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Honest debate — can you imagine!

In the sort of happy coincidence that is only possible in Washington, D.C., two consequential linguistic debates unfolded on Thursday morning within half a mile of each other. The first, in the Supreme Court of the United States, commanded the attention of major TV networks and political pundits, warranted a live blog from The New York Times, and aimed, in part, to differentiate between what constitutes an “insurrection” versus a mere “riot.”
A five-minute walk away, in room 366 of the Dirksen Senate Office Building, a similar debate was unfolding — albeit after some live-stream technical difficulties and a brief protest by the climate group Third Act. The event didn’t elicit quite the same level of national intrigue as the hullabaloo on the other side of Constitution Avenue; in fact, I never saw more than 173 other people watching the feed along with me at any given point. The senators’ debate, though, was an important one, and it centered largely on the meaning of the word “pause.”
If that sounds familiar, it’s because Republicans on the House Energy, Climate, and Grid Security Subcommittee had a similar debate earlier this week about the Biden administration’s pause on approving new permits for facilities to export liquified natural gas. But while that hearing had been a silly (and at times, infuriating) example of the GOP’s contorted defenses of the oil and gas industry, the Senate Energy and Natural Resources hearing on the LNG pause felt a little more meaningful. Ironically, that’s partially because nothing really was said.
Called by cantankerous West Virginia Democrat and committee Chairman Joe Manchin, the Senate hearing took place in two parts: The first and most interesting saw Deputy U.S. Energy Secretary David Turk make the first on-the-record defense of the export terminal pause by a Biden administration official. In contrast, the second part called as witnesses a European gas executive and an LNG industry advocate, each of whom made predictable noises about the threat of energy volatility in the face of revanchist Russia.
Though Manchin, in his opening remarks, said he “strongly” urged the Biden administration to reverse the export terminal permitting pause “immediately,” he and other skeptical senators appeared to be at least partially open to Turk’s opinion on everything from whether “it is wise to give our allies and partners and neutral parties across the world an excuse to do business with our enemies” to how long the DOE’s re-evaluation of what it means for a new export terminal to be “in the public interest” would take.
They appeared less satisfied with Turk’s unwillingness to give them firm answers, however. Regarding LNG export terminals supporting European energy security, Turk explained, “We need to look at how much we’ve already authorized, how much we’re already in the process of authorizing, and compare that to what our allies absolutely need.” When pressed about a timeline for the length of the pause and the DOE’s decision-making, he committed to “months, not years” but stressed “there are a lot of questions,” and rigorous analysis takes time. Later, James Watson, a witness and executive of Eurogas, suggested Turk had been unforthcoming because he’d been “asked to explain the unexplainable, which is not easy to do.”
In fact, Turk’s deferrals underscored why a pause is so necessary, something further drawn out during a rare back-and-forth between senators following a comment by Manchin. “If we were talking about considering a pause, this is a great, great panel for it. But you have an executive order doing a pause: that’s the difference,” Manchin said.
“I think it’s just the opposite, Mr. Chairman,” Maine Democrat Angus King pushed back. The DOE is “doing their job and their job is to see that these projects are in the public interest. There’s no way to do that without the data.”
“You can’t do the pause first, though,” Manchin said.
“Why not?” King responded. If you don’t pause first, “then you’re approving projects when you find out, five years from now, that it was a disaster.”
There are a lot of valid and complicated questions about LNG, which will take time to answer. But hot air loves a vacuum, especially in Washington, and Republicans have seized the opportunity to spin the pause as a “ban” or a “stop” — as in, “basically, you’re stopping things,” in the words of Alaska Republican Lisa Murkowski. But “nobody’s talking about stopping,” King later pointed out during the second witness panel after Turk had left. “We’re talking about taking a period of time in order to do the necessary research.”
That, after all, is the unsexy truth of climate policymaking: It isn’t exciting. There aren’t cameras waiting outside for shouted questions. It’s not covered by liveblogs or cable news chyrons. Maybe only 173 people will even bother to take time out of their mornings to troubleshoot where the live stream has migrated to when it doesn’t appear on the committee website. So, while “pause” is an easy word to throw around and even easier to exaggerate, what it should mean in practice is to do the math and do it right.
Turk repeatedly said the DOE welcomes debate, including with a forthcoming public comment period on its findings. Even Manchin seemed to embrace the disagreements and nuances of the topic at hand. “I enjoyed that!” he exclaimed on a hot mic after Turk’s testimony and his back-and-forth with King.
That doesn’t mean anyone changed anyone else’s mind on Thursday; I don’t think Manchin was more dissuaded than when he woke up this morning that the Biden administration had “put the cart before the horse” even in simply taking a break on LNG approvals. But in a rare absence of political theater on the Hill, a government official said there’s still more to learn and debate, and everyone seemed to agree.
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According to a new analysis shared exclusively with Heatmap, coal’s equipment-related outage rate is about twice as high as wind’s.
The Trump administration wants “beautiful clean coal” to return to its place of pride on the electric grid because, it says, wind and solar are just too unreliable. “If we want to keep the lights on and prevent blackouts from happening, then we need to keep our coal plants running. Affordable, reliable and secure energy sources are common sense,” Chris Wright said on X in July, in what has become a steady drumbeat from the administration that has sought to subsidize coal and put a regulatory straitjacket around solar and (especially) wind.
This has meant real money spent in support of existing coal plants. The administration’s emergency order to keep Michigan’s J.H. Campbell coal plant open (“to secure grid reliability”), for example, has cost ratepayers served by Michigan utility Consumers Energy some $80 million all on its own.
But … how reliable is coal, actually? According to an analysis by the Environmental Defense Fund of data from the North American Electric Reliability Corporation, a nonprofit that oversees reliability standards for the grid, coal has the highest “equipment-related outage rate” — essentially, the percentage of time a generator isn’t working because of some kind of mechanical or other issue related to its physical structure — among coal, hydropower, natural gas, nuclear, and wind. Coal’s outage rate was over 12%. Wind’s was about 6.6%.
“When EDF’s team isolated just equipment-related outages, wind energy proved far more reliable than coal, which had the highest outage rate of any source NERC tracks,” EDF told me in an emailed statement.
Coal’s reliability has, in fact, been decreasing, Oliver Chapman, a research analyst at EDF, told me.
NERC has attributed this falling reliability to the changing role of coal in the energy system. Reliability “negatively correlates most strongly to capacity factor,” or how often the plant is running compared to its peak capacity. The data also “aligns with industry statements indicating that reduced investment in maintenance and abnormal cycling that are being adopted primarily in response to rapid changes in the resource mix are negatively impacting baseload coal unit performance.” In other words, coal is struggling to keep up with its changing role in the energy system. That’s due not just to the growth of solar and wind energy, which are inherently (but predictably) variable, but also to natural gas’s increasing prominence on the grid.
“When coal plants are having to be a bit more varied in their generation, we're seeing that wear and tear of those plants is increasing,” Chapman said. “The assumption is that that's only going to go up in future years.”
The issue for any plan to revitalize the coal industry, Chapman told me, is that the forces driving coal into this secondary role — namely the economics of running aging plants compared to natural gas and renewables — do not seem likely to reverse themselves any time soon.
Coal has been “sort of continuously pushed a bit more to the sidelines by renewables and natural gas being cheaper sources for utilities to generate their power. This increased marginalization is going to continue to lead to greater wear and tear on these plants,” Chapman said.
But with electricity demand increasing across the country, coal is being forced into a role that it might not be able to easily — or affordably — play, all while leading to more emissions of sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxide, particulate matter, mercury, and, of course, carbon dioxide.
The coal system has been beset by a number of high-profile outages recently, including at the largest new coal plant in the country, Sandy Creek in Texas, which could be offline until early 2027, according to the Texas energy market ERCOT and the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis.
In at least one case, coal’s reliability issues were cited as a reason to keep another coal generating unit open past its planned retirement date.
Last month, Colorado Representative Will Hurd wrote a letter to the Department of Energy asking for emergency action to keep Unit 2 of the Comanche coal plant in Pueblo, Colorado open past its scheduled retirement at the end of his year. Hurd cited “mechanical and regulatory constraints” for the larger Unit 3 as a justification for keeping Unit 2 open, to fill in the generation gap left by the larger unit. In a filing by Xcel and several Colorado state energy officials also requesting delaying the retirement of Unit 2, they disclosed that the larger Unit 3 “experienced an unplanned outage and is offline through at least June 2026.”
Reliability issues aside, high electricity demand may turn into short-term profits at all levels of the coal industry, from the miners to the power plants.
At the same time the Trump administration is pushing coal plants to stay open past their scheduled retirement, the Energy Information Administration is forecasting that natural gas prices will continue to rise, which could lead to increased use of coal for electricity generation. The EIA forecasts that the 2025 average price of natural gas for power plants will rise 37% from 2024 levels.
Analysts at S&P Global Commodity Insights project “a continued rebound in thermal coal consumption throughout 2026 as thermal coal prices remain competitive with short-term natural gas prices encouraging gas-to-coal switching,” S&P coal analyst Wendy Schallom told me in an email.
“Stronger power demand, rising natural gas prices, delayed coal retirements, stockpiles trending lower, and strong thermal coal exports are vital to U.S. coal revival in 2025 and 2026.”
And we’re all going to be paying the price.
Rural Marylanders have asked for the president’s help to oppose the data center-related development — but so far they haven’t gotten it.
A transmission line in Maryland is pitting rural conservatives against Big Tech in a way that highlights the growing political sensitivities of the data center backlash. Opponents of the project want President Trump to intervene, but they’re worried he’ll ignore them — or even side with the data center developers.
The Piedmont Reliability Project would connect the Peach Bottom nuclear plant in southern Pennsylvania to electricity customers in northern Virginia, i.e.data centers, most likely. To get from A to B, the power line would have to criss-cross agricultural lands between Baltimore, Maryland and the Washington D.C. area.
As we chronicle time and time again in The Fight, residents in farming communities are fighting back aggressively – protesting, petitioning, suing and yelling loudly. Things have gotten so tense that some are refusing to let representatives for Piedmont’s developer, PSEG, onto their properties, and a court battle is currently underway over giving the company federal marshal protection amid threats from landowners.
Exacerbating the situation is a quirk we don’t often deal with in The Fight. Unlike energy generation projects, which are usually subject to local review, transmission sits entirely under the purview of Maryland’s Public Service Commission, a five-member board consisting entirely of Democrats appointed by current Governor Wes Moore – a rumored candidate for the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination. It’s going to be months before the PSC formally considers the Piedmont project, and it likely won’t issue a decision until 2027 – a date convenient for Moore, as it’s right after he’s up for re-election. Moore last month expressed “concerns” about the project’s development process, but has brushed aside calls to take a personal position on whether it should ultimately be built.
Enter a potential Trump card that could force Moore’s hand. In early October, commissioners and state legislators representing Carroll County – one of the farm-heavy counties in Piedmont’s path – sent Trump a letter requesting that he intervene in the case before the commission. The letter followed previous examples of Trump coming in to kill planned projects, including the Grain Belt Express transmission line and a Tennessee Valley Authority gas plant in Tennessee that was relocated after lobbying from a country rock musician.
One of the letter’s lead signatories was Kenneth Kiler, president of the Carroll County Board of Commissioners, who told me this lobbying effort will soon expand beyond Trump to the Agriculture and Energy Departments. He’s hoping regulators weigh in before PJM, the regional grid operator overseeing Mid-Atlantic states. “We’re hoping they go to PJM and say, ‘You’re supposed to be managing the grid, and if you were properly managing the grid you wouldn’t need to build a transmission line through a state you’re not giving power to.’”
Part of the reason why these efforts are expanding, though, is that it’s been more than a month since they sent their letter, and they’ve heard nothing but radio silence from the White House.
“My worry is that I think President Trump likes and sees the need for data centers. They take a lot of water and a lot of electric [power],” Kiler, a Republican, told me in an interview. “He’s conservative, he values property rights, but I’m not sure that he’s not wanting data centers so badly that he feels this request is justified.”
Kiler told me the plan to kill the transmission line centers hinges on delaying development long enough that interest rates, inflation and rising demand for electricity make it too painful and inconvenient to build it through his resentful community. It’s easy to believe the federal government flexing its muscle here would help with that, either by drawing out the decision-making or employing some other as yet unforeseen stall tactic. “That’s why we’re doing this second letter to the Secretary of Agriculture and Secretary of Energy asking them for help. I think they may be more sympathetic than the president,” Kiler said.
At the moment, Kiler thinks the odds of Piedmont’s construction come down to a coin flip – 50-50. “They’re running straight through us for data centers. We want this project stopped, and we’ll fight as well as we can, but it just seems like ultimately they’re going to do it,” he confessed to me.
Thus is the predicament of the rural Marylander. On the one hand, Kiler’s situation represents a great opportunity for a GOP president to come in and stand with his base against a would-be presidential candidate. On the other, data center development and artificial intelligence represent one of the president’s few economic bright spots, and he has dedicated copious policy attention to expanding growth in this precise avenue of the tech sector. It’s hard to imagine something less “energy dominance” than killing a transmission line.
The White House did not respond to a request for comment.
Plus more of the week’s most important fights around renewable energy.
1. Wayne County, Nebraska – The Trump administration fined Orsted during the government shutdown for allegedly killing bald eagles at two of its wind projects, the first indications of financial penalties for energy companies under Trump’s wind industry crackdown.
2. Ocean County, New Jersey – Speaking of wind, I broke news earlier this week that one of the nation’s largest renewable energy projects is now deceased: the Leading Light offshore wind project.
3. Dane County, Wisconsin – The fight over a ginormous data center development out here is turning into perhaps one of the nation’s most important local conflicts over AI and land use.
4. Hardeman County, Texas – It’s not all bad news today for renewable energy – because it never really is.