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It’s the first project to turn steel-related emissions into products. But can it scale?

Last week, the Department of Energy announced $6 billion in awards to help clean up some of the most greenhouse gas-intensive industries in the U.S., including $1.5 billion to transform iron and steel manufacturing. U.S. Steel, one of the biggest American steelmakers, was not among the recipients.
On Wednesday, U.S. Steel made an announcement of its own: It is signing a 20-year agreement with CarbonFree, a Texas-based company, to capture carbon dioxide from Gary Works, the largest integrated steel mill in the country, and turn it into a marketable product. The $150 million project is the first to capture and utilize carbon from an American steel plant at a commercial scale.
Gary Works releases an ungodly amount of carbon into the air each year — more than the entire state of Vermont. CarbonFree will use its technology, known as SkyCycle, to collect 50,000 tons of CO2 from the plant per year and transform it into high grade calcium carbonate, a valuable ingredient for the food, pharmaceuticals, paint, and plastics industries.
Something certainly has to change if U.S. Steel is going to make good on its pledge of achieving net-zero emissions by 2050, let alone stay competitive in a market that’s expected to increasingly look for greener products. It’s unclear, however, whom the company is going to convince with this project, which will capture less than 1% of the plant’s annual emissions.
“It’s deeply unserious, I think, is the words that come to mind,” Hilary Lewis, the steel director at Industrious Labs, a nonprofit that advocates for decarbonizing heavy industry, told me. The effort is especially embarrassing, she said, given that two of the company’s competitors, SSAB and Cleveland Cliffs, were awarded $500 million each by the DOE for far more transformative green steel projects. “This announcement is emblematic of how U.S. Steel is a laggard.”
U.S. Steel declined to make any of its executives available to interview for this story. In response to my request for comment, the company provided a statement that said this was a first of its kind opportunity to “significantly reduce” emissions at Gary Works, and that it was “the first step in exploring the scalability of this technology” to support the company’s goals.
CarbonFree executives, too, asserted that the Gary Works project is a stepping stone to something bigger. But outside experts I spoke with were skeptical that it would be able to scale enough to make a meaningful difference in the plant’s — or the industry’s — emissions.
The steel industry contributes about 8% of global energy-related emissions. Though the U.S. is not one of the worst offenders (we actually make some of the cleanest steel in the world) U.S. steelmakers still have a long, expensive journey ahead to decarbonize.
That’s because there are eight steel plants in the U.S. that still use blast furnaces, a dirty, coal-intensive production method. Gary Works is one of them. Though these plants only represent about 30% of the country’s steel production, they are responsible for nearly 70% of the sector’s emissions, according to the Department of Energy.
The advantage of the SkyCycle project is that it doesn’t require U.S. Steel to do very much. “We build, own, and operate the [carbon capture equipment], and we’re able to get a return based on the chemicals we sell,” Martin Keighley, the CEO of CarbonFree, told me. “So it’s a much more attractive proposition for, in this case, U.S. Steel, because they don't have to invest large amounts of money into the plant.” More attractive than at least one alternative, that is, which is to capture the carbon and sequester it underground.
It’s a compelling argument. Carbon capture and storage adds big costs — to install the equipment, transport the CO2, and pump it into the bedrock — with no financial benefit to manufacturers. While the federal government does encourage carbon capture by offering an $85 federal tax credit for every ton of CO2 captured and stored, no law compels steel companies to do so. In many cases, the subsidy may not be not enough to get investors on board for a project, especially since tax credits can come and go depending on the whims of Congress.
But if you find someone else who can take your carbon and make money off of it, then what have you got to lose? Keighley said CarbonFree will be able to earn a slightly smaller federal tax credit — $60 — for every ton of carbon it turns into calcium carbonate, but that the company’s business model doesn’t depend on that.
“You know, we all look at 2050 and net zero, but it doesn't stop there. To be net zero, we’re still emitting CO2, so we still have to capture it,” he said, referring to the idea that the “net” in net zero implies there will continue to be emissions that must be neutralized. “We're going to be capturing forever. So, therefore, we need sustainable business models that aren’t reliant on government sources.”
One advantage of SkyCycle over other carbon capture technologies is that it works with raw, dirty flue gas, which might have all kinds of other gases and chemicals mixed in with the CO2. The gas is channeled through a series of chemical reactions and eventually reacts with calcium, a mineral that’s notoriously thirsty for CO2, to create calcium carbonate. Once it binds with calcium, the CO2 is essentially locked up permanently. It would take either very high heat or a very strong acid to remove it.
Keighley said the high grade calcium carbonate on the market today has much greater emissions associated with its production than CarbonFree’s process, and is about the same price. That creates a “multiplier effect,” he told me. Not only is the company reducing emissions from the Gary Works plant, it’s also reducing emissions associated with the products that incorporate the cleaner calcium carbonate. On top of that, the company is sourcing its calcium from steel slag, a waste product from the steelmaking process that nobody has really figured out what to do with. (This is different from blast furnace slag, which is valuable for decarbonizing the cement industry as a replacement for carbon-intensive “clinker.”)
So far, so good. But the issue, according to Rebecca Dell, a former Department of Energy analyst and senior director of industry at the ClimateWorks Foundation, is that the market for high grade calcium carbonate is tiny. “You’re gonna saturate these high end markets way before you get anywhere close to absorbing the full 8 or 9 million tons a year of CO2 that just the Gary Works is emitting,” she told me.
When I raised this with Keighley, he acknowledged that the market was limited. But he said the market for calcium carbonate in general, not just the high purity stuff, is much bigger, and that the company could move into other segments later. CarbonFree is already working on its next system, which will be capable of capturing 250,000 tons of CO2 per year. Calcium carbonate is essentially limestone, which is an abundant and cheap material, so it might be hard to compete in lower-grade markets without bringing down production costs. But Keighley mentioned another plan. “The beauty is, if and when you run out of market altogether, you store it,” he told me. In other words, the company could just stash the calcium carbonate on the grounds of the Gary Works plant. That assumes, however, that they’ve brought down their costs enough to make a profit off the federal tax credit for carbon storage — and that assumes the tax credit still exists.
Lewis, of Industrious Labs, raised a different issue. “If you’re choosing to invest in carbon capture, you're locking in that reliance on coal for another 15, 20 years,” she told me. Carbon capture doesn’t address the other health-harming pollutants these steel mills rain over their surrounding community, including nitrous oxides, sulfur dioxide, and soot. She also noted that the biggest consumer of the types of steel produced by blast furnaces, the auto industry, has ambitious climate targets. While automakers have yet to make truly market-transforming commitments to buy cleaner steel, if and when they do, Gary Works could be left unprepared, threatening the job security of its more than 4,000 workers.
U.S. Steel’s plan is a stark contrast to one of the projects awarded funding by the DOE last week, Lewis said. Cleveland Cliffs, which owns five of the remaining seven blast furnace steel mills, will get $500 million to replace one of its blast furnaces at a mill in Ohio with what’s called a “direct reduced iron” plant. Direct reduction is more efficient, cleaner, and cheaper than a blast furnace; the company said it would save $150 per ton of steel produced by making the switch. Though some direct reduction plants rely on natural gas, and therefore aren’t exactly carbon-free, the process can also be done with green hydrogen. That’s what a second project announced last week, led by the Swedish steelmaker SSAB, will be using at a new plant in Mississippi.
In my interview with Keighley, I asked what he thought about the criticism that this project would keep Gary Works hooked on coal for another 20 years, and that advocates wanted to see the plant transition to direct reduction. He responded by raising questions about green hydrogen. Producing green hydrogen requires lots of renewable energy, he said. Is that the best use of that renewable energy, or could you “get more decarbonization for your buck” by using it for something else?
Later, in an email, Keighley also pointed to SkyCycle’s readiness for deployment compared to the long development timelines for other solutions. Construction is expected to start as early as summer 2024, with operations beginning in 2026. He also emphasized that CarbonFree would be able to “easily” increase the size of the plant. “There’s so many different options and everyone’s trying to second guess everybody else. Just get on with doing something, you know?”
But Chris Bataille, a research fellow at the Columbia University Center on Global Energy Policy who focuses on pathways to net-zero for heavy industry, told me the tiny scope of this project is indicative of a larger issue. “These marginal changes are attractive to people who are just used to running a blast furnace their whole careers,” he said. “You can keep the rest of your plant, but that piece of equipment needs to change.”
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Citrine Informatics has been applying machine learning to materials discovery for years. Now more advanced models are giving the tech a big boost.
When ChatGPT launched three years ago, it became abundantly clear that the power of generative artificial intelligence had the capacity to extend far beyond clever chatbots. Companies raised huge amounts of funding based on the idea that this new, more powerful AI could solve fundamental problems in science and medicine — design new proteins, discover breakthrough drugs, or invent new battery chemistries.
Citrine Informatics, however, has largely kept its head down. The startup was founded long before the AI boom, back in 2013, with the intention of using simple old machine learning to speed up the development of more advanced, sustainable materials. These days Citrine is doing the same thing, but with neural networks and transformers, the architecture that undergirds the generative AI revolution.
“The technology transition we’re going through right now is pretty massive,” Greg Mulholland, Citrine’s founder and CEO, told me. “But the core underlying goal of the company is still the same: help scientists identify the experiments that will get them to their material outcome as fast as possible.”
Rather than developing its own novel materials, Citrine operates on a software-as-a-service model, selling its platform to companies including Rolls-Royce, EMD Electronics, and chemicals giant LyondellBassell. While a SaaS product may be less glamorous than independently discovering a breakthrough compound that enables something like a room-temperature superconductor or an ultra-high-density battery, Citrine’s approach has already surfaced commercially relevant materials across a variety of sectors, while the boldest promises of generative AI for science remain distant dreams.
“You can think of it as science versus engineering,” Mulholland told me. “A lot of science is being done. Citrine is definitely the best in kind of taking it to the engineering level and coming to a product outcome rather than a scientific discovery.” Citrine has helped to develop everything from bio-based lotion ingredients to replace petrochemical-derived ones, to plastic-free detergents, to more sustainable fire-resistant home insulation, to PFAS-free food packaging, to UV-resistant paints.
On Wednesday, the company unveiled two new platform capabilities that it says will take its approach to the next level. The first is essentially an advanced LLM-powered filing system that organizes and structures unwieldy materials and chemicals datasets from across a company. The second is an AI framework informed by an extensive repository of chemistry, physics, and materials knowledge. It can ingest a company’s existing data, and, even if the overall volume is small, use it to create a list of hundreds of potential new materials optimized for factors such as sustainability, durability, weight, manufacturability, or whatever other outcomes the company is targeting.
The platform is neither purely generative nor purely predictive. Instead, Mulholland explained, companies can choose to use Citrine’s tools “in a more generative mode” if they want to explore broadly and open up the field of possible materials discoveries, or in a more “optimized” mode that stays narrowly focused on the parameters they set. “What we find is you need a healthy blend of the two,” he told me.
The novel compounds the model spits out still need to be synthesized and tested by humans. “What I tell people is, any plane made of materials designed exclusively by Citrine and never tested is not a plane I’m getting on,” Mulholland told me. The goal isn’t to achieve perfection right out of the lab, but rather to optimize the experiments companies end up having to do. “We still need to prove materials in the real world, because the real world will complicate it.”
Indeed it will. For one thing, while AI is capable of churning out millions of hypothetical materials — as a tool developed by Google DeepMind did in 2023 — materials scientists have since shown that many are just variants of known compounds, while others are unstable, unable to be synthesized, or otherwise irrelevant under real world conditions.
Such failures likely stem, in part, from another common limitation of AI models trained solely on publicly available materials and chemicals data: Academic research tends to report only successful outcomes, omitting data on what didn’t work and which compounds weren’t viable. That can lead models to be overly optimistic about the magnitude and potential of possible materials solutions and generate unrealistic “discoveries” that may have already been tested and rejected.
Because Citrine’s platform is deployed within customer organizations, it can largely sidestep this problem by tuning its model on niche, proprietary datasets. These datasets are small when compared with the vast public repositories used to train Citrine’s base model, but the granular information they contain about prior experiments — both successes and failures — has proven critical to bringing new discoveries to market.
While the holy grail for materials science may be a model trained on all the world’s relevant data — public and private, positive and negative — at this point that’s just a fantasy, one of Citrine’s investors, Mark Cupta of Prelude Ventures, told me over email. “It’s hard to get buy-in from the entire material development world to make an open-source model that pulls in data from across the field.”
Citrine’s last raise, which Prelude co-led, came at the very beginning of 2023, as the AI wave was still gathering momentum. But Mulholland said there’s no rush to raise additional capital — in fact, he expects Citrine to turn a profit in the next year or so.
That milestone would strongly validate the company’s strategy, which banks on steady revenue from its subscription-based model to compensate for the fact that it doesn’t own the intellectual property for the materials it helps develop. While Mulholland told me that many players in this space are trying to “invent new materials and patent them and try to sell them like drugs,” Citriene is able to “invent things much more quickly, in a more realistic way than the pie in the sky, hoping for a Nobel Prize [approach].”
Citrines is also careful to assure that its model accounts for real world constraints such as regulations and production bottlenecks. Say a materials company is creating an aluminum alloy for an automaker, Mulholland explained — it might be critical to stay within certain elemental bounds. If the company were to add in novel elements, the automaker would likely want to put its new compound through a rigorous testing process, which would be annoying if it’s looking to get to market as quickly as possible. Better, perhaps, to tinker around the edges of what’s well understood.
In fact, Mulholland told me it’s often these marginal improvements that initially bring customers into the fold, convincing them that this whole AI-for-materials thing is more than just hype. “The first project is almost always like, make the adhesive a little bit stickier — because that’s a good way to prove to these skeptical scientists that AI is real and here to stay,” he said. “And then they use that as justification to invest further and further back in their product development pipeline, such that their whole product portfolio can be optimized by AI.”
Overall, the company says that its new framework can speed up materials development by 80%. So while Mulholland and Citrine overall may not be going for the Nobel in Chemistry, don’t doubt for a second that they’re trying to lead a fundamental shift in the way consumer products are designed.
“I’m as bullish as I can possibly be on AI in science,” Mulholland told me. “It is the most exciting time to be a scientist since Newton. But I think that the gap between scientific discovery and realized business is much larger than a lot of AI folks think.”
Plus more insights from Heatmap’s latest event Washington, D.C.
At Heatmap’s event, “Supercharging the Grid,” two members of the House of Representatives — a California Democrat and a Colorado Republican — talked about their shared political fight to loosen implementation of the National Environmental Policy Act to accelerate energy deployment.
Representatives Gabe Evans and Scott Peters spoke with Heatmap’s Robinson Meyer at the Washington, D.C., gathering about how permitting reform is faring in Congress.
“The game in the 1970s was to stop things, but if you’re a climate activist now, the game is to build things,” said Peters, who worked as an environmental lawyer for many years. “My proposal is, get out of the way of everything and we win. Renewables win. And NEPA is a big delay.”
NEPA requires that the federal government review the environmental implications of its actions before finalizing them, permitting decisions included. The 50-year-old environmental law has already undergone several rounds of reform, including efforts under both Presidents Biden and Trump to remove redundancies and reduce the size and scope of environmental analyses conducted under the law. But bottlenecks remain — completing the highest level of review under the law still takes four-and-a-half years, on average. Just before Thanksgiving, the House Committee on Natural Resources advanced the SPEED Act, which aims to ease that congestion by creating shortcuts for environmental reviews, limiting judicial review of the final assessments, and preventing current and future presidents from arbitrarily rescinding permits, subject to certain exceptions.
Evans framed the problem in terms of keeping up with countries like China on building energy infrastructure. “I’ve seen how other parts of the world produce energy, produce other things,” said Evans. “We build things cleaner and more responsibly here than really anywhere else on the planet.”
Both representatives agreed that the SPEED Act on its own wouldn’t solve all the United States’ energy issues. Peters hinted at other permitting legislation in the works.
“We want to take that SPEED Act on the NEPA reform and marry it with specific energy reforms, including transmission,” said Peters.
Next, Neil Chatterjee, a former Commissioner of the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, explained to Rob another regulatory change that could affect the pace of energy infrastructure buildout: a directive from the Department of Energy to FERC to come up with better ways of connecting large new sources of electricity demand — i.e. data centers — to the grid.
“This issue is all about data centers and AI, but it goes beyond data centers and AI,” said Chatterjee. “It deals with all of the pressures that we are seeing in terms of demand from the grid from cloud computing and quantum computing, streaming services, crypto and Bitcoin mining, reshoring of manufacturing, vehicle electrification, building electrification, semiconductor manufacturing.”
Chatterjee argued that navigating load growth to support AI data centers should be a bipartisan issue. He expressed hope that AI could help bridge the partisan divide.
“We have become mired in this politics of, if you’re for fossil fuels, you are of the political right. If you’re for clean energy and climate solutions, you’re the political left,” he said. “I think AI is going to be the thing that busts us out of it.”
Updating and upgrading the grid to accommodate data centers has grown more urgent in the face of drastically rising electricity demand projections.
Marsden Hanna, Google’s head of energy and dust policy, told Heatmap’s Jillian Goodman that the company is eyeing transmission technology to connect its own data centers to the grid faster.
“We looked at advanced transition technologies, high performance conductors,” said Hanna. “We see that really as just an incredibly rapid, no-brainer opportunity.”
Advanced transmission technologies, otherwise known as ATTs, could help expand the existing grid’s capacity, freeing up space for some of the load growth that economy-wide electrification and data centers would require. Building new transmission lines, however, requires permits — the central issue that panelists kept returning to throughout the event.
Devin Hartman, director of energy and environmental policy at the R Street Institute, told Jillian that investors are nervous that already-approved permits could be revoked — something the solar industry has struggled with under the Trump administration.
“Half the battle now is not just getting the permits on time and getting projects to break ground,” said Hartman. “It’s also permitting permanence.”
This event was made possible by the American Council on Renewable Energy’s Macro Grid Initiative.
On gas turbine backorders, Europe’s not-so-green deal, and Iranian cloud seeding
Current conditions: Up to 10 inches of rain in the Cascades threatens mudslides, particularly in areas where wildfires denuded the landscape of the trees whose roots once held soil in place • South Africa has issued extreme fire warnings for Northern Cape, Western Cape, and Eastern Cape • Still roiling from last week’s failed attempt at a military coup, Benin’s capital of Cotonou is in the midst of a streak of days with temperatures over 90 degrees Fahrenheit and no end in sight.

Exxon Mobil Corp. plans to cut planned spending on low-carbon projects by a third, joining much of the rest of its industry in refocusing on fossil fuels. The nation’s largest oil producer said it would increase its earnings and cash flow by $5 billion by 2030. The company projected earnings to grow by 13% each year without any increase in capital spending. But the upstream division, which includes exploration and production, is expected to bring in $14 billion in earnings growth compared to 2024. The key projects The Wall Street Journal listed in the Permian Basin, Guyana and at liquified natural gas sites would total $4 billion in earnings growth alone over the next five years. The announcement came a day before the Department of the Interior auctioned off $279 million of leases across 80 million acres of federal waters in the Gulf of Mexico.
Speaking of oil and water, early Wednesday U.S. armed forces seized an oil tanker off the coast of Venezuela in what The New York Times called “a dramatic escalation in President Trump’s pressure campaign against Nicolás Maduro.” When asked what would become of the vessel's oil, Trump said at the White House, “Well, we keep it, I guess.”
The Federal Reserve slashed its key benchmark interest rate for the third time this year. The 0.25 percentage point cut was meant to calibrate the borrowing costs to stay within a range between 3.5% and 3.75%. The 9-3 vote by the central bank’s board of governors amounted to what Wall Street calls a hawkish cut, a move to prop up a cooling labor market while signaling strong concerns about future downward adjustments that’s considered so rare CNBC previously questioned whether it could be real. But it’s good news for clean energy. As Heatmap’s Matthew Zeitlin wrote after the September rate cut, lower borrowing costs “may provide some relief to renewables developers and investors, who are especially sensitive to financing costs.” But it likely isn’t enough to wipe out the effects of Trump’s tariffs and tax credit phaseouts.
GE Vernova plans to increase its capacity to manufacture gas turbines by 20 gigawatts once assembly line expansions are completed in the middle of next year. But in a presentation to investors this week, the company said it’s already sold out of new gas turbines all the way through 2028, and has less than 10 gigawatts of equipment left to sell for 2029. It’s no wonder supersonic jet startups, as I wrote about in yesterday’s newsletter, are now eyeing a near-term windfall by getting into the gas turbine business.
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The European Union will free more than 80% of the companies from environmental reporting rules under a deal struck this week. The agreement between EU institutions marks what Politico Europe called a “major legislative victory” for European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, who has sought to make the bloc more economically self-sufficient by cutting red tape for business in her second term in office. The rollback is also a win for Trump, whose administration heavily criticized the EU’s green rules. It’s also a victory for the U.S. president’s far-right allies in Europe. The deal fractured the coalition that got the German politician reelected to the EU’s top job, forcing her center-right faction to team up with the far right to win enough votes for secure victory.
Ravaged by drought, Iran is carrying out cloud-seeding operations in a bid to increase rainfall amid what the Financial Times clocked as “the worst water crisis in six decades.” On Tuesday, Abbas Aliabadi, the energy minister, said the country had begun a fresh round of injecting crystals into clouds using planes, drones, and ground-based launchers. The country has even started developing drones specifically tailored to cloud seeding.
The effort comes just weeks after the Islamic Republic announced that it “no longer has a choice” but to move its capital city as ongoing strain on water supplies and land causes Tehran to sink by nearly one foot per year. As I wrote in this newsletter, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian called the situation a “catastrophe” and “a dark future.”
The end of suburban kids whiffing diesel exhaust in the back of stuffy, rumbling old yellow school buses is nigh. The battery-powered bus startup Highland Electric Fleets just raised $150 million in an equity round from Aiga Capital Partners to deploy its fleets of buses and trucks across the U.S., Axios reported. In a press release, the company said its vehicles would hit the streets by next year.