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Rob goes deep on one of the most intriguing — and consequential — questions of the energy transition with Breakthrough Energy’s Alice Yake.

How do utilities decide what they want — and need — to build? It’s one of the most important problems driving the data center and clean energy conversations right now. But it’s hard to get a sense of what constraints and ideas actually drive utility decisionmaking from the inside.
Alice Yake is the vice president of GRIDS at Breakthrough Energy, and the former senior vice president of system strategy and chief planning officer at Xcel Energy in Colorado. On this episode of Shift Key, she walks us through a half century of the grid’s biggest decisions — what constraints utilities and planners thought they faced, what choices they made, and what it means for the future. She also discusses Breakthrough’s work to build an open-source grid planning tool and how it could
Shift Key is hosted by Robinson Meyer, the founding executive editor of Heatmap News.
Subscribe to “Shift Key” and find this episode on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Amazon, or wherever you get your podcasts.
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Here is an excerpt from their conversation:
Robinson Meyer: We tell a story about liquified natural gas being ... The U.S. was preparing to import a ton of LNG, correct? That’s why we built a lot of terminals. And then after fracking happened and we were able to access gas and shale, we had to reverse-engineer all of them so that we could export LNG. But of course, we expected all these power plants to fall off the map, too.
Alice Yake: Exactly. And so that’s why we ended up with a system that was overbuilt. And, you know, different stories, people like to demonize — it’s like, the utilities push this. No, it was a national call to action because of this hypothesis around the availability of this type of fuel. And those plants were no longer going to be assets that we could use. So now we end up in this situation where we’re at the tail end of the energy crisis, we’ve overbuilt the system, and we’re investing in efficiency. And so therefore, then we don’t need as much and we’ve overbuilt. So we have a lot of time to grow into this. But prices went up because all that capital had been spent, right? And the prices went up. And so therefore, people started looking at, well, what can we do about this? Well, how do we build a market that makes the prices come down or have people compete? And so a lot of this was happening at the same time. You saw telecom deregulate. You saw other industries — you know, pipeline infrastructure. You know, all of those things were happening. This was the grand idea at that point in time that this was going to save people money.
I would argue it did in some places, it didn’t in others, right? And we’ve learned from that as well. But then it stabilized because how much have people really paid attention to their electric bill in the past 20 years? Not a ton, right? When we have bad storms or there’s some kind of excursion or maybe natural gas prices spiked or something along those, that’s when they were looking at it. I remember coming into the utility sector 15 years ago and one of the comments was, what’s the average amount of time that people spend thinking about their utility? It was 12 minutes a year, 12 minutes a year, one minute a month when they had to pay their bill and whether that was writing a check. And then when it got automated, you know, it was even smaller. It was maybe doing your budgeting every month, one minute a month. So that tells you a lot about how stable it was, right? And also where prices were.
Now you can’t go a day without seeing a headline about rising energy prices and what’s happening. And so moving forward through time, where we got to was, is, we had all this infrastructure. So we really, we didn’t have to be good at building a whole lot anymore. We didn’t build a ton of plants. If you look at the grass or the transmission infrastructure, but we know that we need it. And we also know that it’s aged now because do your math. If you go back, it was built in the 1970s and 80s. We’re now looking at things that are on average, 55 years old with asset lives of around 60 years. So that means you have a lot of things that you have to replace.
It’s not unique to the utility sector or the energy sector either look at our highways look at our water infrastructure this is happening across the board and for those of you that are math nerds and financial out there you go back to the rules of Bondbright which are applied to utilities and straight line depreciation we had a really expensive brand new system like we were talking about in the 80s now we’ve got our 55-year-old gremlin clunker that takes a lot of maintenance investment, but we have to buy a new car. And when you buy a new car, you have to spend the new capital, right? And when you spend that new capital, you start your depreciation over. So right now we have a really old system that’s low cost, but we have to replace a ton of it.
You can find a full transcript of the episode here.
Mentioned:
California Burning, by Katherine Blunt
Jesse’s paper on uncertainty-aware grid planning in the real world
James Bonbright’s landmark work on public utility rates
This episode of Shift Key is sponsored by ...
Lunar Energy is building the technology to turn homes into active participants in the power system. Learn more about Lunar’s vision of the future at lunarenergy.com.
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Trump’s new tariffs seem to make few exemptions for clean energy.
Is this how a new wave of inflation starts?
The international crude oil benchmark leapt to $100 a barrel on Thursday, its highest level since May. The surge came after the Iran-backed Houthi group in Yemen attacked two Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea.
Those strikes pinched one of the remaining fossil-fuel export routes from the Arabian Peninsula, but they also revealed new constraints on President Trump’s Iran strategy. Throughout most of the spring, the president was able to keep a lid on oil prices by vowing to end the war that he started — and when he said he wanted a ceasefire, investors believed him. Now the White House is running out of options to end the conflict, and the president may be losing his ability to jawbone prices lower.
Now, these high prices haven’t quite hit in America yet. The U.S. oil benchmark, West Texas Intermediate, stands at $92, having increased 25% over the past month. But gasoline and diesel prices are rising fast. And in any case, Americans may be about to deal with a new one-time price hike from another source: tariffs.
The Office of the U.S. Trade Representative announced a new array of global tariffs on Thursday afternoon; the government will start levying 10% to 12.5% taxes on most imports from more than 80 countries tonight. (By the Trump administration’s own reckoning, these countries supply 99.4% of America’s imports.) The new tariff regime, which is allegedly designed to withstand the Supreme Court’s scrutiny, has some crucial exemptions, including drugs, cars, phones, planes, semiconductors, and oil and natural gas.
But it will fall heavily on goods and exporters that supply electricity and clean energy inputs to the United States. I’d love to be wrong, but on my initial read, solar panels, lithium-ion batteries, inverters, motors, and other power equipment are all covered by these new tariffs (to name a few categories). These new taxes will stack on top of the existing anti-dumping tariffs that already apply to, say, Southeast Asia-made solar panels. You have to squint for silver lining here, but perhaps there’s an upside for manufacturers: These additional tariffs won’t apply to the “critical mineral” inputs that they rely on to make some of these technologies in the U.S. Most transformers also seem to be exempt because they’re already covered under an earlier tariff regime. Alas, many other goods that manufacturers do need — such as factory equipment — will face the new levies.
The United States economy is resilient; it looked through the spring’s run-up in oil prices as well as Trump’s earlier round of trade levies. (I’m half-convinced that tariffs are likely to outlive the Trump administration, no matter what happens in the next few months, because the federal government would otherwise be starved of revenue without them.) But as my colleague Matthew Zeitlin wrote last week, we know the U.S. energy system is already wheezing under current price levels. A new surge in oil prices, a price hike for renewable energy inputs, and a continued surge in electricity demand do not set us up for a beautiful macroeconomic outcome.
The company’s latest sustainability report, shared exclusively with Heatmap, shows that carbon intensity per kilometer traveled has dropped 81% since 2019.
Lime, the electric scooter and bike-sharing company that recently raised $174 million in its initial public offering, estimates that it replaced 38 million car trips across the globe last year. Even as it helped prevent substantial vehicle pollution, though, Lime racked up about 90,000 metric tons of carbon emissions tied to its own activities.
While that number pales in comparison to the tens of millions of tons of carbon that tech companies like Microsoft and Google emit, or the hundreds of millions of tons that traditional car companies like Ford report, the point stands: Even companies producing solutions to climate change have emissions to deal with.
For such a small player, Lime has made quite a bit of progress reducing its climate impact. Since 2019, when Lime first began tracking its carbon footprint, the number of kilometers traveled by Lime’s bikes and scooters each year has grown nearly 250%, while the carbon intensity of each kilometer has decreased by 81%. All in all, Lime has reduced its total reported emissions from direct and indirect sources by 35%. The company made much of that progress in just the past two years.
According to Lime’s latest sustainability report, shared exclusively with Heatmap, its biggest recent strides came from doing something that is generally considered to be pretty difficult: It decarbonized part of its supply chain.
Most of the emissions related to Lime’s business come from activities that are not within the company’s control. Its biggest source has always been the manufacture of the vehicles and batteries it uses, and more specifically from the manufacture of aluminum, which requires a huge amount of electricity to smelt.
Lime doesn’t manufacture its own vehicles, so it had to convince its partners to find and use lower-carbon metals and batteries. “One of the strategic advantages we have is that we design our own vehicles. We’re not buying them off the shelf,” Andrew Savage, Lime’s vice president of sustainability, told me. “So we don’t own the manufacturing, but we have a large amount of input and ability to work with suppliers to modify a supply chain.”
Savage said that a significant sourcing effort in 2024 paid off in 2025, when the company increased the amount of aluminum in its products that was made using renewable electricity and sourced more batteries made with renewable power. That combination of efforts cut the company’s total capital goods-related emissions in half compared to the previous year, and reduced the carbon intensity of each Lime vehicle by more than 25%. It also didn’t cost too much, Savage told me, adding that the expenditure was “marginal enough that it has made sense for us.”
Lime has also invested in its repair capabilities, which allows the company to keep its vehicles and parts in circulation much longer and avoid buying as many new ones. This has helped to keep emissions down even as its business has grown.
Another major source of emissions for Lime is shipping and logistics — again, a part of the business that is somewhat out of its hands. Lime hires third parties to pick up its bikes and scooters from major ports, transport them to regional hubs, and then distribute them to the markets where it operates. Initially, the vehicles were transported in trucks fueled by diesel. In 2024, Lime found partners that would be able to pick up its cargo at the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach and bring them to its logistics hubs in electric drayage trucks.
The company made similar moves throughout its European business, transitioning most of its port-to-hub shipments to trucks running on a bio-based diesel fuel called HVO100, which is made from used cooking oil and other waste oils and estimated to reduce emissions by 89% compared to conventional diesel. This past year, Lime expanded its use of HVO100-fueled trucking partners to cover shipments from hubs to 16 cities.
The problem with HVO100, according to Nikita Pavlenko, the program director for fuels and aviation at the International Council on Clean Transportation, is that there will never be enough of it to fully decarbonize heavy duty trucking. “Particularly in Europe, where the transport sector is more reliant on diesel, it could never feasibly be met with waste oils entirely,” he told me. Purpose-grown crops like palm and soy could meet the increased demand for bio-based diesel, but that starts to come at the expense of land-use emissions and deforestation.
Savage was well aware of the limitations, and told me he views HVO100 as an interim solution. “We looked across Europe and somewhat shockingly found very few options on the electrification side,” he said. Even a country like Norway, which is famous for its adoption of electric vehicles, does not yet have much in the way of electric trucking and logistics, he said. “But it’s something that we absolutely expect to come in as part of our decarbonization roadmap.”
Interestingly, Lime reported that its upstream shipping and logistics emissions slightly increased in 2025 compared to 2024, although the company has cut this category in half overall since 2019. Lime attributed this to an increased use of expedited shipping for certain parts last year, but said its increased use of EVs and HVO100 helped mitigate the impacts.
Lime currently operates on five continents and in 230 cities. While it’s made some progress on low-carbon shipping within the EU and U.S., there’s still Australia, South America, and Asia to figure out. Looking ahead to next year, Savage said he wants to expand the number of markets and the amount of goods the company moves using lower-carbon vehicles. He also wants to augment the company’s repair practice.
“We view the work we’re doing on decarbonizing the business as going completely hand in hand with our mission and objective as a company,” Savage said. “It’s not a sideshow.”
A new 60-home pilot program aims to expand vehicle-to-grid charging.
When energy experts imagine the grid of the future, they often dream of millions of electric vehicles moonlighting as mobile power banks, using their hefty batteries to send electricity back to the grid when it needs a boost. But despite rapid EV adoption, this utopia has remained largely out of reach. Most vehicles don’t yet support bidirectional power flow, and most markets lack incentives for customers to feed power back to the grid in the first place.
That’s finally starting to change. While vehicle-to-grid — a.k.a. V2G — technology is still in its earliest innings, a new Massachusetts program announced on Thursday is working to make the technology something closer to commonplace. Funded by the Massachusetts Clean Energy Center, the state’s economic development agency, the initiative will install 60 bidirectional charging systems in participating residents’ homes.
The program has already begun enrolling its first participants, joining a small but growing group of V2G demonstrations across the country. But the field remains so nascent that even a 60-home project stands out. Kip Hack, who leads the distributed energy resource management company EnergyHub’s EV work, told me he very much considers it a “leading program for North America.”
The Massachusetts initiative brings together a wide variety of partners: utility companies Eversource and National Grid, EnergyHub, and technology partners Sunrun and The Mobility House, which each provide the software and device integrations needed to connect various EV models to the grid. Depending on their vehicle, eligible customers will enroll in the program through either Sunrun or The Mobility House, which will then connect them to their utility’s existing demand flexibility program, ConnectedSolutions. This decade-old initiative pays customers to reduce strain on the grid by leveraging smart thermostats, batteries, and other commercial and industrial energy systems. Now EVs will join the mix.
“They don’t actually care what the participating technology is. They only care about the output,” EnergyHub’s president, Seth Frader-Thompson told me, referring to ConnectedSolutions’ technology-agnostic design, which runs on EnergyHub’s software platform. That means the program can readily incorporate new distributed energy resources as they become available, simplifying the entire process in a way that many other regions have yet to figure out. “So when V2G technology was ready, nobody had to create a new program. You already had a program structure, an incentive structure, et cetera, that you could just have these vehicles participate in.”
Each distributed energy asset enrolled in the program can earn up to $275 per average kilowatt of grid support provided during the summer months. But customers don’t receive that payment directly from their utility. Rather Sunrun and The Mobility House set their own customer incentive structures based on that underlying $275 per kilowatt value.
Chip Silverman, Sunrun’s director of grid services and virtual power plants, told me that its customers will receive a fixed payment simply for signing up, just as the company’s stationary battery storage customers do. That gets new participants in the door — they can then earn additional performance incentives if they actually discharge power back to the grid during a demand response event. “We want to incentivize people to plug in 5:00 p.m. to 8:00 p.m. on weeknights because we want to get you to try to hit the peak events whenever possible,” Silverman told me.
The pool of qualifying vehicles remains quite limited, however. Sunrun’s system only supports the Ford F-150 Lightning, while The Mobility House’s software integrates with chargers compatible with the Kia EV9, Volvo XC90, Polestar 3, and several Nissan Leaf models. Teslas with V2G capability — which today means just the Cybertruck — are not eligible. That’s because while every other vehicle in this program places the requisite DC to AC power converter within the wall charger, Tesla installs this hardware in the car itself. While that will likely prove to be a smarter, cheaper long-term approach, for now it doesn’t align with how utilities certify and approve grid-connected equipment.
Yet even at this early stage, with limited scale and narrow eligibility requirements, Massachusetts’ early adopters are already demonstrating the technology’s value. “It has been quite hot, unseasonably hot in New England these last several weeks,” Hack told me, explaining that participants’ EV batteries have already been tapped to discharge power “more than once” since enrollment began earlier this month.
The potential for far greater impact is enormous. “The size of the battery in the car is remarkable,” Frader-Thompson told me. While a typical home battery stores around 10 to 15 kilowatt-hours of energy, an EV battery can hold on the order of 70 to 100 kilowatt-hours. “So if the vehicle is plugged in, it essentially has the ability to export the equivalent of an entire residential battery every hour during an event,” he explained.
To truly turn V2G from a promising concept into a reliable grid resource, however, utilities and grid operators will need much more data on when these batteries are available and how much power EV owners are actually willing to provide. By the end of this summer, Massachusetts’ latest experiment could offer some of the first real-world answers.