Sign In or Create an Account.

By continuing, you agree to the Terms of Service and acknowledge our Privacy Policy

Climate

Renewables Enter an Older and Wiser Phase

We learned a thing or two in 2023.

Futuristic wind turbines.
Heatmap Illustration/Getty Images

Last year showed that renewables are not fated to always and everywhere get steadily cheaper. But if 2023 was a year when the industry was hampered by inflation, high interest rates, and lingering supply chain issues, then maybe 2024 could be a year of normalization — when governments, utilities, and energy companies have at least started to figure things out.

“There’s optimism going into 2024,” Allegra Dawes, an associate fellow at the Center for Center for Strategic and International Studies, told me.

The difficulties of 2023 were nowhere more obvious than in offshore wind, where rising costs led to cancellations of projects as states and developers couldn’t agree on new contracts. This year already has seen the scrubbing of one New York offshore wind project, Empire Wind 2, although developers Equinor and BP will likely rebid under a new system that better accounts for the possibilities of costs rising.

At (nearly) the same time, though, power customers on New York’s Long Island were the first in the U.S. to receive utility-scale offshore wind power at the end of last year, while New Englanders enjoyed their first offshore wind power just this week. The turmoil of 2023 doesn’t mean that offshore wind — or any other part of the energy transition — is completely off track, just that it’s entering a different, more mature phase.

“What we’re all learning is that building out renewable sources will likely be more expensive,” Dawes said. Repeated and rapid cost declines in solar — far beyond experts’ annual projections — may have lulled investors and policymakers into thinking that all renewable energy sources would forever follow the same trajectory. If so, the awakening was a rude one. “Those cost declines we saw in solar are not going to be easily replicable in all technologies,” Dawes said.

High interest rates have particularly bedeviled renewable projects, as they typically need a large amount of upfront financing for years before they can start generating power. This, at least, is one place the industry can expect relief: Federal Reserve officials have predicted that the central bank will cut rates three times in 2024, which could bring partial relief to renewable developers. Traders, meanwhile, predict a much faster pace of easing. And as laws like the infrastructure bill and Inflation Reduction Act are further implemented, meaning that funding for specific provisions begins to flow in earnest and newly written rules come into effect, investors and businesses will be able to make informed decisions as to how best to take advantage.

“We have massive amounts of projects in the queue,” Dawes said. “Announcements of solar and wind continue.” Just in solar, the Energy Information Administration expects 37 gigawatts of new capacity, on top of the 23 gigawatts it expects when the figures for 2023 are tallied up. Solar and wind, the EIA projects, will, all-told, generate more power than coal for the first time ever.

All this renewable energy will need new transmission capacity to meaningfully affect the carbon intensity of electricity generation in the United States. The difficulties of building new transmission — especially long-distance transmission — and the never-ending queue of new projects waiting to be connected to the grid have long been considered a major hold-up in the decarbonization process. While the nation’s grid and transmission problems won’t be solved in 2024, incremental progress will likely be made, with billions of dollars in federal funds available for grid planning and investment. One massive transmission project to bring wind power from New Mexico and Arizona that’s been in the works for literally decades finally started construction late last year, indicating that these types of projects can get financed.

And there are signs that, despite the rocky recent past, investors are beginning to believe in the long-term future of renewables. “The impact of unprecedented investment in renewable infrastructure will likely become more apparent in 2024,” Deloitte analysts said in a report. “Regulatory boosts to renewable energy and transmission buildout could help address grid constraints.”

There are still any number of bottlenecks beyond financing and costs. One is actually getting federal government programs to begin to build. As of early December, the $7.5 billion allotted for building out an electric vehicle charging network, for instance, had produced precisely zero chargers. But that, too, could begin to change this year, with Ohio breaking ground on chargers.

If we were to say any one thing about the energy transition story in 2024, it’s that it won’t be all about huge new laws or policies, but instead about steadily chipping away at implementation. That’s not fun or sexy, but it is what grown-ups do.

Green

You’re out of free articles.

Subscribe today to experience Heatmap’s expert analysis 
of climate change, clean energy, and sustainability.
To continue reading
Create a free account or sign in to unlock more free articles.
or
Please enter an email address
By continuing, you agree to the Terms of Service and acknowledge our Privacy Policy
Politics

How Republicans Are Trying to Gut the Endangered Species Act

The 50-year-old law narrowly avoided evisceration on the House floor Wednesday, but more threats lie in wait.

Endangered species.
Heatmap Illustration/Getty Images

Americans may not agree on much, but it seems fair to say that most are pretty happy that the bald eagle isn’t extinct. When the Senate passed the Endangered Species Act on a 92-0 vote in 1973, bald eagles were among the first on the protected list, their population having cratered to fewer than 450 nesting pairs by the early 1960s. Now delisted, bald eagles easily outnumber the population of St. Louis, Missouri, in 2026, at more than 300,000 individuals.

The Endangered Species Act remains enduringly popular more than 50 years later due to such success stories, with researchers finding in a 2018 survey that support for the legislation has “remained stable over the past two decades,” with only about one in 10 Americans opposing it. Even so, the law has long been controversial among industry groups because of the restrictions it imposes on development. In 2011, when Republicans took control of the House of Representatives, Congress introduced 30 bills to alter the ESA, then averaged around 40 per year through 2016.

Keep reading...Show less
Green
Climate Tech

Exclusive: Octopus Energy Launches Battery-Powered Electricity Plan With Lunar

The companies are offering Texas ratepayers a three-year fixed-price contract that comes with participation in a virtual power plant.

Octopus and Lunar Energy.
Heatmap Illustration/Getty Images

Customers get a whole lot of choice in Texas’ deregulated electricity market — which provider to go with, fixed-rate or variable-rate plan, and contract length are all variables to consider. If a customer wants a home battery as well, that’s yet another exercise in complexity, involving coordination with the utility, installers, and contractors.

On Wednesday, residential battery manufacturer and virtual power plant provider Lunar Energy and U.K.-based retail electricity provider Octopus Energy announced a partnership to simplify all this. They plan to offer Texas electricity ratepayers a single package: a three-year fixed-rate contract, a 30-kilowatt-hour battery, and automatic participation in a statewide network of distributed energy resources, better known as a virtual power plant, or VPP.

Keep reading...Show less
Blue
AM Briefing

Blowing the Whistle

On Trump’s renewables embargo, Project Vault, and perovskite solar

Pollution.
Heatmap Illustration/Getty Images

Current conditions: Illinois far outpaces every other state for tornadoes so far this year, clocking 80, with Mississippi in a distant second with 43 • Western North Carolina’s Blue Ridge Mountains face high wildfire risk during the day and frost at night • A magnitude 7.4 earthquake off the coast of Honshu, Japan, has raised the risk of a tsunami.

THE TOP FIVE

1. Whistleblowers allege big problems with corporate carbon standards-setter

The nonprofit that sets the standards against which tens of thousands of companies worldwide measure their greenhouse gas emissions is secretive and ideologically tilted toward industry. That’s the conclusion of a new whistleblower report on which Heatmap’s Emily Pontecorvo got her hands yesterday. The problems at the Greenhouse Gas Protocol “are systemic,” and the nonprofit “seems to be moving further away from its commitment to accountability,” the report said. Danny Cullenward, the economist and lawyer focused on scientific integrity in climate science at the University of Pennsylvania’s Kleinman Center for Energy Policy who authored the report, sits on the Protocol’s Independent Standards Board. Due to a restrictive non-disclosure agreement preventing him from talking about what he has witnessed, he instead relied on publicly available information to illustrate the report. “Not only does the nonprofit community not have a voice on the board,” Cullenward wrote, but the absence of those voices “risks politicizing the work of scientist Board members.” Emily added: “While the Protocol’s official decision-making hierarchy deems scientific integrity as its top priority, in practice, scientists are left to defend the science to the business community.” The report follows a years-long process meant to bolster the group’s scientific credibility. “Critics have long faulted the Protocol for allowing companies to look far better on paper than they do to the atmosphere,” Emily explains. But creating standards that are both scientifically robust and feasible to implement is no easy feat.

Keep reading...Show less
Red