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“That’s going to cause confusion.”
It’s been nearly two years since the Inflation Reduction Act passed, and two of its programs designed to encourage home electrification and energy efficiency — worth a combined $8.8 billion — are still not operational.
The delay has already caused consternation among homeowners who can’t understand why they still don’t know when the rebates will be available or what they will cover. Now it’s becoming apparent that these programs could look quite different state by state.
This is, to some extent, by design. The rebates will be distributed by state governments, who must first apply to the Department of Energy for their share of the funding. Most states are still in the process of putting together their applications. The law laid out some rules for how these programs would work, e.g. which kinds of appliances and upgrades the rebates will subsidize and the maximum subsidy per appliance and per household. It also put restrictions on who could benefit from the programs, with most of the money earmarked for low- and moderate-income households. But it left plenty of flexibility for states to tailor the programs to their own needs.
That’s mostly a good thing. Many states already offer robust electrification and efficiency rebates, but their existing programs have major shortcomings. Apartment buildings, in particular, have been hard to reach — both because landlords have little incentive to make upgrades and because it’s much more complicated to retrofit a big apartment building than a single-family home. The IRA rebates create an opportunity to try and fill these kinds of gaps.
But the result is also, frankly, messy. The money is taking a long time to get out the door, and when it does the programs are going to be convoluted and challenging to communicate to consumers.This could turn out to be a missed opportunity for Biden. When the polling nonprofit Data for Progress asks voters about their greatest concerns relating to climate, they point to energy costs, pollution, and extreme weather. The IRA rebates are an opportunity to address these concerns, and 71% of voters support the programs — including majorities across party lines — according to the group’s surveys.
“Nobody would say that this rollout has been as fast as they would have wanted,” Sage Briscoe, the federal policy director for Rewiring America, told me. “But I’m hopeful that it's going to be really impactful, and at the end of the day, that’s the main thing.”
Information on how states are thinking about distributing the money is scarce. Some did extensive stakeholder engagement prior to submitting their applications and made their proposed plans public, while others are saving that process until after they apply. I combed through as much publicly available information as I could find and discovered a number of ways in which these rebate programs could diverge. The programs may go by different names in different states. Moreover, a heat pump discount in Maine may not exist in Rhode Island, or a family that qualifies for funding in Wisconsin may not have qualified had they lived in New Jersey.
Here are some of the big themes.
The challenge in understanding these programs starts with their most basic feature. What are they called?
One of the programs will provide point-of-sale rebates on specific appliances and upgrades such as heat pumps, insulation, or a new electric panel. This was originally called the High-Efficiency Electric Home Rebate Act, or HEEHRA. Some states have continued to use that acronym. Others have adopted the name the Home Electrification and Appliance Rebates, or HEAR. (For the sake of brevity, I’ll use HEAR.)
The other program, which is a bit more complicated, provides rebates based on the amount of energy a home retrofit project saves. For example, if a homeowner implements a bunch of improvements that will reduce their energy consumption by at least 20%, they could get up to $4,000 back, while upgrades that result in a 35% reduction are eligible for up to $8,000. This was originally called the HOPE for HOMES Act, and many states simply refer to it as HOMES. Others prefer the title Home Efficiency Rebates, or HER. (To make things more confusing, the Department of Energy refers to its two programs together as the Home Energy Rebates and also uses the acronym HER. For the sake of clarity, I’ll refer to this one as HOMES.)
Meanwhile, some states are funneling the money into their own pre-existing rebate programs or creating new programs with new names. For example, New York — the only state to have received funding under the IRA rebate programs so far— will distribute at least some of the HEAR money through its Empower+ program, which already helps low- and moderate-income households save energy. The state will be able to expand the program’s offerings to include paying for electrical upgrades needed to install heat pumps or induction stoves. Vermont wants to allocate most of the HOMES funding to its Weatherization Assistance Program, which is an older, federally funded, state-implemented efficiency program for low-income households. New Jersey is considering putting most of the funding from both pots toward a new program called M-RISE.
Ultimately, this could mean that many people who apply for or receive these rebates will have no idea that they’re benefiting from Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act.
“That was baked in the cake the way the law was written,” Andy Frank, the founder of the home electrification company Sealed, told me. He said he thinks the bigger communication challenge will be when the first few states start launching their programs. Biden officials may take the opportunity to do a victory lap, inviting national press. People in other states may see the news and think they can get rebates too. “That’s going to cause confusion,” he said.
Briscoe acknowledged the branding challenge but said it was not the most important part of the legislation. “The most important thing is getting families the help that they need, and I think that’s rightfully where the emphasis has been,” she told me.
Congress included a long list of technologies that would be eligible for discounts under the HEAR program: Heat pump space heaters, heat pump water heaters, heat pump clothes dryers, electric stoves, electric panels, electric wiring, insulation, air sealing, and ventilation systems.
While it seems that most states plan to copy and paste the whole list into their plans, a few are narrowing it down. Maine, for example, has proposed offering rebates only for heat pumps, plus electric wiring and panel upgrades if needed. Its draft strategic plan from January says that the state has alternative funding streams to sustain its existing programs for water heaters and insulation, and that the other appliances, like stoves and clothes dryers, “have less impact on home energy costs and carbon emissions.”
Rhode Island, on the other hand, may not allocate any of the funding for heat pumps. The state conducted a “gap analysis” to identify which of the technologies have the least funding support under its existing programs and determined that stoves, clothes dryers, electric panels, and wiring were the best use of the HEAR funds. That doesn’t mean Rhode Islanders wouldn’t be able to get rebates for heat pumps — the state energy office offers incentives, as do all of its utilities. It just means they wouldn’t be able to get more funding on top of what’s already offered.
Wisconsin, which is further behind these Northeast states in promoting electrification, is opting to make all of the technologies eligible. Though narrowing the list would extend the budget for each one, state officials noted, it would also “preclude the state from accelerating market adoption for those upgrades.”
Congress restricted HEAR program funding to low-income households, defined as those making less than 80% of the area median income, and moderate-income households, or those making between 80% and 150% of the area median income. The HOMES program is not income-restricted, though states were instructed to offer higher rebates for low-income households.
There’s going to be a lot of variation between states regarding how much funding they dedicate to each income bracket. But there also may be some variation in the types of buildings that are eligible.
Maine has proposed dedicating 100% of the funding under the HOMES program and much of the funding under HEAR to multifamily buildings. For the HEAR program, it might also prioritize subsidizing heat pump retrofits in manufactured housing, formerly referred to as “mobile homes.” That means if you’re a single family homeowner in Maine, you probably won’t benefit from the program — although Maine already has extensive subsidies for single-family homes and has completed more than 100,000 heat pump retrofits since 2019.
“They're taking this funding to try and move beyond that section of housing and open up robust programs for areas where they still have really high need,” said Briscoe.
New Jersey has proposed a similar approach, dedicating 100% of HOMES funding and 85% of HEAR funding to multifamily buildings in low-income neighborhoods. The remaining 15% will go toward an existing state program called Comfort Partners that subsidizes energy efficiency measures to expand its offerings to heat pumps, electrical panels, wiring, and water heaters.
Sealed and Rewiring America are both working on tools to help consumers and contractors navigate all of this confusion. Frank told me Sealed was developing software for contractors that will help them determine customer eligibility and calculate total savings at the point of sale, and then process the rebate paperwork as quickly and easily as possible. Rewiring America is building what it intends to be a user-friendly calculator in which a homeowner will be able to enter their zip code and income and get information about all of the programs they are eligible for, including state, local, and utility-run offerings.
Or at least Californians are. Dozens have written to the California Energy Commission to ask when the rebates will be available, whether they will qualify, or to express their frustration with how long it’s taking to get the program up and running.
Consider the following comment submitted in April by Kristen Talley, a homeowner who wants to replace her gas furnace with an electric heat pump. “We’d hoped to do the project last fall … and we can’t proceed until the rebates are available,” she wrote. “Please establish criteria and make applications available NOW!!! It’s crazy that it's taken this long!”
Richard Pellin, a 77-year-old retiree who does not have enough income to qualify for the tax credits, wrote that he wants to install a new heat pump system so that he can have air conditioning. “We suffered badly last year from the summer heat … Waiting until the state programs are ready to issue rebates would cause us to suffer longer,” he said. He implored the commission to allow the rebates to be claimed retroactively, warning that otherwise there might be “a surge of activity when rebates are approved” that will tax supply chains and labor and cause further delays. (The Department of Energy has specified that the HEAR rebates cannot be claimed retroactively, but it may be possible for the HOMES rebates.)
Some of this frustration is misplaced. California submitted its application for the HEAR program in January and is waiting on the Department of Energy to approve it. In the meantime, it may even be possible that Talley and Pellin are eligible for existing California rebate programs, though discounts through those are significantly lower.
Another public comment from Richard Bailey had the subject line: “Time is of the essence.” Bailey warned that the rebates could be “canceled, denied, delayed, etc” if Trump was elected. “Much is at risk. Do not delay,” he wrote.
I asked Briscoe how much of a risk this was. She said it would require an act of Congress to cancel the programs — in other words, it’s not something Trump could do on day one. Even then, money that’s already been awarded to states cannot be clawed back. Fifteen states have already submitted their applications, and are expected to receive funding by the end of the year.
“Hopefully, we can get a lot of these applications in and processed before any new administration were to take over,” said Briscoe.
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The administration seems to be pursuing a “some of the above” strategy with little to no internal logic.
The Department of Energy justified terminating hundreds of congressionally-mandated grants issued by the Biden administration for clean energy projects last week (including for a backup battery at a children’s hospital) by arguing that they were bad investments for the American people.
“Following a thorough, individualized financial review, DOE determined that these projects did not adequately advance the nation’s energy needs, were not economically viable, and would not provide a positive return on investment of taxpayer dollars,” the agency’s press release said.
It’s puzzling, then, that the Trump administration is pouring vast government resources into saving aging coal plants and expediting advanced nuclear projects — two sources of energy that are famously financial black holes.
The Energy Department announced it would invest $625 million to “reinvigorate and expand America’s coal industry” in late September. Earlier this year, the agency also made $900 million available to “unlock commercial deployment of American-made small modular reactors.”
It’s hard to imagine what economic yardsticks would warrant funding to keep coal plants open. The cost of operating a coal plant in the U.S. has increased by nearly 30% since 2021 — faster than inflation — according to research by Energy Innovation. Driving that increase is the cost of coal itself, as well as the fact that the nation’s coal plants are simply getting very old and more expensive to maintain. “You can put all the money you want into a clunker, but at the end of the day, it’s really old, and it’s just going to keep getting more expensive over time, even if you have a short term fix,” Michelle Solomon, a program manager at Energy Innovation who authored the research, told me.
Keeping these plants online — even if they only operate some of the time— inevitably raises electricity bills. That’s because in many of the country’s electricity markets, the cost of power on any given day is determined by the most expensive plant running. On a hot summer day when everyone’s air conditioners are working hard and the grid operator has to tell a coal plant to switch on to meet demand, every electron delivered in the region will suddenly cost the same as coal, even if it was generated essentially for free by the sun or wind.
The Trump administration has also based its support for coal plants on the idea that they are needed for reliability. In theory, coal generation should be available around the clock. But in reality, the plants aren’t necessarily up to the task — and not just because they’re old. Sandy Creek in Texas, which began operating in 2013 and is the newest coal plant in the country, experienced a major failure this past April and is now expected to stay offline until 2027, according to the region’s grid operator. In a report last year, the North American Electric Reliability Corporation warned that outage rates for coal plants are increasing. This is in part due to wear and tear from the way these plants cycle on and off to accommodate renewable energy sources, the report said, but it’s also due to reduced maintenance as plant operators plan to retire the facilities.
“You can do the deferred maintenance. It might keep the plant operating for a bit longer, but at the end of the day, it’s still not going to be the most efficient source of energy, or the cheapest source of energy,” Solomon said.
The contradictions snowball from there. On September 30, the DOE opened a $525 million funding opportunity for coal plants titled “Restoring Reliability: Coal Recommissioning and Modernization,” inviting coal-fired power plants that are scheduled for retirement before 2032 or in rural areas to apply for grants that will help keep them open. The grant paperwork states that grid capacity challenges “are especially acute in regions with constrained transmission and sustained load growth.” Two days later, however, as part of the agency’s mass termination of grants, it canceled more than $1.3 billion in awards from the Grid Deployment Office to upgrade and install new transmission lines to ease those constraints.
The new funding opportunity may ultimately just shuffle awards around from one coal plant to another, or put previously-awarded projects through the time-and-money-intensive process of reapplying for the same funding under a new name. Up to $350 million of the total will go to as many as five coal plants, with initial funding to restart closed plants or to modernize old ones, and later phases designated for carbon capture, utilization, and storage retrofits. The agency said it will use “unobligated” money from three programs that were part of the 2021 Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act: the Carbon Capture Demonstration Projects Program, the Carbon Capture Large-Scale Pilot Projects, and the Energy Improvements in Rural or Remote Areas Program.
In a seeming act of cognitive dissonance, however, the agency has canceled awards for two coal-fired power plants that the Biden administration made under those same programs. One, a $6.5 million grant to Navajo Transitional Energy Company, a tribal-owned entity that owns a stake in New Mexico’s Four Corners Generating Station, would have funded a study to determine whether adding carbon capture and storage to the plant was economically viable. The other, a $50 million grant to TDA Research that would have helped the company validate its CCS technology at Dry Fork Station, a coal plant in Wyoming, was terminated in May.
Two more may be out the window. A new internal agency list of grants labeled “terminate” that circulated this week included an $8 million grant for the utility Duke Energy to evaluate the feasibility of capturing carbon from its Edwardsport plant in Indiana, and $350 million for Project Tundra, a carbon capture demonstration project at the Milton R. Young Station in North Dakota.
“It’s not internally consistent,” Jack Andreason Cavanaugh, a global fellow at the Columbia University’s Carbon Management Research Initiative, told me. “You’re canceling coal grants, but then you’re giving $630 million to keep them open. You’re also investing a ton of time and money into nuclear — which is great, to be clear — but these small modular reactors haven’t been deployed in the United States, and part of the reason is that they’re currently not economically viable.”
The closest any company has come thus far to deploying a small modular reactor in the U.S. is NuScale, a company that planned to build its first-of-a-kind reactors in Idaho and had secured agreements to sell the power to a group of public utilities in Utah. But between 2015, when it was first proposed, and late 2023, when it died, the project’s budget tripled from $3 billion to more than $9 billion, while its scale was reduced from 600 megawatts to 462 megawatts. Not all of that was inevitable — costs rose dramatically in the final few years due to inflation. The reason NuScale ultimately pulled out of the project is that the cost of electricity it generated was going to be too high for the market to bear.
It’s unclear how heavily the DOE will weigh project financials in the application process for the $900 million for nuclear reactors. In its funding announcement, it specified that the awards would be made “solely based on technical merit.” The agency’s official solicitation paperwork, however, names “financial viability” as one of the key review criteria. Regardless, the Trump administration appears to recognize the value in funding first-of-a-kind, risky technologies when it comes to nuclear, but is not applying the same standards to direct air capture or hydrogen plants.
I asked the Department of Energy to share the criteria it used in the project review process to determine economic viability. In response, spokesperson Ben Dietderich encouraged me to read Wright’s memorandum describing the review process from May. The memo outlines what types of documentation the agency will evaluate to reach a decision, but not the criteria for making that decision.
Solomon agreed that advanced nuclear might one day meet the grid’s growing power needs, but not anytime soon. “Hopefully in the long term, this technology does become a part of our electricity system. But certainly relying on it in the short term has real risks to electricity costs,” she said. “And also reliability, in the sense that the projects might not materialize.”
The collateral damage from the Lava Ridge wind project might now include a proposed 285-mile transmission line initially approved by federal regulators in the 1990s.
The same movement that got Trump to kill the Lava Ridge wind farm Trump killed has appeared to derail a longstanding transmission project that’s supposed to connect sought-after areas for wind energy in Idaho to power-hungry places out West.
The Southwest Intertie Project-North, also known as SWIP-N, is a proposed 285-mile transmission line initially approved by federal regulators in the 1990s. If built, SWIP-N is supposed to feed power from the wind-swept plains of southern Idaho to the Southwest, while shooting electrons – at least some generated from solar power – back up north into Idaho from Nevada, Utah, and Arizona. In California, regulators have identified the line as crucial for getting cleaner wind energy into the state’s grid to meet climate goals.
But on Tuesday, SWIP-N suddenly faced a major setback: The three-person commission representing Jerome County, Idaho – directly in the path of the project – voted to revoke its special use permit, stating the company still lacked proper documentation to meet the terms and conditions of the approval. SWIP-N had the wind at its back as recently as last year, when LS Power expected it to connect to Lava Ridge and other wind farms that have been delayed by Trump’s federal permitting freeze on renewable energy. But now, the transmission line has stuttered along with this potential generation.
At a hearing Tuesday evening, county commissioners said Great Basin Transmission, a subsidiary of LS Power developing the line, would now suddenly need new input, including the blessing of the local highway district and potential feedback from the Federal Aviation Administration. Jerome County Commissioner Charles Howell explained to me Wednesday afternoon that there will still need to be formal steps remanding the permit, and the process will go back to local zoning officials. Great Basin Transmission will then at minimum need to get the sign-offs from local highway officials to satisfy his concerns, as well as those of the other commissioner who voted to rescind the permit, Ben Crouch.
The permit was many years old, and there are outstanding questions about what will happen next procedurally, including what Great Basin Transmission is actually able to do to fight this choice by the commissioners. At minimum, staff for the commission will write a formal decision explaining the reasoning and remand the permit. After that, it’ll be up to Great Basin Transmission to produce the documents that commissioners want. “Even our attorney and staff didn’t have those answers when we asked that after the vote,” Howell said, adding that he hopes the issues can be resolved. “I was on the county commission about when they decided where to site the towers, where to site the right-of-ways. That’s all been there a long time.”
This is the part where I bring up how Jerome County’s decision followed a months-long fight by aggrieved residents who opposed the SWIP-N line, including homeowners who say they didn’t know their properties were in the path of the project. There’s also a significant anti-wind undercurrent, as many who are fighting this transmission line previously fought LS Power’s Lava Ridge wind project, which was blocked by and executive order from President Donald Trump on his first day in office. Jerome County itself passed an ordinance in May requiring any renewable energy facility to get all federal, state, and local approvals before it would sign off on new projects.
Opposition to SWIP-N comes from a similar place as the “Stop Lava Ridge” campaign. Along with viewshed anxieties and property value impacts, SWIP-N, like Lava Ridge, would be within single-digit miles of the Minidoka National Historic Site, a former prison camp that held Japanese-Americans during World War II. In the eyes of its staunchest critics, constructing the wind farm would’ve completely damaged any impact of visiting the site by filling the surroundings of what is otherwise a serene, somber scene. Descendants of Minidoka detainees lobbied politicians at all levels to oppose Lava Ridge, a cause that was ultimately championed by Republican politicians in their fight against the project.
These same descendants of Japanese-American detainees have fought the transmission line, arguing that its construction would inevitably lead to new wind projects. “If approved, the SWIP-N line would enable LS Power and other renewable energy companies to build massive wind projects on federal land in and around Jerome County in future years,” wrote Dan Sakura, the son of a Minidoka prisoner, in a September 15 letter to the commission.
Sakura had been a leading voice in the fight against Lava Ridge. When I asked why he was weighing in on SWIP-N, he told me over text message, “The Lava Ridge wind project poisoned the well for renewable energy projects on federal land in Southern Idaho.”
LS Power did not respond to a request for comment.
It’s worth noting that efforts have already been made to avoid SWIP-N’s impacts to the Minidoka National Historic Site. In 2010, Congress required the Interior Secretary to re-do the review process for the transmission line, which at the time was proposed to go through the historic site. The route rejected by Jerome County would go around.
There is also no guarantee that wind energy will flock to southern Idaho any time soon. Yes, there’s a Trump permitting freeze, and federal wind energy tax credits are winding down. That’s almost certainly why the developers of small nuclear reactors have reportedly coveted the Lava Ridge site for future projects. But there’s also incredible hostility pent up against wind partially driven by the now-defunct LS Power project, for instance in Lincoln County, where officials now have an emergency moratorium banning wind energy while they develop a more permanent restrictive ordinance.
Howell made no bones about his own views on wind farms, telling me he prefers battery storage and nuclear power. “As I stand here in my backyard, if they put up windmills, that’s all I’m going to see for 40 miles,” he said
But Howell did confess to me that he thinks SWIP-N will ultimately be built – if the company is able to get these new sign-offs. What kind of energy flows through a transmission line cannot ultimately affect the decision on the special use permit because, he said, “there are rules.” On top of that, Idaho is going to ultimately need more power no matter what, and at the very least, the state will have to get electrons from elsewhere.
Howell’s “non-political” answer to the fate of SWIP-N, as he put it to me, is that “We live on power, so we gotta have more power.”
The week’s most important news around renewable project fights.
1. Western Nevada — The Esmeralda 7 solar mega-project may be no more.
2. Washoe County, Nevada – Elsewhere in Nevada, the Greenlink North transmission line has been delayed by at least another month.
3. Oconto County, Wisconsin – Solar farm town halls are now sometimes getting too scary for developers to show up at.
4. Apache County, Arizona – In brighter news, this county looks like it will give its first-ever conditional use permit for a large solar farm, EDF Renewables’ Juniper Spring project.
5. Putnam County, Indiana – After hearing about what happened here this week, I’m fearful for any solar developer trying to work in Indiana.
6. Tippecanoe County, Indiana – Two counties to the north of Putnam is a test case for the impacts a backlash on solar energy can have on data centers.