Shift Key Live: The 2025 Elections, the Gates Memo, and More

It’s been a huge few weeks for climate news. Democrats swept state and local elections in New Jersey, Virginia, California, and New York City — and won two crucial regulatory races in Georgia. A few weeks before, the climate tech investor and philanthropist Bill Gates released a memo arguing for a pivot on climate funding vis a vis global health.

On this special episode of Shift Key, Rob talks to Heatmap staff writers Emily Pontecorvo and Matthew Zeitlin about what the 2025 elections might mean for climate policy, why “affordability” politics could hamper decarbonization, and whether the Gates memo represents anything but a rebrand. They recorded this conversation live at the Yale School of Management’s annual clean energy conference in New Haven, Connecticut.

Shift Key is hosted by Robinson Meyer, the founding executive editor of Heatmap, and Jesse Jenkins, a professor of energy systems engineering at Princeton University. Jesse is off this week.

Subscribe to “Shift Key” and find this episode on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Amazon, or wherever you get your podcasts.

You can also add the show’s RSS feed to your podcast app to follow us directly.

Here is an excerpt from our conversation:

Robinson Meyer: When you talk to clean energy people about this race [for the Georgia Public Service Commission], how did they explain the stakes? Because one thing I've wondered is that, back during the Biden administration, when you talked to Biden energy officials about nuclear and about why nuclear was often unsuccessful, those officials — who are Democrats — would say, Oh, you gotta do what they did in Georgia. Look what they did in Georgia. That plant ran mega-over-budget and they just kept ratebasing it, and those ratepayers could absorb it. And that's how you should do nuclear, is find a sufficiently big electricity market where you can just begin pushing costs into the electricity market.

I'd also hear, to be fair, Biden energy officials basically saying, We have to authorize as many AP1000s as we can, which is the nuclear reactor that was built around Vogtle, that was built in Georgia. We have to authorize and get as many of these started as we can before the rate increases start hitting Georgia rate payers, because once they do, people are going to turn on the politics of nuclear in a way that maybe we're not anticipating.

Anyway, how did clean energy people think about this? Because one of the biggest drivers of rate increases in Georgia is the Georgia PSC’s total willingness to just keep taking costs from the 24/7 clean electricity giants that are nuclear plants and shoving them on rate payers.

Emily Pontecorvo: I actually think that the clean energy folks were thinking about this more in terms of the risks around a natural gas buildout in Georgia. Because Georgia Power, the biggest electricity utility in the state, has recently, in their most recent resource plan, proposed building, like, five nuclear power plants’ worth of new natural gas in the state to essentially power the data center buildout that they're anticipating. And like I said before, the commission has been known to basically just give them what they ask for, and say yes, and not ask questions, and not ask for alternatives. And also I think the commission has been accused of really stunting the growth of rooftop solar, facilitating more utility-scale solar but kind of stunting rooftop solar.

And so the Democrats really campaigned on saying, We're going to look at that resource plan, and we're going to ask questions, and we're going to ask to see what an alternative scenario with more renewable energy would look like. So I think those were the stakes.

Now, whether they're going to get anywhere is another question. Because of the lawsuits and the strange timeline for this election, one of the candidates will only serve for one year before having to be reelected. They also are only two out of five seats on the commission. The other three are Republicans. And so, it's a little bit unclear where they're going to find points of agreement with the other folks on the commission.

Mentioned:

How Mikie Sherrill Won New Jersey’s Electricity Election, by Matthew

Democrats Win 2 Key Energy Races in Georgia, by Emily

Zohran Mamdani’s Muted Climate Politics, by Rob

7 New Takes From Bill Gates on Climate ‘Doomsday’ Talk and Global Health

Where Bill Gates Got It Wrong, by Zeke Haufather

Previously on Shift Key: How to Talk to Your Friendly Neighborhood Public Utility Regulator

This episode of Shift Key is sponsored by …

Hydrostor is building the future of energy with Advanced Compressed Air Energy Storage. Delivering clean, reliable power with 500-megawatt facilities sited on 100 acres, Hydrostor’s energy storage projects are transforming the grid and creating thousands of American jobs. Learn more at hydrostor.ca.

Uplight is a clean energy technology company that helps energy providers unlock grid capacity by activating energy customers and their connected devices to generate, shift, and save energy. The Uplight Demand Stack — which integrates energy efficiency, electrification, rates, and flexibility programs — improves grid resilience, reduces costs, and accelerates decarbonization for energy providers and their customers. Learn more at uplight.com/heatmap.

Music for Shift Key is by Adam Kromelow.