Sign In or Create an Account.

By continuing, you agree to the Terms of Service and acknowledge our Privacy Policy

Daily Briefing

Why Rivian Is So Optimistic

The automaker had a decent second quarter, but projects its best-ever year-end performance, as we wrap up a busy week in the energy economy.

•
Rivian car.
Heatmap Illustration | Unsplash

This is an edition of Heatmap Daily, an evening review of the day’s news written by our executive editor. Sign up for it here.

We are now well into the quarterly earning season, and this week we got a bead on some of the energy and climate economy’s biggest stories. Here’s what stuck out to me:

Oil companies had a blow-out quarter. As my colleague Matthew Zeitlin wrote today, oil and gas companies cashed in on the global price surge triggered by the Iran war. Their refining businesses did particularly well. But their results also revealed that global oil demand continues to fall — at least for now.

Some data center bets are starting to pay off. As I wrote on Wednesday, Microsoft had a bonanza quarter, and its Azure cloud business — which allows other companies to rent its data centers — grew faster than Wall Street expected.

That matters because America’s biggest tech companies have spent the past few years transforming into industrial firms, building massive new infrastructure and driving up U.S. electricity demand — and that strategy, contrary to some expectations, seems to be working for now.

Rivian is optimistic. The most important U.S. electric vehicle maker not run by Elon Musk released their second quarter results on Thursday night. The outlook was … decent!

The company delivered almost 12,200 vehicles last quarter. This was Rivian’s best period for sales since the third quarter of last year, when every EV maker’s results were juiced because the Inflation Reduction Act’s EV leasing tax credit expired.

Bar chart titled \u201cRivian\u2019s Very Decent Second Quarter\u201d showing quarterly vehicle deliveries from Q1 2023 through Q2 2026. Deliveries rose from 7,946 in Q1 2023 to a peak of 15,564 in Q3 2023, then fluctuated. After falling to 8,640 in Q1 2025, sales recovered to 13,201 in Q3, dipped to 9,745 in Q4, and climbed again to 12,194 in Q2 2026. The chart notes that sales have rebounded since U.S. EV incentives ended and Rivian projects record year-end performance.

Crucially, this was our first look at Rivian’s sales since it started delivering its more affordable (and well-reviewed) crossover, the R2. That vehicle started going out to customers at the very end of the quarter in mid-June, so we only get a snippet of those deliveries in this number.

More heartening, I think, is Rivian’s forward guidance. It now expects to deliver 65,000 to 70,000 vehicles this year, which implies it will deliver an average of more than 21,000 over the next two quarters. That would make Q3 and Q4 of this year its best sales periods ever.

RJ Scaringe, the company’s CEO, said that R2 sales conversions were running “meaningfully higher” than the company projected. The company still lost $379 million last quarter, but that was much better than analysts had projected.

We last checked in on Rivian when they sold new stock earlier this month to fund collateral for an Energy Department loan that will let them build a second factory in Georgia. On the call yesterday, executives confirmed they expect to start drawing on that loan in early 2027, part of what it painted as a healthy cash flow picture. For all the optimism, though, investors seemingly remain skeptical: Its stock fell 8% today.

Yellow

You’re out of free articles.

Subscribe to access Heatmap's exclusive climate and energy polling, award-winning journalism, and subscriber-only events. Save $57 on an annual subscription, just $156 $99/year.
To continue reading
Create a free account or sign in to unlock more free articles.
or
Please enter an email address
By continuing, you agree to the Terms of Service and acknowledge our Privacy Policy
The Capitol.
Heatmap Illustration/Getty Images

This transcript has been automatically generated.

Subscribe to “Shift Key” and find this episode on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Amazon, YouTube, or wherever you get your podcasts.

Keep reading...Show less
Green
Podcast

Lots of Environmental Groups Oppose the Permitting Bill. This One Doesn’t.

Rob talks with Evergreen Action’s Lena Moffitt and Pete Wyckoff about why they support BAAJA, even in spite of its flaws.

The Capitol.
Heatmap Illustration/Getty Images

The Senate will likely vote next week on the Bipartisan American Affordability and Jobs Act, a bill to reshape the federal permitting process.

The proposed legislation has divided the environmental community and the set of interest groups often aligned with Democrats. The Wilderness Society and Earthjustice are opposed, and the Sierra Club wants big changes. The AFL-CIO and the National Urban League support the measure.

Keep reading...Show less
Green
Adaptation

The Deadliest Part of a Wildfire Might Not Be the Blaze

Smoke from the raging fires in Indonesia may go down as this year’s deadliest climate tragedy.

A child running through smoke.
Muhammad Fajri/NurPhoto via Getty Images

It’s a morbid game to try to name the worst climate disaster of 2026. In Europe this summer, a series of extreme heat waves killed an estimated 50,000 people. In September, a thawing Himalayan glacier collapsed, sending a wall of water cascading through Tibet and Nepal, killing at least 1,500 people, with nearly 6,000 still missing months later. And this past January, authorities feared hundreds of migrants died while trying to cross the Mediterranean during Cyclone Harry, including 50 in one shipwreck alone.

But the disaster that will result in perhaps the greatest and longest-lasting tragedy is the one unfolding right now in Indonesia.

Keep reading...Show less