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On skirting pollution rules, Arctic sea ice, and Empire Wind
Current conditions: Between 10 and 15 inches of rain fell across parts of South Texas, triggering severe flooding • Firefighters made progress containing some of the large wildfires burning in South Korea • It’s -7 degrees Fahrenheit at Greenland’s Pituffik Space Base, which Vice President JD Vance will visit today.
The Environmental Protection Agency has set up an email address that power plants and other industrial facilities can use to request a temporary exemption from President Trump on EPA air pollution rules. Firms can write to “airaction@epa.gov” and make a case for why their facilities should not have to abide by some nine Clean Air Act emissions rules, and for how long they’d like to be exempt. The president — yes, the president himself — will review the request and “make a decision on the merits.” The EPA argues that the Clean Air Act contains a section that allows the president to exempt industrial facilities from new rules for up to two years “if the technology to implement the standard is not available and it is in the national security interests of the United States to do so.”
The environmental protection community is not happy. “The new Trump EPA website invites hundreds of industrial sources of cancer-causing pollution and other toxics to evade science-based clean air standards that are designed to keep our families safe — all with a single email,” said Vickie Patton, general counsel of the Environmental Defense Fund. “This puts the health of all Americans on the line.”
Sea ice in the Arctic is at its lowest winter level ever recorded. March is usually when the ice is at its peak, but this year’s ice cover of 5.53 million square miles is about 30,000 square miles smaller than the previous lowest March peak recorded in 2017. “Warming temperatures are what’s causing the ice to decline,” ice data scientist Walt Meier told The Associated Press. The Arctic is warming about four times faster than the rest of the world, and less winter sea ice means more melt in the summer. Researchers warn that current warming trends mean the Arctic could see its first completely ice-free summer months as soon as 2035. “We’re going to come into this next summer season with less ice to begin with,” said Linette Boisvert, an ice scientist at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Maryland. “It doesn’t bode well for the future.”
Activists from the anti-wind movement are circling Empire Wind and asking President Donald Trump to rescind the EPA air permit to the Equinor offshore project, Heatmap’s Jael Holzman reports in The Fight. Two prominent anti-offshore wind organizations — Save the East Coast and Protect our Coast-Long Island — announced this week in a press release posted to Facebook that they were petitioning the EPA to take the permit away, just like it did earlier this month with the Atlantic Shores project off the coast of New Jersey. Activists have also asked EPA to get rid of air permits for New England Wind and Vineyard Wind.
Earnings call mentions of “climate change” and other terms related to environmental issues and clean energy have plummeted by 76% over the past three years, according to a new Bloomberg analysis. “Green chatter” on S&P 500 companies’ quarterly calls peaked in 2022, just before the Inflation Reduction Act passed, and has been falling ever since. Anti-climate sentiment in the Trump administration has hastened the so-called greenhushing. At the same time, most corporate finance bosses say they aim to increase their green investments, and more companies are making climate commitments. So some progress is still being made, even if nobody wants to make a big deal out of it.
The Internal Revenue Service this week reopened the online portal for car dealerships to retroactively register electric vehicle sales to the tax agency, Heatmap’s Emily Pontecorvo reported. The change will make it easier for buyers to claim the EV tax credit on their returns after a major change to the EV tax credit program last year left many in the lurch. Before the change, all dealers had to do was give the buyer a “time of sale” report that they could submit to the IRS come tax season. But as of 2024, dealerships were expected to register every EV sale that was eligible for the tax credit through this new online portal. Not only that, they had to do so within three days of the sale. The portal would not allow entries dated more than three days post-sale. Many dealerships were unaware of the new requirements, and customers trying to claim the credit on their taxes have been getting error messages saying that their EVs were not registered with the IRS. In a notice to dealerships this week, first reported by NPR, the trade group said the IRS planned to roll out an update to the portal on Wednesday to allow for sales made in 2024 to be submitted.
“If any of this has made you nervous about getting an EV this year, remember that you have another, safer option for claiming the tax credit,” Pontecorvo explains. “Instead of claiming it on your taxes in 2026, you can transfer it to your dealer, who can take it off the sale price of the car on the spot. Just make sure they know about the online portal!”
“Perfectly executed, Mr. Trump! … You have pulled off the rare rope-a-dope: Your political action groups raised more than $75 million from the oil industry to help get you elected. But now that you’re in office, you’re shutting them in. And the best part is that voters have no idea: Americans continue to think that you support U.S. oil and gas drilling — and they like it.”
–Heatmap’s Robinson Meyer in an open letter to President Trump, aka Degrowth Donald
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On auto imports, special elections, and Volvo’s new CEO
Current conditions: Ice storms left more than 900,000 customers without power across Michigan, Wisconsin, and Indiana • The Table Rock Fire, which ignited in South Carolina more than a week ago, has jumped the border into North Carolina • Meteorologists are warning that unprecedented flooding in the Australian state of Queensland could go on for days.
Nearly the entire East Coast faces the threat of severe weather today from a powerful storm system that has already left thousands of customers in central and midwestern states without electricity. Roughly 100 million people will be at risk of damaging winds, hail, and possible tornadoes through Monday evening as a cold front collides with unseasonably warm air to help fuel the system. Some 300 tornadoes have already been recorded in the first three months of 2025, nearly double the number from the same time last year.
Accuweather
President Trump told NBC News over the weekend that he “couldn’t care less” if the prices of cars go up in the U.S. due to his 25% tariffs on imported vehicles and parts. “I hope they raise their prices,” he added, “because if they do, people are going to buy American-made cars.” The vehicle tariffs are set to come into effect on April 3, and Bloombergreports that JPMorgan analysts expect auto prices to increase by 11% on average. “The impact for potential EV buyers is clear,” wrote Andrew Moseman for Heatmap. “New car prices will soar by thousands of dollars with Trump tariffs in place. That will be particularly troublesome for EVs, which are staring down the prospect of this administration trying to remove federal tax credits for Americans who buy electric. If you really want to get into an EV, the best bet might be to act right now before any of this madness takes effect in April.”
On the radar this week: There are two special elections tomorrow in Florida, one of which is looking surprisingly close. Democrats are hoping their candidate, Josh Weil, can flip Florida’s Sixth Congressional District, which is vacant after former Rep. Mike Waltz resigned to become national security adviser to President Trump. Weil has outraised his Republican opponent, State Senator Randy Fine, prompting concern within the GOP about the party’s razor-thin majority in the House. The other special election, for Florida’s First Congressional District, looks less competitive. As Heatmap’s Emily Pontecorvo and Jael Holzman report, the balance of the chamber has big implications for the fate of the Inflation Reduction Act as the House Ways and Means Committee debates which programs to keep and which to cut to pay for Republicans’ desired tax cuts.
Volvo CEO Jim Rowan is stepping down today and will be replaced on an interim basis by the company’s former CEO Håkan Samuelsson. The move “is somewhat surprising,” said Iulian Dnistran at InsideEVs, “seeing how last year, Volvo posted its best-ever sales, profits and revenue figures.” But Rowan recently warned of a “very challenging year” ahead as trade tensions rise. The company is expected to be hit hard by President Trump’s tariffs on imported cars, and the board is seeking a “steady hand” at the helm.
Samuelsson served in the role for about a decade leading up to 2022, before handing the reins to Rowan. Volvo’s share price has dropped by 66% over three years as the EV transition has progressed more slowly than anticipated. Last year the company abandoned its goal of selling only EVs by 2030 as demand lagged. “With fast-moving technological shifts, growing geopolitical complexity, and intensifying competition across regions, the board believes the company is best served by leadership with deep industrial experience, deep knowledge of our group, and a proven ability to execute in challenging environments,” Volvo said. Samuelsson will serve as CEO for two years as the company searches for a permanent replacement.
China has discovered a large oilfield in the South China Sea with reserves of more than 100 million tons, according to the state news agency Xinhua. The Huizhou 19-6 oilfield sits off the coast of Shenzhen and is in very deep waters, which makes it harder to explore. China is looking to become more energy independent, and the discovery could curb its oil imports. The country’s demand for oil-based fuels has been declining in part because of its rapid transition to electric vehicles. But demand is still growing for oil that gets turned into plastics and textiles. “Oil demand for petrochemicals in China rose by almost 5% in 2024 as new plants came online, a trend that is expected to continue in the next few years,” according to the International Energy Agency.
Fossil fuel emissions in the European Union fell by nearly 3% last year as the power sector moved away from coal. The decline was smaller than the 8.5% drop seen between 2022 and 2023.
Inside Heatmap’s future of energy security event in D.C.
On Wednesday night in Washington, D.C., Heatmap hosted an evening of discussion on energy innovation and security, featuring special guest Senator Sheldon Whitehouse of Rhode Island.
Guests at Heatmap's discussion on energy innovation and securityMariah Miranda Photography
We’re in the “era of climate consequences,” Whitehouse told Heatmap senior reporter Jael Holzman. Climate politics has so far largely failed, he said, due to the “malign and corrupting” influence of the fossil fuel industry. Now, things like expensive disaster cleanups and skyrocketing insurance are creating opportunities to talk to voters about climate policy in a new way. And that means largely abandoning the climate politics of the past.
Jael Holtzman and Sheldon WhitehouseMariah Miranda Photography
“The Inflation Reduction Act was fine,” he said. “But nobody believed it put us on a pathway of climate safety. So we have always needed to do more.” Some portions of the IRA may survive the Trump administration’s anti-renewables agenda, particularly those sections that are delivering benefits to Republican-led states, he said. “I think the legislative focus should be on defending that. The parliamentary focus should be on defending that. But the narrative focus shouldn't be on defending that,” Whitehouse said. “The narrative has to move on.”
Senator Whitehouse making a point.Mariah Miranda Photography
Also on Wednesday night, Heatmap CEO and editor in chief Nico Lauricella interviewed Benton Arnett, senior director of markets and policy at the Nuclear Energy Institute, which sponsored the event. Their discussion focused on the changing prospects for the nuclear industry. “If we were having this conversation three years ago, we would be talking about which nuclear plant we might shut down next, right?” Arnett said. “It was really a dire time for the industry.”
Nico Lauricella and Benton ArnettMariah Miranda Photography
Today, the industry has benefited from a host of converging positive factors, including rising demand for reliable 24/7 energy sources that has brought investor interest into the space, as well as policy changes and incentives — particularly 45U, the IRA’s tax credit for nuclear energy — that have helped clear away some of the barriers to new nuclear development.
Should we call it a nuclear Renaissance, Lauricella asked? A revival?
“I just call it a good time,” Arnett said.
Nico Lauricella and Benton ArnettMariah Miranda Photography
Guests following the discussionMariah Miranda Photography
Mariah Miranda Photography
Mariah Miranda Photography
Mariah Miranda Photography
Mariah Miranda Photography
Mariah Miranda Photography
Thank you to our sponsors, the Nuclear Energy Institute and the Alliance for Market Solutions, for making the event possible.
The South Korean automaker just opened an EV factory in Georgia. It’ll take a lot longer for others to catch up to Trump’s latest tariffs.
President Trump has introduced yet another round of tariffs that could upend the car industry. The newest volley in his trade war promises to slap an extra 25% tax onto any automobile imported into the U.S. It’s a measure meant to sound like a safeguard for American industry against foreign incursion. The reality, as usual, is a lot more complicated. These tariffs will punish many of the most promising EVs on the market, including those sold by Detroit.
The automotive toll of Trump’s tariffs was startling the last time around, when the administration said it would place a 25% tariffs on goods from Canada and Mexico, as well as 10% on Chinese imports. That proposal was particularly problematic for the car industry because automakers use a well-established North American production pipeline to reduce costs. Lots of vehicles, whether gasoline, electric, or hybrid, are built in Mexico before being sold in the United States, while plenty of auto parts manufacturing occurs in Canada.
On the electric side, that list of affected vehicles includes the Chevrolet Blazer EV and Equinox EV, as well as the Honda Prologue, which is based on a General Motors platform. All three are strong EV entries by legacy manufacturers trying to grab a chunk of the electric market as industry leader Tesla takes on water amid global rage at Elon Musk. But all three are manufactured at a GM plant in Mexico. So is the Mustang Mach-E, Ford’s flagship EV.
Heatmap has previously highlighted the Equinox, in particular, because the price of its entry-level version — around $35,000 before tax credits — makes it a compelling option for buyers who are shopping on price but interested in going electric. With a price marked up by 25%, it’s no longer competitive with gasoline-powered rivals. The Prologue has found an impressive niche in the market, especially for the many buyers who were waiting for a Honda-badged EV. But its broad appeal may not survive such a markup.
The newest Trump maneuver, a tariff on cars imported from any foreign country, creates another layer of economic chaos for EVs. These rules would target Japanese-made electric cars like the Toyota bZ4x and Subaru Solterra, German-built ones like those from BMW and Mercedes-Benz, and plenty more. Hyundai’s Kona EV, one of the more affordable electric models, is built abroad. Volkswagen moved assembly of its ID.4 electric crossover to Tennessee, but the ID.Buzz, the battery-powered revival of the classic VW bus, is not made in the USA.
Many of those foreign-owned companies were already moving manufacturing to the United States for basic economic reasons, and also to conform to the rules the Biden administration put in place governing eligibility for the $7,500 EV tax credit, which require that many key parts be sourced at home. Toyota and Honda have opened American plants; so have the German automakers. This could help them adjust to a new and convoluted reality. Hyundai’s new Georgia “metaplant” just opened and will produce the Korean automaker’s Ioniq 5 and Ioniq 9 EV crossovers. Its partner brand, Kia, makes the EV6 and EV9 in West Point, Georgia. These Southern factories will have a huge impact on the Korean brands’ ability to survive Trump-era tariffs and maintain their position as the biggest EV challengers to Tesla.
Trump ally Elon Musk stands to benefit most from this move, since Tesla does most of its manufacturing in the United States. Teslas aren’t 100% American; Musk estimates that 20% of what goes into his EVs comes from Mexico, and that the impact of Trump tariffs on Tesla is “not trivial.” This is a dodge. Yes, Tesla would be impacted by the 25% tariffs, but much less so than its rivals. It’s a bit like the EV price wars of a couple years ago, when Musk kept cutting the prices of his cars because he knew how hard it would be for legacy competitors to keep pace. It’s okay to take a punch if your enemies take a bigger one.
The question looming over all of Tesla’s rivals is how to survive this ever-shifting landscape of tariffs and penalties. Changes in the car industry are a long time in the making: It takes years to bring a new vehicle to fruition, to build a new factory, or to retool an old plant so it can manufacture a different vehicle. GM has spent years refitting a Kansas factory that once built the now-retired Chevy Malibu for the purpose of making the revived Bolt EV coming in 2026. It cannot, at the drop of a hat, suddenly begin to source and build the Equinox EV entirely within the borders of the United States of America. That’s why you’ll see plenty of lobbying over the course of the next month as the car industry tries to convince the administration to back off — or, if not that, to at least give their company a tariff exemption.
The impact for potential EV buyers is clear. New car prices will soar by thousands of dollars with Trump tariffs in place. That will be particularly troublesome for EVs, which are staring down the prospect of this administration trying to remove federal tax credits for Americans who buy electric. Used cars — the pathway to EV ownership for those who can’t afford the steep price tag of a new one — will get more expensive, too, thanks to rising demand from those priced out of new vehicles. If you really want to get into an EV, the best bet might be to act right now before any of this madness takes effect in April.