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From the source to the registers.

The term “heat pump” refers to any system that can extract heat from a colder space and transfer it to a warmer one. For example, refrigerators use heat pumps to remove heat from inside the fridge and expel it into your kitchen. Air conditioners use heat pumps to remove heat from inside the house and dump it outside. In this guide, the phrase “heat pump” refers specifically to HVAC equipment that is capable of both heating
and cooling the air inside a home. In other words, we’re talking about air conditioners that can also run in reverse, pulling heat from outside on a winter day and pumping it inside.
We’ve created this guide because when it comes to getting off fossil fuels, it does matter what you replace them with. Climate advocates tout electric heat pumps because they can create two to three times more heat per unit of energy than other heating equipment. Electric resistance heating, by contrast, is extremely wasteful, and if people start installing those systems en masse, that could actually increase emissions in the near term and make it more difficult to decarbonize the economy in the long term. By getting a heat pump, you won’t just be cutting emissions, you’ll be reducing the cost of cleaning up the electric grid because we’ll need less electricity overall.
That said, a poorly designed or installed system can negate many of the benefits that heat pumps have to offer. Whether you’re reading because you want to cut emissions, or save money on energy, or take advantage of the steady, quiet comfort heat pumps provide, it’s essential to do your homework and find a good contractor to work with. In this guide, we’ll cover how to know when it’s the right time to get heat pumps, the basics of understanding what your options are, common misconceptions about heat pumps, how to find and vet contractors, and more.
Larry Waters is the founder and president of Electrify My Home, a heating and air conditioning contractor in Northern California that specializes in heat pumps. Waters has worked in the HVAC industry for more than 40 years.
D.R. Richardson is the co-founder of Elephant Energy, a Boulder, Colorado-based startup that helps homeowners in Colorado and Massachusetts electrify by using building science and proprietary software to ensure good system design, and by managing all aspects of the project.
Jake Marin is the senior emerging opportunities manager for VEIC, a clean energy nonprofit that administers Vermont and D.C.’s energy efficiency programs among other decarbonization work across the country. Marin ran VEIC’s HVAC program for nearly 8 years and was recently given a “Champion of Energy Efficiency” award for his pioneering work bringing heat pumps to Vermont.
There are many, many kinds of electric heat pumps used for space heating and cooling. At a high level, there are two main categories that homeowners can typically choose from:
Within each of these are a handful of installation options:
The above designs aren’t mutually exclusive. You can install a system that’s fully ducted, fully ductless, or a combination of both. You can also combine a heat pump system with a fuel-burning furnace or boiler, known as a dual-fuel system. If aesthetics are important to you, there are also companies like Quilt that offer versions that can better integrate into the look of your home.
“Ductwork in unfinished space is easy. Ductwork in finished space is so expensive and hard that we typically don't recommend it,” said Richardson.Heat pumps also come in models with different “speeds” or “stages”:
There are also some technical specifications to be aware of, such as seasonal efficiency ratings:
The highest rated SEER2 device may have a lower HSPF2 rating, while the highest rated HSPF2 device may have a lower SEER2 rating.
Finally, heat pumps also come in many different sizes. Having a properly sized system is one of the most important factors for ensuring your heat pumps run efficiently and last a long time.
A good contractor will be able to walk you through different system designs and equipment options to find the answer that’s best suited to your house, your goals, and your budget.
“There’s a lot of companies out there that offer just what they have in the catalog and their salespeople can’t sell anything outside of that,” Waters told me. “That means the customer is going to get matched with that cookie cutter option if they go with that company. So how to choose a contractor is one of the most important things.”
Many people are used to setting their HVAC systems to different temperatures at different times of day — one temp for the morning and evening, another for when they leave for work, and another for bedtime. This makes sense with many furnaces and air conditioners because they’re usually designed to cycle on, blast hot or cold air at full capacity until they achieve the temperature you want, and then turn off, so turning down the system when you’re not home can save a lot of energy. But the most efficient “variable speed” heat pumps work differently — they use a lot of energy to reach a certain temperature, but once they hit it, they sip small amounts of energy to maintain it. Experts say a “set it and forget it” approach will give you the most efficient performance and the most consistent energy bills.
“Don’t worry about the number,” says Marin. “Just find your comfortable temperature, and then leave it alone, forget it’s even there.”
This topic can be divisive among HVAC experts, but in most of the continental U.S., you should be able to find a heat pump solution that will heat your home efficiently on the coldest winter days. The key is that the system has to be sized correctly. Richardson’s company, Elephant Energy, works in Colorado, where he says they’ve had two years in a row with days that got down to -13 degrees Fahrenheit, “and our fleet of hundreds of heat pumps have cranked out heat to keep homes nice and warm on those coldest days.”
There still may be scenarios where you
want to keep your furnace as a back-up, even if it’s not strictly necessary.
If you’re switching from fuel oil, propane, or electric resistance heating, you’re pretty much guaranteed to save money on your bills with heat pumps. But if you’re switching from natural gas, it really depends on where you live.
Richardson says that for a lot of his customers in Colorado, making the switch from gas to inverter heat pumps is cost neutral — they end up paying a bit more for heating in the winter but less for cooling in the summer, since the heat pump is often more efficient than whatever air conditioning they were replacing. At the same time, those who don't have air conditioning to start with could end up paying a bit more year-round.
Do you…
Short answer: Hold off on a heat pump, invest in weatherization.
Long answer: You may have arrived at this guide because you’re interested in decarbonizing your home, but if you have a relatively new heating and/or cooling system, it could actually be worse, emissions-wise, to replace it, due to the embedded carbon that went into manufacturing that equipment. Unless you’re really desperate to replace your existing system for comfort or financial reasons (if you have electric resistance heaters, for example, switching to heat pumps could save you a lot of money, since they use about a third of the electricity), we recommend getting a bit more life out of it first.
In the meantime, put your enthusiasm for decarbonization into making your home more efficient. Insulating and air sealing your home before you get heat pumps will help you save money in the near term and get you the best results from heat pumps later on.
Short answer: Consider a dual fuel system
Long answer: If you really need a new air conditioning system but your heater still has a lot of life left in it, consider installing a heat pump to work alongside your existing furnace or boiler. That way, you’ll get efficient cooling capacity that will save you money in the summer, and you’ll also be able to cut down on your fossil fuel consumption in the winter. You can set the heat pump to warm your home until it gets down to a certain temperature outside, at which point your furnace or boiler will kick in. (Many heat pump models can operate in very cold temperatures, so having a backup heating system like this is not necessary, but it may be a good intermediate step in certain cases.)
Short answer: It’s the perfect time to think about heat pumps!
Long answer: HVAC equipment typically lasts for 15 to 20 years, so 10 years is probably the earliest you would want to start thinking about a replacement. It’s probably safe to wait a few years longer, but you definitely don’t want to wait until your existing system breaks to start your heat pump journey. A heat pump retrofit can be a months-long process, from finding contractors, to evaluating quotes, to refining your plan, to getting permits and scheduling the work. If you’re in an emergency situation where your boiler broke and you really need heat, you could be forced to settle for a less-than-ideal solution. At the very least, start your research now and consider weatherization upgrades.
Short answer: Get a mini-split!
Long answer: Ductless mini-split heat pumps are a no-brainer to provide heating and cooling to a single room or zone. They can be very affordable — and in some cases free — with rebates and tax credits. If you want to retrofit the rest of your home to use heat pumps down the line, this will help you get familiar with the technology and will not preclude you from adding more later — though it is helpful to tell your contractor that now so they can take it into account.
Heat pumps can be a major investment. If you just want to add heating or cooling capacity to one or two rooms, it can cost $5,000 to $7,000 per room, on average, before incentives, Richardson told me. A whole-home solution averages $20,000 to $30,000 before incentives, but depending on the home and the system design can go much higher.
Do you have some rooms that are hotter in the summer or colder in the winter than others and you want to make your home more comfortable overall? Or is your goal to get better air filtration and ventilation? Or do you simply want to get off fossil fuels? It will be helpful to think through what you want to achieve and communicate that to your contractor so they can take that into account when they design your system.
The federal government offers a 30% tax credit for heat pumps, up to $2,000, not including labor, for certain energy efficient models. (Note that you can only get the full tax credit if you have $2,000 or more in tax liability the year you install the heat pumps.) The credit can’t be rolled over to the next tax year, but you can claim it in multiple years. Your state energy office, city, or utility may offer additional tax credits or rebates.
It’s important to learn about what’s available in your area before reaching out to contractors because some rebate programs require you to work only with approved partners. Also, the contractors you reach out to might not always be up to date on the latest incentive programs, so it’s a good idea to do some independent research and make sure you find someone who knows how to help you take advantage. There is, unfortunately, not yet any single directory where you can enter your zip code and find out about every possible rebate opportunity everywhere in the country, so it’s best to check multiple sources of information:
As with all home renovation projects, we strongly recommend getting at least three quotes from different contractors.
Heat pumps are common in some parts of the country, but in others it might be difficult to find a contractor who really knows their stuff. Dip your toes in a heat pump Reddit forum and you’ll find scores of homeowners asking what to do after a contractor told them that heat pumps don’t work and they should just stick with gas. Here are a few strategies for finding high quality heat pump contractors, in order of what we recommend:
Finding the right contractor is probably the most important decision you’ll make in this entire process, and it’s not uncommon to get quotes with wildly different recommendations. Here are some questions you can ask to help you get a sense of who really knows what they are talking about and is willing to go the whole nine yards to make sure you get a properly designed system:
Manual J is a formula that helps a contractor identify the right size HVAC system for your home. It requires taking detailed measurements throughout the building, inspecting your home’s insulation and other elements that will affect airflow and heat retention, and performing tests such as the “blower door” to assess how leaky your building’s envelope is. If you’re interested in using your ductwork or installing new ductwork, they should also perform a “Manual D” calculation. Waters told me that despite these calculations being industry standards, very few contractors actually go through the trouble of doing them. “What this does, it tells us exactly what size system I need for heating and cooling, and exactly how much air goes into each room,” he said.
Richards agreed, adding that you may want to ask what technology they use to size the system. “You need somebody who has a technology-driven tool that can actually measure the heating and cooling requirements of your home,” he says. “Are you doing a true Manual J, or are you sort of sticking your finger up in the air?”
If your contractor only works with one brand of equipment, you’re more likely to get a solution that’s convenient for them rather than one that’s custom designed for you.
Waters told me the registers — the vents that release air into a given room — are critical for occupant comfort. If your existing ductwork is designed to distribute air from a furnace, your registers may be designed to push air into the middle of the room. But with heat pumps, you want the air either pushed up toward the ceiling if the vents are down low or across the ceiling if they are up high, so that the house doesn’t feel drafty and you get proper circulation.
If you’re starting with heat pumps but you eventually want to electrify your stove, your clothes dryer, or your car, your home may need an electric panel upgrade or an electric service upgrade from the utility. What you don’t want is to put in heat pumps that eat up the rest of your home’s capacity and then have to deal with pricey upgrades down the line.
The Building Performance Institute and North American Technician Excellence are two organizations that train and certify contractors, auditors, and technicians in the latest building science and best practices. A certification doesn’t guarantee you’ve found the right contractor — it could mean they know a lot about installing heat pumps but still don’t know much about the models that work in the coldest climates, for instance. But it’s a helpful data point that shows they are investing in training.
After you’ve found a contractor or company to work with, settled on a system design, and secured financing, your installer is going to need to secure permits for the work. Then you’ll need to schedule the installation, which, depending on how busy your contractor is, can take several weeks to several months. The actual work should take one to three days, depending on how complicated it is.
Also — talk to your contractor about maintenance. Be sure to clean the filters regularly and do anything else they recommend to get the best performance and longest life out of your equipment.
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The transition to clean energy will be expensive today, even if it’ll be cheaper in the long run.
Democrats have embraced a new theory of how to win: run on affordability and cost-of-living concerns while hammering Donald Trump for failing to bring down inflation.
There’s only one problem: their own climate policies.
In state after state, governors and lawmakers are considering pulling back from their climate commitments — or have already reneged on them outright — out of a concern for the high costs that they could soon impose on voters. Democrats have justified the retreat by citing a new regime of sharper inflation, reduced federal support, and a need to deliver cheap energy of all kinds.
“We need to govern in reality,” New York Governor Kathy Hochul, for instance, said in a recent statement defending her approval of new natural gas infrastructure. “We are facing war against clean energy from Washington Republicans.”
Leaders in Pennsylvania, Massachusetts, New Jersey, and California have all sounded similar notes while making or considering changes to their own states’ policies.
“The trend toward a different approach to energy policy that puts costs and pragmatism first is very real,” Josh Freed, the senior vice president for climate and energy programs at Third Way, a center-left think tank, told me.
“Affordability is the entry ticket for any other policy goal that politicians have,” he continued. “It particularly makes sense on climate and clean energy because we’ve all been talking for years about the need to electrify. If electricity is expensive, then electrification is simply not going to happen.”
The challenge is an old one for climate policy. Climate change — fueled by fossil fuel pollution — will ultimately raise costs through heat waves, extreme weather impacts, and a depleted natural world. But voters don’t go to the polls for lower costs in 2075. They want a cheaper cost of living now.
Democrats have more tools in this fight than ever before, with wind, solar, and batteries often much cheaper than other forms of generation. But to fully realize those cost savings — and to decarbonize the grid faster than utilities or power markets would otherwise go — politicians must push for politically or financially costly policies that speed up the transition, sometimes putting long-term climate goals ahead of near-term affordability concerns.
“We’ve been talking about affordability as the entry point and not the end of the story. It’s important to meet consumers and voters and elected officials where they are,” Justin Balik, the vice president for state policy at Evergreen Action, a climate-focused think tank and advocacy group, told me.
“We can make the argument — because the data is on our side — that clean energy is still cheaper and is a big part of lowering costs.”
Part of what’s driving this shift among Democrats on climate policy is economics. The Trump administration’s war on clean energy has made it more difficult to build clean energy than some state-level policies once envisioned. Many emissions reduction targets passed during the late 2010s or early 2020s — like New York’s, which requires the state to reduce emissions 40% from 1990 levels by 2030 and 85% by 2050 — assumed much faster clean electricity buildouts than have happened in practice. The president’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act will end wind and solar tax credits next year, driving up project costs in some cases by 40% more than once projected.
The president’s war on wind power, in particular, has hit particularly hard in Northeastern states, where grid managers once counted on thousands of megawatts of new offshore wind farms to supply power in the afternoon and evenings while meeting the states’ climate goals. The Trump administration has succeeded in cancelling virtually all of the Northeast’s offshore wind projects outside New York.
But economics do not explain all of the shifts. Democrats seem to believe the president’s war on clean energy has created a fresh rhetorical opening for them: They can now cast themselves as champions of cheap energy in all forms. Some have even revived the old Obama-era “all of the above” slogan for this new era.
“We have an energy crisis. Electricity prices for homeowners and businesses have gone up over 20% in New Jersey. The only answer is all of the above,” Representative Frank Pallone, the ranking member of the House energy committee, told Politico in September.
Even politicians who once championed climate change have downplayed it in recent speeches. New York Mayor-elect Zohran Mamdani, who once described himself as a “proud ecosocialist,” barely mentioned climate change during his general election campaign for mayor.
Hochul’s recent moves illustrate the shift. Over the past year, she has delayed implementing New York’s cap-and-invest law, which seeks to reduce statewide carbon emissions 40% by 2030. She also paused the state’s ban on gas stoves and furnaces in new homes and low-rise buildings, which is due to go into effect next year. (A state court has ordered her to implement the cap-and-invest law by February.)
This month, Hochul approved two new natural gas pipelines as part of a rumored deal with the Trump administration to salvage New York’s wind farms. She defended the decision by appealing to — you guessed it — affordability.
“We have adopted an all-of-the-above approach that includes a continued commitment to renewables and nuclear power to ensure grid reliability and affordability,” she said in a statement.
New York’s neighbors have gone down similar paths. In Pennsylvania, Governor Josh Shapiro struck a budget compromise with Republican lawmakers that will remove the state from the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative, or RGGI, a compact of Northeastern states to cap carbon pollution from power plants and invest the resulting revenue.
Shapiro blamed Republicans, who he said have “used RGGI as an excuse to stall substantive conversations about energy,” but said he was focused on — yes, again— “cutting costs.”
“I’m going to be aggressive about pushing for policies that create more jobs in the energy sector, bring more clean energy onto the grid, and reduce the cost of energy for Pennsylvanians,” he said before signing the budget deal.
California has also reworked its own climate policy in response to cost-of-living concerns. Earlier this year, it passed an energy package that re-upped its cap-and-trade program while allowing new oil extraction in south-central Kern County. The legislation was partly driven by a fear that local refineries would shutter — and gas prices could soar — without more crude production.
Massachusetts could soon join the pullback. Earlier this month, the state’s House of Representatives fast-tracked a bill that included a provision nullifying a legal mandate to cut carbon emissions in half by 2030, as compared to 1990 levels.
While the bill preserved the state’s longer-term goal to cut emissions by 80% by 2050, it rendered the 2030 mandate “advisory in nature and unenforceable.”
“The number one goal is to save money and adjust to the reality with clean energy,” Representative Mark Cusack, co-chair of the energy and utilities committee and the bill’s sponsor, told the local Commonwealth Beacon. He said the Trump administration’s “assault” on clean energy made the pullback necessary. “We want to get there, but if we’re going to miss our mandates and it’s not the fault of ours, it’s incumbent on us not to get sued and not have the ratepayers be on the hook,” he said.
Cusack’s bill also included measures to transform the state’s Mass Save program — which helps households and businesses to switch to electrified heating and appliances — by dropping the program’s climate mandate and its ban on buying efficient natural gas appliances.
On Monday, lawmakers removed the mandate provision from the bill but preserved its other reforms. While the bill is no longer fast tracked, they could choose to revisit the legislation as soon as next year.
New Jersey may also revisit its own climate commitments. Governor-elect Mikie Sherrill swept to victory this month in part by promising to freeze state utility rates. She could do that in part by lifting or suspending certain “social benefit charges” now placed on state power bills.
In the long term, though, Sherrill will have to pursue other policies to lower rates. Researchers at Evergreen Action and the National Resources Defense Council have argued that changing the state’s electricity policies could lower carbon emissions while saving ratepayers more than $400 a year by 2030.
Balik described the proposal as a “three-legged stool” of immediate rate relief, medium-term clean energy deployment, and long-term utility business model reform. He also mourned that other states have not used revenue from their climate programs to pay for climate programs.
“There’s a danger of looking at cost concerns a little myopically,” he said. “Cap and invest [in New York] was paused for the stated reason that it’s not helpful with cost, but you could use cap-and-invest revenues to pay for things on the rate base now.”
Current conditions: Severe thunderstorms will bring winds of up to 85 miles per hour to parts of the Texarkana region • A cold front in Southeast Asia is stirring waves up to three meters high along the shores of Vietnam • Parts of Libya are roasting in temperatures as high as 95 degrees Fahrenheit.
David Richardson, the acting head of the Federal Emergency Management Agency, resigned Monday after just six months on the job. Richardson had no experience in managing natural disasters, and Axios reported, he “faced sharp criticism for being unavailable” amid the extreme floods that left 130 dead in Central Texas in July. A month earlier, Richardson raised eyebrows when he held a meeting in which he told staff he was unaware the U.S. had a hurricane season. He was, however, a “loyalist” to Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem, CNN reported.
With hurricane season wrapping up this month, President Donald Trump was preparing to fire Richardson in the lead up to an overhaul of the agency, whose resources for carrying out disaster relief he wants to divvy up among the states. When FEMA staffers criticized the move in an open letter over the summer, the agency suspended 40 employees who signed with their names, as I wrote in the newsletter at the time.
The Environmental Protection Agency proposed stripping federal protections from millions of acres of wetlands and streams. The New York Times cast the stakes of the rollback as “potentially threatening sources of clean drinking water for millions of Americans” while delivering “a victory for a range of business interests that have lobbied to scale back the Clean Water Act of 1972, including farmers, home builders, real estate developers, oil drillers and petrochemical manufacturers.” At an event announcing the rulemaking, EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin recognized that the proposal “is going to be met with a lot of relief from farmers, ranchers, and other landowners and governments.” Under the Clean Water Act, companies and individuals need to obtain permits from the EPA before releasing pollutants into the nation’s waterways, and permits from the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers before discharging any dredged or fill material such as sand, silt, or construction debris. Yet just eliminating the federal oversight doesn’t necessarily free developers and farmers of permitting challenges since that jurisdiction simply goes to the state.

Americans are spending greater lengths of time in the dark amid mounting power outages, according to a new survey by the data analytics giant J.D. Power. The report, released last month but highlighted Monday in Utility Dive, cited “increased frequency and severity of extreme weather events” as the cause. The average length of the longest blackout of the year increased in all regions since 2022, from 8.1 hours to 12.8 by the midpoint of 2025. Ratepayers in the South reported the longest outages, averaging 18.2 hours, followed by the West, at 12.4 hours. While the duration of outages is worsening, the number of Americans experiencing them isn’t, J.D. Power’s director of utilities intelligence, Mark Spalinger, told Utility Dive. The percentage of ratepayers experiencing “perfect power” without any interruptions is gradually rising, he said, but disasters like storms and fires “are becoming so much more extreme that it creates these longer outage events that utilities are now having to deal with.”
The problem is particularly bad in the summertime. As Heatmap’s Matthew Zeitlin explained back in June, “the demands on the grid are growing at the same time the resources powering it are changing. Between broad-based electrification, manufacturing additions, and especially data center construction, electricity load growth is forecast to grow several percent a year through at least the end of the decade. At the same time, aging plants reliant on oil, gas, and coal are being retired (although planned retirements are slowing down), while new resources, largely solar and batteries, are often stuck in long interconnection queues — and, when they do come online, offer unique challenges to grid operators when demand is high.”

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You win some, you lose some. Earlier this month, solar developer Pine Gate Renewables blamed the Trump administration’s policies in its bankruptcy filing. Now a major solar manufacturer is crediting its expansion plans to the president. Arizona-based First Solar said last week it plans to open a new panel factory in South Carolina. The $330 million factory will create 600 new jobs, E&E News reported, if it comes online in the second half of next year as planned. First Solar said the investment is the result of Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act. “The passage of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act and the Administration’s trade policies boosted demand for American energy technology, requiring a timely, agile response that allows us to meet the moment,” First Solar CEO Mark Widmar said in a statement. “We expect that this new facility will enable us to serve the U.S. market with technology that is compliant with the Act’s stringent provisions, within timelines that align with our customers’ objectives.”
If you want to review what actually goes into making a solar panel, it’s worth checking out Matthew’s explainer from the Climate 101 series.
French oil and gas giant TotalEnergies said Monday it would make a $6 billion investment into power plants across Europe, expanding what The Wall Street Journal called “a strategy that has set it apart from rivals focused on pumping more fossil fuels.” To start, the company agreed to buy 50% of a portfolio of assets owned by Energeticky a Prumyslovy Holding, the investment fund controlled by the Czech billionaire Daniel Kretinsky. While few question the rising value of power generation amid a surge in electricity demand from the data centers supporting artificial intelligence software, analysts and investors “question whether investment in power generation — particularly renewables — will be as lucrative as oil and gas.” Rivals Shell and BP, for example, recently axed their renewables businesses to double down on fossil fuels.
The world has successfully stored as much carbon dioxide as 81,044,946 gasoline-powered cars would emit in a year. The first-ever audit of all major carbon storage projects in the U.S., China, Brazil, Australia, and the Middle East found over 383 million tons of carbon dioxide stored since 1996. “The central message from our report is that CCS works, demonstrating a proven capability and accelerating momentum for geologic storage of CO2,” Samuel Krevor, a professor of subsurface carbon storage at Imperial College London’s Department of Earth Science and Engineering, said in a press release.
New Jersey Governor-elect Mikie Sherrill made a rate freeze one of her signature campaign promises, but that’s easier said than done.
So how do you freeze electricity rates, exactly? That’s the question soon to be facing New Jersey Governor-elect Mikie Sherrill, who achieved a resounding victory in this November’s gubernatorial election in part due to her promise to declare a state of emergency and stop New Jersey’s high and rising electricity rates from going up any further.
The answer is that it can be done the easy way, or it can be done the hard way.
What will most likely happen, Abraham Silverman, a Johns Hopkins University scholar who previously served as the New Jersey Board of Public Utilities’ general counsel, told me, is that New Jersey’s four major electric utilities will work with the governor to deliver on her promise, finding ways to shave off spending and show some forbearance.
Indeed, “We stand ready to work with the incoming administration to do our part to keep rates as low as possible in the short term and work on longer-term solutions to add supply,” Ralph LaRossa, the chief executive of PSE&G, one of the major utilities in New Jersey, told analysts on an earnings call held the day before the election.
PSE&G’s retail bills rose 36% this past summer, according to the investment bank Jefferies. As for what working with the administration might look like, “We expect management to offer rate concessions,” Jefferies analyst Paul Zimbrado wrote in a note to clients in the days following the election, meaning essentially that the utility would choose to eat some higher costs. PSE&G might also get “creative,” which could mean things like “extensions of asset recoverable lives, regulatory item amortization acceleration, and other approaches to deliver customer bill savings in the near-term,” i.e. deferring or spreading out costs to minimize their immediate impact. “These would be cash flow negative but [PSE&G] has the cushion to absorb it,” Zimbrado wrote.
In return, Silverman told me that the New Jersey utilities “have a wish list of things they want from the administration and from the legislature,” including new nuclear plants, owning generation, and investing in energy storage. “I think that they are probably incented to work with the new administration to come up with that list of items that they think they can accomplish again without sacrificing reliability.”
Well before the election, in a statement issued in August responding to Sherrill’s energy platform, PSE&G hinted toward a path forward in its dealings with the state, noting that it isn’t allowed to build or own power generation and arguing that this deregulatory step “precluded all New Jersey electric companies from developing or offering new sources of power supply to meet rising demand and reduce prices.” Of course, the failure to get new supply online has bedeviled regulators and policymakers throughout the PJM Interconnection, of which New Jersey is a part. If Mikie Sherrill can figure out how to get generation online quickly in New Jersey, she’ll have accomplished something more impressive than a rate freeze.
As for ways to accomplish the governor-elect’s explicit goal of keeping price increases at zero, Silverman suggested that large-scale investments could be paid off on a longer timeline, which would reduce returns for utilities. Other investments could be deferred for at least a few years in order to push out beyond the current “bubble” of high costs due to inflation. That wouldn’t solve the problem forever, though, Silverman told me. It could simply mean “seeing lower costs today, but higher costs in the future,” he said.
New Jersey will also likely have to play a role in deliberations happening in front of the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission about interconnecting large loads — i.e. data centers — a major driver of costs throughout PJM and within New Jersey specifically. Rules that force data centers to “pay their own way” for transmission costs associated with getting on the grid could relieve some of the New Jersey price crunch, Silverman told me. “I think that will be a really significant piece.”
Then there’s the hard way — slashing utilities’ regulated rates of return.
In a report prepared for the Natural Resources Defence Council and Evergreen Collective and released after the election, Synapse Economics considered reducing utilities’ regulated return on equity, the income they’re allowed to generate on their investments in the grid, from its current level of 9.6% as one of four major levers to bring down prices. A two percentage point reduction in the return on equity, the group found, would reduce annual bills by $40 in 2026.
Going after the return on equity would be a more difficult, more contentious path than working cooperatively on deferring costs and increasing generation, Silverman told me. If voluntary and cooperative solutions aren’t enough to stop rate increases, however, Sherrill might choose to take it anyway. “You could come in and immediately cut that rate of return, and that would absolutely put downward pressure on rates in the short run. But you establish a very contentious relationship with the utilities,” Silverman told me.
Silverman pointed to Connecticut, where regulators and utilities developed a hostile relationship in recent years, resulting in the state’s Public Utilities Regulatory Authority chair, Marissa Gillett, stepping down last month. Gillett had served on PURA since 2019, and had tried to adopt “performance-based ratemaking,” where utility payouts wouldn’t be solely determined by their investment level, but also by trying to meet public policy goals like energy efficiency and reducing greenhouse gas emissions.
Connecticut utilities said these rules would make attracting capital to invest in the grid more difficult. Gillett’s tenure was also marred by lawsuits from the state’s utilities over accusations of “bias” against them in the ratemaking process. At the same time, environmental and consumer groups hailed her approach.
While Sherrill and her energy officials may not want to completely overhaul how they approach ratemaking, some conflict with the state’s utilities may be necessary to deliver on her signature campaign promise.
Going directly after the utilities’ regulated return “is kind of like making your kid eat their broccoli,” Silverman said. “You can probably make them eat it. You can have a very contentious evening for the rest of the night.”