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AM Briefing

Petrochemical Prices Are Soaring

On ethanol’s win, India’s ‘modest’ renewables target, and ‘transformative’ NRC changes

A Dow chemical plant.
Heatmap Illustration/Getty Images

Current conditions: The first forecasts for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season project up to four major storms and up to 16 named storms, roughly the same as last year • Florida is facing its driest stretch in years, with 72% of the state undergoing the two worst levels of drought possible right at the start of the growing season • Ajman, the United Arab Emirates’ fifth most-populous city, is enduring record rainfall as storms are expected to continue through the end of the week.

THE TOP FIVE

1. Petrochemical prices are soaring

Anyone who watched television in America in the late 1990s should remember the Got Milk-esque slogan from the industry’s landmark advertising campaign: “Plastics make it possible.” Well, it turns out safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz makes plastics possible. On Tuesday, chemical maker Dow told customers that it plans to double a previously announced price hike on plastic resins as the war in Iran chokes off the supply of raw materials. The move, first reported in The Wall Street Journal, comes a week after Dow CEO James Fitterling told investors at a conference that the company planned to raise the price of polyethylene by $0.15 per pound in April, after hiking the price by $0.10 this month. Now Dow plans to increase the price by $0.30 per pound. Rival producers such as LyondellBasell and Exxon Mobil are imposing their own price hikes. Used to make shopping bags, plastic bottles, and other goods, polyethylene is typically made with natural gas in the U.S., where the fuel is abundant, and with naphtha, a hydrocarbon derived from crude oil, elsewhere in the world. The prices of both polyethylene and naphtha “have gone vertical since the start of the war,” Bloomberg broadcaster Joe Weisenthal noted in a post on X after covering the soaring costs on his latest “Odd Lots” podcast.

On a positive note, new analysis from the consultancy BloombergNEF found that “a large share” of the Persian Gulf’s oil production “could return relatively quickly, should the Strait of Hormuz reopen and midstream operations normalize.” Still, “a full recovery will be uneven and field-specific.” Fields could restart and ramp up production in at most seven weeks. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, meanwhile, outlined Democrats’ vision to take on higher prices with a general framework that calls for expanding renewables, cutting red tape on energy infrastructure, and upgrading the grid with more transmission capacity. Renewables are providing a boost elsewhere: The British renewables giant Octopus Energy told the BBC it’s seen a 50% rise in solar panel sales since the start of the Iran War.

2. EPA gives the ethanol industry a win

The Environmental Protection Agency handed an easy victory to the biofuels industry Wednesday, approving the sale of higher-ethanol blends of gasoline in a bid to bring down surging prices at the pump by augmenting petroleum with corn. The higher blend is typically banned in warm weather because it can worsen smog. But waivers for what’s called E15 fuel have “become commonplace in recent years, and both Republicans and Democrats have called for it to become year-round and permanent to lower prices at the pump,” the Associated Press reported. It’s already allowed in some states: Iowa (the epicenter of the ethanol industry), Illinois, Minnesota, Nebraska, Missouri, Wisconsin, and most of South Dakota. EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin announced the waiver at the CERAWeek energy conference in Houston, where he held a press conference on the issue but then took no questions from journalists, according to Heatmap’s Robinson Meyer, who is on the ground at the confab.

The U.S. Postal Service, meanwhile, plans to impose its first-ever surcharge on packages to cover the rising cost of fuel and transportation. The 8% fee is set to come into effect on April 26, though the current plan would phase out the surcharge on January 17, 2027, according to The Wall Street Journal. Private parcel carriers, including FedEx and United Parcel Service, have imposed fuel surcharges for years, but this is the first time the federal agency is doing so in a bid to stabilize its finances.

3. India just set new, rather weak clean-energy goals

India’s electricity demand is soaring as the world’s most populous nation inks trade deals left and right with the world’s major economies, which are looking to shift their supply chains away from China. Yet the heavily coal-dependent nation set what the Financial Times called just “modest goals for renewable energy and emissions cuts for the next decade.” On Wednesday, Prime Minister Narendra Modi unveiled the country’s latest clean energy targets, promising a “people-centric approach” to “accelerating clean energy and green growth.” But in the long-delayed document, which all countries were due to submit to the United Nations a year ago, the Modi government pledged to reduce emissions relative to its gross domestic project by 47% by 2035, compared to 2005 levels. The blueprint also promised renewables would make up 60% of India’s cumulative installed electricity capacity by 2035, well below the country’s Central Electricity Authority estimates that by 2036 nearly 70% of India’s power would come from non-fossil fuel sources.

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4. Rio Tinto aims to open a big copper mine in Arizona in the mid 2030s

Headframes on the site of Resolution Copper’s proposed underground copper mine. Jim West/UCG/Universal Images Group via Getty Images

I have written repeatedly in this newsletter that the metals industry is more concerned about the West’s capacity to refine ore into useful materials than it is about the capacity to extract more minerals from mines. Here’s the umpteenth example: Speaking to a Reuters reporter at CERAWeek, the mining giant Rio Tinto said it plans to open its Resolution Copper facility in Arizona in the mid-2030s. But a senior executive told the newswire the company may need to export some of its copper concentrate due to the challenging economics of smelting in the U.S. When Heatmap’s Jeva Lange visited the town that would host the mine, experts told her “much if not all of the raw copper extracted at Oak Flat to China for processing.”

5. U.S. nuclear regulators test a new environmental review

Fermi America’s Project Matador, the sweeping data center campus in Texas designed to be powered by large nuclear reactors and gas plants, is officially the guinea pig for the Nuclear Regulatory Commission’s new pilot program to modernize how the agency conducts environmental reviews. Under the new approach, the NRC allows applicants to develop a draft Environmental Impact Statement. “By rethinking the traditional review process, the program is expected to reduce in-house NRC review time by approximately 50% and deliver resource savings of about 30%, all while maintaining compliance with environmental requirements,” the NRC said. Fermi America is the first private company to participate in the pilot, which World Nuclear News called “transformative.”

TerraPower, the Bill Gates-backed next-generation reactor development, announced a new engineering platform designed with the consultancy SoftServe and powered by Nvidia’s Omniverse artificial intelligence-based modeling platform. The software will “rapidly accelerate the siting and design” of TerraPower’s liquid sodium-cooled Natrium reactor “from years to months,” the company said in a press release. “To meet growing power demand, advanced nuclear plants must move to construction faster, with higher design precision and disciplined execution,” Eric Williams, TerraPower’s chief operating officer, said in a statement. “With our initial Natrium plant design complete, we are able to leverage our partnerships with Nvidia and SoftServe to deploy an AI-powered digital twin to enhance our engineering team’s efforts and greatly improve our speed to market capabilities.”

THE KICKER

If you thought a war that cuts off global fertilizer supplies right at the start of growing season was concerning, just wait until you find out about the plague of locusts descending on five of Russia’s farming regions. The Kremlin’s agricultural officials say data indicates that locust populations have survived the winter in significant numbers, threatening “widespread crop losses” in the Chechnya, Khakassia, Dagestan, as well as the Volgograd and Saratov regions, according to Fertilizer Daily.

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Politics

The Senate’s Big Bipartisan Permitting Deal, Explained

The Bipartisan American Affordability and Jobs Act would remove longstanding roadblocks to expanding the power grid and developing new energy infrastructure. Here’s our guide.

The Capitol and power lines.
Heatmap Illustration/Getty Images

It’s taken two presidential administrations, four years, and who-knows-how-many proposals that never saw the light of the Senate floor. But a long-awaited bipartisan deal to streamline the country’s permitting system is here.

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AM Briefing

A Quid for the Grid

On space solar, EU methane rules, and solar tariffs

Andy Burnham.
Heatmap Illustration/Getty Images

Current conditions: For the first time since 1914, the Atlantic hurricane season may pass without any major hurricanes, per an AccuWeather forecast • From Phoenix to Dallas, flood watches are in effect as the remnants of Hurricane Polo stretch inland from the Pacific through the Southwest • Surigae, now upgraded to a “severe” tropical storm, is set to slam into Japan’s Izu Islands, a partially populated archipelago in the same municipality as Tokyo.


THE TOP FIVE

1. Trump taps the Strategic Petroleum Reserve as diesel nears $7 a gallon

The Department of Energy has ordered the release of 40 million barrels of oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve as diesel surpasses $6.50 per gallon and Texas proclaims a statewide “disaster” over soaring prices. The move, which Secretary of Energy Chris Wright said would “stabilize the market,” comes as the Trump administration weighs whether to temporarily ban exports of diesel, a radical step that might only slightly lower American prices while sending Europe’s fuel costs skyrocketing, as the chief executive of the continent’s No. 2 oil company cautioned in a Bloomberg interview this week. The oil is expected to be a loan from the stockpile that would, Wright said, ultimately save Americans more than $3 billion. The transaction follows the same approach the Trump administration has taken since agreeing to distribute 172 million barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve back in March, when the war with Iran began. Had the administration instead sold the barrels through an emergency drawdown instead of a trade, as it did previously, and simultaneously structured the deal to allow it to buy back oil at the lower prices the futures market is trading at presently, the Energy Department could have significantly increased its profits. That’s the finding of a policy memo from the think tank Employ America that I told you about a few weeks ago. The profit could, in turn, be used to invest in America’s fuel stockpile, clearing some of the $230 million backlog of physical repairs needed on the infrastructure that stores the crude. “The choice to deliver more barrels is fraught, but with that decision made, the administration missed an opportunity to set up the SPR for long-term success,” Arnab Datta, Employ America’s managing director of policy implementation, told me in a text message last night. “I hope they consider creative options to do so moving forward.”

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Climate Tech

The Startup Raising $17 Million for Super-Thin, Wall-Mounted Batteries

Novele is aiming to smooth out power consumption for commercial buildings, saving tenants money and easing grid strain.

Novele batteries.
Heatmap Illustration/Novele, Getty Images

Electricity is more expensive in times of peak demand — that’s simply a universal truth. But for many commercial building owners and tenants, their most energy-intensive minutes of the month can have an especially outsized impact on their electricity bill. That’s because of the “demand charge,” a fee based on a building’s single highest burst of power consumption, which can make up over 50% of a customer’s monthly bill. Likewise, shrinking those bursts would not only ease strain on the grid, but could also dramatically lower commercial users’ costs.

Or at least that’s Novele’s pitch. The startup, which makes 2-inch-thick, fire-safe lithium-ion batteries that mount on the interior walls of commercial spaces such as offices, hospitals, and big box retailers, announced Wednesday that it raised an oversubscribed $17 million Series A led by impact-focused investor Boisei Labs. The funding will help the company scale its AI-powered battery system, which networks batteries placed throughout a building and uses software to predict impending spikes in power demand. Just before the peak hits, the system can automatically switch the building from grid power to battery power, helping the customer avoid those costly demand charges.

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