Sign In or Create an Account.

By continuing, you agree to the Terms of Service and acknowledge our Privacy Policy

Climate

This Is Already One of the Worst Wildfire Pollution Events in U.S. History

Tuesday was a top three day for wildfire pollution, Stanford researchers have found. Wednesday will be worse.

Empire State
Getty Images

UPDATE JUNE 8 AT 2:15 PM ET: Researchers have found that Wednesday was the worst day for wildfire pollution in American history. Read more.

Today — Wednesday, June 7 — is virtually guaranteed to be among the worst two days for wildfire smoke in American history, and possibly the worst day ever, a new and rapid analysis conducted by Stanford researchers suggests.

The research found that Tuesday was the third-worst day in American history for exposure to wildfire smoke on a population-weighted basis. Given that conditions have been worse on Wednesday than Tuesday, today is all but certain to rank even higher on the list, the researchers said. Not since California’s conflagrations in September 2020 — when the Bay Area clouded with soot and ash, and the sky over San Francisco turned flame-orange — have so many Americans been exposed to so much toxic wildfire smoke.

worst wildfire days chart.Stanford.

“It’s pretty off the charts,” Marshall Burke, an economist and sustainability professor at Stanford who led the research, told me. “It’s pretty historic. We’re talking about the most populated parts of the country just getting hammered.”

The new analysis drives home the importance of Thursday’s mass air-pollution event. From New York City to Norfolk, Virginia, and from Detroit to Ottawa, record-breaking levels of microscopic soot and ash canceled flights, concerts, and sporting events.

The new analysis looked at two variables: how intense the “dose” of wildfire smoke was, and how many people it affected. In essence, it focuses on the average of the American experience: On what days in history is a statistically random American likely to breathe the most wildfire smoke into their lungs? Tuesday and Wednesday of this week, it found, are likely among the top three to hold that distinction.

Although wildfire-driven air pollution reached higher concentrations in some parts of the West in 2020 and 2021, it never affected so many people, living in such a densely populated area. That is what makes this week different, Burke said. “It’s mainly due to the East Coast having so many people. It’s New York, Boston, D.C., Detroit. Out West, our cities are just smaller.”

Get the best of Heatmap directly in your inbox:

* indicates required

  • The finding also clarifies how much wildfire smoke the East Coast has already faced this year. As my colleague Jeva Lange showed, even before this week, East Coasters had faced worse wildfire-driven air pollution so far this year than Americans living out west. (That said, the Western fire season has only barely begun.)

    Burke and his colleagues looked at data from 2006 to 2023. But given that the American population has grown, and wildfires have expanded in size, it is unlikely that wildfire smoke affected more people than before the current period.

    The team cannot formally establish that today, Wednesday, was among the worst days in American history until the day ends and records become available. But the intensity of pollution already observed virtually guarantees that Wednesday is worse than Tuesday, Burke said: “I would be shocked if today doesn’t move up the list.”

    Speaking in a separate conversation on Tuesday, Burke mused that some photos of New York’s ashy sky reminded him of California’s hellish wildfire experience three years earlier. “This looks like you're in California in August 2020 … not in New York City in early June,” he said at the time.

    As his analysis later showed, he was more right than he realized.

    We’ll update this story as more data becomes available for today.

    You’re out of free articles.

    Subscribe today to experience Heatmap’s expert analysis 
of climate change, clean energy, and sustainability.
    To continue reading
    Create a free account or sign in to unlock more free articles.
    or
    Please enter an email address
    By continuing, you agree to the Terms of Service and acknowledge our Privacy Policy
    AM Briefing

    AM Briefing: Greenland Dreamin’

    On AI forecasts, California bills, and Trump’s fusion push

    Greenland.
    Heatmap Illustration/Getty Images

    Current conditions: The intense rain pummeling Southern California since the start of the new year has subsided, but not before boosting Los Angeles’ total rainfall for the wet season that started in October a whopping 343% above the historical average • The polar vortex freezing the Great Lakes and Northeast is moving northward, allowing temperatures in Chicago to rise nearly 20 degrees Fahrenheit • The heat wave in southern Australia is set to send temperatures soaring above 113 degrees.


    Keep reading...Show less
    Yellow
    Energy

    Is Burying a Nuclear Reactor Worth It?

    Deep Fission says that building small reactors underground is both safer and cheaper. Others have their doubts.

    Burying an atom.
    Heatmap Illustration/Getty Images

    In 1981, two years after the accident at Three Mile Island sent fears over the potential risks of atomic energy skyrocketing, Westinghouse looked into what it would take to build a reactor 2,100 feet underground, insulating its radioactive material in an envelope of dirt. The United States’ leading reactor developer wasn’t responsible for the plant that partially melted down in Pennsylvania, but the company was grappling with new regulations that came as a result of the incident. The concept went nowhere.

    More than a decade later, the esteemed nuclear physicist Edward Teller resurfaced the idea in a 1995 paper that once again attracted little actual interest from the industry — that is, until 2006, when Lowell Wood, a physicist at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, proposed building an underground reactor to Bill Gates, who considered but ultimately abandoned the design at his nuclear startup, TerraPower.

    Keep reading...Show less
    Green
    AM Briefing

    AM Briefing: Cheap Crude

    On energy efficiency rules, Chinese nuclear, and Japan’s first offshore wind

    An oil field.
    Heatmap Illustration/Getty Images

    Current conditions: Warm air headed northward up the East Coast is set to collide with cold air headed southward over the Great Lakes and Northeast, bringing snowfall followed by higher temperatures later in the week • A cold front is stirring up a dense fog in northwest India • Unusually frigid Arctic air in Europe is causing temperatures across northwest Africa to plunge to double-digit degrees below seasonal norms, with Algiers at just over 50 degrees Fahrenheit this week.


    THE TOP FIVE

    1. Crude prices fell in 2025 amid oversupply, complicating Venezuela’s future

    A chart showing average monthly spot prices for Brent crude oil throughout 2025.EIA

    Keep reading...Show less
    Blue