Is the Election Already Hurting Clean Energy?

Climate has not exactly been the focus in this election cycle that it was in 2020 — but the political climate could still be polarizing public opinion on clean energy.

For the latest Heatmap News poll, Embold Research surveyed more than 5,000 registered voters over two weeks in early August. When asked whether they were in favor clean energy projects in either their state, their local area, or near their own property, a majority of respondents said they were at least somewhat supportive, with declining levels of enthusiasm as the projects got closer to their homes. The responses also followed a predictable partisan gradient: 81% of Democrats supported clean energy projects “on a property near yours” compared to 28% of Republicans. But this level of support was also slightly lower than what it was in April, when Embold fielded a similar Heatmap survey.

Support went up among members of both major parties as the hypothetical projects got further away from their homes, but across the board, the numbers were lower in August than they were in April. “We have seen a slight dip in voters’ support for various types of clean energy,” Embold analyst Ben Greenfield told me. As with any poll gyration, the dip could be a “statistical blip,” Greenfield said. But it’s also “possible that this is an election year phenomenon.”

“This is something we do occasionally see — that support for various types of policies and policy-related things can change in the heat of the an election year, even if they don’t seem on their face directly related to the election,” Greenfield added. While the opinions may be transitory, however, they can have long-lasting consequences.

Opposition to clean energy projects can manifest — and matter — at both the local and national level. A Republican congressional majority, for instance, if convinced that its constituents don’t see much value in wind and solar projects, may be more aggressive in unwinding parts of the Inflation Reduction Act. Likewise, a great deal of the clean energy development activity supported by tax policy that was beefed up and extended in the Inflation Reduction Act has occurred in Republican-controlled districts and states. To the extent that local communities turn against clean energy because of its association with Democrats, it could mean a slower and dirtier transition away from fossil fuels.

Other differences between Republicans’ and Democrats’ survey answers appear to reflect not just attitudes toward clean energy in general, but also the respondents’ own values and preferences for energy projects. Even when Republicans support clean energy projects, Greenfield noted, their reasons for doing so are different from what Democrats cite.

When asked what would be a “strong” benefit of a clean energy project, the most popular answer for Republicans, garnering 47% support, was the claim that it “reduces our dependence on foreign sources of oil and gas.” Among Democrats, meanwhile, 76% picked out “combats climate change” as a benefit of clean energy, compared to 39% of independents and only 13% of Republicans. “On that question, Democrats are kind of equally interested in the economic benefits and environmental benefits, whereas Republicans are almost entirely focused on economic benefits,” Greenfield said. Donald Trump has made a point of attacking clean energy policies on economic grounds, especially wind, electric boats, and depending on the day, electric cars.

“We see lower support for wind than solar — at least rooftop solar,” Greenfield said. That could be because rooftop solar is seen as a way to save money and increase one’s own personal resilience, as opposed to a more purely environmental choice like wind power.

“We found that there’s more support for incentives for clean power plants, home renovations, building of factories in the U.S.,” Greenfield also noted, suggesting that clean energy policies with a more obvious economic nexus may be more popular than ones that are seen as more purely to do with climate change.

While Trump modulates his views on EVs seemingly depending on how he feels about Elon Musk that day, there’s good evidence that one reason he attacked them in the past is that he knew his supporters would like to hear it. When asked whether they thought installing a variety of clean energy technologies in their home would improve or diminish their quality of life, more than half of Republicans said an electric car would make their quality of life “much worse,” compared to just 5% of Democrats; over 50% of Democrats said an electric car would make their quality of life better.

“Any time we talk about EVs, we see lower levels of support and stronger opposition among Republicans than you might expect people to have about a type of car,” Greenfield told me. “The big difference is the partisan difference on the environmental benefit and whether that is important. Clean energy tends to be a Democratic coded issue. That is clearly driving a lot of the partisan difference.”

The Heatmap poll of 5,202 American adults was conducted by Embold Research via online responses from August 3 to 16, 2024. The survey included interviews with Americans in all 50 states and Washington, D.C. The margin of sampling error is plus or minus 1.4 percentage points.