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On the president’s environmental legacy, NYC congestion pricing, and winter weather

Current conditions: Extreme heat in southeastern Australia triggered fire bans • More than 260 flood alerts are in place across England and Wales • A snow emergency is in effect in Washington, D.C., where lawmakers are set to gather today to certify President-elect Donald Trump’s 2024 victory.
More than 60 million people across 30 states are under weather warnings as a winter storm bears down. At least seven states have declared emergencies: Kansas, Missouri, Kentucky, Virginia, West Virginia, Arkansas, and New Jersey. One of the hardest-hit cities is Kansas City, Missouri, which got about a foot of snow. The system – dubbed Winter Storm Blair by the Weather Channel – is moving east now and will bring six to 12 inches of snow, as well as icy conditions, to the mid-Atlantic. The National Weather Service warned that “travelers should anticipate significant disruptions.” After this storm passes, temperatures will continue to plunge well below normal throughout much of the nation. “Should the cold wave evolve to its full potential, maximum temperature departures could plunge 30-40 degrees Fahrenheit below the historical average from the northern Plains and Midwest to the interior Southeast through the first two weeks of January,” said AccuWeather meteorologist Alex Duffus. The forecast prompted Jim Robb, the CEO of the North American Electric Reliability Corp., to put out a warning via YouTube about the potential for power outages. Robb urged everyone within the power system to prepare for the worst. “The actions you take now may very well help us avoid the consequences of events such as we saw in Texas in 2021 and in the mid-Atlantic in 2022,” he said. As of this morning, about 300,000 customers were without power across Missouri, Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Virginia, and West Virginia.
The White House today announced that President Biden will move to permanently ban new offshore oil and gas drilling across huge swathes of U.S. coastal waters. “Biden has determined that the environmental and economic risks and harms that would result from drilling in these areas outweigh their limited fossil fuel resource potential,” the administration said. The 625 million acres included in the protections will cover the entire East Coast, the eastern Gulf of Mexico, the Pacific off the coasts of Washington, Oregon, and California, as well as parts of the Northern Bering Sea in Alaska. As Politico noted, most of those areas are of little interest to the oil and gas industry, but “the eastern part of the Gulf of Mexico is believed to hold large untapped reservoirs of oil.” It will be difficult for the incoming Trump administration to dismantle Biden’s ban, but the fossil fuel industry is likely to challenge it. With this decision, Biden will have conserved more lands and waters than any other U.S. president, the White House added. “President Biden has been a steadfast champion for climate progress from Day One of his administration,” Margie Alt, director of the Climate Action Campaign, said in a statement. “His legacy of conservation and advocacy to protect our climate will leave an indelible mark on the health of our communities and our environment.”
The first congestion pricing scheme in the U.S. officially came into effect on Sunday. Drivers entering lower Manhattan during peak hours will now have to pay $9, which is down from the $15 fee originally proposed. Gov. Kathy Hochul paused the ambitious plan last summer, then hastily reinstated it at the lower rate before the incoming Trump administration could do anything to block it. The program aims to reduce traffic and pollution in New York City, with the Metropolitan Transportation Authority estimating it will cut traffic by 10% and raise money to pay for infrastructure upgrades. Its success – or failure – could help inform other cities that might consider similar moves. A “congestion pricing tracker” is monitoring the new scheme’s effect on commutes in real-time. Here’s a snapshot of the data from the Holland Tunnel yesterday, where commute times seem to have been cut down to about 10 minutes from 30 minutes:
After being re-elected as House speaker on Friday, Mike Johnson made it clear that energy policy would be a top priority for the new Congress. “We have to stop the attacks on liquefied natural gas, pass legislation to eliminate the Green New Deal,” Johnson said. “We’re going to expedite new drilling permits, we’re going to save the jobs of our auto manufacturers, and we’re going to do that by ending the ridiculous EV mandates.” Of course, there is no actual “Green New Deal” to eliminate, nor any EV mandates to end. Those minor details aside, Johnson’s message signalled that the fight over President Biden’s landmark climate and energy policies has only just begun. “It is our duty to restore America’s energy dominance,” Johnson said, “and that’s what we’ll do.”
In case you missed it: The Fish and Wildlife Service on Friday finalized a decision to expand the boundaries of a Georgia wildlife refuge by 22,000 acres. The new boundaries for the Okefenokee National Wildlife Refuge, the largest blackwater swamp in North America, will include some lands that mining company Twin Pines Minerals had hoped to use to mine titanium dioxide. Environmental groups (and the Biden administration) opposed the mine; Interior Secretary Deb Haaland said it “poses an unacceptable risk to the long-term hydrology” of the swamp. In its statement, the FWS called the expansion “minor,” but said it would help “strengthen protection of the hydrological integrity of the swamp, provide habitat for the gopher tortoise, mitigate impacts of wildfires, and provide opportunities for longleaf pine restoration to benefit the red-cockaded woodpecker.”
Thirteen of the world’s busiest oil ports could be badly damaged by rising sea levels as soon as 2070, according to recent scientific analysis.
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The Iran war has been a gift to the country’s vehicle, solar, and battery business.
This is Heatmap Daily, a weekday evening digest written by our executive editor.
Happy Monday and welcome back. For months now, we’ve been talking about how the U.S. and Israel’s war in Iran has been a boon for electric vehicles, clean energy, and (unfortunately) coal.
But today we got data that confirms: This clean energy export boom is not just a side story. It is one of the brighter spots in the overall Chinese economy, which remains the world’s second largest.
According to economic data released on Monday, China grew 4.5% during the summer quarter as compared to the quarter from a year earlier. That means the country will likely hit its growth target this year, albeit on the low end.
The country’s economic expansion wasn’t driven by domestic consumption, however. Consumer confidence remains low, and residential investment has yet to return after the property crash earlier this decade.
Instead, booming exports are now driving China’s economy. Exports were more than 36% higher in September than a year earlier, driven by chips, ships, electric vehicles, and solar panels and batteries. The country will likely record its biggest trade surplus ever this year.
Some of those categories are clearly flourishing thanks to the global AI boom — think chips and even batteries. But the preponderance of vehicle exports suggests surging oil prices aren’t hurting. Sales of ‘new energy vehicles,’ a category that includes 100% electric vehicles and plug-in hybrids, were up more than 13% on a year-over-year basis in September, according to the Chinese car manufacturer’s trade group. But exports of these vehicles are booming. Battery electric vehicles were up 130% last month compared to the same period in 2025, and plug-in hybrid exports were up more than 200%.
It’s interesting to consider how much the Chinese and U.S. economy are mirroring each other at this moment. Americans are dealing with a remarkable investment boom, which is buoying the labor market and stubbornly maintaining high inflationary pressure. China is struggling with deflation, and exports are its quickest path to growth. (Consumer sentiment in both countries, interestingly, seems to be in the doldrums, even though American consumers appear to be in much better shape.)
When thinking about what artificial intelligence could do for the United States over the next decade, some subject-matter prognosticators (and even some Anthropic employees) imagine a world of 4%, 5%, or even 7% GDP growth. Such a growth rate is difficult even to envision in the modern era, of course, and it seems like it could propel the U.S. economy to staggering prosperity.
I know better than to make a prediction about where we’re headed. But amateur economic commentators should keep China in mind, too: a country that dominates along many technological axes, but where the standard economic math of supply, demand, and consumer sentiment still holds. Except if the United States economy were to stumble, no exterior source of demand will come to our rescue.
Endurance Energy hoped its generator would run for a full year, but the team isn’t afraid of the “error” in “trial and error.”
About 300 miles off the Oregon coast, a mile beneath the ocean’s surface, a startup just drilled the world’s first subsea geothermal well. And for a grand total of exactly 8.7 seconds, its prototype power plant generated about 2 kilowatts of net power. It wasn’t quite the result the Seattle-based Endurance Energy was hoping for — the company’s goal was to run its 100-kilowatt generator for a full year. But it’s not nothing.
“We really proved with this mission that a geothermal well could be drilled and completed on the seafloor, and doing that within 21 months of the company existing I think is really a testament to our pace of progress,” Endurance CEO Andrew Redd told me.
A former SpaceX engineer — as so many climate tech founders seem to be — Redd appears quite comfortable with the rapid trial-and-error cycles that hard tech startups often demand. Or as he stated in the company’s press release, which provides a refreshingly frank account of what this first test did and didn’t accomplish, “We follow the adage ‘make it exist, then make it good.’”
Investors seem to be buying it. In June, the startup raised a $54 million Series A, led by Peter Thiel’s Founders Fund — Endurance’s second funding round in less than two years of existence. Still, the team certainly has their work cut out for them. The ocean is a notoriously difficult operating environment: Saltwater is corrosive and offshore infrastructure is difficult and expensive to build, maintain, and repair.
Indeed, Endurance spent the first 11 days of its three-week stint at sea debugging its drill, which the team had never operated underwater before. But with a vessel chartered and a locked-in deployment date, the company couldn’t afford to wait for everything to work out perfectly. “We were still working on that generator hours before it got on the seafloor,” Redd told me. He’s used to that sort of thing, though, comparing it to making final tweaks to rockets already sitting on the launchpad. “That’s kind of the name of the game,” he said.
The trial took place at Axial Seamount, an active underwater volcano and the only place in the world with a cluster of hydrothermal vents connected to shore by fiber optic cable, which allows the Endurance team to monitor and control its system in real time from Seattle. While this was the company’s fifth deep-sea mission, it was the team’s first attempt to actually drill their own well.
After lowering their drill about a mile below the surface, the team bored two holes and turned the second into a well about 2 inches wide, lining it with pipe and sealing it with cement. But after losing so much time to debugging, the team only managed to drill about 52 feet deep — far short of its original 200-foot target.
Water then flowed up the well at about 260 degrees Celsius (around 500 degrees Fahrenheit), but the narrow borehole proved too restrictive to deliver enough heat for the generator to operate. So the team pivoted, connecting the generator directly to a naturally flowing, hotter hydrothermal vent instead. The generator then ran for a total of 29 seconds, producing about 2 kilowatts of net power for 8.7 seconds. That represents the total electricity the turbine generated, minus the 7 to 8 kilowatts needed to run its supporting components, such as the refrigerant pump and other onboard equipment.
Then a software glitch triggered the onboard battery safety system, which shut down the plant. When the team tried to restart the system, the power cable feeding the refrigerant pump failed, leaving the pump unable to restart. That was the end of the road. The mission wrapped up after three weeks at sea, a far shorter run than the team had hoped.
“The success criteria would be if we had left with the generator still on the seafloor; that would have been an example of sustained net power, and we didn’t get there,” Redd told me. Instead, the team brought the system back to Endurance’s Seattle headquarters, where it’s fixing the software as well as refurbishing and upgrading the hardware — which includes changing how it builds and tests subsea cables — to prepare for another mission sometime this winter. This time, the goal will be to generate sustained power from a much deeper well.
The team will need to demonstrate progress soon to keep its next major milestone on track: a planned 2-megawatt deployment off the coast of Tonga by the end of 2027. The project aims to supply electricity directly to the Tongan grid, which today is heavily dependent on expensive, imported diesel. Redd expects subsea geothermal to be cost-competitive with that fuel in this first pilot.
Getting there, however, is a formidable engineering challenge. While it’s long been a subject of academic curiosity, no one prior to Endurance had ever drilled an offshore geothermal well before, meaning the team can’t simply transplant existing land-based technology to the seafloor. “Every component that you would use terrestrially now needs to be either modified or built completely from scratch,” Redd explained. “And so you multiply that across every component required to make these kinds of infrastructure projects happen, and it’s a lot of work.”
No kidding. But if Endurance can pull it off, Redd sees this resource as “the perfect energy source for the future.” A conference paper presented by the geoscience company Viridien last year estimates that offshore geothermal resources worldwide could yield about 6 terawatts of recoverable electric power — nearly twice the world’s current continuous electricity output.
“We can access terawatts of power. There’s no fuel. We can site next to extremely large cities around the Pacific. We have no surface presence,” Redd said, ticking off the advantages. Plus, the three necessary ingredients for a high-quality geothermal well — permeable rock, high heat, and water — are widely accessible offshore, he added. Eventually, he expects subsea geothermal to undercut natural gas in Endurance’s target markets: electricity grids, industrial facilities, and data centers across the Pacific Islands, the U.S. West Coast, and Northeast Asia, all of which sit along the undersea volcanic zone known as the “Ring of Fire.”
The way Redd sees it, advances in subsea technology pioneered by the offshore wind, oil, and gas industries have cleared much of the technological path to making underwater geothermal a viable clean energy resource. In his view, what’s been missing is simply the ambition to chase the opportunity in the private market. SpaceX, he said, really proved what’s possible for a scrappy startup to achieve.
“It is quite new at industrial scale for a small company with a bunch of fairly young people to go after something like this,” he told me. “Before SpaceX went to launch a rocket as a private company, no one thought you could get to orbit as a private company. And so that has really seeded this ambition.”
On Greenland’s deepsea mining ban, Indonesia floating nuclear, and a solar boom
Current conditions: Hurricane Trudy has weakened from its peak as a Category 2 storm but still threatens up to 8 inches of rain as it swirls off Baja California • A nor’easter is howling through the Mid-Atlantic this week, hammering the coast with winds of up to 70 miles per hour • A humid overcast has settled over Paris this week as French authorities struggle to regain control after protests over living costs gave way to anarchic riots.
At least 47 major data center projects have been delayed, withdrawn, or blocked so far this year, according to data the regulatory intelligence service RegLayer shared with the Financial Times — and that may be a “conservative estimate.” Just 35% of planned data centers are “credible,” analysts told the newspaper, as more than 1,000 communities across the United States now have restrictions on artificial intelligence infrastructure. The data comes as investors look increasingly jittery about AI following ChatGPT-maker OpenAI’s missing a key revenue metric this year.
Those findings stand in contrast with the numbers from our data service, Heatmap Pro. Based on our research, at least 107 projects faced cancellation so far this year, putting 2026 on track to beat last year, which saw 108 proposals nixed.
Unless you’re living off the grid and away from any social media (if so, I’m jealous), then you can probably surmise that not-in-my-backyard opposition prevails in many such cases against proposed data centers. That makes selling would-be neighbors on the projects critical. New polling by the advocacy group GoodPower found that a binding promise to protect local electricity rates boosts support for the projects upward by as much as 14 points. Such a pledge worked primarily on the 78% of voters who distrust data centers. Another potential winner: Pair a data center with renewables. At least 46% of respondents to the poll said their support would increase if a project were powered by renewables. The survey spoke to 2,610 registered voters last month and oversampled in states with at least 200 data centers completed: Arizona, Georgia, Indiana, Pennsylvania, Texas, and Virginia.
Greenland wants to find ways to exploit its mineral riches in hopes of generating enough income from industries other than fishing and tourism to eventually wean off subsidies from the governments of Denmark and the European Union. Earlier this month, as you may recall, the self-governing Danish island gave a project the green light. But the government in Nuuk doesn’t want miners harvesting metals from the seabed surrounding the Arctic island, which are fertile fishing grounds and could, in theory, lead to mineral production without meaningful infrastructure to create jobs for Greenlandic people. Last week, the Greenlandic Parliament adopted a resolution requiring the government to draft legislation banning deep-sea mining. All members present voted to approve the proposal, according to Sermitsiaq, a leading newspaper in Nuuk. The ban would, if adopted, last until the end of 2029, with the possibility of an extension for two years at a time.
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Long before the race for small modular reactors kicked off, Russia launched a floating nuclear power station and sailed the vessel up to the Arctic to power a small town. Now, as you may recall, the state-owned Russian nuclear company Rosatom is making plans to build more floating nuclear plants, and it has a major nuclear newcomer nation as an offtaker. Last week, NucNet reported, Rosatom announced a deal with Indonesia’s state-owned PT Pembangkit Listrik Nuklir to supply electricity to northern Indonesia from at least two floating nuclear plants with a capacity of 200 megawatts each.

Over the past decade, small-scale and rooftop solar systems increased from 18,812 gigawatt-hours to 92,979 gigawatt-hours, an increase of over 394%. That’s according to a new analysis from the Energy Information Administration, which found that California, Arizona, Texas, Florida are the regions with the most abundant solar resources. Even though the state has worse solar resources in general, New York ranked fifth as a result of growing capacity. Still, the rate of growth in generation has slowed over the past three years. l
The Trump administration is pulling out all the stops for Alaskans who want to drill and transport fossil fuels, mine minerals, and log trees. Now he’s easing rules on hunters. A new final rule from the National Park Service has revived a hunting method the Biden administration banned in 2024: Baiting bears with doughnuts soaked in bacon grease. Hunters use the baits to lure bears to close range before shooting them. “Some hunters prefer to use strong-smelling, high-calorie foods like pastries, doughnuts, meat scraps or fish remains to lure bears from miles away,” The New York Times reported. “But some conservationists say the practice is unethical and risks making the bears accustomed to human food, which could endanger people.”