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On Trump’s renewables embargo, Project Vault, and perovskite solar

Current conditions: Illinois far outpaces every other state for tornadoes so far this year, clocking 80, with Mississippi in a distant second with 43 • Western North Carolina’s Blue Ridge Mountains face high wildfire risk during the day and frost at night • A magnitude 7.4 earthquake off the coast of Honshu, Japan, has raised the risk of a tsunami.
The nonprofit that sets the standards against which tens of thousands of companies worldwide measure their greenhouse gas emissions is secretive and ideologically tilted toward industry. That’s the conclusion of a new whistleblower report on which Heatmap’s Emily Pontecorvo got her hands yesterday. The problems at the Greenhouse Gas Protocol “are systemic,” and the nonprofit “seems to be moving further away from its commitment to accountability,” the report said. Danny Cullenward, the economist and lawyer focused on scientific integrity in climate science at the University of Pennsylvania’s Kleinman Center for Energy Policy who authored the report, sits on the Protocol’s Independent Standards Board. Due to a restrictive non-disclosure agreement preventing him from talking about what he has witnessed, he instead relied on publicly available information to illustrate the report. “Not only does the nonprofit community not have a voice on the board,” Cullenward wrote, but the absence of those voices “risks politicizing the work of scientist Board members.” Emily added: “While the Protocol’s official decision-making hierarchy deems scientific integrity as its top priority, in practice, scientists are left to defend the science to the business community.” The report follows a years-long process meant to bolster the group’s scientific credibility. “Critics have long faulted the Protocol for allowing companies to look far better on paper than they do to the atmosphere,” Emily explains. But creating standards that are both scientifically robust and feasible to implement is no easy feat.
The Trump administration’s efforts to paralyze wind and solar permits are once again withering in the cold light of the court room. On Tuesday, U.S. District Judge Denise Casper ordered the end to a series of delays on renewable energy permits, delivering a victory to regional trade groups that had argued the administration was violating the Administrative Procedures Act by holding up approvals. Per Heatmap’s Jael Holzman, the ruling “is a potentially fatal blow” to “key methods the Trump administration has used to stymie federal renewable energy permitting.”
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In the race to build North America’s first small modular reactor, GE Vernova Hitachi Nuclear Energy is in the lead. Work is already underway on the world’s first deployment of the American-Japanese joint venture’s 300-megawatt boiling water reactor, the BWRX-300. The project at Ontario Power Generation’s Darlington plant is 38% done, and it’s on track to produce electricity by 2030, said Roger Martella, GE Vernova’s head of government affairs and policy. The remark, which Heatmap’s Matthew Zeitlin highlighted on X, came one day before the energy giant reports its latest earnings.
Meanwhile, one of Barack Obama’s early moves as president was to halt construction of the Yucca Mountain nuclear waste repository, effectively blocking any plan by the federal government to deal with radioactive spent fuel. Since then, no state has stepped up as an alternative; either way, federal law stipulates that the site in Nevada must be the United States’ first permanent tomb for nuclear waste. But what if nuclear waste wasn’t treated as waste at all? That was the Trump administration’s new pitch earlier this year when it invited states to submit applications to host so-called nuclear innovation campuses, sites where reactors, fuel enrichers, and waste recyclers can all set up shop. It’s a good sell. At least 28 states have so submitted applications, according to Exchange Monitor.
Project Vault, the effort the Trump administration set up to create a critical minerals reserve for U.S. manufacturers to weather Chinese trade restrictions on key metals, will soon close its first funding tranche. The program, announced in February, will combine $2 billion in private funding with a $10 billion loan from the Export-Import Bank of the U.S. The project “was not designed to be a stockpile alone,” John Jovanovic, the head of the Ex-Im Bank, told Reuters. “What it was designed to do was actually solve problems that the market faces … What we want to do is let it be dynamic and let it help try to solve a bunch of these problems.”

“Perovskites hold a place of honor in the pantheon of much-heralded clean energy breakthroughs that have yet to actually arrive, alongside small modular nuclear reactors and solid-state batteries,” Canary Media reporter Julian Spector wrote yesterday. “In theory, these crystal structures could radically improve solar panels’ capabilities by absorbing wavelengths of light that conventional silicon cells can’t catch. But the stunning advances in R&D specimens have yet to infiltrate the cold, hard world of commercial solar manufacturing.” Until now, at least. On Tuesday, the startup Tandem PV officially opened its new factory in Fremont, California. The company aims to produce large panels of glass treated with a photovoltaic perovskite crystal coating that can increase how efficiently panels convert the sun’s rays into electricity by nearly 40%.
“We’re going to emphasize quality and speed over cost,” Tandem PV CEO Scott Wharton told Matthew last year. “If we do this right, then the theory is, we’ve become the next First Solar — that’s our intention. We want to take back solar leadership from China, which is a bold statement, but I think we’re on the journey.”
Over the next three nights, an eye-popping 723 million birds are expected to be migrating across the U.S. In Michigan alone, at least 5.3 million birds are likely to fly overhead. “Most of these birds will be in flight while we sleep. They are guided by stars, the magnetic field, and sounds,” a meteorology account called Michigan Storm Chasers wrote on X. “You can help these birds migrate by turning off any unnecessary outdoor lighting, especially between the hours of 11 p.m. and 6 a.m.!”
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On an NRC acceptance, Deb Haaland’s rejection, and Texas’ win over Chinese solar
Current conditions: Temperatures at the supposedly cursed Bhangarh Fort in Rajasthan, India — considered one of the most “haunted” places in Asia — are projected to climb north of 80 degrees Fahrenheit on Halloween • The sun is shining all weekend in Oaxaca, Mexico, known for its vibrant Día de los Muertos celebrations, set to start on Sunday • As the New York City marathon kicks off Sunday morning, temperatures could top 63 degrees Fahrenheit, five degrees above the historical average.
Fossil-fueled power plants to run artificial intelligence data centers are set to emit 460 million metric tons of carbon dioxide by the end of this decade — roughly equal to the climate-changing pollution from the entire economy of Mexico (which, by the way, is lagging behind the rest of Latin America on clean energy). That’s according to a new Sierra Club analysis published Thursday on Bloomberg. The emissions are set to “undo 15 years’ worth of greenhouse gas reductions from U.S. electricity generation.” The U.S. power sector is on track to emit 2.1 billion metric tons of carbon by 2030, a 618 million-ton increase from 2025 levels. “The numbers continue to sort of boggle our minds,” Jeremy Fisher, the Sierra Club’s principal advisor for climate and energy, told the newswire.
The latest polling from Heatmap Pro shows that public opposition to data centers has plateaued. But signs of the backlash were clear from Louisiana Governor Jeff Landry’s latest effort to condition lucrative tax breaks for data centers and start referring to the facilities as “digital factories,” according to The New Orleans Times-Picayune.
New Jersey Governor Mikie Sherrill has threatened to block tankers carrying Russian diesel from offloading the fuel at her state’s ports, the largest petroleum import hub on the U.S. East Coast. In an interview with the Financial Times, the Democrat said President Donald Trump’s deal with Russian strongman Vladimir Putin would boost the Kremlin’s war coffers at “the expense of American consumers and our democratic ally Ukraine.” She continued: “Donald Trump isn’t doing anything to bring down prices, diesel prices or costs. Trump’s diesel deal with Putin is corrupt and illegal, and I am evaluating options to stop it from arriving at a port in New Jersey.” Russia, meanwhile, is poised to extend its own ban on diesel exports until the end of the year even as the Kremlin makes exceptions for shipments to the U.S., Reuters reported.
Speaking of Russian energy imports: I had an exclusive from yesterday afternoon you may have missed. General Matter, the nuclear enrichment startup founded by one of SpaceX’s first employees, took a big step toward starting construction on its facility at a Department of Energy-owned Superfund site in Kentucky. The Nuclear Regulatory Commission accepted the first major application from the startup in half the time the agency usually takes. The company, backed by both billionaire Peter Thiel and former White House climate czar John Kerry, told me it expects to have its license by next year, allowing construction to begin before 2028. If all goes according to plan, the Los Angeles-headquartered firm could start selling reactor fuel by 2029, a year after federal law bans all imports of Russian uranium.
A month ago, the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission told PJM Interconnection to go back and do more work on its proposed special procurement of electricity generation designed to fill the 6,800-megawatt shortfall from its latest capacity auction. That procurement was originally scheduled for September 30. Now the country’s second-largest electricity market proposes that the special procurement happen on March 1 as a result of the delay.
As requested by FERC, PJM revamped plans to allocate costs from the auction, saying that costs will be assigned based on growth between this summer’s peak and its forecast for 2028-29, meaning that the areas that expect the most load growth will bear the brunt of the costs from procuring the power. What remains to be seen is how FERC responds. The Commission has had choice words for PJM recently, with its chair calling the first proposal a “mess.” – Matthew Zeitlin
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Former Secretary of the Interior Deb Haaland announced her opposition Thursday to the bipartisan permitting reform deal. In an interview with Politico reporter Nico Portuondo, the first Native American to serve as a U.S. Cabinet secretary and an enrolled member of the Pueblo of Laguna said she sided with the mounting number of tribal groups urging Congress to change or abandon the Bipartisan American Affordability and Jobs Act. Among the top concerns raised by several such groups: the fate of Section 106 of the National Historic Preservation Act. Long considered a tool for tribes to have a say over federal projects affecting land near reservations or at cultural sites, the changes proposed in BAAJA would come at “the expense of Tribal sovereignty, consultation, sacred places, or cultural heritage that Section 106 was enacted to protect,” according to the National Association of Tribal Historic Preservation Officers.
Supporters of the bill, meanwhile, had fresh evidence to point to on Thursday of its benefits. A new analysis by Resources for the Future, the 74-year-old nonprofit think tank focused on research into energy and natural resources, found that passing BAAJA would increase long-distance transmission infrastructure 30% by 2041. Interregional transmission capacity “more than doubles.” Electricity costs overall would drop by between 3.5% and 7% over the same period. One complicating factor is the report’s outlook emissions. While RFF projected a near-term drop in emissions of roughly 200 million metric tons, it sees emissions from the power sector growing over the next 15 years. If the bill becomes law, RFF found, the sector’s emissions would still end up 1.8 billion metric tons lower than the baseline scenario.
In 2024, GH America Energy, a Texas LLC and subsidiary of a Chinese company, sued the Electric Reliability Council of Texas after the state’s grid operator canceled the pending interconnection application for a project in Val Verde County near the Mexican border. The developer had been eyeing a number of renewable energy projects in the state when lawmakers passed the Texas Lone Star Infrastructure Act in 2021, banning foreign-owned companies from hooking up to critical infrastructure networks. Three years later, ERCOT cited the law to toss GH America’s application. The company, in turn, argued that federal law preempted the Texas restrictions. On Thursday, Utility Dive reported that the U.S. Court of Appeals for the 5th Circuit had ruled this month that Texas has a “free lane” to restrict foreign-owned companies within its borders, in much the same way states impose environmental or health standards without running afoul of federal law.
In Houston, meanwhile, the fully U.S.-owned SEG Solar told Reuters it had secured land for a $950 million solar cell facility. The plant would add 4 gigawatts of annual capacity to churn out heterojunction, or HJT, cells. The hybrid cells layer thin film cells on crystalline solar cells to maximize the benefits of both technologies.
The European Union plans to delay some of its controversial green hydrogen production rules in response to “slower-than-expected expansion of the hydrogen market,” Hydrogen Insight reported. The chastened outlook couldn’t be farther from what’s going on in China. As dedicated readers of this newsletter know, Chinese investments into green hydrogen have soared in recent years — and yielded breakthroughs. My colleague Katie Brigham has a story I had been wanting to read for months, describing how China’s grip over the electrolyzer industry was tightening, and what that means for green hydrogen going forward.
If everything goes smoothly, the first commercial output could begin as soon as 2029.
General Matter, the secretive nuclear enrichment startup led by one of the first employees at Elon Musk’s SpaceX, emerged last month by publicly unveiling its plans to convert a Superfund site in Paducah, Kentucky, into the nation’s newest plant transforming raw uranium into fuel for reactors. Backed by both tech billionaire Peter Thiel and former White House climate czar John Kerry, the Los Angeles-based company chose the location, which until 2013 served for over six decades as an enrichment facility for the United States government, as a symbol of American reindustrialization. The startup stuck to a straightforward pitch: honing the cheapest, fastest, and most efficient technology to enrich uranium, following the path SpaceX took to engineer its rockets.
Now General Matter is set to announce its most significant public regulatory progress to date. On Thursday, Heatmap can exclusively report that the Nuclear Regulatory Commission accepted the company’s application, clearing a path to begin construction at the Department of Energy-owned Paducah site by next year.
“The U.S. used to be more than 80% of global enrichment; now we’re less than 1%,” Scott Nolan, General Matter’s chief executive, told me by phone Thursday from Paducah. “As a company, we’re not only bringing enrichment back to the U.S. to meet our needs and our allies’ needs, but also dropping the cost so nuclear is not just the safest and cleanest but the cheapest baseload power.”
The NRC gave its approval for General Matter to begin the application process just one month after the company filed its paperwork. In its acceptance letter, the NRC said it had completed the initial review in half the normal time and will consider other ways to expedite the process, a benefit owed in no small part to General Matter’s pre-application engagement with the agency.
“We’ve been told it’s due to the completeness and quality of our application,” Nolan said. “That application really followed over 100 different interactions with the NRC to coordinate on what we were planning to submit. We believe that pre-work has helped us.”
The company expects to receive approval from the NRC on its initial application by next year, allowing for construction to begin beyond the early work of clearing space and grading soil. If that goes according to schedule, Nolan said equipment installation can begin in 2028, with the first commercial output the following year.
The dominant technology for uranium enrichment is a gas centrifuge — giant vertical cylinders that spin tens of thousands of times per minute and push heavier Uranium-238 molecules toward the outer wall of the machine, leaving behind the Uranium-235 needed to sustain a chain reaction of atom splitting. Newer technologies involve using lasers to separate U-235 through electromagnetic properties. General Matter has not yet said what kind of technology it’s pursuing.
“We are developing novel technology but not novel physics or novel engineering,” Nolan said, adding that the company has “coordinated very closely” with the Energy Department as it demonstrates its hardware.
This first application would allow General Matter to produce the low-enriched uranium used in conventional nuclear reactors. Next year, the company plans to submit a second application that would allow it to churn out high-assay low-enrich uranium, a more potent fuel needed for next-generation reactors like the small modular reactors that startups Oklo, TerraPower, and X-energy are developing.
The milestone on General Matter’s inaugural application comes as the U.S. nuclear industry is anxiously seeking new sources of fuel. Russian nuclear fuel has dominated the American industry since the 1990s, when the Clinton-era “megatons to megawatts” program agreed to buy any reactor fuel made from materials extracted from dismantled atomic weapons. As a non-proliferation effort, it helped divert material that might have otherwise ended up in bombs or sitting around in the chaos of post-Soviet Russia. But the cheap imports all but put the domestic enrichment industry out of business.
That scarcely mattered in the decades when nuclear power was in decline. Now that the U.S. is forecast to build at least 10 gigawatts of new nuclear capacity over the next 14 years, companies are looking to shore up the supply of fuel. And that supply is shrinking. At the end of next year, federal law passed in the wake of the Kremlin’s invasion of Ukraine will ban any imports of Russian nuclear fuel. Industry sources familiar say following through would almost certainly mean the U.S. will run short on enriched uranium, suggesting Washington might seek to ease sanctions in much the same way the Trump administration just did for Russian diesel.
“The Russia ban is partly why we’re trying to move quickly to meet U.S. industry demand,” Nolan said.
The problem illustrates the market need General Matter aims to serve. It’s not alone: BWX Technologies, a chief supplier of nuclear fuel to the U.S. military, has ramped up production. Centrus Energy, another major enrichment company that spun out in the 1990s from federal ownership, has also begun a major expansion, shipping new centrifuges to its Ohio facility just this morning.
U.S. utilities have sufficient inventories of uranium to make it through the end of the decade, Nolan said. And even if Russian material is allowed in, the U.S. has historically capped Moscow’s share of the American market at 25%.
“Our mindset is not just to displace Russia from the U.S. market, but to restore U.S. self sufficiency on enrichment and help fuel allied countries with U.S. fuel instead of having them purchase from an adversary,” Nolan said.
He drew a parallel to SpaceX. Space launch, he said, “was an industry the U.S. once led in and had fallen behind on. We stopped launching the space shuttle and were unable to take astronauts and cargo to the International Space Station. One of SpaceX’s early missions was to take us back to the space station and end reliance on Russia.”
Current conditions: A Pineapple Express — the powerful atmospheric river that hits the West Coast, not the marijuana strain — could pummel the Southwest with heavy rain on Halloween • The remnants of Typhoon Champi are driving a severe storm in the Bering Sea, with four-foot waves lapping on Alaska’s shore • Despite India’s evacuation of nearly 200,000 people, Cyclone Arnab killed at least nine and destroyed tens of thousands of acres of crops in Andhra Pradesh.
The Federal Reserve voted Wednesday to keep benchmark interest rates steady despite last month’s spike in inflation statistics. In a post-meeting statement, the Federal Open Market Committee said it had decided to keep the federal funds target range between 3.75% and 4%, maintaining the central bank’s quarter percentage-point hike from last month. “Inflation remains elevated,” the statement cautioned. “The accumulation of more information will help the Committee determine the policy stance appropriate to ensure a timely return of inflation to the Committee’s 2% goal.”
For clean energy developers, whose projects’ upfront costs make them sensitive to the price of borrowing money, a hold is better than a hike. But a reduction is better than a hold.
GE Vernova’s gas turbine business is going gangbusters as data centers drive demand for new generators. Its nuclear-focused joint venture with the Japanese industrial giant Hitachi, meanwhile, is making real progress toward building out an order book for its 300-megawatt small modular reactor, the BWRX-300. Now the General Electric spinout is making a big bet on the future of the transmission buildout. On Wednesday, the company announced a deal to pay $9 billion for Trench Group, a global manufacturer of high-voltage transmission equipment and grid components. The deal is expected to close at the end of next year. “Trench’s differentiated high-voltage grid technology, strong execution, and deep customer relationships are key enablers of the modernized, resilient grid required to keep pace with the electricity supercycle,” GE Vernova CEO Scott Strazik said in a press release.
It’s far from the only company betting on future grid construction. Hitachi announced a $1 billion investment into a U.S. transformer factory last year. Meanwhile, a former Tesla executive just launched a startup called Heron Power aiming to make transformers specifically designed to patch more data centers and renewables onto the grid. There’s plenty of money to go around: As you may recall, the Department of Energy has in recent weeks pumped billions of dollars into upgrading the U.S. power grid.
More than 40 clean tech startups urged both parties in Congress to pass permitting reform legislation before the session ends. In a letter published Thursday morning and shared exclusively with me for this newsletter, the companies said the Bipartisan American Affordability and Jobs Act “helps innovators spend more time building and less time waiting.” Signatories included geothermal heavyweights Fervo Energy, Quaise, and Zanskar; carbon removal company Heirloom, and fusion giants Commonwealth Fusion Systems and Realta. The bill, they continued, “restores confidence that American projects can move from concept to construction on predictable timelines.”
The National Association for the Advancement of Colored People, on the other hand, came out with its own statement warning lawmakers against the bill. In its view, BAAJA would “lock in dirty energy for decades” and make it “harder for people to show they are harmed by pollution.” The group will undoubtedly find sympathetic audiences at the upper rungs of the Democratic Party. In remarks my colleague Jael Holzman obtained, John Podesta, the Biden White House’s senior climate policy advisor, said at a conference last week that he worried the bill could hand Trump “a loaded Howitzer.”
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Man bites dog: New York City might just have something to learn from Connecticut. In 2011, New York’s neighbor established the nation’s first green bank. As of this year, the agency has directed more than $3 billion toward things like developing solar and storage systems on public housing. “What we saw in Connecticut was a way to get community-scale renewable projects built that markets alone were not delivering,” Jason Kowalski, the executive director of the Public Renewables Project, told me. “With New York City, similarly, we’re looking to fill market gaps.” In a new report released Wednesday, his group — along with fellow left-leaning energy policy advocates Public Power NY and the Climate & Community Institute — proposed that New York City create its own green bank, modeled on Connecticut’s experiment. “We’re not thinking about public versus private,” Kowalski added. “We’re thinking of public versus nothing. We’re targeting places where nothing is getting built. This is a mechanism for building revenue-positive projects that are not being built because of the transaction costs or because there is no planning function that’s brought in to plan at any scale.” The proposal could find sympathetic eyes in Mayor Zohran Mamdani’s administration. The democratic socialist has embraced venturing where, since the 1990s, government has rarely gone. City Hall brokered a deal two weeks ago to chip in $30 million for New York University’s next-generation computing lab in exchange for 15% of the proceeds from any technology the facility develops and sells. As you may recall, I called the agreement “New Dealism for quantum computing.”
Public financiers could also come in handy as cities undertake the costly renovations and infrastructure upgrades needed to survive in a hotter, more meteorologically chaotic world. The European Commission this week unveiled new climate rules requiring governments to establish who is responsible for protecting citizens from climate disasters, Euronews reported. Brussels wants major cities to prepare for as much as 3 degrees Celsius of warming above pre-industrial norms. That’s more than double the warming we are already getting a taste of from El Niño.
Cement produces roughly 8% of global emissions of heat-trapping carbon dioxide — four times the output of airplanes. Cutting emissions across the wider economy requires building a lot of stuff. Paradoxically, that means using a lot more cement, adding to emissions. But a growing suite of startups is rolling out new technological approaches to make low-carbon cement. One of them just announced a major deal with Meta. The Facebook owner agreed to buy environmental attribute certificates associated with 200,000 tons of San Jose-based Fortera’s low-carbon cement. “Agreements of this scale and duration are what unlock financing and move projects from plans to production,” Fortera CEO Ryan Gilliam said in a statement. “They also show the market that low-carbon cement is a product that buyers are serious about and planning around for years to come.” The clean cement sector has been, as my colleague Katie Brigham wrote, riding the artificial intelligence wave.

Antimony is a lustrous, silvery-gray metalloid. It’s needed for solar panel glass and all kinds of batteries. And the U.S. overwhelmingly relies on imports of it from China and Tajikistan. Maybe not for long, Mining Technology hinted. On Wednesday, Alaska’s Department of Natural Resource gave its final approvals to the startup Nova Minerals. The project, funded with nearly $45 million from the Department of Defense, aims to begin production next year.
Editor’s note: This story has been updated to reflect the nature of Meta’s purchase from Fortera.