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On artificial intelligence, the polar vortex, and LNG
Current conditions: Torrential rains triggered landslides in Indonesia that left at least 17 people dead • Temperatures could reach 115 degrees Fahrenheit in parts of Australia as an extreme heat wave lingers over half the country • The forecast is looking good for some much-needed rain in Southern California this weekend.
A truly historic winter storm slammed Gulf Coast states yesterday, bringing record-breaking snowfall, hazardous ice, and dangerously low temperatures to a region not accustomed to this kind of weather. The system triggered the first-ever blizzard warning along the Gulf Coast. Roughly 4 inches of snow fell in Houston, Texas, the highest one-day snow event ever recorded for the city. About 9 inches blanketed New Orleans, shattering the previous one-day snow record, set in 1963, of 2.7 inches. Milton, Florida, recorded more than 8 inches of snow, double the 1954 state record. An early estimate from AccuWeather puts the economic losses from this storm at somewhere between $14 billion and $17 billion, including “the cost of damage and repairs from burst water pipes, as well as the increased demand for heating and energy.” At least 10 people are known to have died, and tens of thousands are without power.
A snowy Bourbon Street in New Orleans.Michael DeMocker/Getty Images
This extreme winter weather is being driven by the polar vortex, which is a blob of low-pressure and cold air that circulates around the poles. As the National Weather Service explains, “many times during winter in the northern hemisphere, the polar vortex will expand, sending cold air southward with the jet stream.” Researchers are looking into how human-caused climate change is affecting the polar vortex. NOAA stratosphere expert Amy Butler said changes in surface temperature and pressure that result from sea ice loss could alter the atmospheric waves that bump up against the polar vortex. “So the idea would be that even though you have an overall warming trend, you might see an increase in the severity of individual winter weather events in some locations,” she said.
President Trump yesterday announced up to $500 billion in private sector investment to build dozens of AI data centers and their related energy infrastructure across the U.S. OpenAI, SoftBank, and Oracle are among the tech companies combining their efforts under a new joint venture called Stargate. The company will start with a $100 billion commitment, potentially rising to $500 billion over four years. Its first data center will open in Texas. The Associated Press noted that the Stargate project has been in the works for some time. There was no mention of how these data centers would be powered, whether by renewables or fossil fuels. “They have to produce a lot of electricity, and we'll make it possible for them to get that production done very easily at their own plants if they want,” Trump said. “They’ll build at the plant, they’ll build energy generation and that will be incredible.” Last month the Department of Energy issued a report finding that data centers consumed about 4.4% of all of America’s electricity in 2023, and that could reach 12% by 2028.
Somewhat relatedly, tech giant Microsoft signed a deal to buy millions of carbon credits from a Brazilian startup called Re.green that restores the Amazon rainforest. The purchase, which the Financial Times estimates could be worth $200 million, is meant to offset the company’s growing AI emissions. Microsoft’s emissions grew by 30% in 2023 compared to 2020. It has been investing heavily in emissions solutions including direct air carbon capture, nuclear power, carbon-absorbing rocks, and biochar. The new Re.green deal is for 3.5 million credits over 25 years.
In the same speech announcing the AI data center investments, President Trump also said he would issue an executive order to make more water available in California. The comment came as the president discussed the ongoing fire crisis in the state. On Monday he issued a memorandum titled “Putting People Over Fish: Stopping Radical Environmentalism to Provide Water to Southern California,” in which he directed the Interior and Commerce secretaries to “route more water from the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta to other parts of the state.” The director of California’s Department of Water Resources told CalMatters that Trump’s ideas for water management would “do nothing to improve current water supplies in the Los Angeles basin.”
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President Trump yesterday officially ended the Biden administration’s pause on liquefied natural gas export permits. According to Reuters, the decision “could pave the way for almost 100 million metric tons per annum of additional LNG by 2031 by projects that are significantly advanced.” LNG companies applauded the move. Former President Biden issued the pause so that the DOE could study the environmental and economic impacts of LNG exports. The subsequent DOE report found that:
Through the end of January, Lyft is giving $1.50 ride credits for every time a customer pays NYC’s new $1.50 rideshare congestion fee.
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New York City may very well be the epicenter of this particular fight.
It’s official: the Moss Landing battery fire has galvanized a gigantic pipeline of opposition to energy storage systems across the country.
As I’ve chronicled extensively throughout this year, Moss Landing was a technological outlier that used outdated battery technology. But the January incident played into existing fears and anxieties across the U.S. about the dangers of large battery fires generally, latent from years of e-scooters and cellphones ablaze from faulty lithium-ion tech. Concerned residents fighting projects in their backyards have successfully seized upon the fact that there’s no known way to quickly extinguish big fires at energy storage sites, and are winning particularly in wildfire-prone areas.
How successful was Moss Landing at enlivening opponents of energy storage? Since the California disaster six months ago, more than 6 gigawatts of BESS has received opposition from activists explicitly tying their campaigns to the incident, Heatmap Pro® researcher Charlie Clynes told me in an interview earlier this month.
Matt Eisenson of Columbia University’s Sabin Center for Climate Law agreed that there’s been a spike in opposition, telling me that we are currently seeing “more instances of opposition to battery storage than we have in past years.” And while Eisenson said he couldn’t speak to the impacts of the fire specifically on that rise, he acknowledged that the disaster set “a harmful precedent” at the same time “battery storage is becoming much more present.”
“The type of fire that occurred there is unlikely to occur with modern technology, but the Moss Landing example [now] tends to come up across the country,” Eisenson said.
Some of the fresh opposition is in rural agricultural communities such as Grundy County, Illinois, which just banned energy storage systems indefinitely “until the science is settled.” But the most crucial place to watch seems to be New York City, for two reasons: One, it’s where a lot of energy storage is being developed all at once; and two, it has a hyper-saturated media market where criticism can receive more national media attention than it would in other parts of the country.
Someone who’s felt this pressure firsthand is Nick Lombardi, senior vice president of project development for battery storage company NineDot Energy. NineDot and other battery storage developers had spent years laying the groundwork in New York City to build out the energy storage necessary for the city to meet its net-zero climate goals. More recently they’ve faced crowds of protestors against a battery storage facility in Queens, and in Staten Island endured hecklers at public meetings.
“We’ve been developing projects in New York City for a few years now, and for a long time we didn’t run into opposition to our projects or really any sort of meaningful negative coverage in the press. All of that really changed about six months ago,” Lombardi said.
The battery storage developer insists that opposition to the technology is not popular and represents a fringe group. Lombardi told me that the company has more than 50 battery storage sites in development across New York City, and only faced “durable opposition” at “three or four sites.” The company also told me it has yet to receive the kind of email complaint flood that would demonstrate widespread opposition.
This is visible in the politicians who’ve picked up the anti-BESS mantle: GOP mayoral candidate Curtis Sliwa’s become a champion for the cause, but mayor Eric Adams’ “City of Yes” campaign itself would provide for the construction of these facilities. (While Democratic mayoral nominee Zohran Mamdani has not focused on BESS, it’s quite unlikely the climate hawkish democratic socialist would try to derail these projects.)
Lombardi told me he now views Moss Landing as a “catalyst” for opposition in the NYC metro area. “Suddenly there’s national headlines about what’s happening,” he told me. “There were incidents in the past that were in the news, but Moss Landing was headline news for a while, and that combined with the fact people knew it was happening in their city combined to create a new level of awareness.”
He added that six months after the blaze, it feels like developers in the city have a better handle on the situation. “We’ve spent a lot of time in reaction to that to make sure we’re organized and making sure we’re in contact with elected officials, community officials, [and] coordinated with utilities,” Lombardi said.
And more on the biggest conflicts around renewable energy projects in Kentucky, Ohio, and Maryland.
1. St. Croix County, Wisconsin - Solar opponents in this county see themselves as the front line in the fight over Trump’s “Big Beautiful” law and its repeal of Inflation Reduction Act tax credits.
2. Barren County, Kentucky - How much wood could a Wood Duck solar farm chuck if it didn’t get approved in the first place? We may be about to find out.
3. Iberia Parish, Louisiana - Another potential proxy battle over IRA tax credits is going down in Louisiana, where residents are calling to extend a solar moratorium that is about to expire so projects can’t start construction.
4. Baltimore County, Maryland – The fight over a transmission line in Maryland could have lasting impacts for renewable energy across the country.
5. Worcester County, Maryland – Elsewhere in Maryland, the MarWin offshore wind project appears to have landed in the crosshairs of Trump’s Environmental Protection Agency.
6. Clark County, Ohio - Consider me wishing Invenergy good luck getting a new solar farm permitted in Ohio.
7. Searcy County, Arkansas - An anti-wind state legislator has gone and posted a slide deck that RWE provided to county officials, ginning up fresh uproar against potential wind development.
Talking local development moratoria with Heatmap’s own Charlie Clynes.
This week’s conversation is special: I chatted with Charlie Clynes, Heatmap Pro®’s very own in-house researcher. Charlie just released a herculean project tracking all of the nation’s county-level moratoria and restrictive ordinances attacking renewable energy. The conclusion? Essentially a fifth of the country is now either closed off to solar and wind entirely or much harder to build. I decided to chat with him about the work so you could hear about why it’s an important report you should most definitely read.
The following chat was lightly edited for clarity. Let’s dive in.
Tell me about the project you embarked on here.
Heatmap’s research team set out last June to call every county in the United States that had zoning authority, and we asked them if they’ve passed ordinances to restrict renewable energy, or if they have renewable energy projects in their communities that have been opposed. There’s specific criteria we’ve used to determine if an ordinance is restrictive, but by and large, it’s pretty easy to tell once a county sends you an ordinance if it is going to restrict development or not.
The vast majority of counties responded, and this has been a process that’s allowed us to gather an extraordinary amount of data about whether counties have been restricting wind, solar and other renewables. The topline conclusion is that restrictions are much worse than previously accounted for. I mean, 605 counties now have some type of restriction on renewable energy — setbacks that make it really hard to build wind or solar, moratoriums that outright ban wind and solar. Then there’s 182 municipality laws where counties don’t have zoning jurisdiction.
We’re seeing this pretty much everywhere throughout the country. No place is safe except for states who put in laws preventing jurisdictions from passing restrictions — and even then, renewable energy companies are facing uphill battles in getting to a point in the process where the state will step in and overrule a county restriction. It’s bad.
Getting into the nitty-gritty, what has changed in the past few years? We’ve known these numbers were increasing, but what do you think accounts for the status we’re in now?
One is we’re seeing a high number of renewables coming into communities. But I think attitudes started changing too, especially in places that have been fairly saturated with renewable energy like Virginia, where solar’s been a presence for more than a decade now. There have been enough projects where people have bad experiences that color their opinion of the industry as a whole.
There’s also a few narratives that have taken shape. One is this idea solar is eating up prime farmland, or that it’ll erode the rural character of that area. Another big one is the environment, especially with wind on bird deaths, even though the number of birds killed by wind sounds big until you compare it to other sources.
There are so many developers and so many projects in so many places of the world that there are examples where either something goes wrong with a project or a developer doesn’t follow best practices. I think those have a lot more staying power in the public perception of renewable energy than the many successful projects that go without a hiccup and don’t bother people.
Are people saying no outright to renewable energy? Or is this saying yes with some form of reasonable restrictions?
It depends on where you look and how much solar there is in a community.
One thing I’ve seen in Virginia, for example, is counties setting caps on the total acreage solar can occupy, and those will be only 20 acres above the solar already built, so it’s effectively blocking solar. In places that are more sparsely populated, you tend to see restrictive setbacks that have the effect of outright banning wind — mile-long setbacks are often insurmountable for developers. Or there’ll be regulations to constrict the scale of a project quite a bit but don’t ban the technologies outright.
What in your research gives you hope?
States that have administrations determined to build out renewables have started to override these local restrictions: Michigan, Illinois, Washington, California, a few others. This is almost certainly going to have an impact.
I think the other thing is there are places in red states that have had very good experiences with renewable energy by and large. Texas, despite having the most wind generation in the nation, has not seen nearly as much opposition to wind, solar, and battery storage. It’s owing to the fact people in Texas generally are inclined to support energy projects in general and have seen wind and solar bring money into these small communities that otherwise wouldn’t get a lot of attention.