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On the storm’s trajectory, solar cell tariffs, and adapting to extreme heat
Current conditions: High wind speeds are expected to fan wildfire flames today in Athens • A scorching heat wave in South Korea won’t let up for another 10 days • The aurora borealis has been stunning viewers in the Northern Hemisphere and may be visible again tonight across northern and upper Midwest states.
Tropical Storm Ernesto formed in the Atlantic yesterday and is moving toward the eastern Caribbean islands. Puerto Rico has activated its National Guard and canceled school in preparation for landfall on Tuesday night. The storm is expected to bring strong winds, heavy rain, flooding, and landslides to the islands before turning north toward Bermuda and possibly strengthening into a hurricane by Thursday. Forecasters don’t think Ernesto will make landfall on the U.S. mainland but said it could bring dangerous rip currents to the East Coast. This is the fifth named storm of the 2024 season and comes just a little over a week after Hurricane Debby struck Florida and swamped states along the southeast for several days.
NOAA
Hurricane season started on June 1 and usually peaks in late August or early September. A few days ago the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration reiterated its warning that this season could be one of the busiest on record. “Sea surface temperatures remain abnormally high, and La Niña is still expected to emerge during the hurricane season, so the time to prepare is now,” said Matthew Rosencrans, lead hurricane season forecaster with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center.
President Biden yesterday gave the green light to additional tariff-free imports of solar cells, more than doubling the volume allowed – from 5 GW to 12.5 GW. The move is an effort to support production for domestic panel makers and put Americans to work manufacturing clean energy tech. Somewhat relatedly, New Mexico’s Governor Michelle Lujan Grisham announced recently that Ebon Solar will build a $942 million solar cell factory in the state. The facility will create more than 900 jobs. New Mexico is also set to be home to the largest solar cell and panel factory in the country when Maxeon Solar Technologies gets its planned facility up and running. “While a huge number of solar panel factories are opening in the U.S., there’s still a dearth of domestic supply of earlier stages of the supply chain – including solar cells,” wrote Michelle Lewis at Electrek.
In case you missed it yesterday: Exclusive Heatmap polling conducted in April found the top concern both Democrats and Republicans have with renewable energy projects in their areas is the harm those facilities could inflict on wildlife. Notably, almost half of all Democrats said consequences for wildlife from projects would elicit “strong concern” from them. Other big concerns for Republicans such as reliability during extreme weather and land use factors received nowhere near the same level of Democratic agreement. The polling result underscores a real vulnerability that energy projects labeled “clean” can face when a would-be host community is faced with information indicating they may produce pollution or harm to the environment, wrote Heatmap’s Jael Holzman. “These conflicts are real, I’m not going to say they aren’t. That’s why I say there are appropriate places to site and inappropriate places to site,” Matt Kirby, senior director of energy and landscape conservation for the National Parks Conservation Association, told Holzman. “I hope that industry understands that it needs to have social license to operate, and it will only be able to get that if they’re a good player.”
Nearly 50,000 people died from extreme heat in Europe in 2023, the hottest year on record, according to a new report from the Barcelona Institute for Global Health (ISGlobal) and published in the journal Nature Medicine. Europe is warming faster than any other continent. Italy had the highest overall number of heat-related deaths last year, followed by Spain and Germany.
ISGlobal
There is a sliver of good news though: Last year’s estimated death toll of 47,690 was lower than the 60,000 heat-related deaths recorded in 2022, and could have been 80% higher if it weren’t for our growing knowledge of how to protect vulnerable populations, especially the elderly. “We see that since 2000, the minimum mortality temperature – the optimum temperature with the lowest mortality risk – has been gradually warming on average over the continent, from 15ºC in 2000-2004 to 17.7ºC in 2015-2019,” said Elisa Gallo, researcher at ISGlobal and lead author of the study. “This indicates that we are less vulnerable to heat than we were at the beginning of the century, probably as a result of general socio-economic progress, improvements in individual behavior, and public health measures such as the heat prevention plans implemented after the record-breaking summer of 2003.”
Construction of the world’s largest pumped hydro plant is complete, according toBloomberg. The Fengning Pumped Storage Power Station, located in China’s Hebei province, cost $2.6 billion to build and began operating in 2022 to help power the Beijing Winter Olympics, but it reportedly just became fully operational with the addition of the 12th and final turbine unit. Some of its units can be adjusted to match variable grid load and demand. The plant has a capacity of 3.6 gigawatts, making it larger than the Bath County plant in Virginia. But a 5GW project planned for Australia would be even bigger.
The motorcycle Tom Cruise rode through Paris in the 2024 Olympics closing ceremony was a LiveWire Del Mar, an electric bike made by Harley-Davidson.
Jamie Squire/Getty Images
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A conversation with VDE Americas CEO Brian Grenko.
This week’s Q&A is about hail. Last week, we explained how and why hail storm damage in Texas may have helped galvanize opposition to renewable energy there. So I decided to reach out to Brian Grenko, CEO of renewables engineering advisory firm VDE Americas, to talk about how developers can make sure their projects are not only resistant to hail but also prevent that sort of pushback.
The following conversation has been lightly edited for clarity.
Hiya Brian. So why’d you get into the hail issue?
Obviously solar panels are made with glass that can allow the sunlight to come through. People have to remember that when you install a project, you’re financing it for 35 to 40 years. While the odds of you getting significant hail in California or Arizona are low, it happens a lot throughout the country. And if you think about some of these large projects, they may be in the middle of nowhere, but they are taking hundreds if not thousands of acres of land in some cases. So the chances of them encountering large hail over that lifespan is pretty significant.
We partnered with one of the country’s foremost experts on hail and developed a really interesting technology that can digest radar data and tell folks if they’re developing a project what the [likelihood] will be if there’s significant hail.
Solar panels can withstand one-inch hail – a golfball size – but once you get over two inches, that’s when hail starts breaking solar panels. So it’s important to understand, first and foremost, if you’re developing a project, you need to know the frequency of those events. Once you know that, you need to start thinking about how to design a system to mitigate that risk.
The government agencies that look over land use, how do they handle this particular issue? Are there regulations in place to deal with hail risk?
The regulatory aspects still to consider are about land use. There are authorities with jurisdiction at the federal, state, and local level. Usually, it starts with the local level and with a use permit – a conditional use permit. The developer goes in front of the township or the city or the county, whoever has jurisdiction of wherever the property is going to go. That’s where it gets political.
To answer your question about hail, I don’t know if any of the [authority having jurisdictions] really care about hail. There are folks out there that don’t like solar because it’s an eyesore. I respect that – I don’t agree with that, per se, but I understand and appreciate it. There’s folks with an agenda that just don’t want solar.
So okay, how can developers approach hail risk in a way that makes communities more comfortable?
The bad news is that solar panels use a lot of glass. They take up a lot of land. If you have hail dropping from the sky, that’s a risk.
The good news is that you can design a system to be resilient to that. Even in places like Texas, where you get large hail, preparing can mean the difference between a project that is destroyed and a project that isn’t. We did a case study about a project in the East Texas area called Fighting Jays that had catastrophic damage. We’re very familiar with the area, we work with a lot of clients, and we found three other projects within a five-mile radius that all had minimal damage. That simple decision [to be ready for when storms hit] can make the complete difference.
And more of the week’s big fights around renewable energy.
1. Long Island, New York – We saw the face of the resistance to the war on renewable energy in the Big Apple this week, as protestors rallied in support of offshore wind for a change.
2. Elsewhere on Long Island – The city of Glen Cove is on the verge of being the next New York City-area community with a battery storage ban, discussing this week whether to ban BESS for at least one year amid fire fears.
3. Garrett County, Maryland – Fight readers tell me they’d like to hear a piece of good news for once, so here’s this: A 300-megawatt solar project proposed by REV Solar in rural Maryland appears to be moving forward without a hitch.
4. Stark County, Ohio – The Ohio Public Siting Board rejected Samsung C&T’s Stark Solar project, citing “consistent opposition to the project from each of the local government entities and their impacted constituents.”
5. Ingham County, Michigan – GOP lawmakers in the Michigan State Capitol are advancing legislation to undo the state’s permitting primacy law, which allows developers to evade municipalities that deny projects on unreasonable grounds. It’s unlikely the legislation will become law.
6. Churchill County, Nevada – Commissioners have upheld the special use permit for the Redwood Materials battery storage project we told you about last week.
Long Islanders, meanwhile, are showing up in support of offshore wind, and more in this week’s edition of The Fight.
Local renewables restrictions are on the rise in the Hawkeye State – and it might have something to do with carbon pipelines.
Iowa’s known as a renewables growth area, producing more wind energy than any other state and offering ample acreage for utility-scale solar development. This has happened despite the fact that Iowa, like Ohio, is home to many large agricultural facilities – a trait that has often fomented conflict over specific projects. Iowa has defied this logic in part because the state was very early to renewables, enacting a state portfolio standard in 1983, signed into law by a Republican governor.
But something else is now on the rise: Counties are passing anti-renewables moratoria and ordinances restricting solar and wind energy development. We analyzed Heatmap Pro data on local laws and found a rise in local restrictions starting in 2021, leading to nearly 20 of the state’s 99 counties – about one fifth – having some form of restrictive ordinance on solar, wind or battery storage.
What is sparking this hostility? Some of it might be counties following the partisan trend, as renewable energy has struggled in hyper-conservative spots in the U.S. But it may also have to do with an outsized focus on land use rights and energy development that emerged from the conflict over carbon pipelines, which has intensified opposition to any usage of eminent domain for energy development.
The central node of this tension is the Summit Carbon Solutions CO2 pipeline. As we explained in a previous edition of The Fight, the carbon transportation network would cross five states, and has galvanized rural opposition against it. Last November, I predicted the Summit pipeline would have an easier time under Trump because of his circle’s support for oil and gas, as well as the placement of former North Dakota Governor Doug Burgum as interior secretary, as Burgum was a major Summit supporter.
Admittedly, this prediction has turned out to be incorrect – but it had nothing to do with Trump. Instead, Summit is now stalled because grassroots opposition to the pipeline quickly mobilized to pressure regulators in states the pipeline is proposed to traverse. They’re aiming to deny the company permits and lobbying state legislatures to pass bills banning the use of eminent domain for carbon pipelines. One of those states is South Dakota, where the governor last month signed an eminent domain ban for CO2 pipelines. On Thursday, South Dakota regulators denied key permits for the pipeline for the third time in a row.
Another place where the Summit opposition is working furiously: Iowa, where opposition to the CO2 pipeline network is so intense that it became an issue in the 2020 presidential primary. Regulators in the state have been more willing to greenlight permits for the project, but grassroots activists have pressured many counties into some form of opposition.
The same counties with CO2 pipeline moratoria have enacted bans or land use restrictions on developing various forms of renewables, too. Like Kossuth County, which passed a resolution decrying the use of eminent domain to construct the Summit pipeline – and then three months later enacted a moratorium on utility-scale solar.
I asked Jessica Manzour, a conservation program associate with Sierra Club fighting the Summit pipeline, about this phenomenon earlier this week. She told me that some counties are opposing CO2 pipelines and then suddenly tacking on or pivoting to renewables next. In other cases, counties with a burgeoning opposition to renewables take up the pipeline cause, too. In either case, this general frustration with energy companies developing large plots of land is kicking up dust in places that previously may have had a much lower opposition risk.
“We painted a roadmap with this Summit fight,” said Jess Manzour, a campaigner with Sierra Club involved in organizing opposition to the pipeline at the grassroots level, who said zealous anti-renewables activists and officials are in some cases lumping these items together under a broad umbrella. ”I don’t know if it’s the people pushing for these ordinances, rather than people taking advantage of the situation.”