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Plus a note on batteries.

Rooftop solar is not like other types of consumer technology. Even though the end result is having a bunch of electrical equipment installed on the roof of your home, the process of getting solar is more like doing a bathroom renovation than buying a flat screen TV. To get the results you’re looking for, the most important decisions you’ll make are not the brand or model of the panels, but rather who you hire for the job, the size of your system, and how you finance it.
There’s a bunch more choices you’ll have to navigate along the way, and it’s easy to get overwhelmed. One expert I spoke with told me that sometimes the customers who are the most excited about getting solar end up bailing, the victims of decision fatigue.
We created this guide to save you from that fate. So take a deep breath, take my hand, and let’s walk down the metaphorical hardware store aisle and get you the rooftop solar solution you’re dreaming of.
Roger Horowitz is the director of Go Solar programs at Solar United Neighbors, a national nonprofit that serves as an unbiased resource for homeowners interested in solar. Horowitz manages and provides technical support to the company’s Solar Help Desk team.
Tony Vernetti is a senior trainer at Enphase Energy, a company that produces inverters, batteries, and EV chargers, where he trains solar sales and installation teams. Before joining Enphase in 2020, Vernetti spent 12 years working for rooftop solar companies in California.
Nate Bowie is the vice president of residential sales at ReVision Energy, an employee-owned solar company operating throughout northern New England. Bowie has been selling solar for ReVision for 15 years.
While the actual installation of the system should only take one to two days, the entire process from initial outreach to grid connection takes two to four months on average, according to Solar United Neighbors.
Example: The highest rated solar panels for 2024 according to EnergySage.com are SunPower's M-Series 440 watt model. If you install 20 of these, the system will be capable of generating 8,800 watts, or 8.8 kilowatts in direct sun.
When you start searching for information about solar on the internet, you might come across advertisements or commercials promoting free solar panels. There is no such thing. These ads are typically schemes to collect your personal data and sell it to solar companies looking for leads, and the federal government is starting to
crack down on them.
It is possible to install solar with zero up-front costs if you lease the system or take out a loan to finance it, but in both cases you will still owe monthly payments. It is also rare that anyone is able to offset 100% of their utility bill. You can get close, but you will likely still owe at least a connection fee to your utility company.
Most homeowners in the U.S. can benefit from installing solar as long as local energy policies are favorable. Placing the panels on a south-facing roof is optimal, but not necessary. If your panels face due west, you’ll only lose about 10% of potential generation, according to Vernetti. “They still produce a ton of energy. They’re still very effective. It's just a little bit less than if they're facing south,” he said. An east-facing roof is also viable in most cases.
You don’t have to worry about shoveling snow off the roof or anything like that. But like any other electronic devices, solar panels, inverters, and batteries can break or malfunction, and your system may require servicing at some point. Pay close attention to your warranties (more on that later). If you lease the system, you do not have to worry about this as much because the third-party owner will be responsible for maintenance.
In order to design a system that meets your needs and budget, solar companies will ask for a copy of your most recent electricity bill or, ideally, your annual energy consumption history. Make sure you have this information handy before you reach out for quotes.
Some utilities include your annual energy consumption, broken out by month, at the bottom of your electric bill. If you don’t see it, you should be able to log into your utility account online and download either your statements from the past year or a spreadsheet of your monthly electric meter readings.
In most of the U.S., you will find you have the option either to lease your solar panels or buy them outright. You don’t have to decide which way you want to go before you get started, but it’s helpful to think through the pros and cons of each.
Heatmap Recommends leasing if: You’re fairly certain you’ll keep your house for the next 15 to 20 years; you can’t afford the system outright, but you don’t want to take out a loan; your priority is to generate clean energy and reduce emissions, but you don’t want to spend too much time figuring out what you want or worrying about the system’s maintenance.
Heatmap Recommends buying if: You have the cash in hand; you might sell your house in the next 20 years; you know you want to have control over the details of your project.
The federal government offers a 30% tax credit for solar installations (and batteries) that covers parts and labor. It can significantly reduce the cost of getting solar, even if you don’t have a lot of tax liability in the year that you install the system. The credit will roll over to subsequent tax years.
Example: If you spend $25,000 installing solar in 2024, you’ll be eligible to take $7,500 off your federal income tax bill. If you only owe $3,000 in federal taxes in 2024, you’ll get $3,000 back and will be eligible to claim the remaining $4,500 for the 2025 tax year. If in 2025 you only owe $3,000 again, you can claim the remaining $1,500 in 2026.
Additional tax credits and rebates may also be offered by your state energy office, city, or utility. Contractors should be able to help you figure out what you’re eligible for, and you can wait to talk to them to learn more. However, incentives change frequently, and contractors don’t always keep up, so you might want to review the options in your area independently.
It will also be helpful to understand your state’s net metering policy, as that will determine how quickly your investment in solar will pay off and may also dictate how big your system can be. Some states, like New Jersey, also allow homeowners to generate additional income through the sale of solar renewable energy credits, or SRECS.
Where to look for more information:
One of the worst things that could happen is you install rooftop solar panels, and then later find out you have a leak or some other problem with your roof. “Removal and replacement of an array for a reroof is expensive and could significantly impact the owner’s return on investment,” Bowie told me. While metal roofs last a very long time and are unlikely to need a replacement, asphalt shingle roofs generally have a useful life of 25 to 30 years, Bowie said. You should be fine if your roof is less than 10 years old, but if not, you may need some roofing work done before your solar panels are installed.
If you don’t know how old your roof is, Vernetti recommended having a roofing contractor inspect it. He added that there’s varying opinions on this, with some solar experts recommending replacement if the roof is only 5 years old. “In my opinion, scrapping a 5 year old roof is wasteful and goes against the goal of sustainability,” he said.
“A good solar contractor will help evaluate the roof conditions and should recommend replacement when necessary, even if it is just to replace the roof on the roof plane where the solar panels will go,” said Bowie.
Solar contractors range from local mom and pop shops, to regional providers like ReVision Energy, which operates in multiple states in the Northeast, to national companies that install across the country like Sunrun and Sunnova.
“The advantage of going with a large company is that they have the ability to offer financing the smaller companies might not be able to. With a regional company, you can actually walk to their office and knock on the door and talk to somebody if you want to,” said Vernetti.
Heatmap Recommends: Contact at least one local company and one national company to get a good sense of your options. Always get at least three quotes!
If you are calling installers directly, here are some tips for what you should ask for or look for in a quote. (If you are using an online resource like EnergySage that finds quotes for you, use the following to help you ask follow-up questions or refine the proposals.)
A few questions you should ask:
One of the first questions an installer might ask you is how big you want the system to be. You may want to see quotes for multiple options in order to compare them. Options include:
Heatmap Recommends: Oversize your system if you can afford it.
Why?
Exceptions:
Most installers will include a financing option in their quote. Horowitz noted that some installers advertise very low interest rates that are below market rate. They are typically able to do this by paying a “dealer fee” to the bank, which they incorporate into the price of your installation — in other words, if your interest rate seems too good to be true, the total cost of your installation will likely be higher than it otherwise would be. To get a better sense of the true cost, ask for quotes both with and without financing options.
Adding energy storage, a.k.a. a battery, to your solar array can add another 10 grand or more to the project cost. But there are a few reasons it might be worth it:
In conclusion, if you just want back-up power, any battery that’s large enough to power your essential systems should do. If you want to pay off the investment, look into time-of-use rates. If you want your investment to go further for decarbonization, ask your contractor if there are local grid services programs available, and if any of their products are compatible.
After you get a few quotes, you’re going to want to spend some time comparing them, asking questions, and potentially soliciting additional quotes with variations on the system. If you’re feeling overwhelmed or you don’t have the time or patience to sort through the details on your own, you can also call the Solar United Neighbors Help Desk, which offers a free quote review service.
The most important number on the quote is the price per watt, not the total system cost. That is the number you should be comparing between different installers, as the quotes may be for differently sized systems.
You should also compare the annual bill savings. If two different companies quote you significantly different savings for systems that are roughly the same size, one of them has likely done a more detailed analysis of your roof than the other.
“It doesn't matter what module you have, from which manufacturer, or what inverter you have. There really is no difference in what your system can produce if it's the same size,” said Bowie.
Lastly, if the quote is for a solar lease, or includes a financing option, look at the monthly payments.
Every installer has certain brands and types of equipment they work with. Our expert panel agreed that it’s important to look at the brand names the installer is offering for the solar panels, inverters, and batteries, and to make sure they are from reputable companies that have been around for at least five years — even if it means paying more. A quick internet search of the top 10 residential solar panel brands should give you a taste of what those companies are.
“It is definitely worth paying a little bit extra to have really good equipment,” Vernetti said.
You may also see installers advertise that they offer “Tier 1” solar panels. That means the manufacturer has been designated “bankable” by Bloomberg New Energy Finance. The designation is more related to finance than product quality, but many solar companies use it as a rough proxy for reliability.
That being said, don’t get too bogged down in comparing solar brands.
“There's not a huge difference, typically, between one solar panel and the next of the Tier 1 manufacturers,” said Bowie. “A lot of solar companies will maybe offer one or two different manufacturers, and then maybe beyond that one or two different sizes.”
When it comes to inverters, you do want to pay attention to whether your quote includes string inverters, microinverters, or power optimizers. In a system with a string inverter, your panels will all be wired to one central inverter. This is generally the cheapest option, but it is less durable and may need to be replaced, said Vernetti, whose employer, Enphase, is the leading producer of microinverters. String inverters can also limit the output of your system if part of the roof gets more shade.
The other two options are more expensive but get around the issue with shade. A system with power optimizers is similar to one with a string inverter, but each panel will also have a small device attached to it that regulates the output and maximizes your system’s performance. By contrast, microinverters are small inverters attached to each individual panel. Both of these options also allow you to monitor each panel’s performance.
Bowie said the two were comparable in terms of performance and price. A key consideration, he said, is that your choice of inverter can begin to lock you into using the same brand of equipment on other home upgrades you might do down the line. “If you're an EnPhase customer, you're likely going to be going down the track of an EnPhase battery storage system,” he said. “Whether the customers know it or not, they're kind of being pushed down a path towards this manufacturer for more things in their home, like batteries, whole home controls, electric vehicle charging."
Your quote should provide information about warranties offered by the manufacturers of the panels, inverters, and batteries, as well as by the installation company. 25-year warranties are standard, but the details vary by installation company and by manufacturer. For example, your inverters may have a 25-year warranty, meaning you can get replacement inverters for free if any of them fails within that time period — but if you don’t have a warranty on labor, it could cost you several hundred dollars to get them installed.
“It's really important for customers to read the fine print and to talk with their local solar company who is quoting the system for them to uncover what the warranties mean,” said Bowie.
This is especially important if you are installing batteries. Ask your installer about both the equipment warranty and their policy is for servicing the equipment.
Most solar installers offer financing options. Your quote should include the name of the lender the installer works with, the down payment, monthly payment, financing term, and interest rate. However, you may find a better deal elsewhere. Horowitz noted that installers like using their own financing companies because it speeds up the sales process — they can approve you for a loan just by putting in your social security number, and sell it to you at the same time as the contract. But you may find a better deal elsewhere.
“Talk to your bank, talk to your credit union, look at home equity lines of credit, see what other options you have out there, and if those have lower interest rates or better payment terms,” said Horowitz. “You are not required to use their finance.”
After you’ve found an installer, settled on a system design, and secured financing, all that’s left to do is sign your contract. Then, you wait. Your installer will have to obtain permits from your city, county, or state, as well as an interconnection agreement with your utility.
One way to try to minimize the wait time is by working with an installer with lots of local experience. They’ll be better equipped to navigate the permitting process. For example, if you want Tesla solar panels but Tesla hasn’t done many installations in your community, it may take longer for the company to get through this stage.
After these two steps are complete, the solar company will reach out to you to schedule the installation, which should only take a few days.
After the system is installed, you may have to wait for a final inspection from your utility or a verified third party for permission to operate the system.
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On Breakthrough Energy Ventures’ quantum computing investment, plus more of the week’s biggest money moves.
It’s been a busy week for funding, with several of the most high-profile deals featured in our daily AM newsletter, including Slate Auto’s $650 million fundraise for its stripped-down electric truck and Rivian’s partnership with Redwood Materials to repurpose the electric automaker’s battery packs for grid-scale storage.
These are clearly companies with direct decarbonization implications, but one of the week’s other biggest announcements raises the question: Is this really climate tech? That would be quantum computing startup Sygaldry, which recently nabbed $139 million in a round led by Breakthrough Energy Ventures to build quantum AI infrastructure. Huh.
Elsewhere in the ecosystem, the climate connection is a little more straightforward, with new funding for advanced surface materials designed to improve insulation and fire-protection, capital for microgrids that can integrate a diverse mix of generation and storage assets, and federal support for next-generation geothermal tech.
Quantum computing offers a futuristic paradigm for high-powered information processing and problem solving. By leveraging the principles of quantum mechanics, these systems operate in fundamentally different ways than even today’s most advanced supercomputers, encoding information not as ones and zeros, but as quantum units called “qubits.” Naturally, there is significant interest in applying this novel tech — which today remains error-prone and not ready for prime time — to artificial intelligence, with the aim of exponentially accelerating certain training and inference workloads.
Perhaps less intuitively, however, these next-generation computers are now viewed, at least by one prominent venture capital firm, as a key climate technology.
This week, quantum computing startup Sygaldry raised a $139 million Series A round led by Bill Gates’ climate tech VC firm Breakthrough Energy Ventures to build “quantum-acclerated AI servers” for data centers, which could reduce the cost and power required to train and operate large models. “The AI industry is advancing faster than ever and needs a breakthrough in performance per watt,” Carmichael Roberts, Breakthrough Energy Ventures’ chief investment officer said in the press release. “Sygaldry’s vision for bringing quantum directly to the AI data center has the potential to deliver exactly that, bending the cost and energy curve at the moment it matters most."
Certainly Sygaldry’s ultra-high-powered computers could help lower the energy intensity of AI workloads, but that is no guarantee that it will reduce AI and data center emissions overall. As was widely discussed when the Chinese AI firm DeepSeek released its cheaper, more energy-efficient model early last year, efficiency gains could reduce emissions in the sector at large, but they are perhaps just as likely — or some argue even more likely — to drive greater proliferation of AI across a wide array of industries. This unfettered growth could offset efficiency gains entirely, leading to a net increase in AI power demand.
Buildings account for nearly 37% of domestic energy consumption, with heating and cooling representing the largest share of that load. But while energy efficiency strategies typically focus on upgrading insulation or adjusting the thermostat, there’s another approach — essentially painting the roof with sunlight-reflecting material — that has the potential to reduce AC demand and thus cut a building’s cooling-related energy use by up to 50%.
Just such a “paint” is one of the unique ceramic coatings developed by NanoTech Materials, which this week raised a $29.4 million Series A to scale its infrastructure materials business. Beyond roofing, the company also offers a fire-protective coating for wooden infrastructure such as utility poles, fences, highway retaining walls, and other transportation assets, as well as an insulative coating for high-heat industrial equipment such as pipes and storage tanks designed to slow heat loss and prevent burn risk.
“Today’s built environment demands materials that don’t just meet code, but can also outperform the extreme conditions we’re now facing,” said D. Kent Lance, a partner at HPI Real Estate Services & Investments, which led the Series A. Nanotech Materials currently operates a manufacturing facility in Texas and plans to use this new capital to further expand its operations as it conducts market research for its various product lines.
Interconnection delays aren’t just a data center problem. Industrial developers working on everything from real estate and electric vehicle charging to manufacturing and aviation are also struggling to get timely and reliable access to power when building or expanding their operations. Enter Critical Loop. This modular microgrid company is building battery energy storage systems that can integrate batteries of varying sizes and specifications with a variety of power sources, including onsite solar, diesel generators, and grid power.
This week, the startup announced a $26 million Series A round, bringing total funding to $49 million across all equity and debt financing. Critical Loop’s approach combines a software platform with proprietary hardware — what it calls a “combiner” — which reduces the need for the many custom components typically required to connect a diverse mix of batteries and generation sources. “There’s a lot of power problems that are not getting solved because of limitations on an understanding of how to integrate different systems at a site,” Critical Loop’s CEO Balachandar Ramamurthy, told me last month.
The company’s initial product is a modular single-megawatt battery system that can be transported in shipping containers for rapid deployment in capacity-constrained locations. To date, Critical Loop has deployed about 50 megawatt-hours of microgrid assets, with plans to scale to over 100 megawatt-hours by year’s end.
It’s been another exciting week for one of the few bipartisan bright spots in clean energy — geothermal development. My colleague Alexander C. Kaufman reported in this morning’s AM newsletter that the AI-native geothermal company Zanskar secured $40 million through one of the first development capital facilities for early-stage geothermal development, and now the technology has secured fresh capital from the fickle U.S. Department of Energy. Today, the DOE announced a $14 million grant to support an enhanced geothermal demonstration project in Pennsylvania that will convert an old shale gas well into a geothermal pilot plant.
Conventional geothermal systems depend on a highly specific set of subsurface conditions to be commercially viable, which includes naturally occurring underground reservoirs where fluid flows among hot rocks. By contrast, developers of enhanced geothermal systems effectively engineer their own reservoirs, hydraulically fracturing rock formations and then circulating water through those man-made fractures to extract heat that’s then used to generate electricity. A number of well-funded startups are advancing this approach using drilling techniques adapted from the oil and gas industry, such as Fervo Energy — which has an agreement with Google to supply electricity for its data centers — and Sage Geosystems, which has a similar tie-up with Meta.
“As the first enhanced geothermal systems demonstration site located in the eastern United States, this project offers an important opportunity to assess the ability of such systems to deliver reliable, affordable geothermal electricity to Americans nationwide,” Kyle Haustveit, the Assistant Secretary of the Hydrocarbons and Geothermal Energy Office, said in the DOE release. If successful, the Energy Department says the project could provide a replicable model for scaling the deployment of enhanced geothermal systems across a broader range of geographies.
This week, the nonprofit XPRIZE organization announced that it’s partnering with Amazon to launch a new global competition focused on critical mineral circularity — redesigning how minerals such as lithium, cobalt, and nickel are recovered, processed, and reused. Demand for these minerals is projected to quadruple by 2040, but their supply chains remain largely concentrated in China, especially across refining, processing, and battery manufacturing.
The competition aims to catalyze breakthroughs in mineral recovery and recycling, materials solutions, and lower-impact extraction methods. It’s not yet open to submissions as organizers are still seeking philanthropic and corporate funding before entrepreneurs, startups, and research teams can submit their ideas for consideration. XPRIZE has been running challenges for three decades now, with past competitions revolving around carbon removal, adult literacy, and lunar exploration.
Current conditions: A broad swath of the United States stretching from South Texas to Chicago is being bombarded by the Central U.S. with severe storms and more than two dozen tornadoes so far • The thunderstorms pummeling Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands are expected to stretch into the weekend • Kigali is also in the midst of a days-long stretch of heavy storms, testing the Rwandan capital’s recent wetland overhaul.
SunZia Wind, the largest renewable energy project of its kind ever built in the U.S., has started generating electricity, nearly capping off a two-decade effort to supply Californians with wind power generated in New Mexico. The developer has begun testing the project’s 916 turbines ahead of planned full-scale commercial operations later this quarter, unnamed sources told E&E News. The project includes 3.5 gigawatts of wind and 550 miles of transmission line to funnel the electricity west from the desert state to the coast. “The impact is already evident,” the newswire wrote. “California broke its record for wind generation eight times in the last four weeks.”
When Heatmap’s Robinson Meyer visited SunZia’s construction site in August 2024, he observed that, once it started running at full blast, the project would “generate roughly 1% of the country’s electricity needs.” Its success in the face of the Trump administration’s attacks on wind could “lay the model” for a new paradigm in which “clean energy buildings and environmental protectors work together to find the best solution for the environment and the climate,” Rob wrote. “We will need many more success stories like it if America is to meet its climate goals — 99 more, to be exact.”
The U.S. Senate voted 50-49 on Thursday to repeal a mining ban on land near the Minnesota’s Boundary Waters Canoe Area Wilderness, declaring what Heatmap’s Jeva Lange called “open season” on public lands. In what the public lands news site Public Domain called “an unprecedented use of the Congressional Review Act,” the vote slashes protections for the iconic nature preserve. Inspiring even fiercer political pushback is the fact that Republicans championed the effort largely to benefit an overseas corporation: Twin Metals Minnesota, a subsidiary of the Chilean mining conglomerate Antofagasta, which has for years sought to establish a copper-nickel mine on national forest land near the wilderness area. “The Boundary Waters belong to everyone,” Julie Goodwin, a senior attorney at Earthjustice, said in a statement. “They should be protected and enjoyed by all, not jeopardized to benefit a wealthy foreign company.”
At the same time, global demand for both nickel and copper are surging — and a successful effort to decarbonize the world economy through greater electrification will require a lot more of both metals.
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The good news: The Department of Energy is allowing the Direct Air Capture hub program started under the Biden administration to move forward. In documents submitted to Congress this week, the agency listed as approved the up to $1.2 billion the program awarded to two projects: Occidental Petroleum’s South Texas DAC Hub, and Climeworks and Heirloom’s joint Project Cypress in Louisiana. As Heatmap’s Emily Pontecorvo noted: “This fate was far from certain.” After the Energy Department cut funding for 10 of the original 21 projects last fall, a leaked list of projects suggested the Louisiana and Texas hubs would be targeted in a second wave of rescissions. The bad news: Last week, Rob had a scoop that Microsoft — whose carbon removal buying made up roughly 80% of the industry — was pausing its purchases. And as he wrote yesterday, even if it’s just temporary, the pause will ripple through the nascent market.
Other technologies that once seemed like science fiction are, in fact, moving forward. In an exclusive for Heatmap, I reported that Clean Core Thorium Energy, a Chicago-based company designing thorium fuel bundles that works in existing reactors, inked a deal to manufacture its first four units. In addition to assembling the bundles, the Canadian National Laboratories will supply the small amount of a special kind of uranium fuel needed to be blended into Clean Core’s mix and that serves as a spark plug for the reaction.
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Last October, the Energy Department asked the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission to set rules for patching data centers, advanced factories, and other large loads onto the grid. The move, as Utility Dive reported at the time, sparked controversy over whether it represented a Washington power grab given that the landmark Federal Power Act gives states jurisdiction over retail electricity interconnections. Now FERC has said it plans to respond. On Thursday, Robin Millican, a researcher at Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy, posted on X that FERC announced a notice of intent to act on the Energy Department’s request, with a ruling expected in June. “Good,” she wrote. “Ensuring interconnection costs from data centers, advanced manufacturing, and big electrification projects aren’t passed to retail customers is overdue.”
Back in January, I told you that two geothermal startups raised a combined $212 million: Zanskar, which uses artificial intelligence to hunt down previously undetected conventional geothermal resources underground; and Sage Geosystems, a next-generation startup using fracking technology to drill for geothermal heat in places that conventional resources can’t tap. This week we saw two geothermal companies once again net a nine-digit number. Once again, Zanskar — considered by experts Heatmap surveyed to be one of the most promising climate-tech companies in the game right now for a reason, after all — announced the closing of another $40 million fundraise. Just Capital and Spring Lane Capital led the round, with an additional investment from Tierra Adentro Growth Capital. Zanskar said the round was a development capital facility, a type of deal that usually involves equity or debt to fund a company’s growth. It is “among the first ever structured for early-stage geothermal development, drawing on the best practices from the renewables and natural resource sectors,” the company said Thursday in a press release. The financing will help establish a revolving line of credit “designed to accelerate project development.”
On Wednesday, another competitor in the next-generation geothermal space, Mazama Energy, pulled in a fresh round of capital. The Frisco, Texas-based company, which last year boasted a system that reached hotter temperatures than any other geothermal company, just raised $100 million, according to Axios.

San Diego, once the poster child for a drought-parched Southern Californian city, is now looking to become a water exporter, The Wall Street Journal reported. North America’s largest desalination plant is producing so much freshwater for the San Diego County Water Authority that the city is working on a deal to sell millions of gallons to Arizona and Nevada. The Claude “Bud” Lewis Carlsbad Desalination Plant, which opened in 2015 and is owned by an infrastructure investment firm, may produce more expensive than average water, but “it is important to note that it is more reliable than other sources,” Keith R. Solar, a water attorney from the seaside neighborhood of Point Loma, wrote in the Voice of San Diego last year. “Its value as insurance against disruption of supplies from other sources makes it a critical part of our future.”
Though the tech giant did not say its purchasing pause is permanent, the change will have lasting ripple effects.
What does an industry do when it’s lost 80% of its annual demand?
The carbon removal business is trying to figure that out.
For the past few years, Microsoft has been the buyer of first and last resort for any company that sought to pull carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. In order to achieve an aggressive internal climate goal, the software company purchased more than 70 million metric tons of carbon removal credits, 40 times more than anyone else.
Now, it’s pulling back. Microsoft has informed suppliers and partners that it is pausing carbon removal buying, Heatmap reported last week. Bloomberg and Carbon Herald soon followed. The news has rippled through the nascent industry, convincing executives and investors that lean years may be on the way after a period of rapid growth.
“For a lot of these companies, their business model was, ‘And then Microsoft buys,’” said Julio Friedmann, the chief scientist at Carbon Direct, a company that advises and consults with companies — including, yes, Microsoft — on their carbon management projects, in an interview. “It changes their business model significantly if Microsoft does not buy.”
Microsoft told me this week that it has not ended the purchasing program. It still aims to become carbon negative by 2030, meaning that it must remove more climate pollution from the atmosphere than it produces in that year, according to its website. Its ultimate goal is to eliminate all 45 years of its historic carbon emissions from electricity use by 2050.
“At times, we may adjust the pace or volume of our carbon removal procurement as we continue to refine our approach toward sustainability goals,” Melanie Nakagawa, Microsoft’s chief sustainability officer, said in a statement. “Any adjustments we make are part of our disciplined approach — not a change in ambition.”
Yet even a partial pullback will alter the industry. Over the past five years, carbon removal companies have raised more than $3.6 billion, according to the independent data tracker CDR.fyi. Startups have invested that money into research and equipment, expecting that voluntary corporate buyers — and, eventually, governments — will pay to clean up carbon dioxide in the air.
Although many companies have implicitly promised to buy carbon removal credits — they’re all but implied in any commitment to “net zero” — nobody bought more than Microsoft. The software company purchased 45 million tons of carbon removal last year alone, according to its own data.
The next biggest buyer of carbon removal credits — Frontier, a coalition of large companies led by the payments processing firm Stripe — has bought 1.8 million tons total since launching in 2022.
With such an outsize footprint, Microsoft’s carbon removal team became the de facto regulator for the early industry — setting prices, analyzing projects, and publishing in-house standards for public consumption.
It bought from virtually every kind of carbon removal company, purchasing from large-scale, factory-style facilities that use industrial equipment to suck carbon from the air, as well as smaller and more natural solutions that rely on photosynthesis. One of its largest deals was with the city-owned utility for Stockholm, Sweden, which is building a facility to capture the carbon released when plant matter is burned for energy.
That it would some day stop buying shouldn’t be seen as a surprise, Hannah Bebbington, the head of deployment at the carbon-removal purchasing coalition Frontier, told me. “It will be inevitable for any corporate buyer in the space,” she said. “Corporate budgets are finite.”
Frontier’s members include Google, McKinsey, and Shopify. The coalition remains “open for business,” she said. “We are always open to new buyers joining Frontier.”
But Frontier — and, certainly, Microsoft — understands that the real point of voluntary purchasing programs is to prime the pump for government policy. That’s both because governments play a central role in spurring along new technologies — and because, when you get down to it, governments already handle disposal for a number of different kinds of waste, and carbon dioxide in the air is just another kind of waste. (On a per ton basis, carbon removal may already be price-competitive with municipal trash pickup.)
“The end game here is government support in the long-term period,” Bebbington said. “We will need a robust set of policies around the world that provide permanent demand for high-quality, durable CDR funds.”
“The voluntary market plays a critical role right now, but it won’t scale, and we don’t expect it will scale to the size of the problem,” she added.
Only a handful of companies had the size and scale to sell carbon credits to Microsoft, which tended to place orders in the millions of tons, Jack Andreasen Cavanaugh, a researcher at the Center on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University, told me on a recent episode of Heatmap’s podcast, Shift Key. Those companies will now be competing with fledgling firms for a market that’s 80% smaller than it used to be.
“Fundamentally, what it will mean is just an acceleration of something that was going to happen anyway, which is consolidation and bankruptcies or dissolutions,” Cavanaugh told me. “This was always going to happen at this moment because we don’t have supportive policy.”
Friedmann agreed with the dour outlook. “We will see the best companies and the best projects make it. But a lot of companies will fail, and a lot of projects will fail,” he told me.
To some degree, Microsoft planned for that eventuality in its purchase scheme. The company signed long-term offtake contracts with companies to “pay on delivery,” meaning that it will only pay once tons are actually shown to be durably dealt with. That arrangement will protect Microsoft’s shareholders if companies or technologies fail, but means that it could conceivably keep paying out carbon removal firms for the next 10 years, Noah Deich, a former Biden administration energy official, told me.
The pause, in other words, spells an end to new dealmaking, but it does not stop the flow of revenue to carbon removal companies that have already signed contracts with Microsoft. “The big question now is not who will the next buyer be in 2026,”’ Deich said. “It is who is actually going to deliver credits and do so at scale, at cost, and on time.”
Deich, who ran the Energy Department’s carbon management programs, added that Microsoft has been as important to building the carbon removal industry as Germany was to creating the modern solar industry. That country’s feed-in tariff, which started in 2000, is credited with driving so much demand for solar panels that it spurred a worldwide wave of factory construction and manufacturing innovation.
“The idea that a software company could single-handedly make the market for a climate technology makes about as much sense as the country of Germany — with the same annual solar insolation as Alaska — making the market for solar photovoltaic panels,” Deich said, referencing the comparatively low amount of sunlight that it receives. “But they did it. Climate policy seems to defy Occam’s razor a lot, and this is a great example of that.”
History also shows what could happen if the government fails to step up. In the 1980s, the U.S. government — which had up to that point been the world’s No. 1 developer of solar panel technology — ended its advance purchase program. Many American solar firms sold their patents and intellectual property to Japanese companies.
Those sales led to something of a lost decade for solar research worldwide and ultimately paved the way for East Asian manufacturing companies — first in Japan, and then in China — to dominate the solar trade, Deich said. If the U.S. government doesn’t step up soon, then the same thing could happen to carbon removal.
The climate math still relied upon by global governments to guide their national emissions targets assumes that carbon removal technology will exist and be able to scale rapidly in the future. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change says that many outcomes where the world holds global temperatures to 1.5 or 2 degrees Celsius by the end of the century will involve some degree of “overshoot,” where carbon removal is used to remove excess carbon from the atmosphere.
By one estimate, the world will need to remove 7 billion to 9 billion tons of carbon from the atmosphere by the middle of the century in order to hold to Paris Agreement goals. You could argue that any scenario where the world meets “net zero” will require some amount of carbon removal because the word “net” implies humanity will be cleaning up residual emissions with technology. (Climate analysts sometimes distinguish “net zero” pathways from the even-more-difficult “real zero” pathway for this reason.)
Whether humanity has the technologies that it needs to eliminate emissions then will depend on what governments do now, Deich said. After all, the 2050s are closer to today than the 1980s are.
“It’s up to policymakers whether they want to make the relatively tiny investments in technology that make sure we can have net-zero 2050 and not net-zero 2080,” Deich said.
Congress has historically supported carbon removal more than other climate-critical technologies. The bipartisan infrastructure law of 2022 funded a new network of industrial hubs specializing in direct air capture technology, and previous budget bills created new first-of-a-kind purchasing programs for carbon removal credits. Even the Republican-authored One Big Beautiful Bill Act preserved tax incentives for some carbon removal technologies.
But the Trump administration has been far more equivocal about those programs. The Department of Energy initially declined to spend some funds authorized for carbon removal schemes, and in some cases redirected the funds — potentially illegally — to other purposes. (Carbon removal advocates got good news on Wednesday when the Energy Department reinstated $1.2 billion in grants to the direct air capture hubs.)
Those freezes and reallocations fit into the Trump administration’s broader war on federal climate policy. In part, Trump officials have seemed reluctant to signal that carbon might be a public problem — or something that needs to be “removed” or “managed” — in the first place.
Other countries have started preliminary carbon management programs — Norway, the United Kingdom, and Canada — have launched pilots in recent years. The European carbon market will also soon publish rules guiding how carbon removal credits can be used to offset pollution.
But in the absence of a large-scale federal program in the U.S., lean years are likely coming, observers said.
“I am optimistic that [carbon removal] will continue to scale, but not like it was,” Friedmann said. “Microsoft is a symptom of something that was coming.”
“The need for carbon removal has not changed,” he added.