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“You just got to follow the money”
The Lesser Prairie-Chicken is a bird made to dance.
I mean, look at it.
Lesser Prairie-Chicken: Plains Performerwww.youtube.com
When spring rolls around, the male’s head plumes and bright orange eyebrows stand at attention. The air sacs on its neck inflate and deflate. It stomps its feet up to 17 times per second, leaps into the air with a cackle, runs a few yards to a different spot, and stomps again, all while trying to fend off other males doing the same thing in an attempt to woo as many females as possible.
The Lesser Prairie-Chicken has been doing this dance for millennia. And congressional Republicans (plus Joe Manchin) are trying to kill it.
More precisely, House Republicans voted on Thursday to take the Lesser Prairie-Chicken and another animal, the Northern Long-Eared Bat, off the list of creatures protected under the Endangered Species Act. They’re following in the footsteps of the Senate, which voted 50-49 in May (guess which Democratic senator from West Virginia voted with the Republicans) that used the Congressional Review Act to overturn a decision by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service to list both animals as endangered last year.
According to the Center for Biological Diversity, it’s the first time in the history of the 30-year-old Congressional Review Act that the law’s been used to target individual species. The White House has already announced that President Biden intends to veto the bill as soon as it reaches his desk, but it likely won’t be the last time Republicans try such a move.
As for why Congress is going after these animals? “You just got to follow the money,” said Jon Hayes, executive director of Audubon Southwest (disclaimer: I used to work at Audubon magazine, which is editorially independent from the Audubon Society). “This is very much a political act not driven by science but by the interest of the oil and gas industry and agricultural interests.”
Both animals have the unenviable position of living in places humans want to exploit. The Northern Long-Eared Bat, which lives in 37 states and has seen populations drop by 97% because of a disease called white-nose syndrome, roosts in trees that loggers would like to cut down. The Lesser Prairie-Chicken lives in the southern Great Plains region, in an area that spans across Texas, New Mexico, Colorado, Oklahoma, and Kansas. They roam through ranches, along grazing areas, and past places that might make good farms, but the population that’s at the greatest risk lives right on the edge of the Permian Basin — also known as the most productive oil field in the world.
The Endangered Species Act, or ESA, is one of the federal government’s most powerful land-management tools. Its purview extends across public and private land alike; if a listed species lives on your land, you are obligated to take steps to protect it. Ranchers and grazers, Hayes told me, can coexist pretty easily alongside the chickens even if they’re protected under the ESA. Oil and gas, by its very nature, cannot.
Historically, oil and gas plants have been winning against the birds. The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS) first listed the bird as threatened in 2014, but that decision was vacated by a lawsuit in 2015, clearing the way for more ranches and oil fields alike. Conservationists hoped that a raft of voluntary measures could save the bird, but prairie-chicken habitats continued to get squeezed out and their population dropped to somewhere around 30,000, down from a pre-colonial high in the millions. That’s what prompted FWS to list the bird again last year.
“I see it as kind of the pinnacle of human hubris that the quarterly earnings of a corporation should be of more concern to us than a species that's literally been on this earth for over 2 million years, that we could cause to go extinct within less than a century,” Hayes told me.
Congressional Republicans argue that the voluntary measures are good enough, and that listing the bird is an “unnecessary and burdensome regulation that threatens the livelihoods of people in rural America.” According to the Associated Press, Representative Bruce Westerman of Arkansas called the ESA “an important but outdated part of U.S. history.”
“The question is always like, what role do they serve?” Hayes said. “And I always push back against that. The role of the chicken is to make more chickens. That's all we should expect it to do.”
The chicken is also an indicator of the health of the Great Plains writ large. Losing the bird may not destroy the entire ecosystem, but it would be a sign that the ecosystem could be past the point of recovery, Hayes said. The area where the chicken lives was once the site of the Dust Bowl, and it sits on top of the vast Ogallala aquifer — which is already being quickly depleted. Protecting the chicken also protects that habitat, from the grasses that sequester carbon to the drinking water that millions of people depend on.
“I’m not going to say that if you take the lesser prairie-chicken off that landscape, everything collapses,” Hayes said. “But we're losing species one by one. And at some point, we have to wake up and say, okay, that's enough. We have got to save this system.
Ironically, protecting the chicken could also block clean energy development — the birds tend to avoid tall structures that could play host to predators, and to a prairie-chicken a wind turbine mast looks suspiciously similar to a tree trunk. And even though Biden’s veto should protect its habitat, the prairie-chicken is going to feel the impacts of oil and gas through climate change. Its population tends to go through booms and busts, and both drought and extreme rain could hit prairie-chicken habitats with such intensity that the population might not be able to recover.
“Honestly, probably the most realistic scenario is we maintain the status quo, and maybe that’s not enough and we lose the bird in a few decades anyway. But even if we resign ourselves to losing this bird, there are more birds that are waiting in the wings to be the next chicken,” Hayes told me. “It's time to get serious about thinking about these ecosystems as natural infrastructure, and investing in them the same way we do with our roads and bridges and highways. Whether it's our Great Plains, our forests, our coasts, or are rivers, they have a value that we need to recognize. They aren’t going to keep maintaining us forever.”
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A new Data for Progress poll provided exclusively to Heatmap shows steep declines in support for the CEO and his business.
Nearly half of likely U.S. voters say that Elon Musk’s behavior has made them less likely to buy or lease a Tesla, a much higher figure than similar polls have found in the past, according to a new Data for Progress poll provided exclusively to Heatmap.
The new poll, which surveyed a national sample of voters over the President’s Day weekend, shows a deteriorating public relations situation for Musk, who has become one of the most powerful individuals in President Donald Trump’s new administration.
Exactly half of likely voters now hold an unfavorable view of Musk, a significant increase since Trump’s election. Democrats and independents are particularly sour on the Tesla CEO, with 81% of Democrats and 51% of independents reporting unfavorable views.
By comparison, 42% of likely voters — and 71% of Republicans — report a favorable opinion of Musk. The billionaire is now eight points underwater with Americans, with 39% of likely voters reporting “very” unfavorable views. Musk is much more unpopular than President Donald Trump, who is only about 1.5 points underwater in FiveThirtyEight’s national polling average.
Perhaps more ominous for Musk is that many Americans seem to be turning away from Tesla, the EV manufacturer he leads. About 45% of likely U.S. voters say that they are less likely to buy or lease a Tesla because of Musk, according to the new poll.
That rejection is concentrated among Democrats and independents, who make up an overwhelming share of EV buyers in America. Two-thirds of Democrats now say that Musk has made them less likely to buy a Tesla, with the vast majority of that group saying they are “much less likely” to do so. Half of independents report that Musk has turned them off Teslas. Some 21% of Democrats and 38% of independents say that Musk hasn’t affected their Tesla buying decision one way or the other.
Republicans, who account for a much smaller share of the EV market, do not seem to be rushing in to fill the gap. More than half of Republicans, or 55%, say that Musk has had no impact on their decision to buy or lease a Tesla. While 23% of Republicans say that Musk has made them more likely to buy a Tesla, roughly the same share — 22% — say that he has made them less likely.
Tesla is the world’s most valuable automaker, worth more than the next dozen or so largest automakers combined. Musk’s stake in the company makes up more than a third of his wealth, according to Bloomberg.
Thanks in part to its aging vehicle line-up, Tesla’s total sales fell last year for the first time ever, although it reported record deliveries in the fourth quarter. The United States was Tesla’s largest market by revenue in 2024.
Musk hasn’t always been such a potential drag on Tesla’s reach. In February 2023, soon after Musk’s purchase of Twitter, Heatmap asked U.S. adults whether the billionaire had made them more or less likely to buy or lease a Tesla. Only about 29% of Americans reported that Musk had made them less likely, while 26% said that he made them more likely.
When Heatmap asked the question again in November 2023, the results did not change. The same 29% of U.S. adults said that Musk had made them less likely to buy a Tesla.
By comparison, 45% of likely U.S. voters now say that Musk makes them less likely to get a Tesla, and only 17% say that he has made them more likely to do so. (Note that this new result isn’t perfectly comparable with the old surveys, because while the new poll surveyed likely voters , the 2023 surveys asked all U.S. adults.)
Musk’s popularity has also tumbled in that time. As recently as September, Musk was eight points above water in Data for Progress’ polling of likely U.S. voters.
Since then, Musk has become a power player in Republican politics and been made de facto leader of the Department of Government Efficiency. He has overseen thousands of layoffs and sought to win access to computer networks at many federal agencies, including the Department of Energy, the Social Security Administration, and the IRS, leading some longtime officials to resign in protest.
Today, he is eight points underwater — a 16-point drop in five months.
“We definitely have seen a decline, which I think has mirrored other pollsters out there who have been asking this question, especially post-election,” Data for Progress spokesperson Abby Springs, told me .
The new Data for Progress poll surveyed more than 1,200 likely voters around the country on Friday, February 14, and Saturday, February 15. Its results were weighted by demographics, geography, and recalled presidential vote. The margin of error was 3 percentage points.
On Washington walk-outs, Climeworks, and HSBC’s net-zero goals
Current conditions: Severe storms in South Africa spawned a tornado that damaged hundreds of homes • Snow is falling on parts of Kentucky and Tennessee still recovering from recent deadly floods • It is minus 39 degrees Fahrenheit today in Bismarck, North Dakota, which breaks a daily record set back in 1910.
Denise Cheung, Washington’s top federal prosecutor, resigned yesterday after refusing the Trump administratin’s instructions to open a grand jury investigation of climate grants issued by the Environmental Protection Agency during the Biden administration. Last week EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin announced that the agency would be seeking to revoke $20 billion worth of grants issued to nonprofits through the Greenhouse Gas Reduction Fund for climate mitigation and adaptation initiatives, suggesting that the distribution of this money was rushed and wasteful of taxpayer dollars. In her resignation letter, Cheung said she didn’t believe there was enough evidence to support grand jury subpoenas.
Failed battery maker Northvolt will sell its industrial battery unit to Scania, a Swedish truckmaker. The company launched in 2016 and became Europe’s biggest and best-funded battery startup. But mismanagement, production delays, overreliance on Chinese equipment, and other issues led to its collapse. It filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in November and its CEO resigned. As Reutersreported, Northvolt’s industrial battery business was “one of its few profitable units,” and Scania was a customer. A spokesperson said the acquisition “will provide access to a highly skilled and experienced team and a strong portfolio of battery systems … for industrial segments, such as construction and mining, complementing Scania's current customer offering.”
TikTok is partnering with Climeworks to remove 5,100 tons of carbon dioxide from the air through 2030, the companies announced today. The short-video platform’s head of sustainability, Ian Gill, said the company had considered several carbon removal providers, but that “Climeworks provided a solution that meets our highest standards and aligns perfectly with our sustainability strategy as we work toward carbon neutrality by 2030.” The swiss carbon capture startup will rely on direct air capture technology, biochar, and reforestation for the removal. In a statement, Climeworks also announced a smaller partnership with a UK-based distillery, and said the deals “highlight the growing demand for carbon removal solutions across different industries.”
HSBC, Europe’s biggest bank, is abandoning its 2030 net-zero goal and pushing it back by 20 years. The 2030 target was for the bank’s own operations, travel, and supply chain, which, as The Guardiannoted, is “arguably a much easier goal than cutting the emissions of its loan portfolio and client base.” But in its annual report, HSBC said it’s been harder than expected to decarbonize supply chains, forcing it to reconsider. Back in October the bank removed its chief sustainability officer role from the executive board, which sparked concerns that it would walk back on its climate commitments. It’s also reviewing emissions targets linked to loans, and considering weakening the environmental goals in its CEO’s pay package.
A group of 27 research teams has been given £81 million (about $102 million) to look for signs of two key climate change tipping points and create an “early warning system” for the world. The tipping points in focus are the collapse of the Greenland ice sheet, and the collapse of north Atlantic ocean currents. The program, funded by the UK’s Advanced Research and Invention Agency, will last for five years. Researchers will use a variety of monitoring and measuring methods, from seismic instruments to artificial intelligence. “The fantastic range of teams tackling this challenge from different angles, yet working together in a coordinated fashion, makes this program a unique opportunity,” said Dr. Reinhard Schiemann, a climate scientist at the University of Reading.
In 2024, China alone invested almost as much in clean energy technologies as the entire world did in fossil fuels.
Editor’s note: This story has been updated to correct the name of the person serving as EPA administrator.
Rob and Jesse get real on energy prices with PowerLines’ Charles Hua.
The most important energy regulators in the United States aren’t all in the federal government. Each state has its own public utility commission, a set of elected or appointed officials who regulate local power companies. This set of 200 individuals wield an enormous amount of power — they oversee 1% of U.S. GDP — but they’re often outmatched by local utility lobbyists and overlooked in discussions from climate advocates.
Charles Hua wants to change that. He is the founder and executive director of PowerLines, a new nonprofit engaging with America’s public utility commissions about how to deliver economic growth while keeping electricity rates — and greenhouse gas emissions — low. Charles previously advised the U.S. Department of Energy on developing its grid modernization strategy and analyzed energy policy for the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory.
On this week’s episode of Shift Key, Rob and Jesse talk to Charles about why PUCs matter, why they might be a rare spot for progress over the next four years, and why (and how) normal people should talk to their local public utility commissioner. Shift Key is hosted by Jesse Jenkins, a professor of energy systems engineering at Princeton University, and Robinson Meyer, Heatmap’s executive editor.
Subscribe to “Shift Key” and find this episode on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Amazon, or wherever you get your podcasts.
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Here is an excerpt from our conversation:
Robinson Meyer: I want to pivot a bit and ask something that I think Jesse and I have talked about, something that you and I have talked about, Charles, is that the PUCs are going to be very important during the second Trump administration, and there’s a lot of possibilities, or there’s some possibilities for progress during the Trump administration, but there’s also some risks. So let’s start here: As you survey the state utility landscape, what are you worried about over the next four years or so? What should people be paying attention to at the PUC level?
Charle Hua: I think everything that we’re hearing around AI data centers, load growth, those are decisions that ultimately state public utility commissioners are going to make. And that’s because utilities are significantly revising their load forecasts.
Just take Georgia Power — which I know you talked about last episode at the end — which, in 2022, just two years ago, their projected load forecast for the end of the decade was about 400 megawatts. And then a year later, they increased that to 6,600 megawatts. So that’s a near 17x increase. And if you look at what happens with the 2023 Georgia Power IRP, I think the regulators were caught flat footed about just how much load would actually materialize from the data centers and what the impact on customer bills would be.
Meyer:And what’s an IRP? Can you just give us ...
Hua: Yes, sorry. So, integrated resource plan. So that’s the process by which utilities spell out how they’re proposing to make investments over a long term planning horizon, generally anywhere from 15 to 30 years. And if we look at, again, last year’s integrated resource plan in Georgia, there was significant proposed new fossil fuel infrastructure that was ultimately fully approved by the public service commission.
And there’s real questions about how consumer interests are or aren’t protected with decisions like that — in part because, if we look at what’s actually driving things like rising utility bills, which is a huge problem. I mean, one in three Americans can’t pay their utility bills, which have increased 20% over the last two years, two to three years. One of the biggest drivers of that is volatile gas prices that are exposed to international markets. And there’s real concern that if states are doubling down on gas investments and customers shoulder 100% of the risk of that gas price volatility that customers’ bills will only continue to grow.
And I think what’s going on in Georgia, for instance, is a harbinger of what’s to come nationally. In many ways, it’s the epitome of the U.S. clean energy transition, where there’s both a lot of clean energy investment that’s happening with all of the new growth in manufacturing facilities in Georgia, but if you actually peel beneath the layers and you see what’s going on internal to the state as it relates to its electricity mix, there’s a lot to be concerned about.
And the question is, are we going to have public utility commissions and regulatory bodies that can adequately protect the public interest in making these decisions going forward? And I think that’s the million dollar question.
This episode of Shift Key is sponsored by …
Download Heatmap Labs and Hydrostor’s free report to discover the crucial role of long duration energy storage in ensuring a reliable, clean future and stable grid. Learn more about Hydrostor here.
Music for Shift Key is by Adam Kromelow.