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Americans heard a lot about smoke precautions, Data For Progress found. But the survey also suggests a troubling acceptance of our new reality.

It’s been just over a week since smoke from Canadian wildfires swept over the East Coast, enveloping the region in a hazardous, multi-day haze. The crisis seemed to dissipate as quickly and confusingly as it arrived, even though it’s likely not even over.
At its climax, the event broke records. Wednesday, June 7, was by far the worst wildfire smoke day in U.S. history, in terms of the number of people that were exposed to toxic air.
But will it be remembered? In the long arc of climate-related disasters, will this one stick with us as a pivotal moment? Or will the continuing ebb and flow of smog rolling in from Canada this summer dilute the acuteness of the experience?
The progressive think tank Data For Progress conducted a poll of 1,236 likely voters from around the country last weekend about what happened in the Northeast. The results aren’t especially surprising, and since the smoke is likely to come back, and in the meantime has affected other parts of the U.S., it would probably be worth running the poll again in a week or two.
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But I do think the responses sketch a picture of how people are processing our new reality, where wildfire smoke is no longer solely the concern of the arid West, but a national public health threat.
Personally, I was relieved to see that the vast majority of voters of all political stripes — 89% — believe exposure to smoky air threatens public health, despite what they may have heard from a crank on Fox News. Also, even though the response from public officials may have been slow and inadequate, the majority of those surveyed had seen recommendations on how to protect themselves by wearing a face mask, running an air purifier, or by limiting their time outdoors. That’s a hopeful data point: As these events become more common, people will at least be better prepared for them.
The survey also investigated what voters believe caused the wildfires in Canada, asking them to rate the relationship between the fires and “climate change,” “poor land management,” “natural weather patterns,” and “fossil fuel corporations.” The results were predictably polarized on climate change, with 86% of Democrats, but only 33% of Republicans, blaming it at least somewhat, if not a great deal. However, most of the country seems to be in agreement that poor land management and weather patterns also played a role.
“There is still a gulf across party lines regarding how much voters directly attribute climate change to extreme weather events,” said Danielle Deiseroth, the executive director of Data for Progress. “Climate change doesn't care whether you live in a Red state or Blue state, it’s a threat to the public health of our entire country and planet, and we need action.”
To be clear, we don’t yet know the extent to which climate change played a role in the wildfires in Eastern Canada. Quebec was not in drought, though it had an unusually hot spring. “There is a clear link between climate change and the hotter conditions and fuel aridity that make ‘fire weather’ and wildfires more likely and more destructive,” climate scientist Zeke Hausfather wrote last week. “At the same time, any individual fire may be the result of a number of factors.”
The most interesting part of the poll, to me, was a section that tried to assess the country’s emotional response to the event.
Participants were asked about their feelings twice. First, they were prompted to report whether or not they felt frustrated, hopeless, scared, sad, confused, optimistic, pleased, or indifferent when thinking about the hazardous air quality on the East Coast. Then they were asked the same questions again after being shown an image of the Empire State Building obscured by a smoky, orange glow.

The vast majority of voters responded that they were neither indifferent (89-91%) nor pleased (98%) nor optimistic (95-97%) before and after being shown the photo. But many were hesitant to agree to any of the other suggested sentiments. Less than half of those polled acknowledged they felt sad, even after seeing the apocalyptic photo. The regional breakdown is also interesting: Fewer respondents in the Northeast reported feeling sad than anywhere else in the country, although they were the most likely to feel scared. The emotion that got the strongest response before seeing the photo was frustration, afterwards it was fear.
I found the results for sadness somewhat unsettling. The world as we’ve known it is dissolving in a cloud of smoke, yet we collectively struggle to mourn it. Some people might not understand or accept what is happening. But I fear that for others, the tepid reaction had more to do with the fact that we’ve all seen so many images like this by now.
Acclimatized, desensitized, whatever word you want to use — it’s possible this is the world many of us have come to expect. And because a defining feature of wildfire smoke is that it will reliably drift away, unlike the devastating impacts of the fire itself, it’s possible to look at this anomalous, tragic event and see not an occasion for mourning but just another familiar symptom of decay.
Or maybe people just have trouble admitting to being sad. On the bright side, the poll did find that 84% of voters didn’t feel hopeless, even after being shown the scary photo. Of course, we don’t know whether that’s because they are hopeful about tackling climate change. But I’d like to believe that’s the case, because there is so much work to do, and it’s important that people have faith that we can do it.
Data for Progress conducted a survey of 1,236 likely voters nationally using web panel respondents from June 9 to 11, 2023. The sample was weighted to be representative of likely voters by age, gender, education, race, geography, and voting history. The survey was conducted in English. The margin of error is plus or minus 3 percentage points.
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According to a new analysis shared exclusively with Heatmap, coal’s equipment-related outage rate is about twice as high as wind’s.
The Trump administration wants “beautiful clean coal” to return to its place of pride on the electric grid because, it says, wind and solar are just too unreliable. “If we want to keep the lights on and prevent blackouts from happening, then we need to keep our coal plants running. Affordable, reliable and secure energy sources are common sense,” Chris Wright said on X in July, in what has become a steady drumbeat from the administration that has sought to subsidize coal and put a regulatory straitjacket around solar and (especially) wind.
This has meant real money spent in support of existing coal plants. The administration’s emergency order to keep Michigan’s J.H. Campbell coal plant open (“to secure grid reliability”), for example, has cost ratepayers served by Michigan utility Consumers Energy some $80 million all on its own.
But … how reliable is coal, actually? According to an analysis by the Environmental Defense Fund of data from the North American Electric Reliability Corporation, a nonprofit that oversees reliability standards for the grid, coal has the highest “equipment-related outage rate” — essentially, the percentage of time a generator isn’t working because of some kind of mechanical or other issue related to its physical structure — among coal, hydropower, natural gas, nuclear, and wind. Coal’s outage rate was over 12%. Wind’s was about 6.6%.
“When EDF’s team isolated just equipment-related outages, wind energy proved far more reliable than coal, which had the highest outage rate of any source NERC tracks,” EDF told me in an emailed statement.
Coal’s reliability has, in fact, been decreasing, Oliver Chapman, a research analyst at EDF, told me.
NERC has attributed this falling reliability to the changing role of coal in the energy system. Reliability “negatively correlates most strongly to capacity factor,” or how often the plant is running compared to its peak capacity. The data also “aligns with industry statements indicating that reduced investment in maintenance and abnormal cycling that are being adopted primarily in response to rapid changes in the resource mix are negatively impacting baseload coal unit performance.” In other words, coal is struggling to keep up with its changing role in the energy system. That’s due not just to the growth of solar and wind energy, which are inherently (but predictably) variable, but also to natural gas’s increasing prominence on the grid.
“When coal plants are having to be a bit more varied in their generation, we're seeing that wear and tear of those plants is increasing,” Chapman said. “The assumption is that that's only going to go up in future years.”
The issue for any plan to revitalize the coal industry, Chapman told me, is that the forces driving coal into this secondary role — namely the economics of running aging plants compared to natural gas and renewables — do not seem likely to reverse themselves any time soon.
Coal has been “sort of continuously pushed a bit more to the sidelines by renewables and natural gas being cheaper sources for utilities to generate their power. This increased marginalization is going to continue to lead to greater wear and tear on these plants,” Chapman said.
But with electricity demand increasing across the country, coal is being forced into a role that it might not be able to easily — or affordably — play, all while leading to more emissions of sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxide, particulate matter, mercury, and, of course, carbon dioxide.
The coal system has been beset by a number of high-profile outages recently, including at the largest new coal plant in the country, Sandy Creek in Texas, which could be offline until early 2027, according to the Texas energy market ERCOT and the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis.
In at least one case, coal’s reliability issues were cited as a reason to keep another coal generating unit open past its planned retirement date.
Last month, Colorado Representative Will Hurd wrote a letter to the Department of Energy asking for emergency action to keep Unit 2 of the Comanche coal plant in Pueblo, Colorado open past its scheduled retirement at the end of his year. Hurd cited “mechanical and regulatory constraints” for the larger Unit 3 as a justification for keeping Unit 2 open, to fill in the generation gap left by the larger unit. In a filing by Xcel and several Colorado state energy officials also requesting delaying the retirement of Unit 2, they disclosed that the larger Unit 3 “experienced an unplanned outage and is offline through at least June 2026.”
Reliability issues aside, high electricity demand may turn into short-term profits at all levels of the coal industry, from the miners to the power plants.
At the same time the Trump administration is pushing coal plants to stay open past their scheduled retirement, the Energy Information Administration is forecasting that natural gas prices will continue to rise, which could lead to increased use of coal for electricity generation. The EIA forecasts that the 2025 average price of natural gas for power plants will rise 37% from 2024 levels.
Analysts at S&P Global Commodity Insights project “a continued rebound in thermal coal consumption throughout 2026 as thermal coal prices remain competitive with short-term natural gas prices encouraging gas-to-coal switching,” S&P coal analyst Wendy Schallom told me in an email.
“Stronger power demand, rising natural gas prices, delayed coal retirements, stockpiles trending lower, and strong thermal coal exports are vital to U.S. coal revival in 2025 and 2026.”
And we’re all going to be paying the price.
Rural Marylanders have asked for the president’s help to oppose the data center-related development — but so far they haven’t gotten it.
A transmission line in Maryland is pitting rural conservatives against Big Tech in a way that highlights the growing political sensitivities of the data center backlash. Opponents of the project want President Trump to intervene, but they’re worried he’ll ignore them — or even side with the data center developers.
The Piedmont Reliability Project would connect the Peach Bottom nuclear plant in southern Pennsylvania to electricity customers in northern Virginia, i.e.data centers, most likely. To get from A to B, the power line would have to criss-cross agricultural lands between Baltimore, Maryland and the Washington D.C. area.
As we chronicle time and time again in The Fight, residents in farming communities are fighting back aggressively – protesting, petitioning, suing and yelling loudly. Things have gotten so tense that some are refusing to let representatives for Piedmont’s developer, PSEG, onto their properties, and a court battle is currently underway over giving the company federal marshal protection amid threats from landowners.
Exacerbating the situation is a quirk we don’t often deal with in The Fight. Unlike energy generation projects, which are usually subject to local review, transmission sits entirely under the purview of Maryland’s Public Service Commission, a five-member board consisting entirely of Democrats appointed by current Governor Wes Moore – a rumored candidate for the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination. It’s going to be months before the PSC formally considers the Piedmont project, and it likely won’t issue a decision until 2027 – a date convenient for Moore, as it’s right after he’s up for re-election. Moore last month expressed “concerns” about the project’s development process, but has brushed aside calls to take a personal position on whether it should ultimately be built.
Enter a potential Trump card that could force Moore’s hand. In early October, commissioners and state legislators representing Carroll County – one of the farm-heavy counties in Piedmont’s path – sent Trump a letter requesting that he intervene in the case before the commission. The letter followed previous examples of Trump coming in to kill planned projects, including the Grain Belt Express transmission line and a Tennessee Valley Authority gas plant in Tennessee that was relocated after lobbying from a country rock musician.
One of the letter’s lead signatories was Kenneth Kiler, president of the Carroll County Board of Commissioners, who told me this lobbying effort will soon expand beyond Trump to the Agriculture and Energy Departments. He’s hoping regulators weigh in before PJM, the regional grid operator overseeing Mid-Atlantic states. “We’re hoping they go to PJM and say, ‘You’re supposed to be managing the grid, and if you were properly managing the grid you wouldn’t need to build a transmission line through a state you’re not giving power to.’”
Part of the reason why these efforts are expanding, though, is that it’s been more than a month since they sent their letter, and they’ve heard nothing but radio silence from the White House.
“My worry is that I think President Trump likes and sees the need for data centers. They take a lot of water and a lot of electric [power],” Kiler, a Republican, told me in an interview. “He’s conservative, he values property rights, but I’m not sure that he’s not wanting data centers so badly that he feels this request is justified.”
Kiler told me the plan to kill the transmission line centers hinges on delaying development long enough that interest rates, inflation and rising demand for electricity make it too painful and inconvenient to build it through his resentful community. It’s easy to believe the federal government flexing its muscle here would help with that, either by drawing out the decision-making or employing some other as yet unforeseen stall tactic. “That’s why we’re doing this second letter to the Secretary of Agriculture and Secretary of Energy asking them for help. I think they may be more sympathetic than the president,” Kiler said.
At the moment, Kiler thinks the odds of Piedmont’s construction come down to a coin flip – 50-50. “They’re running straight through us for data centers. We want this project stopped, and we’ll fight as well as we can, but it just seems like ultimately they’re going to do it,” he confessed to me.
Thus is the predicament of the rural Marylander. On the one hand, Kiler’s situation represents a great opportunity for a GOP president to come in and stand with his base against a would-be presidential candidate. On the other, data center development and artificial intelligence represent one of the president’s few economic bright spots, and he has dedicated copious policy attention to expanding growth in this precise avenue of the tech sector. It’s hard to imagine something less “energy dominance” than killing a transmission line.
The White House did not respond to a request for comment.
Plus more of the week’s most important fights around renewable energy.
1. Wayne County, Nebraska – The Trump administration fined Orsted during the government shutdown for allegedly killing bald eagles at two of its wind projects, the first indications of financial penalties for energy companies under Trump’s wind industry crackdown.
2. Ocean County, New Jersey – Speaking of wind, I broke news earlier this week that one of the nation’s largest renewable energy projects is now deceased: the Leading Light offshore wind project.
3. Dane County, Wisconsin – The fight over a ginormous data center development out here is turning into perhaps one of the nation’s most important local conflicts over AI and land use.
4. Hardeman County, Texas – It’s not all bad news today for renewable energy – because it never really is.