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The most interesting things I haven’t written about yet.
My inbox and calendar have been filled all year with press releases and requests to chat about new carbon removal technologies, artificial intelligence and its attendant energy demand, novel battery designs, advances in fission and fusion, and investors’ ever-present concerns about how to get all of this to market in time to make a real dent in the climate crisis (and also, you know, a profit).
I wrote about a lot of it — but not all of it, and much of the stuff that got left out is no less worthy of your attention than the stuff that made it. So here I present a roundup of the climate technologies that you might not have read about in Heatmap this year, but that have investors, academics, and the climate world at large buzzing as we look toward 2025.
This fall when I spoke with Amy Duffuor, a co-founder and partner at the venture capital firm Azolla Ventures, she told me that her firm, which is focused on “overlooked and neglected” climate solutions, has been fascinated by the shipping industry. Because while aviation and shipping each account for about 3% of global emissions, decarbonizing flight seems to get the bulk of the attention. “Sometimes it’s hard for people to imagine what they don’t see or what they’re not interacting with on a day to day basis,” Duffuor told me.
This fall, the firm co-led a $4.5 million seed round of investment in clean fuels producer Oxylus Energy, which converts carbon dioxide into green methanol for use in shipping and other transportation fuels. The tech relies on renewable-powered electrolyzers similar to those used to make green hydrogen, but the company’s secret sauce is a special catalyst that can convert carbon dioxide into methanol at low temperature and pressure, making the whole process more efficient and more economical than ever before.
Duffuor told me that green methanol has a leg up on other clean fuels such as green hydrogen, which has a low energy density, or green ammonia, which is highly toxic and corrosive. While supply of all of these is still limited and costly, Duffuor said that retrofitting an engine to run on green methanol is much simpler than adapting to other alternative fuels, which is why it’s already being done on a small scale today. Indeed, shipping giant Maersk has a number of green methanol boats in its fleet, one of which completed the world’s first green methanol-powered voyage last fall.
Long considered “one of climate science’s biggest taboos,” according to Heatmap’s own Robinson Meyer, geoengineering had a big 2024, and it looks poised to be taken increasingly seriously. In fact, one investor I spoke with this month, Lee Larson of Piva Capital, which focuses on decarbonizing heavy industry, told me he foresees a splashy but undeniably controversial funding announcement coming in the near future. “I don’t think it’s going to be Piva, but someone is going to take a bet on this, and there’s going to be a big funding round for a startup in this space,” he predicted. “Because there’s enough interested people with deep pockets that have been thinking about this space for someone to raise money off of it.”
But if nothing else, this year proved that the backlash would be swift. In June, the city council in the small town of Alameda, California, shut down testing of a solar geoengineering device that could one day be used for “marine cloud brightening” — that is, spraying aerosols into the sky to enable clouds to reflect more sunlight away from Earth — and Harvard University abandoned another solar geoengineering project, which aimed to study how aerosol plumes behave in the stratosphere. At the same time, though, the nonprofit Environmental Defense Fund announced that it would fund research into solar geoengineering to help inform policymakers should it one day become regulated, and the UK also committed to supporting research into various solar geoengineering pathways, including conducting outdoor experiments.
“There’s a growing understanding that, on a per unit of warming avoidance basis, this is just way cheaper than carbon dioxide removal solutions,” Larson told me. From his perspective, the world needs to support this type of research lest a layperson, a billionaire, or a small nation choose to go rogue. “Just given how cheap it is, given how little we know about it, that’s a poor combination — because the chance of someone doing something with a lot of unintended consequences goes up and up.”
The idea is pretty straightforward — install solar panels that can float on the surface of reservoirs, canals, lakes, and the like — but this year it really began to pick up steam. There are myriad benefits to this solution: eliminating land use controversies, built-in temperature regulation (water keeps the panels cool, thus increasing their efficiency), and reducing evaporation from the water bodies. A paper published in Nature this June found that floating solar could meet, on average, 16% of countries’ total energy needs.
And countries big and small are taking note. While there aren’t a lot of specialized floating solar startups seeking VC funding, governments as well as traditional solar manufacturers and project developers are stepping up. The U.S. Department of the Interior announced in April that it’s investing $19 million to install panels over irrigation canals in California, Oregon, and Utah. Zimbabwe recently secured $250 million from the African Export-Import Bank to install floating solar on the world’s largest man-made lake, while China turned on the largest offshore solar farm in the world in November. Taiwan and India have also already deployed large installations, and have plans for more.
I spoke with the lead author of the Nature paper, Dr. Iestyn Woolway of the UK-based Bangor University, way back in June about floating solar’s decarbonization potential. Even he was “quite surprised with the number of countries that could meet a sizable fraction of the energy demands by [floating photovoltaics],” he told me. His modeling shows that Bolivia, for example, could meet about 80% of its energy demand with floating solar, while Ethiopia could meet 100% of its demand, with extra energy to spare.
The next step, he said, is gaining a deeper understanding of the ecological impacts of this technology. “Even if you do cover a water body by something small, like 10%, we don’t know what knock-on effect that would have,” he said.
Soils are some of the world’s most effective carbon sinks, and sustainable farming techniques can enhance soil’s natural carbon sequestration potential. Thus, soil carbon sequestration plays at the intersection of the fuzzy and buzzy regenerative agriculture space and the increasingly scientifically rigorous carbon dioxide removal sector, with its carbon crediting schemes and verification requirements. One investor I spoke with, Amy Francetic of Buoyant Ventures, is eager to find and back a company that can merge these two worlds. “If you could figure out how to sink carbon in a farm and do that in a way that is easy to measure and validate, we don’t have a good solution for that today,” she told me.
As of now, Francetic said, startups are going about this problem by doing labor intensive and expensive soil sampling and “marrying that with geospatial data to try to measure what climate benefits there are of changing certain agricultural practices, doing different row crops, changing the crop rotation, the amount of inputs you put into the crops.” Many have pitched Buoyant on their methodologies for bridging satellite data with soil sampling data, but thus far she’s passed. “None of them have, I think, met the standard of reliability that the financial industry would back from a carbon credit standpoint,” she explained. “That might be one of these holy grail things. If somebody could really do that, it could be very impactful.”
I’ll be honest, before this year I didn’t know what parametric insurance was. But since it came up time and again in conversations with investors about extreme weather and the necessity of climate resilience and adaptation measures, I decided to dig in. Here’s what parametric insurance is: an insurance product that automatically provides rapid payouts to customers in the case of natural disasters or weather events, assuming these events exceed a predefined limit. For example, a policyholder might be paid if the rainfall, wind speed, or temperature of a particular weather event is above or below a certain threshold, with the amount tied to how much the measurement deviates from the limit, not the damages incurred.
With extreme weather events getting more frequent and more intense due to climate change, this has given rise to a crop of startups that can leverage sensors, satellites, and artificial intelligence to quickly and accurately measure the extent of these events, thus enabling parametric insurance for a host of new customers. To name a few companies that have taken advantage: There’s Floodbase and FloodFlash (both focusing on flood insurance, naturally), which have each raised over $10 million in Series A financing; FloodFlash made a series of rapid payouts this year following storms in the UK, getting policyholders their money in as little as 10 hours after the water level exceeded its threshold. There’s Arbol, which protects against a host of weather events from drought to heat waves and cold snaps, and raised a $40 million Series B round this year. And there’s Pula, which helps provide parametric insurance to small-holder farmers in emerging markets, and raised a $20 million Series B round this year.
“This is affecting everybody,” Clea Kolster of Lowercarbon Capital, which led Floodbase’s Series A round, told me when we met at this year’s San Francisco Climate Week. “So how do you actually make sure that people have coverage for it and can continue to have as close to livable lives as possible, even when they’re subject to more frequent extreme weather events?” Investors know the storms are going to keep coming, so this category of adaptation tech is only set to grow.
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Elemental Impact, Breakthrough Energy, Speed & Scale, Stanford, Energy Innovation, and McKinsey are all partnering to form the “Climate Tech Atlas.”
The federal government has become an increasingly unreliable partner to climate tech innovators. Now venture capitalists, nonprofits, and academics are embracing a new plan to survive.
On Thursday, an interdisciplinary coalition — including Breakthrough Energy, McKinsey, and Stanford University’s Doerr School of Sustainability — unveiled the Climate Tech Atlas, a new plan to map out opportunities in the sector and define innovation imperatives critical to the energy transition.
The goal is to serve as a resource for stakeholders across the industry, drawing their focus toward the technological frontiers the alliance sees as the most viable pathways to economy-wide decarbonization. The idea is not to eliminate potential solutions, but rather “to enable the next generation of innovators, entrepreneurs, researchers, policymakers, and investors to really focus on where we felt there was the largest opportunity for exploration and for innovation to impact our path to net zero through the lens of technology,” Cooper Rinzler, a key collaborator on the initiative and a partner at the venture capital firm Breakthrough Energy Ventures, told me.
Other core contributors include the nonprofit investor Elemental Impact, John Doerr’s climate initiative Speed & Scale, and the policy think tank Energy Innovation. The Atlas has been a year in the making, Ryan Panchadsaram of Speed & Scale told me. “We’ve had maybe close to 20 to 30 working sessions with 80 different contributors, all focused on the big question of what innovations are needed to decarbonize our economy.”
The website, which launched today, lays out 24 opportunity areas across buildings, manufacturing, transportation, food, agriculture and nature, electricity, and greenhouse gas removal. Diving into “buildings,” for example, one can then drill down into an opportunity area such as “sustainable construction and design,” which lists three innovation imperatives: creating new design tools to improve materials efficiency and carbon intensity, improving building insulation and self-cooling, and industrializing construction to make it faster and more modular.
Then there are the moonshots — 39 in total, and two for this opportunity in particular. The first is developing carbon-negative building coatings and surface materials, and the second is inventing low-carbon building materials that can outperform steel and cement. It’s these types of moonshots, Rinzler told me, where much of the “residual uncertainty” and thus “opportunity for surprise” lies.
Each core collaborator, Panchadsaram said, naturally came into this exercise with their own internal lists and ideas about what types of tech and basic research were needed most. The idea, he told me, was to share “an open source version of what we each had.”
As Dawn Lippert, founder and CEO of Elemental Impact, put it to me, the Atlas “can help accelerate any conversation.” Her firm meets with over 1,000 entrepreneurs per year, she explained, on top of numerous philanthropists trying to figure out where to direct their capital. The Atlas can serve as a one-stop-shop to help them channel their efforts — and dollars — into the most investable and salient opportunities.
The same can be said for research priorities among university faculty, Charlotte Pera, the executive director of Stanford’s Sustainability Accelerator, told me. That then trickles down to help determine what classes, internships, and career paths students interested in the intersection of sustainability and technology ultimately choose.
The coalition members — and the project itself — speak to the prudence of this type of industry-wide level-setting amidst a chaotic political and economic environment. “Referencing the accelerants Speed & Scale identifies as critical to achieving net-zero emissions — policy, grassroots and global movements, innovation, and investment — Panchadsaram told me that “when one is not performing in the way that you want, you have to lean in more into the others.”
These days, of course, it’s U.S. policy that’s falling short. “In this moment in time, at least domestically, innovation and investment is one that can start to fill in that gap,” he said.
This isn’t the first effort to meticulously map out where climate funding, innovation, and research efforts should be directed. Biden’s Department of Energy launched the Earthshots Initiative, which laid out innovation goals and pathways to scale for emergent technologies such as clean hydrogen, long-duration energy storage, and floating offshore wind. But while it’s safe to say that Trump isn’t pursuing the coordinated funding and research that Earthshots intended to catalyze, the private sector has a long and enthusiastic history with strategic mapping.
Breakthrough Energy, for example, had already pinpointed what it calls the “Five Grand Challenges” in reaching net-zero emissions: electricity, transportation, manufacturing, buildings, and agriculture. It then measures the “green premium” of specific technologies — that is, the added cost of doing a thing cleanly — to pinpoint what to prioritize for near-term deployment and where more research and development funding should be directed. Breakthrough's grand challenges closely mirror the sectors identified in the Atlas, which ultimately goes into far greater depth regarding specific subcategories.
Perhaps the pioneer of climate tech mapping is Kleiner Perkins, the storied venture capital firm, where Doerr was a longtime leader and currently serves as chairman; Panchadsaram is also an advisor there. During what investors often refer to as Clean Tech 1.0 — a boom-and-bust cycle that unfolded from roughly 2006 to 2012 — the firm created a “map of grand challenges.” While it appears to have no internet footprint today, in 2009, Bloomberg described it as a “chart of multicolored squares” tracking the firm’s investment across key climate technologies, with blank spots for tech with the potential to be viable — and investable — in the future.
Many of these opportunities failed to pay off, however. The 2008 financial crisis, the U.S. oil and natural gas boom, and slow development timelines for clean tech contributed to a number of high-profile failures, causing investors to sour on clean tech — a precedent the Atlas coalition would like to avoid.
These days, investors tend to tell me that Clean Tech 1.0 taught them to be realistic about long commercialization timelines for climate tech. Breakthrough Energy Ventures, for example, has funds with lengthy 20-year investment horizons. In a follow-up email, Rinzler also noted that even considering the current political landscape, “there’s a far more robust capital, corporate, and policy environment for climate tech than there was in the 2000s.” Now, he said, investors are more likely to consider the broader landscape across tech, finance, and policy when gauging whether a company can compete in the marketplace. And that often translates to a decreased reliance on government support.
“There are quite a few solutions that are embodied here that really don’t have an obligate dependence on policy in any way,” Rinzler told me. “You don’t have to care about climate to think that this is an amazing opportunity for an entrepreneur to come in and tackle a trillion-dollar industry with a pure profit incentive.”
The Atlas also seeks to offer a realistic perspective on its targets’ commercial maturity via a “Tech Category Index.” For example, the Atlas identifies seven technology categories relevant to the buildings sector: deconstruction, disposal and reuse, green materials, appliances, heating and cooling, smart buildings, and construction. While the first three are deemed “pilot” stage, the rest are “commercial.” More nascent technologies such as fusion, as well as many carbon dioxide removal methods are categorized as “lab” stage.
But the Atlas isn’t yet complete, its creators emphasized. Even now they’re contemplating ways to expand, based on what will provide the most value to the sector. “Is it more details on commercial status? Is it the companies that are working on it? Is it the researchers that are doing this in their lab?” Panchadsaram mused. “We are asking those questions right now.”
There’s even a form where citizen contributors can suggest new innovation imperatives and moonshots, or provide feedback on existing ones. “We do really hope that people, when they see this, collaborate on it, build on it, duplicate it, replicate it,” Panchadsaram told me. “This is truly a starting point.”
Zanskar’s second geothermal discovery is its first on untapped ground.
For the past five years or so, talk of geothermal energy has largely centered on “next-generation” or “enhanced” technologies, which make it possible to develop geothermal systems in areas without naturally occurring hot water reservoirs. But one geothermal exploration and development company, Zanskar, is betting that the scope and potential of conventional geothermal resources has been vastly underestimated — and that artificial intelligence holds the key to unlocking it.
Last year, Zanskar acquired an underperforming geothermal power plant in New Mexico. By combining exclusive data on the subsurface of the region with AI-driven analysis, the company identified a promising new drilling site, striking what has now become the most productive pumped geothermal well in the U.S. Today, the company is announcing its second reservoir discovery, this one at an undeveloped site in northern Nevada, which Zanskar is preparing to turn into a full-scale, 20-megawatt power plant by 2028.
“This is probably one of the biggest confirmed resources in geothermal in the last 10 years,” Zanskar’s cofounder and CEO Carl Hoiland told me. When we first connected back in August, he explained that since founding the company in 2019, he’s become increasingly convinced that conventional geothermal — which taps into naturally occurring reservoirs of hot water and steam — will be the linchpin of the industry’s growth. “We think the estimates of conventional potential that are now decades old just all need to be rewritten,” Hoiland told me. “This is a much larger opportunity than has been previously appreciated.”
The past decade has seen a lull in geothermal development in the U.S. as developers have found exploration costs prohibitively high, especially as solar and wind fall drastically in price. Most new projects have involved either the expansion of existing facilities or tapping areas with established resources, spurring geothermal startups such as Fervo Energy and Sage Geosystems to use next-generation technologies to unlock new areas for development.
But Hoiland told me that in many cases, conventional geothermal plants will prove to be the simplest, most cost-effective path to growth.
Zanskar’s new site, dubbed Pumpernickel, has long drawn interest from potential geothermal developers given that it’s home to a cluster of hot springs. But while both oil and gas companies and the federal government have drilled exploratory wells here intermittently since the 1970s, none hit hot enough temperatures for the reservoirs to be deemed commercially viable.
But Zanksar’s AI models — trained on everything from decades old geological and geophysical data sets to newer satellite and remote sensing databases — indicated that Pumpernickel did indeed have adequately hot reservoirs, and showed where to drill for them. “We were able to take the prior data that was seen to be a failure, plug it into these models, and get not just the surface locations that we should drill from, but [the models] even helped us identify what angle and which direction to drill the well,” Hoiland told me.
That’s wildly different from the way geothermal exploration typically works, he explained. Traditionally, a geologist would arrive onsite with their own mental model of the subsurface and tell the team where to drill. “But there are millions of possible models, and there’s no way humans can model all of those fully and quantitatively,” Hoiland told me, hence the industry’s low success rate for exploratory wells. Zanskar can, though. By modeling all possible locations for geothermal reservoirs, the startup’s tools “create a probability distribution that allows you to make decisions with more confidence.”
To build these tools, Hoiland and his cofounder, Joel Edwards, both of whom have backgrounds in geology, tracked down and acquired long forgotten analog data sets mapping the subsurface of regions that were never developed. They digitized these records and fed them into their AI model, which is also trained on fresh inputs from Zanksar’s own data collection team, a group the company launched three years ago. After adding all this information, the team realized that test wells had been drilled in only about 5% of the “geothermally prospective areas of the western U.S.,” leaving the startup with no shortage of additional sites to explore.
“It’s been nine years since a greenfield geothermal plant has been built in the U.S.,” Edwards told me, meaning one constructed on land with no prior geothermal development. “So the intent here is to restart that flywheel of developing greenfield geothermal again.” And while Zanskar would not confirm, Axios reported earlier this month that the company is now seeking to raise a $100 million Series C round to help accomplish this goal.
In the future, Zanskar plans to test and develop sites where exploratory drilling has never even taken place, something the industry essentially stopped attempting decades ago. But these hitherto unknown sites, Edwards said, is where he anticipates “most of the gigawatts” are going to come from in the future.
Hoiland credits all this to advances in AI, which he believes will allow geothermal “to become the cheapest form of energy on the planet,” he told me. Because “if you knew exactly where to drill today, it already would be.”
On EPA’s climate denial, virtual power plants, and Europe’s $50 billion climate reality
Current conditions: In the Atlantic, Tropical Storm Gabrielle is on track to intensify into a hurricane by the weekend, but it’s unlikely to affect the U.S. East Coast • Most of Vermont, New Hampshire, and Maine are under “severe” drought warning • Southeastern Nigeria is facing flooding.
The Federal Reserve announced Wednesday its first interest rate cut of the year, a quarter percentage point drop that aims to bring the federal funds rate down to between 4% and 4.25%. This may, Heatmap’s Matthew Zeitlin reported, “provide some relief to renewables developers and investors, who are especially sensitive to financing costs.” As Advait Arun, a climate and infrastructure analyst at the Center for Public Enterprise, told him: “high rates are never going to be exactly a good thing … it’s going to be good that we’re finally seeing cuts.”
Since solar and wind rely on basically free fuel, the bulk of developers’ costs to build panels or turbines are upfront. That requires borrowing money, meaning interest rates have an outsize impact on the total cost of renewable projects. Renewables carry more debt than fossil fuel plants. When interest rates rise by 2 percentage points, the levelized cost of electricity for renewables rises by 20%, compared to 11% for a gas fired plant, according to a report last year by the energy consultancy Wood Mackenzie.
The United States’ leading scientific advisory body issued what The New York Times called a “major report” on Wednesday detailing “the strongest evidence to date that carbon dioxide, methane, and other planet-warming greenhouse gases are threatening human health.” The study, published by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine, stands athwart the Environmental Protection Agency’s proposal to revoke the endangerment finding. Established in 2009, the legal determination that planet-heating gases cause harm to human health means that the Clean Air Act can be used to underpin regulations on emissions. But the Trump administration proposed rescinding the finding and insisted it could “cast significant doubt” on its accuracy. “
“It’s more serious and more long term damage for them to try to rescind the underlying endangerment finding because depending on what the Supreme Court does with that, it could knock out a future administration from trying to bring it back,” Harvard Law School’s Jody Freeman told Heatmap’s Emily Pontecorvo in July. “Now that would be the nuclear option. That would be their best case scenario. I don’t think that’s likely, but it’s possible.”
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It’s an unlikely scenario. But if all U.S. households built rooftop solar panels and batteries, and adopted efficient electric appliances, the country could offset all the growing demand from data centers. That’s according to a new report by the pro-electrification nonprofit Rewiring America. “Electrifying households is a direct path to meeting the growing power needs of hyperscale data centers while creating a more flexible, resilient, cost-effective grid for all,” Ari Matusiak, the chief executive of Rewiring America, said in a statement. “The household doesn’t have to be a passive energy consumer, at the whim of rising costs. Instead, it can be the hero and, with smart investment, the foundation of a more reliable and affordable energy future.”
With new gas plants, nuclear reactors, and geothermal stations in the works, the U.S. is nowhere close to following a maximalist vision of distributed resources. But the findings highlight how much additional power could be generated on residential rooftops across the U.S. that, if combined with virtual power plant software, could comprise a large new source of clean electricity.
A scorecard highlighting all the ways the virtual power plant industry has grown.Wood Mackenzie
That isn’t to say virtual power plants aren’t having something of a moment. New data from Wood Mackenzie found that virtual power plant capacity expanded 13.7% year over year to reach 37.5 gigawatts. California, Texas, New York, and Massachusetts are the leading states, representing 37% of all VPP deployments. The market last year “broadened more than it deepened,” the consultancy’s report found, with the number of deployments, offtakers, and policy support spurring more adoption. But the residential side remains modest. Their share of the VPP wholesale market’s capacity increased to 10.2% from only about 8.8% last year, “still reflecting market barriers to small customers,” such as access to data and market rules.
“Utility program caps, capacity accreditation reforms, and market barriers have prevented capacity from growing as fast as market activity,” Ben Hertz-Shargel, global head of grid edge for Wood Mackenzie, said in a statement. He added that, “while data centers are the source of new load, there’s an enormous opportunity to tap VPPs as the new source of grid flexibility.”
Record-breaking heat, droughts, fires, and floods cost the European economy at least 43 billion euros, or $50 billion, a new European Central Bank study found. The research, presented this week to European Union lawmakers, used a model based on weather data and estimates of historical impact of extreme weather on 1,160 different regions across the 27-nation bloc. “The true costs of extreme weather surface slowly because these events affect lives and livelihoods through a wide range of channels that extend beyond the initial impact,” Sehrish Usman, an assistant professor at the University of Mannheim who led the study with two economists from the European Central Bank, told The New York Times.
Secretary of Energy Chris Wright believes nuclear fusion plants will be pumping electricity onto grids no later than 2040. In an interview this week with the BBC while traveling in Europe, Wright said he expected the technology to be commercialized in as little as eight years. “With artificial intelligence and what's going on at the national labs and private companies in the United States, we will have that approach about how to harness fusion energy multiple ways within the next five years," Wright told the broadcaster. “The technology, it'll be on the electric grid, you know, in eight to 15 years.” As Heatmap’s Katie Brigham put it recently, it’s “finally, possibly, almost time for fusion.”