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“That’s going to cause confusion.”
It’s been nearly two years since the Inflation Reduction Act passed, and two of its programs designed to encourage home electrification and energy efficiency — worth a combined $8.8 billion — are still not operational.
The delay has already caused consternation among homeowners who can’t understand why they still don’t know when the rebates will be available or what they will cover. Now it’s becoming apparent that these programs could look quite different state by state.
This is, to some extent, by design. The rebates will be distributed by state governments, who must first apply to the Department of Energy for their share of the funding. Most states are still in the process of putting together their applications. The law laid out some rules for how these programs would work, e.g. which kinds of appliances and upgrades the rebates will subsidize and the maximum subsidy per appliance and per household. It also put restrictions on who could benefit from the programs, with most of the money earmarked for low- and moderate-income households. But it left plenty of flexibility for states to tailor the programs to their own needs.
That’s mostly a good thing. Many states already offer robust electrification and efficiency rebates, but their existing programs have major shortcomings. Apartment buildings, in particular, have been hard to reach — both because landlords have little incentive to make upgrades and because it’s much more complicated to retrofit a big apartment building than a single-family home. The IRA rebates create an opportunity to try and fill these kinds of gaps.
But the result is also, frankly, messy. The money is taking a long time to get out the door, and when it does the programs are going to be convoluted and challenging to communicate to consumers.This could turn out to be a missed opportunity for Biden. When the polling nonprofit Data for Progress asks voters about their greatest concerns relating to climate, they point to energy costs, pollution, and extreme weather. The IRA rebates are an opportunity to address these concerns, and 71% of voters support the programs — including majorities across party lines — according to the group’s surveys.
“Nobody would say that this rollout has been as fast as they would have wanted,” Sage Briscoe, the federal policy director for Rewiring America, told me. “But I’m hopeful that it's going to be really impactful, and at the end of the day, that’s the main thing.”
Information on how states are thinking about distributing the money is scarce. Some did extensive stakeholder engagement prior to submitting their applications and made their proposed plans public, while others are saving that process until after they apply. I combed through as much publicly available information as I could find and discovered a number of ways in which these rebate programs could diverge. The programs may go by different names in different states. Moreover, a heat pump discount in Maine may not exist in Rhode Island, or a family that qualifies for funding in Wisconsin may not have qualified had they lived in New Jersey.
Here are some of the big themes.
The challenge in understanding these programs starts with their most basic feature. What are they called?
One of the programs will provide point-of-sale rebates on specific appliances and upgrades such as heat pumps, insulation, or a new electric panel. This was originally called the High-Efficiency Electric Home Rebate Act, or HEEHRA. Some states have continued to use that acronym. Others have adopted the name the Home Electrification and Appliance Rebates, or HEAR. (For the sake of brevity, I’ll use HEAR.)
The other program, which is a bit more complicated, provides rebates based on the amount of energy a home retrofit project saves. For example, if a homeowner implements a bunch of improvements that will reduce their energy consumption by at least 20%, they could get up to $4,000 back, while upgrades that result in a 35% reduction are eligible for up to $8,000. This was originally called the HOPE for HOMES Act, and many states simply refer to it as HOMES. Others prefer the title Home Efficiency Rebates, or HER. (To make things more confusing, the Department of Energy refers to its two programs together as the Home Energy Rebates and also uses the acronym HER. For the sake of clarity, I’ll refer to this one as HOMES.)
Meanwhile, some states are funneling the money into their own pre-existing rebate programs or creating new programs with new names. For example, New York — the only state to have received funding under the IRA rebate programs so far— will distribute at least some of the HEAR money through its Empower+ program, which already helps low- and moderate-income households save energy. The state will be able to expand the program’s offerings to include paying for electrical upgrades needed to install heat pumps or induction stoves. Vermont wants to allocate most of the HOMES funding to its Weatherization Assistance Program, which is an older, federally funded, state-implemented efficiency program for low-income households. New Jersey is considering putting most of the funding from both pots toward a new program called M-RISE.
Ultimately, this could mean that many people who apply for or receive these rebates will have no idea that they’re benefiting from Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act.
“That was baked in the cake the way the law was written,” Andy Frank, the founder of the home electrification company Sealed, told me. He said he thinks the bigger communication challenge will be when the first few states start launching their programs. Biden officials may take the opportunity to do a victory lap, inviting national press. People in other states may see the news and think they can get rebates too. “That’s going to cause confusion,” he said.
Briscoe acknowledged the branding challenge but said it was not the most important part of the legislation. “The most important thing is getting families the help that they need, and I think that’s rightfully where the emphasis has been,” she told me.
Congress included a long list of technologies that would be eligible for discounts under the HEAR program: Heat pump space heaters, heat pump water heaters, heat pump clothes dryers, electric stoves, electric panels, electric wiring, insulation, air sealing, and ventilation systems.
While it seems that most states plan to copy and paste the whole list into their plans, a few are narrowing it down. Maine, for example, has proposed offering rebates only for heat pumps, plus electric wiring and panel upgrades if needed. Its draft strategic plan from January says that the state has alternative funding streams to sustain its existing programs for water heaters and insulation, and that the other appliances, like stoves and clothes dryers, “have less impact on home energy costs and carbon emissions.”
Rhode Island, on the other hand, may not allocate any of the funding for heat pumps. The state conducted a “gap analysis” to identify which of the technologies have the least funding support under its existing programs and determined that stoves, clothes dryers, electric panels, and wiring were the best use of the HEAR funds. That doesn’t mean Rhode Islanders wouldn’t be able to get rebates for heat pumps — the state energy office offers incentives, as do all of its utilities. It just means they wouldn’t be able to get more funding on top of what’s already offered.
Wisconsin, which is further behind these Northeast states in promoting electrification, is opting to make all of the technologies eligible. Though narrowing the list would extend the budget for each one, state officials noted, it would also “preclude the state from accelerating market adoption for those upgrades.”
Congress restricted HEAR program funding to low-income households, defined as those making less than 80% of the area median income, and moderate-income households, or those making between 80% and 150% of the area median income. The HOMES program is not income-restricted, though states were instructed to offer higher rebates for low-income households.
There’s going to be a lot of variation between states regarding how much funding they dedicate to each income bracket. But there also may be some variation in the types of buildings that are eligible.
Maine has proposed dedicating 100% of the funding under the HOMES program and much of the funding under HEAR to multifamily buildings. For the HEAR program, it might also prioritize subsidizing heat pump retrofits in manufactured housing, formerly referred to as “mobile homes.” That means if you’re a single family homeowner in Maine, you probably won’t benefit from the program — although Maine already has extensive subsidies for single-family homes and has completed more than 100,000 heat pump retrofits since 2019.
“They're taking this funding to try and move beyond that section of housing and open up robust programs for areas where they still have really high need,” said Briscoe.
New Jersey has proposed a similar approach, dedicating 100% of HOMES funding and 85% of HEAR funding to multifamily buildings in low-income neighborhoods. The remaining 15% will go toward an existing state program called Comfort Partners that subsidizes energy efficiency measures to expand its offerings to heat pumps, electrical panels, wiring, and water heaters.
Sealed and Rewiring America are both working on tools to help consumers and contractors navigate all of this confusion. Frank told me Sealed was developing software for contractors that will help them determine customer eligibility and calculate total savings at the point of sale, and then process the rebate paperwork as quickly and easily as possible. Rewiring America is building what it intends to be a user-friendly calculator in which a homeowner will be able to enter their zip code and income and get information about all of the programs they are eligible for, including state, local, and utility-run offerings.
Or at least Californians are. Dozens have written to the California Energy Commission to ask when the rebates will be available, whether they will qualify, or to express their frustration with how long it’s taking to get the program up and running.
Consider the following comment submitted in April by Kristen Talley, a homeowner who wants to replace her gas furnace with an electric heat pump. “We’d hoped to do the project last fall … and we can’t proceed until the rebates are available,” she wrote. “Please establish criteria and make applications available NOW!!! It’s crazy that it's taken this long!”
Richard Pellin, a 77-year-old retiree who does not have enough income to qualify for the tax credits, wrote that he wants to install a new heat pump system so that he can have air conditioning. “We suffered badly last year from the summer heat … Waiting until the state programs are ready to issue rebates would cause us to suffer longer,” he said. He implored the commission to allow the rebates to be claimed retroactively, warning that otherwise there might be “a surge of activity when rebates are approved” that will tax supply chains and labor and cause further delays. (The Department of Energy has specified that the HEAR rebates cannot be claimed retroactively, but it may be possible for the HOMES rebates.)
Some of this frustration is misplaced. California submitted its application for the HEAR program in January and is waiting on the Department of Energy to approve it. In the meantime, it may even be possible that Talley and Pellin are eligible for existing California rebate programs, though discounts through those are significantly lower.
Another public comment from Richard Bailey had the subject line: “Time is of the essence.” Bailey warned that the rebates could be “canceled, denied, delayed, etc” if Trump was elected. “Much is at risk. Do not delay,” he wrote.
I asked Briscoe how much of a risk this was. She said it would require an act of Congress to cancel the programs — in other words, it’s not something Trump could do on day one. Even then, money that’s already been awarded to states cannot be clawed back. Fifteen states have already submitted their applications, and are expected to receive funding by the end of the year.
“Hopefully, we can get a lot of these applications in and processed before any new administration were to take over,” said Briscoe.
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Republicans Mark Amodei of Nevada and Celeste Maloy of Utah introduced the measure late Tuesday night.
Late last week, the House Committee on Natural Resources released the draft text of its portion of the Republicans’ budget package. While the bill included mandates to open oil and gas leasing in Alaska’s Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, increase logging by 25% over 2024’s harvest, and allow for mining activities upstream of Minnesota’s popular Boundary Waters recreation area, there was also a conspicuous absence in its 96 pages: an explicit plan to sell off public lands.
To many of the environmental groups that have been sounding the alarm about Republicans’ ambitions to privatize federal lands — which make up about 47% of the American West — the particular exclusion seemed almost too good to be true. And as it turned out in the bill’s markup on Tuesday, it was. In a late-night amendment, Republican Representatives Mark Amodei of Nevada and Celeste Maloy of Utah introduced a provision to sell off 11,000 acres in their states.
The maneuver, which came at nearly midnight, left many Democrats and environmental groups deeply frustrated by the lack of transparency. “The rushed and last-minute nature of this amendment introduction means little to no information is available,” including “maps or parcel information, amendment text, CBO Score, etc.,” the Southern Utah Wilderness Alliance said in a statement Wednesday.
House lawmakers appeared still to be at odds during a Wednesday morning press conference to announce the creation of a Bipartisan Public Lands Caucus. Rather than putting on the united front suggested by the working group’s name, former Secretary of the Interior and Montana Republican Ryan Zinke argued in defense of the amendment, saying, “A lot of communities are drying up because they’re looking to public land next door and they can’t use it.” Michigan Democrat Debbie Dingell then took the mic to say, “I would urge all of us that the hearings — it’s not done in the dead of night, and that we have good, bipartisan discussions with everybody impacted at the table.”
Despite the cloak-and-dagger way Republicans introduced the amendment, there are several clues as to what exactly Amodei and Maloy are up to. Republican Senator Mike Lee of Utah has aggressively pushed for the sell-off of public lands, including introducing the Helping Open Underutilized Space to Ensure Shelter (HOUSES) Act, which would “make small tracts of [Bureau of Land Management] land available to communities to address housing shortages or affordability.” Critics of the bill have called it the “McMansion Subsidy Act” and have argued — as the Center for Western Priorities’ Kate Groetzinger, does — that it would “do little to address housing issues in major metros like Salt Lake City and the fact that the current housing shortage is due largely to a lack of home construction, not land.” The Center for Western Priorities also contends that it “contains very few restrictions on what can be built on federal public lands that are sold off under the program.” Notably, Lee and Maloy have worked closely together in the past on transferring federal land in Utah to private ownership.
The land singled out in the Tuesday amendment includes BLM and Forest Service parcels in six counties in Utah and Nevada that “had already been identified for disposal by the counties,” Outdoor Life notes. While some land would be sold with “the express purpose of alleviating housing affordability,” the publication notes that “other parcels, including those in southern Utah, don’t have a designated purpose.” As Michael Carroll, the BLM campaign director for the Wilderness Society, warned E&E News, it’s in this way that the bill appears to set “dangerous precedent that is intended to pave the way for a much larger scale transfer of public lands.”
While many Republicans contend that states can better manage public lands in the West than the federal government can (in addition, of course, to helping raise the $15 billion of the desired $2 trillion in deficit reductions across the government to offset Trump’s tax cuts), such a move could also have significant consequences for the environment. Turning over public lands to states — or to private owners — could ease the way for expansive oil and gas development, especially in Utah, where there are ambitions to quadruple exports of fossil fuels from the state’s northeastern corner.
Reducing BLM land could also limit opportunities for solar, wind, and geothermal development; in Utah, the agency has identified some 5 million acres of public land, in addition to 11.8 million acres in Nevada, for solar development. While there are admittedly questions about how much renewable permitting will make it through the Trump BLM, it’s also true that solar development wouldn’t necessarily be the preference of private landowners if the land were transferred.
Tuesday’s markup ultimately saw the introduction of more than 120 amendments, including a Democratic provision that would have prohibited revenue from this bill from being used to sell off public lands, but was easily struck down by Republicans. In the end, Amodei and Maloy’s amendment was the only one the committee adopted. Shortly afterward, the lawmakers voted 26-17 to advance the legislation.
Ecolectro, a maker of electrolyzers, has a new manufacturing deal with Re:Build.
By all outward appearances, the green hydrogen industry is in a state of arrested development. The hype cycle of project announcements stemming from Biden-era policies crashed after those policies took too long to implement. A number of high profile clean hydrogen projects have fallen apart since the start of the year, and deep uncertainty remains about whether the Trump administration will go to bat for the industry or further cripple it.
The picture may not be as bleak as it seems, however. On Wednesday, the green hydrogen startup Ecolectro, which has been quietly developing its technology for more than a decade, came out with a new plan to bring the tech to market. The company announced a partnership with Re:Build Manufacturing, a sort of manufacturing incubator that helps startups optimize their products for U.S. fabrication, to build their first units, design their assembly lines, and eventually begin producing at a commercial scale in a Re:Build-owned factory.
“It is a lot for a startup to create a massive manufacturing facility that’s going to cost hundreds of millions of dollars when they’re pre-revenue,” Jon Gordon, Ecolectro’s chief commercial officer, told me. This contract manufacturing partnership with Re:Build is “massive,” he said, because it means Ecolectro doesn’t have to take on lots of debt to scale. (The companies did not disclose the size of the contract.)
The company expects to begin producing its first electrolyzer units — devices that split water into hydrogen and oxygen using electricity — at Re:Build’s industrial design and fabrication site in Rochester, New York, later this year. If all goes well, it will move production to Re:Build’s high-volume manufacturing facility in New Kensington, Pennsylvania next year.
The number one obstacle to scaling up the production and use of cleaner hydrogen, which could help cut emissions from fertilizer, aviation, steelmaking, and other heavy industries, is the high cost of producing it. Under the Biden administration, Congress passed a suite of policies designed to kick-start the industry, including an $8 billion grant program and a lucrative new tax credit. But Biden only got a small fraction of the grant money out the door, and did not finalize the rules for claiming the tax credit until January. Now, the Trump administration is considering terminating its agreements with some of the grant recipients, and Republicans in Congress might change or kill the tax credit.
Since the start of the year, a $500 million fuel plant in upstate New York, a $400 million manufacturing facility in Michigan, and a $500 million green steel factory in Mississippi, have been cancelled or indefinitely delayed.
The outlook is particularly bad for hydrogen made from water and electricity, often called “green” hydrogen, according to a recent BloombergNEF analysis. Trump’s tariffs could increase the cost of green hydrogen by 14%, or $1 per kilogram, based on tariff announcements as of April 8. More than 70% of the clean hydrogen volumes coming online between now and 2030 are what’s known as “blue” hydrogen, made using natural gas, with carbon capture to eliminate climate pollution. “Blue hydrogen has more demand than green hydrogen, not just because it’s cheaper to produce, but also because there’s a lot less uncertainty around it,” BloombergNEF analyst Payal Kaur said during a presentation at the research firm’s recent summit in New York City. Blue hydrogen companies can take advantage of a tax credit for carbon capture, which Congress is much less likely to scrap than the hydrogen tax credit.
Gordon is intimately familiar with hydrogen’s cost impediments. He came to Ecolectro after four years as co-founder of Universal Hydrogen, a startup building hydrogen-powered planes that shut down last summer after burning through its cash and failing to raise more. By the end, Gordon had become a hydrogen skeptic, he told me. The company had customers interested in its planes, but clean hydrogen fuel was too expensive at $15 to $20 per kilogram. It needed to come in under $2.50 to compete with jet fuel. “Regional aviation customers weren’t going to spend 10 times the ticket price just to fly zero emissions,” he said. “It wasn’t clear to me, and I don’t think it was clear to our prospective investors, how the cost of hydrogen was going to be reduced.” Now, he’s convinced that Ecolectro’s new chemistry is the answer.
Ecolectro started in a lab at Cornell University, where its cofounder and chief science officer Kristina Hugar was doing her PhD research. Hugar developed a new material, a polymer “anion exchange membrane,” that had potential to significantly lower the cost of electrolyzers. Many of the companies making electrolyzers use designs that require expensive and supply-constrained metals like iridium and titanium. Hugar’s membrane makes it possible to use low-cost nickel and steel instead.
The company’s “stack,” the sandwich of an anode, membrane, and cathode that makes up the core of the electrolyzer, costs at least 50% less than the “proton exchange membrane” versions on the market today, according to Gordon. In lab tests, it has achieved more than 70% efficiency, meaning that more than 70% of the electrical energy going into the system is converted into usable chemical energy stored in hydrogen. The industry average is around 61%, according to the Department of Energy.
In addition to using cheaper materials, the company is focused on building electrolyzers that customers can install on-site to eliminate the cost of transporting the fuel. Its first customer was Liberty New York Gas, a natural gas company in Massena, New York, which installed a small, 10-kilowatt electrolyzer in a shipping container directly outside its office as part of a pilot project. Like many natural gas companies, Liberty is testing blending small amounts of hydrogen into its system — in this case, directly into the heating systems it uses in the office building — to evaluate it as an option for lowering emissions across its customer base. The equipment draws electricity from the local electric grid, which, in that region, mostly comes from low-cost hydroelectric power plants.
Taking into account the expected manufacturing cost for a commercial-scale electrolyzer, Ecolectro says that a project paying the same low price for water and power as Liberty would be able to produce hydrogen for less than $2.50 per kilogram — even without subsidies. Through its partnership with Re:Build, the company will produce electrolyzers in the 250- to 500-kilowatt range, as well as in the 1- to 5-megawatt range. It will be announcing a larger 250-kilowatt pilot project later this year, Gordon said.
All of this sounded promising, but what I really wanted to know is who Ecolectro thought its customers were going to be. Demand for clean hydrogen, or the lack thereof, is perhaps the biggest challenge the industry faces to scaling, after cost. Of the roughly 13 million to 15 million tons of clean hydrogen production announced to come online between now and 2030, companies only have offtake agreements for about 2.5 million tons, according to Kaur of BNEF. Most of those agreements are also non-binding, meaning they may not even happen.
Gordon tied companies’ struggle with offtake to their business models of building big, expensive, facilities in remote areas, meaning the hydrogen has to be transported long distances to customers. He said that when he was with Universal Hydrogen, he tried negotiating offtake agreements with some of these big projects, but they were asking customers to commit to 20-year contracts — and to figure out the delivery on their own.
“Right now, where we see the industry is that people want less hydrogen than that,” he said. “So we make it much easier for the customer to adopt by leasing them this unit. They don’t have to pay some enormous capex, and then it’s on site and it’s producing a fair amount of hydrogen for them to engage in pilot studies of blending, or refining, or whatever they’re going to use it for.”
He expects most of the demand to come from industrial customers that already use hydrogen, like fertilizer companies and refineries, that want to switch to a cleaner version of the fuel, or hydrogen-curious companies that want to experiment with blending it into their natural gas burners to reduce their emissions. Demand will also be geographically-limited to places like New York, Washington State, and Texas, that have low-cost electricity available, he said. “I think the opportunity is big, and it’s here, but only if you’re using a product like ours.”
On coal mines, Energy Star, and the EV tax credit
Current conditions: Storms continue to roll through North Texas today, where a home caught fire from a lightning strike earlier this week • Warm, dry days ahead may hinder hotshot crews’ attempts to contain the 1,500-acre Sawlog fire, burning about 40 miles west of Butte, Montana• Severe thunderstorms could move through Rome today on the first day of the papal conclave.
The International Energy Agency published its annual Global Methane Tracker report on Wednesday morning, finding that over 120 million tons of the potent greenhouse gas were emitted by oil, gas, and coal in 2024, close to the record high in 2019. In particular, the research found that coal mines were the second-largest energy sector methane emitter after oil, at 40 million tons — about equivalent to India’s annual carbon dioxide emissions. Abandoned coal mines alone emitted nearly 5 million tons of methane, more than abandoned oil and gas wells at 3 million tons.
“Coal, one of the biggest methane culprits, is still being ignored,” Sabina Assan, the methane analyst at the energy think tank Ember, said in a statement. “There are cost-effective technologies available today, so this is a low-hanging fruit of tackling methane.” Per the IEA report, about 70% of all annual methane emissions from the energy sector “could be avoided with existing technologies,” and “a significant share of abatement measures could pay for themselves within a year.” Around 35 million tons of total methane emissions from fossil fuels “could be avoided at no net cost, based on average energy prices in 2024,” the report goes on. Read the full findings here.
Opportunities to reduce methane emissions in the energy sector, 2024
IEA
The Environmental Protection Agency told staff this week that the division that oversees the Energy Star efficiency certification program for home appliances will be eliminated as part of the Trump administration’s ongoing cuts and reorganization, The Washington Post reports. The Energy Star program, which was created under President George H.W. Bush, has, in the past three decades, helped Americans save more than $500 billion in energy costs by directing them to more efficient appliances, as well as prevented an estimated 4 billion metric tons of greenhouse gas from entering the atmosphere since 1992, according to the government’s numbers. Almost 90% of Americans recognize its blue logo on sight, per The New York Times.
President Trump, however, has taken a personal interest in what he believes are poorly performing shower heads, dishwashers, and other appliances (although, as we’ve fact-checked here at Heatmap, many of his opinions on the issue are outdated or misplaced). In a letter on Tuesday, a large coalition of industry groups including the Air-Conditioning, Heating, and Refrigeration Institute, the Association of Home Appliance Manufacturers, and the U.S. Chamber of Commerce wrote to EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin in defense of Energy Star, arguing it is “an example of an effective non-regulatory program and partnership between the government and the private sector. Eliminating it will not serve the American people.”
House Speaker Mike Johnson suggested that the electric vehicle tax credit may be on its last legs, according to an interview he gave Bloomberg on Tuesday. “I think there is a better chance we kill it than save it,” Johnson said. “But we’ll see how it comes out.” He estimated that House Republicans would reveal their plan for the tax credits later this week. Still, as Bloomberg notes, a potential hangup may be that “many EV factories have been built or are under construction in GOP districts.”
As we’ve covered at Heatmap, President Trump flirted with ending the $7,500 tax credit for EVs throughout his campaign, a move that would mark “a significant setback to the American auto industry’s attempts to make the transition to electric vehicles,” my colleague Robinson Meyer writes. That holds true for all EV makers, including Tesla, the world’s most valuable auto company. However, its CEO, Elon Musk — who holds an influential position within the government — has said he supports the end of the tax credit “because Tesla has more experience building EVs than any other company, [and] it would suffer least from the subsidy’s disappearance.”
Constellation Energy Corp. held its quarterly earnings call on Tuesday, announcing that its operating revenue rose more than 10% in the first three months of the year compared to 2024, beating expectations. Shares climbed 12% after the call, with Chief Executive Officer Joe Dominguez confirming that Constellation’s pending purchase of natural gas and geothermal energy firm Calpine is on track to be completed by the end of the year, and that the nuclear power utility is “working hard to meet the power needs of customers nationwide, including powering the new AI products that Americans increasingly are using in their daily lives and that businesses and government are using to provide better products and services.”
But as my colleague Matthew Zeitlin reported, Dominguez also threw some “lukewarm water on the most aggressive load growth projections,” telling investors that “it’s not hard to conclude that the headlines are inflated.” As Matthew points out, Dominguez also has some reason to downplay expectations, including that “there needs to be massive investment in new power plants,” which could affect the value of Constellation’s existing generation fleet.
The Rockefeller Foundation aims to phase out 60 coal-fired power plants by 2030 by using revenue from carbon credits to cover the costs of closures, the Financial Times reports. The team working on the initiative has identified 1,000 plants in developing countries that would be eligible for the program under its methodology.