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On artificial intelligence, the polar vortex, and LNG

Current conditions: Torrential rains triggered landslides in Indonesia that left at least 17 people dead • Temperatures could reach 115 degrees Fahrenheit in parts of Australia as an extreme heat wave lingers over half the country • The forecast is looking good for some much-needed rain in Southern California this weekend.
A truly historic winter storm slammed Gulf Coast states yesterday, bringing record-breaking snowfall, hazardous ice, and dangerously low temperatures to a region not accustomed to this kind of weather. The system triggered the first-ever blizzard warning along the Gulf Coast. Roughly 4 inches of snow fell in Houston, Texas, the highest one-day snow event ever recorded for the city. About 9 inches blanketed New Orleans, shattering the previous one-day snow record, set in 1963, of 2.7 inches. Milton, Florida, recorded more than 8 inches of snow, double the 1954 state record. An early estimate from AccuWeather puts the economic losses from this storm at somewhere between $14 billion and $17 billion, including “the cost of damage and repairs from burst water pipes, as well as the increased demand for heating and energy.” At least 10 people are known to have died, and tens of thousands are without power.

This extreme winter weather is being driven by the polar vortex, which is a blob of low-pressure and cold air that circulates around the poles. As the National Weather Service explains, “many times during winter in the northern hemisphere, the polar vortex will expand, sending cold air southward with the jet stream.” Researchers are looking into how human-caused climate change is affecting the polar vortex. NOAA stratosphere expert Amy Butler said changes in surface temperature and pressure that result from sea ice loss could alter the atmospheric waves that bump up against the polar vortex. “So the idea would be that even though you have an overall warming trend, you might see an increase in the severity of individual winter weather events in some locations,” she said.
President Trump yesterday announced up to $500 billion in private sector investment to build dozens of AI data centers and their related energy infrastructure across the U.S. OpenAI, SoftBank, and Oracle are among the tech companies combining their efforts under a new joint venture called Stargate. The company will start with a $100 billion commitment, potentially rising to $500 billion over four years. Its first data center will open in Texas. The Associated Press noted that the Stargate project has been in the works for some time. There was no mention of how these data centers would be powered, whether by renewables or fossil fuels. “They have to produce a lot of electricity, and we'll make it possible for them to get that production done very easily at their own plants if they want,” Trump said. “They’ll build at the plant, they’ll build energy generation and that will be incredible.” Last month the Department of Energy issued a report finding that data centers consumed about 4.4% of all of America’s electricity in 2023, and that could reach 12% by 2028.
Somewhat relatedly, tech giant Microsoft signed a deal to buy millions of carbon credits from a Brazilian startup called Re.green that restores the Amazon rainforest. The purchase, which the Financial Times estimates could be worth $200 million, is meant to offset the company’s growing AI emissions. Microsoft’s emissions grew by 30% in 2023 compared to 2020. It has been investing heavily in emissions solutions including direct air carbon capture, nuclear power, carbon-absorbing rocks, and biochar. The new Re.green deal is for 3.5 million credits over 25 years.
In the same speech announcing the AI data center investments, President Trump also said he would issue an executive order to make more water available in California. The comment came as the president discussed the ongoing fire crisis in the state. On Monday he issued a memorandum titled “Putting People Over Fish: Stopping Radical Environmentalism to Provide Water to Southern California,” in which he directed the Interior and Commerce secretaries to “route more water from the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta to other parts of the state.” The director of California’s Department of Water Resources told CalMatters that Trump’s ideas for water management would “do nothing to improve current water supplies in the Los Angeles basin.”
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President Trump yesterday officially ended the Biden administration’s pause on liquefied natural gas export permits. According to Reuters, the decision “could pave the way for almost 100 million metric tons per annum of additional LNG by 2031 by projects that are significantly advanced.” LNG companies applauded the move. Former President Biden issued the pause so that the DOE could study the environmental and economic impacts of LNG exports. The subsequent DOE report found that:
Through the end of January, Lyft is giving $1.50 ride credits for every time a customer pays NYC’s new $1.50 rideshare congestion fee.
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There is a heat wave in Europe, the world’s fastest warming continent. And so, as you may have heard, a perennial topic of online climate discourse has returned: Why don’t more Europeans have air conditioning?
I’m partially convinced this is psy op, or at least a figment of how social media organizes attention. I have a hypothesis that various “For You” page algorithms, especially that of the social network X, began to reward content that performed unusually well across national borders a few years ago. Since then, the amount of America vs. Europe content has surged. (Of course, writers have been comparing American and European lifestyles for much longer than that.)
Suffice it to say, though: It’s a fraught topic. I’ve assumed that as extreme heat gets worse as the climate changes, Europeans will simply get on with it and install AC, much as Americans in the Pacific Northwest have done. Yet there are cultural and regulatory obstacles to AC’s growth in Europe.
I’m sure I’ll write about it in the future, but for now I want to get a grip on the facts themselves. And so as a Friday special, I present to you — the facts about European AC, as I understand it:
Thanks so much for reading, and talk soon.
The movement against data centers is raising up a raison d'etre of the anti-renewables movement: protecting would-be farmland.
Farm owners and operators across the U.S. are winning national headlines almost every week for rejecting big dollar offers from data center developers. In Hanover County, Virginia, protestors are chanting “Grow Tomatoes, Not Data Centers.” In Pennsylvania and elsewhere, Republican legislators are mulling proposals to block the sale of so-called “prime farmland” for data center development. In Texas, the fight over data center development has engulfed the race for the state’s ag commissioner seat. In the Midwest, where agriculture reigns supreme, statewide races and congressional campaigns are slowly but surely being defined by the issue. Like in Nebraska where Austin Ahlman, an independent candidate running for Congress in Nebraska’s first district, told me he believes the data center backlash is reflective of a populist politics that broadly criticize elites and top-down control of the economy: “I think sometimes people misunderstand the anxieties of rural Americans when it comes to these data centers because a lot of their fears are about control long term.”
Unlike the farmland backlash around renewable energy development, the loudest critics are on the anti-monopolist left. On Wednesday, the prominent opposition group Food and Water Watch signaled farmland could soon be a watchword in the national data center debate – in a fashion analogous to what we’ve seen with renewable energy. The organization’s blog post entitled “The AI Data Center Boom Is Coming for Farmers” declared data centers verboten because of the threat they posed to “small and midsized family farmers.” Mitch Jones, deputy director of the campaign outfit, said he believes the threat to farmland is “a compelling reason to oppose data center development” but that his organization’s fight is primarily focused on protecting small business owners and an anti-monopoly sentiment.
“If data centers are coming into their areas, this puts even more pressure on them. It drives up the cost of their electricity, just as it does anyone else. It competes with them for water for crops, and it affects the value of their land in a perverse way,” Jones told me.
None of this should be surprising. An agricultural workforce has always been a good barometer for figuring out if a community will accept new infrastructure of any kind. We’ve seen as much time and time again with renewable energy, carbon capture, fossil energy and mining, just to name a few industries.
This same rule is true with data centers. In April, county commissioners in Kosciusko County, Indiana, unanimously rejected a Prologis data center; nearly 90% of acreage in Kosciusko County is being actively farmed, according to the Heatmap Pro database. Linn County, Iowa, in February enacted a rule severely restricting data center development in unincorporated areas; almost three-fourths of the land is used by the ag sector. A potential Amazon facility is causing heartburn in Clinton County, Ohio; nearly all land in the county is used for farming and utility-scale solar development has a recent history of conflict with landowners.
To be candid, I’m struck by the similarity in the backlash over siting data centers on farmland – a resemblance so close that some counties are starting to restrict renewable energy and data center development on farmland at the same time. This week, Eau Claire County, Wisconsin created a new “farmland preservation plan” discouraging utility-scale solar energy and data centers on any potential farmland. (More than 40% of land in this county is currently being used for farmland, according to Heatmap Pro.)
Jones at Food and Water Watch said his organization taking on the “protect farmland” mantle had nothing to do with the success this argument has had against renewable energy. “That thought never entered my head,” he told me, adding that if communities respond to the data center backlash by taking steps that short-circuit solar and wind too, that’s “a coincidence.”
I kept pressing. What if the pivot to farmland protection leads to more communities restricting renewable energy along with the data centers? “If you’re looking for a reason to oppose solar and wind, you can come up with that without having to attach data centers to it,” Jones said. “We’ve seen rural communities oppose solar and wind before data centers blew up across the country. It’s nothing new.”
And more of the week’s top news around project fights.
1. Virginia Beach, Virginia – The right-wing interest group lawsuit against Dominion Energy’s Coastal Virginia offshore wind is now dead, concluding one of the wackier tales of the Trump 2.0 energy era.
2. Box Elder County, Utah – Call it the Box Elder County massacre.
3. Davidson County, Tennessee – We have the latest updates in the Nashville Zoo data center drama and they’re a doozy and a half.
4. Clark County, Ohio – Yet another utility-scale solar farm is in the Ohio state permitting graveyard.