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The Biden administration tackles one of the biggest barriers to the energy transition: the dread interconnection queue.

It may soon be easier — and cheaper — to build a large-scale clean energy project in the United States.
Under a new and little-noticed update to a climate tax credit published last week, the government will now pick up some of the cost of connecting a new wind or solar project to the power grid.
The policy could ease one of the biggest barriers to the rapid transformation of the electricity system to fight climate change. It could save clean energy developers hundreds of millions in fees while potentially speeding the deployment of new renewable and low-carbon energy sources across the country.
The Treasury Department, which published the new rules governing the tax credit, declined to comment and referred me to earlier remarks from administration officials. In a statement last week, Deputy Treasury Secretary Wally Adeyemo said that the agency sought to give companies “clarity and certainty needed to secure financing and advance clean energy projects nationwide.”
The guidance would be particularly helpful for “small scale projects that need to connect to the grid,” he said. But a close reading of the guidance suggests that it may go further and help medium or large scale projects, deploying even more clean electricity to the grid than proponents had once envisioned.
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The new tax credit appears to address a major obstacle to decarbonizing the grid: It’s very expensive to connect new wind, solar, and other resources to the electricity grid.
When a company proposes a new large-scale solar or wind project, it must apply to the local power-grid authority for permission to connect its new project to the grid.
This process — called the “interconnection queue” — can take nearly half a decade to complete in some parts of the country. More than 8,100 proposed projects — overwhelmingly wind and solar facilities — were waiting in the queue nationwide at last count.
Construction on those projects cannot begin until they receive approval. Only about one-fifth of wind and solar projects that enter the interconnection queue ultimately get built, according to a recent study from Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory.
Even when a developer finally gets to the front of the line, the process is not over. Because America’s electricity law was written decades ago — when utilities added massive coal-fired power plants or hydroelectric dams to the grid — developers must pay the full cost of upgrading the entire local grid to accept electricity from a new project, even if that project generates relatively little electricity. These “network upgrade” costs are presented to developers as a surprise bill when they reach the end of the queue.
As the grid has gotten older and more congested, these costs have soared, Rob Gramlich, the founder and president of Grid Strategies, told me. A large solar project that costs about $180 million might now pay an extra $30 or $40 million in surprise network-upgrade costs, he said.
As these costs have rapidly increased, they have outstripped wind and solar developers’ ability to predictably budget for them. They are also sometimes large enough to kill the economics of a project.
In the Lawrence Berkeley study, researchers found that wind projects withdrawn from the queue had interconnection costs sometimes 10 times higher than projects that ultimately got built. Earlier this year, a renewable executive told The New York Times that interconnection costs have become the “no. 1 project killer.”
Those withdrawals can clog up the queue further, because proposals that cannot realistically pay the network costs slow down the process for everyone behind them.
But that could soon change. Under the new proposed guidance, at least 30% of a project’s interconnection costs could be covered by the investment tax credit, a climate-friendly subsidy in the Inflation Reduction Act.
While the investment tax credit was already known to cover small projects, the guidance suggests that it can now be used much more broadly. That could save some of the largest solar and wind projects more than $10 million.
Although this new tax credit will not address the underlying cause of high interconnection costs, it will “take the sting out of those charges,” Gramlich said, adding that it will “surely lead to many projects moving forward to construction instead of giving up and withdrawing their interconnection request.”
Utilities should like the new tax credit as well, he added, because it will help them build and own more of their own transmission lines. But the interconnection issue will only be totally solved when the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, which oversees the country’s electricity grids, writes new rules governing the process, he said.
The investment tax credit has long been one of the workhorses of American clean-energy policy. First created during the 1970s oil crisis, the tax credit initially paid businesses a 10% subsidy to switch to equipment that did not burn oil or natural gas.
The policy bumped along for decades, covering a fraction of the cost of a hodgepodge of clean-ish energy technologies. But last year, the Inflation Reduction Act made sweeping changes to the tax credit, allowing a huge array of climate-friendly energy sources to cover 30% of their costs.
The Treasury Department published draft rules governing those changes last week. The fact that the credit can now be used to pay for interconnection costs for large clean energy projects has not been previously reported.
The change rests on two terms used in the Inflation Reduction Act: “energy property” and “energy project.”
Under the climate law, an “energy property” is any kind of energy facility that qualifies for a 30% investment tax credit. A solar array, a wind turbine, and an industrial battery can all be an “energy property.” So, too, can certain types of electrical equipment — such as transformers or wiring — that might be shared across a clean energy installation.
An “energy project,” meanwhile, is defined in the law as one or more energy properties that connect to form a larger facility.
The Inflation Reduction Act made one more big change to the tax credit. Under the law, any “energy property” of less than five megawatts can have 30% of its interconnection costs covered by the investment tax credit.
This change, while celebrated by climate advocates, was previously assumed to cover only the costs of connecting a small renewable project — like a solar array on a warehouse roof — to the grid. For context, 5 megawatts is enough electricity to power perhaps 2,000 homes.
But remember that an “energy project” can be made up of several smaller and interdependent “energy properties.” So what if a solar developer, say, connected many small solar arrays — each an “energy property” — together into a single “energy project”? Would they be able to cover their interconnection costs under the law?
The new guidance says yes. Any “energy project” — even one large enough to power tens of thousands of homes — can qualify to have some of its interconnection costs covered as long as it is made up of smaller “energy properties” that are each no larger than five megawatts.
“If an energy project comprised of multiple energy properties has a combined nameplate capacity in excess of five megawatts, each of the energy properties would nonetheless be eligible to include amounts paid or incurred by the taxpayer for qualified interconnection property if each energy property satisfies the Five-Megawatt Limitation,” the guidance says.
The guidance goes on to say that the cost “to modify and upgrade the transmission system” can be covered by the tax credit even if those investments are made “at or beyond” the project’s connection to the grid.
Although the guidance is written in a technology-neutral way, it may not benefit all clean energy technologies equally. While a large solar or onshore wind farm can be broken into many five-megawatt segments, each offshore wind turbine generates more than five megawatts of electricity.
Each offshore turbine, in essence, may be too large to qualify as a standalone “energy property.” That said, the new guidance includes other changes that are more favorable to the offshore wind industry.
The guidance remains a draft proposal and has not yet been finalized. But due to an unusual attribute of federal tax law, companies can sometimes rely on proposed tax regulations as long as no final rule has yet been published.
Across the United States, more than 1.4 terawatts of proposed wind and solar projects are currently waiting in interconnection queues, according to the Berkeley National Lab study. That is more than enough to achieve President Biden’s goal of cutting power-sector carbon emissions more than 80% by 2030.
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This year’s ocean-heating phenomenon could make climate change seem less bad than it really is — at least in the U.S.
You may have heard that we could be in for a “super” or even a “super duper” El Niño this year. The difference is non-technical, a matter of how warm the sea surface temperature in the El Niño-Southern Oscillation region of the central-eastern Pacific Ocean gets. An El Niño forms when the region is at least half a degree Celsius warmer than average, which causes more heat to be released into the atmosphere and affects global weather patterns. A super El Niño describes an anomaly of 2 degrees or higher. Some models predict an anomaly of over 3 degrees higher than average for this year.
If a super El Niño forms — and that is still a big if, about a one-in-four chance — it would be the fourth such event in just over 40 years. But the impacts could be even more severe, simply because the world is hotter today than it was in the previous super El Niño years of 1983, 1998, and 2016.
“2016 would be an unusually cold year if it occurred today,” Zeke Hausfather, the climate research lead for payment processing giant Stripe and a research scientist at Berkeley Earth, told me. “1998 would be exceptionally cold.”
And yet in a strange twist, a 2026-2027 El Niño event might actually make Americans care less about climate change. Though many parts of the world are likely to get clobbered by El Niño’s characteristic combination of hotter, drier weather, the phenomenon has the potential to alleviate some of the extreme weather we’ve seen recently in the United States.
For example, warmer, wetter conditions in the southern U.S., milder winters in the north, and increased wind shear in the Atlantic hurricane basin are all classic El Niño signatures in North America.
“It may actually mean a better snow season for the Western U.S. and the mountains, hopefully recovering our snowpack if it’s not too warm,” Hausfather said. “We might benefit from higher rainfall” next winter, which could help lift widespread drought conditions in the southwest. High wind shear usually results in reduced hurricane activity in the Atlantic by depriving the storm systems of their heat engines and causing them to be too lopsided to organize into a full-blown cyclone.
Though the body of evidence for climate change remains incontrovertible, the temporary reprieve in some of its more visible effects will almost certainly make some Americans less concerned. Blame it on evolutionary biology. Brett Pelham, a social psychologist at Montgomery College who researches egocentrism and biases, told me that humans are hardwired to pay attention to the conditions happening directly around them. “That’s great if you’re living 20,000 or 80,000 years ago,” he said. “But today, we’re pumping tons of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, and it’s a recipe for disaster because people only care deeply about that problem if they feel the heat on a pretty chronic basis where they live.”
People are generally less likely to believe the planet is warming on a snowy day in March than they are in the summer, and a lower average state temperature is about as reliable a predictor of climate change skepticism as being a Republican, even when controlling for income, party affiliation, education, and age. Given that it is, in theory, easier to convince someone living in scorching hot Phoenix that greenhouse gases are warming the atmosphere than someone living by a lake in Minnesota, if an El Niño mellows out some extreme weather trends in the U.S. this year and next, it could also mellow some of the sense of urgency to act.
“It’s a definite implication of my work that day-to-day variation, monthly variation, and geographical variation matter,” Pelham said.
“If my data are true,” he added, “it’s going to be true on average that in places that have an unseasonably cool summer or winter, there’s going to be a temporary shift in the average attitude.”
Such shifts affect the average by just a few points either way — “they’re not night and day, like ‘I believed in climate change and now I don’t,’” Pelham stressed. But it’s undoubtedly ironic — and concerning — that heading into what could be one of the hottest years on the planet in recent history, Americans may be predisposed to feeling relatively safe.
Other parts of the world won’t have such luxury. Even a normal-strength El Niño, which looks all but certain to form this year, could cause major damage, from wildfires in parched Indonesia to catastrophic floods in East Africa to water rationing in South America. In Peru and Ecuador, El Niño is already a “current event,” Ángel F. Adames Corraliza, an atmospheric researcher at the University of Wisconsin-Madison and a 2025 MacArthur Fellow, told me. Warm coastal conditions off the continent — a known, albeit not guaranteed, global El Niño precursor — are causing deluges, landslides, and heat waves in the upper northwest corner of South America. “You can see how the impacts start extending towards other parts of the world until it reaches us,” he said.
It is possible to combat local biases. Pelham told me other researchers have found that images can break through our egocentrism. So “if we see more pictures of melting glaciers or waters rising in our own backyards, we would start to say, ‘Oh my goodness, we really have to do something about this global problem,” he said.
But to that end, coverage of climate change that might have this effect is becoming rarer. Stories about global warming have dropped about 38% since 2021; even people working in climate-related industries have “a kind of exhaustion with ‘climate’ as the right frame through which to understand the fractious mixture of electrification, pollution reduction, clean energy development, and other goals that people who care about climate change actually pursue,” my colleague Robinson Meyer wrote based on the results of latest Heatmap Insiders Survey.
Of course, there is no promise that the U.S. will skirt disaster because of El Niño. Increased rainfall means more floods and landslides; if the El Niño pushes temperatures up too high, snowpack will once again be an issue next winter. All it takes is one big hurricane forming and making landfall for it to be considered a bad storm year, which is as much a roll of the dice as anything else. And because El Niño releases ocean heat into the atmosphere, the periods immediately following it are often about two-tenths of a degree Celsius warmer, increasing the severity of heat waves and droughts. Compounded by climate change, that puts 2027 on track to be potentially the hottest year the planet has seen in human history.
“We might be at 1.45 degrees Celsius [above preindustrial levels] next year from human activity, and we might end up at 1.65 degrees because there’s a very strong El Niño,” Hausfather said. But for context, “we are seeing that much warmth added to the climate system from human activity roughly every decade,” he told me. That is, “— we’re adding a permanent super El Niño-worth of heat to the climate system” via the continued burning of fossil fuels.
There couldn’t be a worse time to let up on our collective sense of climate urgency, to put it mildly. But if El Niño makes conditions in the U.S. appear any better, then even if there’s disaster elsewhere, “you’re going to give a sigh of relief,” Pelham predicted. “You’re going to feel like [climate change is] not as bad as people have hyped it up to be.”
Current conditions: Wildfires are raging across the Southeast, with more than 27,000 acres alight in southern Georgia alone • At least two separate blazes have also broken out in Japan’s northeastern Iwate prefecture • A late blizzard is dumping as much as 20 inches of snow on northern Manitoba, Canada.
Yet another French energy giant is lining up for a payout from the Trump administration to abandon its offshore wind projects in the United States. Utility giant Engie is in talks with the federal government about a “possible refund” for its U.S. offshore wind leases as President Donald Trump looks to halt expansion of an energy source that’s quickly growing in Europe and Asia. Since Trump returned to office last year, the company has paused development on three offshore wind projects and already took a loss on its joint venture Ocean Winds. In an interview with Reuters, Engie CEO Catherine MacGregor confirmed that the utility was pursuing the kind of deal that French oil and gas giant TotalEnergies negotiated in recent weeks. “We’ll see about these terms. An agreement is possible depending on the discussions.” She noted that she wasn’t against offshore wind. “Economically and also in terms of public acceptance, I strongly believe in offshore wind power. Of course, you have to plan the projects well, you have to involve the fishermen,” she added. Still, “new offshore wind projects are going to be complicated regardless of the administration.”
The $1 billion TotalEnergies deal may also stand on shaky ground. As Heatmap’s Emily Pontecorvo reported in back-to-back scoops, documents suggest the Trump administration’s legal argument for drawing on a federal settlement fund rests on shaky ground. Other documents show that TotalEnergies isn't required to make any new investments in U.S. oil and gas under the agreement, contrary to what Trump officials said about the deal.

Long accused of maintaining an overcapacity of factories to churn out solar panels, China’s photovoltaic output is now in soaring demand as the world scrambles to cope with the energy shock brought on by the Iran War’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz. New data from the think tank Ember shows that China’s solar exports reached a record 68 gigawatts in March, double the previous month. When Ember analyzed the Chinese customs authority data, its researchers found that the exports are equivalent to Spain’s entire solar capacity, surpassing the previous record set in August 2025 by 49%. At least 50 countries — you read that right — set all-time records for Chinese solar imports in March, with another 60 seeing the highest levels in six months. Compared to February numbers (the war began on February 28), Chinese solar exports grew by 141% to India, 384% to Malaysia, 391% to Ethiopia, and 519% to Nigeria.
“Fossil shocks are boosting the solar surge,” Euan Graham, senior analyst at Ember, said in a statement. “Solar has already become the engine of the global economy, and now the current fossil fuel price shocks are taking it up a gear. Countries are importing solar panels at record levels, and building up their own domestic assembly and manufacturing capabilities to address surging global demand.”
Elon Musk is betting even bigger on artificial intelligence. Tesla plans to boost spending to $25 billion this year as the electric automaker cum battery and solar giant invests in self-driving taxis, zero-emissions trucks, robots, and a sweeping new chip factory to power its AI ambitions. During a call with investors on Thursday, Musk said there would be a “very significant increase in capital expenditure” this year, which “will be well justified considering substantially increased revenue streams,” according to the Financial Times. The forecast is nearly triple the $8.5 billion Tesla spent last year.
The shift comes as the U.S. faces what Heatmap contributor Andrew Moseman called the “great American EV contraction” that took place after the Trump administration ended federal tax credits for electric vehicles last fall.
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In a nuclear industry filled with startups promising to reinvent the reactor, Blue Energy stands out as a company promising instead to transform how good old-fashioned light water reactors are built. The firm wants to prefabricate its small modular reactors in a factory, making each one as uniform and replicable as possible. “For the first time, a nuclear project is designed so that it doesn’t need to rely primarily on taxpayer dollars and ratepayers to backstop risk,” Jake Jurewicz, Blue Energy chief executive and co-founder, told S&P Global. In a press release, Jurewicz called its forthcoming debut facility, a 1.5-gigawatt complex in Texas, “the first project-financeable nuclear plant.”
Shares in GE Vernova spiked 14% on Wednesday after the energy industrial giant reported surging demand for its gas turbines and nuclear reactors to power the AI boom in its latest quarterly earnings. As I told you yesterday, GE Vernova’s head of government affairs and policy, Roger Martella, said this week that the project to build North America’s first small modular reactor at Ontario Power Generation’s Darlington plant was on track to produce power by 2030. In a note to investors, the investment bank Jeffries said soaring gas demand and “green-shoots for nuclear” sent the price upward.
If online gambling services like Kalshi and Polymarket allow people to bet on something, do the incentives for the worse outcome change? Turns out, obviously, the answer is yes. Just consider this example. Polymarket allowed people to bet on daily temperatures from some official weather stations. Now Météo-France, the official French meteorological agency, is accusing someone of using an artificial heat source to manipulate reads at a station and win bets.
Rob dives into Fervo’s S-1 filing with Princeton professor Jesse Jenkins and Heatmap’s Matthew Zeitlin.
Fervo Energy has become a darling of the clean energy industry by using workers and technology from the oil and gas sector to unlock zero-carbon, all-day geothermal electricity. Last week, Fervo filed to go public, giving us the first deep look at its finances and long-term expansion plans. What’s the bull case, the bear case, and the fine print?
On this week’s episode of Shift Key, Rob is joined by Jesse Jenkins, a professor of energy systems engineering at Princeton University, as well as Heatmap’s Matthew Zeitlin to discuss the big news from Fervo’s new filing. Why are people so excited about Fervo? What are the biggest financial questions in its growth plans? And why does it need to go public now?
Shift Key is hosted by Robinson Meyer, the founding executive editor of Heatmap News.
Subscribe to “Shift Key” and find this episode on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Amazon, or wherever you get your podcasts.
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Here is an excerpt of their conversation:
Robinson Meyer: Jesse, one of the things that people are most excited about with Fervo — and one of the things, frankly, that you got me excited about with regard to Fervo and other enhanced geothermal companies — is that this is dispatchable power. It’s not only that it’s 24-7, but much like like we currently flex gas plants up or down to meet demand on the grid, we might be able to flex geothermal plants up and down. Can you just describe like how that would work and why it’s important to kind of overall value of this energy technology?
Jesse Jenkins: Yeah, so most people think of geothermal as a kind of zero marginal cost resource. It has no fuel cost, right? It’s producing power that’s on the margin, basically free. And so it would make sense to operate it like a “baseload resource” running 24-7, because why would you ever turn off?
The reality is that if you are deploying geothermal in a world with lots of cheap solar, for example, or wind in other parts of the West, there are many hours when power is literally worthless or very inexpensive, right? You’ve got wind and solar flooding the market at also zero marginal cost. And so producing power in those hours, you can do it, but why would you? It’s not valuable. When it’s valuable is the times when the sun is setting and the wind is dying down and you would otherwise have to fire up gas power plants.
So one of the cool things about enhanced geothermal is that you’re basically engineering a fracture network inside a very impermeable rock, right? You basically have a container around it of granite. And that means that very little fluid or pressure will leak out of the reservoir if you inject more fluid into it. And so you’ve basically built yourself a pumped hydrate reservoir underground for free, because that’s what you needed to create your heat exchanger to get the heat out for your power plant.
You can find a full transcript of the episode here.
Mentioned:
From Heatmap: 8 Things We Learned From Fervo’s IPO Filing
Jesse’s report on how to scale geothermal nationwide through experience-induced cost reductions
Jesse’s report on how geothermal can be a flexible resource, like natural gas
This episode of Shift Key is sponsored by ...
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Music for Shift Key is by Adam Kromelow.