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The Biden administration is hoping they’ll be a starting gun for the industry. The industry may or may not be fully satisfied.
In one of the Biden administration’s final acts to advance decarbonization, and after more than two years of deliberation and heated debate, the Treasury Department issued the final requirements governing eligibility for the clean hydrogen tax credit on Friday.
At up to $3 per kilogram of clean hydrogen produced, this was the most generous subsidy in the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act, and it came with significant risks if the Treasury did not get the rules right. Hydrogen could be an important tool to help decarbonize the economy. But without adequate guardrails, the tax credit could turn it into a shovel that digs the U.S. deeper into a warming hole by paying out billions of dollars to projects that increase emissions rather than reducing them.
In the final guidelines, the Biden administration recognized the severity of this risk. It maintained key safeguards from the rules proposed in 2023, while also making a number of changes, exceptions, and other “flexibilities” — in the preferred parlance of the Treasury Department — that sacrifice rigorous emissions accounting in favor of making the program easier to administer and take advantage of.
For example, it kept a set of requirements for hydrogen made from water and electricity known as the “three pillars.” Broadly, they compel producers to match every hour of their operation with simultaneous clean energy generation, buy this energy from newly built sources, and ensure those sources are in the same general region as the hydrogen plant. Hydrogen production is extremely energy-intensive, and the pillars were designed to ensure that it doesn’t end up causing coal and natural gas plants to run more. But the final rules are less strict than the proposal. For example, the hourly matching requirement doesn’t apply until 2030, and existing nuclear plants count as new zero-emissions energy if they are considered to be at risk of retirement.
Finding a balance between limiting emissions and ensuring that the tax credit unlocks development of this entirely new industry was a monumental challenge. The Treasury Department received more than 30,000 comments on the proposed rule, compared to about 2,000 for the clean electricity tax credit, and just 89 for the electric vehicle tax credit. Senior administration officials told me this may have been the most complicated of all of the provisions in the IRA. In October, the department assured me that the rules would be finished by the end of the year.
Energy experts, environmental groups, and industry are still digesting the rule, and I’ll be looking out for future analyses of the department’s attempt at compromise. But initial reactions have been cautiously optimistic.
On the environmental side, Dan Esposito from the research nonprofit Energy Innovation told me his first impression was that the final rule was “a clear win for the climate” and illustrated “overwhelming, irrefutable evidence” in favor of the three pillars approach, though he did have concerns about a few specific elements that I’ll get to in a moment. Likewise, Conrad Schneider, the U.S. senior director at the Clean Air Task Force, told me that with the exception of a few caveats, “we want to give this final rule a thumbs up.”
Princeton University researcher Jesse Jenkins, a co-host of Heatmap’s Shift Key podcast and a vocal advocate for the three pillars approach, told me by email that, “Overall, Treasury’s final rules represent a reasonable compromise between competing priorities and will provide much-needed certainty and a solid foundation for the growth of a domestic clean hydrogen industry.”
On the industry side, the Fuel Cell and Hydrogen Energy Association put out a somewhat cryptic statement. CEO Frank Wolak applauded the administration for making “significant improvements” but warned that the rules were “still extremely complex” and contain several open-ended parts that will be subject to interpretation by the incoming Trump-Vance administration.
“This issuance of Final Rules closes a long chapter, and now the industry can look forward to conversations with the new Congress and new Administration regarding how federal tax and energy policy can most effectively advance the development of hydrogen in the U.S.,” Wolak said.
Constellation Energy, the country’s biggest supplier of nuclear power, was among the most vocal critics of the proposed rule and had threatened to sue the government if it did not create a pathway for hydrogen plants that are powered by existing nuclear plants to claim the credit. In response to the final rule, CEO and President Joe Dominguez said he was “pleased” that the Treasury changed course on this and that the final rule was “an important step in the right direction.”
The California governor’s office, which had criticized the proposed rule, was also swayed. “The final rules create the certainty needed for developers to invest in and build clean, renewable hydrogen production projects in states like California,” Dee Dee Myers, the director of the Governor’s Office of Business and Economic Development, said in a statement. The state has plans to build a $12.6 billion hub for producing and using clean hydrogen.
Part of the reason the Treasury needed to find a Goldilocks compromise that pleased as many stakeholders as possible was to protect the rule from future lawsuits and lobbying. But not everyone got what they wanted. For example, the energy developer NextEra, pushed the administration to get rid of the hourly matching provision, which though delayed remained essentially untouched. NextEra did not respond to a request for comment.
Companies that fall on the wrong side of the final rules may still decide to challenge them in court. The next Congress could also make revisions to the underlying tax code, or the incoming Trump administration could change the rules to perhaps make them more favorable to hydrogen made from fossil fuels. But all of this would take time — a rule change, for example, would trigger a whole new notice and comment process. Though the one thing I’ve heard over and over is that the industry wants certainty, which the final rule provides, it’s not yet clear whether that will outweigh any remaining gripes.
In the meantime, it's off to the races for the nascent clean hydrogen industry. Between having clarity on the tax credit, the Department of Energy’s $7 billion hydrogen hubs grant program, and additional federal grants to drive down the cost of clean hydrogen, companies now have numerous incentives to start building the hydrogen economy that has received much hype but has yet to prove its viability. The biggest question now is whether producers will find any buyers for their clean hydrogen.
Below is a more extensive accounting of where the Treasury landed in the final rules.
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On “deliverability,” or the requirement to procure clean energy from the same region, the rules are largely unchanged, although they do allow for some flexibility on regional boundaries.
As I explained above, the Treasury Department also kept the hourly matching requirement, but delayed it by two years until 2030 to give the market more time to set up systems to achieve it — a change Schneider said was “really disappointing” due to the potential emissions consequences. Until then, companies only have to match their operations with clean energy on an annual basis, which is a common practice today. The new deadline is strict, and those that start operations before 2030 will not be grandfathered in — that is, they’ll have to switch to hourly matching once that extended clock runs out. In spite of that, the final rules also ensure that producers won’t be penalized if they are not able to procure clean energy for every single hour their plant operates, an update several groups applauded.
On the requirement to procure clean power from newly built sources, also known as “incrementality,” the department made much bigger changes. It kept an overarching definition that “incremental” generators are those built within three years of the hydrogen plant coming into service, but added three major exceptions:
1. If the hydrogen facility buys power from an existing nuclear plant that’s at risk of retirement.
2. If the hydrogen facility is in a state that has both a robust clean electricity standard and a broad, binding, greenhouse gas cap, such as a cap and trade system. Currently, only California and Washington pass this test.
3. If the hydrogen facility buys power from an existing natural gas or coal plant that has added new carbon capture and storage capacity within three years of the hydrogen project coming into service.
The hydrogen tax credit is so lucrative that environmental groups and energy analysts were concerned it would drive companies like Constellation to start selling all their nuclear power to hydrogen plants instead of to regular energy consumers, which could drive up prices and induce more fossil fuel emissions.
The final rules try to limit this possibility by only allowing existing reactors that are at risk of retirement to qualify. But the definition of “at risk of retirement” is loose. It includes “merchant” nuclear power plants — those that sell at least half their power on the wholesale electricity market rather than to regulated utilities — as well as plants that have just a single reactor, which the rules note have lower or more uncertain revenue and higher operational costs. Looking at the Nuclear Energy Institute’s list of plants, merchant plants make up roughly 40% of the total. All of Constellation Energy’s plants are merchant plants.
There are additional tests — the plant has to have had average annual gross receipts of less than 4.375 cents per kilowatt hour for at least two calendar years between 2017 and 2021. It also has to obtain a minimum 10-year power purchase agreement with the hydrogen company. Beyond that, the reactors that meet this definition are limited to selling no more than 200 megawatts to hydrogen companies, which is roughly 20% for the average reactor.
Esposito, who has closely analyzed the potential emissions consequences of using existing nuclear plants to power hydrogen production, was not convinced by the safeguards. “I don't love the power price look back,” he told me, “because that's not especially indicative of the future — particularly this high load growth future that we're quickly approaching with data centers and everything. It’s very possible power prices could go up from that, and then all of a sudden, the nuclear plants would have been fine without hydrogen.”
As for the 200 megawatt cap, Esposito said it was better than nothing, but he feels “it's kind of an implicit admission that it's not really, truly clean” to produce hydrogen with the energy from these nuclear plants.
Schneider, on the other hand, said the safeguards for nuclear-powered hydrogen projects were adequate. While a lot of plants are theoretically eligible, not all of their electricity will be eligible, he said.
The rules assert that in states that meet the two criteria of a clean electricity standard and a binding cap on emissions, “any increased electricity load is highly unlikely to cause induced grid emissions.”
But in a paper published in February, Energy Innovation explored the potential consequences of this exemption in California. It found that hydrogen projects could have ripple effects on the cap and trade market, pushing up the state’s carbon price and triggering the release of extra carbon emission allowances. “In other words, the California program is more of a ‘soft’ cap than a binding one — the emissions budget ‘expands or contracts in response to price bounds set by the legislature and [California Air Resources Board],’” the report says.
Esposito thinks the exemption is a risk, but that it requires further analysis and he’s not sounding the alarm just yet. He said it could come down to other factors, including how economical hydrogen production in California ends up being.
Producers are also eligible for the tax credit if they make hydrogen the conventional way, by “reforming” natural gas, but capture the emissions released in the process. For this pathway, the Treasury had to clarify several accounting questions.
First, there’s the question of how producers should account for methane leaked into the atmosphere upstream of the hydrogen plant, such as from wells and pipelines. The proposal had suggested using a national average of 0.9%. But researchers found this would wildly underestimate the true warming impact of hydrogen produced from natural gas. It could also underestimate emissions from natural gas producers that have taken steps to reduce methane leakage. “We branded that as one size fits none,” Schneider told me.
The final rules create a path for producers to use more accurate, project-specific methane emissions rates in the future once the Department of Energy updates a lifecycle emissions tool that companies have to use called the “GREET” model. The Environmental Protection Agency recently passed new methane emissions laws that will enable it to collect better data on leakage, which will help the DOE update the model.
Schneider said that’s a step in the right direction, though it will depend on how quickly the GREET model is updated. His bigger concern is if the Trump administration weakens or eliminates the EPA’s methane emissions regulations.
The Treasury also opened up the potential for companies to produce hydrogen from alternative, cleaner sources of methane, like gas captured from wastewater, animal manure, and coal mines. (The original rule included a pathway for using gas captured from landfills.) In reality, hydrogen plants taking this approach are unlikely to use gas directly from these sources, but rather procure certificates that say they have “booked” this cleaner gas and can “claim” the environmental benefits.
Leading up to the final rule, some climate advocates were concerned that this system would give a boost to methane-based hydrogen production over electricity-based production, as it's cheaper to buy renewable natural gas certificates than it is to split water molecules. Existing markets for these credits also often overestimate their benefits — for example, California’s low carbon fuel system gives biogas captured from dairy farms a negative carbon intensity score, even though these projects don’t literally remove carbon from the atmosphere.
The Treasury tried to improve its emissions estimates for each of these alternative methane sources to make them more accurate, but negative carbon intensity scores are still possible.
The department did make one significant change here, however. It specified that companies can’t just buy a little bit of cleaner methane and then average it with regular fossil-based methane — each must be considered separately for determining tax credit eligibility. Jenkins, of Princeton, told me that without this rule, huge amounts of hydrogen made from regular natural gas could qualify.
Producers also won’t be able to take this “book and claim” approach until markets adapt to the Treasury’s reporting requirements, which isn’t expected until at least 2027.
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Current conditions: Yosemite could get 9 inches of snow between now and Sunday • Temperatures will rise to as high as 104 degrees Fahrenheit in Ashgabat, Turkmenistan, as Central and Southeast Asia continue to bake in a heatwave • Hail, tornadoes, and severe thunderstorms will pummel the U.S. Heartland into early next week.
It was a busy week of earnings calls for the clean energy sector, which, as a whole, saw investment dip by nearly $8 billion in the first three months of the year. Tariffs — especially as they impact the battery supply chain — as well as changes to federal policy under the new administration and electricity demand were the major themes of the week, my colleague Matthew Zeitlin wrote.
Like companies across many different sectors, inverter and battery maker Enphase, turbine manufacturer GE Vernova, Tesla, and the utility NextEra all mentioned the tariffs in their earnings reports and calls. Enphase, for one, is bracing for as much as 8% knocked off its gross margin by the third quarter, while Tesla’s highly-anticipated call managed expectations for the rest of the year, with the company citing the difficulty measuring “the impacts of global trade policy on the automotive and energy supply chains, our cost structure, and demand for durable goods and related services.” Meanwhile, on Thursday, Xcel Energy — which recently reached settlements for its role in the ignition of the most destructive wildfire in Colorado history and the largest wildfire in Texas history — reported missing first-quarter estimates and feeling the squeeze of high interest rates at a time of soaring, data-center-driven electricity demand.
The Department of Justice’s lawyers warned the Department of Transportation that its case against New York City’s congestion pricing program is likely a loser. We know this because someone mistakenly uploaded the DOJ’s memo into the court record for the Metropolitan Transportation Authority’s lawsuit challenging Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy’s actions. Whoops.
As my colleague Emily Pontecorvo reports, the leaked memo was dated before Duffy announced “he would put a moratorium on any new federal approvals for transit projects in Manhattan until the state shut down the tolling program.” But as Emily goes on to say, the memo “warns that continuing down this route could open up both the department and Duffy personally to further probes.” The New York Times adds that the DOT has since replaced the DOJ lawyers who authored the memo and plans to transfer the case to the civil division of the Justice Department in Washington.
More than 100 new cars and vehicles are expected to debut at the 2025 Shanghai Auto Show, which began on Wednesday and runs through next Friday. Of the approximately 1,300 total vehicles on display, 70% are new energy vehicles, according to Gu Chunting, the vice chairman of the Council for the Promotion of International Trade Shanghai, one of the event’s organizers.
The show is already off to an exciting start. Volkswagen is showcasing 50 new models, including three electrified concept vehicles specifically targeted at the Chinese market: the ID. Aura sedan, the ID. Evo SUV, and ID. Era three-row SUV, a hybrid with over 621 miles of range. BYD’s Denza line also premiered its Z, a luxury electric vehicle designed to compete with Tesla and Porsche. “Beauty is in the eye of the beholder, of course, but most people will find the Denza Z to be drop dead gorgeous,” Clean Technica raved.
That’s not all. The Faw Group, a Chinese state-owned car manufacturer, showed off a flying vehicle with a range of 124 miles, while fellow Chinese automaker Changan Automobile announced an autonomous flying car that reportedly already has government approval to transport passengers, per IoT World Today. France’s Le Monde was wowed by China’s innovations all around: “Gone are the days when the vast exhibition space had one hall dedicated to foreign brands and another for Chinese ones. Today, each Chinese group occupies a hall, showcasing domestic brands and leaving only some space for foreigners around the edges.”
Volkswagen
In a private ceremony Thursday night, President Trump signed an executive order to “unleash” deep-sea mining. The order — which directs the secretaries of Interior and Commerce to accelerate “the process of renewing and issuing seabed mineral exploration licenses and commercial recovery permits” for the U.S. Outer Continental Shelf and “areas beyond national jurisdiction”— is an attempt to offset China’s dominance of the critical minerals supply chain. Deep-sea mining operations harvest “nodules” that take millions of years to form and contain minerals like nickel, copper, cobalt, and manganese necessary for lithium-ion batteries for electric vehicles, among other applications. “For too long, we’ve been over reliant on foreign sources, and today this historic announcement marks a big step in the right direction to onshore these resources that are critical to national homeland security,” a senior administration official told reporters on Thursday, as reported by CNN.
Deep-sea mining is controversial due to how little we know about the ocean’s abyss, including the potential impact of large-scale mining operations on marine biodiversity and carbon sequestration. The United States has largely abstained from the deliberations of the United Nations’ International Seabed Authority, which determines whether and how to mine the seabed for critical minerals. The industrial mining of international waters, as cued up by Trump’s executive order, is opposed by “nearly all other nations,” The New York Times writes, and is “likely to provoke an outcry from America’s rivals and allies alike.”
It has already been a tragic year for wildfires, with more than 57,000 acres of Los Angeles and the surrounding hillsides burned in January. Now, AccuWeather is predicting that fires in the U.S. could “rapidly escalate” and burn up to 9 million acres total this year, well above the historic average of 7 million acres and close to the 8.9 million acres that burned in 2024.
Specifically, AccuWeather predicts an extreme fire season in the Northwest, northern Rockies, Southwest, and South Central states, particularly as late summer and fall approach. “There was plenty of rain and snow across Northern California this winter. All of that moisture has supported a lot of lush vegetation growth this spring,” AccuWeather’s lead long-range expert, Paul Pastelok, said. “That grass and brush will dry out and become potential fuel for wildfires this fall,” when any “trigger mechanism … could cause big wildfire problems.”
AccuWeather
Slate Auto, a three-year-old Jeff Bezos-backed startup, has announced an EV truck that will cost less than $20,000 after the federal tax credit and before customization. “It’s the Burger King of trucks,” writes Car and Driver, because “it’s affordable” and “lets customers ‘have it their way’ with a lengthy accessory list, including one that turns this pickup into an SUV.”
Three weeks after “Liberation Day,” Matador Resources says it’s adjusting its ambitions for the year.
America’s oil and gas industry is beginning to pull back on investments in the face of tariffs and immense oil price instability — or at least one oil and gas company is.
While oil and gas executives have been grousing about low prices and inconsistent policy to any reporter (or Federal Reserve Bank) who will listen, there’s been little actual data about how the industry is thinking about what investments to make or not make. That changed on Wednesday when the shale driller Matador Resources reported its first quarter earnings. The company said that it would drop one rig from its fleet of nine, cutting $100 million of capital costs.
“In response to recent commodity price volatility, Matador has decided to adjust its drilling and completion activity for 2025 to provide for more optionality,” the company said in its earnings release.
In February, Matador was projecting that its capital expenditures in 2025 would be between $1.4 and $1.65 billion.This week, it lowered that outlook to $1.3 to $1.55 billion. “We’re very open to and want to have reason to grow again,” Matador’s chief executive Joseph Foran said on the company’s earnings call Thursday. “This is primarily a timing matter. Is this a temporary thing on oil prices? Or is this a new world we live in?”
Mizuho Securities analyst William Janela wrote in a note to clients Thursday morning that, as the first oil exploration and production company to report its earnings this go-round, Matador would be “somewhat of a litmus test for the sector: we don't believe the market was expecting E&Ps to announce activity reductions this soon, but MTDR's update could signal more cuts to come from peers over the next few weeks.”
West Texas Intermediate crude oil prices are currently sitting at just below $63, up from around $60 in the wake of President Donald Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariff announcements. While the current price is off its lows, it’s still well short of the almost $84 a barrel crude prices were at around this time last year.
The price decline could be attributable to any number of factors — macroeconomic uncertainty due to the trade war, production hikes by foreign producers — but whatever the cause, it has made an awkward situation for the Trump administration’s energy strategy.
The iShares U.S. Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF, which tracks the American oil and gas exploration industry, is down 9% for the year and more than 13% since “Liberation Day,” while the rest of the market has almost recovered as the Trump administration has indicated it may ease up on some of his more drastic tariff policies.
If other drillers follow Matador’s investment slowdown, it could imperil Trump’s broader energy policy goals.
Trump has both encouraged other countries to produce more oil (and bragged about lower oil prices) while also exhorting American drillers to “drill, baby, drill,”with enticements ranging from kneecapping emissions standards to a reduced regulatory burden.
As Heatmap has written, these goals sit in conflict with each other. Energy executives told the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas that they need oil prices ranging from $61 to $70 a barrelin order to profitably drill new wells. If prices fall further, “what would happen is ‘Delay, baby, delay,’”Wood Mackenzie analyst Fraser McKay wrote Wednesday. “We now expect global upstream development spend to fall year-on-year for the first time since 2020.”
A $65 per barrel price “dents” margins for drillers, meaning “growth capex and discretionary spend will be delayed,” McKay wrote.
Matador also announced that it had authorized $400 million worth of buybacks, and itsstock price rose some 4% on the earnings announcement, indicating that Wall Street will reward drillers who pull back on drilling and ramp up shareholder payouts.
“We’ve got the tools in the toolbox, including the share repurchase, to make Matador more value quarter by quarter,” Foran said. Rather than “blindly” pouring capital into growth, Matador would aim for a “measured pace,” he explained. “And if you mean what you say about a measured pace, that means when prices get a little lower, you take a few more moments to think about what you’re doing and don’t rush into things.”
At San Francisco Climate Week, everything is normal — until it very much isn’t.
San Francisco Climate Week started off on Monday with an existential bang. Addressing an invite-only crowd at the Exploratorium, a science museum on the city’s waterfront, former vice president and long-time climate advocate Al Gore put the significance and threat of this political moment — and what it means for the climate — in the most extreme terms possible. That is to say, he compared the current administration under President Trump to Nazi Germany.
“I understand very well why it is wrong to compare Adolf Hitler’s Third Reich to any other movement. It was uniquely evil,” Gore conceded before going on: “But there are important lessons from the history of that emergent evil.” Just as German philosophers in the aftermath of World War II found that the Nazis “attacked the very heart of the distinction between true and false,” Gore said, so too is Trump’s administration “trying to create their own preferred version of reality,” in which we can keep burning fossil fuels forever. With his voice rising and gestures increasing in vigor, Gore ended his speech on a crescendo. “We have to protect our future. And if you doubt for one moment, ever, that we as human beings have that capacity to muster sufficient political will to solve this crisis, just remember that political will is itself a renewable resource.”
The crowd went wild. Former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi took the stage and reminded the crowd that Gore has been telling us this for decades — maybe it’s time we listen. But I missed all that. Because just a few miles away, things were getting a little more in the weeds at the somewhat less exclusive venture capital-led panel entitled “The Economics of Climate Tech: Building Resilient, Scalable, and Sustainable Startups.” Here, I learned about a new iron-sodium battery chemistry and innovations in transformers for data centers, microgrids, and EV charging infrastructure.
I heard Tom Chi, founding partner of At One Ventures, utter sentences such as “parity dies because of capex inertia,” referring to the need to make clean tech not only equivalent to but cheaper than fossil-fuels on a unit economics basis. Such is the duality of climate week during the Trump administration — occasionally lofty in both its alarm and its excitement, but more often than not simply business-as-usual, interrupted by bouts of heady doom or motivational proclamations.
Some panels, like the one I moderated on the future of weather forecasting using artificial intelligence, made it a full hour without discussing Trump, tariffs, or tax credits at all. So far, that’s held true for a number of talks on how AI can be a boon to climate tech. It makes sense — the administration is excited about AI, and there’s really no indication that Trump has given any thought to either the positive or negative climate externalities of it.
But rapid data center buildout and the attendant renewables boom that it may (or may not) bring will certainly be influenced by the administration’s fluctuating policies, an issue that was briefly discussed during another panel: “AI x Energy: Gridlocked or Grid Unlocked?” Here, representatives from Softbank, Pacific Gas & Electric, and the data center builder and operator Switch touched on how market uncertainty is making it difficult to procure energy for data centers — and to figure out the cost of building a data center, period.
“There is a lot of refiguring and rereading contracts and looking at the potential exposure to things like the escalation in the cost of steel for construction projects,” Skyler Holloway of Switch said. Pinning down a price on the energy required to power data centers is also a bottleneck, Gillian Clegg, vice president of energy policy and procurement at PG&E explained. “For projects that want to connect between now and 2030, any kind of uncertainty or delay means that the generation doesn't get to the market,” Clegg said. “Maybe the load gets there first, and you have an out of balance situation.”
Everyone acknowledges that uncertainty is bad for business, and that delays related to funding, contracts, and construction can kill otherwise viable companies. But unsurprisingly, nobody here has admitted that said uncertainty might put them out of business, or even deeply in the red.Every panel I attend, I find myself wondering whether a founder or investor is finally going to raise their voice, à la Al Gore, and tell the audience that while their company’s business model is well and good, the Trump administration’s illogical antipathy towards green-coded tech and ill-conceived trade war is throwing the underlying logic — sound as it may have been just a year ago — into disarray.
None of the seven energy, food, and agricultural startups that presented at the nonprofit climate investor Elemental Impact’s main show, for instance, discussed the impacts of the administration’s policies on their businesses. Rather, they maintained a consistently upbeat tone as they described the promise of their concepts — which ranged from harnessing ocean energy to developing plant-based fertilizers to using robotics for electronics recycling — and the momentum building behind them. Nuclear and geothermal companies, seemingly poised to be the clean tech winners of Chris Wright’s Department of Energy, have been especially optimistic this week.
But really, what else can climate tech companies and investors be expected to do right now besides, well, rise and grind? It’s not like anybody has answers as to what’s coming down the policy pike. In a number of more casual conversations this week, a common sentiment I heard was that it’s not necessarily a bad time to be an early-stage startup — keep your head down, focus on research and prototyping, and reassess the political environment when you’re ready to build a pilot or demonstration plant. As for later-stage companies and venture capital firms, they’re likely working to ensure that their business models and portfolios really aren’t dependent on government subsidies, grants, or policies — as they keep assuring me is the case.
Even that might not be enough these days though. Chi said he’s always tailored his investments with At One Ventures towards companies that are viable based on unit economics alone, no subsidies and no green premium. So he wasn’t initially worried about his portfolio when Trump was elected. “None of our business models were invalidated by the election,” he said. “The only way that we could be in trouble is if they mess it up so bad that it ruins all of business, not just climate …”
Oops.
If there’s one dictum that I would expect to hold, though, it’s that the startups that make it through this period will likely be around for the long haul. I’ve been hearing that sentiment since the election, and Mona ElNagger, a partner at Valo Ventures, echoed it once again this week. “Microsoft and Apple were founded in the mid 1970s, which was a time of severe recession and stagflation. Amazon started at the tail end of a big recession in the early 1990s,” ElNagger reminded the audience at the Economics of Climate Tech panel, which she moderated. “Companies that survive and actually thrive in such periods share a common thread of resilience.”
As that panel wrapped up, things got existential once more as Chi’s talk moved from describing his investment thesis to the moment at large. “This time period in history is going to bring us tragedy after tragedy, and it’s really that moment that we’re going to understand the deep underlying structure of half of the world that we’ve built, and also the character of who we are,” Chi told the audience. It was unclear whether we were even talking about climate tech anymore. Chi continued, “It’s in that time period that we are going to step up and become whatever we are meant to be or not at all.”
The crowd sat there, a little stunned. Were we, in this very moment, becoming who we were meant to be? I took a bite of my free sushi as the networking and hobnobbing began.