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On California’s cap-and-trade, Empire Wind, and a new Subaru
Current conditions: The Des Moines area could see hail the size of “a hen egg” today • Heavy snow in the Alps is expected to create dangerous avalanche conditions over Easter weekend • Saharan dust could reduce solar generation in central and southern Europe by 10% to 20% over the next few days.
1. California seeks to extend its cap and trade program
In the wake of President Trump’s early April executive order seeking to curtail states’ ability to legislate on climate pollution, which singled out California’s cap and trade program as “fundamentally irreconcilable with my administration’s objective to unleash American energy,” California Governor Gavin Newsom and Democratic state legislators announced plans on Wednesday to reauthorize the program later this year.
California’s Republican Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger proposed and signed cap and trade into existence in 2006, and Democratic Governor Jerry Brown reauthorized it in 2017. According to the state’s Air Resources Board, California has funded $28 billion in climate investments and created 30,000 jobs in the past decade through the program, which sets a declining annual total emissions cap and requires polluters to buy allowances or offsets, and is set to expire in 2030. “California’s efforts to cut harmful pollution won’t be derailed by a glorified press release masquerading as an executive order,” Newsom said in a statement.
2. Trump administration announces intent to take down New York’s Empire Wind
The Trump administration announced Wednesday its intent to “immediately halt all construction activities on the Empire Wind Project until further review of information that suggests the Biden administration rushed through its approval without sufficient analysis,” Heatmap’s Emily Pontecorvo and Jael Holzman report. If indeed halted, the project would mark the first time the Trump administration has stopped an offshore wind project under construction. As Emily and Jael note, canceling Empire Wind would be disastrous for New York State’s climate goals, since offshore wind was supposed to be a path forward from the New York City area’s current reliance on natural gas, which had replaced carbon-free energy after the Indian Point nuclear plant closed in 2021. In a statement, the American Clean Power Association, the country’s largest renewables trade association, slammed the administration’s decision and argued that “halting construction of fully permitted energy projects is the literal opposite of an energy abundance agenda.”
And in case you missed it, Emily also scooped on Wednesday that Occidental Petroleum has bought direct air capture startup Holocene for an undisclosed amount.
3. Subaru debuts new EV aimed at the Rivian crowd
In a surprise debut at the New York Auto Show, Subaru unveiled its newest electric vehicle: the Trailseeker, a crossover thatInside EVs described as “a step up from the Solterra in just about every way.” The Trailseeker is notably aimed at the “outdoorsy lifestyle” crowd and could compete with the upcoming Rivian R2, both of which are expected to enter production in 2026, TechCrunch writes. The Trailseeker will also be Subaru’s fastest vehicle in the U.S., with 375 horsepower that can kick it from 0 to 60 miles per hour in 4.3 seconds and more cargo space than the Solterra, the automaker’s other EV. But range “isn’t the Trailseeker’s strong point,” Engadget notes, with a charge topping out at 260 miles, and “charging won’t be blazingly fast either as it’s limited to 150 kilowatts.” While it doesn’t have a price tag yet, Jalopnik expects a starting price in the ballpark of $45,000.
Subaru
4. Crux raises $50 million Series B funding
Crux, a New York-based capital markets platform that helps facilitate the transfer of tax credits under the Inflation Reduction Act to clean energy and manufacturing projects, announced Wednesday that it had closed a $50 million Series B funding round. Lowercarbon Capital, which also led Crux’s seed round, led the latest round of funding, which featured several new investors. Crux said it intends to use the funding to expand its network, diversify its transaction types, advance its software platform, enhance its market pricing tool Cruxtimate, and scale its team.
“We’re in a new era of global competition, with energy demand rising to the highest levels ever observed,” Alfred Johnson, the CEO and co-founder of Crux, said in a statement. “This new round of funding will help us to meet growing energy demand by making it easier, faster, and more affordable for clean energy developers and manufacturers to finance their projects.”
5. Entirety of Puerto Rico loses power in island-wide blackout
All of Puerto Rico was without electricity on Wednesday after every power plant on the island went out of service at once. According to the director of Luma Energy, which distributes power to the territory, complete restoration to its 1.4 million clients could take up to 72 hours. The exact cause of the blackout is not yet known.
Since Hurricane Maria in 2017, blackouts have not been uncommon on the island — hospitals and the many hotels hosting Easter-week tourists are operating on generators, The Associated Press reports. Puerto Rico’s energy czar, Josué Colón, previously warned of likely summer power problems due to an anticipated lack of generating capacity to meet peak demand. “They have to improve,” one local told the AP. “Those who are affected are us, the poor.”
Researchers have found “the strongest indication yet of extraterrestrial life” on a planet 120 light-years from Earth, The New York Times reports. The planet’s atmosphere contains a “tremendous supply” of dimethyl sulfide, which on Earth has only one known source: living marine organisms, such as algae.
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On NOAA’s disappearing websites, Penn Station plans, and PJM reforms
Current conditions: Tornadoes, hail, high winds, and thunderstorms could hit a dozen states between Texas and the Great Lakes over Easter weekend • The highest peaks on Hawaii’s Big Island may get 3 to 5 inches of snow today • Cyclone Errol, the first storm to reach a Category 5-equivalent strength this year, has weakened and will bring wind and rain to Western Australia on Friday afternoon.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has allowed funding to lapse for regional climate hubs that serve 27 states, causing the websites to go dormant on Thursday. The climate centers “are housed at research universities and operate under contract with NOAA,” Bloomberg writes. Between the hubs’ creation in the early 1980s and 2025, Texas’ now-defunct Southern Regional Climate Center logged 190 weather disasters alone. As I wrote earlier this year, cutting exactly this kind of research can have “immediate — and in some cases, deadly — impacts on regular Americans.”
Also this week, NOAA updated its “Notice of Changes” list to include 14 databases it is decommissioning and that will no longer be available as of early to late May. These databases include a list of geothermal hot springs in the United States, an earthquake intensity database, and a coastal water temperature guide. Eos notes that while NOAA regularly prunes its databases, it did so “just seven times in 2024 and six times in 2023.”
Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images
Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy announced Thursday that the Trump administration is taking over the renovation of New York’s Pennsylvania Station, one of the busiest transit centers in the world. “President Trump has made it clear: The days of reckless spending and blank checks are over,” Duffy said in a statement announcing the takeover, which he said was necessary due to the Metropolitan Transportation Authority’s “history of inefficiency, waste, and mismanagement.”
Democratic Governor Kathy Hochul said she’d personally requested the assistance from President Trump and praised the administration’s decision, calling it a “major victory for New Yorkers” because “the use of federal funds will save New York taxpayers $1.3 billion that would have otherwise been necessary for this project.” Tom Wright, the president of the Regional Plan Association, a civic think tank that has advocated for Penn Station’s renewal, also praised the decision, telling The New York Times that Trump “could name it after himself, if that’s what it takes.” Assemblyman Tony Simone, whose district includes Penn Station, took a more doubtful tone: “I am beyond skeptical that this federal government can manage a project of this size by seizing control while simultaneously slashing funding,” he said.
The energy and economic consulting firm Synapse Energy and Evergreen Action, a left-of-center climate advocacy group, released an analysis this week of the benefits of making interconnection reforms to PJM, the regional transmission organization for 13 states in the mid-Atlantic region and Washington, D.C. According to their findings, if PJM takes “swift action” to resolve its interconnection queue delays, then by 2040:
You can read the full analysis and more about the reforms here.
Hyundai announced Thursday that it will be temporarily suspending production of its Ioniq 5 and Kona electric vehicles in South Korea due to U.S. tariffs and slowing demand, Reuters reports. The pause at the Ulsan facility will last from April 24 to 30, and follows a five-day pause in February at the same plant due to a decrease in backorders. The decision also comes after President Trump imposed a 25% tariff on imported vehicles and parts, as well as his announcement with Hyundai last month of a $21 billion investment in U.S. onshoring, EV writes.
A new Gallup poll released this week found that 48% of Americans believe global warming will threaten them at some point in the future, a level that is consistent with Heatmap’s own finding that 44% of Americans already say they are “very” or “somewhat” affected by climate change. Perhaps more concerningly, though, Gallup’s findings also revealed skepticism among respondents regarding how global warming is being portrayed by the media. Forty-one percent of Americans now say the news “generally exaggerates” the seriousness of climate change, the highest number Gallup has recorded for that question in a decade and up from 37% last March. Another 38% said they believe the news underestimates the issue, while 20% said coverage generally strikes the right tone. Gallup’s poll was conducted by telephone between March 3 and 16 and reached a random sample of 1,002 adults; the margin of error was plus or minus 4%.
New York City’s mandatory composting program, now in its second week, has been so successful that the city is opening a new giveaway site to accommodate demand for the “black gold” it produces.
Tariffs and the loss of Inflation Reduction Act incentives could realign new power pricing, according to Morgan Stanley.
If you’re putting new power onto the grid right now, the cheapest option is likely solar. Thanks to years of declining equipment costs, generous federal subsidies, and voluntary renewables buyers like big technology companies, much of America’s planned future electricity generation is solar (along with battery storage). Of the 63 gigawatts planned to be added to the grid this year, the Energy Information Administration has estimated that solar will make up about half of it, while solar and storage collectively will make up over 80%.
While there’s no one single price for a megawatt-hour of any given power generation source, a good place to start are estimates from the financial advisory firm Lazard of the levelized cost of energy, which is supposed to allow comparisons between different generation sources. When Lazard put out its updated figures last summer, the average cost of utility solar was $61 per megawatt-hour. For a combined cycle natural gas plant, the most common type of gas generation, the average cost was $76.
But that math may be endangered, according to a new analysis by Morgan Stanley — to the point where solar could lose its competitive cost advantage with new natural gas.
“The cost of power generation is moving higher. The impact of tariffs and potential changes to subsidy support (i.e., IRA) will likely have an inflationary impact on the cost of power,” the analysts wrote to clients.
The team of analysts looked at the impact of both tariffs and the possible reduction or cessation of Inflation Reduction Act tax credits on utility-scale solar costs. According to Morgan Stanley’s figures, about half of the capital expenditure for a utility-scale solar project comes from the hardware, which is mostly the cost of the panels.
While some panels are produced in the United States, there are still significant imports from Southeast Asia, which currently face preliminary tariffs as high as several hundred percent. Those should become permanent later this month when the Department of Commerce completes its investigation into “dumping” by Chinese solar companies that have set up shop in the region.
The imports of these solar panels — some $10 billion in 2024, according to Tim Brightbill, a lawyer for a coalition of domestic solar manufacturers who are pursuing the anti-dumping case — “undercut and really drove down prices in the U.S. solar market,” Brightbill told a group of reporters Thursday. “It forced U.S. producers to significantly reduce their prices,” he said. “The industry was sort of pushed into a cost price squeeze.”
Those days are likely over. Instead, a variety of economic and political factors look to force prices up instead of down for new renewable power.
In a world where capital expenditure for solar projects goes up 5% to 10% — a range the analysts called “reasonably plausible” based on how much solar panels make up of the cost of a project — the Morgan Stanley analysts estimate that to maintain an industry standard investor return in the low-teens, power purchase agreements prices would have to rise to $52 to $57 per megawatt-hour, up from $49 to $54. “In a scenario where tariffs hold and IRA tax credits are eliminated,” the analysts write, those prices might go up as high as $73.
Those PPA prices could seriously degrade the advantage solar has over new natural gas generation, the Morgan Stanley analysts found, despite natural gas seeing its own cost pressures.
For one, there’s the shortage of gas turbines that’s causing higher equipment prices, bringing capital expenditures for a new gas plant up by around 75% in the last few years, the analysts said. Natural gas will also face its own hurdles from tariffs.
After penciling all that out, the Morgan Stanley analysts project that industry standard returns would require PPA prices of about $75 to $80 for natural gas.
You may notice how close that is to the pessimistic forecast on solar pricing.
“While current power market prices are not at levels that would support a new-build of natural gas turbines impacted by a tariff, we believe the co-location opportunity is still viable as a mid-to-high $70/MWh PPA price is still well within the willingness-to-pay for data center customers,” the Morgan Stanley analysts wrote. In other words, data centers that need a lot of power and don’t particularly care about carbon emissions or supporting renewables could end up procuring new gas.
That seems to track what we’re seeing out in the world. In January, Chevron and the investment firm Engine No. 1 announced a joint venture to deploy GE Vernova turbines on site to power data centers.
Natural gas pipeline giant Kinder Morgan’s executive chairman Richard Kinder told analysts Wednesday during the company’s quarterly earnings call that the company had seen a “nice uptick” in demand, “driven in part by the surge in AI and data centers.” The company’s natural gas pipelines president Sital Mody told analysts that Kinder Morgan is “actively pursuing opportunities to provide supply to ultimately feed these upcoming data centers,” and its chief executive Kimberley Dang called out Arizona as a potential market for gas-powered data centers.
So far this year, despite the threat of IRA repeal and protectionist tariffs hanging over the industry (not to mention “Liberation Day” tariffs on inputs like steel), prices paid for solar power have held steady, according to data from LevelTen, a power purchase agreement marketplace.
“Despite policy uncertainty, clean energy deals are moving forward at high volume,” Zach Starsia, LevelTen’s energy marketplace senior director, told me in an email. “There’s more certainty for projects expected to reach [commercial operation] in the next 12 to 16 months. It’s the longer-term, early-stage projects that are two to three years out where cost predictability becomes more difficult. Buyers are acting now to secure favorable pricing and access before tariffs and policy shifts begin to tighten market conditions,” Starsia said.
The company attributed the steady prices to the sector “finding itself on firmer footing following a long period of pandemic-era supply chain woes and an array of policy headwinds,” according to a LevelTen market analysis. While new and scheduled tariffs “are certainly a cause for concern,” the analysis said, the market is “well-attuned” to them due to the long history of solar tariffs since 2012.
“We expect upward pressure on PPA prices through 2025, particularly in technologies and regions exposed to tariffs and supply chain risk,” Starsia said. But he also wrote, perhaps optimistically, “The window is still open for prepared buyers to secure strong deals before price shifts fully take hold.”
Plus, what a Texas energy veteran thinks is behind the surprising turn against solar and wind.
I couldn’t have a single conversation with a developer this week without talking about Texas.
In case you’re unaware, the Texas Senate two days ago passed legislation — SB 819 — that would require all solar and wind projects over 10 megawatts to receive a certification from the state Public Utilities Commission — a process fossil fuel generation doesn’t have to go through. The bill, which one renewables group CEO testified would “kill” the industry in Texas, was approved by the legislature’s GOP majority despite a large number of landowners and ranchers testifying against the bill, an ongoing solar and wind boom in the state, and a need to quickly provide energy to Texas’ growing number of data centers and battery manufacturing facilities.
But that’s not all: On the same day, the Texas Senate Business and Commerce Committee approved a bill — SB 715 — that would target solar and wind by requiring generation facilities to be able to produce power whenever called upon by grid operators or otherwise pay a fine. Critics of the bill, which as written does not differentiate between new and existing facilities, say it could constrain the growth of Texas’ energy grid, not to mention impose penalties on solar and wind facilities that lack sufficient energy storage on site.
Renewable energy trades are in freak-out mode, mobilizing to try and scuttlebutt bills that could stifle what otherwise would be a perfect state for the sector. As we’ve previously explained, a big reason why Texas is so good for development is because, despite its ruby red nature, there is scant regulation letting towns or counties get in the way of energy development generally.
Seeking to best understand why anti-renewables bills are sailing through the Lone Star State, I phoned Doug Lewin, a Texas energy sector veteran, on the morning of the votes in the Texas Senate. Lewin said he believes that unlike other circumstances we’ve written about, like Oklahoma and Arizona, there really isn’t a groundswell of Texans against renewable energy development. This aligns with our data in Heatmap Pro, which shows 76% of counties being more welcoming than average to a utility-scale wind or solar farm. This is seen even in the author of the 24/7 power bill – state Senator Kevin Sparks – who represents the city of Midland, which is in a county that Heatmap Pro modeling indicates has a low risk of opposition. The Midland area is home to several wind and solar projects; German renewables giant RWE last month announced it would expand into the county to power oil and gas extraction with renewables.
But Lewin told me there’s another factor: He believes the legislation is largely motivated by legislators’ conservative voters suffering from a “misinformation” and “algorithm” problem. It’s their information diets, he believes, which are producing fears about the environmental impacts of developing renewable energy.
“He’s actively working against the interests of his district,” Lewin said of Sparks. “It’s algorithms. I don’t know what folks think is going on. People are just getting a lot of bad information.”
One prominent example came from a hailstorm during Hurricane Uri last year. Ice rocks described like golfballs rained down upon south-east Texas, striking, among other things, a utility-scale solar farm called Fighting Jays overseen by Copenhagen Infrastructure Partners. The incident went viral on Facebook and was seized upon by large conservative advocacy organizations including the Competitive Enterprise Institute.
What’s next? Honestly, the only thing standing between these bills and becoming law is a sliver of hope in the renewables world that the millions of dollars flowing into Texas House members’ districts via project investments and tax benefits outweigh the conservative cultural animus against their product. But if the past is prologue, things aren’t looking great.