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The Pacific Northwest has become the unlikely vanguard in the movement to protect renters from extreme heat.

Washington State’s 2026 legislative session ended not with a bang, but with an alarm. On a drizzly mid-March evening before adjourning for the year, lawmakers filed out of the capitol having narrowly averted a special session over a data center tax break bill. “Someone or something” had set off the rotunda’s fire alarm, according to a local news outlet; returning after the brief delay, legislators cast their final vote, approving the state’s $79.4 billion spending plan.
The alarm was, in many ways, a fitting end to the state’s adrenaline-pumping 60-day short session, which saw 1,669 new bills introduced. Most were DOA due to time and ever-present budget constraints. Among the casualties was HB 2265, a bill to “protect tenants from periods of extreme heat” by extending a landlord’s responsibilities to include adequate cooling in rental units alongside the usual standbys of basic habitability, heat and hot water.
Had the law passed, Washington — somewhat bizarrely — would have gone further than any other state in the country in pushing landlords to provide air conditioning or a similar cooling system to their renters. While such laws might be expected in places like California, Nevada, or Arizona (which comes closest by requiring landlords to maintain ACs that are already installed), in Washington, the largest city, Seattle, was in fact the least air-conditioned metro area in the country until 2021, and remains second only to San Francisco.
“A lot of people think of the Pacific Northwest as mossy, mountainous, green, and damp,” John Seng, the policy manager at Spark Northwest, a Seattle-based clean energy nonprofit, told me. “But that misses out that on the east side of both Oregon and Washington, things have been getting really hot for a long time.”
Indoor air temperature maximums are not a new idea — Dallas has had one since 2017 — but the few laws on the books are almost exclusively in hot-climate cities and counties. Yet extreme heat is spreading: Between 1970 and 2022, 95% of the nearly 250 U.S. locations analyzed by Climate Central saw an increase in the number of days per year with dangerously high temperatures, with an average increase of 21 days. At the same time, one in three Americans is a renter — a population far less likely to have central AC than homeowners. Though the Pacific Northwest would seem to be an unlikely leader in protecting people from extreme heat, it has nevertheless become a bellwether for the ability of local officials to protect their residents from increasingly deadly temperatures.
“We are changing our climate so much that now, in most places in the country, cooling is just as necessary as heating,” Brian Henning, the director and founder of the Gonzaga Institute for Climate, Water, and the Environment, told me.
Washington isn’t alone in responding to the changing conditions in its corner of the country. A similar story is playing out in Oregon, which failed to pass its own early-stage right-to-cooling bill, SB 54, during last year’s legislative session. (That bill would have required landlords of multi-family buildings to provide cooling when outdoor temperatures exceed 80 degrees.) Now, Portland’s Permitting and Development Bureau is exploring a maximum-temperature code for rentals, which activists hope will serve as a model for a legislative sponsor to take up in a future statewide session.
“It feels like the Pacific Northwest is beginning to grapple with questions that desert cities addressed decades ago, which is, namely: What constitutes a safe indoor temperature during extreme heat?” Vivek Shandas, the founder of the Sustaining Urban Places Research Lab at Portland State University, told me of the proliferation of such bills, ordinances, and laws in the area.
That ponderance is coming not a moment too soon. Of the 75 counties in Washington and Oregon, residents in all but seven have disproportionately low concern given their respective extreme-heat risks, according to research by Yale’s Program on Climate Change Communication published in Nature Communications this month. Of those 75 counties, just three scored below the national median on the CDC’s Heat & Health Index, a risk measurement that considers indicators such as historical heat exposure, prevalence of health conditions such as cardiovascular disease or diabetes, and socioeconomic factors like age and income. Nearly a third scored well within the upper range of risk nationally. Combined with the fact that architecture in the Northwest was designed for decades to retain heat, and that the region has some of the fastest-warming urban areas in the country, the upper left-hand corner of the country is uniquely susceptible — and unprepared — for extreme heat, the deadliest climate change and weather-related disaster in North America.
That fact was made tragically clear during the 2021 heat dome, the record-breaking, model-breaking event that killed more than 250 people across the states and served as the catalyst for housing activists, climate organizers, and policymakers. Though researchers like Shandas, who studies urban heat, had been aware that the Northwest was a public-health disaster waiting to happen, there were a few particularly startling takeaways: Though “most people think of heat risk as something that happens outside,” Shandas said, the vast majority of the people who died during the heat dome died inside, and most were likely renters living in multifamily homes. Some were even found with fans turned on full blast, pointed directly at their bodies.
“A lot of people don’t know that if your space is higher than about 90 degrees indoors, a fan actually increases your risk of heat‑related illness or death, not decreases it,” Henning said. That’s because a fan cools you by moving air over your skin to wick away sweat, a process that accelerates dehydration and can actually radiate heat into your body if the air temperature is warmer than your skin. Even worse, rather than lowering the indoor temperature, fans give an “illusion of safety,” Dante Jester, the climate resilience program manager at the Gonzaga Institute for Climate, Water, and the Environment, told me, so people delay moving to a genuinely cool place or calling for help.
“People’s cooling strategies that they’ve used for decades in Spokane” — where more than 300 people were hospitalized during the 2021 heat dome — “aren’t working anymore,” Jester went on. “Historically, people would open their windows at night. They would go for a drive and run the AC with their kids in the car seats. They would run fans. But all of these things are becoming less and less efficient and more and more dangerous.” What’s more, as smoke becomes an increasing public health hazard due to the duration and intensity of the fire season, officials are more reluctant to tell people to keep their windows open for a cross-breeze.
How, then, to keep renters — who make up between 30% and 40% of the households in Washington and Oregon — safe? The answer: Incrementally. Though HB 2265 died in committee this spring, Democratic lawmakers managed to pass its sister bill, SB 6200, even during a short session dominated by efforts to balance the budget and debate over the Millionaires Tax. The Senate bill makes it illegal for a landlord in Washington state to prevent a renter from installing their own AC unit — that is, it is an access law rather than a habitability one.
“The statewide policy that passed [SB 6200] was actually based on the renter’s right-to-install ordinance that we helped pass in Spokane in 2024,” Jester said. “We thought of it at the time as a first step, or an on-ramp, to this greater goal of requiring residencies to be cooled.”
If the Spokane right-to-install AC ordinance was the on-ramp to statewide adoption, then the failure of HB 2265 could potentially be shrugged off as jumping the gun. That’s because activists in Spokane are now testing whether true right-to-cooling legislation can find a pathway forward via a local ordinance, which would make it a legal requirement for landlords to provide a way to keep their units under 80 degrees Fahrenheit, the same way temperature minimums ensure they provide heat in the winter.
Shandas, the Sustaining Urban Places Research Lab researcher, told me he conceptualizes the path forward for right-to-cooling laws in the Northwest as a three-step approach. The first stage is permission — laws like the 2024 ordinance in Spokane and SB 6200.
The second stage is recognition of extreme heat as an imminent public health threat. Though the now-dead HB 2265 would have been a big push toward requiring landlord-provided ACs in rental units, it didn’t do so explicitly; rather, it tweaked the state’s rental code to include cooling alongside heating as a basic habitability requirement. A bill like HB 2183, which also died during the 2026 session, would have further required Washington counties to develop and implement heat response plans, which gets at the bills’ larger purpose: to grapple with the fact that the housing stock, legal system, policies, electrical systems, and even emergency services in the Northwest are all designed for a cooler climate.
Though it feels like an in-between stage, recognition is especially crucial, James Moschella, the climate and health program manager at Washington Physicians for Social Responsibility, a health professional-fronted environmental advocacy group, told me. When paramedics respond to a case of heat stroke, for example, the first thing they often do is place the patient in the bathtub in their own home, along with everything in their freezer, to try to lower their body temperature as quickly as possible. “Ambulance response times during the heat dome were significantly down because of the way they have to treat people at their homes,” Moschella said. “As a result, by the time paramedics often got to a home, in many cases the person was already dead.” One small part of a comprehensive heat plan would be anticipating that problem, perhaps by staging more ambulances on a hot day.
The third stage is performance standards — that is, defining enforceable indoor temperature limits, like what Spokane is moving toward. “I think this evolution mirrors how heating standards developed historically in other parts of the world,” Shandas said. “Unfortunately, I think we need to be accelerating this much faster, going from stage one to three in a fraction of the time that it took lower latitude regions to go through.”
Because there are few examples of existing temperature maximum laws, though, policymakers and researchers in the Northwest are feeling their way forward mostly on their own. Even something as basic as what the maximum temperature should be requires ponderance, debate, and compromise. In Spokane, policymakers settled on 80 degrees. “It’s similar to how it was done for heating, that every habitable space needs to be able to get up to 65 [degrees],” Shandas said. “Some would say, Wow, 65 is really high for a cold day, can’t you get by with 60? And it’s like, sure, you can, but you’re trying to make policy for a very large, diverse demographic.”
Eighty degrees Fahrenheit, while generally safe for most populations, is the point at which the body may begin to feel the stress or undergo physiological responses that affect certain medications, such as antipsychotics. Still, Henning told me he’d advocated for an even lower limit given existing research on safe sleeping temperatures, which puts the range closer to 74 to 76 degrees, especially for seniors and the very young.
Implementation is also a topic of discussion. Housing advocates in Spokane wanted to go beyond a “right to install AC” ordinance, not just because they believe cooling deserves to be recognized as a legal habitability requirement like heating, but also because of the potential financial burden of acquiring, installing, and especially running an air conditioner. What’s unique about the Spokane ordinance, though, is that it sets an expected indoor temperature rather than mandating how that temperature is achieved. “The goal isn’t to force people to buy air conditioning,” Henning said, “but to provide spaces that are safe.” Maybe the 80-degree threshold could be maintained, for example, by shading building windows with trees.
Powerful landlord advocacy groups have generally opposed right-to-cooling movements on the grounds that they’re very expensive. (Multifamily NW, a landlord trade association and one of the major opponents of Oregon’s SB 54, and Rental Housing Association of Washington, which opposed HB 2265, did not respond to my requests for comment.) Retrofitting costs, electrical capacity, and grid stress are legitimate concerns, Shandas told me. “Even heat pumps,” he said, “are pretty energy-hungry appliances, and older multifamily residential homes might not have good insulation or windows,” meaning you could end up with the efficiency conundrum the Rocky Mountain Institute’s Amory Lovins has memorably likened to running an AC in a tent.
Other researchers were less sympathetic to this case. “Infrastructure costs money, and that’s what landlords are agreeing to when they choose to buy units and then have them paid for by other people,” Jester told me. “That’s how it goes: If you’re renting to people, it should be a requirement that it has to be livable, in my opinion.”
Who pays, though, is one of the major questions of climate adaptation. No one is arguing that extreme heat isn’t dangerous. But is it on tenants, landlords, utilities, or governments to front the costs of making their homes and communities livable?
The problem sounds daunting, put that way. And the pressure is on: By Shandas’ estimation, what happens in Spokane and Portland, and eventually at the state level in Washington and Oregon, “is really going to be the test case for what the legal right to cooling looks like” in the United States. Organizers and researchers in Massachusetts, New York, and Minnesota have already reached out to him about their own efforts to codify maximum temperatures into law. “These are all higher-latitude regions that are looking to the Pacific Northwest and saying, Holy crap, yeah, we have to get ready for this, because if it could happen in Portland and Seattle, it can happen anywhere. We were the bellwether,” Shandas said.
But next year will be another tight budget year in Washington, and while Democrats control the legislature, HB 2265 will need tweaks to get a broader coalition on board. “I think nobody was quite ready to move without a little bit more of a plan on exactly how we would define healthy temperatures and measure them,” Seng, of Spark Northwest, told me of its initial failure.
“Another piece is cost,” Seng added. “I think housing developers get pretty squeamish about new requirements like that.” Sure enough, landlords have successfully watered down temperature regulations elsewhere, including L.A. County, which last year approved a maximum indoor temperature of 82 degrees for rentals located outside city limits — albeit with plenty of exemptions and delays available for property owners. Landlord groups have also so far successfully staved off a California-wide temperature maximum law by pouring millions into lobbying efforts.
But even more than the usual happy warrior attitude typical of activists, the researchers in Washington and Oregon described the right-to-cooling laws as inevitable, given the climate. The question is whether a multi-stage approach or the fast-track pursuit of local ordinances, rather than the sluggish statewide process, will yield results soon enough. The heat dome baking Europe this week serves as an ominous reminder that extreme heat may return to the region at any time, and the Northwest has had only five short years since its wake-up call in 2021 to prepare.
But prepare it has. “The legal invention of cooling rights — that’s part of what I’m really excited to be alive right now to see,” Shandas said.
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New polling by Heatmap and Embold Research shows where one of climate advocates’ favorite arguments for renewables is falling short.
It’s the million-dollar question of clean energy advocacy: How do you persuade climate change skeptics to love renewables?
For years, the clean energy industry has treated the fact that renewables are the cheapest form of new electricity as its messaging trump card. This argument has the advantage of being true. Yes, there is nuance, room for debate, and always the possibility that things could change dramatically in the future. But this summer, the investment bank Lazard reconfirmed what the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory and the International Renewable Energy Agency — and plenty of other independent analyses — had found before it: that wind and solar energy are, on the whole, cheaper than fossil fuels.
And yet according to new polling and focus group conversations conducted by Heatmap News and Embold Research, the affordability argument barely moves the needle for the segment of the American public that most needs convincing. More than two-thirds (78%) of voters who are “doubtful” or “dismissive” of climate change — a population segment described by the Yale Program on Climate Communications and that we have labeled as “skeptics” — told us they believe that advocates for wind and solar energy exaggerate how cheap the sources have become (a mere 17% disagreed).
Even for those in the middle who are “persuadable” on climate change (as opposed to the “persuadeds,” who describe themselves as “alarmed” about it), an affordability argument doesn’t land cleanly — 62% believed the claims are exaggerated compared to 24%. In fact, a majority of all voters — 55% — told us that wind and solar are only cost-competitive with oil and gas because of subsidies, even as 75% acknowledge that oil and gas companies get government help lowering costs, too.
Inflation Reduction Act postmortems have a tendency to hand-wring about the Biden administration and its proxies’ lack of success pitching the affordability angle to the American public. Our polling backed up some of this. The pervasive conviction seems to be that the economic upsides of renewable energy aren’t real: 57% of all voters (and 78% of the subset of climate change skeptics) said clean energy advocates exaggerate how cheap wind and solar have become.
But as clean energy advocates look ahead to what to try the next time, our polling offers a cautionary note: The messenger, not just the message, needs a tweak. Independent scientists and researchers were the only group trusted by a majority of voters (63%), and even then, skeptics remained difficult to break through with, as less than a third putting their trust in any messenger at all.
If there’s a bright spot in our polling, it’s that attacks on clean energy have also apparently failed to gain traction. When we asked voters in a separate poll what they think is driving their bills higher, clean energy was among the least identified factors. Just 31% of voters blamed the renewable energy industry, compared with 58% who picked out new data center construction, 55% for the oil and gas industry, 52% for the aging electrical grid, and 48% for rising electricity demand. Our polling appears to describe, then, an electorate that doesn’t blame clean energy for raising electricity bills, but also doesn’t buy the messaging that it could help bring them down.
Breaking through with skeptics and persuadables is obviously the key for turning public opinion in favor of clean energy. In pursuit of that goal, Embold conducted interviews with voters to better understand where the potential openings might be for clean energy messaging to break through — and to identify the kind of language that might hamper that goal. But even after synthesizing the findings and crafting a political message designed to appeal to skeptics’ concerns — one that highlighted the falling cost of renewable electricity alongside arguments about energy security and job creation — a mere 7% of skeptics found it “extremely believable.” “Without my tax dollars, [renewables are] too expensive,” one Trump voter told us. “It will all be in a landfill in 20 years!” (Note that “skeptics” isn’t a political designation, although 89% of them told us they voted for President Trump in the last election.)
Heatmap’s polling offered a more pessimistic view of the electorate compared to comparable polling by other groups, which have found that messages about bringing down electricity bills via increasing clean energy resonate across the broad political spectrum. “We obviously do a fair amount of phone polling, and we’ve been surprised how positive people have been on clean energy and how much they see it as a central part of the solution to the energy affordability crisis that everybody is feeling,” Jesse Lee, a senior advisor at the advocacy and communications organization Climate Power, told me. (Climate Power’s poll notably looks at the whole electorate — skeptics, persuadables, and persuadeds alike — rather than segmenting their findings for more specific messaging purposes.) “But,” he agreed, “certainly there are holdouts.”
Just 20% of the skeptics Embold surveyed, for instance, told us that seeing a comparison of what families saved on their electricity bills after installing rooftop solar would improve their opinion of the technology’s affordability — and 54% said nothing could convince them that solar was affordable. A full 75% of skeptics also agreed with the statement that clean energy technologies such as rooftop solar, electric heat pumps, and electric vehicles have a high enough upfront cost that the savings over time wouldn’t be “worth it.” When asked about utility-scale generation, skeptics viewed nuclear, coal, and natural gas as the least expensive options, with wind being the most expensive, followed by solar.
I asked Lee at Climate Power if he thinks it’s worth trying to reach these entrenched climate skeptics, who make up 22% of the electorate according to our polling. “To the extent that there are limited resources, that’s probably not where you spend all your time,” he said. “You shoot for people that are at least a little bit open to it — but who might be the neighbors of [the skeptics],” he said.
“If that neighbor gets solar panels on their roof, and suddenly they’re walking around the neighborhood telling people their electricity bill was $0 last month, that’s going to have a lot more effect on a person who’s entrenched than hearing a political message from a political group,” Lee went on.
Among people who said they don’t have or can’t afford solar, just 28% told us that “seeing data showing how much money families save on their electricity bills” with solar would help convince them on its affordability. That beat out tax credits (24%), lower upfront costs (23%), financing options (19%) — and yes, “hearing about a neighbor or friend who saved money after getting solar,” which only 12% of people said might change their minds. And though only 20% of skeptics said being shown bill data would change their opinion, bill data was also the only messaging approach that ranked at or near the top of all groups alike.
Unsurprisingly, the “persuadables” group turned out to be more responsive on the question of whether clean energy is affordable. More than a quarter (27%) were receptive to bill savings data, and 60% said they trusted scientists as messengers. But crafting that message is still an uphill battle with the demographic: When Embold tailored a statement intended to move the group, fewer than three in 10 actually found it convincing.
Winning on messaging about clean energy affordability, then, is far more complicated than simply laying out facts and comparisons of renewables in a speech or advertisement. Being asked the question in a poll is not the same as a real-world test case, of course, but, but the wrong messenger risks alienating the people who most need to be convinced, our research shows. Proof needs to be local and tailored — perhaps an impossible ask of a national or even state-level general campaign.
Cost, as a message, is still a winner, in other words. But the window for communicating on it is far narrower than many advocates likely realize. As one 2024 third-party voter told us after reading Embold’s three tailored messages on clean energy, “I don’t really like any of them. They all seem to just be telling me the ‘truth,’ but I don’t know the truth without evidence.”
This is the first in a series of Heatmap reports on how U.S. voters view climate, clean energy, and sustainability issues. If you'd like to receive our latest updates, downloadable reports, and invitations for special briefings, please fill out this form.
On solar manufacturing, New England gas, and Pacific Northwest geothermal
Current conditions: The Pacific just can’t catch a break this hurricane season as forecasters warn that a new tropical development called Invest 96E could form in the next two days off Baja California, right behind Hurricane Lowell • In Indonesia, the wildfires blazing through the peatlands and forests of Borneo and Sumatra are now emitting by far the most carbon dioxide of any blazes in the world • A late-summer heat wave is sending temperatures along the California coastline beyond 100 degrees Fahrenheit this week.
When Alphabet inked its first nuclear deal in 2024, the Google parent company opted to back a next-generation, fluoride salt-cooled reactor startup called Kairos Power. Six months later, the tech behemoth contracted Elementl Power, a nuclear project developer that works with all kinds of reactors, to scout locations for deploying novel atomic technologies. Last October, Google broadened its approach to focus on large-scale reactors that either already existed or were under development. The company eyed financing the construction of the abandoned Westinghouse AP1000s planned for the V.C. Summer plant in South Carolina before the project went under nearly a decade ago. Then Google and NextEra began laying the groundwork to restart the Duane Arnold nuclear station, Iowa’s only such plant, which shut down in 2020. As I told you on Tuesday, that latter deal took a major step forward when the Department of Energy pledged $1.9 billion toward bringing the single 615-megawatt reactor back online.
Now Google is exporting its strategy to Europe. On Wednesday, the giant announced a 22-year power purchase agreement with the Finnish utility Fortum Oyj to extend the life of the Loviisa nuclear station by buying as much as 50% of its electricity from 2030 to 2049. The contract — the first of its kind in Europe to provide for direct power purchases between a specific power plant and a hyperscaler — starts in 2028.
The deal is part of a broader $15.1 billion investment into artificial intelligence infrastructure throughout Finland over the next two years, and will direct roughly $1.1 billion toward the plant’s relicensing. “Long-term partnerships like the one between Fortum and Google are essential to making that happen, especially in today’s uncertain market environment characterized by low visibility and highly volatile electricity prices,” Fortum CEO Markus Rauramo said in a statement. In a text message last night, Emmet Penney, the director of energy and infrastructure at the Foundation for American Innovation, told me it was once “fashionable to say that nuclear was dead in the West, that we could only look on as nuclear slouched toward its demise and irrelevance.” Now, however, “Google is doing the world a favor by showing why and how that view was wrong” by demonstrating willingness to put its money where its mouth is to expand the power supply, he said. “Some things are fads, but nuclear is never out of season.”
Global investments in manufacturing clean technology fell 14% in the first quarter of 2026 and another 7% in the second three-month window, according to an analysis by the Rhodium Group’s Clean Investment Monitor released Thursday of the first half of this year. For the first time, China’s share of green manufacturing investments dipped below a third, marking a significant decline from its peak of over 71% in 2023. A major drop in the expansion of solar panel factories accounted for much of the slowdown. Investments in new factories fell by 83% in the second quarter of 2026 compared to the peak in the last three months of 2023. China accounted for 94% of the decline. But China’s contraction came with expansion elsewhere. India, for example, saw solar factory investments accelerate from 5% to 48%, making it the largest net contributor for the past four quarters. Solar manufacturing is expanding in the U.S., and the Department of Commerce’s new import duties on the polysilicon needed to make most panel components should help that continue. But the overall picture for clean energy investment, as my colleague Emily Pontecorvo described in the spring, is mixed.
There are green shoots, however. While the amount of capital spent on construction of new manufacturing and industrial plants slowed, the value of such investments rose 10% in the first quarter of this year and held steady in the second quarter, breaking a 10-quarter streak of declines in announced investments. The bulk of the deals were in critical minerals, wind, sustainable aviation fuel, batteries, and — yes — solar. But there’s also more coal. On Thursday morning, the International Energy Agency forecast global coal demand to reach a record high of nearly 9 billion metric tons this year.
The U.S. has enough solar panels in operation today to power more than 50 million American homes, representing over a third of households. That’s according to the latest market analysis conducted by the consultancy Wood Mackenzie on behalf of the Solar Energy Industries Association and released early this morning. Solar developers added 11.4 gigawatts of generating capacity in the second quarter of 2026, a 45% increase from the same period last year and 43% increase from the first three months of this year. Most of that new capacity came from utility-scale projects, which added 9.6 gigawatts — a 61% year-over-year leap. “Solar and storage have grown to a scale most Americans have yet to fully realize and we simply can’t meet America’s growing energy needs without these technologies,” Tim Pawlenty, the chief executive of the solar industry’s leading trade group, said in a statement.
It’s a milestone for solar’s expansion, and highlights the competitiveness of the technology despite the Trump administration’s crackdown on renewables it criticizes as too weather dependent. But it’s only a description of capacity. It’s virtually impossible for all the solar panels in the country to produce power at the same time, and the swings in electricity production are ultimately what draw criticism from those who instead push for generating stations that can pump out power at all times of day. That, in my view, makes the most important signal in the report the speed of the growth, demonstrating how quickly solar can come online and serve surging demand.
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Yesterday I told you that a federal court overturned the water permits New Jersey issued for construction of a pipeline to carry more natural gas into the Northeast, delivering a blow to the pipeline push the region is gearing up for as winter energy demands increasingly become what my colleague Matthew Zeitlin described bluntly last year as “a problem.” But there’s some good news, via the latest analysis from the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Enough cheap gas is flowing into New England at a moment when consumption is relatively low to push down prices. Natural gas prices at Algonquin Citygate, a trading and pricing hub in Boston that averages out what New England is paying for the fuel, are now trading at a discount compared to the main U.S. benchmark, the Henry Hub. Prices at Algonquin Citygate averaged 43 cents per million British thermal units less than Henry Hub from April through July. Part of the price drop came from a drop in demand as home heating fell off during the summer and solar generation increased during longer sunny days. Increased supply from Appalachia was another factor, as was a spike in imports from Canada.
Emissions of greenhouse gases from fossil fuels and agriculture are widely recognized as the primary drivers behind rising global temperatures. But scientists have long warned that, as the planet grows hotter, natural feedback loops will begin to pump more emissions into the atmosphere, from methane seeping out from decaying ancient material in thawing permafrost or carbon dioxide spewing from infernos like those scorching Indonesia’s biggest islands. A new study suggests that those warming-induced greenhouse gases from natural sources could amplify global warming by 20% to 30% this century, adding as much 0.4 degrees Celsius to the global temperature average. The authors of the study, published early Thursday morning in the journal Environmental Research Letters, billed it as the largest effort to date to quantify the combined impact of carbon dioxide and methane from permafrost thaw, wildfires, wetlands, and inland waterways. Permafrost thaw, however, comprises roughly half the projected emissions. The authors came from Stanford University, Woodwell Climate Research Center, research nonprofit Spark Climate Solutions, and the advocacy group Environmental Defense Fund. Even if emissions from human activities reached net zero, greenhouse gases could create feedback loops that raise global temperatures by at least 0.2 degrees Celsius by 2100. A higher emissions scenario could be twice that much warming.
“The results are a wake-up call, and it’s imperative that they be included in the next generation of climate policies,” Robert Jackson, the Stanford University professor and chair of the Global Carbon Project who co-authored the paper, said in a statement.
The Pacific Northwest is poised for a big geothermal push. Hexagon Energy, an independent energy developer, and timber and wood giant Weyerhaeuser Company just inked a strategic partnership that will clear the way for geothermal projects across the latter company’s vast property portfolio in Oregon and Washington. “Geothermal energy represents an emerging opportunity to provide clean and reliable, around-the-clock power, and our ownership presents a unique platform to evaluate that potential in the Pacific Northwest,” Kendall Fountain, Weyerhaeuser’s vice president of energy and natural resources, said in a statement. Once built, the projects are expected to generate up to 3 gigawatts of power.
A new paper from Energy Innovation and GridLab lays out some options for Governor Gavin Newsom — or whoever comes next.
California’s continued progress on climate change may depend on whether the state can find a way to bring down its high electricity rates, which hurt the economics of cleaner technologies like electric vehicles and heat pumps and make climate action more politically difficult.
Ahead of the upcoming governor’s race, the clean energy research firms Energy Innovation and GridLab convened a group of more than 20 local electricity experts to develop a policy roadmap for the state’s next administration to reduce energy costs. They published the findings on Thursday, describing a number of opportunities for policymakers to better manage utility spending and more fairly allocate costs among utilities, residents, and communities.
“There is so much work to be done to correct for and address the underlying forces that have led to consistent rate increases over the last 25 years,” Mike O’Boyle, the senior director for policy and strategy at Energy Innovation, told me. There are also no quick fixes, he added. Instead, the report offers directional solutions rather than specific policy proposals, recognizing that it will take years of sustained leadership to make progress.
By far the most significant force driving California’s high rates, especially over the past decade, is the cost of responding to and preventing catastrophic wildfires. The state Public Advocate’s office recently found that the wildfire-related share of the average customer’s bill is 14% to 19%, or $21 to $41 per month.
Just before the Labor Day weekend, Governor Gavin Newsom faced a showdown with the legislature over his proposal for how to reallocate wildfire liability. For weeks, Newsom had been pushing lawmakers for a package that would reduce the amount of money utilities would be on the hook for after their equipment sparks a wildfire. One of his priorities was to outlaw subjugation, a mechanism by which insurance companies sue utilities to recover the cost of paying out wildfire claims. Newsom was responding to pleas from utilities warning that their credit would be downgraded unless the state reduced their share of the risk. Lower credit ratings would mean increased borrowing costs and, ultimately, higher electricity rates.
The full details of Newsom’s package were never released to the public, but it saw major pushback from insurance companies and victims groups who framed it as a "utility bailout.” Eventually, with just a few days left on the legislative calendar, the governor and legislature put out a compromise bill. It did nothing on subrogation, but it would have blocked hedge funds from buying up and reaping profits from insurance claims, and blocked bonuses for C-suite utility officers when the company sparks a fire.
Despite the supposed compromise, the bill died on the floor of the Assembly. Speaker Robert Rivas said it “does not yet deliver the relief, accountability or meaningful reform that Californians deserve” and vowed to go back to work to “deliver real results.”
Lawmakers may have been convinced by the market’s quick reaction to the bill. The Monday after it was released, California utility PG&E’s stock dropped 20%, while Edison International, which owns Southern California Edison, saw a drop of 23%. Last Wednesday, after the deal had fallen apart, PG&E announced that it would defer $2 billion in capital spending for the next year. In a pre-recorded video, the company’s CEO Patti Poppe discussed how far the company has come since its 2019 bankruptcy, praising its recent track record of no ignitions and innovative investments in grid modernization, but said it was “unable to fund the continued transformation at our current pace. When risks go up, lenders charge more.”
The issue Newsom was trying to address stems from the fact that California assigns full liability to utilities when their equipment sparks a wildfire, regardless of whether the incident was the result of negligence. That’s only one part of the problem, however. The other is that the state leans heavily on utilities to do the majority of its wildfire prevention work, rather than spreading out the responsibility across a broader array of residents and communities. The liability policy also amplifies the second issue, as it creates a perverse incentive for utilities and their regulators to try to reduce the risk of sparking a fire to as close to zero as possible, no matter the cost.
Electricity ratepayers cover both the liability utilities face after a fire as well as the cost of all of that risk reduction — but they spend far more on the latter. Between 2019 and 2024, utility regulators authorized the state’s three private electric companies to recover $40 billion in wildfire-related costs from its ratepayers. Just a third were liability-related costs, such as insurance premiums and payments into a fund utilities can draw on to cover settlements with victims. The rest was mitigation.
The Energy Innovation and GridLab report puts aside thorny questions about wildfire liability and focuses on addressing this mitigation side of the issue with three overarching recommendations.
First, California needs a better way to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of different types of wildfire mitigation. Part of the issue is that when a utility says it needs to spend $200 million on tree trimming in Lake Tahoe, for example, regulators don’t have the tools to assess whether there’s a more cost effective alternative. Maybe $100 million on tree trimming with another $20 million for other kinds of community hardening would provide the same amount of risk reduction.
Second, the state could better leverage public finance, for example by expanding the use of ratepayer-backed bonds to pay for wildfire mitigation. California started down this path in a big utility package passed last year, authorizing utilities to borrow $6 billion from ratepayers through 2035 — a lower-cost form of finance than investor equity. Utilities are spending $9 billion per year on wildfires, however, so that measure was a drop in the bucket.
Third, the state should more equitably spread the responsibility of mitigating wildfire risks, re-allocating some costs from ratepayers to taxpayers and at-risk communities. Utilities spend $9 billion a year on wildfire-related costs, but the state’s Department of Forestry and Fire Protection’s most recent mitigation budget was just $440 million. “The reality is that the status quo of ratepayers paying for all this is untenable,” O’Boyle said. Utility-led mitigation focuses on preventing ignitions, but it doesn’t address factors unrelated to electric infrastructure that can worsen a blaze, such as overgrown forests, development near wildlands, and brush surrounding homes.
While the fracas around Newsom’s compromise package focused on the liability aspects, the bill would have also taken small steps toward some of these recommendations. It required CalFIRE to develop standards for wildfire risk reporting data and incorporate them into community risk reduction metrics — a move toward better evaluations of the most cost-effective measures.
It also would have required the state’s Natural Resources Agency to create a comprehensive statewide community wildfire preparedness strategy, provide support for counties to develop protection plans that align with the strategy, and base state support on communities’ annual progress updates.
We’ll see if any of that gets salvaged. While the legislative session is officially over, Newsom could still call a special session to get a wildfire bill done this year.