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Economy

The Clean Hydrogen Rules Will Be Delayed Until at Least October

The Biden administration will miss a deadline in the Inflation Reduction Act, as it tries to regulate one of the climate law’s most generous —and contentious — tax credits.

Janet Yellen and hydrogen infrastructure.
Heatmap Illustration/Getty Images

The Biden administration is planning to publish rules governing one of the most generous subsidies in its new climate law — a tax credit for clean hydrogen — no earlier than October, missing a key deadline inscribed in the law, according to a source familiar with the process.

The rules revolve around one of the most contentious questions that has emerged after the law’s passage: How do you know that your electricity is clean? The debate has divided climate activists, hydrogen companies, renewable developers, and nuclear-power plant owners.

The ultimate answer could — by one estimate — determine the flow of more than $100 billion in federal subsidies over the next two decades.

The new rules could come as late as December, the source said, missing the deadline by as much as four months. The climate law required the Treasury Department publish guidance about the hydrogen tax credit within one year of its passage. Because the law was signed on August 16, 2022, that deadline will arrive next week.

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  • Hydrogen is key to the Biden administration’s climate strategy. The colorless, odorless gas has the potential to replace fossil fuels in industries that are otherwise difficult to make climate-friendly, including steelmaking, shipping, aviation, and fertilizer production. While hydrogen does not emit any carbon when burned, today most hydrogen is made from natural gas in a carbon-intensive process.

    The new tax credit is designed to make cleaner production methods more competitive, and it offers the largest reward — $3 per kilogram of hydrogen — to companies that can make hydrogen without emitting almost any greenhouse gases at all.

    The issue before the Treasury Department is how companies should calculate their greenhouse gas emissions when trying to qualify for this credit. But there’s no universally accepted way to do this accounting. That is an especially big problem for a method of producing hydrogen called electrolysis, which uses electricity to split water into its constituent hydrogen and oxygen atoms. The process is incredibly energy-intensive, but it can be emissions-free, as long as the electricity comes from a carbon-free source.

    A major debate has erupted among energy companies, environmental groups, and academics over what should qualify as carbon-free electricity. Earlier this year, researchers from Princeton University’s ZERO Lab warned that the Treasury Department’s decision could risk a major increase in emissions, underwritten by billions of public dollars, if not crafted carefully. Most — but not all — of the nascent clean hydrogen industry has pushed back on their analysis, warning that onerous rules would “devastate the economics” of clean hydrogen.

    As we’ve previously reported, the complicated tax credit could transform the nuclear power sector and America’s energy economy writ large. It could also drive the formation of a booming domestic clean-hydrogen industry — but only if the Biden administration gets it right.

    Read more about the hydrogen rules:

    The Green Hydrogen Debate Is Much Bigger Than Hydrogen

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    Q&A

    How Has the Rise of AI Changed the Odds of a Permitting Deal?

    Catching up with the American Council on Renewable Energy’s Ray Long.

    Ray Long.
    Heatmap Illustration/Getty Images

    Today’s chat is with Ray Long, CEO of the American Council on Renewable Energy. We first discussed the odds of permitting reform a year and a half ago, for one of the first Q&As in The Fight. Flash forward and we’re still in the same situation, but now also wrestling with added demand for electricity to power data centers. I wanted to talk again about whether he thought the rise of artificial intelligence would increase the odds of some federal deal happening any time soon. The result: a wide-reaching conversation about the future of the electric grid, the struggles to win community buy-in and the sclerotic nature of the U.S. Congress.

    The following conversation was lightly edited for clarity.

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    Hotspots

    Ohio Is Waging a Multi-Front Assault Against Data Centers

    Plus more of week’s biggest development fights.

    The United States.
    Heatmap Illustration/Getty Images

    1. Ohio — This state might just be the most important flashpoint in the national fight over advanced energy and tech infrastructure.

    • Ohio is now home to one of the fiercest retaliatory strikes against the data center sector from a statewide elected Republican. Last week, Governor Mike DeWine said he was pausing access to the state’s tax exemption request program for all data centers (sans two projects that squeaked in under the wire).
    • In the state legislature, a new select committee on data center development got an earful from aggrieved anti-data center voices this week at their only hearing for public comment. Legislation and regulation feels all but inevitable. As lawmakers debate potential legislation, grassroots organizers opposed to development are gathering signatures in hope of landing a moratorium vote on the ballot this November.
    • Meanwhile, the state Supreme Court struck down permits for the biggest solar project in the state: Oak Run, a large agri-voltaics project backed by a Shell subsidiary.
    • As I previously wrote, the court challenge against Oak Run was a potential harbinger of the extent local opposition would be considered a proxy for “the public interest,” a legal term of art crucial to state energy and power permitting.
    • In a decision overruling the Ohio Power Siting Board, justices wrote the board’s “rationale” on this public interest question “misses the mark” because it failed to include photos or sketches addressing visual concerns raised by locals. The board will now have to reconsider Oak Run and compel new analysis specific to surrounding sightlines.
    • Conflict over large industrial development in Ohio was eminently predictable. Heatmap’s polling and modeling has consistently shown an Obama-Trump voting flip like the one Ohio landed in 2016 as a predictor for potential opposition to building renewable energy. Same goes for the fight over development on farmland — and Ohio is flush with prospective ag property. Knowing renewables-hostile areas are harder for data centers, this would be a likely no-go zone for developers if it wasn’t for existing fiber-optic cable networks.

    2. Laramie County, Wyoming — The Cowboy State’s capital city is one of the few to reject a data center moratorium. But tech companies. don’t get your hopes up too high.

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    Data center protesters.
    Heatmap Illustration/Getty Images

    The national AI data center moratorium has momentum.

    As I’ve been documenting for months here at The Fight, data center opposition is surging across the country. Our latest Heatmap Pro poll puts some very hard numbers behind that picture. More than 7 in 10 Americans oppose new data center construction near where they live, up from just over 4 in 10 last fall. Part of what’s driving that opposition: More than half of respondents hold data centers largely responsible for rising electricity prices, and nearly half are pessimistic about the effect artificial intelligence will have on their lives.

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