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What Angelenos can learn from the Maui Wildfire Exposure health survey.

After a week and a half of unimaginable destruction, Los Angeles is at last beginning to look toward its recovery from the Palisades and Eaton fires. Traversing that stage will take years, not only because of the significant economic and political implications of the fires, but also because of what they will mean for the health and well-being of the thousands of residents who live in or near the burn zones.
Los Angeles isn’t navigating the crisis alone, though. In the wake of the deadly 2023 Maui wildfire, researchers at the University of Hawaii launched the Maui Wildfire Exposure Study, a multi-year effort to track the disaster’s physical and mental health impacts on residents. Though the demographics of West Maui differ greatly from those of Pacific Palisades or Altadena — two of the most affluent zip codes in the country — California public officials, medical professionals, and wildfire survivors can still learn from the ongoing work of the MauiWES.
To that end, I spoke yesterday with Ruben Juarez, one of the study’s lead researchers. Our conversation has been edited and condensed for clarity.
What is the Maui Wildfire Exposure Study?
The Maui Wildfire Exposure Study follows a comprehensive cohort of people affected by the 2023 fires. We collected data six months after the fire, and typically, we’re looking for the long-term effects. For 60% of the individuals who came to the study, it was their first health check since the fires.
It is a pretty interesting population: They’re underserved and typically lack access to health care. We found three main trends: The first was mental and physical health issues. Access to care was a big issue in Hawaii, and I’m hoping that’s not going to be the case in California, but it definitely was here. Housing, job, and food insecurity were other big issues, as were the social impacts.
What have you learned about the mental and physical health of people exposed to the Maui wildfires?
Pre-wildfire we knew that the rate of depression symptoms in the Maui population was about 30%. Post-wildfire, we’re seeing more like 52%, so more than one in two participants in the study were showing depression symptoms. Low self-esteem was another issue. Something that was really worrisome was suicidal ideation: Pre-wildfire, it was less than 1%; post-wildfire, at least for the people in the cohort, it was about 4% of the population. That’s more than a four-time increase.
The second issue is physical health: Nearly half of the participants reported worse health since the fires. We saw respiratory issues, such as coughing, wheezing, difficulty breathing, and also skin and eye irritation, fatigue, and weakness. We’re seeing that about 74% of the participants are facing a heightened risk of cardiovascular disease. We also performed a lung check using spirometry and oscillometry breathing. Based on the spirometry measure, 60% of participants may have poor lung health, and 40% may have mild to severe lung obstruction. We believe this is associated with the exposure to ash and the personal protective equipment individuals wore when they returned to the fire site.
We’ve written a lot about the dangers of wildfire smoke at Heatmap, but I think people are less aware of the risks of wildfire ash. Could you say more?
It’s really toxic. People need to take care of themselves. There are the harmful substances you’d expect in ash: lead, arsenic, asbestos — those are poisons.
Why was our population in Lahaina affected by this? Because they went back to the burned homes and did not wear any PPE. To me, that was crazy. The county said that wearing PPE was a voluntary decision, and that was a mistake. And PPE is not just a mask: you really need eye protection, gloves, footwear, and long clothing, because the ash is really toxic.
Even in small amounts, the poisons in ash can harm the lungs and the heart, and there are long-term effects, including cancer, which is one of the things we’re trying to prevent. In the case of Hawaii, for the initial batch of 767 individuals in the study, we did a heavy metal analysis — a comprehensive panel of 32 of the most expected heavy metals. We already knew that five of the most common heavy metals were found in ash present in Hawaii: arsenic, lead, antimony, copper, and cobalt. We learned that 20% of participants affected by the fires in our cohort were showing an elevated level of at least one of these heavy metals, which is not something that you would expect. We don’t want these things in our bodies at any level. People must know that these things are harmful and they need to take care of their health.
And that’s all just from people returning to their homes and sifting through the ash? Or can ash blow into an area that didn’t burn and affect people that way, as well?
Many participants were uneducated about the harmful effects ash has, especially when it has contact with your skin. But you should also avoid breathing or swallowing soot and ash at any cost. The effects were seen in individuals who had direct contact at a site or were indirectly exposed through smoke or blowing winds — but the majority was direct contact.
That’s so scary.
Not everything was bad news. We found some exciting ways to potentially address some of these issues. For instance, resiliency was at the top of the minds of many participants in the study: “How can I be resilient? How can I survive this catastrophe?”
We also found that lower-income individuals trust and use community organizations more than government services, like federal, state, and county agencies. This information could potentially help us intervene, especially when considering underserved populations like immigrant populations. They just don’t trust the government. Addressing issues through community organizations on the ground was extremely helpful because it allowed people to access the services they needed.
Another thing that we noticed that was super helpful was that people who maintain strong relationships with family and friends experience better health outcomes. Social isolation after a wildfire was really bad, especially for mental health problems. Individuals who are more connected with their friends, family, or are doing something in their community volunteering tend to have better health outcomes, particularly in terms of depression.
How close do you need to have been to a wildfire to experience these effects?
Individuals whose homes were on the perimeter of the burn area experienced more physical symptoms, worse quality of life, and worse mental health. But that doesn’t mean that if your house doesn’t burn, you will not experience any of the symptoms. Even if you didn’t go to a contaminated site, there was all the smoke over the city, and you’re exposed to that. Individuals who are not directly affected can be indirectly affected — at a lower rate, of course, as you’d expect.
Many of the mental health impacts you described were related to things like housing, job, or food insecurity, as well as the lack of access to healthcare resources following a fire. Would you expect mental health impacts to not be as bad in L.A., since it was a more affluent area that burned?
Yes. In fact, coincidentally, one of our scientific advisory board members is a resident of L.A., and he’s been saying that he doesn’t expect the health effects to be as bad in L.A. as they were in Maui because the shortage of doctors is not as big. Also, the type of demographic that is being affected is more affluent.
Having said that, in Hawaii, we had the advantage of winds that blew smoke and soot away. I was reading reports that in L.A., there were no winds, and the smoke was just staying there. In that case, the effects in terms of pulmonary health won’t just be the people directly affected, but the whole city.
What would you want emergency managers and medical professionals in Los Angeles to know about your study as they address the impacts of these fires?
First, we must emphasize to people that this is not a forest fire; houses are burning, full of toxic substances. People need to know that if they return to the burn zone, they need to take care of their health and ensure they are wearing PPE. We need to conduct many communication campaigns around this.
The second thing is, don’t underestimate the power of community and community organizations, especially in L.A., where there are many immigrant populations. Community organizations should be used to provide information because people don’t trust the government or FEMA officials.
The third thing I would emphasize is that after a disaster, when people struggle with housing, job, and food insecurity, their health becomes a lower priority. This is understandable, but unfortunately, neglecting your health at this time can worsen the long-term effects. It’s really important that we emphasize to individuals that even if you don’t have a house or a job right now, you need to take care of your health.
An example of this is in the aftermath of 9/11; years later, more lives have been lost due to exposure to environmental hazards than the disaster itself. If we don’t intervene early on, things can get really bad. That’s what we are trying to do: prevent those long-term effects from happening.
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Current conditions: The Pacific has officially entered El Niño, and the warmer-than-average weather pattern is expected to be stronger than usual • Heavy rains are deluging China’s Hunan and Guangxi provinces • While Puerto Ricans living in New York just threw the diaspora’s annual parade, thousands of Boricuas living on the island are enduring days of water shortages so severe the U.S. territory’s governor activated the National Guard.
In a pair of Sunday evening posts on Truth Social, President Donald Trump said a “great deal” with Iran to end the conflict and reopen the Strait of Hormuz without any tolls was “now complete.” As part of the truce, Trump said he would “authorize the immediate removal of the United States Naval blockade” at the mouth of the Persian Gulf. The waterway through which up to a quarter of the global seaborne oil trade travels will remain closed until the deal is signed on Friday, Trump said, “for purposes of mine removal,” meaning Iran will collect the explosives its military planted around the strait to prevent vessels from passing. “Ships of the World, start your engines,” Trump wrote. “Let the oil flow!”
My colleague Emily Pontecorvo had a big scoop on Friday: The Trump administration is no longer defending the president’s moratorium on permitting wind projects. The Department of Justice filed a motion last week to dismiss its appeal of a federal court’s December decision vacating the order to halt wind energy approvals. Ending the White House’s all-of-government assault on wind and solar projects has been a key demand from Democrats seeking compromise for a permitting reform package. Experts say the procedural move in this case is a bullish sign for the various bills before Congress now. “The door to federal permitting is now unlocked again and each developer will be able to make the case for permitting their individual project based on the facts and the law,” Kit Kennedy, the managing director for power, climate, and energy at the Natural Resources Defense Council, told Emily.
The thaw in the permitting freeze comes as the SunZia Wind Project, the largest wind farm in the United States, is preparing to begin commercial operations in the coming days. The development in New Mexico, which has a total net summer generating capacity of 3,650 megawatts, is made up of 916 turbines.

Trump wants to temporarily suspend the federal tax on gasoline to ease surging fuel prices caused by the war with Iran. His proposal would waive the tax of $0.184 per gallon, but doing so requires an act of Congress. According to a new analysis from the Budget Lab at Yale University shared exclusively with Heatmap, lifting the levy would pay Americans back about $37 of the roughly $250 in higher gasoline costs paid over the course of three months. While richer households would spend a smaller share of total income on fuel, they would accrue more per-dollar benefits than lower-income Americans. Likewise, the gas tax holiday would afford more rewards to heavy drivers.
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It started out as a British nonprofit devoted to documenting, standardizing, and tracking how much carbon dioxide various partner organizations produce. Dubbed the Carbon Disclosure Project, the group, founded in 2000, had emerged as one of the central authorities on an issue increasingly baked into financial reporting rules. Now known only by its acronym, CDP said last week it would split its organization in two, segmenting a charitable, science-focused nonprofit called the CDP Foundation from a new commercial entity designed to deliver environmental data and disclosure services for a fee. The London private equity giant Permira will back the for-profit CDP’s launch. “For 25 years, CDP has been at the forefront of environmental disclosure, transforming it from the sidelines to the centre of decision-making,” the organization said in a statement. “To meet the scale and speed of today’s environmental challenges and market expectations, CDP is sharpening its focus, enabling stronger science-led disclosure and greater investment in technology to simplify the disclosure experience and deliver more decision-useful insights.”
Tennessee Senator Marsha Blackburn, a key GOP tech policy reform voice in the Senate running for governor in her home state, just came out against a data center next to Nashville Zoo. “Tennessee should be thoughtful and considerate when deciding where data centers are located. The proposed site near the Nashville Zoo is neither,” she wrote in a post on X. “Let’s revisit this placement.” It’s yet another sign that the backlash against data centers is, as Heatmap’s Jael Holzman wrote, splintering the right.
The geothermal industry is gearing up for a next-generation boom. Until Fervo Energy’s big stock market debut last month, the big publicly-traded player in the business was Ormat Technologies, a conventional geothermal giant that both builds power stations and manufactures the parts needed for plants. Now, at the industry’s big trade show in Calgary this week, Ormat is unveiling a 100-megawatt power generation system designed for unconventional wells like those Fervo or Ormat’s partner Sage Geosystems are drilling. It’s a sign, Think GeoEnergy reported, that Ormat is seeking “to accelerate the commercial deployment of next-generation geothermal projects.”
Welcoming the world’s first clean energy trillionaire.
SpaceX is now a public company. The rocket and satellite maker’s shares began trading this morning, surging 19% from their initial price of $135 to more than $160 at the market close. With the sale, Elon Musk became the world’s first trillionaire; his wealth has roughly tripled since President Donald Trump won re-election in 2024.
I’ll let other observers judge the IPO’s success, the firm’s long-term prospects, and the meaning of a world where we now have trillionaires. So I will make a few other points:
I remain agog at Musk’s ability to raise enormous amounts of cash from public equity markets to do hardware and manufacturing development. To some degree, the idea of a venture-backed firm doing hardware engineering — or what some now call “deep tech” — is Musk’s most impressive creation. The SpaceX IPO raised $75 billion today. That money will now go in part to scaling and commercializing rockets, factory equipment, and allegedly, at some point in the future, orbiting data centers.
Let’s not forget how crucial the U.S. government is to Musk’s story. In the world of climate, energy and manufacturing, we wail about financing’s “missing middle,” the elusive type of investment that can help scale and deploy early-stage technologies by bridging the gap between expensive venture capital and cheap bank lending. But this is at least partially a solved problem. SpaceX and Tesla survived the valley of death with government help: The Energy Department’s Loan Programs Office (which the Trump administration has dubbed the Office of Energy Dominance Financing) extended a $465 million loan to Tesla to build its Fremont, California, factory in 2010; NASA’s 2008 commercial resupply contract gave SpaceX guaranteed offtake for its Falcon rocket. Neither firm would likely have survived without those key injections of financial certainty.
To some degree, Musk has already made his mark on the American economy by creating a new culture of manufacturing engineering. I cannot recommend enough my colleagues Matthew Zeitlin and Emily Pontecorvo’s report on the new cadre of climate tech founders who came up at SpaceX and Tesla. As it happens, I spent Wednesday touring a clean energy factory founded by a Tesla alumnus, and I was struck by how many signs of Musk’s bottlenecks-focused management approach were visible, even at a company seemingly run more humanely than Musk’s famously “hardcore” firms.
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To that point, Emily and Matt asked a number of clean tech executives who worked for SpaceX or Tesla what they learned from the experience. Their responses are fascinating; you can read them in full here. These comments from Justin Lopas, the COO of Base Power, stuck out — he was asked the “one thing” he learned from working for Musk:
You can get way more done in a day and can move way faster than you think. This does not mean necessarily more hours (although solving any hard problem requires that too), but instead being thoughtful about sequencing work, not accepting delays from suppliers or external counterparties without solid rationale, parallel pathing, accelerating critical learnings to early in the project, etc
To step back, one irony of Elon Musk’s situation — at least to me — is that relatively few American politicians are eager to talk about what has actually driven his wealth. I’m not just talking about his firms’ reliance on public financing, although that counts too. I mean Tesla itself. Although Musk now describes that business as a “robotics company,” it is and remains an electric vehicle and battery manufacturer. (It recently began high-volume production of the Tesla Semi, a potentially game-changing long-haul electric truck.) After today, Musk’s Tesla stake makes up less than half of his wealth, but, still, he would not be a trillionaire without EVs, solar panels, and batteries.
But that is not a particularly convenient fact. That Musk is a clean energy trillionaire remains unpalatable to Republicans, who would prefer to cast EVs as an inferior substitute made to satisfy government mandates. And Musk’s antisemitism, far-right politics, and gleeful destruction of the U.S. Agency for International Development — not to mention Tesla’s violation of labor law — have obviously destroyed his reputation among Democrats.
Yet his elevation to a 13-digit net worth nonetheless marks a new era in American capitalism. The richest Americans in history have almost always been oilmen: John D. Rockefeller became the country’s first billionaire by creating the Standard Oil trust; when he died in 1937, his net worth of $1.4 billion represented 1% to 2% of the country’s gross domestic product. In the 1960s, J. Paul Getty became the country’s richest person by negotiating Saudi and Kuwaiti oil concessions. Yet Musk became a billionaire not by harnessing commodities, but through his mastery of software, hardware, and clean energy.
Musk’s fortune now exceeds 3% of U.S. GDP. He is the richest American in history, judged as a share of national production. And it was electricity, lithium, and modern factory production — and, if you wish, the kerosene and methane that fuel SpaceX’s rockets — that got him there. As the science fiction writer William Gibson almost said, the future is already here; it’s just not evenly distributed in your retirement portfolio yet.
Many thanks for reading, and have a wonderful weekend.
Plus SAF, another SPAC, and more of the week’s biggest money moves.
With SpaceX’s historic IPO dominating headlines this week, Heatmap turned its attention to the impact Elon Musk’s protégés have had on the climate tech landscape. Right after we published the story, an underwater geothermal startup founded and staffed by SpaceX alumni announced a sizable Series A, with its founder telling TechCrunch that his “experience at a very hardcore company like SpaceX” helped shape his approach to this new endeavor.
In other news, one of the biggest players in the sustainable aviation space, Twelve, opened its first commercial fuels plant and is preparing to begin supplying low-carbon jet fuel to Alaska Airlines later this month. Meanwhile, the battery sector saw two SPAC announcements: In a bid for survival, Factorial Energy officially went public this week through a SPAC merger, while ZincFive announced plans to do the same later this year. And finally there was some positive news for Germany’s heat pump market, as the startup Galvany raised fresh funding to simplify the end-to-end process of buying, installing, and operating a heat pump.
Drawing from an increasingly familiar playbook for Musk alumni, Endurance Energy founder and former SpaceX engineer Andrew Redd applied the lessons he learned from the rocket company’s notoriously “hardcore” culture and rapid pace of development to something completely different. Now that he’s pivoted away from rocket tech, Redd wants to harness geothermal energy from underwater volcanic activity, and his startup just raised a $54 million Series A to make it happen While a growing crop of geothermal startups including Fervo and Zanskar are focused on tapping into the heat beneath our feet, no other company in the sector has sought to develop the resource beneath the ocean floor.
There are good reasons for that, of course. Offshore infrastructure is notoriously difficult and expensive to build, maintain, and repair, and saltwater is corrosive. But if Endurance can crack the code, Redd told TechCrunch he thinks the company could unlock about 6 terawatts of geothermal energy in the coming decade.
Investors seem to be convinced: Peter Thiel’s Founders Fund led the startup’s latest funding roundSeries A, its second capital raise since launching less than two years ago. Other backers include First Round Capital, Felicis Ventures, and Voyager Ventures. EnduranceThe startup is initially targeting remote islands, where electricity costs are often far higher than on the mainland. It’s already launched an initial pilot off the coast of Tonga, which still gets about 80% of its electricity from imported diesel.
Twelve, one of the best capitalized sustainable aviation fuel startups, opened its first e-fuel facility in Washington State this week. The demo plant has officially started production, and the company’s strategic partner and investor, Alaska Airlines, expects to begin using it on commercial flights as soon as this month. The plant’s launch comes roughly two years later than originally planned, a delay that’s hardly unusual for first-of-a-kind industrial projects like this. Last September, Twelve raised $645 million to complete buildout of the facility, as well as to jumpstart development of future plants, which it says will be orders of magnitude larger.
The company’s process begins with renewable-powered electrolysis. Using a proprietary catalyst, Twelve’s electrolyzer splits apart CO2 captured from a nearby ethanol plant at a lower temperature than conventional approaches, making it better suited to running on renewable energy. The company combines the resulting carbon monoxide with hydrogen to create a syngas, which gets refined into sustainable jet fuel. Airlines can blend the resulting product with conventional jet fuel (the Federal Aviation Administration allows a maximum 50% blend) to create a drop-in replacement that requires no engine modifications.
To cover the cost premium of SAF, Twelve and Alaska partnered with Microsoft. The tech giant is buying SAF certificates — essentially carbon credits — from the project to help offset Scope 3 emissions associated with employee travel. “We are seeing strong demand from the corporate offtake side, not only for employee travel, but also for freight and logistics,” Twelve’s CEO, Nicholas Flanders, told me. “Everything from pharmaceuticals to data centers use a lot of air travel.” There are also some policy tailwinds — the European Union now has a sustainable fuels mandate that requires the use of synthetic e-fuels like Twelve’s beginning in 2030.
The plant also comes online at a moment of heightened volatility in the jet fuel market. As my colleague Alexander C. Kaufman noted in Wednesday’s morning newsletter, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has led to soaring fuel prices, prompting domestic refiners to ramp production to record highs. By contrast, Flanders argues that SAF offers customers greater price certainty via long-term offtake agreements. “You can fix the cost of our key inputs like electricity and CO2 and so that actually makes it a more attractive project from a project financing perspective,” he explained.
SPACs are back. But this week, it’s not just another pre-revenue nuclear company that’s looking to get to market as quickly as possible. Solid-state battery startup Factorial Energy, which has yet to develop a commercial product, has merged with the blank check company Cartesian Growth Corporation III, netting it $100 billion at a $1.3 billion valuation.
The company was upfront about needing the SPAC to stay afloat after racking up losses since its founding in 2013. Factorial’s SEC filing states that prior to this new capital, “its liquidity wasn’t sufficient to fund twelve months of operations.” Yet it does have real traction in the industry — Mercedes-Benz, Stellantis, Hyundai, and Kia have all made strategic investments, looking to use Factorial’s tech in their electric vehicles to achieve higher energy density, longer range, and faster charging.
Solid state batteries typically use a solid electrolyte in place of the flammable liquid electrolytes found in conventional lithium-ion cells, but Factorial is starting with more of a hybrid approach. Its initial design relies on a “quasi-solid” gel-like electrolyte, which allows it to use an energy dense lithium metal anode while preventing the needle-like dendrite growth that predisposes solid-state batteries to short circuit. Factorial is manufacturing these cells at a pilot plant in Massachusetts, while working on a prototype with a fully solid electrolyte that could offer even greater performance gains.
Factorial isn’t the only battery company with SPAC news this week. ZincFive, a nickel-zinc battery producer, also announced plans to go public via SPAC in a deal expected to close in the second half of this year. Unlike Factorial, however, ZincFive is already making money, selling its batteries to hyperscalers and other data center operators as a backup power solution to bridge the gap in between when the power goes out and when the backup generator turns on. As the company’s CEO Tod Higinbotham told Bloomberg, “We have the backlog. We have the capacity. We have the demand. We really need capital.”
Navigating the maze of consumer clean energy incentives and coordinating home energy upgrades is hardly a U.S.-specific challenge. Just a few years ago, heat pump sales in Germany were falling precipitously despite generous subsidies and proven tech. One startup, Galvany, theorized the problem wasn’t the heat pumps themselves, but rather the unnecessary complexity of the surrounding ecosystem. Now it’s raised roughly $11.5 million to help streamline the process of getting heat pumps into consumers’ homes and apartments.
“In Germany, heat pumps do not fail because of the technology, but because of the gap between subsidy bureaucracy, installation capacity, and economic viability for the end customer,” the company’s CEO, Raik Belka, said in a press release. This is exactly the gap we are closing.” The approach is already paying off — Galvany has installed more than 2,500 heat pumps to date and became profitable last year after increasing its revenue sevenfold.
The startup produces its heat pump in partnership with Panasonic, but its real innovation lies in the way it streamlines sales, procurement, installation, and ongoing heat pump operations into a single platform. Potential customers enter their building data online and, after a feasibility check, get a quick quote that factors in subsidies. They can then purchase a standardized kit that’s simple for installers to assemble. Once operational, the heat pump’s energy management system, which launches this summer, will automatically adjust heating loads based on the cost of electricity, saving customers money without them having to actively manage the system.