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Do you want a light tailwind or a full-on hurricane?

“The only thing better for the climate than buying an EV over a gasoline-powered car is buying no car at all,” the climate scientist
Rob Jackson has written. But for many Americans, not having a car at all is the stuff of logistical and cultural nightmares. The average person living in the U.S. covers more than 1,000 miles per month in their vehicle, and nearly 45% of people don’t even have the option of opting for public transportation. Ditching your car? You might as well ask people to give up their cell phones.
But across the country, transportation advocates and e-bike warriors are looking for solutions to go, if not entirely car-less, then at least car-light. Heatmap has put together a comprehensive guide to help you make a decision that best fits your lifestyle, whether that’s becoming a superpedestrian, a committed e-bike user, or just trying to replace a couple of short-haul drives a week.
Doug Gordon is the cohost of “The War on Cars,” a podcast about the fight against car culture. He is also a writer, TV producer, and safe streets advocate, and he advises nonprofits and mobility companies on communications strategies to promote better streets and public infrastructure through his Brooklyn Spoke Media consulting business.
Alexa Sledge is the director of communications at Transportation Alternatives, a nonprofit organization that has worked to promote non-polluting, safe, and quiet travel in New York City since 1973.
Bryan Dean is the sales manager at The eBike Store in Portland, Oregon, which opened in 2008 as the city’s first e-bike-only retailer. He’s spent over six years helping customers pick out their perfect bikes and is also the creator of the #eBikeAnywhere hashtag.
Kevin Lau is a product specialist at REI with more than 20 years of experience. He is based out of Marlton, New Jersey.
Only 8% of U.S. households currently get by without owning a car, and less than 1% of Americans commute to work by bike. The U.S. is so driving-centric that we’re home to one-fifth of all the cars on the planet despite having less than 5% of the global population. Eleven states have more registered vehicles than people.
But just because driving has always been your default doesn’t mean it makes the most sense for the kind of travel you do — even if you live somewhere without great public transportation. Over half of all trips Americans make in a car are for a distance of less than three miles — perfect to convert into a bike ride.
“I think of mobility like a Swiss army knife: You have to use the right tool for the job,” Gordon told me. “If I just need to pick up a carton of milk, does it make sense to do that in a 6,000-pound metal box on wheels that is powered by dinosaur juice? Not so much.”
On average, commuting by bike in the U.S. saves an estimated $2,500 per year, and it has been found to have massive benefits for one’s mental health, cardiovascular health, and even productivity at work. Yes, even e-bikes!
“If you go to places like Copenhagen or Amsterdam — places where there are huge numbers of cyclists — and you poll those people, concern for the environment barely cracks the top five reasons why they cycle,” Gordon said. “The reasons why people cycle in Denmark and the Netherlands are because it’s safe and convenient, and it’s often the fastest and cheapest way to get where they’re going.”
Transportation is the most significant contributor to climate change in the United States, with nearly 60% of the sector’s greenhouse gas emissions coming from cars alone (another 23% comes from trucks). Replacing a quarter of your total driving with walking, biking, or e-biking could save 1.3 tons of greenhouse gas emissions per year, according to our friends at WattTime — about the same as forgoing burning 1,433 pounds of coal or three barrels of oil. If every American drove even a mere 10% less per year, it’d be like taking 28 coal-fired power plants offline.
You can still make a significant impact without ditching your car, in other words: You simply have to drive less. And the upsides are enormous. More Americans die of car pollution than in car accidents every year. Additionally, commuting by bike or by foot makes us healthier and happier.
It also helps us realize what our community priorities should be. “Individual action is not always what we need to focus on,” Gordon said. “We need to focus on institutional change. But my philosophy is that lots of individual action actually adds up to the political will to get the institutional change you need.”
A survey of studies from five countries (including the U.S.) found that the main barriers to cycling were low perceived safety, bad weather, lack of cycling infrastructure (including “shower facilities” at one’s destination), and distance and perceived effort.
Safety is a valid concern. Riding a bike is about 500 times more likely to be fatal than riding a bus, according to a 2007 study; even with the success of programs like New York’s Vision Zero, collisions with cars remain a real danger for people on bikes. The car-related pollution inhaled while cycling can also shorten a cyclist’s life by an estimated one to 40 days. But the benefits of cycling on average far outweigh the risks: Riding a bike adds an estimated three to 14 months to your life, even when the possibilities of collisions and air pollution are considered. The health benefits are so significant that a separate study by Swedish researchers found that cyclists had a 47% lower risk of early death and a 10% lower risk of hospitalization compared to car and train commuters.
What about concerns about shower availability and the “distance and perceived effort” of riding a bike? That’s where the advantages of an e-bike’s pedal assist come into play. “E-bikes are great at blasting through any concerns you have about sweat,” Gordon told me. Even in hot weather or on difficult terrain, pedal assist can keep you looking fresh when you arrive at the office.
The first step to driving less is thinking about when and where you can replace specific trips with walking, cycling, or public transportation instead. Lau told me his general rule of thumb is that if a trip is less than a mile and he can safely walk (i.e. if there are sidewalks or safe paths), then he’ll walk. “If it’s more than that, I’ll take the bike if I have a place to lock it or can bring it into my workplace or store,” he said. For trips where he might need some extra assistance — that are farther, longer, hillier, or will require carrying “more cargo without working as hard,” he’ll opt for an e-bike instead.
You can do a lot of this reconnaissance from your couch. Apple Maps and Google Maps can take a lot of the guesswork out of finding the best bike paths to and from your house and the other places you frequent, including informing you ahead of time if the route will require riding on major or minor roads or ones with protected bike lanes. Google and Apple Maps can also give you real-time information about public transportation options in your area (as well as allow you to plan for trips when service might be reduced, like late nights or weekends), and many transit systems now have their own apps to make tracking delays or alternative service simpler.
It’s funny how you don’t realize where the long, slow inclines are in your neighborhood until you’re huffing up them on a bike. Google Maps and Apple Maps can show you what elevation to expect on a walking or cycling route. If you live in a hillier area, an e-bike might be better than a traditional bike since it can take some of the ouch out of the ups.
“Something really, really important that people don’t always think about is gear,” Sledge told me. “It doesn’t necessarily have to be expensive, but if you can only ride your bike when it’s 80 degrees and sunny, that’s not the best scenario.”
If you live somewhere where it gets hot, rainy, snowy, windy, or the weather can change unexpectedly, think ahead of time about the sort of gear you’d need to make cycling or walking more comfortable. (We have a checklist of ideas below.)
California, Colorado, Connecticut, Hawaii, Massachusetts, New York, Oklahoma, and Vermont all have statewide tax credits or rebates to encourage e-bike adoption.
Live somewhere that isn’t on that list? Here is a super handy tracker from the Transportation Research and Education Center at Portland State University of more than 100 counties, cities, and municipalities that offer e-bike incentive programs. Also, look for e-bike lending libraries that might be in your area.
If you’re having trouble learning about the programs available to you, head into a brick-and-mortar e-bike shop in your area or connect with your local transportation advocacy group — they’ll know what programs you can take advantage of and be happy to point you in the right direction.
Do you know what bike enthusiasts love more than anything? Creating new bike enthusiasts. If you’re still feeling intimidated by the idea of getting on a bike — or even if you’re not — “find a friend who’s already doing it,” Gordon suggested. Bike people are “an evangelical bunch, and if you tell a friend who you know is into biking or bike commutes regularly that ‘Hey, I’m thinking of doing it,’ I can guarantee that person will be more than happy to hold your hand and help you through your first ride.”
There are dozens of emissions-free or emissions-light transportation options, from using your own two feet to digging the old beater bicycle out of your garage to going full Steve Wozniak with a Segway. The most important thing is to something you’ll actually use.
That said — “What’s really going to be the best option for most Americans is an e-bike,” Sledge told me. “That’s a true car replacement when so often a [traditional] bike can’t be a true, true, true car replacement.” E-bikes are simply more practical and comfortable for longer rides or daily commutes, and if you need to haul things like groceries or children, they can’t be beaten.
I’ve looked at all my options and don’t think I can drive any less than I already do. What can I do instead?
There’s no way around it: E-bikes are pricy. “An e-bike is going to be a big purchase — nowhere near as much as a car, but still, it’s a major purchase,” Sledge said. Even with incentive programs (more on that below), you’re likely to spend more than $1,000 out of pocket.
It is tempting to look for a bargain. But Dean stressed that manufacturers and bulk retailers are “sacrificing a lot” in terms of quality and service to make a profit at lower price points. As a rule, “If you’re spending less than $1,000 on any bike, it’s landfill,” he said. “And that waste is toxic — odds are, it isn’t going to be recycled properly.”
Gordon suggested that if you’re concerned about how often you’ll use an e-bike, it makes sense to get “a cheap regular bike” initially. “Then you can figure out if this is something you want to do in the long term, and after a few weeks, or a month, or a year, you can go, ‘Okay, I’m ready for the $1,000, $2,000, $5,000 bicycle.’”
Perspective is important, too. Yes, e-bikes are expensive — if you compare them to regular bikes. “If you compare them to cars, they’re a bargain,” Gordon said. “E-bikes are a replacement tool; they’re not an upgrade from other bikes. So if you’re a family with two cars and are going down to one, getting a $2,500 or even $5,000 e-bike is a relative bargain.” Additionally, many retailers — including The eBike Store in Portland, Oregon, where Dean works — offer installment plans to help make the purchase more manageable.
Conversion kits are a popular way to convert an analog bike you already own into an e-bike by attaching a motor to the front hub, rear hub, or mid-drive. Many of these kits can be found cheaply on websites like Amazon, though The Washington Post warns that it is still a “very Wild West market” and to only buy batteries from reputable e-bike battery brands (low-quality batteries are more likely to start fires). While converting to an e-bike might be a good option for you if you want to dip a toe in the e-bike water, you’ll still need to spend several hundred dollars to get a kit that gives you the same oomph as an actual e-bike. That said, whatever option gets you on a bike is the best one, and if you’re converter-kit curious, here’s a good guide for learning where to start.
“Buying a bike at a brick-and-mortar store from competent, kind people who love their job — customers are going to have a fantastic experience,” Dean told me. “They’re going to get a great taste for the bike, which means they’ll be riding it a lot. We’re not in the business of selling bikes that sit and rot in someone’s garage.”
It is especially important to go to a store with e-bike specialists on staff (rather than a bulk retailer like Costco — or worse, anything online) because the mechanics will have checked the bike over and adjusted the safety points so it’s ready to go. “You’re going to get educated and get a strong appreciation of the beautiful tool that you are buying, and learn how to operate it and make it last,” Dean added.
Most importantly, though, ensure you take the bike for a test ride before handing over your credit card. Any retailer worth its salt will offer this as an option; the best retailers will take you on a guided test ride, where they’ll teach you how to use the e-bike you’re trying out. But the bottom line is, “Don’t buy a bike that you haven’t ridden,” Dean said. “Ride the bike before you buy it; that’s in all-caps with smiley faces and exclamation points. Don't buy the bike if you can’t ride it first.”
“Buy the bike that’s going to put the biggest, dumbest smile on your face.”
Dean said he points riders looking to log miles to the Specialized Como. “When you’re commuting long miles, you want something comfortable, something that’s reliable, something that has a strong enough motor that will get you where you’re going and a big-enough battery that you’re not going to sweat it,” he said. The Specialized Como is also an excellent choice for people who want to “show up to work not sweaty” but maybe get a little bit more of a workout on the way home.
If you prefer commuting on a traditional bike, Lau suggested REI’s ADV 1.1, a road touring bike, or the CTY 1.1 bike, a less-expensive hybrid built for logging longer distances and enduring the daily wear-and-tear of a commute. His e-bike pick for commuters is the CTY e2.2, a popular, well-reviewed, and accessible commuter bike specifically marketed to “replace car trips.”
Dean loves to recommend Tern bikes to people who want to make trips with their kids. “They’ve been doing this for a long time, they have tons of great accessories, and they use Bosch power systems,” he said — all points in the bike’s favor. That customizability and reliability make it a good fit for families who want to be able to tailor the bike to their needs and price point while also not having to worry about it breaking down in the middle of a toddler’s meltdown.
But there is one other primary reason why Dean points parents to Tern. “All of their bikes are rider first, cargo behind” — versus bucket bikes that put the cargo in front of the rider. While the latter design is also popular, it also means that if you’re trying to squeak out into traffic, you’re nosing your most precious cargo ahead of you, into potential harm’s way.
Lau offered three options for e-bikes that won’t make you miss the trunk of your car, starting with the Cannondale Cargowagen, which can lug up to 440 pounds — that is a lot of Chili & Lime Flavored Rolled Corn Tortilla Chips. Its range isn’t quite as good as some other bikes on the market — the battery is 545 watt-hours — so it’s probably a better fit for people who live in higher-density areas or near their preferred market. (You can always buy a second battery if you want a little more range.) The Cargowagen is also a class 3 bike, meaning you won’t have to worry about the ice cream melting before you can get home.
Like Dean, Lau loves to recommend Tern bikes for handling heavy loads, especially the Tern GSD S00, which conveniently folds up so it can even be stored in an apartment or transported in an elevator while still being compatible with Tern’s line of cargo-carrying products — but at almost $6,000 before add-ons, it’ll likely be out of many first-time e-bikers’ budgets. Tern’s Vektron S10 is a less expensive option and still has the power to handle hilly roads with six Trader Joe’s bags in tow. (Note that both Terns are class 1 bikes, meaning the pedal assist tops out at 20 miles per hour.)
“Lightweight e-bikes are out there,” Dean said, and can be had — for the right amount of money. “They’re usually going to start around $3,500 to $4,000 and then go up from there,” he told me, pointing to Specialized as one of his favorite lightweight brands.
Keep in mind that you may not need a lightweight e-bike. “No one has ever come in and said, ‘I want a heavy bike,’” Dean pointed out. Electric motors are, by necessity, heavy, so getting a lighter bike can mean sacrificing half the motor and battery. There are workarounds: “If you have stairs to go up, almost all of these bikes have a walk assist mode,” which gently turns the tires so you’re not fighting gravity on your own, Dean told me. Likewise, if you’re trying to load your bike onto a car rack, “you don’t have to Hulk it up there; you can be a little smarter about your efforts by picking up the front wheel and putting it in the rack behind your car. Then pick up the back wheel.” If you’re really struggling with your bike, you can always pop off the battery — one of the heavier components — and carry it separately.
The best new commuter bike you can get away with is the CTY 1.1, the analog bike Lau recommended above, but for an e-bike option, he points customers to the Co-op CTY e2.1, an easy, accessible, no-frills class 1 bike that won’t run you more than $2,000. It might be a little light on features for a serious urban commuter, though.
Dean told me that the Gazelle Medeo and some of the bikes from Electra Country will have price points that could be more acceptable to customers on a budget. Gazelle uses the reliable Bosch power system, and the Medeo is “really good” and comes in “multiple versions.” (I found one for less than $2,000). Electra Country is a subsidiary of Trek and is a “one-size-fits-all, beach cruiser-looking bike” that comes in super fun colors.
Congratulations! You’re the proud owner of a bike or an e-bike (or skateboard or e-scooter or a really good pair of walking shoes). What happens now?
While the benefits of riding a bike (or any other form of active transportation) still outweigh the risks, cars are getting bigger, their blindspots are getting larger, and pedestrian and cyclist deaths nationwide are at a 40-year high. Even electric vehicles might be a small part of the problem since they’re so much heavier than regular cars — and that much more dangerous if you get hit.
I asked Sledge how newly carless commuters could become better pedestrians, and she quickly corrected me. “There is no such thing as being a good pedestrian,” she said. “So often, in the United States, when we have groups of people that are consistently harmed by other groups of people, we’re like, ‘How can the victims be better?’ And the real answer is, ‘How can we create systems and designs that protect those people?’”
We’ll get into that. But the bottom line is: be safe when you’re out on the road. Learn how to navigate intersections safely, and don’t take unnecessary risks. Especially if you’re on an e-bike, “You’re traveling faster than most cars are expecting you to,” Dean said. “To remember that, imagine you are not only invisible, but they’re all trying to kill you.”
“Riding a bike is a really good entry for a lot of people into larger political conversations about climate, the design of their cities or towns, and a host of other issues,” Gordon told me. It might only be a short amount of time before you start to wonder why there aren’t more protected bike lanes in your town or city, or why mass transit isn’t reaching your neighborhood or destination, or why lousy road design is making your commute more dangerous than it should be.
There’s some good news, though: There has never been a better time to become a transit advocate. “It could be as small as your block, or your neighborhood, or your city, but there are tons of groups all over the country that focus on working to make them safer and better for the people in them,” Sledge said.
One of the best places to start is by making your voice and your values heard. As Sledge reminded me, car companies already have — and continue to spend money and time lobbying policies that are better for drivers (and their bottom lines) than others on the road. But where to begin? “First, I would look for any kind of organization in your community, your neighborhood, or your city that focuses on safe streets or fighting climate change, and see if you can get involved with them,” Sledge said. “And if you don’t have that kind of organization, start to go to your city council meetings, making your voice heard with your local representatives — those kinds of things really make a difference.”
Another great resource is Transportation for America’s Transit Advocate Guide, which takes you step-by-step through building a movement in your community. Transportation Alternatives also hosts occasional activist trainings to help you learn how to organize successful campaigns in your neighborhood.
Maybe you bought an e-bike or a monthly metro pass … but you’ve been unable to quit your car the way you thought you would. That’s okay! This is not an all-or-nothing activity. “Don’t feel guilty if you’re still driving,” Gordon stressed. Remember that “you’re operating within a system that is built for you to drive, so starting small is really good.” Every fit and start of progress helps.
Remember also that better, low- and zero-emissions-friendly infrastructure and a pedestrian-first culture aren’t going to be built overnight. Even the most hard-core among us still need to use cars occasionally. Just “reimagining how we’re going to truly allocate our public resources — our public dollars, our public services — to serve everyone, and radically rethinking how to do that, is so important,” Sledge said.
I will leave you with one last instruction for ditching your car. When you discover the bike that lets you “follow your joy, follow your bliss,” and puts a “smile on your face” — as Dean likes to say — don’t keep it to yourself.
Someone else in your community is beginning to think about ditching their car, too. It’s your turn now. Go forth. Become someone else’s enthusiastic bike geek.
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On Tesla’s solar factory, Bolivia’s protests, and China’s hydrogen motorcycle
Current conditions: The East Coast heat wave is exposing more than 80 million Americans to temperatures near or above 90 degrees Fahrenheit through at least the end of today, putting grid operators who run PJM Interconnection and the New York electrical systems on high alert • Thunderstorms are drenching the United States’ southernmost capital city, Pago Pago, American Samoa, and driving temperatures up near 90 degrees • Some 3,600 miles north in the Pacific, Guam’s capital city of Hagåtña is in the midst of a week of even worse lightning storms.
American investment in low-carbon energy and transportation has fallen for a second consecutive quarter, ending an unbroken growth trend stretching back to 2019. In the first three months of 2026, total investment in those green sectors reached $61 billion, according to a Rhodium Group analysis published this morning. That’s a 3% drop from the previous quarter — and a 9% decline from the first three months of 2025. Contrary to the Trump administration’s claims to be overseeing a resounding revival of U.S. manufacturing, investments in clean technologies fell for a sixth consecutive quarter to $8 billion, down a whopping 34% from the first quarter of 2025. With federal tax credits for electric vehicles eliminated, investments into battery manufacturing plunged 47% year over year. At the state level, there’s been some progress. Virginia, Colorado, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Michigan, and New York all recorded their largest year-over-year increases over the past four quarters as clean electricity investments at least doubled in each state. “Wind was the primary driver in Virginia, New Mexico, New York, and Colorado; and solar in Michigan and Oklahoma,” the report noted. Sales of electric vehicles, at least on a worldwide level, are also gaining momentum: the International Energy Agency released a report this morning that forecast 30% of global new car sales will be battery electric this year.
The Tuesday night primary elections in six U.S. states, meanwhile, offered mixed results for clean energy supporters. Representative Thomas Massie, the dissident Republican from northern Kentucky who repeatedly broke with his party to criticize President Donald Trump and boasted of his off-grid home’s solar and battery system, lost by double digits to his White House-backed rival. Pennsylvania’s state Representative Chris Rabb, a progressive would-be “Squad” member whose platform mirrors the Green New Deal movement’s key policy demands, won the Democratic primary for the 3rd Congressional District spanning parts of Philadelphia.

During an appearance on Fox News last week, investor and “Shark Tank” star Kevin O’Leary vowed to release documents showing that opponents of the data center complex he proposed building in the Utah desert received funding from China, suggesting the protesters seeking to thwart his $100 billion megaproject were useful idiots in Beijing’s bid to hamper America’s technological progress. Now Secretary of the Interior Doug Burgum is echoing those claims. “It’s not organic and local,” he said Thursday on stage at the Alaska Sustainable Energy Conference in Anchorage, where he was the keynote speaker. “Some of this is foreign-sourced dark money coming in.” The link between rising electricity prices and data centers, he said, was “specious.” He went on to cite a specific example of a small town in North Dakota, from when he served as the state’s governor, where a billion-dollar data center project ended up reducing costs for ratepayers by paying a premium to “buy down” the price households paid. It wasn’t immediately obvious which project he was referring to. But my best guess from some cursory research is that he may have meant the Applied Digital data center in Ellendale, along the southeastern border with South Dakota. In 2023, Prairie Public reported that the facility helped bring down transmission costs, reducing ratepayers’ bills by as much as $61 per year.
Burgum also suggested that Democrats were inflaming the data center issue for political gain. But opposition spans the political spectrum. Tom Steyer, the billionaire progressive running for governor of California, on Monday walked back a response to a candidate questionnaire published by Greenpeace, in which he said he supported a pause on data center development. In a statement to Politico, campaign spokesperson Kevin Liao said that while Steyer wants to ensure protections for electricity prices and water resources, he does not support a temporary ban.
It appears Elon Musk is more likely to follow through on his promise to build enough manufacturing capacity to churn out 100 gigawatts of solar panels in the U.S. than to sell 500,000 Cybertrucks a year. Tesla has selected a site just outside Houston for a new factory that will expand the company’s capacity to churn out panels in its home market. That’s according to Electrek, which said it had independently confirmed a tip from a source pointing the publication to the Brookshire, Texas, site. The plant will be co-located with a battery factory that is already under construction at the same site.
“Any level of commitment to onshore the entire supply chain is a positive sign for American solar manufacturing and supply chain security,” Yogin Kothari, the chief strategy officer at the SEMA Coalition trade group that advocates for U.S. solar manufacturers against cheap Chinese imports, told me in a text message Tuesday night. “We can make solar panels here — we just have to have the commitment to do it.”
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New Yorkers could receive $200 rebates from the state as part of Albany’s effort to soothe the pinch of rising electricity prices. On Tuesday, Newsday reported that the program would be part of the state budget agreement, which Democratic Governor Kathy Hochul and the Democrat-led legislature are still working to finalize. It wouldn’t be the first check the Hochul administration is sending out to voters as the former lieutenant governor, who initially came to power when former Governor Andrew Cuomo resigned over alleged sexual misconduct, runs for reelection in November. Last year, in a bid to combat the sting of inflation, the state issued rebates ranging from $150 to $400 depending on filing status and adjusted gross income in 2023.
Though it’s home to the world’s largest known reserves of lithium, landlocked Bolivia’s vast resources have largely remained undeveloped after two decades of rule by a left-wing government leery of foreign investment. The right-wing government that finally broke the Movimiento al Socialismo party’s grip on power in La Paz last year has sought to tap the so-called white gold in its salt flats, particularly as Washington looks for new sources of metals outside of supply chains China largely controls. New documents published Tuesday by the left-wing journalist Ollie Vargas appear to show the Bolivia’s Public Prosecutors Office’s warrants to arrest protesters and labor leaders connected to recent nationwide strikes on charges that include terrorism. “Bolivia’s government has ordered the arrest of all the main leaders of the indigenous movements and mineworkers unions,” Vargas wrote in a post on X. “They’re being charged for Terrorism for having organised the general strike against hunger. Strike continues regardless, now in day 7.” Clashes between law enforcement and protesters started last week.
China’s hydrogen industry is booming. Its sales of electrolyzers are beating out domestic manufacturers in Europe. Fuel cell vehicles are hitting the roads. Hydrogen refueling stations are opening. But the Chinese hydrogen sector with the highest volume of orders coming from overseas is for something simpler: Two-wheeled, hydrogen-powered motorcycles. That’s according to the latest China Hydrogen Bulletin, in which analyst Jian Wu reported from the 6th China International Consumer Products Expo on the island province of Hainan that a maker of the motorcycles had secured $300 million in overseas orders.
The maker of smart panels is tapping into unused grid capacity to help power the AI boom.
The race for artificial intelligence is a race for electricity. Data centers are scrambling to find enough power to run their servers, and when they do, they often face long waits while utilities upgrade the grid to accommodate the added demand.
In the eyes of Arch Rao, the CEO and founder of the smart electrical panel company Span, however, there is a glut of electricity waiting to be exploited. That’s because the electric grid is already oversized, designed to satisfy spikes in demand that occur for just a few hours each year. By shifting when and where different users consume power, it’s possible to squeeze far more juice out of the existing system, faster, and for a lot less money, than it takes to make it bigger.
This is what Span’s smart panel does — it manages the energy drawn by household appliances to help homeowners integrate electric vehicle chargers and heat pumps without triggering the need for electrical upgrades.
Now the age of AI has opened up new opportunities for the company. Last month, Span announced the launch of XFRA, a device that works with Span’s smart panel to power AI applications by tapping into the unused electrical capacity available to homes and businesses.
The company refers to XFRA as a “distributed data center.” It’s sort of like if you chopped up a full-scale data center into washing machine-sized boxes and plugged them into peoples’ homes; Span’s smart panel then acts as a conductor, orchestrating XFRA’s energy consumption to take advantage of unused power capacity without stepping on the home’s other energy needs. In exchange for hosting one of these XFRA “nodes,” Span will offer homeowners and tenants deeply discounted, if not free electricity and internet service.
The idea sounded audacious, verging on fantastical, until I watched the economics play out in real time at one of Span’s labs in a warehouse south of San Francisco. Ryan Harris, the company’s chief revenue officer, showed me an XFRA prototype — a metal box about the size of a freezer chest stuffed with Dell servers and Nvidia liquid-cooled GPUs. Span was renting out the processing power from this node and six others to AI users through an online marketplace. On a computer screen next to the unit, a dashboard showed the revenue flowing in from the fleet — $500 over the past 24 hours, and more than $21,000 in the previous three weeks. The numbers continued to tick up as I stood there.
When I first planned to write about Span, XFRA was still a secret. I reached out because its smart panel business, which debuted in 2019, seemed to suddenly take off.
In February, Span announced that PG&E, the largest utility in California, would be installing its devices in thousands of homes beginning this summer. Then in March, the company revealed a partnership with Eaton, one of the biggest legacy electrical equipment companies in the world. Eaton is investing $75 million in Span and will begin selling co-branded electrical panels to its extensive network of distributors, installers, and homebuilders later this year. With the launch of XFRA, Span is becoming something like a utility itself. To date, the company has raised more than $400 million, and will soon close a nearly $200 million Series C.
Of course it will take more than smart electrical panels to serve data centers’ soaring power needs. In this era of unprecedented energy demand growth, building a bigger electrical system is unavoidable — but the size of the investment, and the cost impacts on everyday electricity customers, are malleable. Several recent studies have shown just how big the opportunity is to get more energy out of our existing infrastructure if the entire system can become a bit more flexible.
Last year, Duke University researchers found that on average, the U.S. is utilizing only about half of our electricity generation capacity. Nationwide, they estimated, the grid could accommodate at least 76 gigawatts of new load — close to the total generation capacity installed in California — without having to upgrade the electrical system or build new power plants, so long as those new end-users were somewhat flexible with when and how much electricity they used.
More recently, in a report commissioned by a coalition called Utilize, of which Span is a member, the Brattle Group found that milking just 10% more from our existing grid infrastructure on an annual basis could reduce electricity rates for all end users by 3.4%. Utilities can sell more energy, faster, and spread the fixed costs of running the system across more customers.
What all this meant in practice did not fully click for me until I saw a demonstration of Span’s panel at the lab a few weeks ago. Harris, the CRO, led me to a free-standing wall lined with household appliances, a stripped-down version of an all-electric home. A minisplit heat pump whirred while a high-speed electric vehicle charger was juicing up a Rivian parked on the warehouse floor. A TV screen displayed the amount of power going to each device, as measured by Span’s electric panel.
Together, the heat pump and charger were using about two-thirds of the electric capacity of this demonstration home, which was running on a 100-amp utility service connection. The charger alone was using 48 amps.
The owner of this theoretical home would typically not have been allowed to install such an energy-intensive EV charger without upgrading to 200-amp service. Electric codes require that residential electrical systems have room for the rare scenario that a home’s major appliances all run at once, for safety reasons. Otherwise, the occupants might accidentally try to draw more power than their utility connection can deliver, overheat their wires, and start a fire. 100-amp connections are exceedingly common in homes designed to use gas or propane for cooking and heating, but once you replace those appliances with electric versions, or add an EV charger, you start to push the limit.
A service upgrade to 200 amps can take many months and cost several thousands of dollars. The utility typically has to run new wiring to the house, and might even have to augment the grid infrastructure serving the neighborhood.
Span’s smart panel offers an alternative.
“Shall we turn on some load?” Harris said. An engineer on Span’s product team turned on the demo home’s electric water heater, and I watched as the chart on the screen adjusted. The water heater jumped from zero to 22 amps, while the EV charger’s amperage decreased from 48 to 33. When the engineer switched on the clothes dryer, drawing 24 amps, the EV charger’s amperage dropped further.
The electrical panel was tracking how much power was flowing to each of its circuits and throttling the EV charger in response. When the team dialed up the electric stove to heat a pot of water, the EV charger shut off altogether.
Next, Harris requested a boost to the “garage” sub-panel, simulating a hot tub or some power tools kicking on. Soon, the water heater shut off, too. “You have 50 gallons of hot water, so it’s not going to have any negative impact on the customer in that moment,” Harris told me. He showed me an alert that appeared on the Span phone app notifying the homeowner that the system was temporarily limiting power to the EV charger and water heater in order to power other devices.
Users can choose which appliances the system bumps first. While some devices, such as EV chargers, water heaters, and heat pumps, have the ability to be ramped up and down, others will simply shut off.
At $2,550 excluding labor for the smallest, most basic smart panel, and just over $4,000 for the biggest one, Span is more expensive than the average dumb panel, which can come in under $1,000. Depending on the home and the complexity of a service upgrade, however, it’s often cheaper to install Span than to move to 200 amps. It’s also almost certainly faster.
Span’s first generation product couldn’t do any of this. Initially, the company’s value proposition was just to give people more control over their energy usage. The original Span panel gave homeowners with batteries the ability to select which devices they wanted to power during an outage and ensure they didn’t accidentally lose charge on non-essentials. The company had to build an initial customer base and validate the technology in the real world, Rao told me, before it could earn the credibility (and the capital) to deploy the fully realized version of the product.
In 2023, Span debuted “PowerUp,” the software that makes what I witnessed at the lab possible. With PowerUp, Span’s smart panel went from being a cool gadget to a money-saver, helping homeowners skip utility service upgrades. The success of PowerUp opened the door for Span to engage with larger partners, starting with homebuilders.
“We had to demonstrate that we were safe and scalable in the home retrofit category to then get homebuilders — who are typically very, very cost sensitive, are not often at the tip of the spear in terms of technology adoption — to say, this is a proven technology, and it saves you money,” said Rao.
Residential developers face similar problems as homeowners, but on a bigger scale. While 200-amp connections have become more standard over the past few decades, new electrical codes that require either fully electric or electric-ready construction are pushing the limits.
“Now the load calculations will put them at 300 or 400 amps of service per home,” Rao told me. “Multiply that by a community of 500 homes, and suddenly you’ve doubled the amount of interconnection you need to bring from the utility.”
This raises the cost of development, and it can also increase the wait time — potentially by years — to get hooked up to the grid. Again, Span offers an alternative. To date, nearly half of the top 20 homebuilders across the U.S. have used the company’s technology, Rao told me. More broadly, its electrical panels have been installed in tens of thousands of homes in all 50 states.
I should note that Span is not the only solution on the market for homeowners or homebuilders to avoid service upgrades — the main alternative is just choosing appliances that don’t use so much power. There are water heaters, clothes dryers, and EV chargers on the market that run on lower amperage, and startups like Copper and Impulse Labs are making stoves with integrated batteries that enable them to do the same. There are also Span-adjacent technologies such as smart circuit splitters that let you plug two power-hungry devices, like an EV charger and a clothes dryer, into the same circuit, and the device will safely modulate power between the two.
“You can hack your way around both problems — one, of a panel upgrade, and two, a Span upgrade, which is also expensive — with cheaper solutions,” Brian Stewart, the co-founder of Electrify Now, a group that provides education and advocacy on home electrification, told me. “But it’s less elegant, let’s just say, than the Span solution.”
Though he started at the home level, Rao has always had his sights set on a much bigger customer — utilities. Several Span executives I spoke to referenced an “infamous” Powerpoint slide from the early days of the company with a bar chart that showed how the company would scale in three phases. First came “back-up,” referring to Span’s initial home battery management product. Next was “power-up,” the software that enabled electrification by avoiding service upgrades. The third was “fleet.”
The same safety principles that trigger service upgrades at individual homes also apply upstream at the neighborhood level. For example, the size of a neighborhood’s transformer, the equipment that changes the voltage of the electricity as it moves along the grid, depends on the combined amperage of the homes it serves. If all those homes are installing EV chargers or heat pumps or whatever else and starting to use more electricity, the utility will have to upgrade the transformer — a cost that gets spread across all of its customers. If a critical mass of the homes have Span panels, however, they can avoid this.
Partnering with major homebuilders earned Span “the right to sit at the table with utilities,” Rao told me, “and say, look, we’ve done this at the home level, at the community level. Imagine if you could do this at the grid level, where the benefit doesn’t just accrue to individual customers or home builders, it can accrue to all rate payers?”
I got a taste of what this looks like back at the lab, where Harris showed me Span’s “fleet capability.” There were actually three demonstration homes set up on the warehouse floor, and Harris showed me how a utility could coordinate a response across multiple Span panels to keep a neighborhood within its safe energy limits.
Imagine it’s a really hot day, and the utility is on the verge of having to institute rolling blackouts. Instead, it can implement what’s called a dynamic service rating event, sending a signal out to the Span panels served by a given transformer to reduce their electrical limit from 100 amps to 60, for example. Rather than the entire neighborhood losing power, a few homes would see their EV charging cut back or their thermostats go up by a few degrees. Of course, not everybody will want to give this kind of control to the utility; customers often cite concerns about comfort and convenience as reasons they are skeptical of these kinds of programs. When I asked Harris whether participating would require that Span customers opt in, he said it was more likely to be opt-out.
Span has done several pilot projects testing this capability. Installing electrical panels is too complex for utilities to do en masse, though. So the company developed Span Edge, a smaller version of its panel that can be installed at a building’s electricity meter. It does all the same things the larger electrical panel does, without needing to serve as the home’s central nervous system. It still enables homeowners to avoid service upgrades by throttling EV chargers or whatever other devices are hooked up to it, but it’s much simpler to install.
This is the device that the California utility PG&E will begin deploying in homes later this summer. The company will offer Span Edge to homeowners who are installing appliances that might trigger an electrical upgrade, or are considering doing so in the future, through a program called PanelBoost. It’s entirely voluntary, and while participants will have to pay for installation, the panel itself comes gratis.
“This is the first time that there’s a large-scale direct purchase of Span equipment by a utility,” Alex Pratt, Span’s vice president of business development, told me. “This has long been the North Star for the company.”
Paul Doherty, the manager for clean energy and innovation communications at PG&E, told me the company saw Span Edge as a “win, win, win for PG&E, for our customers, and for the environment.” It enables customers to electrify their homes more quickly and affordably, and for PG&E to sell more electrons without raising rates.
“We’re very bullish about the opportunity for this technology and the benefit that it will bring for the grid and for our customers here in California,” Doherty told me.
Rao sees XFRA as a natural evolution of Span’s basic premise. The company has found that 98% of its customers that have 200-amp service connections have about 80 amps available at any given time, Harris told me. Hosting an XFRA node enables homeowners to monetize that unused capacity.
To start, Span is prioritizing getting XFRA into newly built homes, where the developer handles customer acquisition and installing at scale is straightforward since every home is roughly the same. The company has partnered with the developer PulteGroup to roll out a 100-home pilot program for a total of over 1.2 megawatts of compute capacity. The partners have not specified where it will be yet or whether there will be a single offtaker for the compute.
In the longer term, Rao told me, XFRA could be the “unlock” that makes electrification more affordable for people. “There is a utopian end state in my mind where XFRA allows more of our customers to get free energy, free backup, and free internet,” he said.
First, the company will have to find out if anyone is actually willing to let XFRA into their home. During my final conversation with the CEO, after my lab visit, he showed me the infamous slide forecasting the company’s growth from “back-up to power-up to fleet.” The y-axis on the chart showed the number of homes per year the company could address at each stage. The bar for back-up systems landed at 5,000 per year, Power-up came to nearly 100,000. Suffice it to say, Span hasn’t hit these numbers.
“Are you where you want to be today?” I asked him.
Of course, he wasn’t going to say no. “We have contracts in place for hundreds of thousands of homes already with utilities,” he said. “Right now our focus is on execution — delivering on that scale, as opposed to finding that scale. It’s a deployed product, it’s not a downloadable app, so it takes time to physically deploy hundreds of thousands of endpoints. So I think that scale is coming.”
After years of dithering, the world’s biggest automaker is finally in the game.
The hottest contest in the electric car industry right now may be the race for third place.
Thanks to Tesla’s longtime supremacy (at least in this country), its two mainstays — the Model Y and Model 3 — sit comfortably atop the monthly list of best-selling EVs. Movement in the No. 3 spot, then, has become a signal for success from the automakers attempting to go electric. The original Chevy Bolt once occupied this position thanks to its band of diehard fans. Last year, the brand’s affordable Equinox EV grabbed third. And then, earlier this year, an unexpected car took over that spot on the leaderboard: the Toyota bZ.
The surprise is not so much the car itself, but rather its maker. Over the years, we’ve called out Toyota numerous times for dragging its feet about electric cars. The world’s largest automaker took the hybrid mainstream and still produces the hydrogen-powered Mirai. Nevertheless, Toyota publicly cast doubt about the viability of fully electric cars on several occasions and let other legacy car companies take the lead. Its first true EV, the bZ4X, was a disappointment, with driving range and power figures that lagged behind the rest of the industry.
Suddenly, though, the Toyota narrative looks different. Working at its trademark deliberate pace, the auto giant is revealing a batch of new EVs this year, just as competitors Ford, GM, Honda, and Hyundai-Kia are pulling back on their electric lines (and writing off billions of dollars to tilt their companies back toward fossil fuels). There is the Toyota bZ, which Car and Driver called “quicker, nicer inside, and better at being an EV” than the bZ4X, its predecessor. There is the C-HR, a small crossover that had been gas-powered before it became fully electric this year. And there is the large Highlander SUV, a popular nameplate that’s about to become EV-only.
To see what’s changed with the cars themselves, I test-drove the C-HR last week. A decade ago, I’d taken its gas-powered predecessor on a road trip down Long Island and found it to be a fun but frustrating vehicle. Toyota went way over the top with the exterior styling back then to make the little car scream “youthful,” but under the hood was a woefully underpowered engine that took about 11 seconds to push the C-HR from 0 to 60 miles per hour. Now, thanks to the instant torque of electric motors, the new version finally has the zip to go with its looks: It’ll get to 60 in under five seconds, and feels plenty zoomy just driving around town.
Inside, C-HR feels like an evolved Toyota that isn’t trying too hard to be a Tesla. The brand took the two-touchscreen approach, with a large one in the center console to handle main functions such as navigation, entertainment, and climate control, and a smaller one in front of the driver’s eyes where the traditional dashboard would be. There are still physical buttons on the wheel to manipulate music volume and cruise control, but climate controls are entirely digital.
The big touchscreen is a work in progress. It’s too crowded with information compared to a clean overlay like Tesla’s or Rivian’s, and the design of the navigation software had some profound flaws. (Whether you’re using the voice assistant or keyboard input to search for a destination, the system lags a troubling amount for a brand-new car. Maybe Toyota just expects you to use Apple CarPlay and ignore its built-in system.) Still, the interface is more iPhone-like and intuitive than what Hyundai and Kia are using in their EVs.
Here’s the real problem with the C-HR: Although it accomplishes the mission of feeling like a fun-to-drive Toyota that happens to be electric, it’s not terribly good at being an electric car. The Toyota lacks one-pedal driving, the delightful feature where the car slows itself as soon as you let off the accelerator, negating the need to move your foot between two pedals all time. Nor does it have a front trunk, a.k.a. frunk, the fun bonus on EVs made possible by the absence of an engine. According to Toyota, the C-HR is so small that engineers simply didn’t have room for a frunk (or a glovebox, for that matter).
The C-HR’s NACS charging port makes it possible to use Tesla Superchargers, and its charging port location on the passenger’s side front should make it simple to reach them. But instead of sitting on the corner of the car, easily reachable by a plug right in front of the parked vehicle, the port is several feet back, just behind the front wheel. And its door opens toward the charger, so the cord has to reach over or under the door that’s in the way. I made it work at a Supercharger in greater San Diego, but only after several frustrating tries and with less than an inch of cord to spare.
Those are the complaints of a longtime EV driver, and they might not matter to some C-HR buyers. The deepest oversight is the C-HR’s nav, which, at least right now, doesn’t have compatible charging stations built into its route planning — a warning message will notify you if the chosen route requires recharging to reach the final destination, but the car won’t tell you where to go. This is a glaring omission for potential buyers who’ll be taking their first EV road trip. (Get PlugShare, folks.) Planned charging is effectively an industry standard — even Toyota’s legacy competitors like Chevy and Hyundai will choose appropriate fast-chargers and route you to them, even if their interface isn’t as seamless and satisfying as what’s in a Tesla or Rivian. At least that’s a problem that could be solved later via software update, though.
Because of these faults, it’s difficult to imagine someone choosing this as their second or third EV. But maybe that’s not the game at all. There is a legion of Toyota drivers out there, many of whom might think about buying their first electric car if their brand built one. Despite its flaws, the C-HR is that. It’s got enough range for city living and occasional road trips, enough power to be fun to drive, and a Toyota badge on the hood.
Whatever their quirks, the very existence of the C-HR and its electric stablemates is a testament to Toyota’s plan to play the long game with EVs rather than ebb and flow with every whipsaw turn in the American car market. And they’re here just in time. Amidst volatile oil prices because of the Iran war, drivers worldwide are more interested in going electric.
In the U.S., that interest has buoyed used EV sales — not new — because so few affordable options are on the market. Although C-HR starts near $38,000, Toyota has begun to offer discounts that would bring it in line with gas-powered crossovers that are $5,000 cheaper. Maybe that’ll be enough for the subcompact to join its bigger sibling, the bZ, on that list of best-sellers.