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A Tale of Two Energy Shocks

Rob hosts a Heatmap roundtable about Iran, Ukraine, long-duration batteries, seabed mining, and more.

A gas station.
Heatmap Illustration/Getty Images

We’re watching a new global energy crisis unfold in the wake of America and Israel’s campaign in Iran — and it could rapidly spiral into other industries and commodities. At the same time, there’s been legitimately promising news on iron-air batteries, suggesting the cheap and long-term energy storage technology might be ready for take-off.

Rob is joined by Heatmap staff writers Matthew Zeitlin and Katie Brigham, as well as Heatmap’s deputy editor Jillian Goodman, to discuss the busy news week. They discuss whether we’re looking at two different (but linked) energy crises, gauge how insulated the U.S. economy actually is, and share which energy news stories have gotten lost in the shuffle.

Shift Key is hosted by Robinson Meyer, the founding executive editor of Heatmap News.

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Here is an excerpt from their conversation:

Robinson Meyer: As I’ve been thinking about this story, I hadn’t realized, Matt, the degree to which the two most volatile commodity prices are affected by this, in that this is now both an energy inflation story and a food inflation story because of fertilizer. I think as I’ve been thinking about this domestically, because of how the U.S. plugs into the global economy and because U.S. liquified natural gas export is basically already running at full bore — we’re exporting it basically as much natural gas as we can with the system that we have, which means that there’s not a ton of passthrough that could happen into our domestic natural gas prices — we’re kind of looking at a system — and you should correct me if this is wrong, but as I think through what, politically, the ramifications of the war are, at least as far as energy goes, obviously, this is globally going to be a gas and fertilizer story and energy security story.

Domestically, this is probably far more likely to be an oil price story. You know, gas prices now are like at $3.25 nationally. They could very well be higher by the time we release the episode. Conventional wisdom is that gas prices don’t really matter until they get above $3.50. It’s nice to have them for a president below $3, and it’s bad to have them above $4. And so they were previously, the U.S. average was right below $3. Now it’s like $3.25. It’s gone up $0.25 in just a few days. And so as I think about what are the constraints on the Trump administration’s economic policymaking? What are the constraints on the president’s decision-making insofar as he feels any constraints from the economy? Domestically, it’s far more of an oil story than it is a gas story.

Matthew Zeitlin: Yeah. I mean, domestically, to the extent that the natural gas matters at all, it’s good for the United States. Some of these cargoes will be more expensive that we’re able to sell, which will, you know, improve the terms of trade for the U.S., and will probably make it so, you know, construction workers will have to spend less time at casinos in Lake Charles and have to spend more time finishing up these projects that are supposed to be online this month. Yeah, I mean, gas prices are — gasoline prices, sorry, do feed in, are kind of more twitchy and responsive to the global economy.

You can find a full transcript of the episode here.

Mentioned:

From Heatmap: Oil Is Surging. Clean Energy Stocks Are Down Anyway.

From Heatmap: War With Iran Isn’t Just an Oil Story

From Heatmap: Inside Form Energy’s Big Google Data Center Deal

BlackRock and other infrastructure investors are buying AES for $10.7 billion

The fate of New York’s climate law is in doubt

Luckin Coffee to buy Blue Bottle Coffee

This episode of Shift Key is sponsored by …

Accelerate your clean energy career with Yale’s online certificate programs. Explore the 10-month Financing and Deploying Clean Energy program or the 5-month Clean and Equitable Energy Development program. Use referral code HeatMap26 and get your application in by the priority deadline for $500 off tuition to one of Yale’s online certificate programs in clean energy. Learn more at cbey.yale.edu/online-learning-opportunities.

Music for Shift Key is by Adam Kromelow.

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