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Earlier this month, the electric-car maker Rivian announced its new SUV, the R2 — a $45,000 family hauler that will get more than 300 miles in range. It also debuted the R3 and R3X hatchbacks, which entranced online car nerds.
These new Rivian models are sleek and important, but they won’t go on sale until 2026 at the earliest. Can Rivian last that long? We also chat about how electric vehicles’ physical requirements — big batteries, high voltage wires — are changing the design of cars themselves.
In this week’s episode, Rob and Jesse discuss Rivian’s quest to survive, how electrification is creating new vehicle categories, and the coolest EVs coming down the pike.
Subscribe to “Shift Key” and find this episode on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Amazon, or wherever you get your podcasts.
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Here is an excerpt from our conversation:
Robinson Meyer: There’s this term called carcinization in evolutionary biology.
Jesse Jenkins: Ooh.
Meyer: People know this meme, which is that things in the sea tend to evolve into crabs. There’s lots of animals that look like crabs in the sea that are not true crabs, so to speak, because the crab is like a very successful bottom dweller form factor. And so animals that do not start as crabs, once they fill the same ecological niche as crabs, will wind up looking like crabs after you know 10 million, 15 million years.
To remember another guy, I have been thinking also a lot of the — again, if you’re not driving, Google this — the 1990s Toyota Previa, which was a kind of, it was a minivan that was like a half oval. It was kind of pill shaped. And again, the wheels were right at the front and right at the back. It was a more successful car, you’ll see it, it was the iconic 90s Toyota minivan.
And I do feel like, to some degree, the whole car market is undergoing this process of carcinization, where what is actually the vehicle that people want the most, especially families want the most, is a minivan. But minivans are not seen as cool or rugged, and so the whole car market is like trying to generate a vehicle that is as close to the Previa as possible but does not look like a mini— You know, it’s not actually, but to some degree I feel like we keep evolving minivans again and again.
If you think about the history of what the family car has been, where it was a station wagon in the 70s and 80s, then it was a minivan. Now it's this crossover SUV thing.
Jenkins: Yeah, because they make a lot of sense.
Meyer: Those are, broadly, very similar cars. They’re very similar, right? They let you seat two to three kids and they give you a lot of space in the back. But as fashion changes and what's cool, we have to keep redesigning that form factor for just what’s trendy at the moment. But we’re just dancing around this common design.
Jenkins: Yeah, it’s really interesting. There’s such a funny love hate relationship out there with minivans. I mean, they are incredibly useful cars, right? But it’s so hard culturally. It’s so hard to be like, Oh, I got a minivan, I gotta drive a minivan now. I turned 40 this year, so I’m right there. I grew up—
Meyer: You're closer to your midlife crisis than I am here.
Jenkins: —in a household with, originally, when I was first born, they had two Volkswagen bugs. And then as we, my sister and I grew up and we needed more space, both my parents traded in their bugs for Volkswagen minibuses. So we had the Volkswagen bus. And it was like the best family car growing up, right? Because we could all camp in it. Like, you know, we could throw the back seat down and put a mattress there. One of us could sleep on the floor, the middle seats. All my friends would fit inside it for trips to the beach. You know, it was just a super useful vehicle.
And of course that, you know, that sort of design atrophied out in terms of the mass market. People still buy them to convert for campers and things like that, like the Volkswagen California and other kinds of models like that in the van segment. But it’s interesting, the ID.4 Buzz is coming back to the market in the U.S. this year, as well. It’s the sort of rebirth of theVolkswagen microbus, and I'm really curious to see how it does because it’s a cool design. It’s a very retro forward, right? Which is very similar to how the R3 looks, I'd say.
I'll come back to that in a minute. But I’m really curious to see how it sells. I know my family’s been really interested in it, waiting for it to come out and see what it actually looks like in real life, and maybe test drive it and see if it’s something we might want in the future. But I would love to see more in that category, right? The van.
And you know, the SUV is really just trying to imitate a van with rugged looks that you really don't need. If you just admit it, you just want a minivan.
This episode of Shift Key is sponsored by…
Advanced Energy United educates, engages, and advocates for policies that allow our member companies to compete to power our economy with 100% clean energy, working with decision makers and energy market regulators to achieve this goal. Together, we are united in our mission to accelerate the transition to 100% clean energy in America. Learn more at advancedenergyunited.org/heatmap
KORE Power provides the commercial, industrial, and utility markets with functional solutions that advance the clean energy transition worldwide. KORE Power's technology and manufacturing capabilities provide direct access to next generation battery cells, energy storage systems that scale to grid+, EV power & infrastructure, and intuitive asset management to unlock energy strategies across a myriad of applications. Explore more at korepower.com.
Music for Shift Key is by Adam Kromelow.
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On routs begetting routs, Google’s second CCS project, and Poland’s nuclear progress
Current conditions: Late-week downpours and cooler temperatures are sweeping into the American Northeast • Record floods swelled the river in McCaysville, Georgia, near the border with Tennessee, to the point that residents needed aerial rescue • The hottest place on Earth today is Tete, Mozambique, a northwestern city where temperatures are nearing 110 degrees Fahrenheit.
Democrats’ electoral rout of the GOP is giving way to a Wall Street rout on artificial intelligence stocks. The stock market wiped out $2.5 trillion from Asian chipmakers, Texas power producers, New Jersey compute providers, Silicon Valley software giants, and data center developers amid an “AI reality check” that The Wall Street Journal called an “historic rout of tech stocks.” CNBC, meanwhile, called the selloff the great “tech wreck.”
As I wrote yesterday, nearly half of proposed data centers in the country are in states set to be ruled by governors who vowed to crack down on the industry. Texas, where data centers are booming, just elected its first Democratic governor in a generation. Governor-elect Gina Hinojosa, as my colleague Matthew Zeitlin wrote yesterday, campaigned on putting a moratorium on new projects until the legislature could pass new restrictions through law.

Exxon Mobil’s offshore oil bet in Guyana is booming, and Chevron’s gamble on Venezuela reopening is paying off. Both American oil giants are eyeing new patches in South America and Africa, as I previously reported. Shell, on the other hand, is looking further north in the Western Hemisphere. The Anglo-Dutch major has bid $150 million for licenses off the coast of Canada’s Newfoundland and Labrador. Upstream described the offer as “big exploration dollars.”
The move comes as Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney looks to transform the country into an energy superpower in hopes of gaining leverage over the U.S. following President Donald Trump’s repeated threats to absorb Canada as the 51st state.
Hopes of passing the Senate’s permitting reform deal have dimmed since Democrats pulled off the party’s biggest legislative victory in half a century this week. The win emboldened progressive critics of the Bipartisan American Affordability and Jobs Act who want to put off voting to hold out for a bill with fewer benefits to fossil fuels. But the legislation’s supporters are still pushing for a vote before the next Congress arrives in January. New polling suggests the bill has purchase among voters. In a nationwide survey of 1,000 registered voters taken in the last week of October, 79% of respondents expressed support for the bill after an initial description. After hearing arguments against the legislation, including that it would “rush environmental reviews” and help “big corporations” to “override local communities,” support dropped to 66%.
The poll, commissioned by the centrist think tank Third Way and shared exclusively with me for this newsletter, shows that “Americans want more affordable, reliable energy, and they see the value in legislation that could help deliver it,” analysts Mary Sagatelova and Ryan Fitzpatrick wrote in a memo. Yet the findings come as opposition to the bill mounts. On Thursday night, a spokesperson for the likely next Speaker of the House, Hakeem Jeffries of New York, told Politico reporter Nico Portuondo that the bill “falls short in several areas,” and that the Democrat would not “rubber stamp” the Senate’s deal.
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Google is building its first data center in Wyoming, powered by a 702-megawatt fuel cell and linear generator that uses natural gas fuel paired with carbon capture technology. On Thursday, the Alphabet-owned tech giant confirmed its plans to back the facility as part of a $17 billion investment in the Cowboy State. American Electric Power, the utility it’s partnering with on the project, announced the plans last month. If successful, the project would be Google’s second foray into carbon capture and sequestration technology. As my colleague Matthew Zeitlin reported last year, the company got into the CCS game with plans to build a project at a site in Illinois.
Poland’s plan to build its first nuclear power plant with three Westinghouse AP1000s reached a key milestone Thursday as the state-owned developer behind the project inked a deal for the reactor components. Japanese engineering giant IHI Corporation confirmed to World Nuclear News that it had received a long lead-time order from Westinghouse for the first reactor at the plant. The move comes a month after Polskie Elektrownie Jądrowe, the state-backed company building the nuclear station on its Baltic coast, gave Westinghouse the go-ahead to start ordering parts, which I told you about at the time. A week later, PEJ formally started the bidding process for a second nuclear plant.
Poland’s nascent push into geothermal energy largely stalled last year. But Warsaw granted the city of Kutno in central Łódź Voivodeship about $15 million from the National Fund for Environmental Protection and Water Management to support construction of a geothermal heating plant. The facility would have a maximum output of about 6.4 megawatts-thermal. Once complete, the plant would provide nearly half of Kutno’s heat, according to ThinkGeoEnergy. Cash-strapped France, meanwhile, has suspended applications for a government program meant to support clean methods for producing heat.
Cybertruck, we hardly new ye. Tesla CEO Elon Musk announced during the wee hours of Friday morning that the company would wind down production of the controversial electric truck by the middle of next year. Though Musk predicted before its release that sales could reach 250,000 per year or more, customers failed to embrace the hulking, angular vehicles — Electrek estimates that Tesla sold fewer than 8,000 Cybertrucks in the third quarter of 2026. The company plans to refocus production at its Texas Gigafactory on the self-driving Cybercab, which began offering rides in Austin, Texas, at the beginning of September.
Two longtime climate strategists have four ways the new congressional majority can get it right.
On Tuesday, voters handed Democrats control of both the House and the Senate and flipped control of numerous governorships and state legislatures throughout the country. Its clear affordability was high among their concerns. Gas cost more than on any Election Day on record, and electricity bills keep climbing as demand grows faster than it has in decades.
Democrats now have a mandate to lower energy costs by building more homegrown clean energy, a chance to stop the administration from blocking new projects, and an opportunity to begin building a post-Trump American energy policy. Yet the president still holds veto power and control over federal agencies, diminished though they may be. The next administration will inherit a federal government that has been largely hollowed out, its agencies stripped of much of their staff, expertise, and institutional knowledge.
That puts states at the center of what comes next. A new class of governors and state lawmakers — including six new Democratic trifectas — will take office in 2027 ready to act on energy affordability. Given the limited opportunities in Washington, federal lawmakers will need to rely on state governments to advance an effective national energy agenda, both now and under the next administration. The question before them is how to design policy with that in mind from the start.
The 2022 Inflation Reduction Act offers both a model and a warning. The IRA has been transformative, catalyzing hundreds of billions of dollars in clean energy investment, supporting good jobs and domestic manufacturing, and driving economic growth nationwide. But with hindsight, one clear shortcoming emerges: Federal decision-makers too often treated states as grant recipients rather than institutional partners capable of deploying capital and shaping energy markets. This attitude hampered the law’s speed, effectiveness, and durability.
For instance, to implement the law’s Home Energy Rebates — an $8.8 billion program designed to operate through state energy offices and deliver energy efficiency and cost savings for consumers — the Department of Energy required states to navigate an unusually complex approval process. Many states had to hire outside consultants just to apply. Nearly five years after the law’s passage, only a handful have gotten their projects off the ground. The ambitions were real; the architecture made them slow.
The Environmental Protection Agency’s $20 billion Greenhouse Gas Reduction Fund offers a similar lesson. The GGRF was inspired by the growth of state and local green banks, and like them was designed to provide low-cost financing to clean energy projects throughout the country. Those same state-level green banks with local market knowledge and lending experience were well-positioned to deploy capital into local projects, yet they did not receive program funding directly. In consequence, only a small number of existing green banks received a small amount of this funding — less than 10% of the total available — before the Trump administration froze the program in its entirety. DOE’s Loan Programs Office, meanwhile, had $40 billion in authority to loan to state energy financing institutions, but it executed zero such loans.
These aren’t isolated examples. They’re symptoms of a systematic failure by the federal government to treat states as partners in the process of designing and implementing policy. In recent years the federal government has generally engaged with governors and state policymakers through intergovernmental affairs offices staffed with political appointees that treat states more like stakeholders to be managed than governing partners.
State governments are the machinery through which energy policy becomes real. They regulate utilities. Their laws govern the siting and permitting of energy infrastructure, including the data centers now reshaping electricity demand. They oversee housing and land use. And they run the economic development and financing agencies that work to expand local economies. Policies built around these state institutions can move faster, deliver greater local benefits, and last longer — especially as federal policy careens in wildly different directions every few years. Had the federal-state partnership been stronger from the start, IRA funding might have been deployed more quickly and delivered impact sooner in both red and blue districts, making it much more difficult for the Trump administration to roll back these policies.
For Democrats looking to advance an agenda that can deliver more affordable, reliable and clean energy, there’s never been a better time for this partnership, given the 30 governorships their party will hold starting in 2027 — the most in over 30 years.
So, looking ahead, what should happen next time?
Invest in state capacity quickly. For all their powerful authorities, state agencies often lack budget and staff capacity. The IRA mostly routed its dollars around them through tax credits, federal loans, and competitive grants. The few programs it did run through states, such as the home energy rebates, came with detailed federal requirements. Those safeguards were well intentioned, meant to protect consumers and guarantee results. But they assumed a capacity states never had the funding to build.
Formula funding, by contrast, is a no-regrets strategy to build that capacity. These are funds designed by federal lawmakers to be dispersed to all states based on a numeric formula (e.g. population or other appropriate quantitative metric), and are generally made to be easy for states to access. For example, DOE’s State Energy Program has delivered formula grants to all state energy offices, helping to fund their operations for over 40 years. According to the National Association of State Energy Officials, each federal dollar distributed through the program has leveraged more than $10 in state and private investment. EPA’s Clean Air Act programs similarly provide flexible grants to state environmental agencies. Future legislation should multiply the amounts of formula funding available in the IRA and streamline access. It should also pair these efforts with competitive funding that rewards cutting-edge state policies and cross-state collaborations that move industries and markets toward cleaner technologies.
Capitalize state financing institutions directly. States have long managed infrastructure finance, from the 1960s birth of housing finance agencies, to clean water state revolving funds, to federal funding for surface transportation infrastructure — all of which is now intrinsic to how infrastructure is built in this country. That model should now also anchor the next generation of clean energy infrastructure finance — for states to drive locally-impactful projects and economic development. DOE’s authority to lend to state institutions also remains intact.
Leverage state authority where it’s strongest. State public utilities commissions have a longstanding role in regulating the nation’s electric utilities. Federal policymakers should use this to their advantage, providing federal grants to expand PUC staff and expert capacity to oversee utility planning and rate cases. The State Energy Oversight Act, for example, would provide formula funding to state public utility commissions for financial and technical assistance. In addition to supporting their day-to-day role in utility regulation, this could also empower commissions to ensure that new federal tax incentives and investments deliver effective ratepayer relief — a true federal-state partnership that delivers on energy affordability.
States are also closest to the siting, permitting, and interconnection barriers now constraining low-cost clean energy expansion. The next generation of federal energy legislation should build upon and help proliferate state policy innovations like Michigan’s Renewable Ready Communities program, which helps local governments buy into locating energy developments in their towns, and Texas’s connect-and-manage interconnection process, which adds new energy faster than any other U.S. grid.
At the same time, federal policymakers shouldn’t ask states to lead delivery of every program. Where incentives can clearly benefit individual consumers and companies and reorient markets toward more affordable clean technologies, direct federal incentives — especially the IRS’s existing tax filing infrastructure — can be more efficient than new state programs built from scratch. The federal government also has a critical role to play in supporting technology innovation and expediting permitting for projects that cross state lines.
Finally, future federal leaders must prioritize clarity, simplicity, and speed. The next energy legislation should streamline requirements and include real deadlines, backed by deep White House engagement with governors of both parties. That should include stronger regional federal staff support — for example the EPA maintains regional offices throughout the country, while DOE does not. This agenda must also be led by senior officials with genuine authority, not those buried in an intergovernmental affairs office.
States haven’t waited. Green banks now operate all across the country. Forty-five states have built climate plans that are ready to be acted upon. Twenty-four states are committed to achieving 100% clean energy. And this week’s elections have delivered new state leaders ready to build a more affordable energy economy. States are already building America’s energy future. Washington’s job, next time, is to trust them — and build alongside them.
The gains set up Democrats to potentially flip the utility commission in 2028.
The blue wave has officially reached the Arizona down ballot. Though two Democratic wins in the Arizona Corporation Commissioner race might not drum up the same national coverage as, say, flipping a Senate seat in South Carolina, the election of Clara Pratte and Jonathon Hill to the five-seat commission could have major energy implications in a state that already saw renewables champions take over the state’s largest utility earlier this year. (With close margins in slow-to-count Arizona, the ACC race wasn’t officially called until Thursday evening, when both Republicans conceded.)
Arizona is one of 10 states that elects its utility commissioners, with the ACC regulating private water, gas, and electric companies in the state. That includes overseeing Arizona Public Service and Tucson Electric Power, where bills have increased 52% and 10%, respectively, over the past five years, per Heatmap’s data. (The publicly owned Salt River Project, which serves much of the Phoenix area, operates largely without ACC oversight.)
The ACC has been wholly in Republican hands since 2024; during that time, the body repealed Arizona’s Electric Efficiency Standards, which had incentivized utilities to pursue energy efficiency programs, as well as the state’s Renewable Energy Standard and Tariff, which supported the build-out of solar and wind power. “They were a rubber stamp for all our utilities and refused to even consider anything in support of protecting our climate,” Arizona State Representative Brian Garcia, who was reelected on Tuesday, said during a press call with Lead Locally this week. “At one instant, one of the commissioners told someone who got sick from the heat — who turned off their power and their AC — ‘Well, that’s on them.’ And I think our state and our communities have had enough of that.”
Though the ACC remains under Republican control despite the two Democratic additions, it puts full control within a one-seat striking distance for progressives when the other three seats are up in 2028 — a much easier fight to win, and potentially a huge one, given that the party hasn’t controlled the ACC since 1997.
Of particular concern in 2026, though, was the development of data centers. Ralph Heap, a Republican in the race who made the League of Conservation Voters’ 12-person “worst of the worst” list out of all 6,342 seats up for grabs nationwide on Tuesday, previously told the Arizona Capitol Times he supports the data center build-out in the name of American AI dominance. Incumbent Republican Kevin Thompson, meanwhile, has argued that the commission “has done its job of shielding ratepayers from costs associated with servicing data centers and other large load users.”
Voters evidently disagreed, backing Hill and Pratte, who say they support a data center moratorium. “The Corporation Commission might not be able to implement a pause, but I think they can certainly be a clearinghouse for information,” Hill told Yellow Sheet Report, an Arizona political tipsheet, acknowledging the relatively limited role the ACC actually has in regulating data centers beyond demanding transparency of utilities’ energy service agreements.
There are other concerns, too. Climate organizers zeroed in on the ACC race because of its influence over the solar buildout in the nation’s sunniest state, where nevertheless six of the state’s 15 counties have a restrictive ordinance against the resource, Heatmap Pro data shows. Commissioner-elect Pratte, a member of the Navajo Nation and the first Indigenous person elected to statewide office in Arizona, is also the co-founder of Navajo Power, a clean-energy company that helps tribal nations develop solar energy and storage projects.
Arizona Public Service and Tucson Electric Power also both have pending rate increase requests under review by the ACC; a 14% rate increase for residential customers and a 45% or more increase for data centers in the case of APS, and a 10% increase for residential customers in the case of TEP. (The APS’ rate case will likely be decided in December, before Pratte and Hill take their seats.)
Additionally, State Senator Lauren Kuby has introduced a bill to change the name of the ACC to the Arizona Public Utility Commission, a move intended to highlight to voters “its significance to their daily lives,” as she told the Arizona Capitol Times earlier this year. Sure enough, John Qua, the campaign director at Lead Locally, and Caroline Spears, the executive director of Climate Cabinet, previously told my colleague Matthew Zeitlin that part of the trouble with supporting progressive candidates in the ACC race was communicating to Arizona voters that, like the race for governor, it is a partisan election.
But given how things turned out Tuesday nationwide — a referendum on cost-of-living and, perhaps, data centers — it seems they needn’t have worried. Arizonans worked out exactly who to blame.