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Making the switch as a renter proved a lot harder than I realized.
I have a confession: Electrifying my own home baffles me. Ride the bus more often? No problem. Eat more vegetables? A cinch. But limiting the emissions of my one-bedroom apartment is hard.
As a New York renter, I have no real choices. My heat comes from natural gas — via a radiator I have little control over — and so does the fuel for cooking. The (increasingly fervent) conversations about replacing gas appliances with electric were always of more theoretical than practical interest to me.
However, faced with replacing my own range, I got a front row seat to how complicated the process can be for renters. Not only did I come up against practical realities that made an induction stove a hard sell for my landlord, but I also realized how much we’ll resist decarbonizing our homes simply because it’s a huge hassle. It’s just easier to use the infrastructure we are accustomed to, even for those of us who know better. Fighting that inertia, then, is our challenge.
My first thought that Sunday was “gas!”
A faint but distinct rotten egg odor had snuck under my bedroom door. I dashed to the kitchen, checked that the burners were turned off. But all seemed well. In fact, the odor seemed to have dissipated and was probably just the remnants of a neighbor’s burned-something anyway. False alarm. I returned to my regularly scheduled Sunday morning programming of coffee and my book until an afternoon potluck across Brooklyn.
(I did open the windows, just in case. But I also used the range as usual, making croutons from stale bread. Hubristic, I know.)
When I returned post-potluck, though, the sulfuric smell had returned, concentrated and unmistakable. Google told me to call my utility or even 911 and not to touch any of my appliances. As I waited in the lobby for National Grid, I thought guiltily of the croutons.
An officious duo confirmed my fears: I had a gas leak. Two, actually, both from the stove itself and from the nozzle where it connects to the wall. Once they disconnected it, tagged it, and bustled out of the apartment, I felt momentarily grateful that I had already planned to eat salad for dinner, stranded as I now was without the means to cook.
And then I opened my laptop to begin Mission Induction Stove.
Before the leak, I thought of gas as a nonnegotiable reality of renting in New York City. Aside from one friend who abhorred her unreliable electric stove, everyone I know used the gas range that came with their apartments, many without even an exhaust fan or vent hood.
I was astonished to learn that most people in the U.S. do not rely on natural gas for cooking, because I have lived solely in places that do: first in California, which at 70% has the country’s highest rate of natural gas use for cooking, and now in New York. Otherwise, though, I was well-versed in the facts: that gas-burning stoves are a major source of methane and nitrogen dioxide, which can prompt asthma and other health problems, and that they can also emit the carcinogen benzene and other chemicals.
But I spent most of my career compartmentalizing these facts when it came time to cook. In a bid to protect my lungs, I used the exhaust fan and left the windows open. While I considered buying a plug-in induction burner — as Sam Calisch, head of special projects for Rewiring America, recommended when I consulted him for this story — my lack of spare counter space and tendency to cook on multiple burners at once caused me to kick that can down the road.
Presented with the leak, though, I decided to lobby for a better replacement. Electric-powered induction ranges are precise and powerful, using an electromagnetic field to heat cookware directly. While they once were a niche and expensive offering, they have begun to catch on. New York State’s own energy research office recommends induction as “the better way to upgrade your kitchen.”
My goal was to convince my generally quite reasonable landlord that an induction stove would cost the same as a gas replacement, if not less.
Via email, I channeled Consumer Reports: “I found several well-reviewed induction options,” I wrote, including one from Samsung and one from Frigidaire that I described as “particularly promising” and likely to “work for far longer than the two years that the Summit one did.”
I am thrilled to report that this tack seemed initially to work. “I will look into it,” my landlord said on the phone. “We certainly don’t want more gas leaks.” I soared, imagining boiling water for pasta in half the time.
This optimism was premature.
There were two crucial details that I failed to consider as I made my plea.
The first is that New York apartments are not large, and neither are their appliances. My stove is 24 inches, smaller than the standard 30. But, accustomed to zero elbow room, I forgot this and sent my landlord only 30-inch options. When I realized my error, I was dismayed to find only one induction option that would fit: a ZLINE range that cost more than twice as much as my old stove.
While the induction chorus is swiftly growing (especially in light of the news that the Consumer Product Safety Commission is weighing how best to regulate gas stoves) the market remains small. Only about 4 million U.S. households used induction as of 2020. Accordingly, there are just a few options on offer, and as a renter with a small kitchen I fell into a hole in the market.
However, the market is projected to grow considerably in the coming years, and Rewiring America’s Calisch told me that “as more households adopt this technology, product selection will continue to grow.” Banning gas stoves in new buildings, as New York City did starting in 2025 for smaller buildings and 2027 for larger, might also bring more options to market.
Despite its high price-tag, I sent my landlord the ZLINE option as a Hail Mary. This is when I came up against crucial detail number two.
I mentioned to an electrician I was trying to replace my gas stove with induction, and he was incredulous: “Management green-lit those electrical upgrades?”
As I should have realized, switching to induction can mean upgrading the wiring to a 220-volt outlet protected by 40-50 amp breakers. In an old building like mine, that can be complicated. A Carbon Switch survey of 90 induction purchasers found that 59 of them had to pay for some sort of electrical work, with an average price tag of $987.
While these upgrades are worthwhile to homeowners looking for the climate and health benefits of an induction stove, I imagine that the landlord/renter divide makes them less likely in homes like mine. Installing a new outlet or upgrading an electrical panel involves far more moving parts than simply ordering a new stove would. And the hassle and expense would be borne by my building’s management, while the benefits would be enjoyed by me.
But there are policies that could help renters make the case to their landlords, such as energy use benchmarking. Benchmarking requires buildings to disclose their energy intensity, which “can be a proxy for how expensive the utilities in a building are,” Calisch said. This can incentivize property owners to invest in efficient appliances because renters, who foot their own electricity and gas bills, will appreciate apartments with low projected energy costs. New York City already applies benchmarking requirements for buildings of more than 25,000 square feet (though not mine, sadly).
Performance standards can be used as a complement for benchmarking, Calisch said, which represent efficiency goals that property owners must meet through building or appliance improvements.
“The key part of this policy is setting the standard such that electric appliances are the only path to meeting them,” he added.
Ultimately, the pricey ZLINE model was rejected. I ended up instead with a new gas stove, which was installed last week.
It is fine: a stainless steel model by GE that is a perfectly serviceable version of the gas stoves I have been using all my life. The warming drawer is even big enough to fit my cookie sheets, which is the kind of small win for my kitchen I would have cheered in any other context.
But after picturing a sleek and emissions-free induction alternative, the new stove felt banal. I was relieved, thrilled even, to finally cook hot food in my own apartment after weeks of salads and sandwiches, but I found myself waiting for water to boil with a twinge of impatience. And my least favorite kitchen chore — wiping down the stove — was even more annoying after I got my hopes up about the glass-topped, easily-cleaned ZLINE. My nose also twitches more than usual at the smell of gas, and I’m more likely to remember to open the windows while I cook.
So perhaps it will come as no surprise that while writing this article, I took a quick break to buy a portable induction burner: my kitchen’s tiny victory in the face of inertia.
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Geothermal is getting closer to the big time. Last week, Fervo Energy — arguably the country’s leading enhanced geothermal company — announced that its Utah demonstration project had achieved record production capacity. The new approach termed “enhanced geothermal,” which borrows drilling techniques and expertise from the oil and gas industry, seems poised to become a big player on America’s clean, 24/7 power grid of the future.
Why is geothermal so hot? How soon could it appear on the grid — and why does it have advantages that other zero-carbon technologies don’t? On this week’s episode of Shift Key, Rob and Jesse speak with a practitioner and an expert in the world of enhanced geothermal. Sarah Jewett is the vice president of strategy at Fervo Energy, which she joined after several years in the oil and gas industry. Wilson Ricks is a doctoral student of mechanical and aerospace engineering at Princeton University, where he studies macro-energy systems modeling. Shift Key is hosted by Robinson Meyer, the founding executive editor of Heatmap, and Jesse Jenkins, a professor of energy systems engineering at Princeton University.
Subscribe to “Shift Key” and find this episode on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Amazon, or wherever you get your podcasts.
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Here is an excerpt from our conversation:
Robinson Meyer: I just wanted to hit a different note here, which is, Sarah, you’ve alluded a few times to your past in the oil and gas industry. I think this is true across Fervo, is that of course, the technologies we’re discussing here are fracking derived. What has your background in the oil and gas industry and hydrocarbons taught you that you think about at Fervo now, and developing geothermal as a resource?
Sarah Jewett: There are so many things. I mean, I’m thinking about my time in the oil and gas industry daily. And you’re exactly right, I think today about 60% of Fervo’s employees come from the oil and gas industry. And because we are only just about to start construction on our first power facility, the percentage of contractors and field workers from the oil and gas industry is much higher than 60%.
Jesse Jenkins: Right, you can’t go and hire a bunch of people with geothermal experience when there is no large-scale geothermal industry to pull from.
Jewett: That’s right. That’s right. And so the oil and gas industry, I think, has taught us, so many different types of things. I mean, we can’t really exist without thinking about the history of the oil and gas industry — even, you know, Wilson and I are sort of comparing our learning rates to learning rates observed in various different oil and gas basins by different operators, so you can see a lot of prior technological pathways.
I mean, first off, we’re just using off the shelf technology that has been proven and tested in the oil and gas industry over the last 25 years, which has been, really, the reason why geothermal is able to have this big new unlock, because we’re using all of this off the shelf technology that now exists. It’s not like the early 2000s, where there was a single bit we could have tried. Now there are a ton of different bits that are available to us that we can try and say, how is this working? How is this working? How’s this working?
So I think, from a technological perspective, it’s helpful. And then from just an industry that has set a solid example it’s been really helpful, and that can be leveraged in a number of different ways. Learning rates, for example; how to set up supply chains in remote areas, for example; how to engage with and interact with communities. I think we’ve seen examples of oil and gas doing that well and doing it poorly. And I’ve gotten to observe firsthand the oil and gas industry doing it well and doing it poorly.
And so I’ve gotten to learn a lot about how we need to treat those around us, explain to them what it is that we’re doing, how open we need to be. And I think that has been immensely helpful as we’ve crafted the role that we’re going to play in these communities at large.
Wilson Ricks: I think it’s also interesting to talk about the connection to the oil and gas industry from the perspective of the political economy of the energy transition, specifically because you hear policymakers talk all the time about retraining workers from these legacy industries that, if we’re serious about decarbonizing, will unavoidably have to contract — and, you know, getting those people involved in clean energy, in these new industries.
And often that’s taking drillers and retraining some kind of very different job — or coal miners — into battery manufacturers. This is almost exactly one to one. Like Sarah said, there’s additional expertise and experience that you need to get really good at doing this in the geothermal context. But for the most part, you are taking the exact same skills and just reapplying them, and so it allows for both a potentially very smooth transition of workforces, and also it allows for scale-up of enhanced geothermal to proceed much more smoothly than it potentially would if you had to kind of train an entire workforce from scratch to just do this.
This episode of Shift Key is sponsored by …
Watershed’s climate data engine helps companies measure and reduce their emissions, turning the data they already have into an audit-ready carbon footprint backed by the latest climate science. Get the sustainability data you need in weeks, not months. Learn more at watershed.com.
As a global leader in PV and ESS solutions, Sungrow invests heavily in research and development, constantly pushing the boundaries of solar and battery inverter technology. Discover why Sungrow is the essential component of the clean energy transition by visiting sungrowpower.com.
Antenna Group helps you connect with customers, policymakers, investors, and strategic partners to influence markets and accelerate adoption. Visit antennagroup.com to learn more.
Music for Shift Key is by Adam Kromelow.
Why the new “reasoning” models might gobble up more electricity — at least in the short term
What happens when artificial intelligence takes some time to think?
The newest set of models from OpenAI, o1-mini and o1-preview, exhibit more “reasoning” than existing large language models and associated interfaces, which spit out answers to prompts almost instantaneously.
Instead, the new model will sometimes “think” for as long as a minute or two. “Through training, they learn to refine their thinking process, try different strategies, and recognize their mistakes,” OpenAI announced in a blog post last week. The company said these models perform better than their existing ones on some tasks, especially related to math and science. “This is a significant advancement and represents a new level of AI capability,” the company said.
But is it also a significant advancement in energy usage?
In the short run at least, almost certainly, as spending more time “thinking” and generating more text will require more computing power. As Erik Johannes Husom, a researcher at SINTEF Digital, a Norwegian research organization, told me, “It looks like we’re going to get another acceleration of generative AI’s carbon footprint.”
Discussion of energy use and large language models has been dominated by the gargantuan requirements for “training,” essentially running a massive set of equations through a corpus of text from the internet. This requires hardware on the scale of tens of thousands of graphical processing units and an estimated 50 gigawatt-hours of electricity to run.
Training GPT-4 cost “more than” $100 million OpenAI chief executive Sam Altman has said; the next generation models will likely cost around $1 billion, according to Anthropic chief executive Dario Amodei, a figure that might balloon to $100 billion for further generation models, according to Oracle founder Larry Ellison.
While a huge portion of these costs are hardware, the energy consumption is considerable as well. (Meta reported that when training its Llama 3 models, power would sometimes fluctuate by “tens of megawatts,” enough to power thousands of homes). It’s no wonder that OpenAI’s chief executive Sam Altman has put hundreds of millions of dollars into a fusion company.
But the models are not simply trained, they're used out in the world, generating outputs (think of what ChatGPT spits back at you). This process tends to be comparable to other common activities like streaming Netflix or using a lightbulb. This can be done with different hardware and the process is more distributed and less energy intensive.
As large language models are being developed, most computational power — and therefore most electricity — is used on training, Charlie Snell, a PhD student at University of California at Berkeley who studies artificial intelligence, told me. “For a long time training was the dominant term in computing because people weren’t using models much.” But as these models become more popular, that balance could shift.
“There will be a tipping point depending on the user load, when the total energy consumed by the inference requests is larger than the training,” said Jovan Stojkovic, a graduate student at the University of Illinois who has written about optimizing inference in large language models.
And these new reasoning models could bring that tipping point forward because of how computationally intensive they are.
“The more output a model produces, the more computations it has performed. So, long chain-of-thoughts leads to more energy consumption,” Husom of SINTEF Digital told me.
OpenAI staffers have been downright enthusiastic about the possibilities of having more time to think, seeing it as another breakthrough in artificial intelligence that could lead to subsequent breakthroughs on a range of scientific and mathematical problems. “o1 thinks for seconds, but we aim for future versions to think for hours, days, even weeks. Inference costs will be higher, but what cost would you pay for a new cancer drug? For breakthrough batteries? For a proof of the Riemann Hypothesis? AI can be more than chatbots,” OpenAI researcher Noam Brown tweeted.
But those “hours, days, even weeks” will mean more computation and “there is no doubt that the increased performance requires a lot of computation,” Husom said, along with more carbon emissions.
But Snell told me that might not be the end of the story. It’s possible that over the long term, the overall computing demands for constructing and operating large language models will remain fixed or possibly even decline.
While “the default is that as capabilities increase, demand will increase and there will be more inference,” Snell told me, “maybe we can squeeze reasoning capability into a small model ... Maybe we spend more on inference but it’s a much smaller model.”
OpenAI hints at this possibility, describing their o1-mini as “a smaller model optimized for STEM reasoning,” in contrast to other, larger models that “are pre-trained on vast datasets” and “have broad world knowledge,” which can make them “expensive and slow for real-world applications.” OpenAI is suggesting that a model can know less but think more and deliver comparable or better results to larger models — which might mean more efficient and less energy hungry large language models.
In short, thinking might use less brain power than remembering, even if you think for a very long time.
On Azerbaijan’s plans, offshore wind auctions, and solar jobs
Current conditions: Thousands of firefighters are battling raging blazes in Portugal • Shanghai could be hit by another typhoon this week • More than 18 inches of rain fell in less than 24 hours in Carolina Beach, which forecasters say is a one-in-a-thousand-year event.
Azerbaijan, the host of this year’s COP29, today put forward a list of “non-negotiated” initiatives for the November climate summit that will “supplement” the official mandated program. The action plan includes the creation of a new “Climate Finance Action Fun” that will take (voluntary) contributions from fossil fuel producing countries, a call for increasing battery storage capacity, an appeal for a global “truce” during the event, and a declaration aimed at curbing methane emissions from waste (which the Financial Times noted is “only the third most common man-made source of methane, after the energy and agricultural sectors”). The plan makes no mention of furthering efforts to phase out fossil fuels in the energy system.
The Interior Department set a date for an offshore wind energy lease sale in the Gulf of Maine, an area which the government sees as suitable for developing floating offshore wind technology. The auction will take place on October 29 and cover eight areas on the Outer Continental Shelf off Massachusetts, New Hampshire, and Maine. The area could provide 13 gigawatts of offshore wind energy, if fully developed. The Biden administration has a goal of installing 30 GW of offshore wind by 2030, and has approved about half that amount so far. The DOI’s terms and conditions for the October lease sale include “stipulations designed to promote the development of a robust domestic U.S. supply chain for floating wind.” Floating offshore wind turbines can be deployed in much deeper waters than traditional offshore projects, and could therefore unlock large areas for clean power generation. Last month the government gave the green light for researchers to study floating turbines in the Gulf of Maine.
In other wind news, BP is selling its U.S. onshore wind business, bp Wind Energy. The firm’s 10 wind farm projects have a total generating capacity of 1.3 gigawatts and analysts think they could be worth $2 billion. When it comes to renewables, the fossil fuel giant said it is focusing on investing in solar growth, and onshore wind is “not aligned” with those plans.
The number of jobs in the U.S. solar industry last year grew to 279,447, up 6% from 2022, according to a new report from the nonprofit Interstate Renewable Energy Council. Utility-scale solar added 1,888 jobs in 2023, a 6.8% increase and a nice rebound from 2022, when the utility-scale solar market recorded a loss in jobs. The report warns that we might not see the same kind of growth for solar jobs in 2024, though. Residential installations have dropped, and large utility-scale projects are struggling with grid connection. The report’s authors also note that as the industry grows, it faces a shortage of skilled workers.
Interstate Renewable Energy Council
Most employers reported that hiring qualified solar workers was difficult, especially in installation and project development. “It’s difficult because our projects are built in very rural areas where there just aren't a lot of people,” one interviewee who works at a utility-scale solar firm said. “We strive to hire as many local people as possible because we want local communities to feel the economic impact or benefit from our projects. So in some communities where we go, it is difficult to find local people that are skilled and can perform the work.”
The torrential rain that has battered central Europe is tapering off a bit, but the danger of rising water remains. “The massive amounts of rain that fell is now working its way through the river systems and we are starting to see flooding in areas that avoided the worst of the rain,” BBC meteorologist Matt Taylor explained. The Polish city of Nysa told its 44,000 residents to leave yesterday as water rose. In the Czech Republic, 70% of the town of Litovel was submerged in 3 feet of flooding. The death toll from the disaster has risen to 18. Now the forecast is calling for heavy rain in Italy. “The catastrophic rainfall hitting central Europe is exactly what scientists expect with climate change,” Joyce Kimutai, a climate scientist with Imperial College London’s Grantham Institute, toldThe Guardian.
A recent study examining the effects of London’s ultra-low emissions zone on how students get to school found that a year after the rules came into effect, many students had switched to walking, biking, or taking public transport instead of being driven in private vehicles.