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The contrasts may be quiet, but they’re also quite clear.
The United States Senate sits on a knife-edge. Democrats currently control the chamber by a 51-49 margin, but they are defending more seats than Republicans are in this election. In fact, with the retirement of Joe Manchin and the nearly inevitable passing of that West Virginia seat to a Republican, Democrats need to win almost every contested race in order to keep the chamber at 50-50, which would give them control if Kamala Harris wins the White House and Tim Walz is able to cast tie-breaking votes.
The consequences of a shift in control for climate policy could be enormous, not just in the legislation that will (or won’t) pass, but in the fate of nominees to key agencies. So how are Senate candidates confronting the climate issue? This roundup of the 10 most closely contested races shows that while the contrasts between the candidates are stark, for the most part, climate has been a secondary or even absent issue on the campaign trail.
The contrasts between the candidates are unmistakeable; to take just one example, every Democrat on this list who was in Congress at the time voted for the Inflation Reduction Act, the most significant climate legislation in history, and every Republican opposed it. But with the exception of Pennsylvania, where fracking has been a major issue, and to a lesser extent in Arizona, where Ruben Gallego often brings up the toll of increasing temperatures, in none of these races is climate change anywhere near the forefront of the debate.
That’s mostly because Democrats have chosen not to elevate the issue. Though they might criticize their Republican opponents for opposing the IRA or ignoring climate altogether if you ask them, they haven’t put time and resources behind the criticism. You don’t see them discussing climate in their advertising, and in most cases you won’t even find it mentioned on their websites — or if it’s there, it merits only a brief statement of intentions and nothing more detailed.
Nevertheless, the contrast remains: All of these Democrats can be counted on to support most or all of a Harris administration’s climate initiatives, just as the Republicans will reliably oppose them, or support a second Trump administration’s efforts to roll back the measures the Biden administration has undertaken. Which is why so much depends on where the Senate falls after election day.
The candidates: Democrat Ruben Gallego vs. Republican Kari Lake
Gallego has been a particularly forceful advocate on one aspect of climate change: extreme heat. He told The Arizona Republic that “our state will become uninhabitable in the summer if we wait much longer to act,” has introduced multiple bills to address it, and criticized the Biden administration for not going far enough to confront the danger of rising temperatures. Lake, on the other hand, dismisses any such concern. Last summer she accused Gallego and Governor Katie Hobbs of “pushing mass hysteria in an effort to declare a climate emergency.” She told a podcast, “Newsflash, it’s hot in Arizona in the summer,” and said “don’t tell me that we’re in some sort of a weird heating trend … I don’t believe that for a minute.”
The candidates: Democrat Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, the challenger vs. Republican Rick Scott, the incumbent
When he became Florida’s governor in 2011, Scott reportedly issued an informal ban on the use of the terms “climate change” and “global warming” in state communication. He denied the story and in recent years has softened his previous climate denial, but he was regularly criticized for inaction in a state unusually vulnerable to climate impacts and has been a consistent opponent of efforts to address warming. Mucarsel-Powell’s website says she “knows climate change is real and she is ready to take action to address the climate crisis that is impacting Floridians, their lives, and their property,” but she’s been quiet about it on the trail.
The candidates: Democrat Angela Alsobrooks vs. Republican Larry Hogan
Former Governor Hogan is the most moderate Republican on this list, and during his tenure in Annapolis he went farther on climate than most Republicans liked, but not as far as state Democrats wanted. He committed the state to reducing emissions, but grappled with Democrats in the legislature over a sweeping climate plan, eventually allowing a scaled-back version to become law without his signature. Alsobrooks calls climate change an “existential threat” and touts her climate efforts as Prince George’s County Executive, including obtaining funding for more electric buses and creating a composting program. She issued an executive order in 2022, setting a goal of making her country carbon-neutral by 2045.
The candidates: Republican Tim Sheehy, the challenger vs. Democrat Jon Tester, the incumbent
For a red-state Democrat, Tester talks a good deal about climate, not mincing words about the effects of global warming (which he says he witnesses as a working farmer) and regularly touting funding he has secured to mitigate climate effects in Montana; he gets a lifetime score of 89% from the League of Conservation Voters. But he favors carrots over sticks, objecting to some tougher pollution regulations and supporting continued fossil fuel production, including the Keystone XL pipeline. Sheehy is a full-on climate denier who rails against “the radical climate cult agenda” and the “woke crap” of ESG investing. Yet the company that made Sheehy rich markets its wildfire-fighting efforts as a response to climate change’s effects.
The candidates: Republican Mike Rogers vs. Democrat Elissa Slotkin
Slotkin, a current member of the House of Representatives, has portrayed herself as something of a climate moderate in Congress, cosponsoring bipartisan emissions legislation but declining to support the Green New Deal. Still, she often brings up her work preparing the Department of Defense to adapt to climate change, and has been supportive of the Biden administration’s climate initiatives. Rogers, on the other hand, was a consistent vote in the House, where he served from the aughts to the mid-2010s, against all kinds of environmental initiatives, and ridiculed DOD climate efforts: “When we dedicate scarce defense funding to global climate change, biofuel initiatives and social engineering experiments with military personnel, you can almost hear the cheers and laughter of our adversaries,” he wrote in 2021. While Slotkin has brought up climate on the campaign trail, neither candidate mentions it on their website.
The candidates: Republican Sam Brown, the challenger vs. Democrat Jacky Rosen, the incumbent
Rosen has been more outspoken about climate change than many Democrats on this list, and has been a particularly strong booster of Nevada’s solar industry; she also attended COP26 in 2021. Brown’s website says, “We have been blessed with an abundance of natural resources, but we’ve also been plagued by politicians pushing extreme left energy agendas, like the Green New Deal, that raise prices and destroy jobs”; he has also criticized electric vehicles and incentives to increase EV sales.
The candidates:Democrat Sherrod Brown, the incumbent vs. Republican Bernie Moreno, the challenger
Senator Brown has used his chairmanship of the Senate Banking Committee to draw attention to climate issues, including pressing the Federal Reserve to incorporate climate risks into its relationship with the banking industry. He has called climate “one of the greatest moral issues of our time,” and has long advocated clean energy as a vehicle to rebuild the country’s industrial base. But during this campaign, he has become increasingly wary of certain emissions regulations he fears will lead to job loss, saying “I’ve spent most of my career looking at trade or environment through the eyes of employment in my state.” Moreno wants to eliminate EV subsidies and has attacked “Biden’s radical Green New Deal agenda,” arguing that achieving “energy dominance” through fossil fuel production is vital to prosperity.
The candidates:Democrat Bob Casey, the incumbent vs. Republican Dave McCormick, the challenger
Though Casey has a strong environmental record, McCormick has succeeded in making fracking a central issue of the campaign, including falsely accusing Casey of supporting a ban on the technique, which is commonly used in Pennsylvania to extract natural gas. McCormick acknowledges that climate change is real, but nevertheless told the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette he wants to “unlock oil and gas production here at home.” (The U.S. is already the world’s largest producer of both oil and natural gas.) In the midst of the fracking controversy, Casey seems to have quieted his prior climate advocacy somewhat (his website has no section on climate, but does have one on “Preserving Pennsylvania’s Energy Legacy”), but he hasn’t publicly disavowed any of his prior positions.
The candidates: Democrat Colin Allred, the challenger vs. Republican Ted Cruz, the incumbent
Cruz has long been one of Congress’ most prominent climate deniers and one of the top recipients of contributions from the fossil fuel industry. He blames the Green New Deal, a piece of legislation that was never voted on, for high electricity prices in Texas, and has attacked federal agencies for “fueling youth climate anxiety.” While Allred has supported climate action in the past, he has trod somewhat carefully on the issue during the campaign (he advocates “an all-of-the-above energy strategy” and has promoted liquified natural gas exports) and hasn’t made an issue of Cruz’s climate denial.
The candidates:Democrat Tammy Baldwin, the incumbent vs. Republican Eric Hovde, the challenger
Baldwin has been a consistent advocate for climate action, including co-sponsoring a bill to achieve net-zero emissions for the entire country by 2050. Hovde has spent a good deal of the campaign railing against EV subsidies and other green energy spending, calls efforts to phase out fossil fuels “delusional,” and instead promotes increased fossil fuel production.
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The agency provided a list to the Sierra Club, which in turn provided the list to Heatmap.
Officials at the Environmental Protection Agency remain closed-lipped about which grants they’ve canceled. Earlier this week, however, the office provided a written list to the Sierra Club in response to a Freedom of Information Act request, which begins to shed light on some of the agency’s actions.
The document shows 49 individual grants that were either “canceled” or prevented from being awarded from January 20 through March 7, which is the day the public information office conducted its search in response to the FOIA request. The grants’ total cumulative value is more than $230 million, although some $30 million appears to have already been paid out to recipients.
The numbers don’t quite line up with what the agency has said publicly. The EPA published three press releases between Trump’s inauguration and March 7, announcing that it had canceled a total of 42 grants and “saved” Americans roughly $227 million. In its first such announcement on February 14, the agency said it was canceling a $50 million grant to the Climate Justice Alliance, but the only grant to that organization on the FOIA spreadsheet is listed at $12 million. To make matters more confusing, there are only $185 million worth of EPA grant cuts listed on the Department of Government Efficiency’s website from the same time period. (Zeldin later announced more than 400 additional grant terminations on March 10.)
Nonetheless, the document gives a clearer picture of which grants Administrator Lee Zeldin has targeted. Nearly half of the canceled grants are related to environmental justice initiatives, which is not surprising, given the Trump administration’s directives to root out these types of programs. But nearly as many were funding research into lower-carbon construction materials and better product labeling to prevent greenwashing.
Here’s the full list of grants, by program:
A few more details and observations from this list:
In the original FOIA request, Sierra Club had asked for a lot more information, including communications between EPA and the grant recipients, and explanations for why the grants — which in many cases involved binding contracts between the government and recipients — were being terminated. In its response, EPA said it was still working on the rest of the request and expected to issue a complete response by April 12.
Defenders of the Inflation Reduction Act have hit on what they hope will be a persuasive argument for why it should stay.
With the fate of the Inflation Reduction Act and its tax credits for building and producing clean energy hanging in the balance, the law’s supporters have increasingly turned to dollars-and-cents arguments in favor of its preservation. Since the election, industry and research groups have put out a handful of reports making the broad argument that in addition to higher greenhouse gas emissions, taking away these tax credits would mean higher electricity bills.
The American Clean Power Association put out a report in December, authored by the consulting firm ICF, arguing that “energy tax credits will drive $1.9 trillion in growth, creating 13.7 million jobs and delivering 4x return on investment.”
The Solar Energy Industries Association followed that up last month with a letter citing an analysis by Aurora Energy Research, which found that undoing the tax credits for wind, solar, and storage would reduce clean energy deployment by 237 gigawatts through 2040 and cost nearly 100,000 jobs, all while raising bills by hundreds of dollars in Texas and New York. (Other groups, including the conservative environmental group ConservAmerica and the Clean Energy Buyers Association have commissioned similar research and come up with similar results.)
And just this week, Energy Innovation, a clean energy research group that had previously published widely cited research arguing that clean energy deployment was not linked to the run-up in retail electricity prices, published a report that found repealing the Inflation Reduction Act would “increase cumulative household energy costs by $32 billion” over the next decade, among other economic impacts.
The tax credits “make clean energy even more economic than it already is, particularly for developers,” explained Energy Innovation senior director Robbie Orvis. “When you add more of those technologies, you bring down the electricity cost significantly,” he said.
Historically, the price of fossil fuels like natural gas and coal have set the wholesale price for electricity. With renewables, however, the operating costs associated with procuring those fuels go away. The fewer of those you have, “the lower the price drops,” Orvis said. Without the tax credits to support the growth and deployment of renewables, the analysis found that annual energy costs per U.S. household would go up some $48 annually by 2030, and $68 by 2035.
These arguments come at a time when retail electricity prices in much of the country have grown substantially. Since December 2019, average retail electricity prices have risen from about $0.13 per kilowatt-hour to almost $0.18, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. In Massachusetts and California, rates are over $0.30 a kilowatt-hour, according to the Energy Information Administration. As Energy Innovation researchers have pointed out, states with higher renewable penetration sometimes have higher rates, including California, but often do not, as in South Dakota, where 77% of its electricity comes from renewables.
Retail electricity prices are not solely determined by fuel costs Distribution costs for maintaining the whole electrical system are also a factor. In California, for example,it’s these costs that have driven a spike in rates, as utilities have had to harden their grids against wildfires. Across the whole country, utilities have had to ramp up capital investment in grid equipment as it’s aged, driving up distribution costs, a 2024 Energy Innovation report argued.
A similar analysis by Aurora Energy Research (the one cited by SEIA) that just looked at investment and production tax credits for wind, solar, and batteries found that if they were removed, electricity bills would increase hundreds of dollars per year on average, and by as much as $40 per month in New York and $29 per month in Texas.
One reason the bill impact could be so high, Aurora’s Martin Anderson told me, is that states with aggressive goals for decarbonizing the electricity sector would still have to procure clean energy in a world where its deployment would have gotten more expensive. New York is targetinga target for getting 70% of its electricity from renewable sources by 2030, while Minnesota has a goal for its utilities to sell 55% clean electricity by 2035 and could see its average cost increase by $22 a month. Some of these states may have to resort to purchasing renewable energy certificates to make up the difference as new generation projects in the state become less attractive.
Bills in Texas, on the other hand, would likely go up because wind and solar investment would slow down, meaning that Texans’ large-scale energy consumption would be increasingly met with fossil fuels (Texas has a Renewable Portfolio Standard that it has long since surpassed).
This emphasis from industry and advocacy groups on the dollars and cents of clean energy policy is hardly new — when the House of Representatives passed the (doomed) Waxman-Markey cap and trade bill in 2009, then-Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi told the House, “Remember these four words for what this legislation means: jobs, jobs, jobs, and jobs.”
More recently, when Democratic Senators Martin Heinrich and Tim Kaine hosted a press conference to press their case for preserving the Inflation Reduction Act, the email that landed in reporters’ inboxes read “Heinrich, Kaine Host Press Conference on Trump’s War on Affordable, American-Made Energy.”
“Trump’s war on the Inflation Reduction Act will kill American jobs, raise costs on families, weaken our economic competitiveness, and erode American global energy dominance,” Heinrich told me in an emailed statement. “Trump should end his destructive crusade on affordable energy and start putting the interests of working people first.”
That the impacts and benefits of the IRA are spread between blue and red states speaks to the political calculation of clean energy proponents, hoping that a bill that subsidized solar panels in Texas, battery factories in Georgia, and battery storage in Southern California could bring about a bipartisan alliance to keep it alive. While Congressional Republicans will be scouring the budget for every last dollar to help fund an extension of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, a group of House Republicans have gone on the record in defense of the IRA’s tax credits.
“There's been so much research on the emissions impact of the IRA over the past few years, but there's been comparatively less research on the economic benefits and the household energy benefits,” Orvis said. “And I think that one thing that's become evident in the last year or so is that household energy costs — inflation, fossil fuel prices — those do seem to be more top of mind for Americans.”
Opinion modeling from Heatmap Pro shows that lower utility bills is the number one perceived benefit of renewables in much of the country. The only counties where it isn’t the number one perceived benefit are known for being extremely wealthy, extremely crunchy, or both: Boulder and Denver in Colorado; Multnomah (a.k.a. Portland) in Oregon; Arlington in Virginia; and Chittenden in Vermont.
On environmental justice grants, melting glaciers, and Amazon’s carbon credits
Current conditions: Severe thunderstorms are expected across the Mississippi Valley this weekend • Storm Martinho pushed Portugal’s wind power generation to “historic maximums” • It’s 62 degrees Fahrenheit, cloudy, and very quiet at Heathrow Airport outside London, where a large fire at an electricity substation forced the international travel hub to close.
President Trump invoked emergency powers Thursday to expand production of critical minerals and reduce the nation’s reliance on other countries. The executive order relies on the Defense Production Act, which “grants the president powers to ensure the nation’s defense by expanding and expediting the supply of materials and services from the domestic industrial base.”
Former President Biden invoked the act several times during his term, once to accelerate domestic clean energy production, and another time to boost mining and critical minerals for the nation’s large-capacity battery supply chain. Trump’s order calls for identifying “priority projects” for which permits can be expedited, and directs the Department of the Interior to prioritize mineral production and mining as the “primary land uses” of federal lands that are known to contain minerals.
Critical minerals are used in all kinds of clean tech, including solar panels, EV batteries, and wind turbines. Trump’s executive order doesn’t mention these technologies, but says “transportation, infrastructure, defense capabilities, and the next generation of technology rely upon a secure, predictable, and affordable supply of minerals.”
Anonymous current and former staffers at the Environmental Protection Agency have penned an open letter to the American people, slamming the Trump administration’s attacks on climate grants awarded to nonprofits under the Inflation Reduction Act’s Greenhouse Gas Reduction Fund. The letter, published in Environmental Health News, focuses mostly on the grants that were supposed to go toward environmental justice programs, but have since been frozen under the current administration. For example, Climate United was awarded nearly $7 billion to finance clean energy projects in rural, Tribal, and low-income communities.
“It is a waste of taxpayer dollars for the U.S. government to cancel its agreements with grantees and contractors,” the letter states. “It is fraud for the U.S. government to delay payments for services already received. And it is an abuse of power for the Trump administration to block the IRA laws that were mandated by Congress.”
The lives of 2 billion people, or about a quarter of the human population, are threatened by melting glaciers due to climate change. That’s according to UNESCO’s new World Water Development Report, released to correspond with the UN’s first World Day for Glaciers. “As the world warms, glaciers are melting faster than ever, making the water cycle more unpredictable and extreme,” the report says. “And because of glacial retreat, floods, droughts, landslides, and sea-level rise are intensifying, with devastating consequences for people and nature.” Some key stats about the state of the world’s glaciers:
In case you missed it: Amazon has started selling “high-integrity science-based carbon credits” to its suppliers and business customers, as well as companies that have committed to being net-zero by 2040 in line with Amazon’s Climate Pledge, to help them offset their greenhouse gas emissions.
“The voluntary carbon market has been challenged with issues of transparency, credibility, and the availability of high-quality carbon credits, which has led to skepticism about nature and technological carbon removal as an effective tool to combat climate change,” said Kara Hurst, chief sustainability officer at Amazon. “However, the science is clear: We must halt and reverse deforestation and restore millions of miles of forests to slow the worst effects of climate change. We’re using our size and high vetting standards to help promote additional investments in nature, and we are excited to share this new opportunity with companies who are also committed to the difficult work of decarbonizing their operations.”
The Bureau of Land Management is close to approving the environmental review for a transmission line that would connect to BluEarth Renewables’ Lucky Star wind project, Heatmap’s Jael Holzman reports in The Fight. “This is a huge deal,” she says. “For the last two months it has seemed like nothing wind-related could be approved by the Trump administration. But that may be about to change.”
BLM sent local officials an email March 6 with a draft environmental assessment for the transmission line, which is required for the federal government to approve its right-of-way under the National Environmental Policy Act. According to the draft, the entirety of the wind project is sited on private property and “no longer will require access to BLM-administered land.”
The email suggests this draft environmental assessment may soon be available for public comment. BLM’s web page for the transmission line now states an approval granting right-of-way may come as soon as May. BLM last week did something similar with a transmission line that would go to a solar project proposed entirely on private lands. Holzman wonders: “Could private lands become the workaround du jour under Trump?”
Saudi Aramco, the world’s largest oil producer, this week launched a pilot direct air capture unit capable of removing 12 tons of carbon dioxide per year. In 2023 alone, the company’s Scope 1 and Scope 2 emissions totalled 72.6 million metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent.