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A glimmer of hope, courtesy of climate diplomacy.
The past couple years have seen escalating tensions between China and the United States. On the one hand, the brutally repressive nature of the Chinese government has become undeniable, with the crushing of protests in Hong Kong and the ongoing cultural genocide against the Uyghur people in Xinjiang. On the other, the Biden administration has tightened Trump-era technology controls intended to prevent China from developing cutting-edge expertise in semiconductors, as well as other trade restrictions. Chinese and Taiwanese fighter jets are routinely getting into squabbles over Taiwan’s airspace.
It sure looks like another cold war is developing. However, we saw an unexpected diplomatic bright spot during U.S.-China talks this week, when both countries agreed to take steps to triple the world’s renewable energy capacity by 2030, and to cut emissions from power production over the same period. As Lisa Friedman writes at The New York Times, “That appears to be the first time China has agreed to specific emissions targets in any part of its economy.” That is good, and might even help defuse a full blown second cold war.
Now, the agreement did not say anything about cutting coal use, which has previously been a core U.S request. However, this isn’t as meaningful as it might seem. China does use an ungodly quantity of coal — the main reason why it now emits more than 60 percent more carbon pollution than the U.S. and the EU put together — and that is no doubt why cutting coal is not mentioned.
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But Chinese coal will be phased out regardless of any diplomatic agreement, likely sooner rather than later, for two reasons. First, power from natural gas and renewables is now considerably cheaper than that of coal, and increasingly so in the latter case as technology continues to improve. Brute market forces are the primary reason why American coal use peaked in 2007 and has since fallen by 60 percent. Coal power is simply a poor business proposition in 2023 — continuing to use it is leaving money on the table.
Second, the filth spewed forth by burning coal imposes a terrific health burden on the Chinese population. Seemingly every few months a new study is published showing air pollution is even worse than we thought. The air quality in Beijing was an international disgrace for decades; it has since been greatly improved, in part by halting the use of coal for residential heating and cooking. But according to the World Health Organization, air pollution still kills some two million Chinese annually, along with untold cases of asthma, heart disease, high blood pressure, and so on.
All that sickness is extremely expensive — costing America about $2,500 per person annually, according to one study. That’s easily enough that ending the use of fossil fuels would pay for itself over the long term even if you ignore climate change altogether.
In short, the ever-declining price of renewables, and the advancing awareness of just how costly air pollution is, have made the task of climate diplomacy far easier. No great sacrifice is required; countries must simply agree to do what is already in their best interest.
Still, the push of diplomatic agreements have their place. Actually building out a fully zero-carbon economy pencils out on paper, but will require a lot of complicated, expensive, and annoying electricity transmission and storage upgrades to deal with the intermittency of renewable power. Formal commitments can help break through the inertia.
So what is actually happening on the ground? In America, we did finally pass a serious climate bill, four decades after the undeniable proof of climate change was brought to the attention of Congress, in the form of the Inflation Reduction Act. Solar and wind investment are indeed skyrocketing, along with the domestic manufacturing industry intended to buttress that investment politically. It isn’t enough yet, but it’s a good start.
On the Chinese side, it must be admitted that China’s renewable investment wildly outstrips what America is doing, even with the IRA. China has put up 25.6 gigawatts of offshore wind, as compared to America’s pitiful 30 megawatts, or about one-thousandth as much. This year alone China will put up more solar than the entirety of America’s extant installed solar capacity. Nobody on earth does big and fast better than China.
That said, China’s planning of renewables appears to be quite haphazard, particularly on solar. As David Fickling writes at Bloomberg, the amount of solar power actually produced relative to capacity is not far from the U.K. and France — temperate countries with a lot of cloud cover. This is because thus far the bulk of China’s solar has been placed in the temperate south and east, rather than in the dry north and west. So while the volume is about right, the execution isn’t there yet.
Incidentally, this might be a worthy topic for future climate talks — America can share best practices about getting the largest number of megawatts for your solar dollar, while China can share tips about how to build big projects without taking 15 years and going over budget by 500 percent.
So I return to the incipient U.S.-China cold war. To anyone with any sense, it is plainly obvious that neither party can actually defeat the other without also devastating itself. Both countries have nuclear weapons and enormous militaries, backed by equally enormous economies. Yet those economies are also profoundly intertwined — particularly when it comes to climate, as China is by far the largest producer of solar panels. Trying to stand up a domestic renewable industry as the Biden administration is doing is one thing, but total cessation of trade would wreck both China and America, and greatly hinder the global climate transition to boot.
Some kind of 1970s-style detente is obviously called for — a rough agreement where both countries can continue to develop internally and flex some diplomatic muscle abroad, but without blowing up the status quo or getting in a shooting war.
In the social media age, where blasting out the most inflammatory and unhinged message is greatly rewarded, propaganda has arguably never been more powerful or insidious. Vladimir Putin, for instance, was reportedly convinced of a conspiracy theory (originally invented by a segment of the Lyndon LaRouche cult) that the “color revolutions” of the mid-2000s, the Arab Spring, and the Euromaidan in Ukraine, were all secretly cooked up by George Soros and the CIA, which is one reason why he was so hostile to Ukraine joining the EU.
Heading off this kind of misunderstanding with China, which is an order of magnitude more formidable than Russia at least, is critical. And one good way to do that is just to keep diplomatic contact going. Top level officials meeting face to face, where relationships can develop and understanding grow, tends to defuse the grotesque distortions of propaganda lies. It’s no guarantee, of course, but it has worked in the past. The longer serious conflict can be put off, the greater the chance of settling into a live-and-let-live pattern, and the better chance the world has to carry out the energy transition.
Read more about China:
China Could Massively Juice Its Clean Energy Industry. The World Isn’t Ready.
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On Trump’s ‘windmill’ ban, FEMA turnover, and PNW power
Current conditions: Physical activity is “discouraged” at the Grand Canyon today as temperatures climb toward 110 degrees Fahrenheit • Tropical Storm Wutip could dump 7 inches of rain in six hours over parts of Vietnam • Investigators are looking into whether this week’s triple-digit heat in Ahmedabad, India, was a factor in Thursday’s deadly plane crash.
Noah Buscher/Unsplash
President Trump said Thursday that his administration is “not going to approve windmills unless something happens that’s an emergency.” The comments — made during the White House East Room signing of legislation overturning California’s authority to set its own car pollution standards — were Trump’s clearest confirmation yet of my colleague Jael Holzman’s reporting, which this week found that “the wind industry’s worst fears are indeed coming to pass.” As Jael went on in The Fight, the Fish and Wildlife Service and the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers have “simply stopped processing wind project permit applications after Trump’s orders — and the freeze appears immovable, unless something changes.”
Trump justified the pause by adding that “we’re not going to let windmills get built because we’re not going to destroy our country any further than it’s already been destroyed,” repeating his long-held grievance that “you go and look at these beautiful plains and valleys, and they’re loaded up with this garbage that gets worse and worse looking with time.” Trump’s aesthetic objections have already blocked at least three wind projects in New York alone — a move that has impacts beyond future energy generation, Jael further notes. According to the Alliance for Clean Energy New York, the policy has impacted “more than $2 billion in capital investments, just in the land-based wind project pipeline, and there’s significant reason to believe other states are also experiencing similar risks.” Read Jael’s full report here.
Turnover at the Federal Emergency Management Agency continued this week after the head of the National Response Coordination Center — responsible for overseeing the federal response to major storms — submitted his resignation, CBS News reported Thursday. Jeremy Greenberg, who’s worked various roles at FEMA for nearly a decade, will stay on for another two weeks but ultimately depart less than a month into hurricane season. “He’s irreplaceable,” one current FEMA official told CBS News, adding that “the brain drain continues and the public will pay for it.” Greenberg’s resignation follows comments President Trump made to the press earlier this week about the need to “wean off of FEMA” after hurricane season is over in November. “A governor should be able to handle” disaster response, the president told reporters on Tuesday, “and frankly, if they can’t handle it, the aftermath, then maybe they shouldn’t be governor.”
Also on Thursday, President Trump issued a presidential memorandum revoking a $1 billion Biden-era agreement to restore salmon and invest in tribally sponsored clean energy infrastructure in the Columbia River Basin, The Seattle Times reports. Biden’s agreement had “placed concerns about climate change above the nation’s interests in reliable energy sources,” the White House claimed.
The 2023 agreement resulted from three decades of opposition to the dams on the Lower Snake River by local tribes and environmental groups. While the Biden administration hadn’t committed to a dam removal, it did present a potential pathway to do so, since Washington State politicians have said that hydropower would need to be replaced by another power source before they’d consider a dam removal plan. The government’s billion-dollar investment would have aided in the construction of up to 3 gigawatts of alternative renewable energy in the region. Kurt Miller, the CEO of the Northwest Public Power Association, celebrated Trump’s action, saying, “In an era of skyrocketing electricity demand, these dams are essential to maintaining grid reliability and keeping energy bills affordable.” But Washington Senator Patty Murray, a Democrat, vowed to fight the “grievously wrong” decision, arguing, “Donald Trump doesn’t know the first thing about the Northwest and our way of life — so of course, he is abruptly and unilaterally upending a historic agreement.”
Two years after we wrote the eulogy for the Chevrolet Bolt EV — “the cheap little EV we need” — General Motors has announced that it will launch the second generation of the car for the 2027 model year. Though “no other details were provided about this next iteration of the Bolt,” Car and Driver wrote that “we expect it to continue as a tall subcompact hatchback, although it could be positioned as a subcompact SUV like the previous generation's EUV model.” A reveal could be coming in the next several months ahead of a likely on-sale date in mid-2026.
Energy developer Scale Microgrids announced Thursday that its latest round of financing, which closed at $275 million, has brought its total to date to over $1 billion. KeyBanc Capital Markets, Cadence Bank, and New York Green Bank led the round, with Greg Berman, the managing director in KeyBanc Capital Markets Utilities, saying in a statement, “We value our relationship with Scale and congratulate their team as they execute on their strategy to deliver high-quality distributed energy assets to the market.” Scale Microgrids said the financing will “support 140 megawatts of distributed generation projects, including microgrids, community-scale solar and storage, and battery storage installations,” many of which are already under construction in the Northeast and California.
“Our best chance is to get a group of critical mass of Republican senators to go to [Senate Majority Leader John] Thune and [Senate Finance Committee Chair Mike] Crapo and say, You’ve got to change this. We can’t vote for it the way it is.” —Democratic Majority Leader Chuck Schumer in conversation with Heatmap’s Robinson Meyer about the Senate math and strategy behind saving the Inflation Reduction Act.
And more of the week’s top news about renewable energy fights.
1. Jefferson County, New York – Two solar projects have been stymied by a new moratorium in the small rural town of Lyme in upstate New York.
2. Sussex County, Delaware – The Delaware legislature is intervening after Sussex County rejected the substation for the offshore MarWin wind project.
3. Clark County, Indiana – A BrightNight solar farm is struggling to get buy-in within the southern region of Indiana despite large 650-foot buffer zones.
4. Tuscola County, Michigan – We’re about to see an interesting test of Michigan’s new permitting primacy law.
5. Marion County, Illinois – It might not work every time, but if you pay a county enough money, it might let you get a wind farm built.
6. Renville County Minnesota – An administrative law judge has cleared the way for Ranger Power’s Gopher State solar project in southwest Minnesota.
7. Knox County, Nebraska – I have learned this county is now completely banning new wind and solar projects from getting permits.
8. Fresno County, California – The Golden State has approved its first large-scale solar facility using the permitting overhaul it passed in 2022, bypassing local opposition to the project. But it’s also prompting a new BESS backlash.
A conversation with Robb Jetty, CEO of REC Solar, about how the developer is navigating an uncertain environment.
This week I chatted with REC Solar CEO Robb Jetty, who reached out to me through his team after I asked for public thoughts from renewables developers about their uncertain futures given all the action in Congress around the Inflation Reduction Act. Jetty had a more optimistic tone than I’ve heard from other folks, partially because of the structure of his business – which is actually why I wanted to include his feelings in this week’s otherwise quite gloomy newsletter.
The following conversation has been lightly edited for clarity. Shall we?
To start, how does it feel to be developing solar in this uncertain environment around the IRA?
There’s a lot of media out there that’s oftentimes trying to interpret something that’s incredibly complex and legalese to begin with, so it’s difficult to really know what the exact impacts are in the first place or what the macroeconomic impacts would be from the policy shifts that would happen from the legislation being discussed right now.
But I’ll be honest, the thing I reinforce the most right now with our team is that you cannot argue with solar being the lowest cost form of electrical generation in the United States and it’s the fastest source of power generation to be brought online. So there’s a reason why, regardless of what happens, our industry isn’t going to go away. We’ve dealt with all kinds of policy changes and I’ve been doing this since 2002. We’ve had lots of changes that have been disruptive to the industry.
You can argue some of the things that are being discussed are more disruptive. But there’s lots of things we’ve faced. Even the pandemic and the fallout on inflation and labor. We’ve navigated through hard times before.
What’s been the tangible impact to your business from this uncertainty?
I would say it has shifted our focus. We sell electricity to our customers that are both commercial customers, using that power behind the meter and on site for their own facilities, or we’re selling electricity to utilities, or virtually through the grid. Right now we’ve shifted some of our strategy toward the acquisition of operating assets instead of buying projects from other developers that could be more impacted by the uncertainty or have economics that are more sensitive to the timing and uncertainty that could come out of the policy. It’s had an impact on our business but, back to my earlier comment, the industry is so big at this point that we’re seeing lots of opportunity for us to provide value to an investor.
As a company that works in different forms of solar development – from small-scale utility to commercial to community solar – do you see any changes in terms of what projects are developed if what’s in the House bill becomes law?
I’m not seeing anything at the moment.
I think most of the activity I’ve been involved in is waiting for this to settle. The disruption is the volatile nature, the uncertainty. We need certainty. Any business needs certainty to plan and operate effectively. But I’m honestly not seeing anything that’s having that impact right now in terms of where investment is flowing, whether its utility scale to the smaller behind-the-meter commercial scale we support in certain markets.
We are seeing it in the residential side of the solar industry. Those are more concerning, because you only have a short amount of time to claim the [investment tax credit] ITC for a residential system.