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Plus AI for powering AI, low-carbon concrete, and more of the week’s big money moves.

This week has already brought a plethora of funding announcements. As my colleague Alexander C. Kaufman highlighted in our AM newsletter, these include $421 million in debt financing for the geothermal unicorn Fervo and a deal between Uber and Rivian that could see the former investing over $1.2 billion in the electric vehicle automaker to support the deployment of up to 50,000 autonomous robotaxis through 2031.
But beyond these headline-grabbing numbers, this week also brings a major offtake agreement for the Massachusetts-based critical minerals startup Nth Cycle, coinciding with the Trump administration’s $500 million push for domestic refining and recycling. There’s also new money for an AI platform for energy data, lower-carbon concrete, and carbon sequestering textiles.
A wave of critical minerals startups has been gaining momentum in the U.S., buoyed by the Trump administration’s push to onshore production in the name of national security. One of those companies, Nth Cycle, recently signed a $1.1 billion, 10-year binding offtake agreement to supply nickel and lithium to global commodities trader Trafigura. The scale of this deal — Trafigura has committed to buying 2,000 metric tons of nickel and 1,500 metric tons of lithium carbonate — underscores the growing geopolitical attraction of breaking away from the Chinese-dominated battery minerals supply chain.
Nth Cycle recovers metals such as nickel, copper, and cobalt from “black mass” — a processed mixture of materials from spent lithium-ion batteries — by dissolving it in a liquid electrolyte and pumping it through an electrochemical cell. Individually-tuned voltages drive specific metal ions to gain electrons and deposit as solid metals onto the electrode’s surface. Unlike large-scale traditional metal refineries, the startup says its smaller, modular system can be deployed at existing partner sites like recycling facilities or scrap handling locations, reducing the cost of refining by up to 70%.
This deal will support the company’s expansion into South Carolina and the Netherlands, where operations are expected to start in 2028. Nth Cycle first started commercial operations a year and a half ago at a facility in Ohio capable of producing 900 metric tons annually of a mixed-metal material that contains nickel and cobalt.
“Speed to power” is the name of the game these days as companies — data centers in particular — need all the help they can get bringing new electricity sources online. Halcyon, which bills itself as “the AI platform for energy,” helps address this issue by helping energy professionals navigate and interpret vast volumes of information from regulatory findings to utility data, enabling more efficient and informed decisionmaking across energy markets and policy landscapes.
This week, the company announced a $21 million Series A round, led by the software-focused climate tech firm Energize Capital, to expand its platform’s capabilities, source even more data, and expand its team. The startup’s AI tool was built and trained on a deep catalogue of energy data from regulators including state public utility commissions, independent system operators, regional transmission organizations, and the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, enabling users to query its sector-specific database as they would ChatGPT and track developments on particular questions.
“Despite representing as much as 10% of global GDP, multi-billion dollar energy investments are being made with opaque, incomplete, and fragmented information,” Bruce Falck, Halcyon’s co-founder and CEO, said in a company blog post about the new funding. “Halcyon makes complex and fragmented energy information discoverable, actionable, and valuable.” In addition to its main platform, the startup sells subscriptions to datasets such as its Gas Power Plant Tracker and New Substation Development Tracker, which can also inform data center citing decisions, for example.
The world produces roughly 30 billion metric tons of concrete annually, making it the most widely used man-made material on earth — and the source of about 8% of global CO2 emissions. That’s due to the energy-intensive production process of cement, the glue that holds the concrete mixture together. Now though, the London-based startup Cocoon Carbon promises to reduce the emissions intensity of concrete through the addition of industrial byproducts known as “supplementary cementitious materials,” raising a $15 million Series A to help scale production.
SCMs are nothing new — they’ve been a part of standard concrete mixes for decades due to their durability-enhancing properties. But today they’re largely sourced from the byproducts of coal plants and iron blast furnaces — technologies that are falling out of favor as natural gas and renewables scale and electric arc furnaces replace blast furnaces in the steel production process. That’s tightened the market for SCMs, causing prices to double since 2017, at the same time that construction is booming. To address this shortage, Cocoon has developed a rapid cooling system to convert steel slag residue from electric arc furnaces into a cement replacement that it says can reduce concrete emissions by up to 40%.
The startup says its ability to retrofit its system directly onto electric arc furnaces is crucial for cost-competitiveness, drawing a contrast with “other emerging alternatives to cement” — startups Brimstone and Sublime Systems come to mind — which it claims will carry the dreaded “green premium.” Cocoon is planning to use the new capital to build out its first commercial demonstration facility in the U.S., ultimately targeting deployment at 50 steel mills by 2035.
The fashion industry is slyly one of the world’s largest emitters, with textile production alone accounting for about 1.2 billion tons of annual carbon dioxide emissions — roughly equivalent to Germany, the U.K., and France’s annual emissions combined. But the materials company Rubi thinks it’s found a more sustainable approach to fashion, raising a $7.5 million seed round to support the production of textile fibers such as viscose and lyocell from captured carbon dioxide. The company has already piloted its process with partners such as Walmart, Reformation, and H&M, the latter of which also participated in this latest funding round.
To produce raw material for textiles, the company sources captured carbon from industrial flue gas and feeds it into its enzyme reactor, where a cascade of chemical reactions converts the CO2 into cellulose polymers. The resulting cellulose pulp is then recovered and supplied to Rubi’s partners, who spin it into fibers and yarns using existing textile manufacturing infrastructure. The startup’s approach differs from traditional fermentation and chemical methods, which rely on either microbes like yeast or fossil-derived feedstocks such as natural gas to produce polymers, systems the startup says are less efficient, more emissions intensive, and costlier than its own.
Rubi plans to use this latest funding to develop an industrial demonstration system capable of producing commercial quantities of its materials for its growing customer base, from which it’s already secured $60 million in non-binding offtake agreements. While clothing brands are Rubi’s first customers, the company plans to expand into other industries such as consumer packaged goods, aerospace, and chemicals.
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Plus a startup harvesting energy from roadways nabs a new funding round and more of the week’s big money moves.
Uncertainty may have dried up venture funding for early stage climate, but that doesn’t mean there aren’t still deals getting done — or past commitments now coming to light as funding rounds close. This week, for example, brings early-stage backing for a European startup working to convert wasted kinetic energy from braking vehicles into power at ports, as well as a software company helping utilities visualize and manage the increasingly complex electrical grid. Meanwhile, nuclear company Deep Fission proved that the private markets aren’t the only game in town — after going public via SPAC, it’s now planning to list its shares on the Nasdaq stock exchange.
There’s also some promising news for companies looking to scale up, with thermal battery company Antora turning on its first commercial plant in South Dakota this week. That project was made possible in large part by backing from one Australian billionaire. But there’s also S2G Investments, which last week closed a $1 billion fund focused on growth-stage companies and will perhaps help more climate technologies reach that critical commercial milestone.
Every day, hundreds of millions of vehicles travel the world’s roads, converting fuel into motion and exerting mechanical force on the roads’ surface. Much of that kinetic energy is shed as heat when a vehicle throws on the brakes to navigate curves, intersections, ramps, and traffic signals. Austria-based startup REPS plans to capture some of that wasted energy, raising $23.6 million to “turn roads into power plants” by embedding hydraulic plates into road surfaces in braking zones, converting a vehicle’s momentum into clean electricity.
The mechanism is straightforward: As cars and trucks drive over the plates, they compress hydraulic cylinders built into the system, generating pressure that drives an onsite generator. The resulting electricity is routed to on-site battery storage systems, where it’s put to use powering on-site operations or feeding directly back into the local grid, turning high-traffic roads, ports, industrial sites, and other logistics hubs into their own small power sources. The company claims that capturing the energy lost through traffic could account for about 5% of global electricity demand, at least in theory.
REPS isn’t the first to attempt this form of so-called "energy harvesting,” but it says past efforts have failed due to the inferior efficiency and durability of existing mechanical energy converters. The company says its proprietary system, however, can operate for over 20 years. It’s already got one commercial system up and running in the Port of Hamburg, and says that if it were to install hundreds of such systems around the port, costs could be recovered in under four years. Now the startup is engaging with ports around the world and looking to build installations in other logistics hubs and cities.
At the end of last year, I identified Deep Fission, a startup looking to build small nuclear reactors inside underground, water-filled boreholes, as one of the wackiest recent bets in climate tech. Now the company has announced plans to go public at a target valuation of roughly $1.7 billion, seeking to raise $156 million in the process. Its thesis is that placing car-sized, 15-megawatt reactors about a mile underground could dramatically reduce both costs and safety risks. The surrounding rock would effectively serve as a natural barrier and containment vessel, negating the need for many of the bulky structures typically required to house reactors and prevent radioactive leaks.
The planned Nasdaq listing comes less than a year after the company’s somewhat unusual SPAC merger, which listed Deep Fission on the lesser-known and lightly traded OTCQB stock exchange and netted just $30 million. According to an SEC filing, the stock never actually traded, and at the time of the offering, it read as a quick attempt to secure cash. The startup had been attempting to raise a $15 million seed round earlier in the year that never panned out, and to date has raised only a modest $4 million in venture funding.
Deep Fission’s fortunes might be shifting, however, given that it’s transferring its listing to a major national exchange. The company’s public markets strategy does appear to be working as of late — In February, the startup raised $80 million by selling over 5 million restricted shares directly to investors. Whether this will all be enough to achieve its goal of beginning commercial operations in 2027 or 2028 remains to be seen, however. As a part of the Department of Energy’s Reactor Pilot Program, Deep Fission initially aimed to reach criticality — the point at which a nuclear chain reaction becomes self-sustaining — by this July, a target that now looks highly unlikely.
As utilities scramble to keep pace with surging electricity demand, expanding grid-scale renewables, increasingly extreme weather while also coordinating new, distributed resources coming online, modern grid management is getting too complex for traditional software to keep up. Texture, the startup billing itself “the operating system for the energy grid,” wants to simplify the ecosystem by giving utilities, virtual power plant operators, and grid service companies a unified view of every device and associated data sources across their network — and it just raised a $12.5 million Series A to scale this solution further.
Texture’s software aggregates data from various sources — everything from smart meters to battery storage systems, electric vehicles, and smart thermostats — and consolidates it into a single layer for grid operators, flagging problems such as voltage irregularities or outage risks in real time. The platform sits atop an operator’s legacy software infrastructure, thus avoiding the need for utilities to overhaul their existing systems or implement customized and expensive enterprise solutions that require dedicated engineering teams to maintain.
The tech has gained traction among utility cooperatives — customer-owned nonprofits that often serve rural communities and maintain smaller staffs and tighter budgets than investor-owned utilities. With this latest raise, the startup is looking to access greater scale in the co-op market through a partnership with the National Rural Telecommunications Cooperative, a network of 850 utility cooperatives across the country which will now gain access to some of Texture’s software. As Texture’s CEO Sanjiv Sanghavi said about its co-op customers in the company’s press release, "They wanted to run modern grid programs but didn't have software built for their scale or budget. A co-op serving 15,000 members shouldn't have to build custom technology to launch a battery program or manage transformer load. We built Texture so they don't have to."
I was off last week, which means I missed the chance to bring you a piece of news that I’m particularly excited about: The sustainability-focused firm S2G Investments closed a $1 billion fund in what managing partner Aaron Rudberg described in a post on the firm’s website as “one of the most difficult fundraising environments in over a decade.” What’s more, this fund is specifically designed to help growth-stage companies bridge the persistent capital gap that emerges for climate tech companies after early-stage venture rounds but before institutional investors deem them bankable. This void often prevents startups from building first-of-a-kind facilities or deploying their solutions broadly enough to prove out their tech and drive down costs.
This fund is also a milestone for S2G itself, marking the firm’s first close after spinning off two years ago from Builder’s Vision, a family office managing investments for Walmart heir Lukas Walton. According to Rudberg, the fund is writing checks in the $25 million to $100 million range, and has already invested $300 million across 10 companies, largely in food and agriculture, energy, and ocean systems. The various recipients include the agricultural input startup Exacto, maritime battery supplier Echandia, and the industrial power optimization company ANA, Inc.
So-called missing middle financing is difficult precisely because it often involves technologies that, at least initially, carry a green premium or depend on policy support. But S2G is adamant that there are plenty of competitive startups, even in a political environment where climate policy is on the outs and affordability is a top concern.
“We believe some of the most attractive investment opportunities are in growth-stage businesses that deliver economic superiority through improved efficiency, margins, and resilience in industries fundamental to the global economy,” Rudberg wrote, as companies with unfavorable economics are being weeded out. “What remains are businesses with genuine commercial advantage, and those are the companies this Fund is built to back.”
Bonus: Antora Turns On Colossal 5 Gigawatt-Hour Thermal Battery in South Dakota
Over two years ago, I wrote about how super hot rocks — that is, thermal batteries — were one of the coolest things in climate tech. Since then, the companies I profiled, Rondo Energy and Antora Energy, have both brought their first commercial plants online, with the latter reaching that milestone this week. On Tuesday, as we covered in Heatmap AM, Antora turned on its 5 gigawatt-hour project in South Dakota, which stores excess wind power as heat for a bioethanol plant operated by POET, the world’s largest biofuel producer. Once the facility ramps to full capacity later this year, it will rank among the world’s largest energy storage projects, relying on over 200 of Antora’s thermal batteries.
Antora’s tech works by absorbing surplus wind power that would otherwise go to waste in windy South Dakota, where generation often outpaces what the region’s congested transmission lines can handle. The startup converts that renewable electricity to heat using resistive heating, essentially the same technology as a toaster. That’s then stored in insulated carbon blocks for later use, where it can be delivered as direct heat to power high-temperature industrial processes, or converted back into electricity. In this case, the heat is transferred to a circulating fluid that carries it to the POET plant, where it’s then delivered as steam to power boilers, distillers, and other machinery used in ethanol production.
Neither POET nor Antora have disclosed the value of this long-term offtake agreement. The sole external investor providing project-level financing was Australian firm Grok Ventures, a climate-focused investment company bankrolled by Mike Cannon-Brookes, co-founder and CEO of enterprise software company Atlassian. One of Australia’s richest people, Cannon-Brookes has emerged as one of world’s foremost climate investors, pledging $1.5 billion of his wealth to climate projects by 2030. Perhaps its telling of the investment environment at large that an Australian billionaire — rather than the U.S. government or institutional investors — had to push this first-of-a-kind project over the finish line.
On Exxon’s Venezuela flipflop, SpaceX’s fears, and a nuclear deal spree
Current conditions: U.S. government forecasters project just one to three major storms in the Atlantic this hurricane season • The Meade Lake Complex, a wildfire that scorched 92,000 acres in southwest Kansas, is now largely contained • Temperatures in Vientiane, the sprawling capital of Laos, are nearing 100 degrees Fahrenheit amid a week of lightning storms.
A years-long megadrought. Reduced snowpack in the northern mountains. Rising water demand from southwestern farms and cities whose groundwater is depleting. It is no wonder the water levels in Lake Mead are getting low. Now the Trump administration is giving the Hoover Dam money for a makeover to make do in the increasingly parched new normal. The Great Depression-era megaproject in the Colorado River’s Black Canyon boasts the largest reservoir capacity among hydroelectric dams. But the facility’s actual output of electricity — already outpaced by six other dams in the U.S. — is set to plunge to a new low if drought-parched Lake Meade’s elevation drops below 1,035 feet, the level at which bubbles start to form damage the turbines. At that point, the dam’s output could drop from its lowest standard generating capacity of 1,302 megawatts to a meager 382 megawatts. Last night, federal data showed the water level perilously close to that boundary, at 1,052 feet. The Bureau of Reclamation’s $52 million injection will pay for the replacement of as many as three older turbines with new, so-called wide-head turbines, which are designed to operate efficiently at levels below 1,035 feet. Once installed, the agency expects to restore at least 160 megawatts of hydropower capacity. “This action ensures Hoover Dam remains a cornerstone of American energy production for decades to come,” Andrea Travnicek, the Interior Department’s assistant secretary for water and science, said in a statement.
Like geothermal, hydropower is a form of renewable energy that President Donald Trump appreciates, given its 24/7 output. Last month, the Department of Energy’s recently reorganized Hydropower and Hydrokinetic Office announced that it would allow nearly $430 million in payments to American hydropower facilities to move forward after stalling the funding for 293 projects at 212 facilities. Last year, the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission proposed streamlining the process for relicensing existing dams and giving the facilities a categorical exclusion from the National Environmental Policy Act. The Energy Department also withdrew from a Biden-era agreement to breach dams in the Pacific Northwest in a bid to restore the movement of salmon through the Columbia River.
Shortly after the U.S. capture of Venezuelan leader Nicolas Máduro in January, Exxon Mobil CEO Darren Woods told CNBC the South American nation would need to embark on a serious transition to democracy before the largest U.S. energy company could invest in production in a country the firm exited two decades ago amid the socialist government’s crackdown. Five months later, he may be changing his tune. On Thursday, The New York Times reported that Exxon Mobil was in talks to acquire rights to start drilling for oil in Venezuela. If finalized, such a deal would mark what the newspaper called “a victory for President Trump, who has declared the country’s vast natural wealth open to American businesses.”
It’s not just Elon Musk’s xAI data centers that brace for the data center backlash that Heatmap’s Jael Holzman clocked last fall as the thing “swallowing American politics.” In its S-1 filing to the Securities and Exchange Commission ahead of one of the country’s most anticipated stock market debuts this year, SpaceX warned that mounting public skepticism over AI could harm the growth of America’s leading private space firm. “If AI technologies are perceived to be significantly disruptive to society, it could lead to governmental or regulatory restrictions or prohibitions on their use, societal concerns or unrest, or both, any of which could materially and adversely affect our ability to develop, deploy, or commercialize AI technologies and execute our business strategy,” the company disclosed in the filing, a detail highlighted in a post on X by Transformer editor Shakeel Hashim. “Our implementation of AI technologies, including through our AI segment’s systems, could result in legal liability, regulatory action, operational disruption, brand, reputational or competitive harm, or other adverse impacts.”
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Yesterday, I told you that corporate energy buyers last year inked deals for more nuclear power than wind energy. But if you needed more proof that, as Heatmap’s Katie Brigham called last summer, “the nuclear dealmaking boom is real,” just look at this week:
Separately, this week saw two projects take big steps forward:
It’s been the year of Chinese automotives. Ford’s chief executive admits he can’t get enough of his Xiaomi SU7. Chinese auto exports are booming. And now Beijing’s ultimate automotive champion, BYD, is accelerating talks to enter Formula 1. On Thursday, the Financial Times reported that the company had met with former Red Bull Racing chief Christian Horner in Cannes. “Following talks between Stella Li, executive vice-president at BYD, and Horner last week, BYD intends to hold further meetings with senior figures involved in F1 and at the FIA, the governing body,” the newspaper reported.
China’s hydrogen boom continues. The country’s electrolyzers are quickly going the way of batteries and solar panels by securing global export deals that reflect their efficiency and competitive prices. On Thursday, Hydrogen Insight reported that Chinese manufacturer Sungrow Hydrogen inked a deal to supply a 2-megawatt alkaline electrolyzer to a Spanish cement facility. That same day, another Chinese manufacturer, Hygreen Energy, announced an agreement to supply a 1.3-megawatt system to a green hydrogen project in Nova Scotia.
With both temperatures and electricity prices rising, many who are using less energy are still paying more, according to data from the Electricity Price Hub.
In 135 years of record-keeping, Tampa, Florida, has never been hotter than it was last July.
Though often humid, the city on the bay is typically breezy, even in summer. But on July 27, it broke 100 degrees Fahrenheit on the thermometer for the first time ever; two days later, it hit its highest-ever heat index, 119 degrees. The family of Hezekiah Walters, the 14-year-old who died of heat stroke during football practice in Tampa in 2019, urged neighbors at a local CPR certification event to take the heat warnings seriously. Local HVAC companies complained about the volume of calls. Area hospitals struggled to keep their rooms and clinics comfortable. Experts later said the record temperatures were made five times more likely by climate change.
But according to data from Heatmap and MIT’s Electricity Price Hub, Tampa Electric customers used 14% less electricity in July 2025 than they did in the same month of 2020, which was Tampa’s previous hottest July on record — about 216 kilowatt-hours per household less, roughly the equivalent of running a central AC a couple hours fewer per day for an entire month. Tellingly, Tampa Electric raised rates over that period by 84%, with the average bill growing from $111 to $190 per month.
Though there are many instances in many places around the country where usage has dropped as rates rose, the correlation doesn’t necessarily mean people were rationing their electricity. Climate-related factors like anomalously cool summers can lower summer bills, while energy efficiency upgrades can also result in changes to residential consumption. Southern California Edison customers, for example, used 24% less electricity in 2025 than they did in 2020, at least in part due to the widespread adoption of rooftop solar.
Thanks to recent efforts by the Energy Information Agency to track energy insecurity and utility disconnections, however, we can start to tease out deficiency from efficiency. By cross-referencing that data with rate and usage statistics from the Electricity Price Hub, we find a handful of places like Tampa, where people have seemingly reduced their electricity usage because they couldn’t afford the added cost, even during a deadly heatwave. (Tampa Electric did not return our request for comment.)
The EIA’s tracking program, known as the Residential Energy Consumption Survey, tells a clear story: Across the country, people are struggling to absorb the rising costs of electricity. In 2020, nearly one in four Americans reported some form of energy insecurity, meaning they were either unable to afford to use heating or cooling equipment, pay their energy bills, or pay for other necessities due to energy costs. By 2024, the most recent data available, that number had risen to a third — and two-thirds of households with incomes under $10,000. In 2024 alone, utilities sent 94.9 million final shutoff notices to residential electricity customers.
Since 2020, 98% of the more than 400 utilities in the Heatmap-MIT dataset have raised their rates — more than half of them by greater than 20%; about one in 10 utilities have raised their rates by 50% or more. And 219 of those utilities raised rates even as usage in their service area fell, meaning that as customers used less, they still paid more.
“I don’t feel like [the rates have] ever been all that affordable, but they have steadily increased more and more and more,” Janelle Ghiorso, a PG&E customer in California who recently filed for bankruptcy due to the debt she incurred from her electricity bills, told me. She added: “When do I get relief? When I’m dead?”
The people hit hardest by rate increases tend to be those already struggling the most. For example, about 30% of Kentucky residents reported going without heat or AC, leaving their homes at unsafe temperatures, or cutting back on food or medicine to pay energy bills, per the EIA’s 2020 RECS report. Since then, Kentucky Power has raised rates in the eastern part of the state by 45%, adding about $64 to the average monthly bill in a service area where the median monthly household income can be less than $4,000.
The Department of Energy’s Low-income Energy Affordability Data, which measures energy affordability patterns, actually obscures some of this burden. It reports that for all of Kentucky, annual electricity costs account for about 2% of the state’s median household income, which is about average for the nation. But in Kentucky Power’s Appalachian service area specifically, many households live under 200% of the poverty level, and $15 of every $100 someone earns might go toward their energy costs, Chris Woolery, the residential energy coordinator at Mountain Association, a nonprofit economic development group that serves the region, told me. “The situation is just dire for many folks,” he said.
Kentucky Power is aware of this; its low-income assistance charge has grown by 110% since 2020, the Heatmap-MIT data shows. Woolery also noted that the utility agreed to voluntary protections against disconnections, such as a 24-hour moratorium during extreme weather, in a rate case settlement with the Kentucky Public Service Commission. The commission rejected the proposal, but the utility kept the protections anyway, Woolery told me.
Customers in other areas are not so lucky.
In states like Oklahoma, where one in three households reported energy insecurity in 2020, rates rose about 30% from 2020 to 2025, according to our data. Per the EIA survey, Oklahoma’s monthly disconnection rate is more than three times the national average. Oklahoma doesn’t have the highest electricity rates in the country — far from it. But median incomes there are low enough that even moderate rate increases leave some with hard choices.
Interestingly, in bottom-income-quartile states, where median household incomes are below $81,337, only about 30% of utilities show a pattern of rising bills and falling electricity usage, which would suggest energy rationing. The other 70% of utilities show the opposite effect: usage is rising despite electricity rates becoming a bigger burden of customers’ incomes. In Kentucky Power’s service area, for example, bills may be up $64 a month, but usage remained essentially flat.
“Think of it this way: The electric company goes to the front of the line,” Mark Wolfe, the executive director of the National Energy Assistance Directors Association, a policy group for administrators of the Low-Income Home Energy Assistance Program, told me of how households triage their bills. If you need to buy something from the grocery store, the drug store, or pay your electricity bill, then “the utility goes to the front of the line because they can shut off your power, which causes lots of other problems.”
Wolfe added, “Plus, if you’re really in dire straits, you can go to the food bank. You can’t go to the ‘other’ utility company.”
Even as resource-strapped households put a higher share of their income toward electricity, they’re also least able to afford energy efficiency upgrades like newer appliances, smart thermostats, or solar panels. The pattern is prevalent in places with extreme climates, such as Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama, where turning off the AC in the middle of summer could mean death. It shows up most starkly among the most extreme rate examples in our data set, like the utilities serving remote Alaska villages — despite astronomical electricity prices, usage hasn’t fluctuated much because its customers are already using it as little as they can afford. The elderly and other individuals living on fixed incomes are also often unable to cut their electricity usage beyond what little they’re already using.
In middle-income states like Florida, roughly 60% of the utilities in our dataset show rising bills and falling electricity use — more than twice the rate we see in the lowest-income states. While the poorest Americans have already reduced their electricity use to the bare minimum and are cutting groceries and medicine in order to keep the heat and AC on, in places like Tampa, where the median income is $96,480, the electricity rate shocks have caused even middle- and even high-earning households to start worrying about their bills. According to a new survey released Tuesday by Ipsos and the energy policy nonprofit PowerLines, 74% of respondents with household incomes over $100,000 said they are worried about their utility bills increasing.
“People are seeing their utility bill as one of the few things that changes so much month to month, that is so unpredictable, and that they don’t have any control over,” Charles Hua, the founder and executive director of PowerLines, told me.
Wolfe, the executive director at NEADA, agreed, saying that for the first time, the association has begun hearing from families with incomes above the threshold who need assistance. “An extra $100 a month for a family, but they’re middle class — that shouldn’t push them over the edge,” at least in theory, Wolfe said. But for those with no flexibility in their budgets, anything additional or unpredictable “pushes them close to the edge — from going from middle class to lower middle class — and I think that’s why this affordability crisis is becoming such an issue.”
We can also see this phenomenon in the explosion of line items on utility bills going toward funding assistance programs. Appalachian Power Co.’s low-income surcharge, for instance, is up 3,200% for customers in Virginia; Puget Sound Energy’s low-income program is up 970% for customers in Washington; and PacifiCorp Oregon’s low-income cost-recovery charge, up 879%.
The EIA data, too, bears this out: Florida had one of the highest rates of people reporting they were “unable to use air conditioning equipment” due to costs in the RECS data, and in 2024, there were 186,202 disconnections in the state in July alone — every one of which would have meant people no longer had the power to run their ACs. (FPL and Duke Energy Florida also show usage declines as rates rose, although neither raised rates as much as Tampa.)
The data also shows places where higher-income earners have aggressively pursued efficiency upgrades to lower their usage. In the LA Department of Water and Power service area in California, usage is down more than 11% overall between 2020 and 2025, one of the biggest drops in our dataset. But the lower usage is more evenly distributed month to month, indicating that things like solar adoption and efficiency programs are likely behind the drop, rather than cost pressures. (Rates there still rose more than 28%, or about $15 per month.)
Even doing everything right wasn’t enough to save customers in the end — households that cut their electricity use still saw their bills rise by an average of $20 a month, our data shows.
Perhaps most concerning, though, is the relentless upward trajectory. PowerLines reports that utilities have submitted $9.4 billion in new requests in the first quarter of 2026 alone. Heatmap and MIT’s numbers show that 79% of utilities raised rates in 2025, and 55% have raised them again already this year.
But the advocates I talked to stressed that utilities have more agency than they get credit for. Take Kentucky Power, for example, with its voluntary disconnection protections. “It just shows that you don’t necessarily have to make disconnections to be financially solvent,” Woolery of the Mountain Association pointed out. Or take Ouachita Electric in Arkansas, which passed a 4.5% rate decrease after investing in efficiency upgrades in consumers’ homes through a pay-as-you-save model.
But that’s the rare exception. For most customers, relief is not obviously on the way. Signs increasingly point to the imminent onset of a super El Niño, which could bring punishing, climate-change-intensified heat waves across the United States. The July 2025 record in Tampa will almost certainly not stand; someday, it’ll be the second-hottest summer, or the third. In a few decades, it might even look cool.
And still there will be bills to pay.