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Honest debate — can you imagine!
In the sort of happy coincidence that is only possible in Washington, D.C., two consequential linguistic debates unfolded on Thursday morning within half a mile of each other. The first, in the Supreme Court of the United States, commanded the attention of major TV networks and political pundits, warranted a live blog from The New York Times, and aimed, in part, to differentiate between what constitutes an “insurrection” versus a mere “riot.”
A five-minute walk away, in room 366 of the Dirksen Senate Office Building, a similar debate was unfolding — albeit after some live-stream technical difficulties and a brief protest by the climate group Third Act. The event didn’t elicit quite the same level of national intrigue as the hullabaloo on the other side of Constitution Avenue; in fact, I never saw more than 173 other people watching the feed along with me at any given point. The senators’ debate, though, was an important one, and it centered largely on the meaning of the word “pause.”
If that sounds familiar, it’s because Republicans on the House Energy, Climate, and Grid Security Subcommittee had a similar debate earlier this week about the Biden administration’s pause on approving new permits for facilities to export liquified natural gas. But while that hearing had been a silly (and at times, infuriating) example of the GOP’s contorted defenses of the oil and gas industry, the Senate Energy and Natural Resources hearing on the LNG pause felt a little more meaningful. Ironically, that’s partially because nothing really was said.
Called by cantankerous West Virginia Democrat and committee Chairman Joe Manchin, the Senate hearing took place in two parts: The first and most interesting saw Deputy U.S. Energy Secretary David Turk make the first on-the-record defense of the export terminal pause by a Biden administration official. In contrast, the second part called as witnesses a European gas executive and an LNG industry advocate, each of whom made predictable noises about the threat of energy volatility in the face of revanchist Russia.
Though Manchin, in his opening remarks, said he “strongly” urged the Biden administration to reverse the export terminal permitting pause “immediately,” he and other skeptical senators appeared to be at least partially open to Turk’s opinion on everything from whether “it is wise to give our allies and partners and neutral parties across the world an excuse to do business with our enemies” to how long the DOE’s re-evaluation of what it means for a new export terminal to be “in the public interest” would take.
They appeared less satisfied with Turk’s unwillingness to give them firm answers, however. Regarding LNG export terminals supporting European energy security, Turk explained, “We need to look at how much we’ve already authorized, how much we’re already in the process of authorizing, and compare that to what our allies absolutely need.” When pressed about a timeline for the length of the pause and the DOE’s decision-making, he committed to “months, not years” but stressed “there are a lot of questions,” and rigorous analysis takes time. Later, James Watson, a witness and executive of Eurogas, suggested Turk had been unforthcoming because he’d been “asked to explain the unexplainable, which is not easy to do.”
In fact, Turk’s deferrals underscored why a pause is so necessary, something further drawn out during a rare back-and-forth between senators following a comment by Manchin. “If we were talking about considering a pause, this is a great, great panel for it. But you have an executive order doing a pause: that’s the difference,” Manchin said.
“I think it’s just the opposite, Mr. Chairman,” Maine Democrat Angus King pushed back. The DOE is “doing their job and their job is to see that these projects are in the public interest. There’s no way to do that without the data.”
“You can’t do the pause first, though,” Manchin said.
“Why not?” King responded. If you don’t pause first, “then you’re approving projects when you find out, five years from now, that it was a disaster.”
There are a lot of valid and complicated questions about LNG, which will take time to answer. But hot air loves a vacuum, especially in Washington, and Republicans have seized the opportunity to spin the pause as a “ban” or a “stop” — as in, “basically, you’re stopping things,” in the words of Alaska Republican Lisa Murkowski. But “nobody’s talking about stopping,” King later pointed out during the second witness panel after Turk had left. “We’re talking about taking a period of time in order to do the necessary research.”
That, after all, is the unsexy truth of climate policymaking: It isn’t exciting. There aren’t cameras waiting outside for shouted questions. It’s not covered by liveblogs or cable news chyrons. Maybe only 173 people will even bother to take time out of their mornings to troubleshoot where the live stream has migrated to when it doesn’t appear on the committee website. So, while “pause” is an easy word to throw around and even easier to exaggerate, what it should mean in practice is to do the math and do it right.
Turk repeatedly said the DOE welcomes debate, including with a forthcoming public comment period on its findings. Even Manchin seemed to embrace the disagreements and nuances of the topic at hand. “I enjoyed that!” he exclaimed on a hot mic after Turk’s testimony and his back-and-forth with King.
That doesn’t mean anyone changed anyone else’s mind on Thursday; I don’t think Manchin was more dissuaded than when he woke up this morning that the Biden administration had “put the cart before the horse” even in simply taking a break on LNG approvals. But in a rare absence of political theater on the Hill, a government official said there’s still more to learn and debate, and everyone seemed to agree.
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Plus 3 more outstanding questions about this ongoing emergency.
As Los Angeles continued to battle multiple big blazes ripping through some of the most beloved (and expensive) areas of the city on Thursday, a question lingered in the background: What caused the fires in the first place?
Though fires are less common in California during this time of the year, they aren’t unheard of. In early December 2017, power lines sparked the Thomas Fire near Ventura, California, which burned through to mid-January. At the time it was the largest fire in the state since at least the 1930s. Now it’s the ninth-largest. Although that fire was in a more rural area, it ignited for many of the same reasons we’re seeing fires this week.
Read on for everything we know so far about how the fires started.
Five major fires started during the Santa Ana wind event this week:
Officials have not made any statements about the cause of any of the fires yet.
On Thursday morning, Edward Nordskog, a retired fire investigator from the Los Angeles Sheriff’s Department, told me it was unlikely they had even begun looking into the root of the biggest and most destructive of the fires in the Pacific Palisades. “They don't start an investigation until it's safe to go into the area where the fire started, and it just hasn't been safe until probably today,” he said.
It can take years to determine the cause of a fire. Investigators did not pinpoint the cause of the Thomas Fire until March 2019, more than two years after it started.
But Nordskog doesn’t think it will take very long this time. It’s easier to narrow down the possibilities for an urban fire because there are typically both witnesses and surveillance footage, he told me. He said the most common causes of wildfires in Los Angeles are power lines and those started by unhoused people. They can also be caused by sparks from vehicles or equipment.
At about 27,000 acres burned, these fires are unlikely to make the charts for the largest in California history. But because they are burning in urban, densely populated, and expensive areas, they could be some of the most devastating. With an estimated 2,000 structures damaged so far, the Eaton and Palisades fires are likely to make the list for most destructive wildfire events in the state.
And they will certainly be at the top for costliest. The Palisades Fire has already been declared a likely contender for the most expensive wildfire in U.S. history. It has destroyed more than 1,000 structures in some of the most expensive zip codes in the country. Between that and the Eaton Fire, Accuweather estimates the damages could reach $57 billion.
While we don’t know the root causes of the ignitions, several factors came together to create perfect fire conditions in Southern California this week.
First, there’s the Santa Ana winds, an annual phenomenon in Southern California, when very dry, high-pressure air gets trapped in the Great Basin and begins escaping westward through mountain passes to lower-pressure areas along the coast. Most of the time, the wind in Los Angeles blows eastward from the ocean, but during a Santa Ana event, it changes direction, picking up speed as it rushes toward the sea.
Jon Keeley, a research scientist with the US Geological Survey and an adjunct professor at the University of California, Los Angeles told me that Santa Ana winds typically blow at maybe 30 to 40 miles per hour, while the winds this week hit upwards of 60 to 70 miles per hour. “More severe than is normal, but not unique,” he said. “We had similar severe winds in 2017 with the Thomas Fire.”
Second, Southern California is currently in the midst of extreme drought. Winter is typically a rainier season, but Los Angeles has seen less than half an inch of rain since July. That means that all the shrubland vegetation in the area is bone-dry. Again, Keeley said, this was not usual, but not unique. Some years are drier than others.
These fires were also not a question of fuel management, Keeley told me. “The fuels are not really the issue in these big fires. It's the extreme winds,” he said. “You can do prescription burning in chaparral and have essentially no impact on Santa Ana wind-driven fires.” As far as he can tell, based on information from CalFire, the Eaton Fire started on an urban street.
While it’s likely that climate change played a role in amplifying the drought, it’s hard to say how big a factor it was. Patrick Brown, a climate scientist at the Breakthrough Institute and adjunct professor at Johns Hopkins University, published a long post on X outlining the factors contributing to the fires, including a chart of historic rainfall during the winter in Los Angeles that shows oscillations between very wet and very dry years over the past eight decades. But climate change is expected to make dry years drier in Los Angeles. “The LA area is about 3°C warmer than it would be in preindustrial conditions, which (all else being equal) works to dry fuels and makes fires more intense,” Brown wrote.
And more of this week’s top renewable energy fights across the country.
1. Otsego County, Michigan – The Mitten State is proving just how hard it can be to build a solar project in wooded areas. Especially once Fox News gets involved.
2. Atlantic County, New Jersey – Opponents of offshore wind in Atlantic City are trying to undo an ordinance allowing construction of transmission cables that would connect the Atlantic Shores offshore wind project to the grid.
3. Benton County, Washington – Sorry Scout Clean Energy, but the Yakima Nation is coming for Horse Heaven.
Here’s what else we’re watching right now…
In Connecticut, officials have withdrawn from Vineyard Wind 2 — leading to the project being indefinitely shelved.
In Indiana, Invenergy just got a rejection from Marshall County for special use of agricultural lands.
In Kansas, residents in Dickinson County are filing legal action against county commissioners who approved Enel’s Hope Ridge wind project.
In Kentucky, a solar project was actually approved for once – this time for the East Kentucky Power Cooperative.
In North Carolina, Davidson County is getting a solar moratorium.
In Pennsylvania, the town of Unity rejected a solar project. Elsewhere in the state, the developer of the Newton 1 solar project is appealing their denial.
In South Carolina, a state appeals court has upheld the rejection of a 2,300 acre solar project proposed by Coastal Pine Solar.
In Washington State, Yakima County looks like it’ll keep its solar moratorium in place.
And more of this week’s top policy news around renewables.
1. Trump’s Big Promise – Our nation’s incoming president is now saying he’ll ban all wind projects on Day 1, an expansion of his previous promise to stop only offshore wind.
2. The Big Nuclear Lawsuit – Texas and Utah are suing to kill the Nuclear Regulatory Commission’s authority to license small modular reactors.
3. Biden’s parting words – The Biden administration has finished its long-awaited guidance for the IRA’s tech-neutral electricity credit (which barely changed) and hydrogen production credit.