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Numbers from the first full year of the Inflation Reduction Act are in.
The Biden administration has struggled to convince Americans that it has done much of anything to improve the economy. Despite a strong labor market, low unemployment, and steady GDP growth, a recent Gallup poll found that 70% of Americans believe the economy is “getting worse.” As recently as three months ago, about half the country was under the impression that unemployment is at a 50-year high, despite the true rate being at a nearly 50-year low, according to a poll conducted for The Guardian. Prior to the Democratic National Convention earlier this month, poll results from ABC News and the Washington Post showed voters had more faith in Donald Trump to steward the economy than they did in Democratic nominee Kamala Harris.
A new report published Wednesday is perhaps one of the current administration’s last opportunities to prove that Biden’s — and, by extension, Harris’ — policies to stimulate the U.S. economy with investments in clean energy are working. The U.S. Department of Energy’s annual Energy and Employment report, a compendium of information on employment and job growth across the many energy-related sectors of the economy, contains hundreds of data points on which job areas grew, which shrank, and by how much in 2023. There is also a 300-plus page addendum with data on every state, illustrating which industries are taking off where. As the Deputy Secretary of Energy David Turk said on a press call this week, it is the “best snapshot we have of who works in the energy field and what jobs they’re performing.”
The snapshot shows that policies like the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law and the Inflation Reduction Act are indeed turning the massive ship that is the energy economy, and doing so in a way that creates good jobs, albeit slowly, and in fits and starts. Here are three themes from the data that stuck out.
The report highlights major growth in clean energy jobs, which it defines as those relating to “net-zero emissions aligned technologies.” That includes renewable energy, nuclear, non-fossil energy efficiency, zero emissions vehicles, and carbon capture, utilization, and storage. In 2023, these fields accounted for more than half — 56% — of new jobs in the energy sector as a whole. The total number of clean energy jobs grew 4.2% last year, which is double the rate of job growth in the rest of the energy industry as well as in the economy at large. It’s also up from 3.9% the year before.
One of the fastest growing fields was low-emissions vehicles, which added nearly 25,000 jobs last year, with the majority of them (17,000) in battery electric vehicles. EV charging jobs also saw a major increase of 25%, although the field is still small, employing fewer than 3,000 people. Roles on renewable energy projects also expanded significantly, accounting for 79% of net new employment in electric power generation, including more than 18,000 new jobs in solar.
There’s a flipside to these numbers. Although we added more clean energy jobs than fossil fuel energy jobs last year, the latter still accounted for 44% of new employment. In other words, it looks like fossil fuel-related energy fields are not just standing still, they are growing. In some cases, this may not be the full story — for example, jobs working on gasoline and diesel vehicles grew more than those working on EVs in absolute terms, adding more than 39,000 positions last year. Many of those were likely maintenance and repair jobs, however, which saw more growth overall than manufacturing.
But in other sectors, the numbers are trending in the other direction. Coal power jobs declined, but at a lower rate than in 2022. Coal mining jobs, on the other hand, increased by 3.4%, which is more than three times what employers anticipated when the DOE surveyed them last year. Now these employers are predicting coal mining jobs will grow again by more than 9% this year. As my colleague Matthew Zeitlin has reported, coal plant retirements have slowed due to concerns about grid reliability and soaring electricity demand.
White House National Climate Advisor Ali Zaidi acknowledged the opposing trends during the press conference, noting that President Biden has worked to bring down gas prices and to “have the supplies that we need to run the economy” even as he pursues economy-wide decarbonization. “I think what you see in the jobs report is a reflection of the commitment to pursue energy and climate security, to manage our short term needs and the long term imperative,” he said.
The unionization rate for clean energy jobs surpassed that of the energy sector as a whole last year for the first time, with 12.4% of clean energy workers represented by a union, compared to 11% in the entire energy sector. The report attributes the rise to an overall increase in construction and utility employment — two industries that already have high union density.
My own recent reporting found that the labor provisions in the Inflation Reduction Act seem to be working to improve the quality of clean energy jobs and expand opportunities for union labor. Union leaders told me they are seeing more opportunities in renewables — particularly in solar — than before, and that their apprenticeship programs are growing.
That may be contributing to another trend identified by the new report: Employers in all energy fields reported that it was not as difficult to find workers as they said it was the year before.
“We're really encouraged by the high rates of unionization in clean energy,” Betony Jones, the director of the Office of Energy Jobs, said on the press call this week, “because good jobs attract workers, and better jobs attract better workers. The data show that employers are having an easier time finding qualified workers, so these two things go hand in hand.”
Many of the gains have been in clean energy construction, jobs that are inherently short-term. But Jones pushed back on that distinction. “The construction activity that's being driven by BIL and IRA and private sector investments across the country is expected to continue for decades,” she said. “So while workers might move from project to project, there is continuity of that work in order for workers to make a career in that industry.”
Unions have also made some inroads in manufacturing. Earlier this year, the United Auto Workers ratified a contract with Ultium Cells to produce EV batteries in Ohio. And earlier this month, the United Steelworkers Union reached a neutrality agreement with Convalt Energy, a solar manufacturer planning to open a new factory in New York. That means the company has agreed not to interfere with workers’ efforts to unionize.
When I was reporting on the shortage of residential electricians in the country a few years ago, I was shocked to learn that women made up less than 2% of the field. But the issue is not unique to electricians, and its effects aren’t limited to women. Clean energy jobs — and energy jobs more generally — are largely performed by white men. Despite many new efforts going on around the country to diversify the workforce, not much progress has been made.
Women held just 26% of energy jobs last year, despite making up 47% of the national workforce. When new jobs came along, an even smaller proportion, 17%, were filled by women. That’s way worse than the previous year, when half of new energy jobs were filled by women. Black workers are also particularly underrepresented in the energy sector, holding just 9% of energy jobs compared to 13% of the job market as a whole.
Other underrepresented groups were able to gain more market share. Hispanic and Latino workers filled about a third of new energy jobs and now make up 18% of the sector, compared with 19% of the national workforce.
Cynthia Finley, the vice president for workforce and strategic innovation at the Interstate Renewable Energy Council, told me that increasing diversity in the energy workforce requires a two-pronged approach — helping employers understand how to find workers from other demographics, but also bringing awareness about these jobs to a more diverse population. As more money from the Inflation Reduction Act — such as the $27 billion Greenhouse Gas Reduction Fund that will be rolling out over the next year — flows to communities for clean energy, her group aims to seize the opportunity.
“Our hope is to be in those same underrepresented communities that the Greenhouse Gas Reduction Fund attempts to serve,” she said, “and to bring the career awareness and the outreach and exploration about these jobs and connect them to quality training and education at the same time. So not only are we getting homes that are more energy efficient, but the workforce comes from these same communities as well.”
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What he wants them to do is one thing. What they’ll actually do is far less certain.
Donald Trump believes that tariffs have almost magical power to bring prosperity; as he said last month, “To me, the world’s most beautiful word in the dictionary is tariffs. It’s my favorite word.” In case anyone doubted his sincerity, before Thanksgiving he announced his intention to impose 25% tariffs on everything coming from Canada and Mexico, and an additional 10% tariff on all Chinese goods.
This is just the beginning. If the trade war he launched in his first term was haphazard and accomplished very little except costing Americans money, in his second term he plans to go much further. And the effects of these on clean energy and climate change will be anything but straightforward.
The theory behind tariffs is that by raising the price of an imported good, they give a stronger footing in the market; eventually, the domestic producer may no longer need the tariff to be competitive. Imposing a tariff means we’ve decided that a particular industry is important enough that it needs this kind of support — or as some might call it, protection — even if it means higher prices for a while.
The problem with across-the-board tariffs of the kind Trump proposes is that they create higher prices even for goods that are not being produced domestically and probably never will be. If tariffs raise the price of a six-pack of tube socks at Target from $9.99 to $14.99, it won’t mean we’ll start making tube socks in America again. It just means you’ll pay more. The same is often true for domestic industries that use foreign parts in their manufacturing: If no one is producing those parts domestically, their costs will unavoidably rise.
The U.S. imported over $3 trillion worth of goods in 2023, and $426 billion from China alone, so Trump’s proposed tariffs would represent hundreds of billions of dollars of increased costs. That’s before we account for the inevitable retaliatory tariffs, which is what we saw in Trump’s first term: He imposed tariffs on China, which responded by choking off its imports of American agricultural goods. In the end, the revenue collected from Trump’s tariffs went almost entirely to bailing out farmers whose export income disappeared.
The past almost-four years under Joe Biden have seen a series of back-and-forth moves in which new tariffs were announced, other tariffs were increased, exemptions were removed and reinstated. For instance, this May Biden increased the tariff on Chinese electric vehicles to over 100% while adding tariffs on certain EV batteries. But some of the provisions didn’t take effect right away, and only certain products were affected, so the net economic impact was minimal. And there’s been nothing like an across-the-board tariff.
It’s reasonable to criticize Biden’s tariff policies related to climate. But his administration was trying to navigate a dilemma, serving two goals at once: reducing emissions and promoting the development of domestic clean energy technology. Those goals are not always in alignment, at least in the short run, which we can see in the conflict within the solar industry. Companies that sell and install solar equipment benefit from cheap Chinese imports and therefore oppose tariffs, while domestic manufacturers want the tariffs to continue so they can be more competitive. The administration has attempted to accommodate both interests with a combination of subsidies to manufacturers and tariffs on certain kinds of imports — with exemptions peppered here and there. It’s been a difficult balancing act.
Then there are electric vehicles. The world’s largest EV manufacturer is Chinese company BYD, but if you haven’t seen any of their cars on the road, it’s because existing tariffs make it virtually impossible to import Chinese EVs to the United States. That will continue to be the case under Trump, and it would have been the case if Kamala Harris had been elected.
On one hand, it’s important for America to have the strongest possible green industries to insulate us from future supply shocks and create as many jobs-of-the-future as possible. On the other hand, that isn’t necessarily the fastest route to emissions reductions. In a world where we’ve eliminated all tariffs on EVs, the U.S. market would be flooded with inexpensive, high-quality Chinese EVs. That would dramatically accelerate adoption, which would be good for the climate.
But that would also deal a crushing blow to the American car industry, which is why neither party will allow it. What may happen, though, is that Chinese car companies may build factories in Mexico, or even here in the U.S., just as many European and Japanese companies have, so that their cars wouldn’t be subject to tariffs. That will take time.
Of course, whatever happens will depend on Trump following through with his tariff promise. We’ve seen before how he declares victory even when he only does part of what he promised, which could happen here. Once he begins implementing his tariffs, his administration will be immediately besieged by a thousand industries demanding exemptions, carve-outs, and delays in the tariffs that affect them. Many will have powerful advocates — members of Congress, big donors, and large groups of constituents — behind them. It’s easy to imagine how “across-the-board” tariffs could, in practice, turn into Swiss cheese.
There’s no way to know yet which parts of the energy transition will be in the cheese, and which parts will be in the holes. The manufacturers can say that helping them will stick it to China; the installers may not get as friendly an audience with Trump and his team. And the EV tariffs certainly aren’t going anywhere.
There’s a great deal of uncertainty, but one thing is clear: This is a fight that will continue for the entirety of Trump’s term, and beyond.
Give the people what they want — big, family-friendly EVs.
The star of this year’s Los Angeles Auto Show was the Hyundai Ioniq 9, a rounded-off colossus of an EV that puts Hyundai’s signature EV styling on a three-row SUV cavernous enough to carry seven.
I was reminded of two years ago, when Hyundai stole the L.A. show with a different EV: The reveal of Ioniq 6, its “streamliner” aerodynamic sedan that looked like nothing else on the market. By comparison, Ioniq 9 is a little more banal. It’s a crucial vehicle that will occupy the large end of Hyundai's excellent and growing lineup of electric cars, and one that may sell in impressive numbers to large families that want to go electric. Even with all the sleek touches, though, it’s not quite interesting. But it is big, and at this moment in electric vehicles, big is what’s in.
The L.A. show is one the major events on the yearly circuit of car shows, where the car companies traditionally reveal new models for the media and show off their whole lineups of vehicles for the public. Given that California is the EV capital of America, carmakers like to talk up their electric models here.
Hyundai’s brand partner, Kia, debuted a GT performance version of its EV9, adding more horsepower and flashy racing touches to a giant family SUV. Jeep reminded everyone of its upcoming forays into full-size and premium electric SUVs in the form of the Recon and the Wagoneer S. VW trumpeted the ID.Buzz, the long-promised electrified take on the classic VW Microbus that has finally gone on sale in America. The VW is the quirkiest of the lot, but it’s a design we’ve known about since 2017, when the concept version was revealed.
Boring isn’t the worst thing in the world. It can be a sign of a maturing industry. At auto shows of old, long before this current EV revolution, car companies would bring exotic, sci-fi concept cars to dial up the intrigue compared to the bread-and-butter, conservatively styled vehicles that actually made them gobs of money. During the early EV years, electrics were the shiny thing to show off at the car show. Now, something of the old dynamic has come to the electric sector.
Acura and Chrysler brought wild concepts to Los Angeles that were meant to signify the direction of their EVs to come. But most of the EVs in production looked far more familiar. Beyond the new hulking models from Hyundai and Kia, much of what’s on offer includes long-standing models, but in EV (Chevy Equinox and Blazer) or plug-in hybrid (Jeep Grand Cherokee and Wrangler) configurations. One of the most “interesting” EVs on the show floor was the Cybertruck, which sat quietly in a barely-staffed display of Tesla vehicles. (Elon Musk reveals his projects at separate Tesla events, a strategy more carmakers have begun to steal as a way to avoid sharing the spotlight at a car show.)
The other reason boring isn’t bad: It’s what the people want. The majority of drivers don’t buy an exotic, fun vehicle. They buy a handsome, spacious car they can afford. That last part, of course, is where the problem kicks in.
We don’t yet know the price of the Ioniq 9, but it’s likely to be in the neighborhood of Kia’s three-row electric, the EV9, which starts in the mid-$50,000s and can rise steeply from there. Stellantis’ forthcoming push into the EV market will start with not only pricey premium Jeep SUVs, but also some fun, though relatively expensive, vehicles like the heralded Ramcharger extended-range EV truck and the Dodge Charger Daytona, an attempt to apply machismo-oozing, alpha-male muscle-car marketing to an electric vehicle.
You can see the rationale. It costs a lot to build a battery big enough to power a big EV, so they’re going to be priced higher. Helpfully for the car brands, Americans have proven they will pay a premium for size and power. That’s not to say we’re entering an era of nothing but bloated EV battleships. Models such as the overpowered electric Dodge Charger and Kia EV9 GT will reveal the appetite for performance EVs. Smaller models like the revived Chevy Bolt and Kia’s EV3, already on sale overseas, are coming to America, tax credit or not.
The question for the legacy car companies is where to go from here. It takes years to bring a vehicle from idea to production, so the models on offer today were conceived in a time when big federal support for EVs was in place to buoy the industry through its transition. Now, though, the automakers have some clear uncertainty about what to say.
Chevy, having revealed new electrics like the Equinox EV elsewhere, did not hold a media conference at the L.A. show. Ford, which is having a hellacious time losing money on its EVs, used its time to talk up combustion vehicles including a new version of the palatial Expedition, one of the oversized gas-guzzlers that defined the first SUV craze of the 1990s.
If it’s true that the death of federal subsidies will send EV sales into a slump, we may see messaging from Detroit and elsewhere that feels decidedly retro, with very profitable combustion front-and-center and the all-electric future suddenly less of a talking point. Whatever happens at the federal level, EVs aren’t going away. But as they become a core part of the car business, they are going to get less exciting.
Current conditions: Parts of southwest France that were freezing last week are now experiencing record high temperatures • Forecasters are monitoring a storm system that could become Australia’s first named tropical cyclone of this season • The Colorado Rockies could get several feet of snow today and tomorrow.
This year’s Atlantic hurricane season caused an estimated $500 billion in damage and economic losses, according to AccuWeather. “For perspective, this would equate to nearly 2% of the nation’s gross domestic product,” said AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Jon Porter. The figure accounts for long-term economic impacts including job losses, medical costs, drops in tourism, and recovery expenses. “The combination of extremely warm water temperatures, a shift toward a La Niña pattern and favorable conditions for development created the perfect storm for what AccuWeather experts called ‘a supercharged hurricane season,’” said AccuWeather lead hurricane expert Alex DaSilva. “This was an exceptionally powerful and destructive year for hurricanes in America, despite an unusual and historic lull during the climatological peak of the season.”
AccuWeather
This year’s hurricane season produced 18 named storms and 11 hurricanes. Five hurricanes made landfall, two of which were major storms. According to NOAA, an “average” season produces 14 named storms, seven hurricanes, and three major hurricanes. The season comes to an end on November 30.
California Gov. Gavin Newsom announced yesterday that if President-elect Donald Trump scraps the $7,500 EV tax credit, California will consider reviving its Clean Vehicle Rebate Program. The CVRP ran from 2010 to 2023 and helped fund nearly 600,000 EV purchases by offering rebates that started at $5,000 and increased to $7,500. But the program as it is now would exclude Tesla’s vehicles, because it is aimed at encouraging market competition, and Tesla already has a large share of the California market. Tesla CEO Elon Musk, who has cozied up to Trump, called California’s potential exclusion of Tesla “insane,” though he has said he’s okay with Trump nixing the federal subsidies. Newsom would need to go through the State Legislature to revive the program.
President-elect Donald Trump said yesterday he would impose steep new tariffs on all goods imported from China, Canada, and Mexico on day one of his presidency in a bid to stop “drugs” and “illegal aliens” from entering the United States. Specifically, Trump threatened Canada and Mexico each with a 25% tariff, and China with a 10% hike on existing levies. Such moves against three key U.S. trade partners would have major ramifications across many sectors, including the auto industry. Many car companies import vehicles and parts from plants in Mexico. The Canadian government responded with a statement reminding everyone that “Canada is essential to U.S. domestic energy supply, and last year 60% of U.S. crude oil imports originated in Canada.” Tariffs would be paid by U.S. companies buying the imported goods, and those costs would likely trickle down to consumers.
Amazon workers across the world plan to begin striking and protesting on Black Friday “to demand justice, fairness, and accountability” from the online retail giant. The protests are organized by the UNI Global Union’s Make Amazon Pay Campaign, which calls for better working conditions for employees and a commitment to “real environmental sustainability.” Workers in more than 20 countries including the U.S. are expected to join the protests, which will continue through Cyber Monday. Amazon’s carbon emissions last year totalled 68.8 million metric tons. That’s about 3% below 2022 levels, but more than 30% above 2019 levels.
Researchers from MIT have developed an AI tool called the “Earth Intelligence Engine” that can simulate realistic satellite images to show people what an area would look like if flooded by extreme weather. “Visualizing the potential impacts of a hurricane on people’s homes before it hits can help residents prepare and decide whether to evacuate,” wrote Jennifer Chu at MIT News. The team found that AI alone tended to “hallucinate,” generating images of flooding in areas that aren’t actually susceptible to a deluge. But when combined with a science-backed flood model, the tool became more accurate. “One of the biggest challenges is encouraging people to evacuate when they are at risk,” said MIT’s Björn Lütjens, who led the research. “Maybe this could be another visualization to help increase that readiness.” The tool is still in development and is available online. Here is an image it generated of flooding in Texas:
Maxar Open Data Program via Gupta et al., CVPR Workshop Proceedings. Lütjens et al., IEEE TGRS
A new installation at the Centre Pompidou in Paris lets visitors listen to the sounds of endangered and extinct animals – along with the voice of the artist behind the piece, the one and only Björk.