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On Corpus Christi’s drought, China’s Scottish factory, and no more ships to give

Current conditions: Texas declared a wildfire disaster in 179 counties as hot, dry, windy weather puts more than half the state at risk • Floods caused by torrential rain from Tropical Storm Raymond and the remnants of Hurricane Priscilla killed at least 41 people in Mexico over the weekend • A heat wave in Central Asia is spiking temperatures as high as 95 degrees Fahrenheit.

Republicans are growing frustrated with President Donald Trump’s rollbacks of policies to support solar energy, the cheapest and fastest-growing source of electricity at a moment when power prices are soaring nationwide. In Georgia, voters who backed the president say the repeal of programs that offered free panels to low-income Americans is making them second-guess their ballots. One of those voters, 39-year-old Jennifer McCoy told The New York Times, “I like a lot of Trump’s outlooks on things, but there are some things, like the solar panels, that I don’t like, now that I know.”
Utah Governor Spencer Cox, meanwhile, went on a tear on X over the Bureau of Land Management’s quashing of the nation’s largest solar project, the 6.2-gigawatt Esmeralda 7 in Nevada. In a post that linked to the scoop Heatmap’s Jael Holzman published last week on the cancellation, Cox said, “This is how we lose the AI/energy arms race with China.” While he noted that “intermittent sources have been overvalued in the past (and offshore wind is a disaster and should be discontinued), the incredible leaps in battery technology completely change the value proposition of solar in the right places.” He went on to re-post messages from three think tank researchers criticizing the move and warnings about the energy needs of data centers.
Corpus Christi is the main water provider for South Texas, a region that has drawn the likes of Tesla, Exxon Mobil, fuel refineries, plastic producers, and lithium processors with what The Wall Street Journal called “the promise of land, cheap energy and, perhaps most critically, abundant water.” But a crippling drought is depleting the region’s reservoirs, and the city may fail to meet the area’s water demand in as little as 18 months. “Cue the panic,” the newspaper wrote. Industrial plants are bracing for rate hikes. “The water situation in South Texas is about as dire as I’ve ever seen it,” said Mike Howard, chief executive of Howard Energy Partners, a private energy company that owns several facilities in Corpus Christi. “It has all the energy in the world, and it doesn’t have water.”
China last week ratcheted up restrictions on exports of rare earths, including for electric vehicle batteries and semiconductors, kicking off another round of the trade war with the United States. But in Scotland, one of China’s biggest wind turbine manufacturers is investing more than $2 billion in building a new factory. Guangdong-based Ming Yang announced plans for its new plant to churn out parts for offshore turbines on Friday, though the company said the move was “subject to final approvals from the U.K. government,” the Financial Times reported.
In the U.S., meanwhile, the Trump administration’s crackdown on offshore wind is so severe the oil industry is stepping in to complain, warning that it’s setting a dangerous precedent for other energy sectors, as I reported in this newsletter last week. But private actors are, at least, responding to the Trump administration’s push to re-shore critical industries to the U.S. On Monday morning, JPMorgan Chase announced plans to invest $10 billion into mineral production and infrastructure for artificial intelligence.
Equinor’s 810-megawatt Empire Wind project off the coast of New York’s Long Island has faced real challenges, with the Trump administration halting construction in April before allowing it to resume in May. The latest hurdle? The developers can’t get hold of the specially-made vessel for installing wind turbines it was counting on having by next year. As Canary Media’s Clare Fieseler wrote on Friday, two shipbuilding companies broke into a public skirmish, with one unexpectedly canceling a contract and the other threatening legal action over the construction of the specialized ship. The vessel, which is more than 98% complete, is anchored in Singapore, its fate now uncertain. “We have been informed by Maersk of an issue concerning its contract with Seatrium related to the wind turbine installation vessel originally contracted by Empire Offshore Wind LLC for use in 2026,” an Equinor spokesperson told Fieseler. “We are currently assessing the implications of this issue and evaluating available options.”
The episode shows how the Trump administration’s “total war on wind power,” as Jael once put it, makes companies more vulnerable to other setbacks. The White House tasked a half-dozen federal agencies, as I previously wrote, with trying to block construction of offshore turbines. But the general lack of ships capable of carrying giant turbines was a problem even before Trump returned to office.
California lawmakers last week passed Senate Bill 655, a first-in-the-nation framework to set maximum standards for safe indoor temperatures in residential housing. The bill requires state agencies to achieve the standard as heat deaths surge across the country. While the state has long required homes to maintain a minimum indoor air temperature of 68 degrees Fahrenheit, there was no equivalent standard for heat. “SB 655 responds to the public health emergency of California’s deadly heat waves,” Senator Henry Stern, the bill’s lead author, said in a statement. “This bill proactively requires the state to include safe residential indoor temperatures in its policies and programs so that Californians, especially renters and low-income households who are most at risk, have life-saving cooling.”
It’s part of a bigger wave of state legislation on climate and energy that California just passed, as Heatmap’s Emily Pontecorvo outlined recently. Among them: Families who lose everything in future wildfires will now be able to collect the bulk of their insurance payout without having to catalog every item burned in the blaze under new legislation Governor Gavin Newsom signed Friday. Starting in 2026, as The New York Times reported, insurers must pay at least 60% of a homeowner’s personal-property coverage — up to $350,000 — without requiring a detailed inventory of everything lost. That’s double the 30% of the dwelling’s value that insurers were required to pay out in advance, with a payout capped at $250,000.
As the Trump administration is gutting funding for America's polar research, the British are stepping in. The British Antarctic Survey’s RRS Sir David Attenborough, a state-of-the-art ship named after the famed naturalist, will bolster research on everything from “hunting underwater tsunamis” to tracking glacier melt and whale populations. “The saying goes 'what happens in Antarctica doesn't stay in Antarctica,’” BAS oceanographer Peter Davis told reporters during a tour of the vessel as it prepared to depart Harwich, eastern England, last week.
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The decision marks the Trump administration’s second offshore wind defeat this week.
A federal court has lifted Trump’s stop work order on the Empire Wind offshore wind project, the second defeat in court this week for the president as he struggles to stall turbines off the East Coast.
In a brief order read in court Thursday morning, District Judge Carl Nichols — a Trump appointee — sided with Equinor, the Norwegian energy developer building Empire Wind off the coast of New York, granting its request to lift a stop work order issued by the Interior Department just before Christmas.
Interior had cited classified national security concerns to justify a work stoppage. Now, for the second time this week, a court has ruled the risks alleged by the Trump administration are insufficient to halt an already-permitted project midway through construction.
Anti-offshore wind activists are imploring the Trump administration to appeal this week’s injunctions on the stop work orders. “We are urging Secretary Burgum and the Department of Interior to immediately appeal this week’s adverse federal district court rulings and seek an order halting all work pending appellate review,” Robin Shaffer, president of Protect Our Coast New Jersey, said in a statement texted to me after the ruling came down.
Any additional delays may be fatal for some of the offshore wind projects affected by Trump’s stop work orders, irrespective of the rulings in an appeal. Both Equinor and Orsted, developer of the Revolution Wind project, argued for their preliminary injunctions because even days of delay would potentially jeopardize access to vessels necessary for construction. Equinor even told the court that if the stop work order wasn’t lifted by Friday — that is, January 16 — it would cancel Empire Wind. Though Equinor won today, it is nowhere near out of the woods.
More court action is coming: Dominion will present arguments on Friday in federal court against the stop work order halting construction of its Coastal Virginia offshore wind project.
On Heatmap's annual survey, Trump’s wind ‘spillover,’ and Microsoft’s soil deal
Current conditions: A polar vortex is sweeping frigid air back into the Northeast and bringing up to 6 inches of snow to northern parts of New England • Temperatures in the Southeast are set to plunge 25 degrees Fahrenheit below last week’s averages, with highs below freezing in Atlanta • Temperatures in the Nigerian capital of Abuja, meanwhile, are nearing 100 degrees.

To comically understate the obvious, it’s been a big year for climate. So Heatmap called up 55 of the most discerning and disputatious experts — scientists, researchers, innovators, and reformers; some of whom led the Biden administration’s policy efforts, some of whom are harsh or heterodox critics of mainstream environmentalism. We asked them to take stock of everything going on now, from the Trump administration’s shifting policy landscape to China’s evolving place in the world.
The results of that inquiry are now out. You can check out everything on this homepage.
Or see:
Wyoming is inching closer to building what could be the United States’ largest data center after commissioners in Laramie County last week unanimously approved construction of a complex designed to scale from an initial 1.8 gigawatts to 10 gigawatts. The facility, called Project Jade, is set to be built by the data center giant Crusoe, with the neighboring gas turbines to power the plant provided by BFC Power and Cheyenne Power Hub. Crusoe’s chief real estate officer, Matt Field, told commissioners last week that the first phase would “leverage natural gas with a potential pathway for CO2 sequestration in the future” by tapping into developer Tallgrass Energy Partners’ existing carbon well hub, Inside Climate News wrote Wednesday.
While the potential for renewables is under discussion, a separate state hearing last week highlighted mounting opposition to the most prolific source of clean power in the state: Wind energy. Nearly two dozen residents from central and southeast Wyoming lambasted a growing “wall” of wind turbines in what Wyofile described as “emotional pleas.” One Cheyenne resident named Wendy Volk said: “This is no longer a series of isolated projects. It is a continuous, or near continuous, industrial corridor stretching across multiple counties and landscapes.”

Global wind executives are warning of “negative spillover” effects on investor sentiment from the Trump administration’s suspended leases on all large U.S. offshore wind projects. In an interview with the Financial Times, Vestas CEO Henrik Andersen, who also serves as the president of the industry group WindEurope, called 2025 a “rollercaster” year. “When you have a 20- to 30-year investment program, the only way you can cover yourself for risk is to ask for a higher return,” he said. “When you get impairments in an industry, everyone would start saying, ‘could that hit us as well?’”
The British government seems willing to reduce that risk. On Wednesday, the United Kingdom handed out record subsidy contracts for offshore wind projects. At the same time, however, oil giant BP wrote down the value of its low-carbon business — which includes wind, solar, and hydrogen — by upward of $5 billion, according to The Wall Street Journal.
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Microsoft on Thursday announced one of the largest soil-based deals to remove carbon from the atmosphere. Under a 12-year agreement, the tech giant will purchase 2.85 million credits from the startup Indigo Carbon PBC, which sequesters carbon dioxide in soil through regenerative agricultural practices. It’s the third deal between Indigo and Microsoft, building on 40,000 metric tons in 2024 and 60,000 last year. “Microsoft is pleased by Indigo’s approach to regenerative agriculture that delivers measurable results through verified credits and payments to growers, while advancing soil carbon science with advanced modeling and academic partnerships,” Phillip Goodman, Microsoft’s director of carbon removal, said in a statement. Microsoft, as my colleague Emily Pontecorvo wrote recently, has “dominated” carbon removal over the past year, increasing its purchases more than fivefold in 2025 compared to 2024.
Despite major progress on clean energy, especially with solar and batteries, a new report by McKinsey & Company found big gaps between current deployments and 2030 goals. The analysis, the first from the megaconsultancy to include China and nuclear power, highlighted “notable discrepancies between announced projects and those with committed funding,” and warned that less than “15% of low-emissions technologies required to meet Paris-aligned goals have been deployed.” In a statement, Diego Hernandez Diaz, McKinsey partner and co-author of the report, said the “progress landscape is nuanced by region and technology and while achieving energy transition commitments remain paramount for countries and companies alike, recent announcements indicate that shifting priorities and slowing momentum have led to project pauses and cancellations across technologies.”
The findings come as emissions are rising. As I wrote in yesterday’s newsletter, the latest Rhodium Group estimate of U.S. emissions notched a reversal of the last two years of declines. In a new Carbon Brief analysis, climate scientist Zeke Hausfather found that 2025 was in the top-three warmest years on record with average surface temperatures reaching 1.44 Celsius above pre-industrial averages across eight independent datasets.
China just installed the most powerful turbine ever built offshore. The 20-megawatt turbine off the coast of Fujian Province set a record for both capacity and rotor diameter, 300 meters from its 147-meter blades. “Compared with offshore wind farms with 16-megawatt units, 20-megawatt units can help wind farms reduce the number of units by 25%, save sea area, dilute development costs, and open up economic blockages for the large-scale development of deep-sea wind power,” the manufacturer, Goldwind, said in a statement.
Rob takes Jesse through our battery of questions.
Every year, Heatmap asks dozens of climate scientists, officials, and business leaders the same set of questions. It’s an act of temperature-taking we call our Insiders Survey — and our 2026 edition is live now.
In this week’s Shift Key episode, Rob puts Jesse through the survey wringer. What is the most exciting climate tech company? Are data centers slowing down decarbonization? And will a country attempt the global deployment of solar radiation management within the next decade? It’s a fun one! Shift Key is hosted by Robinson Meyer, the founding executive editor of Heatmap, and Jesse Jenkins, a professor of energy systems engineering at Princeton University.
Subscribe to “Shift Key” and find this episode on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Amazon, or wherever you get your podcasts.
You can also add the show’s RSS feed to your podcast app to follow us directly.
Here is an excerpt from our conversation:
Robinson Meyer: Next question — you have to pick one, and then you’ll get a free response section. Do you think AI and data centers energy needs are significantly slowing down decarbonization, yes or no?
Jesse Jenkins: Significantly. Yeah, I guess significantly would … yes, I think so. I think in general, the challenge we have with decarbonization is we have to add new, clean supplies of energy faster than demand growth. And so, in order to make progress on existing emissions, you have to exceed the demand growth, meet all of that growth with clean resources, and then start to drive down emissions.
If you look at what we’ve talked about — are China’s emissions peaking, or global emissions peaking? I mean, that really is a game. It’s a race between how fast we can add clean supply and how fast demand for energy’s growing. And so in the power sector in particular, an area where we’ve made the most progress in recent years in cutting emissions, now having a large, and rapid growth in electricity demand for a whole new sector of the economy — and one that doesn’t directly contribute to decarbonization, like, say, in contrast to electric vehicles or electrifying heating —certainly makes things harder. It just makes that you have to run that race even faster.
I would say in the U.S. context in particular, in a combination of the Trump policy environment, we are not keeping pace, right? We are not going to be able to both meet the large demand growth and eat into the substantial remaining emissions that we have from coal and gas in our power sector. And in particular, I think we’re going to see a lot more coal generation over the next decade than we would’ve otherwise without both AI and without the repeal of the Biden-era EPA regulations, which were going to really drive the entire coal fleet into a moment of truth, right? Are they gonna retrofit for carbon capture? Are they going to retire? Was basically their option, by 2035.
And so without that, we still have on the order of 150 gigawatts of coal-fired power plants in the United States, and many of those were on the way out, and I think they’re getting a second lease on life because of the fact that demand for energy and particularly capacity are growing so rapidly that a lot of them are now saying, Hey, you know what, we can actually make quite a bit of money if we stick around for another 5, 10, 15 years. So yeah, I’d say that’s significantly harder.
That isn’t an indictment to say we shouldn’t do AI. It’s happening. It’s valuable, and we need to meet as much, if not all of that growth with clean energy. But then we still have to try to go faster, and that’s the key.
Mentioned:
This year’s Heatmap Insiders Survey
Last year’s Heatmap Insiders Survey
The best PDF Jesse read this year: Flexible Data Centers: A Faster, More Affordable Path to Power
The best PDF Rob read this year: George Marshall’s Guide to Merleau-Ponty's Phenomenology of Perception
This episode of Shift Key is sponsored by …
Heatmap Pro brings all of our research, reporting, and insights down to the local level. The software platform tracks all local opposition to clean energy and data centers, forecasts community sentiment, and guides data-driven engagement campaigns. Book a demo today to see the premier intelligence platform for project permitting and community engagement.
Music for Shift Key is by Adam Kromelow.