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On Fervo’s megadeal tease, steel’s coal gamble, and Norway’s CO2 milestone
Current conditions: Manila is facing severe flooding amid days of monsoon rains • Of the seven Marshall Islands that the U.S. Drought Monitor tracks, two are currently suffering extreme drought, and another three are under severe drought conditions • Wildfires are blazing in Oregon, where the Cram Fire has already scorched nearly 100,000 acres just 50 miles south of Portland.
OpenAI CEO Sam AltmanKevin Dietsch/Getty Images
Six months after the top executives of OpenAI and Softbank stood shoulder to shoulder at the White House to announce a $500 billion joint venture to build out the infrastructure for artificial intelligence across the United States, the so-called Stargate project has yet to complete a deal for a single data center. The companies promised in January to “immediately” invest $100 billion. But in a sign of the dialed-back ambitions, the project is now targeting the more modest goal of constructing one small data center by the end of this year, likely in Ohio, The Wall Street Journal reported.
That’s bad news for the power companies that have lavished in the projected demand from data centers. Crusoe Energy, a developer of gas- and renewable-powered data centers, boasted earlier this year that it was “pouring concrete at three in the morning” to build out its portions of the Stargate project at “ludicrous speed,” Heatmap’s Katie Brigham reported in March. Over the course of just one month this spring, Morgan Stanley ratcheted up its estimates for capital expenditures in cloud computing this year by a whopping $29 billion, to $392 billion, as Heatmap’s Matthew Zeitlin reported in May. Perhaps that’s another AI hallucination.
Fervo Energy’s breakthrough in harnessing fracking technology to tap into the Earth’s molten heat in far more places than ever before effectively launched the next-generation geothermal industry in the U.S. Now the Houston-headquartered startup is poised to vault “enhanced” geothermal power into a gigawatt-scale electricity source.
In a Monday post on LinkedIn, Fervo CEO Tim Latimer teased a “multi-GW development deal” currently in the works. He promised “more to come on this soon.” He did not respond to my inquiry Monday night. The company already has a deal for a 500-megawatt project called Cape Station in Utah, for which it netted a $206 million investment last month. But a project several times that size would put next-generation geothermal in the big leagues with nuclear power as a potential source of large-scale, baseload power.
Shares of Cleveland-Cliffs soared nearly 13% on Monday afternoon after the steelmaker said President Donald Trump’s tariffs had boosted demand. The company’s second-quarter earnings bested estimates, thanks to cost cutting and record steel shipments. CEO Lourenco Goncalves even suggested the company could sell parts of itself in the wake of Japanese steelmaker Nippon Steel’s megadeal to take over American rival U.S. Steel. He confirmed “active conversations” to sell non-core assets but said “everything else is possible.”
On the call, Goncalves also suggested the administration’s embrace of coal had improved market conditions for the company. As my colleague Matthew Zeitlin reported, the chief executive confirmed that Cleveland-Cliffs would abandon its landmark green steel project because the hydrogen it needed was not available widely enough. Instead, Goncalves said, the company would revamp the project “in a way that we preserve and enhance Middletown using beautiful coal, beautiful coke.”
The chief executive of the largest natural gas company in the U.S. is urging Congress to overhaul energy permitting or risk losing the AI race to China. In an interview with the Financial Times, EQT CEO Toby Rice said, “The threat of not getting infrastructure built has only gotten larger — not only from bad actors getting rich by selling energy that could be replaced with American energy — it’s also the threat of China winning the AI race.” Specifically, he called on lawmakers to end what’s called “judicial review,” a period of six years during which opponents of a project can challenge the federal permits in court.
The U.S. has come to the cusp of easing federal permitting for years. After the passage of the Inflation Reduction Act, Democrats tried to ease permitting rules but faced opposition from progressives and conservationists who deemed any relaxing of regulations that could benefit fossil fuels a nonstarter. Democrats tried to revive the issue last year, but Republicans walked away from the negotiations once the election turned in the GOP’s favor. With the One Big Beautiful Bill revoking many of Democrats’ energy priorities, it’s unclear how much leverage Republicans have to restart talks ahead of next year’s midterm elections.
The world’s first carbon shipping terminal designed to permanently store captured CO2 that would have otherwise gone into the atmosphere just took its first shipment, The Washington Post reported. Located on an island on the edge of the North Sea, Norway’s Northern Lights facility accepted 7,500 metric tons of liquefied CO2 from a Norwegian cement factory. The plant — funded by the government in Oslo and fossil fuel companies — could serve as Europe’s primary carbon dump, and as a model for Asian countries looking to establish their own storage facilities.
China’s exports of clean-energy technologies such as solar panels, batteries and electric vehicles shaved 1% of the global emissions outside China last year, a new Carbon Brief analysis found.
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President Trump has had it in for electric vehicle charging since day one. His January 20 executive order “Unleashing American Energy” singled out the $5 billion National Electric Vehicle Infrastructure program by name, directing the Department of Transportation to pause and review the funding as part of his mission to “eliminate” the so-called “electric vehicle mandate.”
With the review now complete, the agency has concluded that canceling NEVI is not an option. In an ironic twist, the Federal Highway Administration issued new guidance for the program on Monday that not only preserves it, but also purports to “streamline applications,” “slash red tape,” and “ensure charging stations are actually built.”
“If Congress is requiring the federal government to support charging stations, let’s cut the waste and do it right,” Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy said in a press release. “While I don’t agree with subsidizing green energy, we will respect Congress’ will and make sure this program uses federal resources efficiently.”
Duffy’s statement stands in sharp contrast to the stance of other federal agencies, including the Environmental Protection Agency and the Department of Energy, which continue to block congressionally-mandated spending programs.
Only time will tell whether the new guidance is truly a win for EV charging, however. It’s a win in the sense that many EV advocates feared the agency would try to kill the program or insert poison pills into the guidance. But it’s unclear whether the changes will speed up NEVI deployment beyond what might have happened had it not been paused.
“The real story to me is the needless delay,” Joe Halso, a senior attorney for Sierra Club, told me. “They took six months to produce something that they could have done in an afternoon, and that didn’t require them to halt the program in the first place. Every day of that delay stalled critical EV charging projects.”
The goal of the NEVI program was to help states install charging stations in areas that the market, on its own, was not serving. States had to submit annual plans to the FHWA for how they would deploy the funds to fill gaps in regional EV charging networks. Once those plans are approved, states could issue requests for proposals from EV charging companies to build the new charging stations and award grants to help get them financed.
In February, Duffy issued a letter to state Departments of Transportation suspending approval of their plans for all fiscal years, pending forthcoming new guidance from the agency. That meant states would not be able to issue new awards, essentially freezing the program. At the time, the agency had approved state spending plans totaling more than $3.2 billion for fiscal years 2022 through 2025. Of that money, states had committed only about $526 million to specific projects.
In early May, 16 states plus the District of Columbia challenged the DOT’s actions in court, winning a preliminary injunction that prevented the agency from suspending or revoking their previously-approved plans. While the injunction unfroze the program in the plaintiff states, about $1.8 billion for the rest of the country was still locked up. But the judge allowed a coalition of national, regional, and community groups, including the Sierra Club, to become parties in the case and fight for the funding to be restored across the board. That means that if the plaintiffs are ultimately successful, the verdict will apply to every state, not just those 16 that filed the case.
The fact that the DOT issued new guidance this week doesn’t change anything about the case, Halso of the Sierra Club told me. The move could wind up delaying the program further.
“This new guidance prolongs the freeze by forcing states to resubmit already approved plans to access money they’re already entitled to,” Halso explained. “And we don’t know if or when federal highways will approve those plans and restore states’ access to money.” The guidance gives states 30 days to submit their plans, though it does allow them to simply re-submit previously-approved versions.
In Monday’s press release, Duffy declared the program’s implementation to date a “failure,” citing the fact that only 16% of the funds had been obligated so far. It’s true that the program has been slow in getting underway. As of this week, there are at least 106 NEVI-funded charging stations with 537 ports across 17 states, Loren McDonald, the chief analyst for the EV charging data analytics firm Paren, told me. That’s a long way off pace to achieve President Biden’s stated goal of installing 500,000 by 2030.
It’s also true that the new rules are simpler. The previous guidance, which was 30 pages long, contained more than five pages of detailed “considerations” states had to follow in developing their plans, which designated specific distances between chargers, required projects to mitigate adverse impacts to the electric grid, and mandated that States target “rural areas, underserved and overburdened communities, and disadvantaged communities,” among other rules. The new guidance, by contrast, is a tight seven pages devoid of almost any obligations not explicitly required by the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law, which created the program.
Under the previous guidance, for example, NEVI-funded stations had to be built within one mile of a federally-designated EV corridor and at no greater than 50-mile increments along those corridors. The new guidance simply says that states should “consider the appropriate distance between stations to allow for reasonable travel and certainty that charging will be available to corridor travelers when needed.”
McDonald told me that some states had been frustrated with the 50-mile siting requirement and would likely welcome that change. NATSO and SIGMA, two industry associations that represent rest stops, travel centers, and fuel marketers, issued a joint statement praising the “flexible, consumer-oriented approach.” They also specifically applauded the guidance for encouraging states to prioritize projects that are built and operated by the site owner. Some NEVI projects were being developed by a third party, such as Tesla, which had to sign a long-term lease with the site owner, like a grocery store or hotel. These agreements took time to work out, and would sometimes fall apart, McDonald told me.
But from McDonald’s vantage point, what was slowing down the program most was the fact that every state had different requirements and a different process for soliciting and scoring proposals from developers. Also, while a few states already had previous experience administering EV charging grant programs, many lacked staff and expertise in the subject. “I don’t mean this the way it’s going to come out,” McDonald said. “But they barely knew how to spell EV charging. A lot of the state DOTs really just were about building roads and bridges, and they had never had to deal with any charging.”
The new DOT guidance doesn’t seek to address either of those issues. “I’m not seeing anything in here that’s going to lead to a significant reduction in time,” McDonald said. “It seems to sort of miss where the lengthy processes were.”
The Zero Emission Transportation Alliance, an industry association, had a more positive outlook. Research associate Corey Cantor told me the new guidance is “workable” for the industry and provides regulatory certainty. When I asked Cantor if the changes the agency made to the guidance would help get more money out the door, he said it “remains to be seen on the implementation side,” but that states had been asking for more flexibility.
Cantor emphasized that it was important for state DOTs to have regulatory certainty and to get the funds flowing again. “Charging anxiety, after the upfront cost of EVs, is one of the highest cited barriers for entry for new adopters of electric vehicles,” he said. “And so getting the charging network filled out is key to helping us move to this next stage of the transition.”
On Sierra Club drama, OBBB’s price hike, and deep-sea mining blowback
Current conditions: Hurricane Erin is making landfall in the Caribbean as the first major storm of the season, lashing islands with winds of up to 80 miles per hour and 7 inches of rain • More than 152 fires have broken out across Greece in the past 24 hours alone as Europe battles a heatwave • Typhoon Podul is expected to make landfall over southeastern Taiwan on Wednesday morning, lashing the island with winds of up to 96 miles per hour.
The Department of Energy selected 11 nuclear projects from 10 reactor startups on Tuesday for a pilot program “with the goal to construct, operate, and achieve criticality of at least three test reactors” by next July 4. The Trump administration then plans to fast-track the successful technologies for commercial licensing. The effort is part of the United States’ attempt at catching up with China, which last year connected its first high-temperature gas-cooled reactor to the grid. The technologies in the program vary among the reactors selected for the program, with some reactors based on Generation IV designs using coolants other than water and others pitching smaller but otherwise traditional light water reactors. None of the selected models will produce more than 300 megawatts of power. The U.S. hopes these smaller machines can be mass produced to bring down the cost of nuclear construction and deploy atomic energy in more applications, including on remote military bases, and even, as NASA announced last week, the moon.
Here are the companies:
The Sierra Club terminated executive director Ben Jealous this week, ending a rocky tenure that culminated earlier this summer in votes of no confidence among statewide chapters, Inside Climate News’ Lee Hedgepeth reported. A former chief executive of the National Association for the Advancement of Colored People and the 2018 Democratic nominee for Maryland governor, Jealous’ rise to the green group’s top job in November 2022 seemed like a watershed moment for what is arguably the nation's most prominent environmental groups. The first non-white leader of the 133-year-old organization promised to close the book on the Sierra Club’s internal wrestling with the racist legacy of its founder, John Muir.
But budget cuts, layoffs, and fights with the group’s union marred his time at the helm. In June, the executive committee of the Sierra Club’s Oregon Chapter voted unanimously to request a vote of no-confidence in Jealous from the national organization’s board, citing his hiring of a senior staff member who was registered as lobbyist for the cryptocurrency exchange Crypto.com, The New York Times’ Claire Brown reported. Weeks later, the Missouri Chapter voted unanimously to make the same request. Allies on the board accused Jealous’ critics of a racist “pattern of misinformation, character assassination, and discrimination” against the first Black man to hold the top job. But the board placed Jealous on leave last month and, on Monday, said in a statement that it had “unanimously voted to terminate Ben Jealous’ employment for cause.”
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The price of power purchase agreements in the U.S. has increased by 4% on average since the passage of President Donald Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill. That’s according to data released this morning by the industry group LevelTen Energy, which called the calculations “the clearest signal yet that the market has already begun to reprice in light of these new risks and headwinds.”
Of the 86 U.S. developers surveyed from the LevelTen Marketplace, 86% said “they are now adapting their approach — either by accelerating construction timelines, reprioritizing project pipelines, or both.” Next Monday, the Treasury Department is due to issue guidance for renewable energy projects accessing federal tax credits, following Trump’s executive order directing the Internal Revenue Service to place new restrictions on solar and wind developers. Industry groups have been “circling the wagons” since the orders release, according to Heatmap’s Emily Pontecorvo, bracing for restrictions that will push up prices for renewables.
The United States is the only major country that hasn’t ratified the United Nations’ 1994 Law of the Sea treaty. Yet the Trump administration has used the country’s “observer” status to push for finalizing a code under the UN-affiliated International Seabed Authority that would allow for permitting commercial mining on the ocean floor. Trump also signed an executive order in April to unilaterally license deep-sea mining if global rules don’t come into effect. At the center of the effort is the Canadian startup The Metals Company, which has designed special machines to harvest mineral-rich nodules on the deep-sea floor. The company and its backers say it’s a cleaner, faster way to increase global mineral supplies than opening more mines on land. But skeptics — including France and China — warn that the rush to industrialize one of the planet’s last untouched wildernesses risks harming fragile and scarcely understood ecosystems, and criticized Washington for threatening to go it alone without international regulations in place.
China was the first country to publicly condemn Trump’s order in April, but Brazil and Panama spoke at last month’s ISA meeting in Kingston, Jamaica, to express support for Beijing’s position, Canary Media’s Clare Fieseler reported from the Caribbean capital.
The sweltering streets of Midtown Manhattan on July 29, 2025. Spencer Platt/Getty Images
Great news for anyone who, like me, is getting increasingly spooked about microplastics: New research in the journal Sustainable Food Technology found that grapevine cane films could be a great alternative to petrochemical plastics. They’re transparent, leave behind no harmful residues, and biodegrade into soil within 17 days. “These films demonstrate outstanding potential for food packaging applications,” Srinivas Janaswamy, an associate professor in South Dakota State University's Department of Dairy and Food Science, said in a press release. “That is my dream.”
Jesse gives Rob a lesson in marginal generation, inframarginal rent, and electricity supply curves.
Most electricity used in America today is sold on a wholesale power market. These markets are one of the most important institutions structuring the modern U.S. energy economy, but they’re also not very well understood, even in climate nerd circles. And after all: How would you even run a market for something that’s used at the second it’s created — and moves at the speed of light?
On this week’s episode of Shift Key Summer School, Rob and Jesse talk about how electricity finds a price and how modern power markets work. Why run a power market in the first place? Who makes the most money in power markets? How do you encourage new power plants to get built? And what do power markets mean for renewables?
Shift Key is hosted by Jesse Jenkins, a professor of energy systems engineering at Princeton University, and Robinson Meyer, Heatmap’s executive editor.
Subscribe to “Shift Key” and find this episode on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Amazon, YouTube, or wherever you get your podcasts.
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Here is an excerpt from our conversation:
Jesse Jenkins: If I’m just a utility operating on my own, I want to basically run my fleet on what we call economic dispatch, which is rank ordering them from cheapest to most expensive on a fuel or variable cost basis, and trying to maximize my use of the less expensive generators and only turn on the more expensive generators when I need them.
That introduces this idea of a marginal generator, where the marginal generator is the last one I turned on that has some slack to move up or down as demand changes. And what that means is that if I have one more megawatt-hour of demand in that hour — or over a five-minute period, or whatever — or 1 megawatt-hour less, then I’m going to crank that one generator up or down. And so the marginal cost of that megawatt-hour of demand is the variable cost of that marginal generator. So if it’s a gas plant that can turn up or down, say it’s $40 a megawatt-hour to pay for its fuel, the cost on the margin of me turning on my lights and consuming a little bit more is that that one power plant is going to ramp its power up a little bit, or down if I turn something off.
And so the way we identify what the marginal value of supplying a little bit more electricity or consuming a little bit more electricity is the variable cost of that last generator, not the average cost of all the generators that are operating, because that’s the one that would change if I were to increase or decrease my output.
Does that make any sense?
Robinson Meyer: It does. In other words, the marginal cost for the whole system is a property of the power plant on the margin, which I realize is tautological. But basically, the marginal cost for increasing output for the entire system by 1 megawatt-hour is actually a property of the one plant that you would turn on to produce that megawatt-hour.
Jesse Jenkins: That’s right, exactly. And that can change over the course of the day. So if demand’s really high, that might be my gas plant that’s on the margin. But if demand is low, or in the middle of the day, that gas plant might be off, and the marginal generator during those periods might be the coal plant or even the nuclear plant at the bottom of the supply curve.
Mentioned:
Jesse’s slides on electricity pricing in the short run
Jesse’s lecture slides on electricity pricing in the long run
Shift Key Summer School episodes 1, 2, and 3
This episode of Shift Key is sponsored by …
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Music for Shift Key is by Adam Kromelow.