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Obvious Ventures’ Andrew Beebe and Generate Capital’s Scott Jacobs reflect on the past, present, and future of climate tech.
Climate tech investors have a lot to take stock of at the end of 2024. The macroeconomic environment is shaky and investment in the space is down, but there’s plenty of cash reserves lying in wait. Artificial intelligence and its attendant data center power demand may or may not be the downfall of a future clean electric grid. And in case you missed it, Donald Trump was elected once more, this time drawing the world’s most successful — and notorious — climate tech CEO into his fold.
This week I spoke with two veterans of the industry about all these trends and more — Andrew Beebe, managing director of the venture capital firm Obvious Ventures, which has over $1 billion in assets under management, and Scott Jacobs, co-founder and CEO of the comparably huge sustainable infrastructure investment firm Generate Capital, which has raised over $10 billion to date. And while Beebe sounded jazzed about the year to come, Jacobs struck a more downbeat note as he delved into the difficult realities that climate companies are facing.
Beebe reflected positively on 2024 as a whole, though he is historically both an optimist and a contrarian. Venture funds spent this year accumulating capital, a.k.a. “dry powder,” although that doesn’t mean investment into climate tech companies has actually increased.
“Those investors are now going to be very prudent and judicious with their capital,” Beebe told me, emphasizing that we’re likely already seeing the impact of this circumspect approach. Climate tech investment has declined sharply from its peak in 2021 and 2022, when many experts believe the market was running too hot. Though he didn’t have the numbers on hand to back it up, Beebe told me he suspects investors are sitting on more cash now than they were three years ago.
Jacobs, on the other hand, sounded passionate but weary as he mulled over the past year. “This year is a lot like the 10 years we’ve been in business in many ways, which is tough,” he told me. Based on numbers alone, Generate had a successful 2024, raising $1.5 billion from institutional investors and $1.2 billion in flexible loans while making $2 billion in investments. But Jacobs emphasized that the type of flexible, large-scale infrastructure funding that Generate specializes in is always going to be a grind. As he explained to me, getting limited partners to invest in Generate for the long-haul has been a perpetual challenge and the capital costs of running the firm are high, thanks partly to the labor needs of operating and maintaining infrastructure projects.
Jacobs didn’t say this year was any more challenging than normal, simply that Generate’s fundamental model is an all-too-necessary but heavy lift. While a typical VC like Obvious might fund a series of early-stage companies in exchange for equity that could pay off big in a few years, Generate’s paradigm is much more hands on, as it involves owning and operating many of the projects it finances, raising so-called “permanent capital” from LPs that allows it to manage assets indefinitely, and deploying a variety of customized project financing options for its partners.
“I think we’re all very comfortable with the grittiness that is necessary to be sustainable infrastructure investors and operators, but it does tire you out,” Jacobs said. And he doesn’t see an end to the noble slog.
Ultimately though, Jacobs doesn’t think that Generate and its partners are particularly at risk in this uncertain political and economic moment. A policy outlook that the firm published last month stated, “We do not expect the funding environment for sustainable infrastructure projects to be imperiled now that the market is experiencing more headwinds. Rather, we anticipate a flight to quality.” But Jacobs is far more pessimistic about the rest of the climate tech ecosystem. Like many investors that I’ve talked with lately, Jacobs referenced a famous Warren Buffett quote to characterize this moment: “You don’t find out who’s been swimming naked until the tide goes out.”
With investors pulling back and startups taking longer to raise growth funding, Jacobs thinks lots of companies will soon find themselves exposed, even if they don’t know it yet. “I continue to be surprised by the optimism bias in our space,” he told me. While he understands that optimism is “inherent to survival” when standing up companies that aim to address the climate crisis, he thinks many of his peers are ignoring clear negative signals.
“It’s less about the election and more just about the last three years of performance and the last three years of capital flows,” Jacobs said. That is, while another Trump term will likely bode poorly for many startups and investors, climate tech companies are also facing a series of unrelated headwinds that have contributed to falling investment and fewer exit events, including inflation,high interest rates, geopolitical instability, and China’s flooding of the market with cheap tech.
“Northvolt’s bankruptcy, I think, is the first big shoe to drop,” Jacobs told me. “But there could be as many as a dozen more of those that are really high profile climate tech flame-outs that make it seem like we learned no lessons from the first big flame-out” of the early 2010s, of which Solyndra is the most infamous example. That bubble burst as investors failed to grasp the complexity and longer timelines associated with climate tech and backed technologies that lacked a clear path to commercial viability or profitability. This time around, Jacobs told me, “It’s going to be really hard to separate the signal from the noise. And the noise will be very negative.”
Beebe, unsurprisingly, had a more optimistic take on the year to come. As we chatted about how the Trump and Elon Musk duo is prioritizing (at least rhetorically) cutting through red tape to deploy energy projects more expeditiously, a potential upside of the new administration, Beebe jumped in with an even riskier prediction.
“I think that we will see a meaningful number of Republicans in the Senate and the House start to champion climate solutions and sort of attempt to make climate resiliency and fighting climate change more of a Republican issue,” he told me. Like many an optimist before him, Beebe cited the letter signed by 18 Republicans from the House of Representatives asking speaker Mike Johnson to preserve the Inflation Reduction Act’s energy tax credits as evidence that Republicans are getting on board with the energy transition, although a number of the signatories have since lost their jobs.
“Nixon created the EPA. Teddy Roosevelt was a real conservationist. They’re called the conservatives — they like to conserve things, including natural resources. And that has been a hallmark for at least a century — a century-and-a-half — of that party,” Beebe explained. When pro-Trump investors such as Marc Andreessen and Ben Horowitz use terms like “American dynamism,” what he hears “through the fog machines of those kinds of phrases” is a discussion about American competitiveness, which inherently includes a strong, sustainability-oriented energy policy.
Nuclear fission, in particular, looks like a prime target for investment, Beebe told me. He has been happily surprised to see the upswell in bipartisan support for the re-opening and buildout of new reactors, categorizing Microsoft’s effort to restart Three Mile Island as a “watershed event of 2024.” Now, Obvious is open to funding small modular reactors and next-generation nuclear fission tech, which it hadn’t considered before.
If you are feeling emotionally torn after all this, well, same. There were of course points of more neutral overlap between the two investors — both think the power demands of AI simultaneously pose a daunting challenge and a major opportunity to drive deployment of clean, firm energy, and both agree that the climate tech world will soldier on, buoyed by state and local support, regardless of what happens in the White House.
But ultimately, are we poised for a grueling year of climate tech contraction and insolvency? Or a year where investors wisely deploy capital in an environment of emerging bipartisan consensus? Perhaps some of both? As Jacobs told me, regardless of what investors think, the next year, four years, and beyond will be driven first and foremost by customer demand for decarbonization, resilience, and cost savings.
“That is what drives the transition. It’s not financiers who drive it. It’s not technologists who drive it. It’s not even policy makers who drive it. It’s people who want something, they have a problem to solve. And if we solve that problem for them, we tend to get paid.”
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When I reached out to climate tech investors on Tuesday to gauge their reaction to the Senate’s proposed overhaul of the clean energy tax credits, I thought I might get a standard dose of can-do investor optimism. Though the proposal from the Senate Finance committee would cut tax credits for wind and solar, it would preserve them for other sources of clean energy, such as geothermal, nuclear, and batteries — areas of significant focus and investment for many climate-focused venture firms.
But the vibe ended up being fairly divided. While many investors expressed cautious optimism about what this latest text could mean for their particular portfolio companies, others worried that by slashing incentives for solar and wind, the bill’s implications for the energy transition at large would be categorically terrible.
“We have investments in nuclear, we have investments in geothermal, we have investments in carbon capture. All of that stuff is probably going to get a boost from this, because so much money is going to be flowing out of quote, unquote, ‘slightly more established’ zero emissions technologies,” Susan Su, a climate tech investor at Toba Capital, told me. “So we’re diversified. But for me, as a human being, and as somebody that cares about climate change and cares about having an abundant energy future, this is very short-sighted.”
Bigger picture aside, the idea that the Senate proposal could lead to more capital for non-solar, non-wind clean energy technologies was shared by other investors, many of whom responded with tentative hope when I asked for their thoughts on the bill.
“The extension of the nuclear and geothermal tax credits compared to the House bill is really important,” Rachel Slaybaugh, a climate tech investor at DCVC, told me. The venture firm has invested in the nuclear fission company Radiant Nuclear, the fusion company Zap Energy, and the geothermal startup Fervo Energy. As for how Slaybaugh has been feeling since the bill’s passage as well as the general sentiment among DCVC’s portfolio companies, she told me that “it's mostly been the relief of like, thank you for at least supporting clean, firm and bringing transferability back.”
Indeed, the proposed bill not only fully preserves tax credits for most forms of zero-emissions power until 2034, but also keeps tax credit transferability on the books. This financing mechanism is essential for renewable energy developers who cannot fully utilize the tax credits themselves, as it allows them to sell credits to other companies for cash. All of this puts nascent clean, firm technologies on far more stable footing than after the House’s version of the bill was released last month.
Carmichael Roberts of Breakthrough Energy Ventures echoed these sentiments via email when he told me, “the Senate proposal is a meaningful improvement over the House version for clean energy companies. It creates more predictability and a clearer runway for emerging technologies that are not yet fully commercial.” Breakthrough invests in multiple fusion, geothermal, and long-duration energy storage startups.
Amy Duffuor, co-founder of Azolla Ventures and managing director at the Prime Impact Fund also acknowledged in an email that it’s “encouraging” that the Senate has “seen the way forward on clean firm baseload power.” However, she issued a warning that the unsettled policy environment is leading to “material risks and uncertainties for start-ups reliant on current tax incentives.”
Solar and wind are by far the most widely deployed and cost-competitive forms of renewable energy. So while they now mainly exist outside the remit of venture firms, there are numerous climate-focused startups that operate downstream of this tech. Think about all the software companies working to optimize load forecasting, implement demand response programs, facilitate power purchase agreements, monitor grid assets, and so much more. By proxy, these startups are now threatened by the Senate’s proposal to phase out the investment and production tax credits for solar and wind projects beginning next year, with a full termination after 2027.
“I think solar and wind will survive. But it's going to be like 80% of the deals don't pencil for a long time,” Ryan Guay, co-founder and president of the software startup Euclid Power, told me. Euclid makes data management and workflow tools for renewable project developers, so if the tax credits for solar and wind go kaput, that will mean less business for them. In the meantime though, Guay expects to be especially busy as developers rush to build projects before their tax credit eligibility expires.
As Guay explained to me, it’s not just the rescission of tax credits that he believes will kill such a large percent of solar and wind projects. It’s the combined impact of those cuts, the bill’s foreign entity of concern rules restricting materials from China, and Trump’s tariffs on Chinese-made components. “You’re not giving the industry enough time to actually build that robust domestic supply chain, which I agree needs to happen,” Guay told me. “I’m all for the security of the grid, but our supply chains are already very constrained.”
Many investors also expressed frustration and confusion over why Senate Republicans, and the Trump administration at large, would target incentives for solar and wind — the fastest growing domestic energy sources — while touting an agenda of energy dominance and American leadership. Some even used the president’s own language around energy issues to deride the One Big Beautiful Bill’s treatment of solar and wind as well as its repeal of the electric vehicle tax credits.
“The rollbacks of the IRA weaken the U.S. in key areas like energy dominance and the auto industry, which is rapidly becoming synonymous with the EV industry,” Matt Eggers, a managing director at the climate-tech investment firm Prelude Ventures, wrote to me in an email. “This bill will still ultimately cost us economic growth, jobs, and strategic positioning on the world stage.”
“The only real question is, are we going to double down on the future and on American dynamism?” Andrew Beebe, managing director at Obvious Ventures, asked in an emailed response. “Or are we going to cling to the past by trying to hold back a future of abundant, clean, and affordable energy?”
Su wanted to focus on the bigger picture too. While the Senate’s proposal gives tax credits for solar and wind a much longer phaseout period than the House’s bill — which would have required projects to start construction within 60 days of the bill’s passage and enter service by 2028 — Su still doesn’t think the Senate’s version is much to celebrate.
“The specific changes that came through in the Senate version are really kind of nibbling at the edges and at the end of the day, this is a huge blow for our emissions trajectory,” Su told me. She’s always been a big believer that there’s still a significant amount of cutting edge innovation in the solar and wind sectors, she told me. For example, Toba is an investor in Swift Solar, a startup developing high-efficiency perovskite solar cells. Nixing tax credits that benefit the solar industry will hit these smaller players especially hard, she told me.
With the Senate now working to finalize the bill, investors agreed that the current proposal is certainly not the worst case scenario. But many did say it was worse than they had — perhaps overly optimistically — been holding out for.
“To me, it's really bad because it now has a major Senate stamp of approval,” Su told me. The Senate usually tempers the more extreme, partisan impulses of the House. Thus, the closer a bill gets to clearing the Senate, the closer it usually is to its final form. Now, it seems, the reconciliation bill is suddenly feeling very real for people.
“At least back between May 22 and [Monday], we didn't know what was going to get amended, so there was still this window of hope that things could change more dramatically." Su said. Now that window is slowly closing, and the picture of what incentives will — and won’t — survive is coming into greater focus.
Rob and Jesse talk with John Henry Harris, the cofounder and CEO of Harbinger Motors.
You might not think that often about medium-duty trucks, but they’re all around you: ambulances, UPS and FedEx delivery trucks, school buses. And although they make up a relatively small share of vehicles on the road, they generate an outsized amount of carbon pollution. They’re also a surprisingly ripe target for electrification, because so many medium-duty trucks drive fewer than 150 miles a day.
On this week’s episode of Shift Key, Rob and Jesse talk with John Henry Harris, the cofounder and CEO of Harbinger Motors. Harbinger is a Los Angeles-based startup that sells electric and hybrid chassis for medium-duty vehicles, such as delivery vans, moving trucks, and ambulances.
Rob, John, and Jesse chat about why medium-duty trucking is unlike any other vehicle segment, how to design an electric truck to last 20 years, and how President Trump’s tariffs are already stalling out manufacturing firms. Shift Key is hosted by Jesse Jenkins, a professor of energy systems engineering at Princeton University, and Robinson Meyer, Heatmap’s executive editor.
Subscribe to “Shift Key” and find this episode on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Amazon, YouTube, or wherever you get your podcasts.
You can also add the show’s RSS feed to your podcast app to follow us directly.
Here is an excerpt from our conversation:
Robinson Meyer: What is it like building a final assembly plant — a U.S. factory — in this moment?
John Harris: I would say lots of people talk about how excited they are about U.S. manufacturing, but that's very different than putting their money where their mouth is. Building a final assembly line, like we have — our team here is really good, that they made it feel not that hard. The challenge is the whole supply chain.
If we look at what we build here in-house at Harbinger, we have a final assembly line where we bolt parts together to make chassis. We also have two sub-component assembly lines where we take copper and make motors, and where we take cells and make batteries. All three of those lines work pretty well. We're pumping out chassis, and they roll out the door, and we sell them to people, which is great. But it’s all the stuff that goes into those, that's the most challenging. There's a lot of trade policy at certain hours of the day, on certain days of the week — depending on when we check — that is theoretically supposed to encourage us manufacturing.
But it's really not because of the volatility. It costs us an enormous amount to build the supply chain, to feed these lines. And when we have volatile trade policy, our reaction, and everyone else's reaction, is to just pause. It’s not to spend more money on U.S. manufacturing, because we were already doing that. We were spending a lot on U.S. manufacturing as part of our core approach to manufacturing.
The latest trade policy has caused us to spend less money on U.S. manufacturing — not more, because we're unclear on what is the demand environment going to be, what is the policy going to be next week? We were getting ready to make major investments to take certain manufacturing tasks in our supply chain out of China and move them to Mexico, for example. Now we’re not. We were getting ready to invest in certain kinds of automation to do things in house, and now we're waiting. So the volatility is dramatically shrinking investment in US manufacturing, including ours.
Meyer: And can you just explain, why did you make that decision to pause investment and how does trade policy affect that decision?
Harris: When we had 25% tariffs on China, if we take content out of China and move it to Mexico, we break even — if that. We might still end up underwater. That's because there's better automation in China. There's much higher labor productivity. And — this one is always shocking to people — there’s lower logistics costs. When we move stuff from Shenzhen to our factory, in many cases it costs us less than moving shipments from Monterey.
Mentioned:
CalStart’s data on medium-duty electric trucks deployed in the U.S.
Here’s the chart that John showed Rob and Jesse:
Courtesy of Harbinger
It draws on data from Bloomberg in China, the ICCT, and the Calstart ZET Dashboard in the United States.
Jesse’s case for EVs with gas tanks — which are called extended range electric vehicles
On xAI, residential solar, and domestic lithium
Current conditions: Indonesia has issued its highest alert level due to the ongoing eruption of Mount Lewotobi Laki-laki • 10 million people from Missouri to Michigan are at risk of large hail and damaging winds today • Tropical Storm Erick, the earliest “E” storm on record in the eastern Pacific Ocean, could potentially strengthen into a major hurricane before making landfall near Acapulco, Mexico, on Thursday.
The NAACP and the Southern Environmental Law Center said Tuesday that they intend to sue Elon Musk’s artificial intelligence company xAI over alleged Clean Air Act violations at its Memphis facility. Per the lawsuit, xAI failed to obtain the required permits for the use of the 26 gas turbines that power its supercomputer, and in doing so, the company also avoided equipping the turbines with technology that would have reduced emissions. “xAI’s turbines are collectively one of the largest, or potentially the largest, industrial source of nitrogen oxides in Shelby County,” the lawsuit claims.
The SELC has additionally said that residents who live near the xAI facility already face cancer risks four times above the national average, and opponents have argued that xAI’s lack of urgency in responding to community concerns about the pollution is a case of “environmental racism.” In a statement Tuesday, xAI responded to the threat of a lawsuit by claiming the “temporary power generation units are operating in compliance with all applicable laws,” and said it intends to equip the turbines with the necessary technology to reduce emissions going forward.
Shares of several residential solar companies plummeted Tuesday after the Senate Finance Committee declined to preserve related Inflation Reduction Act investment tax credits. As my colleague Matthew Zeitlin reported, Sunrun shares fell 40%, “bringing the company’s market cap down by almost $900 million to $1.3 billion,” after a brief jump at the end of last week “due to optimism that the Senate Finance bill might include friendlier language for its business model.”
That never materialized. Instead, the Finance Committee’s draft proposed terminating the residential clean energy tax credit for any systems, including residential solar, six months after the bill is signed, as well as the investment and production tax credits for residential solar. SolarEdge and Enphase also suffered from the news, with shares down 33% and 24%, respectively. You can read Matthew’s full analysis here.
Chevron announced Tuesday that it has acquired 125,000 net acres of the Smackover Formation in southwest Arkansas and northeast Texas to get into domestic lithium extraction. Chevron’s acquisition follows an earlier move by Exxon Mobil to do the same, with lithium representing a key resource for the transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy sources “that would allow the company to pivot if oil and gas demands wane in the coming decades,” Bloomberg writes.
“Establishing domestic and resilient lithium supply chains is essential not only to maintaining U.S. energy leadership but also to meeting the growing demand from customers,” Jeff Gustavson, the president of Chevron New Energies, said in a Tuesday press release. The Liberty Owl project, which was part of Chevron’s acquisition from TerraVolta Resources, is “expected to have an initial production capacity of at least 25,000 tonnes of lithium carbonate per year, which is enough lithium to power about 500,000 electric vehicles annually,” Houston Business Journal reports.
The Federal Emergency Management Agency prepared a memo titled “Abolishing FEMA” at the direction of Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem, describing how its functions can be “drastically reformed, transferred to another agency, or abolished in their entirety” as soon as the end of 2025. While only Congress can technically eliminate the agency, the March memo, obtained and reviewed by Bloomberg, describes potential changes like “eliminating long-term housing assistance for disaster survivors, halting enrollments in the National Flood Insurance Program, and providing smaller amounts of aid for fewer incidents — moves that by design would dramatically limit the federal government’s role in disaster response.”
In May, FEMA’s acting administrator, Cameron Hamilton, was fired one day after defending the existence of the department he’d been appointed to oversee when testifying before the House Appropriations subcommittee. An internal FEMA memo from the same month described the agency’s “critical functions” as being at “high risk” of failure due to “significant personnel losses in advance of the 2025 Hurricane Season.” President Trump has, on several occasions, expressed a desire to eliminate FEMA, as recommended by the Project 2025 playbook from the Heritage Foundation. The March “Abolishing FEMA” memo “just means you should not expect to see FEMA on the ground unless it’s 9/11, Katrina, Superstorm Sandy,” Carrie Speranza, the president of the U.S. council of the International Association of Emergency Managers, told Bloomberg.
The Spanish government on Tuesday released its report on the causes of the April 28 blackout that left much of the nation, as well as parts of Portugal, without power for more than 12 hours. Ecological Transition Minister Sara Aagesen, who heads Spain’s energy policy, told reporters that a voltage surge in the south of Spain had triggered a “chain reaction of disconnections” that led to the widespread power loss, and blamed the nation’s state-owned grid operator Red Eléctrica for “poor planning” and failing to have enough thermal power stations online to control the dynamic voltage, the Associated Press reports. Additionally, Aagesen said that utilities had preventively shut off some power plants when the disruptions started, which could have helped the system stay online. “We have a solid narrative of events and a verified explanation that allows us to reflect and to act as we surely will,” Aagesen went on, responding to criticisms that Spain’s renewable-heavy energy mix was to blame for the blackout. “We believe in the energy transition and we know it’s not an ideological question but one of this country’s principal vectors of growth when it comes to re-industrialisation opportunities.”
Metrograph
“It seems that with the current political climate, with the removal of any reference to climate change on U.S. government websites, with the gutting of environmental laws, and the recent devastating fires in Los Angeles, this trilogy of films is still urgently relevant.” —Filmmaker Jennifer Baichwal on the upcoming screenings of the Anthropocene trilogy, co-created with Nicholas de Pencier and photographer Edward Burtynsky between 2006 and 2018, at the Metrograph in New York City.