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A new paper from two Harvard researchers shows how these mega-users are disrupting the traditional regulatory structure.

Who pays for a data center? The first answer is the investors and developers who are planning on pouring billions of dollars into building out power-hungry facilities to serve all sorts of internet services, especially artificial intelligence. And how much will it cost them? The numbers thrown around have a kind of casual gigantism that makes levelheaded evaluation difficult. $80 billion? $100 billion? $500 billion?
But while technology companies are paying for the chips and the systems that do the work of artificial intelligence, it may be normal people and businesses — homeowners, barbershops, schools — that end up paying for at least some of the electricity and system upgrades necessary to bring these facilities online.
That’s the argument made by Harvard Law School lecturer Ari Peskoe and Eliza Martin, a fellow at the school’s Environmental and Energy Law Program, of which Peskoe is a part. Their paper, published Thursday, is titled, “Extracting Profits from the Public: How Utility Ratepayers Are Paying for Big Tech’s Power.”
The core argument is this: The cost of maintaining and expanding the electricity distribution system is shared by all ratepayers — retail, business, and industrial — through a process governed by state public utility commissions. Utilities, meanwhile, have a legal mandate to serve everyone in their territory and a captive customer base of ratepayers, but they also compete among themselves for the business of energy-hungry customers, who can pick and choose where they set up shop. These customers often require new investment in grid infrastructure, which utilities pay for by asking state regulators to approve higher electricity rates — for everyone.
From there the conflict is clear: Utilities will want to attract big customers, and may sacrifice their retail customers in order to do so. And lately, with the AI boom booming, there are more of these big customers than at any other time in recent memory.
“Utilities’ narrow focus on expanding to serve a handful of big tech companies … breaks the mold of traditional utility rates that are premised on spreading the costs of beneficial system expansion to all ratepayers,” Peskoe and Martin write.
The traditional model of utility regulation is built on the premise that all ratepayers should pay for grid improvements, such as new transmission lines or substations, because all will benefit from them. This dynamic is disrupted, however, when it comes to customers demanding a gigawatt or more of power, the authors write. “The very same rate structures that have socialized the costs of reliable power delivery are now forcing the public to pay for infrastructure designed to supply a handful of exceedingly wealthy corporations,” the paper says.
“The assumption behind all this is that these are broadly beneficial projects that are going to benefit energy users generally,” Peskoe told me. “But I think that assumption is a bit out of date,” pointing to an example in Virginia of a $23 million grid infrastructure project retail customers paid for half of despite it being solely necessitated by the data center.
Peskoe and Martin set out an “alternative approach,” whereby data centers will power themselves — that is, outside of the utility system — and become a “formidable counterweight to utilities’ monopoly power.” In addition to being a more fair structure for the average customer, the authors also hope it will mark a “return to the pro-market advocacy that characterized the Big Tech’s power-sector lobbying efforts prior to the ChatGPT-inspired AI boom.”
While this approach would be a major challenge to almost a century of utility regulation, Peskoe and Martin also set out some more modest options, such as having state regulators “condition service to new data centers on a commitment to flexible operations.” That proposal cites research from Duke University — and featured previously in Heatmap — showing that a commitment by data centers to power down for a small portion of every year could allow utilities to avoid having to build billions of dollars worth of new infrastructure to serve the peak demand of the system.
The barrier to this approach is that utilities “have historically been hostile to regulatory attempts to require measures that would defer or avoid the need for costly infrastructure upgrades that drive utilities’ profits,” Peskoe and Martin argue. While the enormous investment in data centers is novel, Peskoe told me that the core issue of utilities using their captive ratepayers as a checkbook in order to pursue big fish customers is right at the heart of the utility playbook.
“A lot of this is baked into the utility business model,” Peskoe said. “The incentives to deploy capital and the ability to shift costs among consumer groups are unique to utilities.”
But just as utilities have a unique business model whereby investor-owned businesses are granted monopolies, they also have a unique regulatory structure. (Apple doesn’t have to go to a board appointed by a governor to get approval to hike the price of the iPhone.) This setup gives regulators unique powers — and unique responsibilities — to patrol and restrict utilities taking advantage of ratepayers, Peskoe said.
“Regulators can try to police this stuff. It's hard. But that's one of the goals of utility regulation, is to try to police these poorly designed incentives,” Peskoe said.
“None of the consequences are baked in, but some of the basic mechanisms and incentives are just inherent and not unique to data centers.” What is unique to data centers in this moment, Peskoe added, “is just the scale of this growth, and therefore the potential scale of these cost shifts.”
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The move would mark a significant escalation in Trump’s hostility toward climate diplomacy.
The United States is departing the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, the overarching treaty that has organized global climate diplomacy for more than 30 years, according to the Associated Press.
The withdrawal, if confirmed, marks a significant escalation of President Trump’s war on environmental diplomacy beyond what he waged in his first term.
Trump has twice removed the U.S. from the Paris Agreement, a largely nonbinding pact that commits the world’s countries to report their carbon emissions reduction goals on a multi-year basis. He most recently did so in 2025, after President Biden rejoined the treaty.
But Trump has never previously touched the UNFCCC. That older pact was ratified by the Senate, and it has served as the institutional skeleton for all subsequent international climate diplomacy, including the Paris Agreement.
The United States was a founding member of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change. It first joined the treaty in 1992, when President George H.W. Bush signed the pact and lawmakers unanimously ratified it.
Every other country in the world belongs to the UNFCCC. By withdrawing from the treaty, the U.S. would likely be locked out of the Conference of the Parties, the annual UN summit on climate change. It could also lose any influence over UN spending to drive climate adaptation in developing countries.
It remains unclear whether another president could rejoin the framework convention without a Senate vote.
As of 6 p.m. Eastern on Wednesday, the AP report cited a U.S. official who spoke on condition of anonymity because the news had not yet been announced.
The Trump administration has yet to confirm the departure. On Wednesday afternoon, the White House posted a notice to its website saying that the U.S. would leave dozens of UN groups, including those that “promote radical climate policies,” without providing specifics. The announcement was taken down from the White House website after a few minutes.
The White House later confirmed the departure from 31 UN entities in a post on the social network X, but did not list the groups in question.
Bloom Energy is riding the data center wave to new heights.
Fuel cells are back — or at least one company’s are.
Bloom Energy, the longtime standard-bearer of the fuel cell industry, has seen its share of ups and downs before. Following its 2018 IPO, its stock price shot up to over $34 before falling to under $3 a share in October 2019, then soared to over $42 in the COVID-era market euphoria before falling again to under $10 in 2024. Its market capitalization has bounced up and down over the years, from an all time low of less than $1 billion in 2019 and further struggles in early 2020 after it was forced to restate years of earnings thanks to an accounting error after already struggling to be profitable, up again to more than $7 billion in 2021 amidst a surge of interest in backup power.
The stock began soaring (again) in the middle of last year as anything and everything plausibly connected to artificial intelligence was going vertical. Today, Bloom Energy is trading at more than $111 a share, with a market cap north of $26 billion — and that’s after a dramatic fall from its all-time high price of over $135 per share, reached in November. By contrast, Southwest Airlines is worth around $22 billion; Edison International, the parent company of Southern California Edison, is worth about $22.5 billion.
This is all despite Bloom recording regular losses according to generally accepted accounting principles, although its quarterly revenue has risen by over 50%, and its reported non-GAAP and adjusted margins and profits have grown considerably. The company has signed deals or deployed its fuel cells with Oracle, the utility AEP, Amazon Web Services, gas providers, the network infrastructure company Equinix, the real estate developer Brookfield, and the artificial intelligence infrastructure company CoreWeave, Bloom’s chief executive and founder, KR Sridhar, said in its October earnings call.
While fuel cells have been pitched for decades as a way to safely use hydrogen for energy, fuel cells can also run on natural gas or biogas, which the company has seized on as a way to ride the data center boom. Bloom leadership has said that the company will double its manufacturing capacity by the end of this year, which it says will “support” a projected four-fold annual revenue increase. “The AI build-outs and their power demands are making on-site power generated by natural gas a necessity,” Sridhar said during the earnings call.
To get a sense of how euphoric perception of Bloom Energy has been, Morgan Stanley bumped its price target from $44 dollars a share to $85 on September 16 — then just over a month later, bumped it again to $155, calling the company “one of our favorite ‘time to power’ stocks given its available capacity and near-term expansion plans.”
Bloom has also won plaudits from semiconductor and data center industry analysts. The research firm SemiAnalysis described Bloom’s fuel cells as a “a fairly niche solution [that] is now taking an increasingly large share of the pie.”
It’s been a long journey from green tech darling to AI infrastructure for Bloom Energy — and fuel cells as a technology.
Bloom was founded in 2001, originally as Ion America, and quickly attracted high profile Silicon Valley investors. By 2010, fuel cells (and Bloom) were still being pitched as the generation source of the future, with The New York Times reporting in 2010 that Bloom had “spent nearly a decade developing a new variety of solid oxide fuel cell, considered the most efficient but most technologically challenging fuel-cell technology.” That product launch followed some $400 million in funding, and Bloom would hit an almost $3 billion valuation in 2011.
By 2016, however, when the company first filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission to sell shares to the public, it was being described by the Wall Street Journal as “a once-ballyhooed alternative energy startup,” in an article that said the fuel cell industry had been an “elusive target for decades, with a succession of companies unable to realize its business potential.” The company finally went public in 2018 at a valuation of $1.6 billion.
Then came the AI boom.
Fuel cells don’t use combustion to generate power, instead combining oxygen ions with hydrogen from natural gas and generating emissions of carbon dioxide and water, albeit without the particulate pollution of other forms of fossil-fuel-based electricity generation. This makes the process of getting permits from the Environmental Protection Agency “significantly smoother and easier than that of combustion generators,” SemiAnalysis wrote in a report.
In today’s context, Bloom’s fuel cells are yet another on-site, behind-the-meter natural gas power solution for data centers. “The rapid expansion of AI data centers in the U.S. is colliding with grid bottlenecks, driving operators to adopt BTM generation for speed-to-power and resilience to their modularity, fast deployment, and ability to handle volatile AI workloads,” Jefferies analyst Dushyant Ailani wrote in a note to clients. “Natural gas reciprocating engines, Batteries, and Bloom fuel cells are emerging as a preferred solution due to their modularity, fast deployment, and ability to handle volatile AI workloads.”
SemiAnalysis estimates that capital expenditure for Bloom fuel cells are substantially higher than those for gas turbines on a kilowatt-hour basis — $3,000 to $4,000 for fuel cells, compared to between $1,500 and $2,500 for turbines. But where the company excels is in speed. “The big turbines are sold out for four or five years,” Maheep Mandloi, an analyst at Mizuho Securities, told me. “The smaller ones for behind the meter for one to two years. These guys can deliver, if needed, within 90 days.”
Like other data center-related companies, Bloom has faced some local opposition, though not a debilitating amount. In Hilliard, Ohio, the state siting board overrode concerns about the deployment of more than 200 fuel cells at an AWS facility.
Bloom is also far from the only company that has realigned itself to ride the AI wave. Caterpillar, which makes simple turbine systems largely for the oil and gas industry, has become a data center darling, while the major turbine manufacturers Mitsubishi, Siemens Energy, and GE Vernova have all seen dramatic increases in their stock price in the last year. Korean industrial conglomerate Doosan is now developing a new large-scale turbine. Even the supersonic jet startup Boom is developing a gas turbine for data centers.
While artificial intelligence — or at least artificial intelligence companies — promises unforeseen technological and scientific advancements, so far it’s being powered by the technological and scientific advancements of the past.
On AI forecasts, California bills, and Trump’s fusion push
Current conditions: The intense rain pummeling Southern California since the start of the new year has subsided, but not before boosting Los Angeles’ total rainfall for the wet season that started in October a whopping 343% above the historical average • The polar vortex freezing the Great Lakes and Northeast is moving northward, allowing temperatures in Chicago to rise nearly 20 degrees Fahrenheit • The heat wave in southern Australia is set to send temperatures soaring above 113 degrees.

It’s not the kind of thing anyone a decade ago would have imagined: a communique signed by most of Western Europe’s preeminent powers condemning Washington’s efforts to seize territory from a fellow NATO ally. But in the days since the United States launched a surprise raid on Venezuela and arrested its long-time leader Nicolás Maduro, President Donald Trump has stepped up his public lobbying of Denmark to cede sovereignty over Greenland to the U.S. Senator Thom Tillis, the North Carolina Republican, and Senator Jeanne Shaheen, the Democrat from New Hampshire, put out a rare bipartisan statement criticizing the White House’s pressure campaign on Denmark, “one of our oldest and most reliable allies.” While Stephen Miller, Trump’s hard-line deputy chief of staff, declined to rule out an invasion of Greenland during a TV appearance this week, The Wall Street Journal reported Tuesday that Secretary of State Marco Rubio told lawmakers that the goal of the administration’s recent threats against the autonomously-governed Arctic island were to press Denmark into a sale.
The U.S. unsuccessfully tried acquiring Greenland multiple times during the 20th century, and invaded the island during World War II to prevent the Nazis from gaining a North American foothold after Denmark fell in the blitzkrieg. Indeed, Washington purchased the U.S. Virgin Islands, its second largest Caribbean territory, shortly after the 1898 Spanish-American war that brought Puerto Rico under American control. But the national-security logic of taking Greenland now, when the U.S. already maintains a military base there, is difficult to parse. “Greenland already is in the U.S. sphere of influence,” Columbia University political scientist Elizabeth N. Saunders wrote in a post on Bluesky. “It’s far cheaper for the U.S., in material, security, and reputational terms, to have Denmark continue administering Greenland and work within NATO on security.” One potential reason Trump might want the territory, as Heatmap’s Jael Holzman wrote last fall, is to access Greenland’s mineral wealth. But the logistics of getting rare earths out of both the ground and the Arctic to refineries in the U.S. are challenging. Meanwhile, in other imperialistic activities, Trump said Tuesday evening in a post on Truth Social that Venezuela would cede between 30 million and 50 million barrels of oil to the U.S., though the legal mechanism for such a transfer remains murky, according to The New York Times.
I told you last month about the in-house market monitor at the PJM Interconnection, the country’s largest power grid, urging federal regulators to prevent more data centers coming online within its territory until it can sort out how to reliably supply them with electricity. As Heatmap’s Matthew Zeitlin wrote days later, “everyone wants to know PJM’s data center plan.” On Tuesday, E&E News reported that PJM is expected to ratchet down its forecasts for how much power demand artificial intelligence will add on the East Coast. When the grid operator’s latest analysis of future needs comes out later this month, PJM Chief Operating Officer Stu Bresler said during a call last month that the projections for mid-2027 will be “appreciably lower” than the current forecast.
The merger of the parent company of Trump’s TruthSocial website and the nuclear fusion developer TAE Technologies, as I reported in this newsletter last month, is “flabbergasting” to analysts. And yet the pair’s partnership is advancing. On Tuesday, the companies announced that site selection was underway for a pilot-scale power plant set to begin construction later this year. The first facility would generate just 50 megawatts of electricity. But the companies said future plants are expected to pump out as much as 500 megawatts of power.
Meanwhile, the rival startup widely seen as the frontrunner to build America’s first fusion plant unveiled new deals of its own. Over at the CES 2026 electronics show in Las Vegas on Tuesday, Commonwealth Fusion Systems — which analysts say is taking a more simplified and straightforward pathway to commercializing fusion power than TAE — touted a new deal with microchip giant Nvidia and told the crowd at the conference that it had installed the first magnet at its pilot reactor, TechCrunch reported.
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Scott Wiener, the California state senator making a bid for Representative Nancy Pelosi’s long-held House seat, introduced two new bills he said were designed to ease rising energy costs. The first bill is meant to “get rid of a bunch of that red tape” that makes installing a heat pump expensive and challenging in the state, the Democrat explained in a video posted on Bluesky. The second piece of legislation would clear the way for renters to install small, plug-in solar panels on apartment balconies. “Right now, in California, it is way, way, way too hard, if not impossible, to install these kinds of units,” Wiener said. “We have to make energy more affordable for people.”
Sunrun is forming a new joint venture with the green infrastructure investor HASI to finance deployment of at least 300 megawatts of solar across what the companies billed as “more than 40,000 home power plants across the country.” As part of the deal, which closed last month, HASI will invest $500 million over an 18-month period into the new company, allowing the nation’s largest solar installer to “retain a significant long-term ownership position” in the projects. As I reported for exclusively Heatmap in October, a recent analysis by the nonprofit Permit Power, which advocates for easing red tape on rooftop solar, found that the cost of solar panels in the U.S. was far higher than in Australia or Germany due to bureaucratic rules. The HASI investment will help bring down the costs for Sunrun directly as it installs more panels.
Total U.S. utility-scale solar installations for 2025 were on track last month to beat the previous year, as I reported in this newsletter. But the phaseout of federal tax credits next year is set to dim the industry somewhat as projects race to start construction before the expiration date.
In another session at CES 2026, the electric transportation company Donut Labs claimed it’s made an affordable, energy-dense solid state battery that’s powering a new motorcycle and charges in just five minutes. The startup hasn’t yet produced any independent verification of those promises. But the company is known for what InsideEVs called its “sci-fi wheel-in electric motor” for its bikes.