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On the real copper gap, Illinois’ atomic mojo, and offshore headwinds

Current conditions: The deadliest avalanche in modern California history killed at least eight skiers near Lake Tahoe • Strong winds are raising the wildfire risk across vast swaths of the northern Plains, from Montana to the Dakotas, and the Southwest, especially New Mexico, Texas, and Oklahoma • Nairobi is bracing for days more of rain as the Kenyan capital battles severe flooding.
Last week, the Environmental Protection Agency repealed the “endangerment finding” that undergirds all federal greenhouse gas regulations, effectively eliminating the justification for curbs on carbon dioxide from tailpipes or smokestacks. That was great news for the nation’s shrinking fleet of coal-fired power plants. Now there’s even more help on the way from the Trump administration. The agency plans to curb rules on how much hazard pollutants, including mercury, coal plants are allowed to emit, The New York Times reported Wednesday, citing leaked internal documents. Senior EPA officials are reportedly expected to announce the regulatory change during a trip to Louisville, Kentucky on Friday. While coal plant owners will no doubt welcome less restrictive regulations, the effort may not do much to keep some of the nation’s dirtiest stations running. Despite the Trump administration’s orders to keep coal generators open past retirement, as Heatmap’s Matthew Zeitlin wrote in November, the plants keep breaking down.
At the same time, the blowback to the so-called climate killshot the EPA took by rescinding the endangerment finding has just begun. Environmental groups just filed a lawsuit challenging the agency’s interpretation of the Clean Air Act to cover only the effects of regional pollution, not global emissions, according to Landmark, a newsletter tracking climate litigation.
Copper prices — as readers of this newsletter are surely well aware — are booming as demand for the metal needed for virtually every electrical application skyrockets. Just last month, Amazon inked a deal with Rio Tinto to buy America’s first new copper output for its data center buildout. But new research from a leading mineral supply chain analyst suggests the U.S. can meet 145% of its annual demand using raw copper from overseas and domestic mines and from scrap. By contrast, China — the world’s largest consumer — can source just 40% of its copper that way. What the U.S. lacks, according to Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, is the downstream processing capacity to turn raw copper into the copper cathode manufacturers need. “The U.S. is producing more copper than it uses, and is far more self-reliant than China in terms of raw materials,” Benchmark analyst Albert Mackenzie told the Financial Times. The research calls into question the Trump administration’s mineral policy, which includes stockpiling copper from jointly-owned ventures in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and domestically. “Stockpiling metal ores doesn’t help if you don’t have midstream processing,” Stephen Empedocles, chief executive of US lobbying firm Clark Street Associates, told the newspaper.

Illinois generates more of its power from nuclear energy than any other state. Yet for years the state has banned construction of new reactors. Governor JB Pritzker, a Democrat, partially lifted the prohibition in 2023, allowing for development of as-yet-nonexistent small modular reactors. With excitement about deploying large reactors with time-tested designs now building, Pritzker last month signed legislation fully repealing the ban. In his state of the state address on Wednesday, the governor listed the expansion of atomic energy among his administration’s top priorities. “Illinois is already No. 1 in clean nuclear energy production,” he said. “That is a leadership mantle that we must hold onto.” Shortly afterward, he issued an executive order directing state agencies to help speed up siting and construction of new reactors. Asked what he thought of the governor’s move, Emmet Penney, a native Chicagoan and nuclear expert at the right-leaning Foundation for American Innovation, told me the state’s nuclear lead is “an advantage that Pritzker wisely wants to maintain.” He pointed out that the policy change seems to be copying New York Governor Kathy Hochul’s playbook. “The governor’s nuclear leadership in the Land of Lincoln — first repealing the moratorium and now this Hochul-inspired executive order — signal that the nuclear renaissance is a new bipartisan commitment.”
The U.S. is even taking an interest in building nuclear reactors in the nation that, until 1946, was the nascent American empire’s largest overseas territory. The Philippines built an American-made nuclear reactor in the 1980s, but abandoned the single-reactor project on the Bataan peninsula after the Chernobyl accident and the fall of the Ferdinand Marcos dictatorship that considered the plant a key state project. For years now, there’s been a growing push in Manila to meet the country’s soaring electricity needs by restarting work on the plant or building new reactors. But Washington has largely ignored those efforts, even as the Russians, Canadians, and Koreans eyed taking on the project. Now the Trump administration is lending its hand for deploying small modular reactors. The U.S. Trade and Development Agency just announced funding to help the utility MGEN conduct a technical review of U.S. SMR designs, NucNet reported Wednesday.
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Despite the American government’s crusade against the sector, Europe is going all in on offshore wind. For a glimpse of what an industry not thrust into legal turmoil by the federal government looks like, consider that just on Wednesday the homepage of the trade publication OffshoreWIND.biz featured stories about major advancements on at least three projects totaling nearly 5 gigawatts:
That’s not to say everything is — forgive me — breezy for the industry. Germany currently gives renewables priority when connecting to the grid, but a new draft law would give grid operators more discretion when it comes to offshore wind, according to a leaked document seen by Windpower Monthly.
American clean energy manufacturing is in retreat as the Trump administration’s attacks on consumer incentives have forced companies to reorient their strategies. But there is at least one company setting up its factories in the U.S. The sodium-ion battery startup Syntropic Power announced plans to build 2 gigawatts of storage projects in 2026. While the North Carolina-based company “does not reveal where it manufactures its battery systems,” Solar Power World reported, it “does say” it’s establishing manufacturing capacity in the U.S. “We’re making this move now because the U.S. market needs storage that can be deployed with confidence, supported by certification, insurance acceptance, and a secure domestic supply chain,” said Phillip Martin, Syntropic’s chief executive.
For years now, U.S. manufacturers have touted sodium-ion batteries as the next big thing, given that the minerals needed to store energy are more abundant and don’t afford China the same supply-chain advantage that lithium-ion packs do. But as my colleague Katie Brigham covered last April, it’s been difficult building a business around dethroning lithium. New entrants are trying proprietary chemistries to avoid the mistakes other companies made, as Katie wrote in October when the startup Alsym launched a new stationary battery product.
Last spring, Heron Power, the next-generation transformer manufacturer led by a former Tesla executive, raised $38 million in a Series A round. Weeks later, Spain’s entire grid collapsed from voltage fluctuations spurred by a shortage of thermal power and not enough inverters to handle the country’s vast output of solar power — the exact kind of problem Heron Power’s equipment is meant to solve. That real-life evidence, coupled with the general boom in electrical equipment, has clearly helped the sales pitch. On Wednesday, the company closed a $140 million Series B round co-led by the venture giants Andreessen Horowitz and Breakthrough Energy Ventures. “We need new, more capable solutions to keep pace with accelerating energy demand and the rapid growth of gigascale compute,” Drew Baglino, Heron’s founder and chief executive, said in a statement. “Too much of today’s electrical infrastructure is passive, clunky equipment designed decades ago. At Heron we are manifesting an alternative future, where modern power electronics enable projects to come online faster, the grid to operate more reliably, and scale affordably.”
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A new 60-home pilot program aims to expand vehicle-to-grid charging.
When energy experts imagine the grid of the future, they often dream of millions of electric vehicles moonlighting as mobile power banks, using their hefty batteries to send electricity back to the grid when it needs a boost. But despite rapid EV adoption, this utopia has remained largely out of reach. Most vehicles don’t yet support bidirectional power flow, and most markets lack incentives for customers to feed power back to the grid in the first place.
That’s finally starting to change. While vehicle-to-grid — a.k.a. V2G — technology is still in its earliest innings, a new Massachusetts program announced on Thursday is working to make the technology something closer to commonplace. Funded by the Massachusetts Clean Energy Center, the state’s economic development agency, the initiative will install 60 bidirectional charging systems in participating residents’ homes.
The program has already begun enrolling its first participants, joining a small but growing group of V2G demonstrations across the country. But the field remains so nascent that even a 60-home project stands out. Kip Hack, who leads the distributed energy resource management company EnergyHub’s EV work, told me he very much considers it a “leading program for North America.”
The Massachusetts initiative brings together a wide variety of partners: utility companies Eversource and National Grid, EnergyHub, and technology partners Sunrun and The Mobility House, which each provide the software and device integrations needed to connect various EV models to the grid. Depending on their vehicle, eligible customers will enroll in the program through either Sunrun or The Mobility House, which will then connect them to their utility’s existing demand flexibility program, ConnectedSolutions. This decade-old initiative pays customers to reduce strain on the grid by leveraging smart thermostats, batteries, and other commercial and industrial energy systems. Now EVs will join the mix.
“They don’t actually care what the participating technology is. They only care about the output,” EnergyHub’s president, Seth Frader-Thompson told me, referring to ConnectedSolutions’ technology-agnostic design, which runs on EnergyHub’s software platform. That means the program can readily incorporate new distributed energy resources as they become available, simplifying the entire process in a way that many other regions have yet to figure out. “So when V2G technology was ready, nobody had to create a new program. You already had a program structure, an incentive structure, et cetera, that you could just have these vehicles participate in.”
Each distributed energy asset enrolled in the program can earn up to $275 per average kilowatt of grid support provided during the summer months. But customers don’t receive that payment directly from their utility. Rather Sunrun and The Mobility House set their own customer incentive structures based on that underlying $275 per kilowatt value.
Chip Silverman, Sunrun’s director of grid services and virtual power plants, told me that its customers will receive a fixed payment simply for signing up, just as the company’s stationary battery storage customers do. That gets new participants in the door — they can then earn additional performance incentives if they actually discharge power back to the grid during a demand response event. “We want to incentivize people to plug in 5:00 p.m. to 8:00 p.m. on weeknights because we want to get you to try to hit the peak events whenever possible,” Silverman told me.
The pool of qualifying vehicles remains quite limited, however. Sunrun’s system only supports the Ford F-150 Lightning, while The Mobility House’s software integrates with chargers compatible with the Kia EV9, Volvo XC90, Polestar 3, and several Nissan Leaf models. Teslas with V2G capability — which today means just the Cybertruck — are not eligible. That’s because while every other vehicle in this program places the requisite DC to AC power converter within the wall charger, Tesla installs this hardware in the car itself. While that will likely prove to be a smarter, cheaper long-term approach, for now it doesn’t align with how utilities certify and approve grid-connected equipment.
Yet even at this early stage, with limited scale and narrow eligibility requirements, Massachusetts’ early adopters are already demonstrating the technology’s value. “It has been quite hot, unseasonably hot in New England these last several weeks,” Hack told me, explaining that participants’ EV batteries have already been tapped to discharge power “more than once” since enrollment began earlier this month.
The potential for far greater impact is enormous. “The size of the battery in the car is remarkable,” Frader-Thompson told me. While a typical home battery stores around 10 to 15 kilowatt-hours of energy, an EV battery can hold on the order of 70 to 100 kilowatt-hours. “So if the vehicle is plugged in, it essentially has the ability to export the equivalent of an entire residential battery every hour during an event,” he explained.
To truly turn V2G from a promising concept into a reliable grid resource, however, utilities and grid operators will need much more data on when these batteries are available and how much power EV owners are actually willing to provide. By the end of this summer, Massachusetts’ latest experiment could offer some of the first real-world answers.
On Trump’s power pledge, America’s offshore nuclear, and Japan’s offshore wind
Current conditions: A new heat dome is spreading temperatures above 100 degrees Fahrenheit across the Central United States, from Texas north to the Dakotas • Tropical Storm Bertha made landfall over southern Louisiana with winds of up to 45 miles per hour • Tasmania is facing a cold front with freezing wind chills.

On December 8, 1953 — just eight years after the United States demonstrated the destructive power of splitting atoms in the form of a mushroom cloud over Hiroshima — then-President Dwight D. Eisenhower pledged to lead the world in harnessing fission to constructive ends. In his famed “Atoms for Peace” speech, he vowed to help other nations build nuclear power stations that he believed would bring about a new era of global prosperity built atop a foundation of abundant electricity. Under the law Congress passed the next year to lay the groundwork for a nuclear buildout, Washington didn’t make it easy for foreign countries to import American technology. Before any U.S. nuclear company can sell its wares abroad, the Senate needs to approve what’s known as a 123 Agreement, essentially a treaty in which the partner nation agrees not to use the technology for weapons proliferation. When Abu Dhabi set out to build the Arab world’s first nuclear power station, the U.S. struck a new, special 123 Agreement with the United Arab Emirates in 2009, in which the Gulf monarchy swore off ever enriching or recycling its own fuel. That deal became the gold standard for U.S. nuclear pacts — and one Washington had planned to make a requirement for any other countries in the region. Saudi Arabia, however, wasn’t happy with those restrictions, particularly as its rival Iran pressed ahead with construction of its second and third reactors at its debut Russian-made nuclear station. With the Biden administration putting up resistance, Riyadh began flaunting talks with Beijing to buy Chinese reactors, in what would mark a major entry of the People’s Republic into the nuclear export market.
All of which you needed to know to appreciate what a huge deal the latest news is. On Wednesday, The Wall Street Journal, The New York Times, and the Associated Press confirmed that Saudi Arabia had reached a deal with the Trump administration that would likely allow Riyadh to enrich and recycle its own fuel on its soil. While a formal announcement is expected this week, Secretary of State Marco Rubio already acknowledged the deal by telling reporters any such agreement would not lead to weapons proliferation. On the face of it, the deal is a major win for the U.S. over its arch adversaries. Russia dominates global nuclear exports, and is currently building the debut plants in Bangladesh, Egypt, and Turkey. China, meanwhile, has dramatically brought down the cost and time it takes to build its own domestic reactors, which are based on the leading American design, and Beijing is widely expected to make an export push in the coming years. The U.S. has managed to win deals in Eastern Europe to build Poland’s first nuclear plant. But so far, American technology has struggled to compete on both price and construction competence. A moment when Iran is firing missiles at America’s Arab allies may seem ill-suited to embarking on a civilian nuclear program, but the Atlantic Council researcher Allison Minor, who previously served as a U.S. deputy special envoy to Yemen, said the war had added urgency to brokering the Saudi-U.S. deal. “By keeping the door open for uranium enrichment inside Saudi Arabia, the nuclear deal sends a powerful message to Tehran,” she wrote in a blog post. “By securing a 123 agreement that appears to have more preferable terms than the United Arab Emirates and dozens of other U.S. partners have committed to, Riyadh also signals its role as a major global player, even if it is not among the ranks of nuclear-armed nations.”
In March, the White House organized a voluntary industry pledge in which hyperscalers and data centers developers promised to pay above and beyond the normal rate for electricity to ease the strain on Americans. On Thursday, the Trump administration plans to announce a vast expansion of the pact to include the nation’s largest utilities, Reuters reported. Utilities NextEra Energy and Duke Energy joined data center developers Equinix and Digital Realty along with roughly 200 other entities on a list of signatories The Wall Street Journal obtained.
The move comes a day after ratepayer advocates accused the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission of failing to address the cost of upgrading infrastructure in its latest order meant to ease the impacts of data centers, Utility Dive reported. Polling from Heatmap Pro has shown repeatedly that public support for data centers is collapsing.
The Colorado River’s largest reservoirs, Lake Mead and Lake Powell, hit record lows in what experts described to the Los Angeles Times this week as a “five-alarm fire.” On Tuesday, Secretary of the Interior Doug Burgum met with the governors of seven states virtually ahead of his agency’s anticipated release of a plan to cut back on water use to ease shortages. That states appear to be welcoming a federal intervention marks a break with more than a century of Western states fighting to manage their water supplies among themselves with minimal oversight from Washington. Yet “far from a brash commandeering of the system,” E&E News reported, Burgum’s plan “is effectively a kick-the-can exercise for managing the drought-riddled river that supplies water” for one in 10 Americans. “At best, the Trump administration’s plan will leave economies — from the bucolic ranches of the Rocky Mountains to the mansions of Los Angeles, the tech hub of Phoenix and the powerhouse farms along the border with Mexico — in a state of limbo, without clear rules for who will have access to vital supplies in the years to come,” reporter Annie Snider wrote. “At worst, it dares the region’s political leaders — most especially Arizona Governor Katie Hobbs, who is facing one of the country’s closest gubernatorial races in the fall — to launch a destabilizing court fight.” As former Heatmap reporter Neel Dhanesha wrote in 2023, sometimes plans can at least buy some time.
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Russia officially kicked off the global race for small modular reactors in 2019 with the launch of its first floating nuclear station, which is still pumping out power in an Arctic port today. Since then, dozens of companies have proposed small reactors on land, and a handful of startups has looked to build nuclear-propelled civilian ships. But no one has really attempted any major offshore nuclear energy projects yet. Still, the Trump administration is preparing for the potential new sector. On Wednesday, the Department of the Interior’s Marine Minerals Administration — the agency recently formed out of combining the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management with the Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement — signed a memorandum of understanding with the Nuclear Regulatory Commission to “responsibly respond to industry requests” and support new technologies.
“Submerged reactor systems have been safely deployed in naval applications for decades, demonstrating their potential as a reliable source of energy in demanding marine environments,” Matt Giacona, the acting director of the Marine Minerals Administration, said in a statement. “While no commercial deployment on the Outer Continental Shelf is planned or approved at this time, it could greatly strengthen America’s energy security in the future.”
China unveiled a new set of rules for the solar industry last week that are expected to “do a good job in cutting out low-cost, outdated technology across the value chain,” according to a new report from the research division at the magazine PV Tech. The new national regulations, set to take effect on January 1, 2027, phase out weaker panels and conventional polysilicon products. “These new restrictions are very interesting as the Chinese government now sees a need to stop the oversupply, maybe coming from lowered deployment in China in the first half of the year,” Joe Hennessy, co-author of the report and analyst at PV Tech Research, told PV Tech. “This will affect the smaller producers the most, as they are less likely to have upgraded lines during the period of losses.” Larger solar manufacturers are already producing panels with efficiency rates of up to 24%, the report found.
This is a story I’m planning to keep a close eye on, given the forthcoming results of the Department of Commerce’s 232 investigation into whether domestic U.S. producers of polysilicon need new tariffs to protect them against Chinese imports. My best-placed sources say the agency is on track to release its findings by next month, though others close to the process say the 74-day government shutdown could give the administration until early September to meet its legal deadlines.”
Koloma, the startup seeking to tap into naturally occurring hydrogen deposits, has a third exploration deal in the Philippines. On Thursday, Heatmap editorial fellow Ameya Hadap broke news that the company has inked an agreement for exclusive rights to a roughly 817-square-mile area of Luzon’s Zambales Province. The Colorado-based firm now has the rights to more than 1,600 square miles of the country.
The deal, shared exclusively with Heatmap, is the startup’s third in the oil-importing country.
Hydrogen fuel comes in myriad forms. There’s green hydrogen, which is extracted from water molecules using zero-carbon electricity. There’s blue hydrogen, derived from methane and scrubbed clean by carbon capture. And then there’s white hydrogen. Otherwise known as natural or geologic hydrogen, this type of hydrogen comes directly from naturally occurring deposits in the earth, can accumulate in considerable quantities and concentrations, and is highly energy-efficient to extract compared to manufacturing pathways such as electrolyzers and steam methane reforming.
It’s a seductive promise, but finding deposits with enough hydrogen to make the economics of exploration work is difficult. That’s where Koloma comes in. The startup uses a bespoke subsurface data set, which its founders developed over 20-plus years, to flag the areas most likely to hold sufficient hydrogen, after which they can extract it for power and derivative fuels.
On Thursday, the startup announced its latest exploration deal, its third in the Philippines, which will give it exclusive rights to a roughly 817-square-mile area in western Zambales Province on the island of Luzon. Altogether, the company now has rights to explore more than 1,600 square miles of the island.
The Philippines until recently imported 98% of its oil from the Middle East. Since the onset of the U.S. and Israel-led war in Iran and the subsequent closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the country’s responses have included declaring an energy emergency, imposing a four-day workweek, tripling solar panel imports from China, and even planning to dust off the Bataan Nuclear Power Plant, which has sat idle since 1986.
The country also sits between three active tectonic plates, which means it has a lot of young iron-rich rock formations exposed to water — exactly the conditions that continuously produce natural hydrogen.
“The Philippines is like the poster child of that,” Pete Johnson, Koloma’s CEO, told me. “The geology is very, very good.” Accordingly, the prospect of a plentiful, easy-to-tap domestic energy source has gotten Philippine policymakers excited. The government collects data on natural leaks of hydrogen from the ground to help companies like Koloma narrow their search.
In theory, once a viable deposit is discovered, extraction is straightforward. “If you drill a hole into that pressurized reservoir, the gas is going to flow by itself. It’s just like poking a hole in a balloon,” Johnson told me. Where electrolyzers need around 55 megawatt-hours of energy to produce a ton of hydrogen and gas-powered reformers need around 40 megawatt-hours, natural hydrogen extraction would take 3 megawatt-hours maximum, according to the CEO. And unlike some methods to artificially stimulate the formation of hydrogen deposits, which my colleague Katie Brigham wrote about last week, tapping into natural wells doesn’t require injecting high-pressure fluids, which keeps the structural integrity of the subsurface intact.
Koloma has no hard agreement with the Philippine government to earmark any of the hydrogen it may produce there for domestic consumption, Johnson told me. But given the difficulty of transporting the lightweight gas and the projected growth of the Philippine economy, he expects the country would be the overwhelming beneficiary of Koloma’s activities there.
Once it’s extracted, Koloma could sell the hydrogen as a primary resource (major population and industrial centers like Manila are close to exploration sites) or as a feedstock for products like ammonia and sustainable aviation fuel, which local manufacturers could then export. There may also be opportunities to sequester captured CO2, which easily bonds with the types of rock often found in natural hydrogen deposits and can in turn make the rock more reactive for hydrogen generation.
Hydrogen has figured heavily in the decarbonization and energy security plans of import-dependent East and Southeast Asian economies for a long time. As Katie explained earlier this year, it’s also a centerpiece of China’s latest five-year plan. Japan, meanwhile, has been a leader since the industry’s inception, rolling out the world’s first hydrogen strategy in 2017. The Philippines’ partnership with Koloma is a bet that there are enough hydrogen balloons under its land to put its energy plans on the same trajectory.