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On AI forecasts, California bills, and Trump’s fusion push

Current conditions: The intense rain pummeling Southern California since the start of the new year has subsided, but not before boosting Los Angeles’ total rainfall for the wet season that started in October a whopping 343% above the historical average • The polar vortex freezing the Great Lakes and Northeast is moving northward, allowing temperatures in Chicago to rise nearly 20 degrees Fahrenheit • The heat wave in southern Australia is set to send temperatures soaring above 113 degrees.

It’s not the kind of thing anyone a decade ago would have imagined: a communique signed by most of Western Europe’s preeminent powers condemning Washington’s efforts to seize territory from a fellow NATO ally. But in the days since the United States launched a surprise raid on Venezuela and arrested its long-time leader Nicolás Maduro, President Donald Trump has stepped up his public lobbying of Denmark to cede sovereignty over Greenland to the U.S. Senator Thom Tillis, the North Carolina Republican, and Senator Jeanne Shaheen, the Democrat from New Hampshire, put out a rare bipartisan statement criticizing the White House’s pressure campaign on Denmark, “one of our oldest and most reliable allies.” While Stephen Miller, Trump’s hard-line deputy chief of staff, declined to rule out an invasion of Greenland during a TV appearance this week, The Wall Street Journal reported Tuesday that Secretary of State Marco Rubio told lawmakers that the goal of the administration’s recent threats against the autonomously-governed Arctic island were to press Denmark into a sale.
The U.S. unsuccessfully tried acquiring Greenland multiple times during the 20th century, and invaded the island during World War II to prevent the Nazis from gaining a North American foothold after Denmark fell in the blitzkrieg. Indeed, Washington purchased the U.S. Virgin Islands, its second largest Caribbean territory, shortly after the 1898 Spanish-American war that brought Puerto Rico under American control. But the national-security logic of taking Greenland now, when the U.S. already maintains a military base there, is difficult to parse. “Greenland already is in the U.S. sphere of influence,” Columbia University political scientist Elizabeth N. Saunders wrote in a post on Bluesky. “It’s far cheaper for the U.S., in material, security, and reputational terms, to have Denmark continue administering Greenland and work within NATO on security.” One potential reason Trump might want the territory, as Heatmap’s Jael Holzman wrote last fall, is to access Greenland’s mineral wealth. But the logistics of getting rare earths out of both the ground and the Arctic to refineries in the U.S. are challenging. Meanwhile, in other imperialistic activities, Trump said Tuesday evening in a post on Truth Social that Venezuela would cede between 30 million and 50 million barrels of oil to the U.S., though the legal mechanism for such a transfer remains murky, according to The New York Times.
I told you last month about the in-house market monitor at the PJM Interconnection, the country’s largest power grid, urging federal regulators to prevent more data centers coming online within its territory until it can sort out how to reliably supply them with electricity. As Heatmap’s Matthew Zeitlin wrote days later, “everyone wants to know PJM’s data center plan.” On Tuesday, E&E News reported that PJM is expected to ratchet down its forecasts for how much power demand artificial intelligence will add on the East Coast. When the grid operator’s latest analysis of future needs comes out later this month, PJM Chief Operating Officer Stu Bresler said during a call last month that the projections for mid-2027 will be “appreciably lower” than the current forecast.
The merger of the parent company of Trump’s TruthSocial website and the nuclear fusion developer TAE Technologies, as I reported in this newsletter last month, is “flabbergasting” to analysts. And yet the pair’s partnership is advancing. On Tuesday, the companies announced that site selection was underway for a pilot-scale power plant set to begin construction later this year. The first facility would generate just 50 megawatts of electricity. But the companies said future plants are expected to pump out as much as 500 megawatts of power.
Meanwhile, the rival startup widely seen as the frontrunner to build America’s first fusion plant unveiled new deals of its own. Over at the CES 2026 electronics show in Las Vegas on Tuesday, Commonwealth Fusion Systems — which analysts say is taking a more simplified and straightforward pathway to commercializing fusion power than TAE — touted a new deal with microchip giant Nvidia and told the crowd at the conference that it had installed the first magnet at its pilot reactor, TechCrunch reported.
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Scott Wiener, the California state senator making a bid for Representative Nancy Pelosi’s long-held House seat, introduced two new bills he said were designed to ease rising energy costs. The first bill is meant to “get rid of a bunch of that red tape” that makes installing a heat pump expensive and challenging in the state, the Democrat explained in a video posted on Bluesky. The second piece of legislation would clear the way for renters to install small, plug-in solar panels on apartment balconies. “Right now, in California, it is way, way, way too hard, if not impossible, to install these kinds of units,” Wiener said. “We have to make energy more affordable for people.”
Sunrun is forming a new joint venture with the green infrastructure investor HASI to finance deployment of at least 300 megawatts of solar across what the companies billed as “more than 40,000 home power plants across the country.” As part of the deal, which closed last month, HASI will invest $500 million over an 18-month period into the new company, allowing the nation’s largest solar installer to “retain a significant long-term ownership position” in the projects. As I reported for exclusively Heatmap in October, a recent analysis by the nonprofit Permit Power, which advocates for easing red tape on rooftop solar, found that the cost of solar panels in the U.S. was far higher than in Australia or Germany due to bureaucratic rules. The HASI investment will help bring down the costs for Sunrun directly as it installs more panels.
Total U.S. utility-scale solar installations for 2025 were on track last month to beat the previous year, as I reported in this newsletter. But the phaseout of federal tax credits next year is set to dim the industry somewhat as projects race to start construction before the expiration date.
In another session at CES 2026, the electric transportation company Donut Labs claimed it’s made an affordable, energy-dense solid state battery that’s powering a new motorcycle and charges in just five minutes. The startup hasn’t yet produced any independent verification of those promises. But the company is known for what InsideEVs called its “sci-fi wheel-in electric motor” for its bikes.
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Will moving fast and breaking air permits exacerbate tensions with locals?
The Trump administration is trying to ease data centers’ power permitting burden. It’s likely to speed things up. Whether it’ll kick up more dust for the industry is literally up in the air.
On Tuesday, the EPA proposed a rule change that would let developers of all stripes start certain kinds of construction before getting a historically necessary permit under the Clean Air Act. Right now this document known as a New Source Review has long been required before you can start building anything that will release significant levels of air pollutants – from factories to natural gas plants. If EPA finalizes this rule, it will mean companies can do lots of work before the actual emitting object (say, a gas turbine) is installed, down to pouring concrete for cement pads.
The EPA’s rule change itself doesn’t mention AI data centers. However, the impetus was apparent in press materials as the agency cited President Trump’s executive order to cut red tape around the sector. Industry attorneys and environmental litigants alike told me this change will do just that, cutting months to years from project construction timelines, and put pressure on state regulators to issue air permits by allowing serious construction to start that officials are usually reluctant to disrupt.
“I think the intended result is also what will happen. Developers will be able to move more quickly, without additional delay,” said Jeff Holmstead, a D.C.-based attorney with Bracewell who served as EPA assistant administrator for air and radiation under George H.W. Bush. “It will almost certainly save some time for permitting and construction of new infrastructure.”
Air permitting is often a snag that will hold up a major construction project. Doubly so for gas-powered generation. Before this proposal, the EPA historically was wary to let companies invest in what any layperson would consider actual construction work. The race for more AI infrastructure has changed the game, supercharging what was already an active debate over energy needs and our nation’s decades-old environmental laws.
Many environmental groups condemned the proposal upon its release, stating it would make gas-powered AI data centers more popular and diminish risks currently in place for using dirtier forms of electricity. Normally, they argue, this permitting process would give state and federal officials an early opportunity to gauge whether pollution control measures make sense and if a developer’s preferred design would unduly harm the surrounding community. This could include encouraging developers to consider alternate energy sources.
“Inevitably agencies have flexibility as to how much they ask, and what this allows them to do is pre-commit in ways that’ll force agencies to take stuff off the table. What’s taken off the table, it’s hard to know, but you’re constraining options to respond to public concerns or recognize air quality impacts,” said Sanjay Narayan, Sierra Club’s chief appellate counsel.
Herein lies the dilemma: will regulatory speed for power sacrifice opportunities for input that could quell local concerns?
We’re seeing this dilemma play out in real time with Project Matador, a large data center proposal being developed in Amarillo, Texas, by the Rick Perry-backed startup Fermi Americas. Project Matador is purportedly going to be massive and Fermi claims its supposed to one day reach 11 GW, which would make it one of the biggest data centers in the world.
Fermi’s plans have focused on relying on nuclear power in the future. But the only place they’ve made real progress so far in getting permits is gas generation. In February, the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality gave Fermi its air permit for building and operating up to 6 gigawatts of gas power at Project Matador. At that time, Fermi was also rooting for relaxed New Source Review standards, applauding EPA in comments to media for signaling it would take this step. The company’s former CEO Toby Neugebauer also told investors on their first earnings call that Trump officials personally intervened to help get them gas turbines from overseas. (There’s scant public evidence to date of this claim and Neugebauer was fired by Fermi’s board last month.)
But now Fermi’s permit is also being threatened in court. In April, a citizens group Panhandle Taxpayers for Transparency filed a lawsuit against TCEQ challenging the validity of the permit. The case centers around whether the commission was right to deny a request for a contested case hearing brought by members of the group who lived and worked close to Project Matador. “Once these decisions are made, they don’t get reversed,” Michael Ford, Panhandle Taxpayers for Transparency’s founder, said in a fundraising video.
This is also a financial David vs. Goliath, as Ford admits in the fundraising video they have less than $2,000 to spend on the case – a paltry sum they admit barely covers legal bills. We’re also talking about a state that culturally and legally sides often with developers and fossil fuel firms.
At the same time, this lawsuit couldn’t come at a more difficult time as Fermi is struggling with other larger problems (see: Neugebauer’s ouster). Eric Allman, one of the attorneys representing Panhandle Taxpayers for Transparency, told me they’re still waiting on a judge assignment and estimated it’ll take about one year to get a ruling. Allman told me legally Fermi can continue construction during the legal challenge but there are real risks. “Applicants on many occasions will pause activity while there is an appeal pending,” he told me, “because if the suit is successful, they won’t have an authorization.”
Aerial photos reported by independent journalist Michael Thomas purportedly show Fermi hasn’t done significant construction since obtaining its air permit. Fermi did not respond to multiple requests for comment on the lawsuit.
Industry attorneys I spoke to who wished to remain anonymous told me it was too early to say whether EPA’s rulemaking would exacerbate local conflicts by making things move faster. “A lot of times the environmental community likes to litigate things in the hope delays will kill a project, so in that regard, this strategy may be harder for them to implement now,” one lawyer told me. “But just because a plant gets a permit doesn’t mean they can build.”
Environmental lawyers, meanwhile, clearly see more potential for social friction in a faster process. Keri Powell of the Southern Environmental Law Center compared this EPA action to xAI’s rapid buildout in Tennessee and Mississippi where the Al company’s construction of gas turbines before it received its permits has only added to local controversy. This new rule would not make what xAI did permissible; this is a different matter. Yet there are thematic similarities between what the company is doing and the new permitting regime, with natural gas generation expanding faster when companies are allowed to start forms of site work before an air permit is issued.
“By the time a permit is issued, the company will be very, very far along in constructing a facility. All they’ll need to do is bring in the emitting unit, and oftentimes that doesn’t entail very much,” she said. “Imagine you’re a state or local permitting agency – your ability to choose something different than what the company already decided to do is going to be limited.”
And more of the week’s top fights around development.
1. Berkeley County, South Carolina – Forget about Richland County, Ohio. All eyes in Solar World should be on this county where officials are trying to lift a solar moratorium.
2. Hill County, Texas – We have our first Texas county trying to ban new data centers and it’s in one of the more conservative pockets of the state.
3. Sussex County, New Jersey – A town in north Jersey rapidly changed course from backing a new data center to outright banning all projects.
4. Porter County, Indiana – The Chicago ex-urb of Valparaiso is significantly restricting data centers too, after pulling the plug on a large project under development.
5. King County, Washington – It’s Snoqualmie vs. the energy sector right now, as the new poster child for battery backlash bans BESS in its borders.
A conversation with Utah state senator Nate Blouin.
This week’s conversation is with Utah state senator Nate Blouin – a candidate for the Democratic nomination to represent the state’s 1st Congressional District, which includes Salt Lake City. I reached out to Blouin amidst the outpouring of public attention on the Box Elder County data center project backed by celebrity investor Kevin O’Leary. His positions on data centers and energy development, including support for a national AI data center moratorium, make him a must-watch candidate for anyone in this year’s Democratic congressional primaries. (It’s worth noting this seat was recently redrawn in ways that made it further left.)
The following conversation was lightly edited for clarity.
I guess to start, how’s the fight going?
On the [O’Leary] data center front? It’s good. People have really been activated by this. It’s always exciting for me to see when people get interested in politics because it hits close to their lives. I think that’s why you’re seeing people so passionate here. We had thousands file protests on their water rights change application. We had thousands show up to a county commission meeting in Box Elder County, Utah. The people have taken notice and understand the ramifications of such a gigantic project in our backyard. Officials are listening and I don’t know if that’s going to translate into concrete action to stop this thing but it’s good to have people involved, taking an interest in what I see as an environmental issue and an energy issue.
You’re running for office in the Salt Lake City area right?
Correct. I’m currently in the state senate representing central Salt Lake County running for a congressional district that is entirely located within northern Salt Lake County.
I assume your next question is: why is this a concern to you if this isn’t in Salt Lake County?
Yeah.
I was anticipating that.
This is a gigantic project. Several gigawatts of energy, an enormous amount to put on or off the grid depending on how it plays out. It’s a huge project, likely the largest natural gas generating facility in the country and on par with some of the largest generating facilities in the world. As the crow flies, my district right now and the one I’m running to represent are 50 to 70 miles across the Great Salt Lake just south of this proposed location. And we already have really massive air quality issues in our area. We have a Great Salt Lake that is struggling in incredible fashion, at one of its lowest ever levels and no hope of returning to normal in the near future. Any of those issues are going to come up, create climate damage, increase our ozone levels.
When you approach the data center issue as a candidate, how do you see it impacting your race and how do you approach the issue in general?
This ties together so many threads. The climate issues I’ve worked on in the past. Certainly looking at who is going to benefit here and who is going to lose out. We’ve seen the state give out massive tax incentives, to the tune of probably hundreds of millions of dollars. People are so angry about all these things. It’s these threads about billionaires who profit while we struggle with the air pollution that’s choking many in our community. That’s what put it at the center of this race. I think you’re going to see that more often across the country where other large proposals are.
On the larger picture, my perspective is that we need a moratorium on data centers as we envision what the future is. A national moratorium. I’m aligned with Sen. Bernie Sanders and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez on that front. Sanders endorsed my campaign because I see eye to eye with him on many issues including this one.
I don’t want these dumped in our backyard. This one in particular because of how enormous it is, but we’ve seen other proposals and I fought these in the legislature.
We need to ask, what is the future of this industry? While average people are struggling with high energy costs, why are we incentivizing all this infrastructure to benefit the select few who own this stuff?
We have to get public buy-in both on how the infrastructure works and how if we move forward with any of these, how they benefit our communities. The environmental aspect as well, all these communities that have been dumping grounds in the past aren’t going to want these either. We have to look at what the future of AI also looks like.
If I may, when I spoke with Senate candidate Graham Platner about this idea over the past weekend, he told me that he doesn’t want a moratorium for the sake of a moratorium.
Right.
I mean look, there are great things AI can do. Great medicines to be discovered. Weather forecasts. We can better utilize clean energy.
I want a moratorium because it gives time to actually envision what policies are needed to get buy-in. What role the government plays in managing these technologies, too. Make sure they’re being used in the public interest and not against us.
A mish-mash of policies across the states or just saying we’ll do the work isn’t the right approach. I think we need to take a pause and develop those strategies. Then we’ll see what happens and move forward.
I spoke with Holly Jean Buck about that Jacobin piece where she argued against a data center moratorium after previously being for it. She mentioned being concerned about this unique allegiance between the folks fighting data centers on the left and on the right. It’s unclear those folks have the same end goals.
What’s your take on that allegiance and if it’ll lead to positive development in the long term?
I think there are shared end goals.
Protecting land? There’s different reasons. On the right, they’re concerned about farmland and agricultural land being developed into things they don’t want, where on the left it's about public land and the general environmental picture. But on surveillance, for example, there’s more commonality in what we want to see. Most people don’t want to see more government intrusion.
I think there are commonalities and differences. It’ll be interesting to see how those pan out in the long run.
I agree with Platner’s statement. This is to figure out the path forward before we spend trillions of dollars on infrastructure that’ll be paid for by ratepayers.
My last question: do you think we’ll still be having the same conversation about all of this 10 years from now?
No. I don’t think so – if we take the time that’s needed to get public buy-in.
That’s why we have to see the government play an active role here. So far, they’ve let everyone do whatever they want. We can’t keep letting the billionaire class get whatever they want so they can make a bunch of money off of us.
To return to Utah, the process here was horrible. It was a data center that would encompass 40,000 acres. It’s a gigantic area and amount of emissions. And it was done through an opaque government agency that pushed it forward.
What I know from my work in the clean energy space, like with transmission, if you do the process right and forums and tell people you’re interested in doing something nearby and in X way, you can see people rally around those projects.
Here you saw Kevin O’Leary, a Canadian guy, come in and work behind the scenes to make himself a bunch of money.
We need to figure out how to do this in a way that envisions how the public can be involved.