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We’re now a quarter of the way through the 21st century, and it’s indisputable that climate is one of the most important stories of our time. That’s our philosophy here at Heatmap, but just about everything around us illustrates it, too — from government policy and tech to movies and reality TV.
And of course — or maybe, especially — books.
It’s been about 17 years since the term “cli-fi” (or “climate fiction”) was first coined, and in the meantime, books that touch on climate themes in both fiction and nonfiction have taken off like the Keeling Curve. In 2025, we’ll be reading novels that imagine life in San Francisco after years of deluge and investigative reports into subjects such as how companies have gotten away with dumping forever chemicals into the environment for so long. There will be new natural histories to dive into — on the desert, forests, prairies, and even on the chemical compound CO2 — as well as new frames of thinking about climate change and how we approach its solutions.
Because so many 2025 books will touch on climate themes, I’ve set aside a section of honorable mentions at the end of this list that are also worth checking out. The division doesn’t indicate quality; I chose the primary 18 based on my subjective excitement and to showcase different genres, publishers, and authors. It might be in the appendix that you find a book on the topic you’re personally most excited about (Arctic exploration? Solar geoengineering? Florida-set family dramas?) for next year.
Finally, if you want to see all these books in one place or judge them by their (excellent) covers, you can browse our curated list on Bookshop here.
The U.S. government’s Fifth National Climate Assessment section on the Southwest reads like an apocalyptic horror story: “Heat-related mortality,” “increased wildfire risks,” and “longer and more severe droughts” all make it into the opening few paragraphs. The truth is that the hottest and driest region of the United States is home to 60 million people, many of whom will have to adapt to a more extreme future in the coming years. In New Mexico-born journalist Kyle Paoletta’s debut book, American Oasis, he traces the allure of places like Albuquerque, Phoenix, El Paso, and Las Vegas back to the Athapaskan migration from the sub-Arctic around 1100 BCE and through the heydays of Arizona Highways, a magazine from the 1950s, while also charting what lies ahead for those who are drawn to making the desert, however impossibly, their home. Preorder it here.
Speaking of the American desert, on the fiction side of things this winter comes Madeleine Watts’ latest novel, Elegy, Southwest. Watts made a name for herself as a writer of cli-fi after the release of her 2021 novel, The Inland Sea, set against the backdrop of Australia’s fires and floods, and she returns this year with a road trip novel that follows Eloise, a doctoral student studying the Colorado River and climate change. As part of her research, Eloise flies to Las Vegas for a road trip through the Southwest with her husband, Lewis, to whom the novel is addressed. Along the way, Eloise begins to believe she’s pregnant, while Lewis struggles with the fresh grief of losing his mother. As Watts told an interviewer of her process for The Inland Sea, “I wanted to write … about what it’s like to live in the experience of a changing climate that is not always a tangible part of your day-to-day but that’s already there – it’s in the air all around you.” Expect a similar treatment this go-round. Preorder it here.
Eric Puchner’s new novel, Dream State, is the story of two marriages set over 50 years. With the book opening in 2004, that naturally requires some speculation about the future — in this case, the future of “a rapidly warming Montana.” As The Indypendent writes in an early review, “The looming climate crisis — declining snowfall, depleted wildlife, raging seasonal wildfires, and abnormally warm temperatures — is writ large in the book, forming a blistering backdrop, highlighting newfound restrictions on what both residents and short-term visitors can now see and do in the area.” The novel has earned praise from Pulitzer Prize-winner Adam Johnson, who called it “a masterpiece,” as well as author Lynn Steger Strong, who has a climate book of her own on the list below. Preorder it here.
Four years ago, Argentinean author Agustina Bazterrica burst onto Americans’ radars with the English-language translation of her 2017 novel Tender Is the Flesh, a book that imagines a future in which animals have become toxic to humans, leading us to resort to industrialized cannibalism. (Critics have described it, vividly, as “splatterpunk.”) This year, Bazterrica turns her attention from factory farming to the climate catastrophe, telling the story of a member of a “Sacred Sisterhood” cloistered in a mysterious convent who is prompted to reflect on her life outside its walls when a new acolyte arrives. Don’t expect Bazterrica to soften her critiques of capitalism here, though it’s not all doom and gloom; early readers have said The Unworthy “ends on a light note of hope.” Preorder it here.
Charlotte McConaghy’s follow-up novel to her critically acclaimed 2020 debut, Migrations, is set on a fictional research island, Shearwater, located between Australia and Antarctica. Dominic Salt, the caretaker of the island’s seed vault, has called the refuge home for the past eight years — ever since fleeing Australia’s accelerating natural disasters, hoping to find a safer place to raise his three children. But with rising sea levels now threatening the island, Dominic and his family have just seven weeks left before they plan to move on. Just before their departure, Dominic’s oldest daughter discovers a woman who has shipwrecked on shore, and the tension — and mystery — starts to grow. Wild Dark Shore has earned a starred review from Kirkus, which calls it a “terrific thriller.” Preorder it here.
Climatologist, World Weather Attribution co-founder, and 2024 Trailblazing Women in Climate laureate Friederike Otto does not mince words about who is most impacted by extreme weather — and who needs to be involved in the solutions. “If we leave the issue of climate change to white men, it’ll continue to be treated as a physical problem with technological solutions,” she has said, adding, “The more diverse the people working on it, the closer we get to implementing these solutions and making progress on climate change.” Her new book, Climate Injustice, elaborates on her thesis further, using the stories of real people in the Global South to illustrate how exploitation, sexism, and colonialism have created a crisis with unequal impacts. Preorder it here.
Everyone who works in the climate space is familiar with the question posed in the title of this book. Entomologist Douglas W. Tallamy is one of the leading proponents of the native gardens movement, and in How Can I Help?, he answers a query implied in his own earlier book, 2009’s Bringing Nature Home: that “unless we restore native plants to our suburban ecosystems, the future of biodiversity in the United States is dim.” How Can I Help? is structured to address some of the most common questions Tallamy encounters during his lectures about how individuals can become directors of their own miniature national parks at home. Despite the daunting challenge of biodiversity loss, Tallamy offers actionable ideas for helping the planet, with conservation beginning in your backyard. Preorder it here.
If I had to make one prediction for 2025, it’d be that we will hear a lot more about per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances — that is, the “forever chemicals” commonly known as PFAS. The chemicals are found in everything from our dental floss to our clothes, but perhaps most disturbingly, they’re also found in our drinking water. In Poisoning the Well, The Hill staff writers Sharon Udasin and Rachel Frazin follow how PFAS got into our environment in the first place — a story of corporate greed and cover-ups that will be familiar to anyone aware of the fossil fuel playbook. Preorder it here.
Journalist Malcolm Harris’ last book was an “encyclopedic,” 700-page history of the city of Palo Alto, which became a fixture of best-of-the-year lists after it came out last February. Hot on its heels is Harris’ follow-up, What’s Left (which slow readers will be relieved to hear is less of a time commitment, at 320 pages). Harris’ intention with his new work is to explore “our remaining options for saving the world,” all of which involve varying degrees of collective action but which escalate from “progressive” to “socialist” to “revolutionary.” It’s one that you can be sure will have people talking. Preorder it here.
Alan Weisman’s hugely successful 2007 book, The World Without Us, speculated about humanity’s legacy if we suddenly disappeared. (Slate named it in 2019 as one of the 50 best nonfiction books in the past quarter-century.) Now, Weisman turns his attention to helping us stick around. “I am working on a book with kind of a vast topic, which is what are humanity’s best and most realistic hopes for getting through this very difficult century that we have,” he told Bangladesh’s Business Standard in 2022, while visiting the country during the research stage of his new project, Hope Dies Last. Weisman’s book took him all over the world — including the Korean de-militarized zone, the Netherlands, and the Marshall Islands — as he looked to speak with people across disciplines and professions about how we can approach our future. Bill McKibben has described the result as “a nonfiction companion to Kim Stanley Robinson’s Ministry for the Future.” Preorder it here.
In 1999, 24-year-old environmentalist Terence Unity Freitas traveled to Colombia to support the Indigenous U’wa people in resisting Occidental Petroleum, which was interested in drilling to extract some 1.5 billion barrels of oil from beneath the cloud forest. During what was supposed to be a weeklong visit, Freitas was kidnapped by the Armed Revolutionary Forces of Colombia (better known as FARC) along with two other Americans; their bodies were later found, bound and shot, just over the border in Venezuela. Twenty years later, Abby Reyes — the author of this memoir and Freitas’ partner at the time of his death — was recognized as a victim in Colombia’s truth and reconciliation process, resurfacing old griefs, reflections, and questions. “I bring the reader along in my demand for truth before the tribunal while awakening our collective awareness of what the truth demands of all of us in this era of ecological collapse and social transformation,” Reyes has said of her book. Preorder it here.
In Susanna Kwan’s debut novel, Awake in the Floating City, San Francisco is almost entirely underwater. Years of Biblical rain mean most people have already evacuated, but Bo — who lost her mother to the waters — lingers long past when sensible people have fled. Then one day, she receives a note from her neighbor, Mia, a 130-year-old woman who doesn’t want to leave the city, either; together, the two become the last people left in San Francisco. “What post-apocalyptic vision dares be so gorgeous?” marvels the author Meng Jin in one of the book’s early blurbs. Preorder it here.
Identical twin sister arborists teach the Women’s Tree Climbing Workshop. While that sounds like the beginning of a fairy tale, it’s the delightfully real-life starting point of journalist Marguerite Holloway’s Take to the Trees. “I was there to be in trees and to better understand them,” she writes of her attendance at the climbing workshop. “Trees and forests are facing existential threats because of climate change, but it can be a struggle to grasp the extent of the danger.” While not all of us have the time, ability, or inclination to take to such “gut-lurching” heights to learn more, we can read Take to the Trees, which records Holloway’s experience overcoming her fears and learning to appreciate the threat to American forests. Preorder it here.
Natural history is one of my favorite genres, and I’m especially excited for Sea of Grass by Minnesota Star Tribute journalists Dave Hage and Josephine Marcotty about one of the more neglected ecosystems of the genre: the American prairie. The grassland, which makes up a vast swath of the inner United States, is an incredible self-sustaining marvel — and nearly as biodiverse as a tropical rainforest. Yet many people today still either share European settlers’ disinterested view of the landscape or adopt a purely utilitarian one — which is why, after 200 years of plows, drainages, and nitrogen fertilizers, the effects have been “catastrophic.” Still, plenty of people who live on the prairie understand the importance of protecting such a special ecosystem, and Hage and Marcotty follow the effort to work alongside the land, not just against it. Sea of Grass earned a coveted blurb from McKibben, in which he calls the book “well worth the read.” Preorder it here.
We’ve been attempting to predict the weather for as long as humans have existed. Satellites, radars, and computers helped us make a significant leap forward from the days of farmer’s almanacs, but advances in artificial intelligence, drones, and the proliferation of home weather stations have created previously unimaginable opportunities for accuracy. (It’s a tech frontier we’ve covered quite a bit here at Heatmap, as well). In his book, Journalist Thomas E. Weber dives into the wild — and wildly important — world of forecasting, which will hit shelves just in time for hurricane season. Preorder it here.
Climate scientist and Shift Key guest Kate Marvel structured her highly anticipated first book around nine different emotional lenses for looking at climate change. That might seem like an odd angle for a scientist, since researchers are specifically taught not to bring emotion into their work. Still, she contends that just as there is no one way to feel about climate change, there is no one emotion we can tap to guide our response to it, either. From hope to pride to love, Marvel urges readers to get deep into their feels in Human Nature, which also touches on “Greek mythology,” “witches,” “geophysical fluid dynamics,” and “romantic comedies” — though according to Marvel, you won’t find “despair” in its pages. A 120,000-copy initial print run suggests the publisher, Ecco, believes this one will be a hit. Preorder it here.
Addressing climate change will require us to address how we eat, which accounts for a third of our carbon emissions. How to ameliorate that is one of the most significant questions we’re currently staring down as a species — and the topic of journalist and Heatmap contributor Michael Grunwald’s next book. Though the answers he finds might not always fit into our comfortable narratives — Grunwald recently ruffled feathers with a related piece for The New York Times defending industrial agriculture’s high yields on small parcels of land as our “best hope” — We Are Eating the Earth seems certain to reshape how its readers think about food, policy, and our thrice-daily consumptions. I can’t wait to be challenged by it. Preorder it here.
Science journalist Peter Brannen’s last book was about the five times life on our planet almost ended in mass extinctions. His follow-up, The Story of CO2 Is the Story of Everything, will zero in on the collection of molecules that have allowed life to exist in the first place. Of course, the great irony of carbon dioxide is that while it has made our planet habitable, fluctuations in its presence in the atmosphere are also responsible for things like almost killing our ancestors all off in an event known as the Great Dying — and now, of course, we have put our thumb on that scale. By looking backward, often by many millions of years, Brennen gives us a glimpse of our future. You’ll definitely want to preorder this book, if only because it will look great on the shelf next to Brennen’s other Eric Nyquist-designed cover. Preorder it here.
The Edge of Water, by Olufunke Grace Bankole (Feb. 4), a novel about a Nigerian immigrant to New Orleans whose destiny is shaped by a hurricane; Ends of the Earth Journeys to the Polar Regions in Search of Life, the Cosmos, and Our Future, by Neil Shubin (Feb. 4), about what we can learn about life and our future from our world’s most extreme landscapes; Dimming the Sun: The Urgent Case for Geoengineering, by Thomas Ramge (March 4), which makes the case for solar geoengineering to turn down the heat on a warming planet; Bad Nature, by Ariel Courage (April 1), an ecological disaster road-trip novel with a patricide plot; Shelter and Storm: At Home in the Driftless, by Tamara Dean (April 8), a memoir about living through the era of climate uncertainty; The Float Test, by Lynn Steger Strong (April 8), a family drama set against the backdrop of a sweltering Florida summer; Atomic Dreams: The New Nuclear Evangelists and the Fight for the Future of Energy, by Rebecca Tuhus-Dubrow (April 8), about the political reversal over nuclear’s place in the energy transition; Phytopolis: The Living City, by Stefano Mancuso (April 22), about how we can adapt our cities, greenly, to the challenges of the future; Carbon: The Book of Life, by Paul Hawken (March 18), about the element both responsible for life and perhaps the biggest threat against it; A Year of Compassion: 52 Weeks of Living Zero-Waste, Plant-Based, and Cruelty-Free, by Colleen Patrick-Goudreau (March 25), about how to protect the planet with small acts of kindness from home; The Lost Trees of Willow Avenue: A Story of Climate and Hope on One American Street, by Mike Tidwell (March 25), a chronicle of record year for climate change as seen on a single Washington, D.C., block; Ocean: Earth’s Last Wilderness, by David Attenborough and Colin Butfield (May 6), the story of one of the planet’s most critical features, co-authored by one of its most beloved natural historians; Arctic Passages: Ice, Exploration, and the Battle for Power at the Top of the World, by Kieran Mulvaney (May 13), about what the age of Arctic exploration can reveal to us about the future of the pole; Hot Takes: Every Journalist’s Guide to Covering Climate Change, by Sadie Babits (June 2), a handbook for incorporating climate science into your reporting.
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The state’s market is in such disarray, a Democrat actually stands a shot at winning the office.
In the waning weeks of the midterm election cycle, the question of who will serve as Oklahoma’s next insurance commissioner is unlikely to be a topic of intense speculation at dinner tables around the country — or in Oklahoma, for that matter.
For one thing, it’s about as down-ballot a race as you can get, another bubble to be filled in alongside state treasurer and superintendent of public instruction. For another, it’s difficult to imagine it will be much of a competition: It’s been two decades since a Democrat last won statewide office in Oklahoma.
But if there ever were a race for an upset, this would be it. Oklahoma is one of the most expensive places in the country to purchase home insurance, with an average annual premium in 2024 of over $5,819 for $350,000 in dwelling coverage — well above the national average of $3,303 and behind only Florida and Louisiana, per the most recent numbers from the Consumer Federation of America. That’s even more staggering given the local cost of living: Oklahomans spend more of their median household income, $65,039, than residents in any other state on home insurance — almost 9%.
When it comes to arguing for greater industry regulation, Democrats are typically on more comfortable footing against their conservative counterparts. Craig MacIntyre, the Democrat in the Oklahoma insurance commissioner race, has promised to use the state’s new “file and wait” law to review rate increase requests closely before they’re implemented. But in a strange reversal of roles, Republican candidate Bob Sullivan won a four-way primary and subsequent runoff that centered on the conservatives arguing over who would be the toughest industry regulator.
The topsy-turvy politics don’t stop there. Republicans in the state have also called out the impacts of extreme weather on premiums, albeit without going quite so far as to blame climate change. Sullivan unabashedly models himself after Trump (“Make insurance fair again!” “Drain the insurance swamp!”) but also set himself apart from the competition by challenging the narrative that severe weather — not climate change, per se — is the primary explanation for the state’s high rates — putting him more in line with the Democrat, who almost hasn’t mentioned weather at all.
It’s a notable break. Extreme weather has long been the go-to explanation for Republicans about the state’s high homeowners’ premiums. “We get our fair share of weather in Oklahoma,” the state’s outgoing, term-limited insurance commissioner Glen Mulready told me. “We’re right next to Texas and Kansas and Arkansas, so they get the same weather we do — that’s the quote we hear all the time,” he added, “which is just simply not true.”
Oklahoma Watch, a nonprofit investigative newsroom that reports extensively on the state’s insurance crisis, has suggested that the insurance industry and its allies in the state might be using hail in particular “as a scapegoat to justify high rates,” given that other states with high instances of hail pay far less in premiums.
It’s true, though, that Oklahoma seems to be a particularly bad place for hail, which is responsible for an estimated $1 billion in annual property and crop damages in the United States. In most of the state, even at the tiny geographical scale of an individual roof, you have about a one-in-10 chance each year of seeing two-inch or larger hail, Ian Giammanco, a lead research meteorologist at the Insurance Institute for Business & Home Safety, told me. Verisk, a risk assessment firm, also found that over the last four years, nearly 50% of Oklahoma roofs were hit by severe hail — the highest rate nationwide.
"Hail gets overlooked, but it’s a huge contributor to rising insurance costs," Michael DeLong, a researcher at the Consumer Federation of America, told me.
Hail’s climate signal isn’t obvious to researchers yet. “We haven’t seen any observational fingerprints that hail appreciably changes” in a warming world, Giammanco said. But while the number of days with severe hail across the U.S. hasn’t changed much, “there may be an upswing in severity that’s just starting to be able to be observed,” he noted. Warmer air, for example, may raise the potential for “really big hail, while the lower end may actually decline.”
Hail is one piece of Oklahoma’s nasty extreme weather cornucopia. Increasingly frequent wildfires, extreme heat, and severe storms and tornadoes also threaten homes (not to mention seismic activity from injecting fossil fuel wastewater underground). Between 1980 and 2024, the state averaged about 2.6 weather disasters per year that cost more than $1 billion in damages, adjusted for inflation, but in the last five years of that timeframe — 2020 to 2024 — it averaged six, including droughts, tornado outbreaks, and blizzards. (The Trump administration retired the National Centers for Environmental Information’s U.S. Billion-Dollar Weather and Climate Disasters database last year, so there isn’t more recent data.)
But the affordability problems don’t exist in a vacuum, and are compounded by historic infrastructure and materials choices. New home construction, for example, peaked at an average of over 2,800 square feet in 2015, meaning a bigger target for hail. “We have lots of field observations of 300 hailstones in a square foot area,” Giammanco told me; in a given storm, more than 800,000 might pummel a house. And while slate and tile roofs — popular construction before the post-war suburban boom — withstand hail well, they’re also slow and difficult to install. Asphalt shingling, on the other hand, is cheap, easy, and popular — and “highly vulnerable to hail, especially as it ages,” Giammanco added.
Republicans have traditionally argued that relatively little can be done about Oklahoma’s high homeowners’ insurance rates, given the state’s weather and larger nationwide trends in inflation-driven rebuilding costs and reinsurance. Karen Collins of the American Property Casualty Insurance Association, an industry advocacy group, further warned the Oklahoma House of Representatives in a hearing last year that cracking down on the industry could drive insurers out of the state. “We’ve seen … when government regulates directly or indirectly price controls on markets with escalating losses, it does turn those affordability challenges into an availability crisis,” she said.
When I asked the APCIA for comment, Walter Gonzalez, the assistant vice president of state government relations, told me in an email that “the story in Oklahoma today is not accelerating rate increases. It’s decelerating rate increases.” He pointed me to data showing that average rate increases among the state’s largest insurers fell from 16.4% in 2023 to 5.3% by 2025, and they’re at just 2.9% so far in 2026. Still, what homeowners actually pay is a different story: Oklahoma was among six states nationally to see homeowners’ premiums increase by more than 20% in 2025, an Insurify report found.
Gonzalez also pointed out that insurers paid close to or more in losses and expenses than they made in premiums over the past several years. In a blog post last year, Mulready wrote that Oklahoma’s top 20 insurers paid out $129 in claims for every $100 in premium collected in 2023, improving slightly to $97 in claims for every $100 in premiums collected in 2024. Critics of the industry, however, argue that focusing on underwriting losses elides a major source of profit for insurance companies: their investments.
Birny Birnbaum, the executive director of the Center for Economic Justice, a nonprofit that works on insurance advocacy for low-income and minority consumers, agreed that recent years have been challenging, especially after the reinsurance market retrenched and doubled prices following Florida storms in 2021 and 2022. But those rates have since stabilized and even declined, he said, yet “the insurance companies haven’t been reducing their premiums to reflect that.” Birnbaum has also been highly critical of Mulready’s approach — a hands-off, free-market approach to the insurance industry designed to spark competition and drive down prices. The insurance commissioner never denied a home insurance rate increase requested by an insurance company during his eight-year tenure, Mulready confirmed to me. Indeed, state statute barred him from doing so, he said. “There is no excessive rate in a competitive market,” he told me.
Birnbaum is not convinced. “For some reason, in virtually every state, the regulatory model is: If we allow the insurance companies to do whatever they want, that will bring them back into the market,” he said. He likened that argument to someone claiming that if we removed the Affordable Care Act’s preexisting condition protections, we’d ultimately end up with more people insured. If you heard that, “you’d go, ‘That’s the stupidest thing I ever heard in my life,’” he said, minus an expletive.
A loose regulatory environment might also mean that Oklahoma ends up subsidizing insurance in higher-risk, more tightly regulated ones. When national insurers take big losses in states like California that have stricter rules around rates, they may increase costs in states where it’s easier to do so, Ishita Sen, a professor of finance at Harvard Business School, told The New York Times. (Mulready has vehemently denied this on his podcast.)
Whether Oklahoma’s insurance market is truly competitive is even an open question to some. The insurance industry’s stance, like Mulready’s, is that the Oklahoma market is competitive, and “market-share concentration alone is not a measure of whether consumers have meaningful coverage choices.” And yet Allstate and State Farm alone represent a little over 40% of the market in Oklahoma.
Breaking with Mulready and the APCIA, Sullivan, the Republican candidate for commissioner, told E&E News that he plans to declare the state’s insurance market “non-competitive” if elected. (In an odd quirk of state law, there is no benchmark at which a market becomes competitive or not; it is entirely at the insurance commissioner’s discretion to declare it as such, so long as they hold a public hearing first.) MacIntyre, the Democrat dark horse, has described the market the same way.
Mulready told me that doing so would be a “mistake.” “The only data point that anyone ever presented to me only proved a competitive market,” he said, citing both the Herfindahl-Hirschman index and the four-firm concentration ratio, two popular forms of measurement. An investigation by Oklahoma Watch, however, found that the Oklahoma Insurance Department counted companies, not insurance groups, giving it rosier numbers on the HHI and CR4 scales and distorting the picture of a “potential oligopoly.” Birnbaum, the executive director for the Center of Economic Justice, told me that Oklahoma has “a complete seller’s market” and describing it as competitive is “laughable.”
That said, either choice for the office on the ballot in November would be “lightyears ahead of the current commissioner,” Birnbaum added. “The two candidates who are running both have better ideas and better values and better understanding of how insurance markets operate,” he said.
The winner will have his work cut out for him, though. Birnbaum stressed that the state has done little to assist in residential storm-proofing — one of the most important levers for bringing down costs — and the existing grant program for roof replacements is woefully insufficient. “It would take probably 50 years at this current level of funding to reach all these [homes], and none of these programs actually require insurance companies to have any skin in the game,” he told me, pointing to Wisconsin and Louisiana as examples of states that require insurance companies to offer discounts that incentivize loss prevention. (Mulready told me the first-come, first-serve grant program, which draws on unused funds of the Insurance Department, has helped replace around 700 roofs since it began in 2025).
In addition to reviewing rate increase requests and opening investigations into insurance companies’ claims payment processes, DeLong echoed the need for a much larger grant mitigation program. “Admittedly, that’s going to be expensive,” he conceded. “But it will be a lot more expensive if you don’t do anything.”
Mulready, meanwhile, laughed when I asked him for his advice for his successor. “That could be awhile,” he said. But he directed Sullivan or MacIntyre to “make decisions based on the data.” That’s what he did, he said. And the years, he mused, have gone fast.
Current conditions: Tropical Storm Simon is expected to intensify into a Category 4 storm as it tracks northeast into Mexico and Texas from the eastern Pacific • Further north in the Pacific, Tropical Storm Rachel is barreling toward Southern California and northern Mexico • Hurricane Isaias, the first major storm of the Atlantic hurricane season, is poised to make landfall as a Category 2 sometime between 8 p.m. ET and 1 a.m. and somewhere between Alabama’s Dauphin Island and Destin, Florida.
With swells topping 7 feet, Hurricane Isaias has forced almost two-thirds of U.S. oil output in the Gulf of Mexico offline, as the storm cuts a path through one of the most productive regions of the sea. Of the 371 manned drilling rigs in the Gulf, 121 were evacuated as of Thursday night, representing a third of all platforms, according to data from the Department of the Interior’s Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement. But those rigs represent 1.3 million barrels per day of production, or roughly two-thirds of the Gulf’s crude output. Almost 1.2 million cubic feet per day of gas production, representing over 57% of U.S. production in the Gulf, is also offline.
Meanwhile, an attack on an oil tanker near Qatar, in an area The Wall Street Journal described as deep inside the Persian Gulf, has triggered fears among traders that Iran plans to broaden its strikes on vessels traveling beyond the Strait of Hormuz as the U.S. Navy loosens the Islamic Republic’s grasp over the narrow waterway. The price of Brent crude, the key global benchmark for oil, spiked more than 4%.
Last month, OpenAI provided investors with figures indicating that it expected to rake in $70 billion in annualized revenue as of the end of September. But updated financial documents show a $20 billion shortfall in the ChatGPT maker’s books. The gulf between the two numbers amounted to what the Financial Times called “a massive gap likely to damp optimism about the growth of AI demand” at a moment when investors are diverting billions from factories, healthcare, and housing into data center infrastructure.
Shares in companies whose values are linked to rising demand for electricity, such as the utility Constellation Energy, the nuclear startup Oklo, and the geothermal developer Fervo Energy dipped on Thursday, along with chipmakers Nvidia and Micron.
First off, let me just say, this is quite a stirring way for a national government to begin a press release touting a policy on energy efficiency: “The world is changing rapidly. In response, a confident Canada is choosing to build.” In the name of slashing bills in a country where 7 million households “still heat their homes with oil, propane, diesel, electric baseboards, or outdated furnaces,” Prime Minister Mark Carney launched a nearly $1.5 billion (in U.S. money, not loonies) program Thursday aimed at delivering a million home retrofits. The first part of the program will provide a national heat pump rebate of up to $12,000 for up to 820,000 households. The second part will support the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation and the Canada Infrastructure Bank to renovate 280,000 units over the next eight years to make homes more airtight and energy efficient. Combined, the measures are expected to reduce Canada’s emissions by 25 million metric tons, equal to taking 8.5 million cars off the road for a year.
While my colleague Katie Brigham had a really sharp guide to making your home more efficient back in 2024, when federal money was flowing into such projects through tax credits, U.S. support for home retrofits has fizzled since President Donald Trump returned to office. But as the effects of wildfires worsen, the market for DIY fire protection is booming, our colleague Jeva Lange wrote this week.
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Polskie Elektrownie Jądrowe, the state-owned company building Poland’s first nuclear station on its Baltic coast, has begun ordering long-lead items for its planned trio of Westinghouse AP1000s. That typically involves heavy forgings and castings for pressure vessels, World Nuclear News reported, as well as steam turbines and generators, and marks a major milestone for a project that has started gaining new momentum after years of bureaucratic back and forth.
Urenco USA, the American division of the European nuclear fuel giant, announced Thursday that its new enrichment facility in the U.S. is now 75% complete. “We are consistently delivering new capacity to help fuel the U.S. nuclear industry and allied nations, and our teams are doing it ahead of schedule and on budget,” Jody Blackshear, Urenco USA’s managing director, said in a statement. “This experience will support our larger capacity programs in the years ahead as we look to increase our enrichment production by more than 50% to meet the needs of our customers with traditional and advanced reactors.”

El Niño is here, and it’s threatening below-average rainfall across the northern parts of South America and above-average precipitation in areas such as southern Brazil, Paraguay, and Argentina. That, according to a new International Energy Agency analysis, poses a problem for a continent that depends heavily on hydropower for electricity. “While countries across the region have accumulated significant experience in managing hydrological stress due to El Niño and other climate-related risks, preparedness measures are often focused on specific events, rather than embedded within specific and comprehensive risk-management frameworks,” the report stated. “With climate-related disruptions likely to become more frequent and severe, there is increasing value in adopting a systematic approach to assessing and strengthening emergency preparedness for the electricity sector.” Among the steps the IEA recommended: More interregional power connections, more diverse power mixes, and more dispatchable power units.
QuantumScape has long been a frontrunner in the race to commercialize solid-state batteries that are lighter, more efficient, and ultimately cheaper than the lithium-ion packs that dominate the market today. Now, much like other developers who were previously locked into electric vehicles, the San Jose-based startup is getting into the data center business. On Thursday, the company announced the launch of its QS PowerBlock, a battery unit for behind-the-meter power users. The modular system “can deliver four times the power density and five times the runtime” of the data center industry’s current standards for batteries, the company said in a press release. “Solid-state battery technology offers an unmatched combination of energy, power, and safety for many different applications, from electric vehicles to AI data centers and beyond,” Siva Sivaram, QuantumScape’s chief executive, said in a statement.
Many nonprofits representing the environmental and climate movement are split.
This is Heatmap Daily, an evening digest written by our executive editor.
It’s now been just over a week since a gang of four bipartisan senators released the Bipartisan American Affordability and Jobs Act, or BAAJA. The permitting reform proposal would make too many changes to federal law to summarize cleanly here — read our explainer for that — but suffice it to say it creates a messy group of winners and losers. Utilities, data centers, and the Trump administration would lose; electricity ratepayers, clean energy companies, long-distance transmission lines, and natural gas pipeline builders win. (As would geothermal startups, virtual power plant providers, and a few other climate tech subsectors that my colleague Katie Brigham recently detailed.)
In the ensuing week since its release, we’ve gotten a better sense of the battle lines over the bill. The hardhat unions largely support the proposal (although the International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers, which is often aligned with utility executives, has stayed notably silent on it.) Clean energy trade groups, such as the American Clean Power Association, back it, too, as do fossil fuel lobbying groups, such as the American Petroleum Institute.
Groups representing the environmental and climate movement are more split, and some of the most influential nonprofits have yet to render a verdict. Earlier today, the Sierra Club published its first take on the proposal, which it described as a “hard look” at the bill. The Natural Resources Defense Council asked its own “hard questions” last Friday. Neither document rejects the proposal outright, although both are critical, and both suggest that future statements are coming.
To some degree, the statements say what you might expect: The groups like all the parts of the compromise that Democrats fought for (such as those that will encourage transmission) and dislike what Republicans wanted (such as those that will ease some pipeline permitting). That is what a compromise means — and for congressional procedure reasons too tedious to explain here, permitting reform will likely always need to be passed as a bipartisan compromise, because it will always need to overcome a 60-vote Senate filibuster.
The Sierra Club’s assessment divides the bill into “green flags,” which will make “long-overdue changes to protect consumers and level the playing field for proposed transmission,” such as by making it easier to plan long-distance power lines, protect ratepayers from utility and data center freeloading, and clarify who in the government can approve power lines. It also names four “red flags,” including the “hollowing out” of court authority over some permits, the removal of a Clean Water Act provision that lets governors block pipelines and power lines, and the option to delegate partial Endangered Species Act enforcement to state governments.
This is a helpful scheme, and I hope the Sierra Club continues using it. But I think it would be a mistake to analyze the bill solely through this metric, because it implicitly assumes we are starting from a neutral baseline — or that every additional “unit” of policy support, so to speak, helps an insurgent industry as much as it might aid an incumbent industry. To be clear: Although I’ve endorsed the idea of permitting reform in the past, I’ve been careful not to endorse or reject this particular permitting bill yet; I hope to write a more comprehensive take on this legislation — and whether I think it’s a good idea — before senators ultimately vote on it.
So for now, let me say that I think everyone should keep in mind that the baseline around U.S. energy permitting is, in fact, not neutral today. By this, I do not merely mean that natural gas pipelines already have a one-stop shop for federal permits, but transmission developers have to go hat in hand to every state government; nor that fracking is already carved out from some federal environmental review laws, but enhanced geothermal technology isn’t.
The mismatch goes deeper than that. Many of the discussions of the bill that I’ve seen seem to fear that the United States might witness some enormous and unprecedented fossil fuel buildout were the bill to pass. But make no mistake: We are already witnessing such a buildout. The United States is slated to add more than 60 gigawatts of new natural gas generation capacity by 2030 under its existing laws.
The existing system of laws, regulations, and procedures is failing to avert an enormous fossil fuel buildout. The existing system has proven itself completely inadequate to manage an era of electricity demand growth and the data center boom without surging fossil demand and sky-rocketing electricity prices. The existing system of laws is pushing hyperscalers and developers to burn natural gas on site, often through rudimentary jet engines.
And the existing system of laws has shown that fossil fuel consumers will go to great lengths to move and obtain fossil fuels, even when dedicated transport options like pipelines are not available. I’ve heard fears that the permitting bill will make it easier to build natural gas pipelines. But pipelines, to a dedicated artificial intelligence customer, are no constraint: Oracle is now delivering natural gas to some of its data centers by truck when pipeline capacity isn’t available.
There may be reasons for green groups to reject this deal. (And there may be reasons for Democratic lawmakers to support it anyway, even if environmental groups oppose it.) But the perfection of our current environmental and energy legal regime is not one of them. Even if your sole goal were to reduce the carbon emissions produced by the American energy system — even if you set aside the problems with cost, conventional pollution, or monopoly control — the current system sucks.