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Justice Brett Kavanaugh’s decision in the case of Seven County Infrastructure Coalition v. Eagle County, Colorado enlists the nation’s highest court in the campaign to reform federal environmental enforcement.

A new chapter opened for one of the country’s most important environmental laws this week.
On Thursday, the Supreme Court transformed the National Environmental Policy Act, or NEPA, an environmental permitting law that affects virtually every decision that the federal government makes. The quasi-unanimous ruling limits the law’s scope and cuts off future avenues for challenging energy and infrastructure projects under the law.
It could reshape the scale of legal challenges that projects could face in the future, giving the Trump administration — and any successive administration — greater leeway to approve energy projects.
Under NEPA, federal agencies must study the environmental impacts of their decisions before they make them. The strictest studies can run into the hundreds of pages, and they can take years to complete.
But in what was essentially an 8-0 decision, the Court ruled that federal agencies almost never need to analyze the second-order environmental effects of their decisions. In other words, an agency need only study the environmental impact of a project itself — be it a pipeline, a solar farm, or, in the case at issue, a railroad — and not its metaphorically downstream consequences. That remains the case even if a given project might indirectly make it much easier to do something with a big environmental footprint, such as drilling for oil or natural gas.
That is the clearest effect of the ruling. But Justice Brett Kavanaugh, writing for the court’s conservative majority, went much further than that summary alone suggests. In a broad and forceful ruling, he told lower courts that they should stop nitpicking the environmental studies that federal agencies must publish under NEPA to justify their own decision-making. Courts should, instead, defer to federal agencies as much as is reasonable when reviewing a NEPA study. “The goal of the law,” he writes, “is to inform agency decision-making, not to paralyze it.” (Justice Neil Gorsuch recused himself from the case because of his connection to an oil magnate who could have benefited from the ruling.)
That suggests a significant change is coming to how the court system interprets NEPA, a law that is little known to the general public but that plays a defining role in how federal agencies make decisions or approve infrastructure projects. NEPA creates a procedural requirement that federal agencies study the environmental impact of any “major decision,” but that category is so broad that it affects virtually everything the federal government does — spend money, write a new regulation, or approve a new project on federal land. The law and the yearslong lawsuits that it spawns have been blamed for delays in building solar farms and transmission lines, but also oil refineries and gas pipelines.
Kavanaugh’s ruling is “pretty striking for just how strident it is, and how assertively it tries to shut the door on further NEPA litigation,” Nicholas Bagley, a University of Michigan law professor who studies the permitting system, told me. Kavanaugh’s message to lower courts is, in essence, “We keep telling you to knock it off. You keep not listening. So knock it the fuck off,” Bagley said.
At the very least, the ruling suggests that a new phase in the effort to reform the country’s permitting laws has arrived. Now that movement has, in essence, been blessed by the Supreme Court.
The case in question — Seven County Infrastructure Coalition v. Eagle County, Colorado — concerns an 88-mile railroad proposed to connect the Uinta Basin in eastern Utah to the national freight rail network. In 2021, the Surface Transportation Board, a federal agency that regulates railroads, approved the project after completing a roughly 3,600-page study of the railroad’s potential environmental impact.
Almost immediately, environmental groups argued that the board’s study did not go far enough. The ground beneath the Uinta Basin is rich in a waxy and particularly carbon-intensive crude oil; right now, very little of that oil is extracted because the only way to get it out is by truck, along windy mountain roads. The railroad, if built, would allow for much larger volumes of crude to be transported out of the basin and sent to Gulf Coast refineries. Building the railroad, in other words, would indirectly increase local oil extraction, and thereby raise global greenhouse gas emissions.
The board argued that its NEPA study did not need to consider these downstream effects because the board itself does not regulate oil extraction — that is, it regulates the building of railroads, not what gets moved on them.
The eight justices agreed that the board was right: It didn’t have to consider the effects of second-order oil drilling when it approved the railroad. (The railroad remains on hold for other reasons, Sambhav Sankar, a senior vice president at Earthjustice, told me.) But by going further in his ruling, Kavanaugh entered into a running debate about the role of NEPA and other permitting laws in the American economy.
NEPA was never meant to play the commanding role that it does today, Kavanaugh writes. When it was first signed into law in 1970, NEPA was meant to act as a “purely procedural” check on federal decision-making. Agencies were supposed to conduct environmental studies, make their decisions, then move on. But in a famous 1971 ruling concerning a proposed nuclear power plant in Maryland, Judge Skelly Wright of the D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals transformed the law. He found that agencies had to carry out NEPA’s procedural requirements “to the fullest extent possible,” and crucially that courts could reject agencies’ analysis for lack of completeness.
Over the years, as hundreds of cases following Wright’s have added up, NEPA has turned into a “fearsome project killer,” Bagley said. Agencies spend decades of person-power and hundreds of thousands of dollars to prepare fastidious environmental reviews of their decisions. Any new infrastructure project or new policy change — even New York City’s congestion charge — requires some form of NEPA study.
Many conservatives have long opposed the modern NEPA process. But in recent years, some liberals have joined them, arguing that the law primarily slows down clean energy infrastructure and encourages NIMBYism. In practice, they say, NEPA acts as more of hindrance to the clean economy than the old fossil fuel economy: Because of a 2005 law, most oil and gas drilling has been exempt from the NEPA process, while wind farms, solar plants, and other forms of zero-carbon energy infrastructure still have to face it. Environmental groups rebut that the law is a useful tool to slow down fossil fuel pipelines, which do not generally get a NEPA exemption.
Data supports the idea that NEPA holds back clean energy projects, but that is partly because it holds back so many kinds of projects. The R Street Institute, a center-right think tank, has found that 42% of projects stalled by NEPA involved green infrastructure or conservation. Another analysis from the Center for Growth and Opportunity at Utah State University found that it takes more than two years on average for federal agencies to complete environmental reviews of solar and wind projects. Reviews for new hydroelectric or nuclear power plants take even longer.
Kavanaugh, in essence, rejects all of this. NEPA was never supposed to block or hinder large-scale energy or infrastructure projects, he writes; it was meant to “inform agency decision-making, not to paralyze it.”
“A 1970 legislative acorn has grown over the years into a judicial oak that has hindered infrastructure development ‘under the guise’ of just a little more process,” he says. When federal agencies write environmental studies under NEPA, courts should broadly defer to the decisions that they make. And even if an agency gets something wrong in its study or omits something important, that does not mean the entire study — and the decision that it justifies — should be thrown out. (There’s some irony to Kavanaugh’s call for deference to agencies here, given that the Supreme Court rejected the idea that agency regulations deserve deference last year.)
“What’s notable for me is that they didn’t just rule on the case,” Sankar, the Earthjustice lawyer told me. (Earthjustice participated in the case.) “They decided to take a broad swipe at NEPA itself, really unnecessarily.”
Alexander Mechanick, a senior policy analyst at the Niskanen Center and former White House regulatory official, agreed with Sankar about the scope of the ruling. The court’s decision “does communicate over and over again, with a heavy hand, a real desire to get lower courts out of the business of fly specking the environmental impact assessments,” he told me.
It’s this forthrightness that seems to announce a new era of NEPA jurisprudence — one where the courts will accept a level of environmental review that they may have once rejected. In a way, Kavanaugh’s ruling is a fitting sequel to Wright’s 1971 decision in that both set the tone and capture the overarching environmental concerns of their respective eras, Bagley said.
Half a century ago, Judge Wright wanted to make sure that the American public could slow the wave of infrastructure that threatened to overwhelm the country’s landscape. NEPA represented “the commitment of the government to control, at long last, the destructive engine of material ‘progress,’” he wrote, asserting that judges must make sure the law’s goals are not “lost or misdirected in the vast hallways of the federal bureaucracy.”
Now, Kavanaugh seems to fear that progress itself has been held up. He writes that the modern NEPA process, with its cycles of “speculation and consultation and estimation and litigation,” has slowed down infrastructure projects and driven up their cost. He can sound more like an op-ed writer than a legal scholar as he lays out the law’s consequences in the ruling:
Fewer projects make it to the finish line. Indeed, fewer projects make it to the starting line. Those that survive often end up costing much more than is anticipated or necessary, both for the agency preparing the EIS and for the builder of the project. And that in turn means fewer and more expensive railroads, airports, wind turbines, transmission lines, dams, housing developments, highways, bridges, subways, stadiums, arenas, data centers, and the like. And that also means fewer jobs, as new projects become difficult to finance and build in a timely fashion.
In this declaration, Kavanaugh seems to put himself on the side of a growing and tenuously bipartisan movement to reform NEPA. A 2023 debt ceiling bill, signed by President Biden, included modest reforms to the NEPA process, imposing page limits and deadlines on the strictest forms of environmental studies. A more sweeping bipartisan effort to change the law failed last year. Now, House Republicans are taking their own crack at revising NEPA, creating an optional and more expensive permitting “fast track” for developers in the reconciliation bill.
Sankar, whose organization has championed NEPA, argues that the ruling’s practical upshot will be to allow the Trump administration greater leeway to build fossil fuel infrastructure. Kavanaugh’s ruling exhibits “a shocking disregard for the realpolitik of what's going on with this administration in particular,” he said.
“As we’ve been saying all along, NEPA gets demonized as the problem,” Sankar said. With the law’s role reduced, “I think people will see that there are a lot of other things that are the problem here, and taking federal agency expertise out of the equation is not going to hurry things up.” He added that state and local governments often rely on federal NEPA reports for their own analyses, and now those reviews may be less trustworthy.
Bagley, who has generally supported permitting reform efforts, agreed that NEPA is just one of several laws holding back clean energy projects nationwide. But it is an important one, he said, and reducing its scope will likely allow more projects to happen. He added that by changing it, advocates will learn of additional bottlenecks that are holding back construction — including laws that nobody has noticed yet because they were previously less important than NEPA. Advocates can also now focus their attention on state and local barriers to building.
“If you want to look at the permitting burdens across the United States, probably 80% to 90% of them are state and local. This [ruling] isn’t going to inaugurate a new era of American dynamism,” Bagley said. “It’s a small step in the right direction.”
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On Greenland jockeying, Brazilian rare earth, and atomic British sea power
Current conditions: A geomagnetic storm triggered by what’s known as a coronal mass ejection in space could hit severe levels and disrupt critical infrastructure from southern Alabama to northern California • After weekend storms blanketed the Northeast in snow, Arctic air is pushing more snow into the region by midweek • Extreme heat in South America is fueling wildfires that have already killed 19 people in Chile.
Over the weekend, President Donald Trump once again ratcheted up pressure on Denmark and the European Union to consider his bid to seize Greenland. In a post on Truth Social, the president announced punitive 10% tariffs on Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, the United Kingdom, the Netherlands, and Finland starting on February 1, with plans to raise the levies to 25% by June. “We have subsidized Denmark, and all of the Countries of the European Union, and others, for many years by not charging them Tariffs, or any other forms of remuneration,” he wrote. “Now, after Centuries, it is time for Denmark to give back — World Peace is at stake!” In response, the EU has threatened to deploy its economic “big bazooka.” Known formally as the anti-coercion instrument, the policy came into force in 2023 to counter China’s attacks on Lithuania, and involves the imposition of sweeping trade sanctions, ousting the aggressor nation’s companies from the world’s second-largest market, and ending intellectual property protections. Economists told the Financial Times that a trade war over Greenland would risk sparking the worst financial crisis since the Great Recession.

Electricity generation is set to grow 1.1% this year and 2.6% in 2027, according to the latest short-term energy outlook report from the federal Energy Information Administration. Despite the Trump administration’s attacks on the industry, solar power will provide the bulk of that growth. The U.S. is set to add 70 gigawatts of new utility-scale solar in 2026 and 2027, representing a 49% increase in operating solar capacity compared to the end of 2025. While natural gas, coal, and nuclear combined accounted for 75% of all generation last year, the trio’s share of power output in 2027 is on track to slip to 72%. Solar power and wind energy, meanwhile, are set to rise from about 18% in 2025 to 21% in 2027.
Still, the solar industry is struggling to fend off the Trump administration’s efforts to curb deployments of what its top energy officials call unreliable forms of renewable power. As Heatmap’s Jael Holzman wrote last month, the leading solar trade association is pleading with Congress for help fending off a “near complete moratorium on permitting.”
Everybody wants to invest in critical minerals — including the Western Hemisphere’s second center of power. Brazil is angling for a trade deal with the U.S. to mine what the Financial Times called its “abundant but largely untapped rare earth deposits.” With tensions thawing between Trump and the government of leftwinger Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, officials in the Brazilian administration see a chance to broker an agreement on the metals Washington needs for modern energy and defense technologies. “There’s nothing but opportunity here,” one official told the newspaper. “Brazil’s government is open to a deal on critical minerals.”
Northwest of Brazil, in Bolivia, the new center-right government is stepping up efforts to court foreign investors to develop its lithium resources. The country’s famous salt flats comprise the world’s largest known reserve of the key battery metal. But the leftist administration that ruled the Andean nation for much of the past two decades made little progress toward exploiting the resource under state-owned companies. The new pro-Washington government that took power after the October election has vowed to bring in the private sector. In what Energy Minister Mauricio Medinaceli last week called the government’s “first message to investors,” the administration vowed to honor all existing deals with Chinese and Russian companies, according to Mining.com.
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Last month, I told you about how swapping bunker fuel-burning engines for nuclear propulsion units in container ships could shave $68 million off annual shipping costs. That’s got real appeal to the British. Five industrial giants in the United Kingdom — Rolls-Royce, Babcock International Group, Global Nuclear Security Partners, Stephenson Harwood, and NorthStandard — have formed a new group called the Maritime Nuclear Consortium to boost British efforts to commercialize nuclear-powered cargo ships. “Without coordinated U.K. action, the chance to define the rules, create high-skilled jobs and anchor a global supply chain could be lost to faster competitors,” Lloyd's Register, a professional services company in London that provides maritime certifications, said in a statement to World Nuclear News. “Acting now would give the U.K. first-mover advantage, and ensure those standards, jobs and supply chains are built here.”
On the more standard atomic power front, the U.S. has officially inked its nuclear partnership deal with Slovakia, which I wrote about last week.
Sunrun has come out against the nascent effort to harvest the minerals needed for panels and batteries from metal-rich nodules in the pristine depths of the ocean. Last week, America’s largest residential solar and storage company signed onto a petition calling for a moratorium on deep-sea mining. The San Francisco-based giant joins Google, Apple, Samsung, BMW, Volvo, Salesforce, and nearly 70 other corporations in calling for a halt to the ongoing push at a little-known United Nations maritime regulator to establish permitting rules for mining in international waters. As Heatmap’s Jeva Lange has written, there are real questions about whether the potential damage to one of the few ecosystems on Earth left untouched by human development is really worth it. Trump has vowed to go it alone on deep-sea mining if global regulators can’t come to agreement, as I wrote last year. But it’s unclear how quickly the biggest developer in the space, The Metals Company, could get the industry started. As You Sow, the advocacy group promoting the moratorium, said Sunrun’s signature “brings an important voice from the clean energy sector.”
The home electrification company Jetson, which makes smart thermostats and heat pumps, has raised $50 million in a Series A round. Founded less than two years ago, the company pulled in first-time funding from venture firms including Eclipse, 8VC, and Activate Capital, and saw at least two existing investors put in more money. “Heat pumps have worked for decades, but their cost and complexity have put them out of reach of most homeowners,” Stephen Lake, Jetson’s co-founder and chief executive, said in a statement. “We’re removing the friction by making the process digital, fast, and affordable while fully managing the purchase from start to finish. This funding will help us quickly bring this experience to more homeowners across the U.S. and Canada.”
The cost crisis in PJM Interconnection has transcended partisan politics.
If “war is too important to be left to the generals,” as the French statesman Georges Clemenceau said, then electricity policy may be too important to be left up to the regional transmission organizations.
Years of discontent with PJM Interconnection, the 13-state regional transmission organization that serves around 67 million people, has culminated in an unprecedented commandeering of the system’s processes and procedures by the White House, in alliance with governors within the grid’s service area.
An unlikely coalition including Secretary of Energy Chris Wright, Secretary of the Interior Doug Burgum, and the governors of Indiana, Ohio, Virginia, West Virginia, and Tennessee (Republicans), plus the governors of Maryland, Kentucky, Pennsylvania, Delaware, Illinois, Michigan, New Jersey, and North Carolina (Democrats) — i.e. all 13 states of PJM — signed a “Statement of Principles” Friday demanding extensive actions and reforms to bring new generation onto the grid while protecting consumers.
The plan envisions procuring $15 billion of new generation in the region with “revenue certainty” coming from data centers, “whether they show up and use the power or not,” according to a Department of Energy fact sheet. This would occur through what’s known as a “reliability backstop auction,” The DOE described this as a “an emergency procurement auction,” outside of the regular capacity auction where generation gets paid to be available on the grid when needed. The backstop auction would be for new generation to be built and to serve the PJM grid with payments spreading out over 15 years.
“We’re in totally uncharted waters here,” Jon Gordon, director of the clean energy trade group Advanced Energy United, told me, referring to the degree of direction elected officials are attempting to apply to PJM’s processes.
“‘Unprecedented,’ I feel, is a word that has lost all meaning. But I do think this is unprecedented,” Abraham Silverman, a Johns Hopkins University scholar who previously served as the New Jersey Board of Public Utilities’ general counsel, told me.
“In some ways, the biggest deal here is that they got 13 governors and the Trump administration to agree to something,” Silverman said. “I just don't think there's that many things that [Ohio] Governor [Mike] DeWine and or [Indiana] Governor [Mike] Braun agree with [Maryland] Governor [Wes] Moore.”
This document is “the death of the idea that PJM could govern itself,” Silverman told me. “PJM governors have had a real hands off approach to PJM since we transitioned into these market structures that we have now. And I think there was a real sense that the technocrats are in charge now, the governors can kind of step back and leave the PJM wrangling to the public service commissions.”
Those days are over.
The plan from the states and the White House would also seek to maintain price caps in capacity auctions, which Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro had previously obtained through a settlement. The statement envisions a reliability auction for generators to be held by September of this year, and requested that PJM make the necessary filings “expeditiously.”
Shapiro’s office said in a statement that the caps being maintained was a condition of his participation in the agreement, and that the cost limit had already saved consumers over $18 billion.
The Statement of Principles is clear that the costs of new generation procured in the auction should be allocated to data centers that have not “self-procured new capacity or agreed to be curtailable,” a reference to the increasingly popular idea that data centers can avoid increasing the peak demand on the system by reducing their power usage when the grid is stressed.
The dealmaking seems to have sidestepped PJM entirely, with a PJM spokesperson noting to Bloomberg Thursday evening that its representatives “ were not invited to the event they are apparently having” at the White House. PJM also told Politico that it wasn’t involved in the process.
“PJM is reviewing the principles set forth by the White House and governors,” the grid operator said in a statement to Heatmap.
PJM also said that it would be releasing its own long-gestating proposal to reform rules for large load interconnection, on which it failed to achieve consensus among its membership in November, on Friday.
“The Board has been deliberating on this issue since the end of that stakeholder process. We will work with our stakeholders to assess how the White House directive aligns with the Board’s decision,” the statement said.
The type of “backstop procurement” envisioned by the Statement of Principles sits outside of PJM’s capacity auctions, Jefferies analysts wrote in a note to clients, and “has been increasingly inevitable for months,” the note said.
While the top-down steering is precedent-breaking, any procurement within PJM will have to follow the grid’s existing protocols, which means submitting a plan and seeking signoff from the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, Gordon told me. “Everything PJM does is guided by their tariffs and their manuals,” he said. “They follow those very closely.”
The governors of the PJM states have been increasingly vocal about how PJM operates, however, presaging today’s announcement. “Nobody really cared about PJM — or even knew what they PJM was or what they did — until electric prices reached a point where they became a political lightning rod,” Gordon said.
The Statement is also consistent with a flurry of announcements and policies issued by state governments, utility regulators, technology companies, and the White House this year coalescing around the principle that data centers should pay for their power such that they do not increase costs for existing users of the electricity system.
Grid Strategies President Rob Gramlich issued a statement saying that “the principle of new large loads paying their fair share is gaining consensus across states, industry groups, and political parties. The rules that have been in place for years did not ensure that.”
This $15 billion could bring on around 5.5 gigawatts of new capacity, according to calculations done by Jefferies. That figure would come close to the 6.6 gigawatts PJM fell short of its target reserve margin after its last capacity auction, conducted in December.
That auction hit the negotiated price caps and occasioned fierce criticism for how PJM manages its capacity markets. Several commissioners of the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission have criticized PJM for its high capacity prices, low reserve margin, and struggles bringing on new generation. PJM’s Independent Market Monitor has estimated that planned and existing data center construction has added over $23 billion in costs to the system.
Several trade and advocacy groups pointed out, however, that a new auction does not fix PJM’s interconnection issues, which have become a major barrier to getting new resources, especially batteries, onto the grid in the PJM region. “The line for energy projects to connect to the power grid in the Mid-Atlantic has basically had a ‘closed for maintenance’ sign up for nearly four years now, and this proposal does nothing to fix that — or any of the other market and planning reforms that are long overdue,” AEU said in a statement.
The Statement of Principles includes some language on interconnection, asking PJM to “commit to rapidly deploying broader interconnection improvements” and to “achieving meaningful reductions in interconnection timelines,” but this language largely echoes what FERC has been saying since at least its Order No. 2023, which took effect over two years ago.
Climate advocacy group Evergreen Action issued a statement signed by Deputy Director of State Action Julia Kortrey, saying that “without fixing PJM’s broken interconnection process and allowing ready-to-build clean energy resources onto the grid, this deal could amount to little more than a band aid over a mortal wound.”
The administration’s language was predictably hostile to renewables and supportive of fossil fuels, blasting PJM for “misguided policies favored intermittent energy resources” and its “reliance on variable generation resources.” PJM has in fact acted to keep coal plants in its territory running, and has for years warned that “retirements are at risk of outpacing the construction of new resources,” as a PJM whitepaper put it in 2023.
There was a predictable partisan divide at the White House event around generation, with Interior Secretary Burgum blaming a renewables “fairy tale” for PJM’s travails. In a DOE statement, Burgum said “For too long, the Green New Scam has left Mid-Atlantic families in the dark with skyrocketing bills.”
Shapiro shot back that “anyone who stands up here and says we need one and not the other doesn’t have a comprehensive, smart energy dominance strategy — to use your word — that is going to ultimately create jobs, create more freedom and create more opportunity.”
While the partisan culture war over generation may never end, today’s announcement was more notable for the agreement it cemented.
“There is an emerging consensus that the political realities of operating a data center in this day and age means that you have to do it in a way that isn't perceived as big tech outsourcing its electric bill to grandma,” Silverman said.
Editor’s note: This article originally misidentified the political affiliation of the governor of Kentucky. It’s been corrected. We regret the error.
“Additionality” is back.
You may remember “additionality” from such debates as, “How should we structure the hydrogen tax credit?”
Well, it’s back, this time around Meta’s massive investment in nuclear power.
On January 9, the hyperscaler announced that it would be continuing to invest in the nuclear business. The announcement went far beyond its deal last year to buy power from a single existing plant in Illinois and embraced a smorgasbord of financial and operational approaches to nukes. Meta will buy the output for 20 years from two nuclear plants in Ohio, it said, including additional power from increased capacity that will be installed at the plants (as well as additional power from a nuclear plant in Pennsylvania), plus work on developing new, so-far commercially unproven designs from nuclear startups Oklo and TerraPower. All told, this could add up to 6.6 gigawatts of clean, firm power.
Sounds good, right?
Well, the question is how exactly to count that power. Over 2 gigawatts of that capacity is already on the grid from the two existing power plants, operated by Vistra. There will also be an “additional 433 megawatts of combined power output increases” from the existing power plants, known as “uprates,” Vistra said, plus another 3 gigawatts at least from the TerraPower and Oklo projects, which are aiming to come online in the 2030s
Princeton professor and Heatmap contributor Jesse Jenkins cried foul in a series of posts on X and LinkedIn responding to the deal, describing it as “DEEPLY PROBLEMATIC.”
“Additionality” means that new demand should be met with new supply from renewable or clean power. Assuming that Meta wants to use that power to serve additional new demand from data centers, Jenkins argued that “the purchase of 2.1 gigawatts of power … from two EXISTING nuclear power plants … will do nothing but increase emissions AND electricity rates” for customers in the area who are “already grappling with huge bill increases, all while establishing a very dangerous precedent for the whole industry.”
Data center demand is already driving up electricity prices — especially in the area where Meta is signing these deals. Customers in the PJM Interconnection electricity grid, which includes Ohio, have paid $47 billion to ensure they have reliable power over the grid operator’s last three capacity auctions. At least $23 billion of that is attributable to data center usage, according to the market’s independent monitor.
“When a huge gigawatt-scale data center connects to the grid,” Jenkins wrote, “it's like connecting a whole new city, akin to plopping down a Pittsburgh or even Chicago. If you add massive new demand WITHOUT paying for enough new supply to meet that growth, power prices spike! It's the simple law of supply & demand.”
And Meta is investing heavily in data centers within the PJM service area, including its Prometheus “supercluster” in New Albany, Ohio. The company called out this facility in its latest announcement, saying that the suite of projects “will deliver power to the grids that support our operations, including our Prometheus supercluster in New Albany, Ohio.”
The Ohio project has been in the news before and is planning on using 400 megawatts of behind-the-meter gas power. The Ohio Power Siting Board approved 200 megawatts of new gas-fired generation in June.
This is the crux of the issue for Jenkins: “Data centers must pay directly for enough NEW electricity capacity and energy to meet their round-the-clock needs,” he wrote. This power should be clean, both to mitigate the emissions impact of new demand and to meet the goals of hyperscalers, including Meta, to run on 100% clean power (although how to account for that is a whole other debate).
While hyperscalers like Meta still have clean power goals, they have been more sotto voce recently as the Trump administration wages war on solar and wind. (Nuclear, on the other hand, is very much administration approved — Secretary of Energy Chris Wright was at Meta’s event announcing the new nuclear deal.)
Microsoft, for example, mentioned the word “clean” just once in its Trump-approved “Building Community-First AI Infrastructure” manifesto, released Tuesday, which largely concerned how it sought to avoid electricity price hikes for retail customers and conserve water.
It’s not entirely clear that Meta views the entirety of these deals — the power purchase agreements, the uprates, financially supporting the development of new plants — as extra headroom to expand data center development right now. For one, Meta at least publicly claims to care about additionality. Meta’s own public-facing materials describing its clean energy commitments say that a “fundamental tenet of our approach to clean and renewable energy is the concept of additionality: partnering with utilities and developers to add new projects to the grid.”
And it’s already made substantial deals for new clean energy in Ohio. Last summer, Meta announced a deal with renewable developer Invenergy to procure some 440 megawatts of solar power in the state by 2027, for a total of 740 megawatts of renewables in Ohio. So Meta and Jenkins may be less far apart than they seem.
There may well be value in these deals from a sustainability and decarbonization standpoint — not to mention a financial standpoint. Some energy experts questioned Jenkins’ contention that Meta was harming the grid by contracting with existing nuclear plants.
“Based on what I know about these arrangements, they don’t see harm to the market,” Jeff Dennis, a former Department of Energy official who’s now executive director of the Electricity Customer Alliance, an energy buyers’ group that includes Meta, told me.
In power purchase agreements, he said, “the parties are contracting for price and revenue certainty, but then the generator continues to offer its supply into the energy and capacity markets. So the contracting party isn’t siphoning off the output for itself and creating or exacerbating a scarcity situation.”
The Meta deal stands in contrast to the proposed (and later scotched) deal between Amazon and Talen Energy, which would have co-located a data center at the existing Susquehanna nuclear plant and sucked capacity out of PJM.
Dennis said he didn’t think Meta’s new deals would have “any negative impact on prices in PJM” because the plants would be staying in the market and on the grid.
Jenkins praised the parts of the Meta announcement that were both clean and additional — that is, the deals with TerraPower and Oklo, plus the uprates from existing nuclear plants.
“That is a huge purchase of NEW clean supply, and is EXACTLY what hyperscalars [sic] and other large new electricity users should be doing,” Jenkins wrote. “Pay to bring new clean energy online to match their growing demand. That avoids raising rates for other electricity users and ensures new demand is met by new clean supply. Bravo!”
But Dennis argued that you can’t neatly separate out the power purchase agreement for the existing output of the plants and the uprates. It is “reasonable to assume that without an agreement that shores up revenues for their existing output and for maintenance and operation of that existing infrastructure, you simply wouldn't get those upgrades and 500 megawatts of upgrades,” he told me.
There’s also an argument that there’s real value — to the grid, to Meta, to the climate — to giving these plants 20 years of financial certainty. While investment is flooding into expanding and even reviving existing nuclear plants, they don’t always fare well in wholesale power markets like PJM, and saw a rash of plant retirements in the 2010s due to persistently low capacity and energy prices. While the market conditions are now quite different, who knows what the next 20 years might bring.
“From a pure first order principle, I agree with the additionality criticism,” Ethan Paterno, a partner at PA Consulting, an innovation advisory firm, told me. “But from a second or third derivative in the Six Degrees of Kevin Bacon, you can make the argument that the hyperscalers are keeping around nukes that perhaps might otherwise be retired due to economic pressure.”.
Ashley Settle, a Meta spokesperson, told me that the deals “enable the extension of the operational lifespan and increase of the energy production at three facilities.” Settle did not respond, however, when asked how Facebook would factor the deals into its own emissions accounting.
“The only way I see this deal as acceptable,” Jenkins wrote, “is if @Meta signed a PPA with the existing reactors only as a financial hedge & to help unlock the incremental capacity & clean energy from uprates at those plants, and they are NOT counting the capacity or energy attributes from the existing capacity to cover new data center demand.”
There’s some hint that Meta may preserve the additionality concept of matching only new supply with demand, as the announcement refers to “new additional uprate capacity,” and says that “consumers will benefit from a larger supply of reliable, always-ready power through Meta-supported uprates to the Vistra facilities.” The text also refers to “additional 20-year nuclear energy agreements,” however, which would likely not meet strict definitions of additionality as it refers to extending the lifetime and maintaining the output of already existing plants.