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Climate

What the Smoke Has in Store for the Midwest

Wildfire smoke is giving Chicago, Detroit, and Milwaukee the worst air quality in the world. Here’s what it’s expected to do next.

Chicago.
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New York Senator Chuck Schumer coined “summer of smoke” while it was still technically spring, but if the scene in Chicago on Tuesday was any indication, the name is on track to stick.

As the fires in Canada rage on — there are actually more burning now than there were in early June — smoke has continued to pour south into the United States, this time blanketing Minnesota, Michigan, Wisconsin, and parts of Indiana and Illinois. Chicago, Detroit, and Milwaukee ranked as the three worst major cities in the world for air quality mid-afternoon on Tuesday, while Grand Rapids, Michigan, recorded Code Purple “very unhealthy” air.

Unfortunately, New Yorkers won’t want to put away their air purifiers just yet, either (and if you’re in the Ohio River Valley, you’ll want to beat the rush to the store by picking one up today). Here’s a look at how the smoke is tracking this week:

The Great Lakes region

This isn’t the first time the Great Lakes region has had to contend with smoke this year, although the considerably worse conditions in New York City monopolized coverage last time around. But with the worst air quality in the world on Tuesday — including a rare, severe 353 AQI on the Michigan border overnight — some 24 million people were under air quality alerts at the start of the week, Fox Weather reports.

Thankfully, they don’t call it the Windy City for nothing; a breeze off Lake Michigan is expected to push the smoke southwest beginning on Wednesday, USA Today reports. Still, the smoke will linger overnight and stick around longer in other parts of the region — an air quality alert will remain in place in southern Minnesota through early Thursday morning.

The Ohio River Valley

Smoke has to go somewhere, though, and it’ll blow straight out of the Midwest … and into the Ohio River Valley. Air quality alerts have been issued for Indiana and the Louisville metro area (where it is forecast to be “unhealthy for all groups”), lasting through Wednesday, the Louisville Courier Journal reports. Haze has settled over Cincinnati, too, with alerts issued for sensitive groups. According to the FireSmoke Canada model, poor air quality could linger through at least Thursday morning.

New York

New York Governor Kathy Hochul issued a warning for her state saying smoke is expected to blow in on Wednesday, with New York City Mayor Eric Adams confirming it could come as far south as the five boroughs. “Bring a KN95 or N95 mask with you tomorrow,” he tweeted on Tuesday, “or make plans to avoid outdoor events just in case.”

For those in the Adirondacks, Hudson River Valley, Long Island, and New York City metro area, air quality isn’t expected to degrade beyond a “moderate” AQI of 51-100. Central New York, however, could experience air that is unhealthy for sensitive groups, while western New York will be in the “unhealthy” zone:

Everywhere else

The movement of smoke is famously tricky to predict, but there are a few different models you can use to keep an eye on your area. Here are the models for the next day from the FireSmoke Canada website, which tracks PM2.5 smoke particles at ground level from wildfires across North America. Check the FireSmoke Canada website or NOAA models for the most up-to-date forecasts and keep in mind that, like forecasting the weather, these are not guarantees. Err on the side of caution and protect yourself.

The model for the evening of June 27. Darker colors indicate higher PM2.5 levels, the particles associated with wildfire smoke. The numbered circles refer to the number of regional wildfires.FireSmoke Canada

The model for the morning of June 28.FireSmoke Canada

The model for the evening of June 28.FireSmoke Canada

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Bruce Westerman, the Capitol, a data center, and power lines.
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After many months of will-they-won’t-they, it seems that the dream (or nightmare, to some) of getting a permitting reform bill through Congress is squarely back on the table.

“Permitting reform” has become a catch-all term for various ways of taking a machete to the thicket of bureaucracy bogging down infrastructure projects. Comprehensive permitting reform has been tried before but never quite succeeded. Now, a bipartisan group of lawmakers in the House are taking another stab at it with the SPEED Act, which passed the House Natural Resources Committee the week before Thanksgiving. The bill attempts to untangle just one portion of the permitting process — the National Environmental Policy Act, or NEPA.

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GOP Lawmaker Asks FAA to Rescind Wind Farm Approval

And more on the week’s biggest fights around renewable energy.

The United States.
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1. Benton County, Washington – The Horse Heaven wind farm in Washington State could become the next Lava Ridge — if the Federal Aviation Administration wants to take up the cause.

  • On Monday, Dan Newhouse, Republican congressman of Washington, sent a letter to the FAA asking them to review previous approvals for Horse Heaven, claiming that the project’s development would significantly impede upon air traffic into the third largest airport in the state, which he said is located ten miles from the project site. To make this claim Newhouse relied entirely on the height of the turbines. He did not reference any specific study finding issues.
  • There’s a wee bit of irony here: Horse Heaven – a project proposed by Scout Clean Energy – first set up an agreement to avoid air navigation issues under the first Trump administration. Nevertheless, Newhouse asked the agency to revisit the determination. “There remains a great deal of concern about its impact on safe and reliable air operations,” he wrote. “I believe a rigorous re-examination of the prior determination of no hazard is essential to properly and accurately assess this project’s impact on the community.”
  • The “concern” Newhouse is referencing: a letter sent from residents in his district in eastern Washington whose fight against Horse Heaven I previously chronicled a full year ago for The Fight. In a letter to the FAA in September, which Newhouse endorsed, these residents wrote there were flaws under the first agreement for Horse Heaven that failed to take into account the full height of the turbines.
  • I was first to chronicle the risk of the FAA grounding wind project development at the beginning of the Trump administration. If this cause is taken up by the agency I do believe it will send chills down the spines of other project developers because, up until now, the agency has not been weaponized against the wind industry like the Interior Department or other vectors of the Transportation Department (the FAA is under their purview).
  • When asked for comment, FAA spokesman Steven Kulm told me: “We will respond to the Congressman directly.” Kulm did not respond to an additional request for comment on whether the agency agreed with the claims about Horse Heaven impacting air traffic.

2. Dukes County, Massachusetts – The Trump administration signaled this week it will rescind the approvals for the New England 1 offshore wind project.

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Q&A

How Rep. Sean Casten Is Thinking of Permitting Reform

A conversation with the co-chair of the House Sustainable Energy and Environment Coalition

Rep. Sean Casten.
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This week’s conversation is with Rep. Sean Casten, co-chair of the House Sustainable Energy and Environment Coalition – a group of climate hawkish Democratic lawmakers in the U.S. House of Representatives. Casten and another lawmaker, Rep. Mike Levin, recently released the coalition’s priority permitting reform package known as the Cheap Energy Act, which stands in stark contrast to many of the permitting ideas gaining Republican support in Congress today. I reached out to talk about the state of play on permitting, where renewables projects fit on Democrats’ priority list in bipartisan talks, and whether lawmakers will ever address the major barrier we talk about every week here in The Fight: local control. Our chat wound up immensely informative and this is maybe my favorite Q&A I’ve had the liberty to write so far in this newsletter’s history.

The following conversation was lightly edited for clarity.

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