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On Democrats’ big decision, peak oil, and Rep. Grijalva

Current conditions: A severe storm system this weekend threatens 30 states with extreme weather ranging from fires to blizzards to tornadoes • Schools are closed in Florence after heavy rain triggered floods in Italy • The La Niña weather pattern looks to be on its way out.
Members of Congress have until midnight to pass a stopgap bill to fund the federal government, or else face a government shutdown. The House approved the GOP legislation earlier this week, but the Senate has yet to do so (though Democratic Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer said he’d vote for it), and Democrats have concerns about its contents. The bill would keep funding the government at current levels until September, though it would also increase defense spending by $6 billion and decrease non-defense spending by $13 billion. There are a few items in the bill that are related to climate change and energy, including:
The bill does not boost the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s disaster relief fund, nor does it include disaster relief for California. But it does raise federal wildland firefighters’ pay.
In a speech announcing he would support the measure, Schumer said “a shutdown would give Donald Trump the keys to the city, the state, and the country.”
Five farms and three environmental nonprofits are suing the Trump administration for unlawfully freezing Department of Agriculture grants awarded through the Inflation Reduction Act. The grants for farmers were to go toward energy efficiency upgrades like solar panel installations. The farmers say they’ve already started investing in these upgrades with the expectation that the government would pitch in, and now they have bills to pay. The nonprofits were awarded Forest Service grants to support tree equity in historically underserved communities. “The Trump administration’s unlawful actions are hurting communities across the country,” said Hana Vizcarra, senior attorney at Earthjustice, which filed the lawsuit. “This is not government efficiency. It is thoughtless waste that inflicts unwarranted financial pain on small farmers and organizations trying to improve their communities.”
Insurers are worried that the Trump administration’s cuts to key science programs across the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, NASA, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, and the U.S. Geological Survey will make it harder for them to forecast natural disaster risks like hurricanes, according to the Financial Times. As Heatmap’s Jeva Lange has reported, NOAA collects more than 20 terabytes of environmental data from Earth and space daily, and through its paleoclimatology arm, it has reconstructed climate data going back 100 million years. Layoffs at NOAA are hampering those data collection efforts, introducing gaps and inconsistencies. Flawed and incomplete data results in degraded and imprecise forecasts. In an era of extreme weather, the difference of a few miles or degrees can be a matter of life or death. While Congress mandates that certain data be collected, it does not mandate that data be made public, creating the risk that the administration could cut off access. The FT reports that lobbyists from the insurance industry have been urging Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick not to do that.
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The energy industry’s annual CERAWeek conference comes to a close today. Most of the biggest headline-making news (Energy Secretary Chris Wright saying climate change is a “trade off” for modernization; Interior Secretary Doug Burgum pushing to reopen coal plants; tech giants pledging to support a target of tripling nuclear capacity by 2050) happened in the event’s first two days. But one theme bubbling in the background is that peak oil production isn’t far off. Some oil and gas executives, including Occidental Petroleum CEO Vicki Hollub and ConocoPhillips CEO Ryan Lance, projected that U.S. oil production will peak before 2030. “We don’t have many oil plays left in this country,” shale pioneer Scott Sheffield told Bloomberg. “The inventory is getting worse, naturally, because we drill so many wells. You’re fighting the inventory deterioration at the same time you’re trying to improve efficiencies.”
U.S. oil producers will meet with President Trump next week to talk trade, tariffs, and LNG.
Representative Raúl Grijalva, Democrat of Arizona, died yesterday at the age of 77 from cancer complications. Grijalva served 12 terms in Congress and was a champion of environmental protection, including as chair of the U.S. House Natural Resources Committee. “He led the charge for historic investments in climate action, port of entry modernization, permanent funding for land and water conservation programs, access to health care for tribal communities and the uninsured, fairness for immigrant families and Dreamers, student loan forgiveness, stronger protections for farmers and workers exposed to extreme heat, early childhood education expansion, higher standards for tribal consultation, and so much more,” Grijalva’s office said in a statement. He helped write the National Landscape Conservation System Act and the Federal Lands Restoration Act, and advocated for permanently protecting the Grand Canyon. A special election will take place later this year to replace him.
Greenhouse gas emissions in the United Kingdom fell last year by 3.6% to their lowest levels since 1872.
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Flames have erupted in the “Blue Zone” at the United Nations Climate Conference in Brazil.
A literal fire has erupted in the middle of the United Nations conference devoted to stopping the planet from burning.
The timing couldn’t be worse. Today is the second to last day of the annual climate meeting known as COP30, taking place on the edge of the Amazon rainforest in Belém, Brazil. Delegates are in the midst of heated negotiations over a final decision text on the points of agreement this session.
A number of big questions remain up in the air, including how countries will address the fact that their national plans to cut emissions will fail to keep warming “well under 2 degrees Celsius,” the target they supported in the 2015 Paris Agreement. They are striving to reach agreement on a list of “indicators,” or metrics by which to measure progress on adaptation. Brazil has led a push for the conference to mandate the creation of a global roadmap off of fossil fuels. Some 80 countries support the idea, but it’s still highly uncertain whether or how it will make its way into the final text.
Just after 2:00 p.m. Belém time, 12 p.m. Eastern, I was in the middle of arranging an interview with a source at the conference when I got the following message:
“We've been evacuated due to a fire- not exactly sure how the day is going to continue.”
The fire is in the conference’s “Blue Zone,” an area restricted to delegates, world leaders, accredited media, and officially designated “observers” of the negotiations. This is where all of the official negotiations, side events, and meetings take place, as opposed to the “Green Zone,” which is open to the public, and houses pavilions and events for non-governmental organizations, business groups, and civil society groups.
It is not yet clear what the cause of the fire was or how it will affect the home sprint of the conference.
Outside of the venue, a light rain was falling.
On Turkey’s COP31 win, data center dangers, and Michigan’s anti-nuclear hail mary
Current conditions: A powerful storm system is bringing heavy rain and flash flooding from Texas to Missouri for the next few days • An Arctic chill is sweeping over Western Europe, bringing heavy snow to Denmark, southern Sweden, and northern Germany • A cold snap in East Asia has plunged Seoul and Beijing into freezing temperatures.

The Trump administration on Wednesday proposed significant new limits on federal protection under the Endangered Species Act. A series of four tweaked rules would reset how the bedrock environmental law to prevent animal and plant extinctions could be used to block oil drilling, logging, and mining in habitats for endangered wildlife, The New York Times reported. Among the most contentious is a proposal to allow the government to consider economic factors before determining whether to list a species as endangered. Another change would raise the bar for enacting protections based on predicted future threats such as climate change. “This administration is restoring the Endangered Species Act to its original intent, protecting species through clear, consistent and lawful standards that also respect the livelihoods of Americans who depend on our land and resources,” Secretary of the Interior Doug Burgum said in a statement.
In Congress, meanwhile, bipartisan reforms to make federal permitting easier are advancing. Representative Scott Peters, the Democrat in charge of the permitting negotiations, called the SPEED Act introduced by Representative Bruce Westerman, the Republican chairman of the Natural Resources Committee, a “huge step forward,” according to a post on X from Politico reporter Josh Siegel. But Peters hinted that getting the legislation to the finish line would require the executive branch to provide “permit certainty,” a thinly-veiled reference to Democrats’ demand that the Trump administration ease off its so-called “total war on wind” turbines.
In World Cup soccer, Turkey hasn’t faced Australia in more than a decade. But the two countries went head to head in the competition to host next year’s United Nations climate summit, COP31. Turkey won, Bloomberg reported last night. Australia’s defeat is a blow not just to Canberra but to those who had hoped a summit Down Under would set the stage for an “island COP.” The pre-conference leaders’ gathering is set to take place on an as-yet-unnamed Pacific island, which had raised hopes that the next confab could put fresh emphasis on the concerns of low-lying nations facing sea-level rise.
More than a dozen states where data centers are popping up could face electric power emergencies under extreme conditions this winter, a grid security watchdog warned this week, E&E News reported. The North American Electric Reliability Corporation listed New England, the Carolinas, most of Texas, and the Pacific Northwest among the most threatened regions. If those emergencies take place, the grid operators would need to import more electricity from other regions and seek voluntary power cutbacks from customers before resorting to rotating blackouts.
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The United States is on the cusp of restarting a permanently shuttered atomic power plant for the first time. But anti-nuclear groups are making a last-ditch effort to block the revival. In a complaint filed Monday in the U.S. District court for the Western District of Michigan, a trio of activist organizations — Beyond Nuclear, Don’t Waste Michigan, and Michigan Safe Energy Future — argued that the plant should never have received regulatory approval for a restart. As I wrote in this newsletter at the time, the Nuclear Regulatory Commission granted plant owner Holtec International permission to go ahead with the restoration in July. Last month, the company — best known for manufacturing waste storage vessels and decommissioning defunct plants — received a shipment of fuel for the single-reactor station, as I reported here. While the opponents are asking the federal judge to intervene, state lawmakers in Michigan are considering new subsidies for nuclear power, Bridge Michigan reported.
Further north along Michigan’s western coastline, a coal-fired power plant set to close down in May got another extension from the Trump administration. In an order signed Tuesday, Secretary of Energy Chris Wright renewed his direction to utility Consumers Energy to hold off on shutting down the facility, which the administration deemed necessary to stave off blackouts. The latest order, Michigan Advance noted, extends until February 17, 2026. President Donald Trump’s efforts to prop up the coal industry haven’t gone so well elsewhere. As Heatmap’s Matthew Zeitlin reported last week, coal-fired stations keep breaking down, with equipment breaking at more than twice the rate of wind turbines.
Matthew had another timely story out yesterday: Members of the PJM Interconnection’s voting base of advisers met Wednesday to consider a dozen different proposals for how to bring more data centers online put forward by data center companies, transmission developers, utilities, state lawmakers, advocates, PJM’s market monitor, and PJM itself. None passed. “There was no winner here,” PJM chief executive Manu Asthana told the meeting following the announcement of the vote tallies. There was, however, “a lot of information in these votes,” he added. “We’re going to study them closely.” The grid operator still aims to get something to federal regulators by the end of the year.
Here’s a gruesome protocol that apparently exists when a toothed whale washes up. Federal officials arrived on Nantucket on Wednesday afternoon to remove a beached sperm whale’s jaw. Per the Nantucket Current: “This is being done to prevent any theft of its teeth, which are illegal to take and possess. The Environmental Police will take the jaw off-island.”
Members of the nation’s largest grid couldn’t agree on a recommendation for how to deal with the surge of incoming demand.
The members of PJM Interconnection, the country’s largest electricity market, held an advisory vote Wednesday to help decide how the grid operator should handle the tidal wave of incoming demand from data centers. Twelve proposals were put forward by data center companies, transmission companies, power companies, utilities, state legislators, advocates, PJM’s market monitor, and PJM itself.
None of them passed.
“There was no winner here,” PJM chief executive Manu Asthana told the meeting following the announcement of the vote tallies. There was, however, “a lot of information in these votes,” he added. “We’re going to study them closely.”
The PJM board was always going to make the final decision on what it would submit to federal regulators, and will try to get something to the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission by the end of the year, Asthana said — just before he plans to step down as CEO.
“PJM opened this conversation about the integration of large loads and greatly appreciates our stakeholders for their contributions to this effort. The stakeholder process produced many thoughtful proposals, some of which were introduced late in the process and require additional development,” a PJM spokesperson said in a statement. “This vote is advisory to PJM’s independent Board. The Board can and does expect to act on large load additions to the system and will make its decision known in the next few weeks.”
The surge in data center development — actual and planned — has thrown the 13-state PJM Interconnection into a crisis, with utility bills rising across the network due to the billions of dollars in payments required to cover the additional costs.
Those rising bills have led to cries of frustration from across the PJM member states — and from inside the house.
“The current supply of capacity in PJM is not adequate to meet the demand from large data center loads and will not be adequate in the foreseeable future,” PJM’s independent market monitor wrote in a memo earlier this month. “Customers are already bearing billions of dollars in higher costs as a direct result of existing and forecast data center load,” it said in a quarterly report released just a few days letter, pegging the added charges to ensure that generators will be available in times of grid stress due to data center development at over $16 billion.
PJM’s initial proposal to deal with the data center swell would have created a category for new large sources of demand on the system to interconnect without the backing of capacity; in return, they’d agree to have their power supply curtailed when demand got too high. The proposal provoked outrage from just about everyone involved in PJM, including data center developers and analysts who were open to flexibility in general, who said that the grid operator was overstepping its responsibilities.
PJM’s subsequent proposal would allow for voluntary participation in a curtailment program, but was lambasted by environmental groups like Evergreen Collaborative for not having “any semblance of ambition.” PJM’s own market monitor said that voluntary schemes to curtail power “are not equivalent to new generation,” and that instead data centers should “be required to bring their own new generation” — essentially to match their own demand with new supply.
A coalition of environmental groups, including the Natural Resources Defence Council and state legislators in PJM, said in their proposal that data centers should be required to bring their own capacity — crucially counting demand response (being paid to curtail power) as a source of capacity.
“The growth of data centers is colliding with the reality of the power grid,” Tom Rutigliano, who works on grid issues for the Natural Resources Defense Council, said in a statement. “PJM members weren’t able to see past their commercial interests and solve a critical reliability threat. Now the board will need to stand up and make some hard decisions.”
Those decisions will come without any consensus from members about what to do next.
“Just because none of these passed doesn’t mean that the board will not act,” David Mills, the chairman of PJM’s board of managers, said at the conclusion of the meeting. “We will make our best efforts to put something together that will address the issues.”