Sign In or Create an Account.

By continuing, you agree to the Terms of Service and acknowledge our Privacy Policy

Electric Vehicles

Tesla’s Post-Election Stock Bump Has Vaporized

Can Musk pull another market miracle out of his MAGA hat?

•
A Tesla logo as a graph arrow.
Heatmap Illustration/Getty Images

It’s long been clear that Elon Musk’s primary talent is not dreaming up electric cars, reusable rockets, or tunnel-boring machines. It is reshaping reality in a way that always seems to keep Tesla’s stock price high, which made him the world’s richest man.

That stock price has been taking a beating of late. A groundswell of Tesla resentment has arisen since Musk hitched his wagon to Donald Trump and began dismantling the American government. Public rage has taken the form of protests, vandalized Superchargers, and, most importantly to the man himself, sliding sales of Tesla vehicles. All of this has combined to send the company’s market value tumbling this year, to the delight of Musk-haters everywhere eager to see his net worth implode. Its share price has fallen more than 5% today alone.

Even so, Musk carries on as Trump’s right-hand man as if his fortunes are immune from Tesla’s ups and downs. Could this time be different?

Tesla saw plenty of dark times during its march to EV dominance, such as the notorious “manufacturing hell” needed to bring the Model 3 to fruition. Likewise, there have been plenty of times when Tesla’s soaring stock valuation appeared to be untethered from its business reality — it became the world’s most valuable automaker while building only a tiny fraction as many cars as Toyota or General Motors.

The difference in those days was that Tesla — current profits and losses aside — was clearly on the rise. Overcoming that manufacturing problem, for example, allowed the EV-maker to build lots and lots of Model 3s and Model Ys and put it on the path to worldwide electric car dominance. Today that upward trajectory is not so clear. Tesla sales in the U.S. plateaued last year even before Elon’s misadventures with MAGA. This year, sales in Europe and Australia are in freefall, seemingly in response to Musk’s embrace of the far right. Tesla is down 71% this quarter in Germany and Australia.

It would be easier for Tesla to cast this dip as a blip if something new and exciting were waiting right over the horizon. But the only new vehicle to arrive since 2020 is the Cybertruck, the metallic embodiment of Musk’s conversion on the road to Mar-a-Lago. The brand’s biggest hope for improving sales is the recently revealed redesign of the Model Y, code-named “Juniper,” which follows a similar update to the Model 3.

The company’s future is pegged not to any new EV with widespread appeal, but rather to the notion that Tesla will solve autonomous driving and dominate the next automotive era with its Cybercab and similar self-driving vehicles. Whether Musk will actually win the future is beside the point. What it achieves in the present is freeing Musk from being judged on hard sales numbers like an ordinary car company CEO and keeping him in the character of visionary innovator, able to keep his stock price afloat through his own genius.

That doesn’t mean Musk can dismiss the power of dollars and cents with a wave of his hand. Investors are once again furious with the CEO for taking a ketamine-powered journey into the abyss rather than trying to build Tesla’s business in a practical way. And even if he can keep their anger at bay, a sales tumble really is a multi-pronged problem for Tesla.

For one thing, Musk’s political machinations have cost him all the market gains he earned via Trump’s electoral victory. Tesla’s valuation soared from around $800 billion to $1.5 trillion in December, when it became clear the CEO would become the president-elect’s right hand man. Since that moment, the company’s value has fallen by more than $600 million, effectively erasing the bump in Tesla’s market cap.

Still, Tesla — and Musk by extension — remains incredibly valuable. The carmaker’s true concern is that a big drop in sales could be a double-whammy for Tesla revenue. Recall that the company’s most reliable revenue stream is not really its sales of electric cars, but rather the carbon credits generated by those EVs under California’s auto emissions regulatory scheme, which it can sell to other automakers who’ve yet to meet their emissions targets. Even as Tesla’s reputation foundered in 2024, its revenue stream from selling credits reached $2.76 billion, up 50% from 2023.

That stream of free money helps to stabilize Tesla’s balance sheet in times of trouble. It is not inevitable. If automakers like Stellantis got their act together and started to sell a high volume of low-emissions vehicles, they’d need to buy fewer credits from Tesla. Tesla’s tumbling sales in the wake of Musk’s antics could reduce the amount of credits it could sell to others, since the credits are tied to sales of low-emissions vehicles. And it’s not out of the question that Musk’s political ally, President Trump, could attack the carbon market as part of his offensive against EVs, which could eliminate this revenue stream for Tesla. (If this seems unlikely, consider that Musk pursued this alliance knowing full well that Trump campaigned on eliminating federal tax credits for EVs that benefit Tesla buyers.)

Even with this dire financial picture, it’d be foolish to bet against Musk. The man has overcome more harrowing market conditions — and that was before America’s unelected chief consultant managed to entrench himself as Hand of the King. But seeing his supply of easy money wither because of his political stances might be just the thing to hit the man where it hurts.

Red

You’re out of free articles.

Subscribe to access Heatmap's exclusive climate and energy polling, award-winning journalism, and subscriber-only events, now just $99 $79.20/year.
To continue reading
Create a free account or sign in to unlock more free articles.
or
Please enter an email address
By continuing, you agree to the Terms of Service and acknowledge our Privacy Policy
Politics

John Podesta Says Permitting Deal Hands Trump ‘a Loaded Howitzer’

It should only pass if lawmakers disarm a key provision, the former Biden senior climate adviser says.

John Podesta.
Heatmap Illustration/Getty Images

Former Biden senior climate adviser John Podesta wants lawmakers to take a red pen to the bipartisan permitting deal.

Podesta criticized a key part of the Senate’s bipartisan permitting deal on Friday, according to a recording I obtained of a fireside chat at the University of Colorado Boulder. He praised the bill’s transmission reforms, but argued Democratic negotiators had handed President Trump “a loaded Howitzer” in their quest for permitting certainty for renewable energy projects, and that it should only pass if lawmakers remove the weapon.

Keep reading...Show less
Blue
Electric Vehicles

The Ford Fathom Will Bring Bi-Directional Charging to the Masses

Ford reveals a promising tidbit about its upcoming electric pickup.

The Ford logo.
Heatmap Illustration/Getty Images

When the Ford Fathom debuts in 2027, much of the attention will focus on its size and its price. As it should: The all-electric mid-size truck is promised to start under $30,000, and the success or failure of that car at that price will tell us a lot about the future of Ford, as well as mainstream America’s true appetite for EVs.

While we wait for our first real look at the truck and the full list of its specifications, Ford just revealed a promising tidbit. The automaker has been working in the background to make it simpler and cheaper for Fathom drivers to use bidirectional charging: the ability for power to flow both ways so that EV drivers can use the energy stored in the vehicle battery to power secondary loads, to back up a home power supply during a blackout, or even to feed back onto the power grid.

Keep reading...Show less
Blue
AM Briefing

A New Gas Goliath

On Petrobras’ election hangover, wind’s tailwinds, and Indian solar

Natural gas pipelines.
Heatmap Illustration/Getty Images

Current conditions: Tropical Storm Olana is headed for Hawaii with yet more flooding and powerful winds as the state continues to recover from previous storms • Tropical Cyclone Arnab is strengthening into a “severe” storm as it approaches the northern coast of India’s Andhra Pradesh state near the port city of Visakhapatnam • In-fa has become a typhoon, en route by the end of this week to the Northern Mariana Islands, the U.S. territory that took the brunt of this month’s Super Typhoon Champi.


THE TOP FIVE

1. What worries Anthropic

Call it Anthropic’s magnum Opus 5.5. The Claude maker filed its public paperwork Monday ahead of its planned stock market debut. Aside from the basic details of how the company makes money and what risks its technology may pose to humanity itself, Anthropic mentions the word “energy” at least 14 times in the section of the document outlining the risks to its business. “Climate” and “climate change” are mentioned just four times. The overarching concern, per my colleague Matthew Zeitlin’s rundown of the S-1 filing, is that the company “might not get enough power for data centers running its large language models,” and that “the pace of the energy infrastructure build-out “is generally behind the need.

Keep reading...Show less
Blue