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AM Briefing

Europe Braces for Energy Cuts as Rivers Heat and Dry Up

On Trump’s inverter ban, American antimony, and thermal batteries

Dry riverbed.
Heatmap Illustration | Unsplash

Current conditions: The unusual humidity thickening the Los Angeles air this week is the result of a warmer Pacific Ocean, a sign of climate change • Temperatures are topping triple digits Fahrenheit in the Spanish capital of Madrid • Severe storms are pummeling the central United States from the Plains to Appalachia.

THE TOP FIVE

1. Europe braces for energy cuts as rivers heat and dry up

The latest heat wave roasting Europe is warming up rivers and drying the watercourses on which the continent’s energy systems rely. In Eastern Europe, the mighty Danube has hit record lows, beaching boats in Croatia, squeezing out a quarter of Serbia’s fuel shipments, and forcing Hungary’s only nuclear power station to shut down as cooling water disappeared. The cost of navigating the barges that ship petroleum products, chemicals, coal, and steel down the Rhine river skyrocketed 400% in the last two months as water levels plummeted, as Bloomberg columnist Javier Blas pointed out. Economists warned the German broadcaster DW this week that the Rhine’s low levels could slash as much as 0.2% off Germany’s entire economic output in the third quarter of this year. It’s a stark reminder of what Heatmap contributor Hazel Southwell wrote back in 2023: Economies aren’t ready for rivers to dry up.

The wildfires blazing across the continent aren’t isolated to the mainland. A fire raging in eastern England forced dozens of evacuations and put the Sizewell B nuclear plant, which just won approval to extend its license this month, on emergency alert.

2. More than 530 local laws now seek to ban or restrict data centers

As quickly as public opinion over data centers is plummeting, local ordinances barring or limiting construction of new facilities are proliferating. More than 530 such statutes are now in place all over the country, and the vast majority were enacted this year, according to an extensive review of public records conducted by Heatmap Pro that my colleague Robinson Meyer wrote up. These restrictions are driving a wave of project cancellations.

Meanwhile, Anthropic is in what The Wall Street Journal described as “advanced talks” with banks to borrow $15 billion to build a sweeping new data center and power-generating complex. The deal would be backed by a consortium of banks led by Morgan Stanley and would back the project in Hubbard, Texas, which would include a 1.6-gigawatt natural gas power plant. To raise the debt, Google has provided guarantees for billions of dollars of the Claude maker’s lease and obligations to pay for electricity.

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3. Trump’s ban on new imported inverters won’t hurt solar, analysts say

The Federal Communications Commission’s ban on imported inverters, the devices that help patch solar panels into data centers and onto the grid, will have little effect on the buildout of panels in the U.S., according to the latest assessment from the consultancy BloombergNEF. "We expect the ban to have limited impact on U.S. solar and energy storage project deployment, given that it allows current models to still be sold," the consultancy wrote in a memo. U.S. factories cannot meet demand on their own, matching only 18% of the American market in 2025.

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4. America is getting back into antimony

Workers at the Saritag antimony mine in western Tajikistan. STRINGER/AFP via Getty Images

The U.S. needs antimony to make ammunition, semiconductors, and batteries. But the country stopped mining the lustrous gray metalloid back in 1983. Since then, China has dominated the global market, with Russia trailing in second place and Tajikistan in a steady third, according to the latest U.S. Geological Survey data. Now America is getting back into the antimony game. On Thursday, the U.S. unveiled a new modular mineral processing plant designed to establish a new end-to-end domestic supply chain for antimony, Mining.com reported. The project is supported by the mining company Perpetua Resources, the U.S. Army, and the Idaho National Laboratory. Backed by billionaire hedge fund manager John Paulson, Perpetua was designated last year by the Trump administration for a fast-track permitting program. In May, the federal Export-Import Bank gave the project a $2.9 billion loan.

5. Thermal battery startup Antora Energy raises $550 million to ramp up production

It’s a good time for energy startups. Fresh off Commonwealth Fusion Systems’ $1 billion round yesterday, Antora Energy, the thermal battery startup that converts electricity into heat with large carbon blocks, just netted $550 million in a Series C. Meant to help the company ramp up production, the funding round comes after the company launched one of the largest battery storage projects in the world, a 5-gigawatt-hour system in South Dakota that was built in less than a year. “From factories to data centers, energy is the bottleneck to industrial growth,” Andrew Ponec, Antora’s co-founder and chief executive, said in a statement. “Antora has shown we can help break that bottleneck — delivering energy fast, at massive scale, with American innovation. With this funding round, we’re continuing to strengthen our investment in U.S. manufacturing, delivering affordable energy across the country and around the world.”

THE KICKER

Mexico is getting ready to do something about the algae. This week, Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum said her government will create a comprehensive plan to free the country from a vast bloom of sargassum. While not dangerous to humans, the seaweed can rot on shore and emit foul odors.

This story was updated with a quote directly from BloombergNEF's analyst memo.

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Energy

Canada Looks to the U.S. to Get Its Nuclear Mojo Back

Will America be the land of opportunity for AtkinsRéalis’ tried-and-true CANDU?

A Canadian flag and an atom.
Heatmap Illustration/Getty Images

Unruffled by President Trump’s taunts of turning Canada into the 51st state, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney has vowed to regain leverage over Washington by remaking his nation as an “energy superpower.” Instead of building pipelines from the oil fields of Alberta to American refineries, Ottawa will run them to its West Coast ports to sell crude directly to Asia. Rather than importing electricity from offshore wind farms in the American Northeast, Nova Scotia will build its own turbines and sell the power back to energy-starved New England as the Trump administration thwarts the region’s own buildout.

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AM Briefing

Lula!

On Serbia’s election, helium, and tidal power

Luiz Inacio Lula Da Silva.
Heatmap Illustration/Getty Images

Current conditions: Typhoon Champi swept past Taiwan, leaving one dead and 500 injured as the weakened storm slams into South Korea and Japan • Hurricane Vance is churning off Mexico, bombarding the coast with waves up to 13 feet tall • Tropical Storm In-Fa could strengthen into a powerful storm as it heads toward the Northern Mariana Islands, a U.S. territory.


THE TOP FIVE

1. Lula wins an unprecedented fourth term as Brazil’s president

Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has secured an unprecedented fourth term, winning 51% of votes in Sunday’s run-off election with far-right challenger Flávio Bolsonaro. The photogenic son of the imprisoned former president Lula defeated in 2022, Bolsonaro, 45, had promised to cut taxes, slash government spending on things like environmental enforcement, and bring South America’s largest economy in closer alignment with President Donald Trump. His message, which resonated in the Amazon’s frontier boomtowns, secured Bolsonaro more votes in the first round of the election on October 4. Lula’s win makes history twice over. He’s the first since democracy returned to Brazil in 1988 to pull ahead and defeat the first-round winner in the runoff. He’s also the first president elected to four terms, with his first two served between 2003 and 2011. On energy, the differences between the candidates are primarily over the role of government in the market, with the conservative Bolsonaro advocating more privatization and Lula seeking to strengthen the role of state-backed enterprises in generating income for the government and carrying out industrial policy.

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