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On Chinese nuclear, Kenyan geothermal, and American hydropower

Current conditions: A wildfire dubbed the Max Road Fire in the Everglades has torched more than 5,000 acres of the treasured Florida wetlands • Contrary to its name, Argentina’s Tierra del Fuego is bracing for light snow today at the southern tip of the Americas • An unseasonable cold snap is bringing morning frost temperatures to the Upper Midwest and Northeast.
Last week, Indiana extended its suspension of the state sales tax on gasoline for another 30 days and temporarily paused the state tax on gas, dropping prices by an average of $0.59 per gallon. On Monday, Kentucky’s temporary $0.10 reduction in gas taxes takes effect. Now the White House is considering replicating the idea on the national level. In an interview Monday morning with CBS News, President Donald Trump proposed suspending the federal gas tax “for a period of time.” Calling it a “great idea,” he said “when gas goes down, we’ll let it phase back in.” Gas prices have soared by an average of 50% since the start of the Iran War exactly 73 days ago. Prices hit a high on Sunday of over $4.52 per gallon, according to AAA data. But suspending excise taxes of more than $0.18 per gallon on gas and $0.24 on diesel requires legislation from Congress. That could be tricky. Pausing the tax would cost the federal government roughly $500 million per week. But lawmakers from both parties have already proposed bills that could do just that, including one Senator Josh Hawley, the Republican from Missouri, introduced on Monday.
The biggest natural gas-producing region in the United States isn’t in Texas. It isn’t in the oil-rich Dakotas either. It’s abutting the densely populated Northeast, in Pennsylvania’s Marcellus Shale. Yet neighboring New England is the country’s largest destination for liquified natural gas imports arriving by tanker. Why bring in costly gas, often produced overseas, to the deepwater port in Massachusetts Bay, when American-made molecules are drilled just a few hundred miles away? Because, as Heatmap’s Matthew Zeitlin has previously reported, there isn’t enough pipeline infrastructure to affordably pump gas from Pennsylvania into New York or New England, thanks in large part to policies from Democratic governors to halt pipeline infrastructure in the name of fighting climate change, even as the Northeast’s dependence on gas-fired electricity grew. That may soon change. Williams Companies broke ground on a new gas pipeline expansion in New York last month. Now the Calgary-based pipeline giant Enbridge is planning to extend the Algonquin Gas Transmission line, the company told the Trump administration’s National Energy Dominance Council, according to unnamed official cited by E&E News. It’s unclear when more details are due out, but Democratic governors that previously opposed pipelines are already signaling an openness to the infrastructure.
Oil exports from Alaska, meanwhile, are increasing as Asian buyers seek options for crude that don’t rely on passing the still mostly closed Strait of Hormuz. On Monday evening, Northern Journal reported that two tankers had departed the Alaskan port of Valdez for Asia in recent weeks. That’s the same number of crude shipments to Asia in all of 2025.
Another day, another large-scale Hualong One reactor begins construction in China. Crews poured the first major concrete for the fourth reactor at the Taipingling nuclear plant in Huizhou, in China’s southern Guangdong province. It’s the fourth of six Hualong Ones, Beijing’s flagship gigawatt-scale pressurized water reactor, planned at the site. Russia, meanwhile, remains so determined to move forward on international exports of its own gigawatt-sized pressurized water reactors that the Kremlin’s state-owned nuclear company, Rosatom, has said it’s still constructing the second two units at Iran’s first and only atomic power station, despite the ongoing conflict with the U.S. and Israel.
While at least two companies have broken ground on new commercial reactors in the U.S. in recent weeks, the U.S. industry’s most recent headlines offer a different snapshot of where the American atom is at. TerraPower, the Bill Gates-founded next-generation reactor developer that just began construction on its first power plant in Wyoming, has joined other nuclear startups in the race to generate early revenue by manufacturing and selling rare medical isotopes. Back in March, I broke news in this newsletter that the reactor startup Oklo had earned its first Nuclear Regulatory Commission license for a medical isotope facility. Now TerraPower is constructing its first medical isotope plant at a laboratory in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. At the other end of the U.S. industry, Fermi America, the startup founded by former Texas Governor Rick Perry to build a record-breaking data center complex powered by a series of giant Westinghouse AP1000 reactors, is scrambling to save itself from total collapse following the firing of its chief executive officer. In a bid to avert disaster, the company’s second-largest shareholder, the investment firm Caddis Capital, told NucNet it supports Fermi’s attempt to turn things around.
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The Department of the Interior’s Bureau of Land Management will hold a lease auction for geothermal developers seeking federal land in New Mexico next month. The auction will cover 68 parcels spanning more than 197,000 acres across five counties of a state rich in hot rocks and eager to harvest more energy from underground. So far, the AI-enhanced geothermal startup Zanskar owns a site in New Mexico, and the next-generation company XGS Energy is planning its own 150-megawatt project. The lease sale will take place on June 16 for an hour starting at 10 a.m. ET, per Think GeoEnergy. The auction comes just three months after a new bipartisan bill to boost geothermal was introduced in Congress, as Matthew reported at the time.
Even in countries where the geothermal industry is well developed and generates much of the grid’s electricity, there are limits to how much hot rocks can meet surging demand from data centres. Microsoft had planned to build a $1 billion data center in Kenya to tap into the East African nation’s vast geothermal power network. But this week, Kenyan President William Ruto suspended the deal, which also included the United Arab Emirates-based AI firm G42, over concern that the gigawatt of electricity the data center would demand would devour more than a third of the country’s entire power supply.

Less than a year since the bipartisan Build More Hydro bill stalled in the House after passing the Senate in a unanimous vote, roughly 100 megawatts of hydroelectric capacity have been put on hold, and another 36 megawatts have been forced into limbo. Even more of the U.S. fleet is rapidly approaching a relicensing cliff in the coming years, with an uncertain future as the nation’s oldest and most reliable renewable plants suffer under a byzantine regulatory process that makes dam owners actually envy the notoriously heavily-regulated nuclear sector. Things just got slightly easier for a handful of U.S. hydroelectric plants. On Monday, Trump signed legislation directing the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission to extend construction deadlines for roughly three dozen stations delayed due to the pandemic and supply chain shortages.
“Today’s law is a breakthrough that delivers 2,600 megawatts of clean hydropower and $6.5 billion in private investment critical to powering American homes, businesses, and industries,” Malcolm Woolf, the president of the National Hydropower Association, said in a statement.
Offshore wind may be moving forward in Virginia, but the Trump administration’s assault on the sector has spurred a major waterfront development in Norfolk to pivot away from the seaward turbines and instead double down on shipbuilding. The shift, reported in The Virginian-Pilot, comes after the Trump administration yanked Biden-era funding meant to support the industry. But Richmond isn’t abandoning offshore wind. As I told you the other week, Governor Abigail Spanberger just signed a bill meant to support training and expansion of the state’s offshore wind workforce.
Editor’s note: This story has been updated to correct the location of Terrapower’s isotope plant.
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The Iran war has been a gift to the country’s vehicle, solar, and battery business.
This is Heatmap Daily, a weekday evening digest written by our executive editor.
Happy Monday and welcome back. For months now, we’ve been talking about how the U.S. and Israel’s war in Iran has been a boon for electric vehicles, clean energy, and (unfortunately) coal.
But today we got data that confirms: This clean energy export boom is not just a side story. It is one of the brighter spots in the overall Chinese economy, which remains the world’s second largest.
According to economic data released on Monday, China grew 4.5% during the summer quarter as compared to the quarter from a year earlier. That means the country will likely hit its growth target this year, albeit on the low end.
The country’s economic expansion wasn’t driven by domestic consumption, however. Consumer confidence remains low, and residential investment has yet to return after the property crash earlier this decade.
Instead, booming exports are now driving China’s economy. Exports were more than 36% higher in September than a year earlier, driven by chips, ships, electric vehicles, and solar panels and batteries. The country will likely record its biggest trade surplus ever this year.
Some of those categories are clearly flourishing thanks to the global AI boom — think chips and even batteries. But the preponderance of vehicle exports suggests surging oil prices aren’t hurting. Sales of ‘new energy vehicles,’ a category that includes 100% electric vehicles and plug-in hybrids, were up more than 13% on a year-over-year basis in September, according to the Chinese car manufacturer’s trade group. But exports of these vehicles are booming. Battery electric vehicles were up 130% last month compared to the same period in 2025, and plug-in hybrid exports were up more than 200%.
It’s interesting to consider how much the Chinese and U.S. economy are mirroring each other at this moment. Americans are dealing with a remarkable investment boom, which is buoying the labor market and stubbornly maintaining high inflationary pressure. China is struggling with deflation, and exports are its quickest path to growth. (Consumer sentiment in both countries, interestingly, seems to be in the doldrums, even though American consumers appear to be in much better shape.)
When thinking about what artificial intelligence could do for the United States over the next decade, some subject-matter prognosticators (and even some Anthropic employees) imagine a world of 4%, 5%, or even 7% GDP growth. Such a growth rate is difficult even to envision in the modern era, of course, and it seems like it could propel the U.S. economy to staggering prosperity.
I know better than to make a prediction about where we’re headed. But amateur economic commentators should keep China in mind, too: a country that dominates along many technological axes, but where the standard economic math of supply, demand, and consumer sentiment still holds. Except if the United States economy were to stumble, no exterior source of demand will come to our rescue.
Endurance Energy hoped its generator would run for a full year, but the team isn’t afraid of the “error” in “trial and error.”
About 300 miles off the Oregon coast, a mile beneath the ocean’s surface, a startup just drilled the world’s first subsea geothermal well. And for a grand total of exactly 8.7 seconds, its prototype power plant generated about 2 kilowatts of net power. It wasn’t quite the result the Seattle-based Endurance Energy was hoping for — the company’s goal was to run its 100-kilowatt generator for a full year. But it’s not nothing.
“We really proved with this mission that a geothermal well could be drilled and completed on the seafloor, and doing that within 21 months of the company existing I think is really a testament to our pace of progress,” Endurance CEO Andrew Redd told me.
A former SpaceX engineer — as so many climate tech founders seem to be — Redd appears quite comfortable with the rapid trial-and-error cycles that hard tech startups often demand. Or as he stated in the company’s press release, which provides a refreshingly frank account of what this first test did and didn’t accomplish, “We follow the adage ‘make it exist, then make it good.’”
Investors seem to be buying it. In June, the startup raised a $54 million Series A, led by Peter Thiel’s Founders Fund — Endurance’s second funding round in less than two years of existence. Still, the team certainly has their work cut out for them. The ocean is a notoriously difficult operating environment: Saltwater is corrosive and offshore infrastructure is difficult and expensive to build, maintain, and repair.
Indeed, Endurance spent the first 11 days of its three-week stint at sea debugging its drill, which the team had never operated underwater before. But with a vessel chartered and a locked-in deployment date, the company couldn’t afford to wait for everything to work out perfectly. “We were still working on that generator hours before it got on the seafloor,” Redd told me. He’s used to that sort of thing, though, comparing it to making final tweaks to rockets already sitting on the launchpad. “That’s kind of the name of the game,” he said.
The trial took place at Axial Seamount, an active underwater volcano and the only place in the world with a cluster of hydrothermal vents connected to shore by fiber optic cable, which allows the Endurance team to monitor and control its system in real time from Seattle. While this was the company’s fifth deep-sea mission, it was the team’s first attempt to actually drill their own well.
After lowering their drill about a mile below the surface, the team bored two holes and turned the second into a well about 2 inches wide, lining it with pipe and sealing it with cement. But after losing so much time to debugging, the team only managed to drill about 52 feet deep — far short of its original 200-foot target.
Water then flowed up the well at about 260 degrees Celsius (around 500 degrees Fahrenheit), but the narrow borehole proved too restrictive to deliver enough heat for the generator to operate. So the team pivoted, connecting the generator directly to a naturally flowing, hotter hydrothermal vent instead. The generator then ran for a total of 29 seconds, producing about 2 kilowatts of net power for 8.7 seconds. That represents the total electricity the turbine generated, minus the 7 to 8 kilowatts needed to run its supporting components, such as the refrigerant pump and other onboard equipment.
Then a software glitch triggered the onboard battery safety system, which shut down the plant. When the team tried to restart the system, the power cable feeding the refrigerant pump failed, leaving the pump unable to restart. That was the end of the road. The mission wrapped up after three weeks at sea, a far shorter run than the team had hoped.
“The success criteria would be if we had left with the generator still on the seafloor; that would have been an example of sustained net power, and we didn’t get there,” Redd told me. Instead, the team brought the system back to Endurance’s Seattle headquarters, where it’s fixing the software as well as refurbishing and upgrading the hardware — which includes changing how it builds and tests subsea cables — to prepare for another mission sometime this winter. This time, the goal will be to generate sustained power from a much deeper well.
The team will need to demonstrate progress soon to keep its next major milestone on track: a planned 2-megawatt deployment off the coast of Tonga by the end of 2027. The project aims to supply electricity directly to the Tongan grid, which today is heavily dependent on expensive, imported diesel. Redd expects subsea geothermal to be cost-competitive with that fuel in this first pilot.
Getting there, however, is a formidable engineering challenge. While it’s long been a subject of academic curiosity, no one prior to Endurance had ever drilled an offshore geothermal well before, meaning the team can’t simply transplant existing land-based technology to the seafloor. “Every component that you would use terrestrially now needs to be either modified or built completely from scratch,” Redd explained. “And so you multiply that across every component required to make these kinds of infrastructure projects happen, and it’s a lot of work.”
No kidding. But if Endurance can pull it off, Redd sees this resource as “the perfect energy source for the future.” A conference paper presented by the geoscience company Viridien last year estimates that offshore geothermal resources worldwide could yield about 6 terawatts of recoverable electric power — nearly twice the world’s current continuous electricity output.
“We can access terawatts of power. There’s no fuel. We can site next to extremely large cities around the Pacific. We have no surface presence,” Redd said, ticking off the advantages. Plus, the three necessary ingredients for a high-quality geothermal well — permeable rock, high heat, and water — are widely accessible offshore, he added. Eventually, he expects subsea geothermal to undercut natural gas in Endurance’s target markets: electricity grids, industrial facilities, and data centers across the Pacific Islands, the U.S. West Coast, and Northeast Asia, all of which sit along the undersea volcanic zone known as the “Ring of Fire.”
The way Redd sees it, advances in subsea technology pioneered by the offshore wind, oil, and gas industries have cleared much of the technological path to making underwater geothermal a viable clean energy resource. In his view, what’s been missing is simply the ambition to chase the opportunity in the private market. SpaceX, he said, really proved what’s possible for a scrappy startup to achieve.
“It is quite new at industrial scale for a small company with a bunch of fairly young people to go after something like this,” he told me. “Before SpaceX went to launch a rocket as a private company, no one thought you could get to orbit as a private company. And so that has really seeded this ambition.”
On Greenland’s deepsea mining ban, Indonesia floating nuclear, and a solar boom
Current conditions: Hurricane Trudy has weakened from its peak as a Category 2 storm but still threatens up to 8 inches of rain as it swirls off Baja California • A nor’easter is howling through the Mid-Atlantic this week, hammering the coast with winds of up to 70 miles per hour • A humid overcast has settled over Paris this week as French authorities struggle to regain control after protests over living costs gave way to anarchic riots.
At least 47 major data center projects have been delayed, withdrawn, or blocked so far this year, according to data the regulatory intelligence service RegLayer shared with the Financial Times — and that may be a “conservative estimate.” Just 35% of planned data centers are “credible,” analysts told the newspaper, as more than 1,000 communities across the United States now have restrictions on artificial intelligence infrastructure. The data comes as investors look increasingly jittery about AI following ChatGPT-maker OpenAI’s missing a key revenue metric this year.
Those findings stand in contrast with the numbers from our data service, Heatmap Pro. Based on our research, at least 107 projects faced cancellation so far this year, putting 2026 on track to beat last year, which saw 108 proposals nixed.
Unless you’re living off the grid and away from any social media (if so, I’m jealous), then you can probably surmise that not-in-my-backyard opposition prevails in many such cases against proposed data centers. That makes selling would-be neighbors on the projects critical. New polling by the advocacy group GoodPower found that a binding promise to protect local electricity rates boosts support for the projects upward by as much as 14 points. Such a pledge worked primarily on the 78% of voters who distrust data centers. Another potential winner: Pair a data center with renewables. At least 46% of respondents to the poll said their support would increase if a project were powered by renewables. The survey spoke to 2,610 registered voters last month and oversampled in states with at least 200 data centers completed: Arizona, Georgia, Indiana, Pennsylvania, Texas, and Virginia.
Greenland wants to find ways to exploit its mineral riches in hopes of generating enough income from industries other than fishing and tourism to eventually wean off subsidies from the governments of Denmark and the European Union. Earlier this month, as you may recall, the self-governing Danish island gave a project the green light. But the government in Nuuk doesn’t want miners harvesting metals from the seabed surrounding the Arctic island, which are fertile fishing grounds and could, in theory, lead to mineral production without meaningful infrastructure to create jobs for Greenlandic people. Last week, the Greenlandic Parliament adopted a resolution requiring the government to draft legislation banning deep-sea mining. All members present voted to approve the proposal, according to Sermitsiaq, a leading newspaper in Nuuk. The ban would, if adopted, last until the end of 2029, with the possibility of an extension for two years at a time.
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Long before the race for small modular reactors kicked off, Russia launched a floating nuclear power station and sailed the vessel up to the Arctic to power a small town. Now, as you may recall, the state-owned Russian nuclear company Rosatom is making plans to build more floating nuclear plants, and it has a major nuclear newcomer nation as an offtaker. Last week, NucNet reported, Rosatom announced a deal with Indonesia’s state-owned PT Pembangkit Listrik Nuklir to supply electricity to northern Indonesia from at least two floating nuclear plants with a capacity of 200 megawatts each.

Over the past decade, small-scale and rooftop solar systems increased from 18,812 gigawatt-hours to 92,979 gigawatt-hours, an increase of over 394%. That’s according to a new analysis from the Energy Information Administration, which found that California, Arizona, Texas, Florida are the regions with the most abundant solar resources. Even though the state has worse solar resources in general, New York ranked fifth as a result of growing capacity. Still, the rate of growth in generation has slowed over the past three years. l
The Trump administration is pulling out all the stops for Alaskans who want to drill and transport fossil fuels, mine minerals, and log trees. Now he’s easing rules on hunters. A new final rule from the National Park Service has revived a hunting method the Biden administration banned in 2024: Baiting bears with doughnuts soaked in bacon grease. Hunters use the baits to lure bears to close range before shooting them. “Some hunters prefer to use strong-smelling, high-calorie foods like pastries, doughnuts, meat scraps or fish remains to lure bears from miles away,” The New York Times reported. “But some conservationists say the practice is unethical and risks making the bears accustomed to human food, which could endanger people.”