when they were written with straightforward policy goals; and when they were relatively easy for taxpayers to claim. The $7,500 credit for electric vehicles, for example, was highly successful for all of those reasons: The primary barrier to EV uptake for consumers was cost, and the design of the credit, which enabled dealers to reduce the vehicle price at the time of sale, made it incredibly easy to claim.
That being said, the authors don’t want policymakers to think they’re arguing for reduced ambition. “The federal government can and should do highly ambitious policy, and I hope that our report can be used by folks to take the next steps to do so,” Lutz said. “What we are trying to articulate is making sure that for each specific tool, you understand what the intended policy goal is, and then you design it to directly influence that behavior as sharply as possible.”
On a rare earth jumpstart, Constellation’s warning, and V.C. Summer
Current conditions: Super Typhoon Sinlaku made landfall over America’s Pacific territories as the strongest storm in the world, walloping the Northern Mariana Islands with 42-foot waves • New York City’s forecast high of 88 degrees Fahrenheit could break the the 87-degree record set for this day in 1941 • Equatorial Guinea faces flooding as heavy thunderstorms are on track to continue for at least the next week.

The United States’ blockade of Iran’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is confirmed to be in effect. A Financial Times analysis of tracking data showed several tankers transiting the waterway “either stopped or turned around.” While “several cargo ships that had come from Iranian ports, including at least two sanctioned tankers, attempted to cross the narrow waterway in the hours after the embargo came into effect on Monday,” reporters Alice Hancock and Steff Chávez wrote, “none have gone further than the mouth of the Gulf of Oman.”
China, whose vessels previously passed through the Strait of Hormuz even as Iran blocked the route for ships coming from or heading to Washington’s Arab allies on the opposite shore of the Persian Gulf, called the U.S. naval siege “dangerous and irresponsible.” With Tehran stopping ships coming from the Gulf Cooperation Council nations and the Americans intercepting vessels from Iranian ports, “the de facto result of it is that no one is really going to be able to leave the Gulf,” Cornell University’s Nicolas Mulder told Heatmap’s Matthew Zeitlin. “And that’s kind of where I see this game theoretically ending up.”
Tactical Resources Corp wants to develop a rare earth mine in the area southeast of El Paso, Texas, where rich deposits have drawn a few investors to what could become a hub for the state’s production of the metals needed for modern energy and weapons technologies. But even under the best case scenario, it’ll be a while before the company produces minerals from its site. And demand for domestically supplied rare earths is only going up. So the company has found a faster way to get material to market. In March, the startup bought a long-running quarry near its mining site that already produces the Union Pacific railway’s ballast, the sharp, angular rocks that form the track bed. On Wednesday, I can exclusively report for this newsletter, Tactical Resources plans to announce that it has secured 1.5 million tons of “crushed aggregate feedstock” – tailings from the years of ballast mining — that “appear to contain consistent” levels of rare earth ores. The company said the stockpiled waste material “is expected to serve as a potential near-term feedstock” for the company’s Peak Rare Earth Project, the hard-rock mine located near the quarry. “With approximately 1.5 million tons of material now secured,” Ranjeet Sundher, Tactical Resources’ chief executive, told me in a statement, “we are positioning the Peak Project to advance without the delays typically associated with a new mine development.”
The company’s shift comes as mineral extraction methods once derided as poor alternatives for new large-scale mining gain new ground. Last month, the Trump administration, which sought to clear the way for more mining last year, offered up to $500 million for companies promising to commercialize novel ways of refining and recycling rare earths, as I reported at the time.
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The top boss of the nation’s largest operator of nuclear and geothermal power stations, said the U.S. is “very behind” China in the race to build up enough energy to feed the data centers needed for artificial intelligence. Speaking at Tuesday’s Semafor World Economy conference in Washington, D.C., Constellation Energy Group CEO Joseph Dominguez said “we’re in some trouble” if the U.S. plan was to keep pace with China’s construction of power plants. “If this is going to be a race between China and the U.S. to build energy, might as well call it a day,” he said. Since 2010, he noted, China has added the equivalent capacity of the entire U.S. electrical system 1.5 times over. America’s best bet, Dominguez said, was to take advantage of how little of the U.S. system is currently being used by clearing space on the wires by managing peak energy demand. “It’s imperative that we win this ... for the defense of the nation and our way of life,” he said, and called for a national policy to supplant state-by-state approval processes. “If NIMBYism becomes the reason we lose the AI race, for whatever reason, we’re in a whole lot of trouble in this country.”
Back in March 2025, Tyler Norris, at the time a Duke University researcher, published an influential paper detailing how the U.S. could add gigawatts of additional data center capacity simply by having those server farms dial down power usage during hours when the grid is stressed. It represented, as Heatmap’s Matthew Zeitlin put it, “one weird trick for getting more data centers on the grid.” That the idea is now being all but endorsed by the top executive of a company that benefits from building more power generation shows how urgent the need is to come up with creative solutions to get around the bottlenecks for building new power stations. At the time, Norris — now part of a recently-assembled elite team of energy experts at Google — told me such an approach would also buy time to plan out what kind of new generation makes the most sense for the U.S. instead of just buying more gas turbines. It’s becoming a problem elsewhere. On Tuesday, the NAACP filed a lawsuit against Elon Musk’s xAI, accusing the company behind the Grok chat bot of illegally polluting the air with exhaust from the gas-fired turbines powering its data center complex south of Memphis, Tennessee.
Slate Auto has secured a much-needed cash infusion as the Jeff Bezos-backed electric vehicle startup scales up its manufacturing capacity ahead of the launch later this year of its affordable, mass-market pickup. The company said Monday it raised $650 million to prepare its plant in Warsaw, Indiana, before production begins “by the end of this year,” InsideEVs reported. The starting price for the company’s vehicle is expected to come out to about $25,000.
Another Bezos-related electric vehicle maker, the Amazon-backed Rivian, inked a deal with battery recycler Redwood Materials to repurpose 100 of the automaker’s lithium-ion packs for grid-scale energy storage. As part of the agreement, Rivian will provide the batteries to Redwood, which will integrate them into one of its grid-scale battery products. The power will be consumed on site by Rivian’s factory in Normal, Illinois. “At the same time, the massive amount of domestic battery assets already in the U.S. market represents a strategic energy resource,” JB Straubel, Redwood Materials founder and chief executive, said in a statement. “Our partnership with Rivian shows how EV battery packs can be turned into dispatchable energy resources, bringing new capacity online quickly, supporting critical manufacturing, and reducing strain on the grid without waiting years for new infrastructure. This is a scalable model for how we add meaningful energy capacity in the near term.”
Santee Cooper, South Carolina’s state-owned utility company, has given itself two years to decide whether a $2.7 billion deal to revive the state’s failed nuclear expansion will come to fruition. In December, the company reached a tentative agreement with New York investment firm Brookfield Asset Management, the majority owner of the Westinghouse Electric Company, to buy two partially built AP1000 reactors at the V.C. Summer nuclear plant. But Brookfield still hasn’t finalized the deal, according to the South Carolina Daily Gazette. Santee Cooper plans to outline the next steps for the project in June.
The Trump administration, meanwhile, is honing its plans for building nuclear power in space. On Tuesday, the White House released a six-page policy memo outlining its multi-agency strategy to produce a “nearterm demonstration and use of low- to mid-power space reactors in orbit and on the lunar surface.” Federal agencies, the memo read, “will establish cost-effective partnerships with private-sector innovators to meet near-term objectives that include safely deploying nuclear reactors in orbit as early as 2027 and on the Moon as early as 2030.”
An era of small-scale solar panels that can generate power from spaces as small as balconies may be upon us here in New York. The state is considering a bill that would allow for the installation and grid connection of small-scale panels that apartment dwellers — even renters — could easily afford and install. Data Gothamist cited from the plug-in solar advocacy group Bright Saver suggests the panels can offshore power usage by 10% to 25%. “Most New York City residents live in rental apartments and multi-family dwellings, so up until now, they really haven’t had a way to take any advantage of solar options,” state Senator Liz Krueger, a Democrat who represents Manhattan’s East Side and the bill’s sponsor, told the news site. “This really is a game-changer because frankly, anybody who’s got about $300 can go buy one of these.”
A conversation with anti-tech extremism researcher Mauro Lubrano on Sam Altman, Tesla protests, and 5G.
A spate of headline-grabbing attacks motivated by anxiety over artificial intelligence have rattled nerves across the U.S.
On Friday, I wrote a story about whether developers should be worried about violence after a shooting in Indiana targeted a city councilman who had voted in favor of a local data center. Almost at the same time the story published, news broke that an attacker had attempted to firebomb OpenAI CEO Sam Altman’s house. On Monday, the Justice Department filed charges against a 20-year-old from Texas for allegedly throwing a Molotov cocktail at the AI executive’s house. The Houston Chronicle reported that the individual charged had a Substack where they posted several anti-AI screeds; while I have reviewed the blog and can verify it exists, I cannot confirm the author’s connection to the individual charged.
As if that wasn’t enough, just days after the alleged firebombing, two people shot at Altman’s house.
To attempt to make sense of such chaotic brutality, I spoke with Mauro Lubrano, a lecturer at the University of Bath in the United Kingdom and author of the new book Stop the Machines: The Rise of Anti-Tech Extremism. Lubrano has for much of his career studied the rise of a global decentralized movement against tech infrastructure, including energy and transportation systems. Last year, for example, he published a detailed examination of the spate of attacks against Tesla vehicles, dealerships, and factories, calling them “insurrectionary anarchism” rooted in “anti-tech extremism” that “spans multiple ideologies — from eco-extremism to eco-fascism.”
Lubrano and I discussed how a prevailing pessimism about the future, AI acceleration, and climate anxiety is making people more likely to launch physical attacks on devices representing a perceived techno-apocalypse. Lubrano said we should expect more people to attack things linked to electricity itself, and that the solution to the violence is not eco-modernism or optimistic thinking, but rather society finally working through the hard questions raised by AI, climate change, economic inequality, and the other ills vexing so many today.
The following conversation was lightly edited and condensed for clarity.
We’ve seen these movements against tech infrastructure — attacks, threats — for a while. The concept goes back a long time. For a lot of folks in the U.S., there’s analogues here ranging from the assassination of the UnitedHealthcare CEO to ecoterrorism attacks on pipelines and other forms of energy infrastructure. How would you characterize the forces driving these recent attacks on executives and politicians supporting AI data centers?
When we look at anti-technology violence, we tend to see two main patterns of violence: attacks on tech executives, personalities, and so on; and attacks on critical infrastructure. This is related to a worldview that technology is not a collection of individual devices, but part of an interconnected system. Some anti-tech extremists will refer to the “mega-machine,” one that has three main manifestations. There’s an ideological one — the general idea that progress is inherently good. There’s the material manifestation, which is the technologies we interact with every day. And there’s the human component. People become cogs. So by targeting cogs in the machine, you contribute to the collapse of the machine itself.
There’s a propaganda element to all of this, too, targeting individuals who for one reason or another are prominent so it sends shockwaves to the tech community, to make some people change minds or join them in their anti-tech fight, or to just deter people from pursuing research on technology.
Then there’s also critical infrastructure. It comes back to this vision of the mega-machine, where instead of targeting individual technologies you target those critical for the machine to function. They want to strike those first because they will create a domino effect, where they affect all the technologies and the collapse of the system. You will find the attacks tend to cluster around specific targets.
How do you define technology here? Do you mean any kind of tech application? I’m hearing what you’re saying and thinking this may apply to more than AI.
Oh, of course. It’s not just AI. When these people think of technology they are not just thinking of devices but know-how, the ideology of progress, of social forces shaping society and how it works and how labor is organized. Technology is a complex entity, in a way.
In the early 2010s, for example, you saw attacks on facilities after the Fukushima Daiichi disaster. More recently, you had attacks on companies making semiconductors and microchips, so if you take out microchips you cripple the system. And data centers have been discussed for quite some time — I wouldn’t be surprised if we see something happen there, as well. It’s about identifying technologies that all other tech depends on.
There’s an argument some of them make that there’s only one technology all the other depend on, which is electricity. That’s why we’ve seen attacks on power plants, on different targets related to power.
Are you speaking about organized groups? Discussions and forums? I’m sure you’re referencing people you know of, but help us get a better understanding.
When we look at the violent side of the coin we need to acknowledge first that these networks, these movements, reflect trends we’ve seen in political violence over the last few decades, trends that show us we’re in a post-organizational era of political violence. We have names, we have acronyms, but these names are not as important as they used to be. These are decentralized networks, often leaderless, that operate without solid hierarchies or chains of control. We’re not talking about organizations like Al-Qaeda or the Irish Republican Army. We’re talking about networks in which militants often do not know each other because they interact online.
Some of the networks that have been involved in these kinds of attacks are the Informal Anarchist Federation. It formed in 2003 in Italy and became a global entity around 2011. There’s the Conspiracy of Fire Nuclei, which emerged in Greece and then became international. And then there’s a series of ad hoc groups that have emerged over the decades, sometimes who are only known because they’ll release a communique after an attack. Like there’s Vulkan Group, which has carried out a series of attacks on Tesla factories in Germany. Or Individualists Tending to the Wild.
An affiliation to a network is not motivated by gaining material or support or leadership. It’s almost an identity factor because again, when these individuals carry out attacks on their own, they don’t rely on existing networks for support. They might also only be around for one or two attacks because it’s not the group that matters — it’s the network.
Is it just the rise of modern technology driving this violence? Are there other factors at play inciting events, creating this current wave of attacks?
One of the remarkable qualities of anti-tech extremism is that it’s quite flexible. The way this decentralized system works, especially on the anarchist or eco-extremist side, is one side will carry out an attack in a communique they publish online and then make a call for similar attacks on similar targets. Whether or not attacks occur is up to others in the network. If a campaign is considered not really appealing, this might not take place. If instead it’s deemed appealing, you’ll see more attacks.
Last year there was a campaign a French group started called Welcome Spring, Burn a Tesla, which resulted across Europe in a lot of Tesla dealerships being torched. There was some confusion because there was also a campaign against Elon Musk and Tesla, but that wasn’t carried out by people motivated by anti-tech violence, but instead Musk’s role in the U.S. government.
There can also be things people say that incite. In this case, there was an interview recently where Sam Altman basically said if AI is going to steal all the jobs, then maybe those jobs weren’t “real” in the first place. That type of statement is likely to make a few people annoyed. It’s hard to consider what type of development might constitute a catalyst for violence.
I’m struck by the way you’re describing this movement and the rhetoric and signals. I think about Alex Jones and, for example, the idea that 5G is going to brainwash people on behalf of globalists. Do you see anything in global politics providing kindling to this fire?
This is an interesting question because conspiracy thinking is widespread amongst these groups, that there’s this obscure force at work determining outcomes. But on the other hand it depends. In certain groups of people, there’s such a rejection to anything conventional that you’d find disagreement between those people and the political figures. In others, you might argue influencers or politicians who spread rumors about COVID vaccines or 5G that this idea resonates. For example, I don’t see anarchists paying attention to what a politician says because they’re a part of the problem to begin with.
What can be done to counterbalance this? Is there an oppositional force against this rising tide of anti-tech violence? I’ve been stunned to see the absence of any widespread outrage online at what’s transpired so far. Almost all the commentary has been “good, I’m glad this is happening.”
I’m not surprised you’re saying this about the commentary. I’ve been researching violence for years now, but this is the first time I’ve seen the narratives of extremists reflecting some objective concerns amongst people. It doesn’t mean all those other people are participating in the violence themselves, but concerns about AI are real. People are afraid and scared of these developments they don’t understand. But what they do understand is that it’ll have impacts on their lives, to the extent they’re able to comprehend it.
I think demonizing these concerns driving the violence would be a very foolish thing to do. It’ll confirm narratives of surveillance and control.
Right. I mean, some of these are valid concerns. Water, electricity, job loss, surveillance. All of that. But if demonizing this isn’t the right call, what can be done?
Short term, don’t securitize these concerns but do something to limit the violent manifestations. Most of the solutions will be long term. That’s not what people want. People want solutions with immediate effect.
You can divide the solutions into two groups. The first one is, stakeholders and those who develop technologies have to be responsibilized. Going back to that Altman interview, these kinds of comments are not doing us a favor in trying to solve the violence — not to mention other stakeholders can be even more incendiary. You can also limit the problem in how the technologies are used. If we see AI is used to monitor people at protests and demonstrations, acquire and execute attacks in warfare, it can only get worse from here. These applications of AI don’t do us a favor.
Then on a philosophical level, we all need to change the way we relate to technology. We need to go from a position where we think, “What does this allow me to do?” We need to instead think, “Within those activities, let’s select those that will further our connections with one another and with nature.”
What about eco-modernism? Techno-optimism? Are those ideologies solutions or antidotes? Or are they inadequate to address the sheer degree of pessimism and anxiety driving this violence?
From what I can see, doomerism and pessimism is now so widespread that I don’t think those ideologies can work. A lot of people in younger generations believe we are doomed. They believe climate change is going to ruin our lives. There’s wars, geopolitical conflicts. We’re stuck with dystopian visions of the future. This isn’t confined to anti-tech stuff, so therefore optimism has very limited effects.
What gives you hope?
That’s funny because I’m working on a project that concludes there’s no hope.
I didn’t think that was going to be a hard question.
There’s a growing acknowledgement that people may be too dependent on technology. Hopefully we’ll manage to be less dependent on technology and more conscious of what it’s doing to us. An awareness that AI has tremendous environmental impacts.
With acknowledgement is where you need to start. That’s the little hope I have.